Tag Archives: Arkansas

Roundup: Senate, House, Governor, States & Cities Updates

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Senate

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham / Photo by Gage Skidmore

South Carolina — Speculation about a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham has largely been extinguished. Last week, President Donald Trump announced his endorsement of the Senator for re-election, which should dissuade a MAGA activist from deciding to primary the four-term incumbent. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) had been publicly musing about challenging Sen. Graham but now appears to have his sights set either for the open Governor’s race or running for re-election.

Fundraising — Two potential US Senate candidates signaled that they are taking their preparatory phase seriously. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) says she is going to report raising over $1.1 million for the first quarter of 2025. The Congresswoman indicates she will decide in the next few weeks about launching a Senate campaign to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI).

Illinois Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL), who is a likely Senate candidate if Sen. Dick Durbin (D) announces his retirement, wasted no time and is reporting raising over $3 million in the first quarter. Federal Election Commission reports will be made public after the 1st quarter filing deadline on April 15.

Minnesota — Attorney General Keith Ellison (D) this week announced that he won’t run for the Senate and instead endorsed Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D). It is expected that Ellison will seek re-election to a third term as the state’s AG. Also in the Democratic primary race is former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen. US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is still considered as a possible Senate candidate.

Several Republicans have announced, but the party leaders are looking for a strong contender who could run a tough and competitive general election campaign to come forward.

House

AZ-5 — Former professional football place kicker Jay Feeley (R), an ex-member of the Arizona Cardinals football team and CBS Sports sideline reporter, says he is considering entering what will be an open congressional race in Arizona’s 5th District. Additionally, former state Rep. Travis Grantham formally announced his congressional candidacy during the week. A crowded Republican primary is expected to compete to succeed Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) who is running for Governor. The 5th District with a partisan lean of 58.5R – 39.6D according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians is rated as the 87th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

AZ-7 — Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D), as expected, announced that she will attempt to succeed her father, the late-Congressman Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) in the upcoming special election. The Democratic primary will likely be a battle between Ms. Grijalva and former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez. Others will comprise the field, but these two will be the principal contenders to win the nomination. The Democratic nomination is virtually tantamount to winning the Sept. 23 special election. Rep. Grijalva passed away on March 13.

CA-32 — Jake Rakov (D), a former staff member for California Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks), announced that he will challenge his old boss in the 2026 California jungle primary. Rep. Sherman was first elected in 1996 and has not yet announced whether he will run for a 16th term. Rakov says he is challenging Sherman because of his “inadequate wildfire response, not holding in-person town halls & not doing enough to resist Trump’s “MAGA hellscape.” Talent Agent Chris Ahuja (D) is also a declared candidate. Rep. Sherman is again favored to advance into the general election and retain his seat in the 2026 election.

NY-4 — It appears that we won’t see the third version of the Rep. Laura Gillen (D-Rockville Centre) vs. former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R) campaign. President Trump announced that D’Esposito will become the Inspector General for the Department of Labor. Previously, the former New York Congressman, who lost his seat to Gillen in November, said he would return for a rematch. Republicans are expected to field a viable candidate to compete for the Long Island seat.

OH-13 — Former state Senator and Representative Kevin Coughlin (R), who lost to Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) by a 51-49 percent tally in November, says he will return to seek a rematch in 2026 in a district that former Vice President and presidential candidate Kamala Harris carried by just 183 votes. The district, however, may be different than in 2024. Under the Ohio redistricting system and because the current redistricting map was not passed with the required bipartisan support level, the map can only stand for two election cycles. Therefore, expect a new congressional plan to be unveiled in the next few weeks.

Governor

California — Former US Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-California Attorney General and previous Congressman Xavier Becerra (D) announced his intention to enter the open Governor’s campaign next year. Becerra also said he intends to stay in the race even if former Vice President Kamala Harris decides to run. Former Orange County Congresswoman Katie Porter (D) is also a declared candidate.

Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D), ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D), and state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) have all indicated they will run but could step aside if Harris decides to enter. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Most of the 2026 attention has focused on whether Harris will run, but she has yet to provide a definitive answer. The only serious Republican candidate is Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.

Georgia — Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) announced last week that she will not move forward with her plans to run for Governor. She said complications involving her husband’s cancer treatments have changed her plans as she will be devoting more time to helping him. It is expected she will seek re-election to the House, however.

