Tag Archives: New Hampshire

Can DeSantis Overtake Trump?

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 18, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump; Florida Gov. Ron
Desantis (R)

Polling: DeSantis vs. Trump — A series of flash polls taken in June and early July within 13 states provides us a glimpse into the path Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has ahead of him if he is to wrest the Republican presidential nomination away from former President Donald Trump. In summary, the deficit may be too large to overcome.

National polls have for weeks shown Trump holding huge leads over his GOP opponents, but these national surveys are virtually meaningless since the race will be determined in the state-by-state count. The winner must secure 1,234 pledged delegate votes from the 56 voting entities to clinch the party nomination.

The recent polling from the 13 states yields a combined 944 delegates, or 38.3 percent of the total Republican universe. The tallies come from 11 different pollsters during the period beginning June 5 and ending July 6.

Cumulatively, Trump would command a combined 47.4 percent support from these places, slightly less than he is showing nationally. Gov. DeSantis is so far recording 21.2 percent, and no other candidate even reaches five percent support. Therefore, the Florida governor must more than double his support base if he is to surpass Trump’s advantage.

Included in these 13 states are eight places where voters will cast their ballots on Super Tuesday, March 5, or before. The eight states are, in voting order: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, California, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas. Of the pre-Super Tuesday states, only Michigan is not included.

In the early states, Trump’s margin, according to the latest available polling data, is actually an even larger 55-22 percent over Gov. DeSantis, with 23 percent choosing one of the seven minor candidates. Therefore, the Trump lead in the critical momentum building early states is larger than in the at-large universe, thus making DeSantis’s task even more difficult.

In addition to the eight early states mentioned above, the remaining tested domains, again in voting order, are Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Montana. Of the 13, DeSantis’ strongest state is Wisconsin, where the Marquette University Law School survey, a frequent Badger State pollster, finds the Florida governor trailing Trump by just one percentage point.

The state will the largest chasm between the two men is Tennessee, where the Targoz Market Research survey finds a Trump margin of 61-12 percent. Perhaps most troubling to Gov. DeSantis is his most recent showing in his own home state of Florida. The latest Florida Atlantic University study that concluded on July 1 reveals a 50-30 percent margin in Trump’s favor.

This poll, however, may be an anomaly because no other data has shown such a large disparity. Since the beginning of May, one other research study finds Trump ahead by eight percentage points, while two more see a virtually even split between Trump and DeSantis. Still, for Trump to be doing this well in Gov. DeSantis’ home state is telling as to the strength of the former President’s national advantage.

While serious campaigning is just now getting underway, much can change between the present circumstances and the eventual outcome. With Iowa now moving their precinct caucuses from an original date of Feb. 5 to Jan. 15, the nomination campaign season grows even shorter.

For Gov. DeSantis, or any of the minor candidates to make a serious run at former President Trump, the activity pace will have to significantly quicken, and their momentum will need an abrupt about face.

Alaska’s Begich Joins House Race; Congressional Map Redraw Ordered in NY; Qualifying Candidates in UT-2;
A New NH Gubernatorial Candidate

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 17, 2023

House

Nick Begich III

Alaska: Begich Announces for House — Nick Begich III, who ran in the special at-large congressional election after Rep. Don Young (R) suddenly passed away, and then again in the 2022 general election announced that he will return to run again next year. He hopes for the opportunity of facing Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) one-on-one in the final Ranked Choice Voting round.

Both in the special and regular elections, Begich failed to reach second place, finishing third behind former Gov. Sarah Palin by three percentage points in each contest, while Peltola, coalescing the smaller Democratic base, was able to place first. For Begich to get the chance of facing Rep. Peltola in the final Ranked Choice round in 2024, the three finalists coming from the primary must hold the Congresswoman to less than a majority.

Though the Republican vote is much larger than the Democratic segment in Alaska, the GOP split has allowed Peltola to win the seat by attracting more second and third choice votes than did Palin. Begich will need a more united Republican Party behind him if he is to overcome Rep. Peltola. The AK-AL seat is the most Republican seat in the nation that sends a Democrat to the House. For the Republicans to hold their small House majority, the Alaska seat is fast becoming a must-win for them.

