Monthly Archives: November 2023

Utah Rep. Considering Senate Run; Santos Won’t Seek Re-Election; Alaska Lt. Gov. Dahlstrom in House Race; College Recruiting Ohio Rep.

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 20, 2023

Senate

Utah Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo)

Utah: Rep. Curtis Reportedly Considering Senate Run — “The drumbeat from Utahans around the state asking me to reconsider my decision last month to stay out of the Senate race has been constant and consistent,” Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo) said yesterday. “These voices, getting louder and more organized, are increasingly difficult to ignore.” Originally, Rep. Curtis indicated he would not seek the state’s open US Senate seat now that Sen. Mitt Romney (R) has chosen to retire. Now, apparently, a Curtis entry into the race could be imminent.

Rep. Curtis was elected to the 3rd District House seat in a 2017 special election to replace then-Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R) who resigned to accept a position in the media. Curtis has been easily re-elected ever since. Prior to his service in Congress, the representative was twice elected mayor of Provo. Seven Republicans have already announced for the Senate, the most prominent of which is former state House Speaker Brad Wilson.

House

NY-3: Rep. Santos Won’t Seek Re-Election — Embattled New York Congressman George Santos (R-Long Island), understanding that he cannot win re-election considering the ethics and criminal investigations that plague him, announced that he will not seek re-election next year. The move may not be enough for those who want him out of the House now. According to reports covering the House Ethics Committee report about Santos’ activities, the content is damning to the point that he may now be vulnerable to another budding expulsion resolution.

Should Santos be removed from office, a special election will be held to fill the balance of the term. Former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) is poised to run along with five other Democrats including former state Sen. Anna Kaplan. Two other Democrats recently withdrew from the race and endorsed ex-Rep. Suozzi. Nine Republicans have also announced, but none have previously served in elected office. Republican leaders are trying to recruit state Sen. Jack Martins (R-Mineola) but so far he has yet to commit.

The 3rd CD holds a D+4 rating according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks NY-3 as the eighth most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. Clearly, this will likely become the top Democratic conversion opportunity in the country.

AK-AL: Lieutenant Governor Announces for House — Alaska Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R) late this week announced that she will enter the at-large congressional campaign hoping to unseat incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel). Already in the race is 2022 Republican general election finalist Nick Begich III.

Lt. Gov. Dahlstrom’s addition to the race could actually help Rep. Peltola win re-election. Under the state’s Ranked Choice Voting system, four finalists will advance to the general election from the all-party jungle primary. In the general election, voters will then rank their choices from one to four. When Peltola first won the seat in the 2022 special election, approximately 60 percent of voters supported a Republican candidate in the all-party primary, and a majority voted Republican in the general election, yet the Ranked Choice system allowed Peltola to win.

A similar situation could occur in 2024. In the 2022 regular general election, Begich and former Gov. Sarah Palin (R) split the Republican vote, thus denying any candidate a majority, which led to Ranked Choice taking effect and Peltola’s victory. In 2024, the split between Begich and Lt. Gov. Dahlstrom, since at least these two and a third person are a lock to qualify for the general election, will probably once again re-elect the state’s Democratic congresswoman. This situation could change if the proposed ballot proposition to repeal the Ranked Choice Voting system qualifies for a vote and the measure passes.

OH-6: Rep. Johnson Being Recruited as University President — The Youngstown State University Trustees have unanimously voted to offer the institution’s presidency position to US Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Marietta), but it is far from certain that the congressman will accept. Johnson released a public statement acknowledging the offer and indicating that he is uncertain as to what will be his decision. Should he accept and resign the House seat, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) would have to call a special election to fill the balance of the term.

Ohio’s 6th District encompasses much of eastern Ohio that hugs both the Pennsylvania and West Virginia borders. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+31. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks OH-6 as the 82nd safest seat in the Republican Conference.

New Hampshire Presidential Primary Remains 1st; NJ First Lady Announces; Arkansas Candidate Filing Closes; VA-5 Candidate Emerges

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 17, 2023

President

New Hampshire: Presidential Primary Finally Scheduled — New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan announced that the state’s “first-in-the-nation” presidential primary will be scheduled for Jan. 23, 2024. There is little surprise associated with this date. To remain as the first primary state and comply with New Hampshire election law — Iowa still votes earlier (Jan. 15), but they feature caucus voting — Jan. 23 became the state’s only choice.

