Tag Archives: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

The Kennedy Factor in Alaska; Maryland Gov. Moore Endorses Senate Candidate; Malinowski’s Response; Candidate Search in PA-10

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 26, 2023

President

Alaska: First Poll with Kennedy — The Alaska Survey Research firm tested the 2024 general election with, for the first time, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the questionnaire as an Independent candidate. Some have been saying that Kennedy on the ballot could force former President Donald Trump below 50 percent, which would jump-start a Ranked Choice Voting round. This could open the door to President Joe Biden winning Alaska even though he would be nowhere close to victory in the initial vote.

According to the ASR data (Oct. 13-18; 1,375 likely Alaska general election voters; online) Trump is leading the field but with just 37 percent support. President Biden follows with 29 percent, while Kennedy draws 17 percent. In an initial test without Kennedy, Trump would lead President Biden 45-37 percent. Therefore, both candidates would yield 8 percent support to Kennedy. The key here for Trump is making sure he does not fall below the 50 percent threshold, and this poll suggests he would be in danger of doing so if Kennedy continues to remain relatively strong.

Senate

Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D)

Maryland: Gov. Moore Endorses Senate Candidate — Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D) involved himself in what promises to be a hotly contested open Democratic primary to replace retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D). Maryland’s voting history suggests that Sen. Cardin’s successor will be found in the Democratic primary, as Republicans will have little chance to win a Maryland statewide race in a presidential election year.

Gov. Moore announced that he is supporting Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks for the party nomination. Her chief opponent is US representative and Total Beverage chain founder, Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac). The Moore endorsement is a signal to the African American community, the base of the state’s Democratic Party, that they should unite behind Alsobrooks.

Maryland’s black population accounts for just under 32 percent of the state’s residents. In a Democratic primary, however, their size is significantly larger.

Rep. Trone has already put just under $10 million of his own money into his campaign account and is currently advertising in targeted markets. According to Trone’s latest campaign finance report, 98 percent of his money comes from him.

House

NJ-7: Ex-Rep. Malinowski Responds — Former two-term US Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) responded to a statewide op-ed piece asking him to challenge the man who unseated him in 2022, freshman US Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield).

While Malinowski has not publicly ruled out running again, his response to the piece suggests that he will not become a candidate. His quote: “I am very happy in my life right now and looking forward to the next challenge, not backward.” Currently in the Democratic primary are former State Department official Jason Blazakis and progressive left activist Sue Altman.

PA-10: New Democratic Leader — According to a new Public Policy Polling Democratic primary survey of Pennsylvania’s competitive 10th District (Oct. 16-17; 547 PA-10 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text), the respondents are looking for a new nominee to challenge US Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg).

The poll suggests that retired news anchor Janelle Stelson holds an early 33-20 percent edge over 2022 Democratic nominee and Harrisburg City Councilwoman Shamaine Daniels. In November, Daniels held Rep. Perry to a 54-46 percent victory. Her 27 years on the air in south-central Pennsylvania provides her with a substantial district-wide name identification advantage.

Expect this race to again be competitive, but Rep. Perry begins as the favorite for re-election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates PA-10 as R+9. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the seat as the 37th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

Polling Projects Electoral College Win for Trump; California Senate Jockeying; New Jerseyans Want Menendez Out; New Candidate in MN-2; GOP Candidate Emerges in NC

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 23, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump

Trump’s Numbers: Polling Finds 291 Electoral Votes — According to a series of concurrently conducted independent polls, former President Donald Trump today would lead in enough states to provide him with 291 electoral votes, or 21 more than required to unseat President Joe Biden. Morning Consult, polling for Bloomberg News in various targeted states, projects Trump to leads in Arizona (+4), Georgia (+5), North Carolina (+4), Pennsylvania (+1), and Wisconsin (+2).

Last week, Emerson College also found Trump holding an advantage in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Simultaneously, the Marketing Resource Group saw Trump running seven points ahead in Michigan, but the more current Morning Consult/Bloomberg data shows the two candidates tied before the Wolverine State electorate. It is these aforementioned states that will make the difference nationally.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., now running as an Independent candidate, was not tested in the MC/Bloomberg survey series.