On the other hand, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) announced that she will run for Governor. She will likely face a crowded Democratic primary field.

Republican Attorney General Chris Carr is an announced gubernatorial candidate for the GOP nomination. The Republican primary is expected to feature a number of candidates once term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp (R) announces whether he will run for the Senate.

South Carolina — First Tuesday Strategies poll (March 19-21; 500 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system & online) finds Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), leading Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, and Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) by a 21-16-7-6 percent margin.

States & Cities

Arkansas — Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) signed legislation that eliminates moving the primary election from cycle to cycle as has been the previous practice. In presidential election years, the Arkansas primary was held in March, but in midterm years the nomination vote returned to its traditional May slot. The new law sets March as the state’s permanent primary month. This means both the 2026 Democratic and Republican primaries will likely be held on March 3.

Boston — Though it was expected that real estate developer Thomas O’Brien (D) would announce his mayoral candidacy during the week, in fact he did the opposite. Mr. O’Brien, brother of Boston College head football coach Bill O’Brien and a former NFL head coach, instead announced that he will not enter the race to oppose incumbent Michelle Wu. Still in the contest is businessman Jonathan Kraft, son of New England Patriots owner Bob Kraft. The September jungle qualifying election is expected to be competitive.

Oakland — A new Oakland mayoral poll suggests that former Rep. Barbara Lee (D) has fallen behind in her quest to succeed ousted Mayor Sheng Thao (D). A new election was called once Thao was recalled from office during the November election. Oakland City Councilman Loren Taylor (D) released his internal EMC Research survey (March 17-20; 400 Oakland likely special election voters) that finds him leading the former veteran Congresswoman 45-40 percent. Previously, Lee led in all published polling but with diminishing margins. In 2024, Ms. Lee risked the US House seat she held for 26 years for an unsuccessful US Senate bid.

St. Louis — It appears that St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones’ (D) days in office are coming to an end. After performing poorly in the mayoral primary, a new Remington Research Group poll finds Alderwoman Cara Spencer (D), who placed first in the primary, enjoying a large 55-31 percent lead in the upcoming runoff election. Four years ago, Jones defeated Spencer but it appears the 2025 election will feature the opposite result.

Texas Senate Seat Questions; Florida House Special Elections Set; Arkansas Redistricting Commission Filed

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 9, 2024

Senate

Tarrant County Republican Party chairman Bo French

Texas: Potential Challenger Issues Statement — There have been political rumors in Texas for some time that Attorney General Ken Paxton is planning to challenge Sen. John Cornyn in the 2026 Republican primary, and now another individual is coming forward to confirm he is considering entering the next US Senate campaign.

Tarrant County Republican Party chairman Bo French, a MAGA activist, released a statement indicating he is considering becoming a Senate candidate. While he was running for Majority Leader, Sen. Cornyn stated he would run for a fifth term. It remains to be seen, however, if he will follow through with that statement now that he is not in the leadership.

House

FL-1: Special Election Field Set — Candidate filing has closed for the two Florida special congressional elections with primaries scheduled for Jan. 28. President-Elect Donald Trump and Sen. Rick Scott (R) have endorsed Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Petronis. Upon seeing the move from the national leaders, two potentially strong contenders, state Rep. Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola) and wealthy businessman Keith Gross, exited the race and endorsed Petronis. Even so, 10 others remain.

Though the field remains large, the top combatants are Petronis and state Rep. Joel Rudman (R-Navarre). The size of the GOP field suggests that we will see a plurality nominee advance into the April 1 special general election. One Democrat, athletic trainer Gay Valimont, and an Independent candidate also filed.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-1 as R+38, which makes the northwestern panhandle seat Florida’s safest Republican domain. Therefore, the winner of the Jan. 28 GOP primary will win the seat outright on April 1.

FL-6: Sen. Randy Fine (R) in Driver’s Seat for Special Election — While 11 Republican candidates filed in the 1st District special election, we see only one other Republican do so in the Atlantic coastal 6th District after President-Elect Trump and Sen. Scott publicly endorsed state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne). The individual also is a MAGA activist — Aaron Baker. Sen. Fine appears to be a lock for the GOP nomination.

