Tag Archives: SC-1

Party Division Changes in US House; Credible Challenger in FL-6; Challenger to Rep. Mace Drops Out; Legal Wranglings in New Jersey

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 2, 2024

House

House: Party Division Changes — There is a great deal of confusion as to where the House party division currently stands with the large number of resignations and related special elections soon to occur. Because of this unusual situation the numbers are going to change frequently as we head through the June primaries.

Right now, the House stands at 218R — 213D. There are four vacancies, three Republican seats — ex-Reps. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA-20), Ken Buck (R-CO-4), and Bill Johnson (R-OH-6) and one Democratic (Brian Higgins (D-NY-26). Rep. Gallagher will resign on April 19. Because Gallagher is staying past April 9, the replacement special election will be concurrent with the general election. The count will then recede to 217R — 213D.

The first special election is April 30: Higgins, NY-26. The Democrats are a virtual lock to win. Doing so will make the division count 217R — 214D.
The next special is May 21: McCarthy, CA-20. Republicans will win. The division count will then move to 218R — 214D.
The Ohio special election is June 11: Johnson, OH-6. Republicans will win in the person of state Sen. Michael Rulli (R-Salem). The division count goes to 219R — 214D.
The Colorado special is June 25: Buck, CO-4. The Republicans will win with a caretaker candidate named Greg Lopez, the former mayor of the city of Parker. The division count will then move to 220R — 214D.

FL-6: Prominent NAACP Leader to Challenge Rep. Waltz — Three-term Florida US Rep. Michael Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) has drawn a credible challenger for the first time since his original election in 2018. Marion County NAACP president and pastor James Stockton (D) announced his candidacy yesterday as the Florida candidate filing deadline fast approaches on April 26 in conjunction with the state’s Aug. 20 primary election.

Marion County is the second largest population entity in Florida’s 6th District. Though Stockton may be the most credible of Rep. Waltz’s challengers, his chances of upsetting the incumbent are slim to say the least. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-6 as R+28. Former President Donald Trump recorded a 61-38 percent victory percentage here in 2020, the third strongest of Florida’s 20 Republican congressional districts.

SC-1: Ex-Chief of Staff Drops Bid Against Rep. Mace — Earlier this winter, news was made when Dan Hanlon, the former chief of staff to South Carolina US Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) resigned his position and announced he would oppose his former boss in the coming Republican primary. Just before candidate filing expired yesterday, Hanlon closed the committee he filed with the Federal Election Commission and chose not to enter the race.

Perhaps the main reason for his action is the presence of a serious opponent, former South Carolina cabinet secretary Catherine Templeton who clearly is capable to offering a credible Republican alternative to Rep. Mace. Templeton also announced that she has topped the $500,000 mark in fundraising after just eight weeks on the campaign trail.

A third contender, non-profit executive Bill Young, while not a threat to outpace either Mace or Templeton, could attract enough votes to force the leader below the 50 percent mark. Should that happen, the top two finishers would then advance to a June 25 runoff election to determine the nominee. This will be a primary race to watch on June 11.

States

New Jersey: Caveat to Court Ruling — Last week, we reported on a New Jersey court ruling that agreed with Rep. Andy Kim’s (D-Moorestown) lawsuit over the local political parties having the power to award favorable ballot positions at the expense of their primary opponents. The judge agreed and issued an injunction that will stop the practice at least for this election.

Yesterday, however, the judge clarified his ruling in saying that the injunction applies only to the Democratic primary to which the plaintiff, Kim, who is now the prohibitive favorite to win the Senate Democratic primary regardless of where is appears on the ballot, limited his complaint.

Christie Says No to No Labels; Florida, South Carolina Redistricting; Quick Candidate Filing in New Hampshire

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 29, 2024

President

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) says no to No Labels. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

No Labels: Christie Says No — The No Labels Party is seemingly having a difficult time either choosing a presidential nominee or having someone accept their offer to run on their ballot line. A story emerged that former New Jersey governor and ex-presidential candidate Chris Christie (R), after being in negotiations with No Labels, has decided not to pursue entering the 2024 presidential general election as this party’s standard bearer.