Senate

California: Sen. Butler Out; LA Anchorwoman I — Appointed California Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) announced yesterday that she will not run for a full term next year. Despite having more than a year in office after replacing the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), the early March 5 all-party jungle primary allowed her little time to begin competing against Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), Katie Porter (D-Irvine), Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) and former baseball great Steve Garvey (R), all of whom have a major head start in fundraising and campaign organization.

Los Angeles news anchor Christina Pascucci (D), on the other hand, became a late entry into the crowded US Senate contest, but said she is getting into the race “ … because I have to fight for what I believe is possible for California and for this country.” Pascucci describes herself as a “moderate Democrat.”

New Jersey: Constituents Favor Menendez Resignation — A newly released Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of the Garden State electorate (Aug. 6-14; 813 New Jersey adults; live interview & text) finds that 70 percent of the respondents, including 71 percent of Democrats, believe that indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D) should resign his seat even without him having a chance to defend himself in court.

So far, Sen. Menendez has been adamant about not resigning over the federal charges that accuse he, his wife, and several associates of engaging in bribery. While the senator is not forced to leave office, polls such as this clearly suggest that he will be a severe underdog in a June Democratic primary race against US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) and potentially several others.

House

MN-2: New Republican Candidate — The GOP leadership is making another attempt to unseat Minnesota US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), but this time it is likely they will have a new standard bearer. Former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab announced his congressional candidacy late last week. In the past two elections, Rep. Craig has defeated military veteran Tyler Kistner but with an average vote percentage of only 49.5 percent. Republicans hope a fresh face will be able to get the extra support to top the three term House incumbent.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates MN-2 as D+1, while the Daily Kos Elections site ranks the southeast Minnesota congressional district as the 14th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

Governor

North Carolina: New Republican Candidate Emerges — Attorney Bill Graham (R), who says he will invest at least $5 million of his own money into his statewide race, announced his candidacy for the state’s open governor’s position. Many in the Republican establishment doubt that the early front runner, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, can win a protracted campaign, which is sure to feature a barrage of attack ads portraying him as an extremist.

The leading Democratic nominee is Attorney General Josh Stein, but he only won the 2020 re-election campaign with 50.1 percent of the vote. Therefore, the Republicans will be competitive in the governor’s race regardless of who they nominate. Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Harris vs. Newsom for President?; Good/Bad News for Sen. Tester; Rep. Lesko to Retire; New Redistricting Maps in North Carolina; VA-10 News

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 20, 2023

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Democratic Poll: Harris vs. Newsom — Rumors have been rampant that the Democrats may somehow soon replace President Joe Biden as the party nominee. The Premise survey research company (Oct. 11-16; 1,417 registered US voters; 847 US Democratic registered voters; online) just tested the highly unlikely supposition.

The pollsters paired Vice President Kamala Harris against California Gov. Gavin Newsom. Many believe that Newsom would be Biden’s hypothetical replacement, but this first poll doesn’t concur. Premise reports a Harris lead over Newsom of 23-15 percent with a huge undecided factor. Expect President Biden to again become the Democratic nominee.

Marist College: First Three-Way Presidential Poll — Marist College, polling for National Public Radio (Oct. 11; 1,218 registered US voters), is the first survey research entity to release a Biden-Trump-Kennedy poll since Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced he would run in the general election as an Independent.

While the Biden-Trump ballot test found President Biden leading 49-46 percent, which is slightly better for the incumbent than most other current national polls, the addition of Kennedy sees the electorate break away from former President Donald Trump to the greater degree. The three-way result is 44-37-16 percent in favor of Biden. The big difference comes in the Independent sector. In a two-way, Independents break toward Trump, 49-43 percent. When Kennedy is added, the Trump-Biden-Kennedy split evolves to 34-33-29 percent, respectively.

Senate

Montana: Good News & Bad News for Sen. Tester — Emerson College surveyed the Montana electorate (Oct. 1-4; 447 registered Montana voters; multiple sampling techniques) as part of a series of polls conducted in several states. Here, we see Sen. Jon Tester (D) leading aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy (R) by a close 39-35 percent split. The good news for Sen. Tester in this poll is his maintaining a lead in a state the Republicans must win if they are to claim the Senate majority. The bad news is he fails to even reach the 40 percent plateau.

Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive), who most believe will enter the race, was not tested because he is not yet an announced candidate. Former Secretary of State Brad Johnson (R) just declared his own candidacy, so he, too, was not included.

