Tag Archives: President-Elect Donald Trump

Lara Trump Resigns; Cory Gardner to Chair Senate Leadership Fund; GOP May Have Credible 2026 Candidate in Massachusetts; Oklahoma Rep. Hern Decides Against Gubernatorial Bid

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 11, 2024

Senate

Now former Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Florida: Lara Trump Resigns RNC Position — Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump, daughter-in-law to President-Elect Donald Trump, has resigned her party leadership position after serving through the 2024 election. Rumors abound that Ms. Trump is a Senate appointment prospect from Florida once Sen. Marco Rubio (R), the Secretary of State-designate, is confirmed to his new position. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) will then choose a replacement for Rubio.

Ms. Trump indicates she would be interested in serving, and her RNC move suggests preparation for such an appointment. The person appointed to represent Florida in the Senate will have to run to serve the balance of the term in 2026, and again in 2028 for a full six-year term. Therefore, the appointee will need to be in major fundraising mode for a four-year period considering that two expensive statewide elections will have to be conducted. Certainly, Ms. Trump has demonstrated such fundraising ability.

Senate Leadership Fund: Ex-Senator to Chair — Former Sen. Cory Gardner (R), who may be the last Republican Senator to serve from Colorado for a very long time as the state continues to move toward the political left, has agreed to chair the Board of Directors of the Senate Leadership Fund. This group, founded by supporters of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to provide a political foundation his long tenure as Republican Leader, raised more than $292 million for the 2024 election cycle and is the top outside support organization for GOP Senate candidates.

House

MA-4: Republicans May Have a 2026 Candidate — For the first time in literally 100 years, the Fall River, Mass. electorate voted Republican for President in the 2024 election. This, plus former Fall River Mayor Will Flanagan now switching his party affiliation from Democrat to Republican suggests that the former local official may be preparing a bid to challenge Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Newton), who was just re-elected to a third term. In 2024, Auchincloss was unopposed in the general election.

Despite the city of Fall River voting Republican in the just completed election, the 4th District is a long way from making such a conversion. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+28, while The Down Ballot political blog statisticians rank MA-4 as the 95th safest seat in the House Democratic Conference. If the local Republicans convince Flanagan to run, they will have a credible candidate for the first time in many elections, but he would still be considered a major long shot to defeat Rep. Auchincloss from a position on the GOP ballot line.

Governor

Oklahoma: Rep. Hern Decides Against A Gubernatorial Bid — It appeared a near certainty that Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa), who was just re-elected to a fourth term in the House in November, would soon announce a bid for the impending open Governor’s race in two years. However, citing the small Republican House majority and the major agenda items the party wants to enact, Hern released a statement saying he would forego a statewide run in order to concentrate on his congressional duties.

During the leadership elections, Hern was elected as the Republican Policy Chair, so his increased Conference responsibilities also likely weighed in his decision to remain in the House.

Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Those viewed as potential Republican candidates include Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell, Attorney General Gentner Drummond, state School Superintendent Ryan Walters, and state House Speaker Charles McCall (R-Atoka).

Texas Senate Seat Questions; Florida House Special Elections Set; Arkansas Redistricting Commission Filed

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 9, 2024

Senate

Tarrant County Republican Party chairman Bo French

Texas: Potential Challenger Issues Statement — There have been political rumors in Texas for some time that Attorney General Ken Paxton is planning to challenge Sen. John Cornyn in the 2026 Republican primary, and now another individual is coming forward to confirm he is considering entering the next US Senate campaign.

Tarrant County Republican Party chairman Bo French, a MAGA activist, released a statement indicating he is considering becoming a Senate candidate. While he was running for Majority Leader, Sen. Cornyn stated he would run for a fifth term. It remains to be seen, however, if he will follow through with that statement now that he is not in the leadership.

House

FL-1: Special Election Field Set — Candidate filing has closed for the two Florida special congressional elections with primaries scheduled for Jan. 28. President-Elect Donald Trump and Sen. Rick Scott (R) have endorsed Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Petronis. Upon seeing the move from the national leaders, two potentially strong contenders, state Rep. Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola) and wealthy businessman Keith Gross, exited the race and endorsed Petronis. Even so, 10 others remain.

Though the field remains large, the top combatants are Petronis and state Rep. Joel Rudman (R-Navarre). The size of the GOP field suggests that we will see a plurality nominee advance into the April 1 special general election. One Democrat, athletic trainer Gay Valimont, and an Independent candidate also filed.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-1 as R+38, which makes the northwestern panhandle seat Florida’s safest Republican domain. Therefore, the winner of the Jan. 28 GOP primary will win the seat outright on April 1.