Christie, in announcing his decision, said “I also believe that if there is not a pathway to win and if my candidacy in any way, shape or form would help Donald Trump become president again, then it is not the way forward.”

The No Labels membership has voted to field a presidential ticket, but so far, the leadership has not brought forth a national candidate pairing.

House

Florida Redistricting: Federal Judicial Panel Rejects Plaintiffs’ Arguments — A three-judge federal panel has rejected a lawsuit claiming that the Sunshine State congressional map violates the 14th and 15th Amendments to the US Constitution. The ruling’s result means that the current plan will remain in place.

The Florida map, from which the district electorates chose 20 Republicans and eight Democrats, is the Republicans’ strongest, nationally. Therefore, not changing this plan boosts GOP chances of maintaining their small majority.

SC-1: District Looks to Stand — With the South Carolina candidate filing deadline upon us on April 1 and the US Supreme Court so far not ruling on the redistricting case before them, the original three-judge panel has taken action. The federal jurists who initially declared the Palmetto State’s 1st District (Rep. Nancy Mace-R) a racial gerrymander ruled yesterday that the current configuration can stand for the 2024 election. The panel acted because SCOTUS has failed to issue their decision after hearing oral arguments and considering that the filing deadline is Monday.

The fact that the high court has not yet ruled suggests that the district will stand. Though the lawsuit was targeted to the racial complexion of the 1st District, changing this seat will invariably alter at least one other. South Carolina has seven districts that are split in in a 6R:1D ratio.

NH-2: First Candidate Announcement — A day after six-term New Hampshire US Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) announced that she will not seek re-election, a former gubernatorial nominee came forward to declare for the seat. Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern (D), who held now-Gov. Chris Sununu (R) to an initial 49-47 percent victory in 2016, officially threw his hat into the congressional political ring.

New Hampshire’s 2nd is a politically marginal district that leans Democratic. Republicans will certainly contest the seat, but the quick Van Ostern move suggests he will become the early favorite not only for the Democratic nomination, but to hold the seat in November.

The New Hampshire filing deadline is not until June 14, so potential candidates have considerable time to make their decisions. Crowded fields are expected in both parties, but possibly less so for the Democrats now that Van Ostern has declared his intentions so quickly.

Four Primaries Today; Fong Advances; Trump Endorses Nancy Mace; Indiana Governor’s Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 12, 2024

President

Primaries Today: Four States — Voters go to the polls today in Georgia, Hawaii (Republican Caucus only), Mississippi (full primary), and Washington.

In all, there are 161 Republican delegates at stake in the four states, and with former President Donald Trump already having 1,078 bound delegates of the 1,215 he needs to score a first ballot victory, securing just over 85 percent of the available delegates tonight will allow him to clinch “presumptive nominee” status. This means he will have enough bound delegates to claim a first ballot victory at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee during mid-July. For President Joe Biden, it appears he will clinch “presumptive nominee” status next week in the March 19 primaries.

In Mississippi, a quiet night is expected regarding the full ballot primary. Sen. Roger Wicker (R) faces two Republican challengers, including state Rep. Dan Eubanks (R-Walls), but there is little doubt the incumbent will be renominated outright for a fourth term tonight. In House races, each of the state’s four incumbents: Reps. Trent Kelly (R-Saltillo/ Tupelo), Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton), Michael Guest (R-Brandon/Jackson), and Mike Ezell (R-Pascagoula), are seeking re-election and only Ezell faces an intra-party challenge.

