Tag Archives: Lara Trump

Lara Trump Out in Florida;
Vance Senate Replacement Update

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Jan. 2, 2025

Senate

Lara Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Former Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump announced before Christmas that she is removing herself from consideration to replace Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio as Senator in Florida, and there are new signals emerging about who will succeed Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance via similar appointment.

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) will appoint a new Florida Senator upon Rubio being confirmed as Secretary of State. Therefore, expect an individual who is close to DeSantis to be chosen. Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nunez, Attorney General Ashley Moody, and ex-state House Speaker Jose Olivo are possible Rubio successors. DeSantis says he will announce his choice sometime in January.

Sen. Rubio will likely be one of the first Trump nominees confirmed since his position is one of the more important and the approval process before his 99 colleagues is expected to progress smoothly. There is little suggestion that he will lose any Republican votes and is likely to attract some crossover Democratic support.

Possibly, a reason for Ms. Trump’s withdrawal from consideration is an understanding that Gov. DeSantis is headed in another direction. He certainly will pick someone who has a campaign background and the ability to raise funds. Ms. Trump fit the bill concerning both of those qualifications but is not a Florida political insider. Ms. Trump hails from North Carolina and the Eric Trump family has lived in Florida for only a short time.

Whoever Gov. DeSantis selects will have to run to serve the balance of the term in 2026, and then again in 2028 when the seat next comes in-cycle for a full six-year term. Therefore, the new Senator will be in heavy fundraising mode for a full four-year period since Florida, the state with the third largest population, is a very expensive place in which to campaign.

Ohio — The Ohio appointment is interesting in that the top prospects are all saying they instead want to run in the state’s open Governor’s contest. Originally, it appeared that both Lt. Gov. Jon Husted and Attorney General Dave Yost were thought to be the top appointment contenders. Both had already announced they were running for Governor and each reiterated he wanted to stay in the race.

Another potential appointment, Secretary of State Frank LaRose who ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in 2024, is also expressing interest in the Governor’s race. LaRose is thought of a long-shot appointment since he is well to the right of Gov. Mike DeWine, therefore it’s unlikely that the latter man would look in the Secretary’s direction.

Recent indications, however, suggest that Lt. Gov. Husted could still become Gov. DeWine’s choice for the Senate seat if Husted would change his intention and accept the position. Appointing Husted would make sense because it would save the Republicans from enduring a difficult and potentially divisive gubernatorial primary principally between he and Yost.

As in Florida, the new Ohio Senator will have to run in 2026 to fill the balance of the term, and then again in 2028 when the seat comes in-cycle for its six-year term. Therefore, it would behoove the Republicans to have a candidate who is experienced in running statewide campaigns and has the type of fundraising base that can sustain him or her through what will be a very expensive four-year political period, particularly if outgoing Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) decides to run in either 2026, 2028, or both.

In Brown’s unsuccessful re-election bid this year, he became the second most prolific fundraiser of all Senate candidates, attracting over $103 million in cycle financial receipts. Therefore, GOP fundraising would become an even greater priority if Brown becomes the new Senator’s opponent.

One group essentially disqualified from receiving a Senate appointment in either Florida and Ohio are Republican US House members. Already down a potential three seats until special elections are held due to Trump Administration nominations, the scant Republican majority cannot afford further leakage. Therefore, neither Governor will choose a Representative for the Senate appointment.

Collins vs. Mills in Maine? Potential Senate Challenger to Lindsey Graham; Lara Trump Destroys Sen. Tillis in New Poll; Tenn. Gov Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 5, 2024

Senate

Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R)

Maine: Collins vs. Mills? — Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) did not close the door on a 2026 challenge to Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) when asked about the possibility late last week, but other comments and circumstances suggest that she is unlikely to launch such a campaign. In any event, expect the Democrats to field a strong candidate against Sen. Collins even if they fail to entice Gov. Mills into running.

As an aside, the governor was actually laudatory in a comment about Sen. Collins becoming the chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Gov. Mills stated that she is “pleased” Collins will have her new position and termed it as “an asset for the State of Maine.” These are not quite the comments one might expect from a future political opponent.

South Carolina: Potential Challenger to Sen. Graham — Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), who in November was just re-elected to his fifth term in the US House, is confirming reports that he is considering a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham or entering what will be an open race for governor. In the latter race, incumbent Henry McMaster (R) is ineligible to seek a third full term.

Both races would be considered uphill. While Rep. Norman is more conservative than Sen. Graham, the latter man has a strong relationship with President-Elect Donald Trump. Therefore, what might normally be considered a Trump endorsement for Norman may not materialize in this case. For governor, the potential leading candidate is two-term Attorney General Alan Wilson (R), son of veteran Congressman Joe Wilson (R-Springdale). Another reported potential gubernatorial candidate is Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston).

North Carolina: Lara Trump Destroys Sen. Tillis in New Poll — The Victory Insights data organization surveyed the North Carolina electorate about the upcoming 2026 US Senate race, and a Republican primary battle between Sen. Thom Tillis and Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump would break decidedly toward the challenger. In the general election, both Sen. Tillis and Lara Trump would each trail outgoing Gov. Roy Cooper (D) by one percentage point according to the VI data.