FL-6: Sen. Randy Fine (R) in Driver’s Seat for Special Election — While 11 Republican candidates filed in the 1st District special election, we see only one other Republican do so in the Atlantic coastal 6th District after President-Elect Trump and Sen. Scott publicly endorsed state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne). The individual also is a MAGA activist — Aaron Baker. Sen. Fine appears to be a lock for the GOP nomination.

Three Democrats, a Libertarian Party nominee, and an Independent have filed. It appears Sen. Fine has won this seat once candidate filing closed. The Independent candidate is Randall Terry, a well-known pro-life activist who was the 2024 American Constitution Party presidential nominee and lives in Tennessee.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+28, so neither vacant Florida seat appears vulnerable to a Democratic conversion.

Redistricting

Arkansas: Redistricting Commission Filed — According to the Redistricting Network organization, state Sen. Bryan King (R-Green Forrest) has filed a bill to create a redistricting commission to draw future district boundaries at all levels of government. This measure would create a nine member commission where the governor, state attorney general, and the secretary of state would appoint those serving.

The move is a strange one considering that Republicans have trifecta control of the governor’s mansion, the state Senate and state House of Representatives. From the current map, the Republicans hold a 4-0 advantage in the congressional delegation, a 29-6 division in the state Senate, and 82-18 in the state House. The chances for passage in this legislative session appear slim at the outset.

Collins vs. Mills in Maine? Potential Senate Challenger to Lindsey Graham; Lara Trump Destroys Sen. Tillis in New Poll; Tenn. Gov Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 5, 2024

Senate

Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R)

Maine: Collins vs. Mills? — Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) did not close the door on a 2026 challenge to Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) when asked about the possibility late last week, but other comments and circumstances suggest that she is unlikely to launch such a campaign. In any event, expect the Democrats to field a strong candidate against Sen. Collins even if they fail to entice Gov. Mills into running.

As an aside, the governor was actually laudatory in a comment about Sen. Collins becoming the chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Gov. Mills stated that she is “pleased” Collins will have her new position and termed it as “an asset for the State of Maine.” These are not quite the comments one might expect from a future political opponent.

South Carolina: Potential Challenger to Sen. Graham — Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), who in November was just re-elected to his fifth term in the US House, is confirming reports that he is considering a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham or entering what will be an open race for governor. In the latter race, incumbent Henry McMaster (R) is ineligible to seek a third full term.

Both races would be considered uphill. While Rep. Norman is more conservative than Sen. Graham, the latter man has a strong relationship with President-Elect Donald Trump. Therefore, what might normally be considered a Trump endorsement for Norman may not materialize in this case. For governor, the potential leading candidate is two-term Attorney General Alan Wilson (R), son of veteran Congressman Joe Wilson (R-Springdale). Another reported potential gubernatorial candidate is Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston).

North Carolina: Lara Trump Destroys Sen. Tillis in New Poll — The Victory Insights data organization surveyed the North Carolina electorate about the upcoming 2026 US Senate race, and a Republican primary battle between Sen. Thom Tillis and Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump would break decidedly toward the challenger. In the general election, both Sen. Tillis and Lara Trump would each trail outgoing Gov. Roy Cooper (D) by one percentage point according to the VI data.

Victory Insights (Nov. 26-27 & 29; 800 registered North Carolina voters; interactive voice response system & text) finds that among an undisclosed sample of Republican primary voters, Trump, a native of North Carolina, would easily defeat Sen. Tillis in the GOP primary by a whopping 64-11 percent count. At this point, there is no indication that she would run, but this poll is certainly a warning sign for Sen. Tillis.

Governor

Tennessee: Rep. Burchett Considering Gov Race — Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee (R) is another of the state chief executives who is ineligible to seek re-election, thereby the Volunteer State will also feature an open governor’s campaign. Even before the 2024 election, Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) made clear his intention to run for governor. Now, Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville) is also confirming that he, too, is considering a run for the state’s top job.

We are sure to see crowded open seat gubernatorial primaries in both parties around the country in 2026. It already appears that Tennessee will certainly feature a hot contest to succeed Gov. Lee.

Improvement Everywhere

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 3, 2024

2024 Election

President-Elect Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

With more 2024 election numbers becoming final and certified, we can begin to see that interesting patterns are developing, some of which were pervasive.