The first-term congressman, who unseated then-Rep. Steven Palazzo in the 2022 Republican nomination battle, faces two Republican opponents. Businessman Carl Boyanton, who finished fifth in the 2022 congressional primary with just 6.2 percent of the vote, returns for a re-match with Ezell, and retired Army veteran Michael McGill joins them. Rep. Ezell is expected to easily win renomination tonight, thus avoiding an April 2 runoff election. Should any candidate fail to reach majority support in the initial primary, a runoff election then becomes mandatory.

House

CA-20: Fong Officially Advances — NBC News is projecting that state Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) will advance into the regular general election from the still unfolding California jungle primary. Fong has 38.8 percent of the votes counted with approximately 26 percent of the ballots still outstanding.

Ironically, the group of candidates may be on the ballot again, in the March 19 special election to immediately replace resigned former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield), before the two regular general election participants are officially certified. Under the laborious California ballot counting process, the state still has another 31 days to count and then certify the final results.

Currently in second position is Tulare County Sheriff Mike Bourdeaux (R) with 25.8 percent, just ahead of Democratic educator and 2022 congressional nominee Marissa Wood who posts 22.0 percent of the vote. A total of 11 candidates are on the jungle primary ballot.

Should Sheriff Bourdeaux hold second place, a double-Republican regular general election will then occur in November. For the special election, with nine of the candidates competing, including Fong and Bourdeaux along with Wood, the special election result is expected to produce a similar result to the one just witnessed.

SC-1: Trump Endorses Rep. Mace — In 2022, former President Donald Trump endorsed former state Rep. Katie Arrington against Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), saying the incumbent is “a terrible candidate,” and she was renominated with only 53 percent of the vote.

Trump is singing a different tune for the 2024 election. Yesterday, he announced his support for Rep. Mace as she again faces a serious primary election opponent. Saying she is “a strong conservative voice for South Carolina’s 1st District,” Trump now endorses Mace as she faces former Haley cabinet secretary Catherine Templeton, who is campaigning from the congresswoman’s right political flank. Three other Republicans, including the representative’s former chief of staff, are also announced candidates.

If no one receives majority support in the June 11 primary election, a short schedule runoff will occur on June 25. The US Supreme Court is also considering a lawsuit that would declare this district an illegal racial gerrymander. If the court rules such, the 1st CD will have to be redrawn and that could lead to a postponed primary.

Governor

Indiana: Sen. Braun Way Up in Governor’s Poll — A new Emerson College statewide Indiana Republican primary survey (March 2-5; 526 likely Indiana Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds US Sen. Mike Braun (R) cruising in his quest for the state’s open governorship. The Emerson data finds Sen. Braun posting a 34-7-7-5 percent split over Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, venture capitalist Eric Doden, and former State Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers.

This data tracks with reported internal Braun data from the Mark It Red polling firm that records a 41-12 percent split over Lt. Gov. Crouch. The Indiana plurality primary is scheduled for May 7. The eventual Republican nominee will become a prohibitive favorite to then win the general election in November.

Fong’s Fight; Rep. Jamaal Bowman in Primary Battle; Another US House Member to Resign; More Primary Trouble for Rep. Nancy Mace

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 1, 2024

House

California Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) / Photo by Kevin Sanders for California Globe

CA-20: Candidates Qualify for Special Election — The California Secretary of State has attested that nine candidates have qualified for the March 19 special election to replace resigned former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield). Controversy, however, still surrounds the favorite to win the electoral contest, Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield).

Since Fong had already filed for re-election before Rep. McCarthy resigned from the Congress, the Secretary of State ruled that he could not enter the congressional race because such action would violate a California election law that prohibits individuals from simultaneously running for multiple offices. Fong sued over the administrative ruling and won in Superior Court. Therefore, he has been slated as a congressional candidate while not being removed from the state assembly ballot. The state is appealing the court ruling, so even if Fong wins the special election as expected, he could be hampered by a future court decision.