New York: Court Orders Cong Map Redraw — A lower appellate court last week sided with the Democratic lawsuit challenging New York’s court-drawn congressional map and ordered the Independent Redistricting Commission to begin a new re-mapping process. Republicans will then appeal to the state’s highest court, the New York Court of Appeals, which is the panel that made the original ruling that led to the creation of the current map.

Republicans gained seats on the current map; hence, the reason why Democrats are moving to replace the plan. It appears a final decision about whether we will see a new map for 2024 is undoubtedly months away.

UT-2: Two Candidates Qualify — The Utah Secretary of State announced late last week that the two special election congressional candidates who filed petitions to earn a ballot position have both officially qualified. Former state Rep. Becky Edwards and ex-Republican National Committeeman Bruce Hough both successfully submitted at least 7,000 petition signatures.

The pair will now join congressional legal counsel Celeste Maloy in a Sept. 5 special Republican primary election. Maloy prevailed in the pre-primary party convention. Doing so gave her an automatic ballot slot in the nomination campaign along with the official Republican Party endorsement. The last time Utah hosted a special election – 2017 in the 3rd Congressional District – the eventual primary winner, then-Provo Mayor John Curtis, did not win the convention. Therefore, it appears we may see a free-for-all campaign for the party nomination. The winner will face state Sen. Kathleen Riebe (D-Cottonwood Heights) in the Nov. 21 special general election. The Republican nominee will be favored in a seat the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+23. Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington) is resigning the seat on Sept. 15 due to family considerations.

Governor

New Hampshire: Manchester Mayor to Run Statewide — Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D), who already announced that she will not seek re-election to her current position but gave broad hints that she would enter the 2024 governor’s campaign, formally announced her intention to run statewide late last week.

With Gov. Chris Sununu (R) sending clear signals that he is unlikely to run for a fifth two-year term, it is very likely that Craig will be competing for an open seat. There will be a Democratic primary, however. Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington announced her gubernatorial campaign in early June.

The Executive Council, unique to New Hampshire, is an elected five-member panel from districts to serve as a check on gubernatorial power. A majority of the Executive Council can veto state contracts and nominations. The Council also has the power to issue pardons. Because Gov. Sununu says he will make a formal decision about whether to run again later this summer, no Republicans have yet come forward as potential gubernatorial candidates.

Trump, Biden Ahead by Wide Margins in New Poll; Navy SEAL Declares in Montana; Redistricting News from Alabama, North Carolina

New Hampshire GOP presidential poll results / WMUR TV graphic

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 29, 2023

President

New Hampshire Poll: St. Anselm College Releases Regular Poll — The New Hampshire Institute of Politics of St. Anselm College published their latest regular survey of Granite State voters (June 21-23; 1,065 registered New Hampshire voters; live interview) and sees former President Donald Trump gaining strength in the Republican primary while principal challenger Gov. Ron DeSantis is losing support. The partisan primary numbers find Trump leading Florida Gov. DeSantis, 47-19 percent with no other candidate exceeding six percent support.

On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden dominates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and author Marianne Williamson, 69-9-8 percent. These numbers exceed how the president is performing nationally. Since the state is unlikely to agree to moving their primary to comply with the new Democratic National Committee calendar, these numbers suggest that Biden could win a write-in campaign against his two intra-party challengers even if he doesn’t enter the official Democratic primary.

In hypothetical general election pairings, President Biden would lead both former President Trump and Gov. DeSantis with the same 49-40 percent spread. This data suggests there is less chance that New Hampshire will become a major general election Republican conversion target.

Senate

Montana: Retired Navy SEAL Declares Candidacy with NRSC Endorsement — Retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy (R) announced his US Senate candidacy Tuesday. Immediately, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, with its chairman being Montana’s junior Sen. Steve Daines, endorsed Sheehy’s candidacy. The Montana Senate race is expected to be one of the hottest campaigns in the country as Republicans attempt to deny incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) a fourth term.

Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive), who is also expected to join the race, responded with a Tweet saying, “congratulations to Mitch McConnell and the party bosses on getting their chosen candidate. Now Washington has two candidates – Tim Sheehy and Jon Tester – who will protect the DC cartel.” Early polling shows Rep. Rosendale beginning the race with a substantial lead, so we can expect both a hot general election campaign, and an equally tough Republican nomination contest next year in Big Sky Country.