House

AZ-8: Rep. Lesko (R) to Retire, Two New Candidate Possibilities — Three-plus term Arizona US Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria) announced that she will not seek re-election to her state’s 8th Congressional District next year.

The congresswoman indicated that time away from her family, including her 94-year-old mother, while expressing frustration saying, “it is hard to get anything done [in Congress],” led to the decision to bring her political career to a close.

Lesko first won election to the Arizona House of Representatives in 2008, before capturing a state Senate seat in 2014. After US Rep. Trent Franks (R) resigned from Congress, Lesko won the 2018 special election to become his successor. She was re-elected to a full term in the 2018 regular election and easily won two additional terms.

AZ-8 is reliably Republican. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+22. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 57.3R – 40.8D partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the 8th as the 77th most vulnerable district in the current 221-member GOP Conference. Former President Trump scored a 56.1 – 42.5 percent victory over President Biden here in 2020.

Lesko’s (R-Peoria) retirement announcement has potentially attracted two well known names from the 2022 election cycle. Attorney General nominee Abe Hamadeh, who lost the statewide race by just 280 votes of over 2.5 million votes cast, and US Senate nominee Blake Masters are among the Republicans being mentioned as potentially having interest in the newly open congressional seat.

North Carolina: New Redistricting Maps Released — Tar Heel State legislative leaders released two proposed congressional maps for legislators to consider. Both would improve Republican prospects and likely break the current 7D-7R map into a plan that would largely benefit the GOP.

Each map would endanger three Democratic incumbents: Reps. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro), Wiley Nickel (D-Cary), and Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte). The first map would likely return a 10R-4D split, while the second plan could conceivably bring the Republicans a 11R-3D division.

The legislators will now have the opportunity to debate the map proposals, consolidate the draws into one map, and amend the bills. Once the legislature passes a final plan, expect the Democrats to sue. The state Supreme Court will likely have to make a final ruling, but this is a much different judicial panel from the one that continued to reject the legislature’s intent during the past decade.

In 2022, Republicans captured a majority on the North Carolina Supreme Court, reversing the Democrats’ 4-3 edge. The new court features five Republicans and two Democrats. Getting to the US Supreme Court is a much more difficult exercise because SCOTUS has generally made the state Supreme Courts the redistricting final arbiter.

VA-10: Del. Filler-Corn Switches to House Race — Former state House Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn (D-Springfield), who was ousted as minority leader after the Democrats lost the state House majority in the 2021 election, has altered her future political path. Originally saying she was not running for re-election to the state House of Delegates in order to prepare a run for governor in 2025, Filler-Corn announced that she now won’t run statewide but will instead enter the 2024 open 10th Congressional District race.

Incumbent Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-Leesburg) is retiring due to health considerations. The 10th District will remain in Democratic hands, but next year’s nomination process promises to feature a competitive party primary.

The Kennedy Factor

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 19, 2023

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

RFK Jr.: Independent Impact — Since Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced that his presidential candidacy would move to the Independent line and away from the Democratic primary, it has been an exercise to predict which states his candidacy might detract from either President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump.

Though Kennedy is stating he will try to win the race as an Independent, the chances of him doing so are slim. Ross Perot, on the Reform Party ballot line in 1992, was the last minor party candidate who was significant in a modern-era presidential race. Perot received 18.9 percent of the national popular vote but won no states, meaning zero electoral votes. Bill Clinton won the 1992 election with 43.0 percent nationally and 370 electoral votes.

The last minor party candidate to secure electoral votes was at the time former Alabama Gov. George Wallace running on the American Independent Party line, back in 1968. He carried five states (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, and Mississippi) for a total of 46 electoral votes. Richard Nixon won the ‘68 election with 43.4 percent of the popular vote and 301 electoral votes.

Assuming Kennedy also fails to win a state, there are certain places where his candidacy could still affect the outcome. This means capturing enough votes to tip a state from one of the major party candidates to the other. Using the 1992 race as a model for 2024 because of the minor candidate factor, overlaid with current voting trends, it appears that six states could be in the “Kennedy tip” category.

Such includes four from Biden to Trump; one from Trump to Biden; and one Trump “gettable” state to Biden. Thus, the Kennedy influence could be enough to slightly tip the national general election to Trump or into the House of Representatives to break a tie.