Three Democrats, a Libertarian Party nominee, and an Independent have filed. It appears Sen. Fine has won this seat once candidate filing closed. The Independent candidate is Randall Terry, a well-known pro-life activist who was the 2024 American Constitution Party presidential nominee and lives in Tennessee.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+28, so neither vacant Florida seat appears vulnerable to a Democratic conversion.

Redistricting

Arkansas: Redistricting Commission Filed — According to the Redistricting Network organization, state Sen. Bryan King (R-Green Forrest) has filed a bill to create a redistricting commission to draw future district boundaries at all levels of government. This measure would create a nine member commission where the governor, state attorney general, and the secretary of state would appoint those serving.

The move is a strange one considering that Republicans have trifecta control of the governor’s mansion, the state Senate and state House of Representatives. From the current map, the Republicans hold a 4-0 advantage in the congressional delegation, a 29-6 division in the state Senate, and 82-18 in the state House. The chances for passage in this legislative session appear slim at the outset.

Super Tuesday Preview – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 4, 2024

The Super Tuesday primaries are tomorrow and while the presidential nominations appear set, five states will also hold their full ballot 2024 nomination elections. Today, we look at the Alabama, Arkansas, and California primaries. Tomorrow, North Carolina and Texas.

California

Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) / Former baseball great Steve Garvey (R)

The Golden State hosts the most action in the Super Tuesday state primaries. A hot open US Senate race is featured, and competition exists in as many as 20 of the state’s 52 congressional races, seven of which are open seat contests.

The final Senate poll, from the University of California at Berkeley’s Institute of Government Studies for the Los Angeles Times (Feb. 22-27; 6,536 registered California voters; 3,304 of whom have already mailed their ballots; online) contains a surprise.

For the first time since this open Senate race began, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) has lost his first place spot. Republican former baseball star Steve Garvey has captured the lead largely because Schiff has been spending heavily to label him as too conservative in an attempt to unify Republicans and block Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) from qualifying for the general election.

The ballot test finds Garvey posting 27 percent support with Rep. Schiff close behind with 25 percent. Porter would be eliminated if this poll’s findings are correct. She attracts 19 percent support, while Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) drops to eight percent preference. Garvey and Schiff would then advance into the general election. An inter-party general election heavily favors Democrats.

In the top two all-party jungle primary House races, several could be headed for general elections featuring members of the same political party.

The districts potentially producing double-Democratic finalists are the 12th (open; Rep. Lee running for Senate),16th (open; Rep. Anna Eshoo-D retiring), 25th (Rep. Raul Ruiz-D being challenged), 26th (Rep. Julia Brownley vs. Councilman Chris Anstead), 29th (open; Rep. Tony Cardenas-D retiring), 30th (open; Rep. Schiff running for Senate), 31st (open; Rep. Grace Napolitano-D retiring), and 34th (Rep. Jimmy Gomez-D again being challenged).

The vacant 20th District (Rep. Kevin McCarthy-R resigned) could potentially produce a double-Republican general election.

Competitive inter-party races already look set in the 3rd (Rep. Kevin Kiley-R vs. Jessica Morse-D), 9th (Rep. Josh Harder-D vs. Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln-R), 13th (Rep. John Duarte-R vs. former Assemblyman Adam Gray-D), 21st (Rep. Jim Costa-D vs. Michael Maher-R), 22nd (Rep. David Valadao-R vs. ex-Assemblyman Rudy Salas-D), 27th (Rep. Mike Garcia-R vs. George Whitesides-D), and 41st (Rep. Ken Calvert-R vs. Will Rollins-D).

In several other competitive seats, the general election slate is uncertain heading into tomorrow’s primary, though all mentioned incumbents will claim the first general election ballot slot. Those are: Districts 40 (Rep. Young Kim-R), 45 (Rep. Michelle Steel-R), 47 (open; Rep. Katie Porter-D running for Senate), and 49 (Rep. Mike Levin-D).

Though the California jungle primary can’t elect any candidate outright, tomorrow’s voting will provide us with a significant number of political answers.

Alabama

In adherence to the US Supreme Court’s ruling on the Alabama racial gerrymandering case, the state’s congressional map has been redrawn. Tomorrow’s focus will be on two major House races, the Republican pairing between Reps. Jerry Carl (R-Mobile) and Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) in a newly crafted 1st District that stretches from Mississippi to Georgia along Alabama’s Florida border, and an open 2nd CD from Montgomery to Mobile that is designed to elect an African American candidate.