House

Alabama: Governor Calls Special Redistricting Session — To comply with the US Supreme Court ruling on the Alabama racial gerrymandering case that went against the state, Gov. Kay Ivey (R) said that she will call a special redistricting session for the purposes of drawing a new map to comply with the decision. The legislature will report on July 17 to begin the process.

Since Alabama is a Super Tuesday state and is holding its regular primary on March 5, time is short to draw a new map and obtain the necessary judicial approvals. The ruling and new map is expected to give the Democrats an extra seat in the Alabama US House delegation that currently stands at 6R-1D.

SCOTUS: North Carolina Case Ruling — In an unsurprising 6-3 ruling, the US Supreme Court ruled against the state of North Carolina on the subject of redistricting. Legal analyst Derek Muller of the Election Law Blog describes the crux of the state’s argument as saying, “the state constitution or state judiciary cannot constrain the state legislature exercising power under the Elections Clause.” Predictably, the justices ruled that the judiciary does have the authority to involve itself in redistricting decisions but underscored that the Supreme Court has the power to restrain lower courts from taking too much power away from the legislative bodies.

Largely because the North Carolina state Supreme Court has already reconsidered its previous partisan gerrymandering decision, the high court confined itself to the judicial power question.

Primary Maneuverings; Tiffany Pegged in Wisconsin; UT-2 Special Election Debates; Sununu Retiring?

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 21, 2023

President

South Carolina: Republicans Opt for Later Primary — South Carolina moving to first position is the focal point of the Democrats’ new presidential pre-Super Tuesday primary calendar, but some of the affected states are not in agreement. Georgia, for example, voted not to adopt the Democratic National Committee recommendation and New Hampshire is sure to follow suit. Michigan has agreed, and both parties will vote on Feb. 27.

Over the weekend, the South Carolina Republican Party convention delegates voted to hold the state’s Republican primary on Feb. 24. Democrats have already chosen Feb. 3. Therefore, it is likely the state will hold two primaries, one for each party. Holding separate primary days in this state has previously happened. Both Palmetto State parties want South Carolina to continue having a premier primary, so the state is likely to make scheduling accommodations for each political entity.

Senate

Wisconsin: GOP Convention Favors Rep. Tiffany — The Wisconsin Republican Party convention conducted straw polls of those who attended over the weekend, and though it was no surprise that former President Donald Trump out-polled Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (53-34 percent), much of the attention fell to the US Senate contest. Since Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Green Bay) announced last week that he would not run for the Senate, the party is in need of a strong challenger to oppose two-term incumbent Tammy Baldwin (D) next year.

A strong plurality of party delegates are now looking to Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua), who is indicating he has some interest in the statewide race. A total of 35 percent of the delegates voted for Rep. Tiffany as their first choice to oppose Sen. Baldwin. Former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke was second with 19 percent, with businessman and former statewide candidate Kevin Nicholson, ex-state Sen. Roger Roth, and businessmen Eric Hovde and Scott Mayer following with 16, 11, 8 and 1 percent, respectively. None from this group are official candidates.

House

UT-2: Special Convention, Debates Scheduled — The Utah Republican Party has scheduled the special 2nd District GOP live nominating convention for this coming Saturday, June 24 in the city of Delta, which is in the geographical center of the sprawling CD that stretches from the city of Farmington, through the western Salt Lake City suburbs and then all the way to the Arizona border. Democrats are meeting in a virtual convention on June 28.

The 2nd District Republican delegates will vote among the 13 filed Republicans to send one into the special Sept. 5 primary as the official party endorsed candidate. Democrats have three candidates including the favorite for the nomination, state Sen. Kathleen Riebe (D-Cottonwood Heights). The delegates will continue the voting process until one candidate receives majority support. This individual will automatically be placed on the primary ballot. Other candidates wishing to contest the nomination will be required to file 7,000 valid registered voter petition signatures from the party for which they are attempting to qualify.

Republican debates have also been scheduled for the special election. The northern Utah forum was held Tuesday, with the southern district event on Thursday. Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington), for family reasons, is resigning his seat on Sept. 15. The special general election will be held on Nov. 21. Republicans are favored to hold the UT-2 seat which the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+23.

Governor

New Hampshire: Gov. Sununu Leaning Toward Retirement — In a radio interview Monday, four-term Gov. Chris Sununu (R) said, “I don’t think I’m going to run again,” but indicated he would make a firm decision this summer.