The four states that could flip to Trump are Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. In 1992, former President George H.W. Bush carried Arizona, and to win this election Trump is virtually forced to also reverse his fortune from 2020 and carry the Grand Canyon State. In ’92, Bush won the state with a two-point margin over Clinton, while Perot attracted 23.8 percent. While the ’92 race occurred decades ago, the in-play states still exhibit the potential to provide a large number of votes to a minor party or Independent candidate, especially one with universal name identification.

Georgia is a state that must go to Trump if he is to have any chance of winning the general election. In 1992, Clinton carried the Peach State by less than one percentage point, while Perot garnered 13.3 percent of the vote.

Clinton carried the Silver State of Nevada with a three-point margin while Perot’s vote total was 26.2 percent. Should Kennedy also finish within the Perot vote total realm, it is reasonable to believe that more than a net three percentage point margin would come from President Biden’s total, which would likely be enough for Trump to win Nevada and add six electoral votes to his total.

New Hampshire, rated as one of the nation’s states with the greatest swing potential, also falls into the Kennedy tip category. Clinton defeated President Bush here by 1.3 percentage points in ’92, with a 22.6 percent vote factor for Perot. Again, if Kennedy were able obtain well over 20 percent in New Hampshire, a New England state with a strong history of supporting his family, that could tip the state’s four electoral votes to Trump. Only two points more from Kennedy’s aggregate would have to come from Biden’s total for Trump to win the state.

Alaska, however, with its Ranked Choice Voting system, could be a state that Kennedy’s presence could tip to Biden. The Ranked Choice Voting system has played to the Democrats’ favor here, and it may so again should the Kennedy factor be high enough to force the race leader below the 50 percent mark in order to jump-start the ranking procedure.

Finally, Wisconsin will be a major state in the ’24 election. In 1992, it also demonstrated a higher than average vote for Perot (21.5 percent). Clinton carried Wisconsin with a 4.3 v percentictory margin. These totals suggest that if Kennedy finished in the same realm as Perot in the Badger State, that would likely help President Biden.

The above scenario, assuming all other states voted as they did in the 2020 presidential race, would actually create an electoral college tie. Adding Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire and giving up Alaska would give both candidates 269 electoral votes, meaning the election would be decided in the House of Representatives.

Kennedy’s performance in these and several other states could well change the trajectory of the entire presidential race and becomes just one more unique factor in this so far unpredictable campaign.

RFK Jr.’s Declaration to Run as an Independent Could be a Presidential Race Game-Changer

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 11, 2023

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kennedy’s Independent Gambit: Potential Game-Changer — The 2024 presidential campaign may have dramatically changed this week. Though Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s announcement to run as an Independent was expected, it is unclear just how he will affect next year’s general election.

At a rally event in Philadelphia on Monday, Kennedy officially declared his presidential candidacy as an Independent. He answered two major questions with his speech. First, he will run as an Independent candidate and not as the nominee of a minor party. Second, he is not running to be a spoiler in a race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump but will campaign to win.

Saying his “smoldering movement” wants to “ … reclaim democracy, resurrect the promise of our republic, the promised land,” Kennedy ended his Democratic primary challenge to President Biden and now moves to implement a general election strategy.

He will first face an uphill battle to secure ballot placement in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. This is an expensive proposition, but time, rather than money, might be his bigger obstacle since the window to accomplish the large task is small.

Though Kennedy may be in the race to win, the chance of any non-major party nominee or candidate winning a majority of Electoral College votes is a long shot to say the least, even for a man named Kennedy.

It does appear, however, that he will attract a significant number of votes, which could throw a key state to either President Biden or former President Trump, thus altering the national campaign outcome.

In looking at a Kennedy candidacy, we analyze which states might be receptive to his campaign. Naturally, considering the Kennedy family history in New England, he could see some success in a couple of the northern domains. While the Kennedy home state of Massachusetts would still be a lock for President Biden, its neighbor to the north, New Hampshire, could be a different story.

In 2020, Biden scored a 52.7 – 45.3 percent victory margin over Trump (a spread of 59,277 votes) in the Granite State, with third party or Independent candidates attracting two percentage points (translating into a raw number of 15,625 votes). If Kennedy could approach the 10 percent range (approximately 80,000 votes based upon New Hampshire’s 2020 turnout figure), the outcome could change from Biden winning the state to Trump. Under this model, Biden would have to lose 14 percent of his aggregate vote to Kennedy while Trump could lose no more than five percent of his total.

