Tag Archives: J.D. Vance

Ohio Gov. DeWine Soon to Announce New Senator to Replace J.D. Vance

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 13, 2025

Senate

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R)

At a news conference at the end of last week, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) indicated that he will “probably” name a replacement for resigned Sen. J.D. Vance (R) this week. Vance, elected Vice President, resigned on Jan. 10 to prepare for his Inauguration.

There has been much speculation around who Gov. DeWine will choose, and he and his staff members have been tight-lipped throughout the process. Local media reports suggest that Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R) is the favorite for the appointment, but he has, heretofore, indicated an unwillingness to accept, saying rather that he wants to stay in Ohio to compete in the open 2026 Governor’s race. DeWine is ineligible to seek a third term under the state’s term limits law.

Late last week, however, Lt. Gov. Husted seemed more open to a Senate appointment, saying “we’re considering all of the options,” when asked if he was interested in replacing Sen. Vance.

Whoever the Governor appoints will have to run in a special election to serve the balance of the term in 2026, and then again in 2028 for a full six-year stint when the seat again comes in-cycle. One Democrat waiting in the wings to possibly run again is former three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost his seat in November to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R). Brown has broadly hinted that his career in electoral politics has not yet come to a close.

Other names have been bandied about. According to a report from Cleveland’s NewsChannel5.com, the other potential options if Husted decides he wants to remain in the Governor’s race include former Ohio Republican Party chair and ex-US Senate candidate Jane Timken, State Treasurer Robert Sprague, former state Rep. Jay Edwards (R) who was chairman of the House Finance Committee, Secretary of State Frank LaRose, and ex-state Sen. Matt Dolan (R). The latter two men were unsuccessful 2024 Senate candidates.

Several Ohio US House members would be considered as potential appointees in a typical year, but not in 2025. With the Republicans having only a current 218-215 majority because of a resignation and a presidential appointment, and another coming when Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is confirmed as US Ambassador to the United Nations, the scant Republican majority is too small for DeWine and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) to appoint Representatives to fill their respective Senate vacancies.

Gov. DeSantis will appoint a replacement for Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio (R-FL) when he resigns from the Senate after his confirmation is secured.

Husted will likely get the appointment if he so desires. Back in 2018 when then-Attorney General DeWine was first running for Governor, Husted, then Secretary of State, and then-Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor were his major Republican primary opponents. When it appeared that DeWine and Husted would split the moderate/centrist Republican vote, possibly meaning that neither would win the primary, Husted offered DeWine a deal.

In his suggested approach, Husted said he would drop down to the Lieutenant Governor’s race and endorse DeWine if Dewine would support him for the secondary position with the two then effectively running as a team. DeWine agreed, and the plan worked.

Though Husted could likely claim the Senate appointment as a political payback if he so chose, the campaign road is not altogether easy. Even with being granted a seat in the Senate, Husted would still have to defend in 2026, and possibly against Sherrod Brown who raised $103-plus million in his losing 2024 effort, and then run again for the full term two years later as mentioned above. This means Husted (and any other appointee) would have to be in constant fundraising and campaign mode realistically over four consecutive years.

Considering President-Elect Donald Trump’s three consecutive victories in Ohio, including his 11-point win in November, DeWine winning in 2018 by five percentage points when polling suggested he would lose by that amount, and Vice President-Elect Vance and Sen. Moreno topping the vote in 2022 and 2024, Ohio has turned consistently red.

Therefore, it is most probable that the newly appointed Senator will be rated as the favorite to win in ’26, and most likely in 2028. Yet, constantly being in campaign mode for a long period of time before a big state electorate will not be easy. Of course, competing in a tough open Governor’s primary and general election is not a sure-fire draw either.

Ohio will again become a significant political state in the coming elections, with the marathon Senate campaign cycles effectively beginning for real as early as this week when Gov. DeWine is expected to reveal who earns his appointment.