Also qualifying are Tulare County Sheriff Mike Bourdeaux (R), and seven other Republicans, Democrats, and No Party Preference candidates. If no one receives majority support on March 19, the top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation will advance to a special general election on May 21. The regular election cycle primary is scheduled for March 5, featuring most of these candidates. The special election winner will serve the balance of Rep. McCarthy’s final term.

NY-16: Serious Primary Challenge Unfolding — New York US Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers), while receiving good news that the House Ethics Committee is not going to pursue further action against the congressman for pulling a fire alarm in a House office building, is now facing a backlash over social media posts he made after the 9/11 attack. The posts referred to theories that the US government orchestrated the terrorist massacre, and a ring of globalist bankers were actively involved in the conspiracy.

“Well over a decade ago, as I was debating diving into a doctoral degree, I explored a wide range of books, films, and articles across a wide swath of the political spectrum and processed my thoughts in a personal blog that few people ever read. I don’t believe anything that these cranks have said, and my life’s work has proven that.”

While Bowman may survive these controversies in the short term, he faces a very difficult Democratic primary election in June. His principal opponent, Westchester County Executive George Latimer is reporting a dollars raised figure of $1.4 million since his declaration of candidacy in early December. Latimer is a veteran campaigner, having been elected four times to the state Assembly, once to the state Senate, and twice to his current position. Therefore, Rep. Bowman must be considered as a highly vulnerable incumbent as he heads into a serious renomination fight.

NY-26: Rep. Higgins to Resign Friday — New York US Rep. Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo), who announced back in November that he would resign the House seat he has held for almost 20 years to take a position in the non-profit sector back in Buffalo, issued a statement saying that he will leave Congress on Friday. Once the seat is officially vacant, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) will have 10 days to call a special election for a period no less than 70 and no greater than 80 days from the scheduling announcement.

The local Democratic county chairmen have already chosen state Sen. Tim Kennedy (D-Buffalo) as the party’s special election nominee. Republicans are not likely to be competitive in the Buffalo anchored district which carries a partisan rating of D+18 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization. At this point, the local Republican county chairs have not announced a special election nominee.

SC-1: More Trouble for Rep. Mace — Earlier in the week, we reported that South Carolina US Rep. Nancy Mace’s (R-Charleston) former chief of staff, Dan Hanlon, had filed a campaign committee to challenge her in this year’s Republican primary. Now, a former Nikki Haley gubernatorial cabinet official, Catherine Templeton, announced that she, too, will oppose the congresswoman.

Templeton, the former director of the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control ran for governor in 2018 but finished third in the Republican primary, losing to Gov. Henry McMaster. As lieutenant governor in 2017, McMaster ascended to the governorship when Haley was appointed UN Ambassador.

With the US Supreme Court still deciding whether the lawsuit challenging the 1st District as a racial gerrymander is valid, there is still a possibility that this seat could be redrawn before the candidates appear on the ballot. The South Carolina primary is June 11, with a runoff scheduled for June 29 if no candidate receives majority support. Unless the district is ordered changed, the eventual Republican nominee becomes a prohibitive favorite in the general election.

RFK Jr. Moves Closer to Presidential Run; Gillibrand’s Ploy re: Cuomo; House Challengers; Pa. Replay?

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 15, 2023

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: Files Presidential Committee — There has been much speculation that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will soon join the Democratic presidential campaign as an opponent to President Biden. Over the weekend, he took a definitive step toward becoming a candidate when officially filing a presidential exploratory committee with the Federal Election Commission. This is typically the first step most individuals take before they formally enter a race.

Kennedy, much more conservative than the typical Democratic voter, is not expected to be a major obstacle for President Biden to overcome as the incumbent prepares to seek renomination.

Senate

New York: Sen. Gillibrand’s Fundraising Ploy — The Politics1 organization and other political media sites are running with a story saying that New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is telling donors that she is concerned ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo may challenge her in next year’s Democratic primary. She sites the fact that he has $9 million remaining in his gubernatorial campaign account, which is $4 million more than she reported on her year-end Federal Election Commission financial disclosure.