If Kennedy’s presence in the race would throw New Hampshire to Trump, the state’s four electoral votes switching might make a difference. For example, a combination of Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and New Hampshire switching to Trump would give the former president 272 electoral votes, or two more than the bare minimum required to secure the presidency.

Maine could be another state where Kennedy would have the ability to draw some votes. In addition to the state splitting its electoral votes to the point where the individual congressional districts carry their own tally, Kennedy scoring into double digits in Maine’s 1st District could transform the final vote.

Even though the aggregate 1st District vote would still go to Biden, the closer finish coupled with a solid Trump win in the 2nd CD, might be enough to cast the statewide total Trump’s way and award the Republican three electoral votes instead of the one he has received in the past two elections.

Alaska is a place where the Kennedy presence could turn a state President Biden’s way. In 2020, Trump carried the state with 52.8 percent of the vote as compared to Biden’s 42.8 percent. Under the state’s Ranked Choice Voting system, the tables could turn if the leading candidate drops below 50 percent.

In 2020, 4.4 percent of the Alaska electorate chose a minor party or Independent candidate. Kennedy’s candidacy could easily see the latter percentage increase rather substantially, and most of his vote coming from the Trump total would force multiple rounds of Ranked Choice voting. This, in the end, would almost assuredly favor President Biden.

Kennedy already has two key attributes that almost none of the minor party or Independent candidates have, which is universal name identification and access to enough money to run a credible outreach campaign. Having these two points in his favor makes him a different type of Independent candidate, and thus should have the ability to attract a higher number of votes when compared to past non-major party candidates.

How the Kennedy candidacy ultimately affects the 2024 presidential race is clearly undetermined at this time, but he will have the opportunity of making his mark on this election.

RFK Jr. to Announce Independent Run; Sen. Feinstein Replacement Options; Menendez’s Re-Election Chances

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 2, 2023

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

RFK Jr.: To Announce Independent Run — Media reports are indicating that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will end his Democratic nomination challenge to President Joe Biden and instead launch a general election campaign. It is unclear whether he will run as an Independent or seek the nomination of an existing minor party.

Kennedy came to the realization that the Democratic Party establishment was going to block him from delegate acquisition, which gave him no hope of mounting even a competitive bid against President Biden. Kennedy’s name on the ballot could prove more detrimental to President Biden, though he will also take votes from former President Donald Trump.

The other question that Kennedy must answer is whether his candidacy will simply attempt to affect the general election outcome, or does he strive for a national victory. If the latter, he may have a difficult time in qualifying for the ballot in all 50 states. In any event, Kennedy’s appearance on the general election ballot can certainly change the course of the presidential campaign.

Senate

California: Sen. Feinstein Replacement Options — Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s (D-CA) death on Friday means California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) will apparently soon appoint an interim replacement to serve the balance of the current senatorial term. Earlier in the year, Gov. Newsom indicated that he would appoint a black woman to the seat if the position opened. This seemed to indicate that Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) would have the inside track. The two are close and both hail from the San Francisco Bay Area.

Now, however, Gov. Newsom — quite correctly — is saying he will not appoint one of the open seat Senate candidates who are currently vying for one of the two general election qualifying positions that will be determined in the March 5 Super Tuesday all-party jungle primary. Since Rep. Lee is a candidate, it appears she is no longer under consideration for the appointment. Gov. Newsom said he does not want to give one of the candidates, who are all working hard, an unfair advantage in the open primary by appointing one of them to the seat.

Many names are under consideration, but it is unlikely individuals such as Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Los Angeles) and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass (D) would give up their current positions to serve in the Senate for just a year. Therefore, Newsom could turn to a senior individual who has served either in elective office or a key appointed position. One such individual who might be considered is retired US Sen. Barbara Boxer (D). Should Newsom go in that direction, and if she would agree to serve again, he would likely receive no objection since he can justify the appointment arguing the statewide voters elected her four times and she could “hit the ground running,” due to her Senate experience. Sen. Boxer served from 1997-2015, after winning election to five terms in the House.