Replacing Rubio; Vance Replacement Considerations in Ohio; Two California House Seats Called

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024

Senate

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R)

Florida: Speculation About Rubio Replacement — Rumors are being quashed that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) would either appoint himself or his wife, Casey DeSantis, to replace Sen. Marco Rubio (R) when he resigns to become Secretary of State.

With President-Elect Donald Trump already selecting three US House members for appointments, including Florida Congressman Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) as National Security Advisor as well as Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) as the nation’s next Attorney General, none of the state’s 19 other Republican House members will be considered for the Senate appointment since the new House majority is expected to be small. Rather, topping the list of potential appointees appear to be Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nunez, state Attorney General Ashley Moody, and former Florida House Speaker Jose Oliva. Gaetz immediately announced his resignation from the House after President-Elect Donald Trump’s controversial announcement that he has appointed Gaetz as AG. With another House member being chosen for the new Administration, and the majority not yet being completely cemented, the Republicans may be flirting with political “gimbal lock” that could potentially lead to the Democrats gaining control of the body. Much more to come on this developing situation.

Gov. DeSantis will fill the vacancy when Sen. Rubio resigns after the latter’s confirmation as Secretary of State. The new senator will then run to fill the balance of the term in 2026, and again in 2028 for a full six-year term. Sen. Rubio was re-elected to a third term in 2022.

Ohio: Ramaswamy Out of Senate Consideration — Former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who President-Elect Trump appointed along with Elon Musk to head a new official government efficiency operation — known as DOGE, or the Department of Government Efficiency — confirmed that he is no longer under consideration to replace Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance in the US Senate.

Vance will resign from the Senate at some point before being sworn in as vice president on Inauguration Day, Jan. 20, 2025. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) will then appoint a replacement to serve the balance of the current term. Since Vance was elected in 2022, the new appointed senator will run to complete the current term in 2026, and then again in 2028 when the seat next comes in-cycle.

House

CA-27: Democrat Whitesides Unseats Rep. Garcia — Ex-Virgin Atlantic CEO George Whitesides has defeated three-term Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) by a 51.3 – 48.7 percent margin in the state’s 27th District, which is fully contained in northern Los Angeles County. The projection was made Tuesday, and Rep. Garcia conceded the election.

The result is not particularly surprising. The California Citizens Redistricting Commission members increased the Democratic base in this district making it a D+8 as opposed to a D+5 under the previous map. The ratings are taken from the FiveThirtyEight data organization that profiles all 435 US House seats. The Down Ballot political blog statisticians ranked CA-27 as the fourth most vulnerable seat in the House Republican Conference.

Rep. Garcia first won a differently configured district, numbered CA-25, in a 2020 special election. He was re-elected in the former 25th later that year, and then won again in new District 27 two years ago. In all three previous elections, Garcia defeated former state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D).

CA-47: Dems Hold Open Seat — Democratic state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) recorded a come-from-behind victory over former state assemblyman and 2022 congressional general election finalist Scott Baugh (R) in California’s open 47th District with a 50.9 – 49.1 percent victory margin according to a projection made Tuesday. Republicans had hopes of converting this seat from the Democratic column, but the presidential election year turnout model in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+6 was too much for Baugh to overcome.

The Min victory means only five uncalled races remain, four of which lie in California. The current House count now stands at 219R – 211D. The 47th District was open because incumbent Katie Porter (D-Irvine) risked the seat to run unsuccessfully for the US Senate.

An Even Newer Senator
Will Emerge Post-Election

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2024

Senate

Vice President-Elect and current Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance.

Even with 2024 Senate elections now projected as final, there will be another seat to fill soon.

Currently, with the Arizona race now called for Phoenix Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego (Pennsylvania may still go to a recount if the final margin falls to within half a percentage point), more Senate political intrigue will soon take center stage in the Buckeye State.

