By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 23, 2024
Senate
North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC)
Looking at the key statewide races since and including 2016, the winning percentages were as follows: 2016 President (Trump 49.8 percent); 2016 Senate (Burr 51.1 percent); 2016 Governor (Cooper 49.0 percent); 2020 President (Trump 49.9) percent; 2020 Senate (Tillis 49.9 percent); 2020 Governor (Cooper 51.5 percent); 2022 Senate (Budd 50.5 percent); 2024 President (Trump 50.9 percent).
As you can see, regardless of political party affiliation or even incumbency, a typical North Carolina campaign is extremely close. Therefore, Sen. Tillis can expect another close finish in 2026 especially if his Democratic opponent is outgoing Gov. Roy Cooper, which is a distinct possibility. Gov. Cooper is also speculated upon as a potential 2028 presidential candidate.
Sen. Tillis, the former Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives, was originally elected to the Senate in 2014 when he unseated then-Sen. Kay Hagan (D) with 48.8 percent of the vote in another close electoral contest that ended in a 1.5 percentage point victory spread for the GOP challenger.
In 2020, Sen. Tillis trailed in the polls for almost the entire campaign, but rebounded to defeat Democrat Cal Cunningham after the latter man was caught in an ongoing extramarital affair. Sen. Tillis would post a two-point win but fell short of the 50 percent mark.
According to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, 28 surveys were conducted of the 2020 NC Senate race during the final month of the campaign. Cunningham led in 24 of the polls, and Sen. Tillis in only two, while two results found the men tied. The associated negative publicity relating to Cunningham’s extramarital affair helped turn the race Tillis’ way, along with the pollsters consistently under-counting the Republican support factor which is often the case in the southern states.
In 2026, it is conceivable that Sen. Tillis may face primary opposition, particularly if he decides to oppose one or more of the Trump cabinet nominees. Previously, Tillis had little trouble in his primaries, however.
He received 78 percent of the vote in 2020 and won a crowded initial primary in 2014 with 45.7 percent of the vote against seven Republican opponents. North Carolina has a 30 percent runoff law, so it is unlikely that a 2026 primary will produce a field of candidates with low enough support to force a secondary election. Therefore, expect a nominee to come forth through one intra-party election in both parties.
While Gov. Cooper would be the Democratic leadership’s first choice to oppose Sen. Tillis, there is no guarantee that he will run, possibly due to the lure of an open Democratic presidential primary season beginning just weeks after the 2026 midterm elections conclude.
Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary) didn’t seek a second term in the House because his 13th Congressional District turned red in the 2023 redistricting plan. Instead, Nickel announced that he would bypass a 2024 re-election campaign in order to challenge Sen. Tillis in 2026. Therefore, the Democrats are guaranteed of having at least one credible candidate to make a Senate run in the next statewide election.
In the 2026 Senate races, Republicans will be in a defensive position similar to the way Democrats were defending themselves in ’24. Counting the yet-to-be named Senators from Ohio and Florida when Sens. J.D. Vance (R-OH) and Marco Rubio (R-FL) assume their new positions as Vice President and Secretary of State and resign from the Senate, Republicans will be defending 22 seats and Democrats only 13. In the 2024 election, Democrats had to defend 23 seats as compared to the Republicans’ 11.
Clearly, the North Carolina race, mostly due to the state’s voter history that features such close elections, will be at the top of the Democrats’ conversion target list. Therefore, we can count on paying close attention to the Tar Heel State race throughout the entire election cycle.