We have already seen many articles based upon exit polls showing that minority voters in the African-American, Hispanic, and Asian communities as well as younger citizens produced greater support for President-Elect Donald Trump than what past Republican candidates drew. He also gained more support from voters on the lower end of the economic scale and those without a college degree. The individual state totals, however, suggest his win was even more significant.

Whether the 2024 election proves to be the beginning of an American political realignment remains to be seen, but it does appear the Republicans now have an opportunity to create a more long-lasting, upward support trend with groups that, heretofore, comprised the Democratic Party’s strongest base vote.

Realignments typically have occurred in 40-50 year increments. Thus, the timing may be consistent with another realignment forming. Going back to the 1976 presidential election between Jimmy Carter and then-President Gerald Ford, we see the country has almost flipped. Of the 23 states that Carter carried in ’76, Kamala Harris won in only seven 48 years later. Conversely, Harris took a dozen states that Ford won. On the other hand, Trump won 16 states that Carter won, and 15 that Ford claimed.

The most sweeping change, however, comes in comparing Trump’s 2024 performance to his previous presidential runs.

When looking at his 2020 totals in comparison to 2024, we see that Trump improved his support percentage in all 51 voting entities. Calculating his percentage totals, we see that his support jumped to a mean average increase of 2.3 percentage points with a median of 1.9 percent. His high gain was in New York where he posted 5.7 percentage points over his 2020 total. His low was gaining only 0.2 percent in Washington.

Conversely, Kamala Harris performed badly in comparison to Joe Biden’s winning 2020 campaign. She underperformed Biden’s totals in 50 of the 51 voting entities, scoring a positive gain of just 0.2 percent over the president’s total in Utah. Even in her home state of California where the electorate three times elected her to statewide office, she finished 4.9 percent below Biden’s total even though she carried the state with 58.6 percent of the vote. It was her sixth-best performing state in the country. (District of Columbia, Vermont, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Hawaii were better Harris performers than California.)

Comparing the Trump and Harris increase/decrease totals, we see that the largest net swing (subtracting Harris decrease vis-a-vis Biden from Trump’s 2020 to 2024 increase total) occurred in New York where Trump gained 5.7 points over his 2020 performance and Harris dropped 5.7 from Biden’s 2020 total. Therefore, the net swing in Trump’s favor was 11 percentage points. The next two largest swings occurred in New Jersey (10 percentage points), and Florida (9.8 percent).

Looking at Trump’s 2016 performance in comparison to 2024, we see his former total beat his current total in only one state, Georgia, and by only .1 percent. His 2024 percentage of 43.2 equaled his 2016 performance in Colorado.

Interestingly, while Trump recaptured Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2024 after winning them in 2016 but losing all five in 2020, his support percentage was actually higher in losing (2020) than in winning (2016) in four of the five states. Only in Georgia was his winning 2016 percentage higher than his 2020 losing percentage.

Harris, on the other hand, did outperform Hillary Clinton’s 2016 total in 36 states with her largest increase margin being 10.3 percentage points in Utah.

Though this is not the “greatest landslide in Republican history,” as Trump claims (both of Ronald Reagan’s wins in 1980 and 1984 were bigger victories), the 2024 election is proving to be a very significant Republican win and one that could set the trend for future election cycles.

Petronis In Lead to Replace Resigned Rep. Gaetz; FL-6 State Senator in Lead; New York Rep. Torres Considers Challenging NY Gov. Hochul

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 2, 2024

House

Florida state CFO Jimmy Petronis (R)

FL-1: Petronis Coalescing Support — State CFO Jimmy Petronis (R), though not a resident of Congressional District 1, is quickly becoming the man to beat in the Jan. 28 Republican special primary election to replace resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz (R). Already with President-Elect Donald Trump’s endorsement, Sen. Rick Scott (R) now joins the Petronis backers. State Rep. Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola), businessman Keith Gross, and former state Rep. Frank White have all dropped out of the race and endorsed Petronis.

While 13 other Republicans are still on the ballot, Petronis is fast becoming the clear favorite. The special general election is scheduled for April 1. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-1 as the safest seat in the state at R+38.

FL-6: State Senator is Leading Congressional Candidate — President-Elect Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) have already chosen their preferred candidate to replace outgoing Florida Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach). Waltz has been chosen as Trump’s National Security Advisor and announced that he will resign his seat on Jan. 20, the day the president-elect is sworn into office for a non-consecutive second term.