Even though Alabama is a runoff state, the Carl/Moore contest will be decided tomorrow since they are the only two candidates on the ballot. Therefore, the winner will have majority support and become the prohibitive favorite for the general election. Carl currently represents 59 percent of the new district, and Moore, 41 percent. Both have been attacking the other as weak on the southern border.

The most recent poll, from Auburn University at Montgomery with the Survey Research Center at the University of Georgia (Feb. 27; 1,909 likely AL-1 voters; text to web) found a ballot test result that favors Rep. Carl, 43-35 percent, but suggests the final outcome will yield a close result.

In the 2nd CD, we can expect the primary vote to produce runoff elections for both parties. A total of 11 Democrats and seven Republicans are competing for their respective nominations. The field includes two state senators, four state representatives, including the House Minority Leader and Minority Whip, and one local official. The eventual Democratic nominee becomes a clear favorite in the general election.

Arkansas

The presidential contest is the only statewide race on the Arkansas ballot and all four of the state’s US House members are seeking another term. Tomorrow’s only semi-competitive battle occurs in the northwest Arkansas 3rd Congressional District where seven-term US Rep. Steve Womack (R-Rogers) faces state Sen. Clint Penzo (R-Springdale).

The challenger had raised less than $94,000 and had $65,000 cash-on-hand through the Feb. 14 pre-primary filing. This suggests little activity on his part, and we can expect a big Womack victory tomorrow night. No change is expected in the Arkansas delegation for the next Congress.

New Hampshire Presidential Primary Remains 1st; NJ First Lady Announces; Arkansas Candidate Filing Closes; VA-5 Candidate Emerges

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 17, 2023

President

New Hampshire: Presidential Primary Finally Scheduled — New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan announced that the state’s “first-in-the-nation” presidential primary will be scheduled for Jan. 23, 2024. There is little surprise associated with this date. To remain as the first primary state and comply with New Hampshire election law — Iowa still votes earlier (Jan. 15), but they feature caucus voting — Jan. 23 became the state’s only choice.

The Nevada primary is Feb. 6, and New Hampshire law, which gives the Secretary of State sole authority to schedule and move the election to prevent another domain from jumping to the front, requires the primary to be at least one week before any other state. Thus, Jan. 23, in holding with their Tuesday voting tradition, was the secretary’s only viable option.

President Joe Biden will not participate in the New Hampshire primary because the state would not agree to the new Democratic National Committee schedule. Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) will be on the Democratic ballot, however, and most of the party’s state leadership is organizing a write-in campaign to support President Biden.

Senate

New Jersey: State’s First Lady Announces for Senate — Tammy Murphy (D), wife of New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D), officially declared her candidacy to oppose indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D) in next year’s Democratic primary. Though most believe Sen. Menendez will not seek re-election, there has been no such confirmation from the Menendez camp.

Ms. Murphy should be regarded as a long shot to win the party nomination. Immediately upon Sen. Menendez’s indictment becoming public, US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) announced his challenge to Menendez, and he has already established a large lead in polling and fundraising. Conversely, Ms. Murphy is a first-time political candidate.

House

Arkansas: 2024 Candidate Filing Closes — The Arkansas ballot is now set. With the candidate filing deadline now past, we’ll look forward to seeing one contested congressional primary election on Super Tuesday, March 5. The presidential primary will be held that day, and with no Senate seat on the Arkansas ballot this year, the four congressional seats become the state’s only other federal elections.

In three districts, the general election candidates are now set. In the eastern 1st District, veteran Rep. Rick Crawford (R-Jonesboro) will run for an eighth term against Iraq War veteran Randy Govens (D). Five-term Rep. French Hill (R-Little Rock) will face retired Army Col. Marcus Jones (D) in the Little Rock-anchored 2nd CD. Fourth District incumbent Bruce Westerman (R-Hot Springs) will be tasked with defending his seat against Democratic attorney Risie Howard.

The only primary contest among the congressional districts comes in the state’s western 3rd District where state Sen. Clint Penzo (R-Tontitown) will oppose seven-term Rep. Steve Womack (R-Rogers). It remains to be seen if this race develops into a major challenge. Republicans will be favored to again retain all four of the Natural State’s congressional districts.

