Tag Archives: Club for Growth

Granger Goes Negative

(Granger Attack Ad)

By Jim Ellis

Feb. 17, 2020 — Veteran Texas Congresswoman Kay Granger (R-Ft. Worth) faces a serious Republican primary challenge that will be decided on March 3. With no public polling available, outside signs suggest the race is getting close. Otherwise, a 12-term incumbent would not be launching negative ads against her low name ID opponent.

Once the political domain of former US House Majority Leader Jim Wright (D), Texas’ 12th Congressional District has seen Granger dominate this area’s politics now for almost three decades. She became the first female mayor of Ft. Worth before winning her congressional seat in 1996, and now stands for a 13th term in the 2020 election.

The congresswoman’s GOP challenger is former Colleyville City Councilman Chris Putnam, who made himself wealthy in private business before running for political office. Putnam’s rise into politics is a familiar story. The local city council was blocking one of his business moves, so he decided to run himself and won. In the following election, he and his allies converted every seat on the panel. Putnam didn’t seek a second four-year term on the council, saying he had accomplished his original set of goals.

Now he is challenging Rep. Granger, even though his locality of Colleyville is not in the 12th District. Putnam raised significant money through the end of the year and has the wherewithal to add some more of his own should the situation call for such action. Of the $535,000-plus that he raised through the end of 2019, $250,000 was self-loaned.

For her part, Granger is taking this campaign seriously. She spent more than $1.1 million even before 2019 ended, and figures to spend whatever she needs to in 2020 to saturate her messages.

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Cheney to Remain in the House

By Jim Ellis

Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wilson/ Jackson)

Jan. 21, 2020 — When Wyoming Sen. Mike Enzi (R) decided to retire last May, it had been assumed that at-large Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wilson/ Jackson), the daughter of former vice president and at-large Wyoming Congressman Dick Cheney, would run for the seat. That is not the case, however. Late last week, Rep. Cheney announced that she will seek re-election later this year instead of entering the open Senate race.

When Cheney first ventured into elective politics she looked to run for the Senate, beginning with a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Enzi in 2014 that would later end before going to the ballot. She was then elected to the House two years later when at-large Rep. Cynthia Lummis (R) decided to retire after four terms.

Now with Lummis attempting to return to elective politics with her own Senate campaign, the statewide situation may significantly change. Many were waiting on the sidelines to see what Rep. Cheney would do in order to decide whether to run for the House or the Senate. Now, we may begin to see some serious candidate action, but much time remains for individuals to decide. The Wyoming candidate filing deadline is May 29 for the Aug. 18 primary.

In addition to former Congresswoman Lummis, the only two announced Republican Senate candidates are retiree Patrick Dotson and disabled veteran Josh Wheeler. Though Democrats will be severe underdogs here in the general election, three candidates have announced: college professor Merav Ben-David, actor Chuck Jagoda, and non-profit group executive Yana Ludwig.

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NY-2: Trump for Congress?

NOTE: Happy Thanksgiving. Our Political Updates will return on Monday, Dec. 2.

By Jim Ellis

Lara Trump

Nov. 27, 2019 — Action about who the Republicans might nominate to succeed retiring New York Rep. Peter King (R-Seaford) is beginning to simmer, especially since the Club for Growth released a poll of the district’s GOP electorate late last week.

The Club contracted with WPA Intelligence to test Lara Trump, wife of Eric Trump and daughter-in-law of President Trump. Rumors had been surfacing that she might be contemplating running in the 2nd District; hence, the interest in gauging what type of support she might have for such a race. WPAi paired Lara with former congressman, Rick Lazio, who is considering becoming a candidate, in a hypothetical Republican primary. According to their data (Nov. 17-18; 400 likely NY-2 Republican primary voters), Lara Trump would lead Lazio by a whopping 53-19 percent.

The result is not particularly surprising because Donald Trump has a solid Republican base in the district. The WPAi survey finds the president’s favorability ratio at 78:19 percent within this GOP primary voter sample.

In response to the poll, Lara told Breitbart News that she’s, “ … incredibly honored by this showing of support from my fellow New Yorkers. While I would never close the door on anything in the future, right now I am focused on winning a second term for President Trump.” Lara serves as an advisor to the president’s re-election campaign.

So far, Islip Town Councilwoman Trish Bergin Weichbrodt and Suffolk County Elections Commissioner Nick LaLota are announced Republican candidates. State Assemblyman Mike LiPetri (R-Massapequa) has formed a congressional exploratory committee and is expected to join the race. Early last week, former Suffolk County executive, Steve Levy, and County Legislature Minority Leader Tom Cilmi both said they would not run for the seat.

The Democrats appear to be coalescing around Babylon Town Councilwoman Jackie Gordon, who is a retired Army officer. Gordon had announced a challenge campaign against Rep. King and raised just under $188,000 through the Sept. 30 deadline. The 2018 Democratic nominee, Liuba Grechen Shirley, who held the congressman to a surprisingly close 53-47 percent victory, has already announced that she will not enter the 2020 open seat campaign.

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What the First Poll Shows in Alabama With Jeff Sessions Entering Race

By Jim Ellis

Former Senator and US Attorney General, Jeff Sessions (R)

Nov. 12, 2019 — The Club for Growth organization, the leadership of which had been encouraging former Alabama senator and US attorney general Jeff Sessions (R) to enter the state’s Senate race, conducted and released the first survey since Sessions announced his candidacy on Thursday.

WPA Intelligence administered the survey well before Sessions publicly declared, but just published the results over the weekend. The sampling period was Oct. 29-31, with a respondent universe of 511 likely Alabama Republican primary voters.