With those endorsements, state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) is the clear early favorite, though seven other Republicans, including two former local elected officials and Rep. Waltz’s district director, are also announced candidates.

Because of the appointment notice, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) was able to combine the state’s two special congressional elections in one cycle (primary Jan. 28; special general, April 1).

Governor

New York: Rep. Torres Considering Gov Race — Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) is confirming reports that he is considering challenging Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) in the 2026 Democratic gubernatorial primary. Torres, a staunch defender of Israel, also says he would consider entering the crowded 2025 New York City mayor’s race but the governor’s challenge, he reiterates, is “more appealing.”

Gov. Hochul, who ascended to the governor’s office from her elected post as lieutenant governor when then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) resigned, defeated New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams and Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) 67-19-13 percent in the 2022 Democratic primary. She won the general election with an underwhelming 53-47 percent margin over then-Rep. Lee Zeldin (R).

Of all 50 states, President-Elect Trump’s performance improved over his 2020 showing in New York by the most in the country, a net 11.4 percentage points. Therefore, the state could potentially become more competitive in future elections.

Florida:
A Political Beehive of Activity

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 26, 2024

Florida’s Political Landscape

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fort Walton Beach)

With Florida’s two impending congressional special elections and a US senator to choose, the Sunshine State will dominate electoral politics in the coming weeks.

To begin, the situation surrounding ex-US Rep. Matt Gaetz’s vacant congressional district has been resolved, as has apparently the former congressman’s political future. Over the weekend, Gaetz, President-Elect Donald Trump’s nominee for US Attorney General who withdrew from consideration, because the Senate would obviously not confirm him; instead he declared that he will enter the open 2026 campaign for Florida governor. Incumbent Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. As part of the announcement, Gaetz reiterated that he will not take the oath of office for a new congressional term on Jan. 3.

Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) is President-Elect Trump’s choice for National Security Advisor. Since this position does not require Senate confirmation, Waltz can leave Congress and his 6th District and move to the White House immediately after Trump takes the oath of office Jan. 20 for his second non-consecutive term.

Once Sen. Marco Rubio (R) is confirmed as the nation’s new Secretary of State, Gov. DeSantis will then choose an individual to replace the departed incumbent. Whoever the governor selects must be a strong fundraiser. Not only will the new senator run in 2026 to fill the unexpired portion of the current term, he or she will have to run again in 2028 when the seat next comes in-cycle for a full six-year term.

After withdrawing as Trump’s AG nominee, there was speculation that Gaetz would instead return to the House, since his resignation was from the current Congress and not the future one. In the 2024 election, Gaetz was re-elected to a fifth term with 66 percent of the vote. He has now closed the door for such an option.

Gov. DeSantis has already set the special election to fill the vacant 1st District seat. The partisan primaries will be held Jan. 28 with the special general on April 1. Under Florida law, this was the quickest time frame in which to fill the vacancy.

Therefore, the Republican majority will be a seat down for the first quarter of 2025, and possibly as many as three depending upon when Waltz and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), the President-Elect’s nominee as US Ambassador to the United Nations, resign their seats.

Candidates wasted no time in coming forward for the open Gaetz 1st District seat. Previously announced were state representatives Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola) and Joel Rudman (R-Navarre). Virtually overnight, another dozen Republicans, three Democrats, and two Independents quickly declared their candidacies.

Among them are retired Navy officer Aaron Dimmock who challenged Rep. Gaetz in the ’24 Republican primary but attracted only 27 percent support, and businessman Keith Gross who opposed Sen. Rick Scott in this year’s GOP primary but recorded only nine percent of the statewide Republican primary vote.

Because there is a date certain as to when the 6th District seat will be vacant, Gov. DeSantis is able to use the same schedule that he announced late last week to replace resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz in the state’s 1st District. Like in District 1, the special primary will be held on January 28th with the special general tagged for April 1st. Candidate filing will close on December 6th. Before becoming Governor, the District 6 constituency three times elected Mr. DeSantis as their Representative.

The candidate qualifying period ends on Dec. 6. Gov. DeSantis is clearly looking toward his Florida cabinet members as potential Senate replacement choices. A great many political parts are being set in motion.

The timing of the Waltz resignation might be intriguing considering the razor-thin House Republican majority. If both California Reps. John Duarte (R-Modesto) and Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) lose their seats in the final two uncalled House races from extended political overtime, the party division in the House will rest at 219R – 215D along with the vacant FL-1 seat. Once Waltz and Stefanik depart, it would temporarily reduce to 217R – 215D.