VA-5: Rep. Good Challenged for Renomination — Two-term Virginia Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg), one of the outspoken Freedom Caucus members who was a leader in the move to oust Speaker Kevin McCarthy, will have a renomination challenge next year.

John McGuire III, a state Delegate first elected in 2017 who then won a state Senate seat last week in unopposed fashion, filed a congressional campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission on Wednesday. McGuire, a retired Navy SEAL, ran for Congress once before, losing in the former 7th District’s 2020 Republican nominating convention. State Delegate Nick Freitas, who defeated McGuire that year, would then lose a close battle to Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Ellen) in the general election.

Rep. Good was first elected to the Campbell County Board of Supervisors in 2015. He defeated then-US Rep. Denver Riggleman (R) in a district convention that his key supporters controlled. Assuming Rep. Good is as strong with the local Republican Party as he was during his first election campaign, it would be very difficult for McGuire to upset him within such a favorable venue.

Trump on Ballot in Minnesota; Incumbent Challenged in AR-3; Virginia Final Numbers; Houston Mayoral Runoff Set

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 10, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Minnesota: State Supreme Court OKs Trump for Primary Ballot — Ruling on a 14th Amendment lawsuit attempting to bar former President Donald Trump from the ballot saying he incited an “insurrection” even though he or no January 6-convicted defendant was even charged with insurrection against the Constitution; therefor, the Minnesota State Supreme Court ruled Wednesday that he will be placed on the Republican primary ballot. The high court left open the possibility to hear, however, another lawsuit for the general election should Trump win the Republican presidential nomination.

Similar lawsuits are also alive in Colorado and Michigan.

In dismissing the challenge, Minnesota Chief Justice Natalie Hudson wrote that the Republican primary is, “an internal party election to serve internal party purposes … [and] there is no statute that prohibits a major political party from placing on the presidential nomination primary ballot, or sending delegates to the national convention supporting, a candidate who is ineligible to hold office.”

The plaintiffs indicated they are “disappointed” with the ruling but underscored that the state Supreme Court has left the door open for a perhaps different ruling later in the cycle relating to the general election.

House

AR-3: Rep. Womack to Face GOP Primary Challenge — Yesterday, Arkansas state Sen. Clint Penzo (R-Springdale) announced that he will challenge seven-term Congressman Steve Womack (R-Rogers). During his tenure in the House, Womack served briefly as chairman of the House Budget Committee. Immediately, in a show of support, Sen. Tom Cotton (R), Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R), and US Rep. Rick Crawford (R-Jonesboro) announced their endorsements of the incumbent. It remains to be seen if this challenge becomes a serious effort. The Arkansas primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

States

Virginia: Numbers Becoming Final — The final votes are being reported in the Virginia legislative elections, and the party division numbers look to be 21-19 in the Democrats’ favor for the incoming state Senate, and a 51-49 Democratic majority in the House of Delegates. The final numbers are slightly better for Republicans, but Democrats now control both houses in the General Assembly instead of just one.

Cities

Houston: Mayoral Runoff Set, Outgoing Mayor Endorses — Gov. Greg Abbott (R) confirmed that the Houston mayoral runoff election will be held on Dec. 9. The runoff winner will earn a four-year term as America’s fourth largest city’s chief executive. Immediately after the election, outgoing Mayor Sylvester Turner (D), ineligible to seek a third term, endorsed US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston). She placed second to state Sen. John Whitmire (D-Houston) in Tuesday’s initial election. Neither candidate received majority support to secure the election, hence the need for a head-to-head second vote.

Boozman Looks to be in Strong Shape in Arkansas; Two Pollsters, Same Tight Result in Arizona; Minnesota Gov. Walz Has Comfortable Lead

By Jim Ellis — Sept. 21, 2022

Senate

Arkansas Sen. John Boozman (R)

Arkansas: Rare Data — It has been assumed that Sen. John Boozman (R) secured a third term in office when he won his contested Republican primary back in March. A Hendrix College/Talk Business Net survey, from the organizations that regularly sponsor Arkansas political polls, finds Boozman in predictably strong shape for the November election. The survey (Sept. 12; 835 likely Arkansas general election voters) gives the senator a 44-31 percent advantage over civil rights activist and realtor Natalie James (D).