Gov. Sununu is only the second four-term governor in state history; no one has served five terms. New Hampshire, along with neighboring Vermont are the only two states that have two-year gubernatorial terms. Already, Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington have indicated they will compete for the Democratic nomination. In an open situation, the New Hampshire state house would be a prime Democratic conversion target.

More Republicans to Enter Presidential Race; Dodgers Great Garvey Considers Running for Senate; A Democratic House Challenger Switches Up; New Hampshire Gov Candidate Announces

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 5, 2023

President

June 7: Two Announcements — It appears three more Republicans will soon enter the presidential contest, two on the same day. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will announce his 2024 presidential campaign tomorrow, Tuesday, June 6, at a town hall in Manchester, New Hampshire. Former Vice President Mike Pence and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum are reportedly preparing announcements for this Wednesday, June 7, which would expand the official field to nine candidates with others, such as New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu looming as potential candidates.

Senate

Steve Garvey, former LA Dodgers great

California: Baseball Great May Enter Senate Race — Retired Los Angeles Dodger and San Diego Padre Steve Garvey (R) is considering entering the open US Senate race according to a story in the Los Angeles Times. Though Garvey has been retired as a player for 36 years after playing from 1969-1987, he still serves as an expert commentator in Major League Baseball, and his name remains well known in California’s two largest metro areas, Los Angeles and San Diego. For Republicans to have any chance in such a large state, they must begin with a candidate who is already well known.

While any Republican has little chance of winning a California general election, placing first in a crowded all-party jungle primary could be another story. With at least three strong Democrats in the open primary race, Reps. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), Katie Porter (D-Irvine), and Adam Schiff (R-Burbank), a unified minority Republican party coalescing behind a candidate like Steve Garvey would give the retired baseball player a strong chance of placing first in the jungle primary and securing a slot in the general election. This would mean that two of the three prominent House members would be eliminated in the March 5 primary election. This is a developing story.

House

CA-45; 47: One Challenger Switches Races — California Board of Equalization member Mike Schaefer (D), an announced congressional candidate for the 45th District seat that Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) holds, has decided to end his campaign and re-establish it in neighboring District 47, which will be an open seat.

The Democratic side in the Steel district is packed. Garden Grove City Councilwoman Kim Nguyen, and attorneys Cheyenne Hunt, Aditya Pat, and Jimmy Phan are all announced and active candidates. The 47th District, which Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) is vacating to run for Senate, finds state Sen. David Min (D-Irvine), television writer Lori Kirkland Baker, and several minor candidates running.

With Sen. Min’s recent conviction for drunk driving, and ex-Rep. Harley Rouda (D) having to withdraw for health reasons, Schaefer perceives an opening. The eventual November Democratic finalist will likely oppose Republican former state assemblyman and 2022 congressional finalist Scott Baugh. The California all-party jungle primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Governor

New Hampshire: New Democrat Comes Forward for Gov Race ‘24 — New Hampshire Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (D) declared late last week that she will enter the 2024 governor’s race. The Executive Council, unique to New Hampshire, is a five-member elected board that provides a check on the governor’s power. Previously, Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D) announced that she will not seek re-election to her current position and instead filed a gubernatorial exploratory committee.

Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is not expected to seek a fifth two-year term, instead likely moving forward with a presidential bid. Therefore, an open governor’s race would be highly competitive in New Hampshire, which still qualifies as a swing state where either party can sweep a statewide ticket.

Several Republicans have been discussed as gubernatorial possibilities in the event that Sununu does not run. The most prominent in terms of saying he would enter an open race is former State Senate President Chuck Morse, who lost the 2022 US Senate primary by one percentage point.

Sununu Gaining Ground in NH; Becker Passes in Nevada; A Utah Mayor to Challenge Romney; Poll Shows tight North Carolina Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 25, 2023

President

Gov. Chris Sununu (R)

New Hampshire: Movement for Sununu — The National Research, Inc. polling firm, surveying for the American Greatness organization, tested the New Hampshire Republican electorate and found Gov. Chris Sununu (R), who will likely soon enter the presidential contest, gaining ground. He will obviously need to score well before his home electorate if he is to become a viable national contender.

According to the NR data (May 15-17; 500 likely New Hampshire Republican presidential primary voters), former President Donald Trump continues to lead the group of candidates with 39 percent support. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is second with 18%, with Gov. Sununu now close behind at 17 percent. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy surprisingly rose to the top of the second tier with six percent. No other candidate or potential contender even broke the three percent threshold.