Because Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance has been elected vice president, an opening will occur once he resigns his current position prior to assuming his new national VP post. That means that Gov. Mike DeWine (R) will choose Sen. Vance’s replacement, and his decision may not only affect the Senate.

Ohio Gov. DeWine is serving his final two years as governor. When he first ran for his current post in 2018 a highly competitive Republican primary was forming with he, then-Secretary of State Jon Husted, and then-Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor. DeWine, the Ohio attorney general at the time after previously serving in the US Senate — as lieutenant governor, in the US House, and the state Senate — was favored by most to win the primary, but the outcome was not certain.

Just before the filing deadline, Husted approached the attorney general and offered to drop out of the governor’s race if DeWine would support him for lieutenant governor. In Ohio, the governor and lieutenant governor are individually elected. DeWine accepted and the two then ran successfully as a team.

Now we approach the beginning of the 2026 election cycle. Gov. DeWine cannot succeed himself and both Lt. Gov. Husted and Attorney General Dave Yost (R) have already announced their intentions to run for the state’s top position. Therefore, the new Senate appointment could be a very attractive option for one of the two. The other then benefits by having an easier run through the Republican gubernatorial primary.

Should such a deal emerge, and this assumes the governor doesn’t have other ideas for a replacement choice, a difficult intra-party battle could once again be avoided through a joint agreement.

One place the governor surely will not turn is to fill the Senate opening is the Ohio congressional delegation. With the Republican US House majority again becoming razor thin, the party leadership may not be able to relinquish a vote during the vacancy period associated with a special election to replace the chosen Ohio member. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that the governor will choose a sitting House member as his appointed senator.

In terms of the Senate, the timing of the appointment will be interesting. With Republican Bernie Moreno unseating veteran Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) last Tuesday and Vance leaving the Senate, freshman Moreno will likely become Ohio’s senior senator upon being sworn into office.

Yet, the timing of the resignation and appointment could well decide whether Moreno or the appointed lawmaker is the senior senator. Should Vance resign before the Senate convenes on Jan. 3, 2025 and DeWine makes a quick appointment, Moreno and the Senate-designee would be sworn in together.

Should Sen. Vance resign after the Senate is sworn in — he will become vice president on Jan. 20, 2025 — Moreno would become senior senator upon taking office with the appointed senator taking office a few days later.

With the victories of Moreno and Republican senators-elect Tim Sheehy (MT), David McCormick (PA), and Jim Justice (WV), the GOP will have 52 senators plus the Vance vacancy. It is likely they will want to hit the ground running with a new Majority Leader since current Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is stepping down from his post. Therefore, having an additional vote could be important if the Senate wants to consider major legislation early in the new Congress, so DeWine will be encouraged to make a quick appointment.

Appointing a Senate replacement for Vice President-Elect Vance apparently features many facets. Therefore, not only the individual chosen, but also the timing of the appointment would affect not only the personnel hierarchy but early significant legislation, as well.

Congress Convenes Tomorrow with 93 New Members; Early Reapportionment Projections

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 2, 2023

Congress

Montana’s Ryan Zinke (R-Whitehall) returns to the House.

New Members: Congress Convenes Tomorrow with 93 New Members — The 118th Congress is sworn into office tomorrow and like all others, this new assemblage is a unique group.

In the House, we see 85 freshmen members coming to Washington, including the dozen who won special elections during the session just ended. Additionally, one former member, Montana’s Ryan Zinke (R-Whitehall) who also served in the Trump Administration as Interior Secretary, returns to the House.

The Senate, exclusively due to retirements along with one appointed member, California Sen. Alex Padilla (D) seeking a full term, will only welcome eight new freshmen since all incumbents seeking re-election were victorious.

Of the 85 new House members, 46 are Republicans while 39 are members of the Democratic Party. Just over one-third of the incoming group will be serving in their first elected position, a total of 31. Conversely, 37 of the House freshmen have previously been elected to their respective state legislatures. The remaining 17 held other elected positions, typically at the local level as county or city officials.