New Jersey: First Post Indictment Poll — Public Policy Polling quickly jumped into the field to test the New Jersey electorate right after Sen. Bob Menendez was indicated. The PPP survey, for the VoteVets Action Fund (Sept. 26-27; 565 New Jersey voters; multiple sampling techniques), explored several potential general election scenarios, none of which looked favorable for the incumbent.

Against a generic Republican opponent, the senator would trail 42-20 percent. If Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), who has already announced his candidacy, were paired with the generic Republican, he would lead 44-32 percent. In a hypothetical match between Kim and former Gov. Chris Christie (R), though the latter man has already said he will not run for the Senate, the former would lead 46-20 percent. Christie, however, would nip Sen. Menendez 27-24 percent. PPP did not test any Democratic primary pairings, which is the more definitive battle.

Harvard Poll: Some Surprises

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 21, 2023

Polling

President Joe Biden / Photo by Gage Skidmore

National Survey: Surprises in Key Areas — Harvard University’s Center for American Political Studies recently completed an exhaustive national poll (conducted by The Harris Poll (D) and the HarrisX (R) firm; Sept. 12-14; 2,103 registered US voters; online) and while most of the responses were consistent with what we have seen from other pollsters, some of the questions produced unexpected results.

Responses about the direction of the country and economy and how President Joe Biden is performing on key issues are highly consistent with other findings. The voting public believes by an approximate 2:1 majority that the country and economy are on the wrong track, and President Biden is rated negatively on all key issue areas.

There is a small surprise on the political party approval question. Though the responses are within the polling margin of error, this is the first survey in a long while that produces slightly better numbers for the Republican Party (45:55 percent favorable versus unfavorable) than the Democratic Party (44:56 percent), though both continue to register upside-down numbers.

The Harvard pollsters tested 24 well-known individuals and found a respondent sample that views the overwhelming majority of these public figures in a negative light.

The 24 individuals included all 2024 presidential candidates from both parties with the addition of Vice President Kamala Harris, US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Ted Cruz (R-TX), Josh Hawley (R-MO), Joe Manchin (D-WV), US Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and Elon Musk.

Within this group, only a quarter of the men and women (6 of the 24) registered positively. Surprisingly, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was the most favorably viewed (+15 percent), followed by former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy (both at +6 percent), Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) and Elon Musk (both at +5 percent), and Sen. Sanders (+3 percent).

The most negatively perceived were Sen. McConnell (-30 percent), ex-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (-20 percent), and former Vice President Mike Pence (-15 percent). President Biden scored a -12 percent, and ex-President Donald Trump fared a bit better at -6 percent.

Perhaps the biggest surprise were Vice President Harris’ ratings. While she scored -4 percent on the favorability index, her rankings in head-to-head pairings with the top Republican presidential candidates generally positive. While the survey showed that she would lose to Trump by six percentage points and tie former Vice President Pence, she leads the others.

Opposite Haley, Harris would lead by a single point. She tops Ramaswamy by two. Her best performance was against Sen. Scott (+7 percent), and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (+8 percent). She would also lead Kennedy 45-19 percent for the Democratic nomination if President Biden were to decide not to run.

Conversely, President Biden would trail Trump (-4 percent), Haley (-4 percent), and Sen. Scott (-2 percent). He would lead Pence (+6 percent), DeSantis (+4 percent), and Ramaswamy (+2 percent).

Legal Issues — The Harvard pollsters also queried the sample about the leading presidential candidates’ legal situations.

Regarding whether the sampling universe believes the new Biden impeachment inquiry and ex-President Trump’s prosecutions are legitimate or politically motivated, the respondents break exactly 50/50 on both questions. A majority, however (53-47 percent), support the impeachment inquiry.

There is a different view of the Hunter Biden situation and what the group believes about President Biden’s potential involvement. By a 60-40 percent majority, the respondents say that President Biden had “direct and detailed knowledge about his son’s business dealings.” The same 60/40 break was found when the pollsters asked if “Joe Biden has made false or misleading statements about his son’s business dealings, and what he knew about them.” A 57-43 percent break believes that “Joe Biden was helping his son Hunter get influence-peddling contracts.”

While there is polarization in Congress regarding the nation’s public policy, surprisingly the respondent universe answered the most important issue questions in a rather bipartisan manner.