Sen. Gillibrand’s play in making these statements is largely a fundraising ploy to encourage liberal donors to support her campaign.

Even if Cuomo, who was forced to resign the governorship in 2021, challenged her, he would immediately begin as an underdog. Secondly, though he still may have approximately $9 million in his state campaign account, a combination of complicated state and federal election laws may not allow a full transfer of those funds into a US Senate campaign. Therefore, the idea of a Cuomo Senate challenge, at least at this time, should largely be discounted.

Pennsylvania: Here They Go Again — A new Public Policy Polling survey (March 9-10; 616 likely Pennsylvania Republican primary voters) finds state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R-Chambersburg), the 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee who proved non-competitive in the general election, again leading in a statewide Republican primary.

In a hypothetical US Senate nomination contest, PPP finds Sen. Mastriano topping 2022 candidate and former hedge fund CEO David McCormick and 2022 Senate candidate Kathy Barnette, 39-21-11 percent. If the race was a two-way between Mastriano and McCormick, the former would lead 42-28 percent. Should these numbers hold, such a primary result would again nullify any realistic chance Republicans have of upsetting Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) in November.

House

FL-25: Retired General Announces Against Rep. Wasserman Schultz — Weston City Commissioner Chris Eddy (R), a retired Air Force general and former FBI analyst, announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination with the hope of facing Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston) in the general election. He first must get past 2022 nominee Carla Spalding, however.

The 25th District is reliably Democratic – FiveThirtyEight rates the seat D+18; Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 62.0D – 36.8R – which means the chances of scoring an upset here are slim. Still, Rep. Wasserman Schultz showed some weakness in the 2022 election against Spalding, winning only a 55-45 percent victory, which proved the closest of her 10 career congressional elections.

SC-1: Rep. Mace Challenger Emerges — Museum founder Michael Moore (D), a relative of Civil War figure Robert Smalls, announced that he will enter the Democratic primary to challenge two-term Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston).

There is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding this race because earlier this year a South Carolina three-judge federal panel declared the 1st District an unconstitutional racial gerrymander district. This means, unless the SC ruling becomes moot when the US Supreme Court decides the related Alabama racial gerrymandering case, the district will be re-drawn.

A new version under the South Carolina judicial directive should make this seat more Democratic, but a considerable amount of time will likely elapse if and before the seat is reconfigured. Therefore, it is difficult to draw any current conclusions about the 2024 SC-1 campaign.

Ohio Senate, Maine Gubernatorial Races Tight

By Jim Ellis — June 3, 2022

Senate

Ohio: First Post Primary Poll Tight — The Ohio primary was May 3, and now we see the first public general election poll testing US Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown) and Republican best-selling author J.D. Vance. Suffolk University surveyed the Ohio electorate (May 22-24; 500 likely Ohio general election voters; live interview) and finds Vance jumping out to a slight three-point lead, 42-39 percent. The poll’s tight results is not unusual for an Ohio race, which typically are rated as toss-ups until the final two weeks.

In other questions, 42.6 percent of the respondents answered that either the economy or inflation was their most important issue, with abortion registering third at 11.6 percent. Even though he was leading the race, Vance’s favorability index was surprisingly upside down at 35:38 percent positive to negative. Rep. Ryan held a 40:23 percent positive ratio. President Biden fell to 39:56 percent. A total of 49 percent said they want to change the direction in which President Biden is leading the nation, while 24 percent said they want to support the President’s leadership.

Governor

Maine: Gov. Mills Holds Tepid Edge — Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D), who has seen her approval ratings drop from strong heights of late, still tops former Gov. Paul LePage (R) in a combined new statewide survey from Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R) and Impact Research (D) for AARP (May 10-13; 1,050 likely Maine voters with a representative sample of 500 likely voters; live interview & text), but the respondents have a sour outlook regarding the future. While Gov. Mills holds a 51-46 percent edge on the ballot test against ex-Gov. LePage, her lead drops to just one point, 44-43 percent, among those who say they are definitely committed to one of the candidates.