Arizona: Two Pollsters, Same Tight Result — The Trafalgar Group’s new Arizona survey (Sept. 14-17; 1,080 likely Arizona general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Sen. Mark Kelly’s (D) previously large lead dwindling to 47-45 percent over Republican venture capitalist Blake Masters.

Earlier in September, Emerson College (Sept. 6-7; 627 likely Arizona general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) arrived at exactly the same conclusion: Sen. Kelly leading 47-45 percent. Remembering that the 2020 Senate race closed quickly against Kelly, limiting him to a 51-49 percent victory over appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R) after leading by an average margin of 6.6 percent through 21 October polls according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, the 2022 race looks to be headed toward a very interesting conclusion.

House

IA-3: An Unsurprising Dead Heat — In one of America’s tightest congressional districts, Rep. Cindy Axne’s (D-Des Moines) campaign just made an interesting move. The congresswoman’s political leadership yesterday released Rep. Axne’s new internal Impact Research survey (Sept. 7-11; 500 likely IA-3 voters; live interview & text) that reports she and her Republican challenger, state Sen. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant), are tied at 47 percent apiece.

The point of releasing the poll, however, is to show emphasis on the abortion issue among the respondents, which the campaign strategists believe will swing voters to the Democratic incumbent. Even when knowing Sen. Nunn’s abortion position, however, the best Rep. Axne can do is tie, suggesting that despite deep disagreements over the issue in the central Iowa region it does not appear to be bringing any more voters into Axne’s camp. Her 47 percent support figure quoted in this poll is consistent with her two 49 percent victory percentages in 2020 and 2018.

Governor

Minnesota: Gov. Walz With Comfortable Lead — In a race where the polling has been inconsistent during the past few months, Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy has released a new ballot test result from their research study conducted for the Minneapolis Star Review and Minnesota Public Radio (Sept. 12-14; 800 likely Minnesota general election voters; live interview). The M-D conclusion finds Gov. Tim Walz (D) leading former state Sen. Scott Jensen (R), 48-41 percent.

The governor’s job approval score is 52:42 percent favorable to unfavorable. President Biden remains upside-down in Minnesota on his favorability index, but the number is improving. In this M-D poll, 46 percent approve of the job the president is doing and 49 percent disapprove.

Ohio: Conflicting Surveys — We are seeing places around the country where pollsters are producing very diverse ballot test results even when testing an electorate within the same time realm. The Ohio governor’s race is another such example. A Civiqs organization poll, surveying for the Daily Kos Elections site (Sept. 10-13; 780 likely Ohio general election voters; online) projects a close race developing between Gov. Mike DeWine (R) and Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley (D). The Civiqs ballot test projects Gov. DeWine to hold only a 44-41 percent edge.

Emerson College, however, sees a much different margin when polling within exactly the same time frame. Their poll (Sept. 10-13; 1,000 likely Ohio general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) yields the governor a wide 50-33 percent spread over Mayor Whaley. The latter poll result is more consistent with other publicly released surveys for this campaign.

And The Landslides Bring It Down

By Jim Ellis — May 25, 2022

Primary Results

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp

Georgia: Gov. Brian Kemp turned back former Sen. David Perdue with an unpredicted landslide 74 percent win in what was clearly the most anticipated race of the evening. While polling showed that the governor would be re-nominated, a huge 74-22 percent vote spread was unforeseen. Considering where Gov. Kemp started after the 2020 election and former President Donald Trump piling on him up until the day of this vote, Kemp’s win was extraordinary within a primary turnout of just under 1.2 million GOP voters, the size of which has not been previously seen.

Also scoring big was Herschel Walker in the US Senate Republican primary. He won with more than 68 percent of the vote and now advances to face Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) in the general election. Sen. Warnock had only minor opposition in the Democratic primary and captured 96 percent of the 713,000-plus Democratic votes that have been recorded.

In the 7th Congressional District Democratic incumbent pairing contest, Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) scored a huge 63-31 percent victory over freshman Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-Suwanee). The two incumbents became paired when the Republican map drawers decided to make the new 6th District safely Republican, thus forcing McBath into the adjoining 7th CD.