In the Senate, only two of the eight incoming members have never before served in an elective office: Alabama’s Katie Britt (R) and J.D. Vance (R) of Ohio.

States

Reapportionment: Early Projections — Apparently, it is not too early to begin discussing which states may gain and lose representation in the 2030 census. The first concrete projections have been publicized based upon the country’s current growth trends since the 2020 census was completed.

No real surprises were among the first cut, as eight seats are projected to change states. In the 2020 census, only seven seats changed states. The early estimates suggest that Texas will again be the big gainer, with an additional three seats. This would increase the nation’s second largest population state to 41 seats, if the early guesstimates prove accurate. Florida could gain two seats, with Idaho, Utah, and Washington each gaining one seat.

The losing states would again be familiar, as Illinois and New York could be on a path to lose two seats apiece. Pennsylvania would again be slated to lose one. The new losing states would be Connecticut, New Jersey, and Wisconsin, all possibly losing one of their current districts. None of these projections are firm, and much will happen to change the national and regional growth rates in the coming eight years.

2024 Presidential Polls Already Emerging; CNN Exit Polling Numbers; Senate Election Turnout Stats; Sen. Kennedy Planning to Run for Gov?

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 16, 2022

President

Former President Donald Trump; Florida Gov. Ron Desantis (R)

New Polling: Already Testing for 2024 — The House of Representatives isn’t even decided yet, and already we see a series of polls testing newly re-elected Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) pitted against former President Donald Trump. The WPA Intelligence polling series finds the Florida governor opening up big Republican primary leads against Trump in several important nomination states: Iowa (+11), New Hampshire (+15), Texas (+11), Georgia (+20), and of course, Florida (+20). Count on presidential fever going non-stop for the next two years.

Voting

Exit Polling: CNN Releases Results — Though exit polling has not proven particularly accurate in past elections, looking at the results of the organization’s data still has value. A quick glance at the CNN data brings forth a couple of key observations. First, the Independent vote, which polling suggested through most of the election cycle was moving toward the Republicans, came back to the Democrats at election time. Self-described moderates were breaking Democratic, 56-41 percent. Those describing themselves as Independents voted Democratic in a 49-47 percent split. Within the cell segment, Independent women moved toward the Democrats in a 54-42 percent clip.

On the other end of the spectrum, Republicans actually were making their marks with minority voters, at least according to this data. Republicans were able to attract 39 percent of the Hispanic vote, 40 percent among Asians, and 13 percent with black voters. All of these numbers are an improvement from immediate past elections.

Additionally, while all men break toward the Republicans 56-42 percent, all women prefer the Democrats, 53-45 percent. Still, CNN measures that the national vote went Republican in a 51.3 – 46.7 percent swing even though Democrats held the Senate majority and it appears House control will come down to a minimum number of seats.

Senate

Senate States: Key Turnout Stats — Now that we are seeing closer to final turnout numbers in many places, we have derived some interesting participation statistics from the most competitive US Senate states.

In Georgia, the turnout may fall just short of the 4.0 million voters who cast ballots in 2018. The Nevada turnout, projected to just exceed the 1 million mark, will be an approximate four percent increase over 2018. In Wisconsin, once the final turnout report is released will likely show the same relative participation rate as recorded in 2018.

The Pennsylvania turnout looks to be up five percent from 2018. Florida, where Sen. Marco Rubio won an impressive 58-41 percent victory over US Rep. Val Demings (D-Orlando), who was clearly one of the strongest Democratic candidates in the nation, looks to be six percent under 2018’s total. In Iowa and Ohio, where Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) won an eighth term and Republican J.D. Vance held the open seat over US Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown), turnout appears to be down just under nine percent when compared to the 2018 participation rate in both states.