By a whopping margin of 18:82 percent, however, the respondents believe the country is on the wrong track. The state of Maine is also viewed negatively in a 43:56 percent ratio. President Biden’s job approval is upside-down at 45:54 percent. Gov. Mills’ job approval ratio barely remains in positive territory at 49:47 percent favorable to unfavorable.

House

MI-3: Rep. Meijer Trails in New Survey — Michigan freshman Rep. Peter Meijer (R-Grand Rapids) fared poorly in redistricting, taking his Grand Rapids-anchored district from a R+9 rating according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization to a D+3 with 50 percent new territory. A new Public Policy Polling survey (May 25-26; 676 registered MI-3 voters; interactive voice response system) shows Rep. Meijer falling behind Democrat Hillary Scholten, his 2020 general election opponent, by a 39-37 percent clip. The change in district lines and the new partisan complexion certainly makes this result believable. The 2022 MI-3 race will be rated a toss-up with no clear favorite.

SC-1: GOP Primary Tightening — A new Trafalgar Group survey (May 26-29; 556 likely SC-1 Republican primary voters; multiple data collection sources) sees the Republican primary challenge of former state representative and 2018 congressional nominee Katie Arrington coming within potential upset range of freshman Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston). The Trafalgar organization sees the race closing to 46-41 percent, which is much different than a Basswood Research poll taken around the same period (May 21-22; 400 likely SC-1 Republican primary voters). The latter poll found the congresswoman taking a commanding 44-24 percent lead. The South Carolina primary is scheduled for June 14.

House 2020 Overview

By Jim Ellis

Dec. 3, 2019 — Now that two states have already completed their congressional candidate filing (Alabama and Arkansas) and five more are scheduled for December including Illinois, which closed yesterday, it is time to begin to ascertain where US House politics might reasonably stand right now.

California (Dec. 6), Texas (Dec. 9), Ohio (Dec. 11), and North Carolina (Dec. 20 – on hold due to court order), are the other states with candidate deadlines this month. At the end of December, the seven filed states including North Carolina, would account for 129 congressional district candidate slates.

Currently, the party division yields four vacant House seats — two from each party. Of the 431 seats with representation, Democrats hold 233 and Republicans have 197, along with one Independent — Michigan Congressman Justin Amash (I-Cascade Township/ Grand Rapids), who left the Republican Party earlier this year.

Comparing the current ratings for each district against where the seats stood a year before the 2018 election finds that 82 political situations have changed ratings with most moving away from the Republican column and toward the Democrats, but not in all cases.

Currently, 75 districts fall into either the Toss-up, Lean Democrat, or Lean Republican categories. This assumes that the four vacancies — CA-25 (Katie Hill-D), MD-7 (Elijah Cummings-D), NY-27 (Chris Collins-R), WI-7 (Sean Duffy-R) — all remain with their current party in upcoming special elections.

Adding another assumption concerning the House outlook involves the newly adopted court-ordered North Carolina congressional map, the third of this decade. On its surface, these latest district boundaries would net the Democrats at least two seats, those that Reps. George Holding (R-Raleigh) and Mark Walker (R-Greensboro) currently represent.

Both parties are lodging new legal challenges to the map, and the state’s Dec. 20 candidate filing deadline is on hold for the US House candidates until the legal situation is resolved. For the purposes of this analysis, the new North Carolina map is inserted into the national overlay, thus increasing the Democratic conference by two seats.

Of the 75 lean and toss-up seats, 36 are currently in the Democratic column and 38 lie in Republican hands. The remaining seat belongs to Independent Rep. Amash. Looking at how the seats might break right now, it appears that 33 are rated as Lean Democratic with 30 categorized as Lean Republican. The remaining dozen, including the Amash seat, are considered toss-ups.

Continue reading →