The results find Sessions leading the field with 36 percent voting preference. Auburn University former head football coach Tommy Tuberville is second with 23 percent support. The addition of Sessions to the field shows that Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile) dropping into a tie for third position with former state Supreme Court Chief Judge Roy Moore as the two record 11 percent apiece. Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill, the only current statewide elected official in the race, notches only six percent, and state Rep. Arnold Mooney (R-Shelby County) trails the entire field at just two percent.

If this poll is wholly accurate, it means that both Sessions and Tuberville would advance from the March 3 Super Tuesday primary into an April 14 run-off election to determine who will qualify for the general election opposite Democratic Sen. Doug Jones.

Just over two weeks before WPAi went into the field, the Cygnal polling organization tested the race. According to Cygnal (Oct. 10-12; 536 likely Alabama Republican primary voters), Tuberville led Rep. Byrne, 32-18 percent, and the two of them would have advanced into the second round. Secretary Merrill was next with 13 percent and Judge Moore followed with 11 percent, the same level of support that WPAi detected for the latter man when Sessions’ name was included. State Rep. Mooney records a similar one percent in this survey.

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Indiana Rep. Susan Brooks to Retire

By Jim Ellis

Rep. Susan Brooks represented Indiana’s 5th District, a reliably Republican district over the years.

June 18, 2019 — The 2019-20 House open seat count reached double-digits as Indiana Rep. Susan Brooks (R-Carmel) announced late last week that she would not seek a fifth term next year.

With Brooks retiring and Montana at-large Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-Bozeman) announcing that he will run for governor, the open seat count grows to 10 including the two North Carolina special congressional elections that will be filled on Sept. 10.

Most news outlets were reporting the Brooks announcement as a surprise, in large part because she chairs the National Republican Congressional Committee’s candidate recruitment operation. But, rumors of Brooks moving on from the House have circulated before, and she did attempt to become governor when incumbent Mike Pence left office after being selected as Donald Trump’s running mate. There was also speculation that she could leave the House next year in order to run for state attorney general.

Immediately after Pence left his Hoosier State gubernatorial re-election effort to campaign for vice president, an Indiana Republican Party committee was empowered to choose a new gubernatorial nominee. Rep. Brooks, along with fellow US Rep. Todd Rokita, declared for the special nomination, but the party committee members instead chose then-Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb who would go onto win the general election and now stands for re-election in 2020.

Rep. Brooks says her retirement decision is primed because of a desire to begin devoting her life to interests outside of politics. She will, however, continue in her NRCC role to lead the party’s recruitment apparatus in serving the balance of this current term.

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Today’s Special Election is Step 1
In Filling Vacant NC-9 Seat

By Jim Ellis

North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District

May 14, 2019 — Voters go to the polls today in North Carolina’s second 2019 special congressional election primary, this time in the Charlotte-anchored 9th District.

The seat, which begins in southeastern Charlotte and then travels along the South Carolina border to encompass the counties of Union, Anson, Richmond, Scotland, and Robeson, before turning northward to annex parts of Bladen, and Cumberland Counties – the latter entity includes the south Fayetteville suburban population center – has been vacant since the beginning of the year.

Originally, it appeared that Republican Mark Harris, who had denied Rep. Bob Pittenger (R-Charlotte) re-nomination in the 2018 Republican primary, had defeated businessman Dan McCready (D) to keep the seat in the GOP column. But, voter fraud allegations in Bladen County, which have led to criminal charges being filed, caused the state Board of Elections to deny Harris a certificate of election. After a prolonged period, made even longer when the board members were terminated and new appointments made, the panel members ordered a new election.

Today marks the first in what could be a series of three elections to determine who will succeed the defeated Rep. Pittenger. McCready returns for the special election and is unopposed in today’s Democratic primary. Therefore, he will automatically advance to the general election. The Republicans feature a field of 10 candidates, but only three, and possibly four, are in serious contention.

If no Republican receives at least 30 percent of the vote tonight, a run-off between the top two finishers will be held on Sept. 10. If the first-place finisher exceeds 30 percent, the general election, between the Republican winner and McCready, will then move to the aforementioned September date. If no one reaches 30 percent, thus requiring the run-off, the special general will occur on Nov. 5.

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NC-3: Republicans Generate a Run-off, While Democrats Have a Nominee

By Jim Ellis

North Carolina’s 3rd Congressional District

May 1, 2019 — Almost 69,000 eastern North Carolina voters cast ballots in the special Republican and Democratic primaries yesterday to choose a successor to the late Rep. Walter Jones (R-Farmville) who passed away in February.

Since Republicans featured a field of 17 candidates, it appeared obvious that no one would reach the 30 percent threshold necessary to nominate. That proved to be true, and second-place finisher, Joan Perry, confirmed last night that she will petition the NC Board of Elections for a run-off election. Perry, a Kinston area physician in Lenoir County, will face state Rep. Greg Murphy (R-Greenville), another physician and first-place finisher, in a secondary Republican nomination election to be scheduled for July 9.

The Democrats, on the other hand, chose their nominee last night. Former Greenville Mayor Allen Thomas easily captured the party nod garnering just over 50 percent of the vote, 20 percentage points more than he needed. He defeated retired Marine Corps Colonel Richard Bew (25.2 percent), New Bern Mayor Dana Outlaw (12.6 percent), and three minor candidates. none of whom reached double-digit support. Thomas now directly advances to the Sept. 10 special general election.

Rep. Murphy took advantage of his Greenville base, the largest population center in the 3rd District that encompasses most of coastal North Carolina, including the Outer Banks region. Dr. Murphy scored 22.5 percent of the vote, or 9,507 votes. Dr. Perry, with support from outside national and state pro-life organizations, drew 15.4 percent translating into 6,515 votes.

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