Therefore, depending upon the legislative strategy the new White House and Republican leadership want to employ early in the session, we may see a delay in the Waltz resignation if his vote is needed to pass a key Trump agenda element. The Stefanik resignation will be later and largely based upon her Senate confirmation schedule.

Whatever happens, Florida has become a key political activity epicenter.

Polling Accuracy

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2024

Polling

President-Elect Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

There has been a great deal of controversial discussion about the 2024 political polling. Many continue to raise questions about the major polling firms’ cumulative accuracy rating, but is the criticism fair?

The perception that the polling industry missed President-Elect Donald Trump’s “landslide” win is not particularly accurate. Though Trump swept the battleground states, the margins were close, and virtually all of the 2024 presidential pollsters forecast close races in the critical states, which is the end result.

A typical polling margin of error is three percentage points. Using this as the accuracy scale, the Real Clear Politics polling average suggests that across the battleground board, the average survey fell within such a range.

In national polling, the ending Real Clear Politics average found Kamala Harris cumulatively leading by the smallest of margins, at 0.1 percent. These numbers include 24 polls from 14 different polling organizations.

While they did miss the projection of which candidate was leading, the cumulative margin was well within the margin of error. Since Trump is winning the national popular vote by 1.8 percentage points, the polling community average of 0.1 point separating the two candidate was a miss of 1.9 percentage points, but well within the margin of error.

In the battleground states, the least accurate polling came in Arizona. There, the Real Clear Politics average suggested a 2.8 percent lead for Trump, but he carried the state by a 5.5 percent margin. This was a 2.7 point miss.

The other states where the polling mark was two points off or more came in North Carolina and Nevada. The NC polling average suggested a Trump win margin of 1.2 percentage points. In actuality, the president-elect carried the state by 3.2 percent. In Nevada, the miss was a bit worse.

Pollsters pegged Trump with a lead of 0.6 percent, but he carried the Silver State with a 3.1 percent margin, thus the cumulative miss was 2.5 points.

The most accurate of the state presidential polling came in Georgia. The average projection suggested a Trump lead of 1.3 percent, but he won the state with a 2.2-point margin. Thus, the average poll figure missed the actual result by 0.9 points, again well within the polling margin of error.

In the seven battleground states, the polling community correctly projected five of the seven Trump wins. The two misses were Michigan and Wisconsin, but both fell only a half-point or less off the pace.

The one consistent error point in all of the battleground states, and nationally, was underestimating the Republican vote strength. This has been a consistent pattern during the Trump era, and it happened again in 2024 but to a lesser degree.

The numbers in the 11 competitive Senate races were not as accurate as the presidential projections.

The least accurately polled state was Florida where Sen. Rick Scott (R) recorded almost a 13-point victory, yet the polling average for his race against former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) suggested a much closer outcome. The two were separated by an average of 4.6 points in Sen. Scott’s favor.

A similar pattern, but to a lesser degree, occurred in Texas. For most of the race, the polling average showed a close race between Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas), but the end result proved different. While polling found Cruz extending his small lead within the race’s final stage to an average of 4.4 points, the end result yielded the two-term senator an 8.6 percent win, meaning a polling miss of 4.2 points, well outside the polling margin of error and far beyond the early race pattern.

The most accurately polled Senate race was Arizona, where the cumulative average found Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) leading former news anchor Kari Lake (R) by an average of 2.6 points in the later stages of the race, after he posted larger early advantages. Gallego would win the statewide race by 2.4 percentage points meaning a polling miss of only 0.2 percent.

As in the presidential race, the consistent polling flaw was under-counting the Republican support. In 10 of the 11 monitored races, the Republican candidate exceeded the suggested polling support figure. The only contest where the Republican candidate failed to top the polling average came in Montana where challenger Tim Sheehy (R) defeated Sen. Jon Tester (D) by 7.1 percentage points. The polling average in the race’s latter stage was 7.6 percent.

The polling community correctly projected the Senate winner in 10 of the 11 monitored races. The only contender to defy the polling projections was Pennsylvania Republican David McCormick (R) who many media outlets have projected as a winner opposite Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D). The race is in a recount where McCormick maintains a lead of better than 25,000 votes.

For the most part, the repeated polling criticism is exaggerated. Overall, the pollsters had a relatively good year, and did correctly see the Trump polling trend in that he won the battleground states and the national popular vote by largely predicted close margins. The consistent underestimating of Republican support, however, does indicate future methodology correction is warranted.