Victory Insights (Nov. 26-27 & 29; 800 registered North Carolina voters; interactive voice response system & text) finds that among an undisclosed sample of Republican primary voters, Trump, a native of North Carolina, would easily defeat Sen. Tillis in the GOP primary by a whopping 64-11 percent count. At this point, there is no indication that she would run, but this poll is certainly a warning sign for Sen. Tillis.

Governor

Tennessee: Rep. Burchett Considering Gov Race — Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee (R) is another of the state chief executives who is ineligible to seek re-election, thereby the Volunteer State will also feature an open governor’s campaign. Even before the 2024 election, Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) made clear his intention to run for governor. Now, Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville) is also confirming that he, too, is considering a run for the state’s top job.

We are sure to see crowded open seat gubernatorial primaries in both parties around the country in 2026. It already appears that Tennessee will certainly feature a hot contest to succeed Gov. Lee.

Early Senate 2022 Previews:
Florida & North Carolina

By Jim Ellis

Jan. 14, 2021 — Regardless of how many in-cycle Senate seats – there are 34 in the 2022 election cycle – come into political play, we can count on seeing Florida and North Carolina once again hosting crucial battleground campaigns.

Florida is always consistent in their close vote totals, particularly when remembering the 2000 presidential campaign — and pollsters, while typically forecasting tight finishes, have often missed the outcomes. In fact, the cumulative polling community has predicted close Democratic victories in the last four key statewide elections: two presidential (2016 & 2020), one senatorial (2018), one gubernatorial (2018), and been wrong on each occasion.

Since 2016, inclusive, Florida has hosted eight statewide races with Republicans winning seven. Yet, their average cumulative vote percentage for these eight victorious campaigns was just 50.7 percent, with the high point being 52.0 percent (Sen. Marco Rubio-R, 2016). Democrats recorded the low winning total: 50.04 percent — 6,753 votes from 8,059,155 votes cast; agriculture commissioner, 2018; winner Nikki Fried (D) vs. Matt Caldwell (R). The aggregate average among the statewide contests in these three most recent election years is 50.7 – 47.9 percent in the GOP’s favor.

With this background, Sen. Rubio will presumably seek a third term next year against what will surely be a highly competitive Democratic opponent. At this point, most of the speculation surrounds two Democratic House members, neither of whom has closed the door on either running for the Senate or challenging Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) as he seeks a second term.

Reps. Stephanie Murphy (D-Winter Park) and Val Demings (D-Orlando) are the two most prominently mentioned prospective contenders, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see one run for Senate and the other for governor. It is less likely that we would see a primary developing between the pair in one of the races.

Other names being floated are Rep. Charlie Crist (D-St. Petersburg), who is always mentioned as a potential statewide candidate because he previously served both as attorney general and governor and lost two other statewide campaigns. Other potential contenders are Rep. Ted Deutch (D-Boca Raton) and former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Miami). The state’s lone Democratic office holder, Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, is more often associated with running for governor as opposed to the Senate contest.

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NY-2: Trump for Congress?

NOTE: Happy Thanksgiving. Our Political Updates will return on Monday, Dec. 2.

By Jim Ellis

Lara Trump

Nov. 27, 2019 — Action about who the Republicans might nominate to succeed retiring New York Rep. Peter King (R-Seaford) is beginning to simmer, especially since the Club for Growth released a poll of the district’s GOP electorate late last week.

The Club contracted with WPA Intelligence to test Lara Trump, wife of Eric Trump and daughter-in-law of President Trump. Rumors had been surfacing that she might be contemplating running in the 2nd District; hence, the interest in gauging what type of support she might have for such a race. WPAi paired Lara with former congressman, Rick Lazio, who is considering becoming a candidate, in a hypothetical Republican primary. According to their data (Nov. 17-18; 400 likely NY-2 Republican primary voters), Lara Trump would lead Lazio by a whopping 53-19 percent.

The result is not particularly surprising because Donald Trump has a solid Republican base in the district. The WPAi survey finds the president’s favorability ratio at 78:19 percent within this GOP primary voter sample.

In response to the poll, Lara told Breitbart News that she’s, “ … incredibly honored by this showing of support from my fellow New Yorkers. While I would never close the door on anything in the future, right now I am focused on winning a second term for President Trump.” Lara serves as an advisor to the president’s re-election campaign.

So far, Islip Town Councilwoman Trish Bergin Weichbrodt and Suffolk County Elections Commissioner Nick LaLota are announced Republican candidates. State Assemblyman Mike LiPetri (R-Massapequa) has formed a congressional exploratory committee and is expected to join the race. Early last week, former Suffolk County executive, Steve Levy, and County Legislature Minority Leader Tom Cilmi both said they would not run for the seat.

The Democrats appear to be coalescing around Babylon Town Councilwoman Jackie Gordon, who is a retired Army officer. Gordon had announced a challenge campaign against Rep. King and raised just under $188,000 through the Sept. 30 deadline. The 2018 Democratic nominee, Liuba Grechen Shirley, who held the congressman to a surprisingly close 53-47 percent victory, has already announced that she will not enter the 2020 open seat campaign.

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