Republicans (47 percent), Independents (41 percent), and Democrats (31 percent) all identified inflation and prices as the most important issue. Democrats (24 percent) and Independents (16 percent) tabbed climate change as second-most important; for Republicans, it was immigration (19 percent). All three groups reported crime as third-most important (Republicans 15 percent; Democrats 14 percent; Independents 13 percent).

We can count on seeing almost daily polling for the next few months from a multitude of survey research entities. Few, however, will be as extensive and detailed as this Harvard University study.

Biden Maintains Standing Against Kennedy; Trump Grows Stronger; New California Open-Seat Candidate; Ex-Candidate Returns to NC-8 Race

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 15, 2023

President

President Joe Biden / Photo by Gage Skidmore

President Biden: Maintains Standing Against Kennedy — The newly released Issues & Insights TIPP poll (Aug. 30-Sept. 1; 606 likely US Democratic primary voters; online) again finds President Joe Biden holding an overwhelming lead over Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in a Democratic primary trial heat.

The margin, though still on the weak side for an incumbent president, considering that 32 percent of the Democratic respondents would choose a candidate other than Biden, continues to stake the President to a 68-10 percent margin.

More importantly than the Biden number, which fluctuates to a degree, the Kennedy support figure has remained consistent in the low double-digit range. The fact that we have seen little movement in the nomination campaign despite months of campaigning from Kennedy, suggests that the final result will not differ greatly from what we’re seeing in the multitude of similar polling totals.

Iowa: Trump Grows Stronger — The newly released Emerson College Hawkeye State survey (Sept. 7-9; 839 Iowa respondents; 357 likely Iowa Republican caucus attenders; multiple sampling techniques) stakes former President Donald Trump to a 50-39 percent advantage over President Biden in a head-to-head ballot test. If Green Party candidate Dr. Cornel West is added to the questionnaire, Trump would lead both Biden and West, 48-35-5 percent.

Comparing Trump’s current polling numbers to those found during the 2016 and 2020 election cycle indicates that the former president’s lead over Biden could be even greater. In the two previous elections, Trump clearly under-polled in Iowa surveys when compared with the ultimate final result.

House

CA-31: Ex-Rep Enters California Open Seat Campaign — Former US Rep. Gil Cisneros (D), who was elected in 2018 but defeated for re-election two years later in a pre-redistricting Los Angeles-Orange County congressional district, and then who served as a Defense Department Under Secretary in the Biden Administration, has once again become an unofficial congressional candidate. Cisneros this week filed exploratory committee documents with the Federal Election Commission that allow a potential candidate the ability to raise greater than $5,000 in campaign funds.

The former congressman is starting from scratch in his new CD. The open 31st District, from which veteran Rep. Grace Napolitano (D-Norwalk) is retiring, has no constituent in common with the district that Cisneros previously represented. He won’t have money problems, however. You may recall that in 2010, Cisneros, then a recently retired US Navy officer, won a $266 million Mega Millions lottery so campaign funding should not be a particular issue for him.

State senators Bob Archuleta (D-Norwalk) and Susan Rubio (D-Baldwin Park) who represent large parts of the current CD will offer stiff competition, however. The seat will remain in Democratic hands, and it is likely that two Democrats will advance into the general election from the California top-two jungle primary system but there is no early guarantee that Cisneros will be one of the qualifiers.

NC-8: Ex-Candidate Harris to Return — In 2018, it looked for a time that Republican former pastor Mark Harris had won a southern North Carolina congressional seat. After challenges uncovered serious voter fraud and a new election was called, Harris withdrew from the campaign.

Then-state Sen. Dan Bishop (R-Charlotte) went on to claim the seat despite being badly outspent in the special general election. Now, Bishop is leaving the House to run for state attorney general. Harris announced Tuesday that he will return as a candidate in what will be an open 2024 election.

The district, however, may be drastically changed once the legislature submits a new redistricting plan sometime next month, so it is likely too early to forge any serious predictions. The only other announced candidate from either party is former Union County Commissioner Allan Baucom. Currently, Union County is the Republican bedrock of the 8th CD, a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as a whopping R+38.