Governor

Louisiana: Sen. Kennedy Releases Poll — Armed with a fresh six years in the Senate with his 62 percent re-election vote against nine opponents, Sen. John Kennedy (R) is now admitting he is considering a run for governor next year when incumbent John Bel Edwards (D) will be ineligible to seek a third term. He then released a Torchlight Strategies poll (Nov. 9-12; 800 likely 2023 Louisiana jungle primary voters; live interview & text) that posted him to a 22-18-13-7-6 percent lead over state Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson (D), attorney general and former Congressman Jeff Landry (R), Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser (R), and fellow US Sen. Bill Cassidy (R), respectively.

Bolduc Pulls Into Tie in NH; Conflicting Senate Polls in Ohio;
PA Polls Show Dr. Oz Ahead

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 1, 2022

Senate

Retired Army Gen. Don Bolduc (R)

New Hampshire: Bolduc Pulls Into Tie — The co/efficient firm tested the New Hampshire electorate (Oct. 25-26; 1,098 likely New Hampshire general election voters; live interview & text) and sees retired Army Gen. Don Bolduc coming all the way back to even in what was believed to be his long-shot chance against Sen. Maggie Hassan (D). With Republican leaders coming within a percentage point of denying him the party nomination, Gen. Bolduc has successfully rebounded to competitive status in the short time since the Sept. 13 primary. The co/efficient ballot test finds both candidates pulling 46 percent preference.

Though the reported vote totals are customarily low in New Hampshire, only 21,089 recorded votes so far according to the Target Smart data organization representing 16.5 percent of the number voting early in 2020, Republicans are up 4.7 percent over their previous performance while Democrats are down .7 percent.

Ohio: Conflicting Five Point Leads — Two polling entities, surveying within the same time period, arrive at diametrically different results. In fact, both project the Ohio Senate candidate they see as the leader to a five-point advantage. Center Street PAC (Oct. 24-26; 508 likely Ohio general election voters) posts the race in Rep. Tim Ryan’s (D-Warren/ Youngstown) favor with a 47-42 percent margin. The Cygnal polling firm (Oct. 22-26; 1,817 likely Ohio general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) comes to a wholly different conclusion: Republican J.D. Vance leading 49-44 percent.

The preponderance of October polling is more consistent with Cygnal’s findings. In the last 16 surveys, Vance has led in 11 of the ballot tests, Rep. Ryan in three, and in two the candidates were tied. So far, however, early voting favors the Democrats. Based upon their 2020 performance, the Democratic participation is up 3.5 percentage points while the Republicans are down 4.4 points.

Pennsylvania: Confirming Polls — At the end of last week, Insider Advantage became the first to publish a survey after the Pennsylvania Senate debate and projected the Republican nominee, Dr. Mehmet Oz, to be holding a 48-45 percent edge. Now, we see two more pollsters coming to similar conclusions.

The Wick Insights research firm tested the PA electorate (Oct. 26-27; 1,000 likely Pennsylvania general election voters; online) and sees a 48-46 percent Dr. Oz lead. The co/efficient firm was also in the field (Oct. 26-28; 1,716 likely Pennsylvania general election voters; live interview & text) and likewise found a 48-45 percent Oz edge over Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D).

The latter poll found both Senate candidates saddled with upside-down favorability indexes. Dr. Oz, as he has for most of the election cycle, records a higher negative than positive ratio, 37:46 percent. Fetterman now joins Dr. Oz in negative territory with an index of 43:49 percent.

House

NH-1: Rep. Pappas’ Advantage — The 1st District of New Hampshire has seen more incumbents lose since 2004 than any CD in the country. Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester), however, is working on bucking that trend. Running for a third term, the co/efficient New Hampshire poll (Oct. 25-29; 525 likely NH-1 general election voters; live interview & text) projects the congressman to a four-point 48-44 percent lead over former Trump White House aide Karoline Leavitt (R).