Senate

Nevada: Another Takes Pass — April Becker, the Republican congressional nominee who held Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) to a 52-48 percent re-election victory last November and was reported to be considering entering the 2024 US Senate race, has made a decision about her political future. Instead of running for the Senate next year, she will launch a campaign for the Clark County Commission. At this point, it appears that disabled American veteran Sam Brown could become the leading GOP Senate candidate.

Utah: Local GOP Mayor to Challenge Sen. Romney — Riverton Mayor Trent Skaggs (R) announced through a video presentation that he will challenge Sen. Mitt Romney in the impending GOP primary. It is likely that Skaggs will qualify through the convention process, while Sen. Romney will be forced into the signature petition qualification route. Earlier, state House Speaker Brad Wilson had filed a US Senate exploratory committee. Former US representative and Fox News contributor Jason Chaffetz is also said to be weighing his potential opportunities in a race against Sen. Romney.

In any event, having to fight a primary opponent is a likelihood for the incumbent Sen. Romney.

Governor

Kentucky: Poll Shows Tight Race — Just after last week’s Kentucky Republican primary nominated Attorney General Daniel Cameron to challenge Gov. Andy Beshear (D), the co/efficient GOP polling firm, for the Cameron campaign, went into the field. The survey (May 18-19; 987 likely 2023 Kentucky general election voters) sees Gov. Beshear holding only a two-point, 45-43 percent, edge over AG Cameron.

The closeness of this ballot test result is surprising considering Gov. Beshear’s job approval rating index is very favorable. Expect this race to be in competitive mode all the way through the November election.

NH Gov. Sununu Edges Closer to Presidential Candidacy; New Dem Emerges in MD Senate Race; Possible Challenger to Tenn. Sen. Blackburn; Radzius is In & Out in NY-3

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 23, 2023

President

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R)

Gov. Chris Sununu: Moving Toward Running — New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu said at the end of last week that he will make a formal announcement about his potential presidential candidacy by the end of this month. Reading the political tea leaves suggests that he will enter the race but will forego a fifth run for governor later in the cycle presuming he fails to win the Republican presidential nomination. The Granite State has no term limits in place for the office of governor; also, governors serve two-year terms, not four as in most states.

Polls suggest that he will be a factor in the New Hampshire primary, which is still the first such state on the Republican calendar. A good showing in the Granite State could provide him some momentum for other places particularly in the New England region. Looking at the bigger picture, another entry again makes the GOP race easier for former President Donald Trump.

Senate

Maryland: New Democrat Comes Forth — Joining the Maryland open US Senate Democratic primary race is telecom company executive and Gulf War veteran Juan Dominguez. He announced his candidacy at the end of last week. It is doubtful he will be a top-tier contender, since he must battle US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac), Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, and Montgomery County Councilman Will Jawando at a minimum. Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Takoma Park) and former Rep. John Delaney (D) also are potential candidates.

The May 14, 2024, plurality Democratic primary winner is a lock to succeed retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D) in November.

Tennessee: Potential Democratic Challenger — Tennessee state Rep. Gloria Johnson (D-Nashville), who was one vote away from being expelled from the House for her support of the gun control insurrection at the state Capitol earlier this year, said over the weekend that she is considering entering the US Senate race to challenge incumbent Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn.

Sen. Blackburn is poised for re-election and will be very difficult to unseat in a state that Donald Trump carried 61-37 percent in 2020. Sen. Blackburn defeated former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D), 55-44 percent, to initially win her seat in 2018.

House

NY-3: In and Out — As fast as New York television reporter Darius Radzius (D) entered the congressional race with the hope of challenging embattled freshman Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island) last week, he just as quickly closed his committee with the Federal Election Commission and withdrawn his candidacy “for personal reasons.”

Former state Sen. Anna Kaplan and Nassau County Legislator Josh Lafazan are the two most prominent Democrats to so far come forward. Former US Rep. Tom Suozzi (D), who left the seat in 2022 to run a long-shot gubernatorial campaign, says he is considering launching a comeback congressional race. Republicans are likely to find a new candidate, possibly in the person of state Sen. Jack Martins (R-Mineola), should Rep. Santos be convicted in court, expelled from the House, or defeated in a Republican primary.