Kennedy’s Victory Path

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Aug. 8, 2023

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Can RFK Jr. Do It?: Here’s How — Though there is plenty with which to disagree in a new piece that author and literary agent Brian Robertson published Sunday in the Washington Examiner (RFK Jr. Has a Path to Victory), he does raise an interesting point about a potential victory path for presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

In the article, Robertson makes the statement that the Kennedy campaign is now “driving the legacy media, as well as their handlers in the Democratic Party, insane with desperation.” He further states that Kennedy is showing “surprising strength” in the polls and posting “robust” fundraising numbers.

Little of the aforementioned rings true. It is highly unlikely that the Biden campaign strategists and their many media allies are panicking over the presence of Kennedy as an opponent.

Furthermore, it is not realistic to describe Kennedy’s poll numbers, which ranged from 11-20 pecent among Democratic primary voters through various national surveys, as ”surprising strength.” Additionally, while the Kennedy campaign reports on their June 30 Federal Election Commission campaign finance disclosure report of raising over $6.3 million, in this day and age of campaigning nationally such a dollar number is not particularly “robust.”

Robertson, however, does make some intriguing points. First, he is correct in his assessment that Kennedy has done a credible job of cracking through the media-imposed blackout of him and at least neutralizing their attempt to dismiss him as basically just a nuisance candidate to President Joe Biden.

Conversely, it’s important to keep in mind that President Biden’s own standing within Democratic primary polling isn’t all that impressive for an incumbent national leader. While Kennedy ranges from 11-20 percent as mentioned above, President Biden’s numbers spread between 60-71 percent in the same polls. Typically, an incumbent president should be posting average support figures of well over 80 percent from voters within his own political party.

But Robertson’s most interesting point is around the type of primaries the early states will host. The author isolates the first voting states of, for the Democrats, South Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Michigan, and educates the reader that all have some form of open voting. This means that non-affiliated voters can crossover and cast their ballot in the Democratic primary. The vast majority of these voters are not covered in the Democratic nomination polls, so within this group could be a hidden subset of voters for Kennedy.

The situation then becomes more intriguing if President Biden does not enter the New Hampshire primary. The state is unlikely to adhere to the Democratic National Committee’s primary schedule, thus President Biden may just skip the Granite State vote.

In and of itself, this would not be a major happening, but if Kennedy can begin to attract enough non-affiliated voters, and perhaps even some Republican support where election laws allow, meaning South Carolina, Michigan, Alabama, Arkansas, Minnesota, Mississippi, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia, from this pool of states voting before and on Super Tuesday, the campaign could begin to change.

While there is little chance that even a surging Kennedy campaign could deny President Biden renomination, the challenger exceeding expectations may certainly cast a new light upon the general election. Additionally, the stronger Kennedy’s showing in the early states is, enhances his attractiveness to a minor party searching for a candidate.

While Kennedy at this point rejects questions about running as a minor party candidate, a stronger than expected finish in the early Democratic primaries could cause him to think otherwise.

Presidential Trends

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 28, 2023

President

Are Trump and Biden locks for their respective parties?

Presidential Trends: Biden, Trump Party Nominations Look Inevitable — Heading toward August of the off-year, we are seeing clear presidential trends already developing.

President Joe Biden will be renominated. Despite Robert F. Kennedy Jr. being in the primary race and attracting some media attention, the Democratic process will almost assuredly be a non-event.

Trends are also clear for former President Donald Trump. He continues to lead in all polling and has actually gotten stronger within the party base after the series of indictments were leveled against him.

The Morning Consult data and research firm released a graph of the candidates’ progress from December of 2022 through the present. The latest result from their daily online track finds Trump now approaching 60 percent support nationally. In December, he was right at 50 support, but then generally dropped into the 40s through February but has continued to gain strength ever since.

The perennial second-place candidate, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, is now trending in the opposite direction. Beginning with 30 support national support in late December, Gov. DeSantis now finds himself languishing in the teens according to most GOP surveys.

The trajectory for most of the second-tier candidates has also been upward. Aside from Gov. DeSantis, who has fallen, and former Vice President Mike Pence and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who have remained virtually stagnant, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum have all improved their standing. Ex-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has bolted onto the scene but appears to be running to deny Trump, and while he is moving into the middle of the pack, it is difficult to see how his support grows from the Republican Party’s relatively small “Never Trump” faction.

As we know, national polls do not deliver any delegate votes to the candidates. Those, of course, are won at the state level through public voting, so it is important to follow the state data to get a true indication of the nomination contest’s ebbs and flows.

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