NH-2: Upset Possibility — As part of their statewide survey, co/efficient also tested the state’s 2nd CD, which covers New Hampshire’s western sector. This sub-poll (Oct. 25-26; 573 likely NH-2 general election voters; live interview & text) finds challenger Robert Burns (R), the former Hillsborough County (Manchester) treasurer, edging five-term Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton), 44-43 percent.

Though this is the more Democratic seat of the state’s two districts – the FiveThirtyEight organization rates NH-2 as D+2 and NH-1 as R+1 – the 2nd CD may give the Republicans their better opportunity of claiming an upset on election night.

Conflicting Trends in Ohio; Johnson Opening Advantage in Wisconsin; Dead Heat in Pennsylvania

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 20, 2022

Senate

Ohio 2022 Senate candidates Rep. Tim Ryan (D) and author J.D. Vance (R)

Ohio: Conflicting Trends — In the mid-August through early September period, three pollsters found US Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown) snatching the polling lead away from GOP author J.D. Vance. The research entities Impact Research, Suffolk University, and Fallon Research, in studies conducted during the Aug. 17 through Sept. 11 time realm, found Rep. Ryan trending ahead with margins between one and six points.

Two news polls, however, see the race flipping back to Vance. Emerson College (Sept. 10-13; 1,000 likely Ohio voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the Civiqs survey research entity, polling for the Daily Kos Election site (Sept. 10-13; 780 likely Ohio general election voters), and in the field during the same period, see Vance now holding close leads of 44-40 and 48-45 percent, respectively.

Wisconsin: Trend Favors Sen. Johnson — Since the Aug. 9 Wisconsin primary, we’ve seen several polls conducted of the Wisconsin Senate campaign. Immediately after the nomination vote, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D) opened the general election cycle with a polling lead. Marquette University Law School, a regular Wisconsin pollster, found Barnes holding a 52-45 percent advantage over Sen. Ron Johnson (R) in their Aug. 10-15 poll of 713 likely Wisconsin general election voters.

Late last week, Marquette released a new survey (Sept. 6-11; 801 registered Wisconsin voters; live interview) and the law school research organization now posts Sen. Johnson to a slight 48-47 percent advantage. Civiqs, polling for the Daily Kos Election site (Sept. 10-13; 780 likely Wisconsin general election voters), confirms the Marquette result. They find Sen. Johnson up 49-48 percent. Though the lead is small, the Johnson trend line is positive.

House

OR-5: Getting Closer — The Democratic survey research firm Global Strategy Group, polling for the 314 Action super PAC (Sept. 1-8; 400 likely OR-5 general election voters) finds Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who defeated Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Canby) in the May primary election, leading businesswoman and former local mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R), by a tight 41-38 percent margin.

GSG finds the district statistics even closer, however. They see a Democratic partisan edge of just one percentage point, even though the party has a five-point voter registration advantage. In terms of the generic congressional vote, the Republicans have a one-point lead. Under various turnout models according to the GSG research, the race changes. If the turnout model is closer to what was found in the New Jersey and Virginia governors’ races (2021), a Biden+5 model, the congressional race becomes a dead heat at 40-40 percent. Under both a 2014 and 2020 turnout model (Biden+10), McLeod-Skinner would establish a 42-38 percent spread. The trouble for McLeod-Skinner, in a district that slightly leans Democratic, is that she doesn’t reach beyond the low 40s under any turnout model. This suggests that Chavez-DeRemer has serious upset potential.

PA-8: Dead Heat Developing — In what is appearing to be a classic example of a Democratic incumbent claiming independence but seeing Republican forces producing stats showing total compliance with the Biden agenda, the people of Pennsylvania’s northeast 8th Congressional District are dividing evenly.

The Republican polling entity, Cygnal, surveying for the Jim Bognet campaign (Sept. 6-8; 440 likely PA-8 general election voters), finds the two candidates, Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton) and Bognet, tied at 48-48 percent. At an R+8 partisan rating according to the FiveThirtyEight polling organization, PA-8 is the second-most Republican district in the country that elects a Democrat to the House.