Alabama: Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville), who former President Trump pulled back from endorsing because, at the time, it was viewed his campaign was going nowhere, rebounded to capture second position (29.2 percent) in the open US Senate Republican primary and advance to the June 21 runoff election. The first-place finisher is former Business Council of Alabama President & CEO Katie Britt (44.7 percent). Both defeated retired “Black Hawk Down” pilot Mike Durant (23.3 percent), whose self-funded campaign fell short of the mark in what was an expensive three-way race.

In the contested Republican gubernatorial primary, Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) won re-nomination with 54 percent of the vote against eight Republican opponents. Here, too, GOP turnout was much higher than the Democrats’ — over 645,000 voters compared to 168,000. In both Georgia and Alabama, the Trump endorsements clearly lacked the punch we have seen in the other early primaries.

Arkansas: Sen. John Boozman turned back three Republican challengers to win his re-nomination outright with 58 percent of the vote. All four GOP US House members were also re-nominated, though 2nd District Rep. French Hill (R-Little Rock) posted a surprisingly low 58.5 percent.

The open governor’s race produced no surprise. Former Trump press secretary and daughter of ex-Gov. Mike Huckabee, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, won a landslide Republican nomination with 83.2 percent of the vote. She will easily replace term-limited Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) in the autumn election.

MN-1 Special Primary: The Minnesota special congressional primary to begin the replacement process for the late Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R-Blue Earth/Rochester) is also undecided. The Republican side now features a two-way battle between former state Rep. Brad Finstad (38.0 percent) and state Rep. Jeremy Munson (36.8 percent) with 88 percent reporting. The Finstad lead is 427 votes, which may or may not stand up as the final counting process proceeds.

On the Democratic side, former Hormel company CEO Jeff Ettinger won the party nomination with 64.3 percent of the vote over seven opponents. The eventual nominees will square off in a special general election on Aug. 9, a date concurrent with Minnesota’s regular primary election. Republican turnout so far surpasses the Democratic participation rate by almost a 2:1 margin, 35,330 to 18,392.

Texas: The Texas results featured a crushing defeat for the Bush family, as two-term incumbent Attorney General Ken Paxton swamped Land Commissioner George P. Bush, son of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, with a 67.2 – 32.8 percent margin. Paxton will now face attorney Rochelle Garza who won the Democratic runoff with 62.9 percent of the vote.

There are two unresolved congressional races at this writing. In one of the South Texas seats, veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) leads attorney Jessica Cisneros by just 177 votes with 94 percent of the expected vote recorded. Most of the outstanding vote appears to come in Cuellar-favorable counties, so it is more likely that he survives a very close primary and runoff set of elections.

In the contested open 15th District, in what could well become the most hotly contested general election in the Lone Star State, the Democratic runoff is still a long way from being decided. Candidates Michelle Vallejo and Ruben Ramirez are only 23 votes apart with just 50 percent of the counting reported. This contest could require quite a bit of time to decide. The eventual winner will face the 2020 Republican nominee, Monica de la Cruz, who easily won re-nomination outright back on March 1.

Moving to the open Dallas-anchored 30th District, State Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) recorded a 60.6 percent runoff win to capture the party nomination in the safely Democratic seat. She will succeed retiring US Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Dallas) in November. Johnson has represented the area in Congress for the past 30 years.

House

NY-19: Rep. Delgado to Take Oath for Lieutenant Governor; Will Resign Today — US Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-Rhinebeck) will officially be sworn in as the state’s new lieutenant governor later today. Resigning the congressional seat just before taking the oath of office allows Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) to schedule the special election to replace Delgado concurrently with the Aug. 23 congressional primary. The political parties will choose their respective nominees, meaning there will be only one election to fill the balance of the congressman’s current term. The new member then could seek a full term in the new 19th CD, which will be different in configuration to the current pre-redistricting seat.

Governor

Michigan: Top GOP Candidate Facing Disqualification — Media reports surfacing from Michigan are indicating that several Republican candidates, including polling front-runner James Craig, the former Detroit Police Chief, may fall short of presenting 15,000 valid registered voter petition signatures to qualify him for a ballot position. According to the Michigan Bureau of Elections, 9,879 of Craig’s signatures were invalid for various reasons, leaving him well short of the 15,000 minimum number.

Another gubernatorial candidate, businessman Perry Johnson (R), is in similar position. The Michigan governor’s race is one of he premier statewide campaigns in the country this year, so with Craig potentially being ousted as a candidate, that’s a major developing story.