The Nevada primary is Feb. 6, and New Hampshire law, which gives the Secretary of State sole authority to schedule and move the election to prevent another domain from jumping to the front, requires the primary to be at least one week before any other state. Thus, Jan. 23, in holding with their Tuesday voting tradition, was the secretary’s only viable option.

President Joe Biden will not participate in the New Hampshire primary because the state would not agree to the new Democratic National Committee schedule. Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) will be on the Democratic ballot, however, and most of the party’s state leadership is organizing a write-in campaign to support President Biden.

Senate

New Jersey: State’s First Lady Announces for Senate — Tammy Murphy (D), wife of New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D), officially declared her candidacy to oppose indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D) in next year’s Democratic primary. Though most believe Sen. Menendez will not seek re-election, there has been no such confirmation from the Menendez camp.

Ms. Murphy should be regarded as a long shot to win the party nomination. Immediately upon Sen. Menendez’s indictment becoming public, US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) announced his challenge to Menendez, and he has already established a large lead in polling and fundraising. Conversely, Ms. Murphy is a first-time political candidate.

House

Arkansas: 2024 Candidate Filing Closes — The Arkansas ballot is now set. With the candidate filing deadline now past, we’ll look forward to seeing one contested congressional primary election on Super Tuesday, March 5. The presidential primary will be held that day, and with no Senate seat on the Arkansas ballot this year, the four congressional seats become the state’s only other federal elections.

In three districts, the general election candidates are now set. In the eastern 1st District, veteran Rep. Rick Crawford (R-Jonesboro) will run for an eighth term against Iraq War veteran Randy Govens (D). Five-term Rep. French Hill (R-Little Rock) will face retired Army Col. Marcus Jones (D) in the Little Rock-anchored 2nd CD. Fourth District incumbent Bruce Westerman (R-Hot Springs) will be tasked with defending his seat against Democratic attorney Risie Howard.

The only primary contest among the congressional districts comes in the state’s western 3rd District where state Sen. Clint Penzo (R-Tontitown) will oppose seven-term Rep. Steve Womack (R-Rogers). It remains to be seen if this race develops into a major challenge. Republicans will be favored to again retain all four of the Natural State’s congressional districts.

VA-5: Rep. Good Challenged for Renomination — Two-term Virginia Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg), one of the outspoken Freedom Caucus members who was a leader in the move to oust Speaker Kevin McCarthy, will have a renomination challenge next year.

John McGuire III, a state Delegate first elected in 2017 who then won a state Senate seat last week in unopposed fashion, filed a congressional campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission on Wednesday. McGuire, a retired Navy SEAL, ran for Congress once before, losing in the former 7th District’s 2020 Republican nominating convention. State Delegate Nick Freitas, who defeated McGuire that year, would then lose a close battle to Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Ellen) in the general election.

Rep. Good was first elected to the Campbell County Board of Supervisors in 2015. He defeated then-US Rep. Denver Riggleman (R) in a district convention that his key supporters controlled. Assuming Rep. Good is as strong with the local Republican Party as he was during his first election campaign, it would be very difficult for McGuire to upset him within such a favorable venue.

Sheehy Leads Rosendale in Montana GOP Primary Poll; Another Florida Dem Senate Candidate Announces; Louisiana, NJ, Texas House News

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 16, 2023

Senate

Montana: Sheehy Leads Rosendale in GOP Primary Poll — A new Fabrizio Lee statewide Montana survey (Oct. 23-25; 600 likely Montana Republican primary voters; live interview & text) finds that US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive), despite holding Sen. Jon Tester (D) to a 50-47 percent victory margin in 2018, is no lock to win the 2024 Senate Republican nomination.

According to the Fabrizio Lee data, aerospace company CEO and retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, the Republican leadership’s choice, is already topping Rosendale among Republican primary voters. The full ballot test, which also includes GOP candidates Brad Johnson and Jeremy Mygland, projects Sheehy to be holding a 38-35-6-1 percent edge over Rosendale, Johnson and Mygland, respectively. In a head-to-head hypothetical pairing, Sheehy holds a 44-41 percent margin over Rep. Rosendale.

Sheehy, who announced his Senate candidacy in late June (see campaign announcement video at top), has been working the state and is on the air with an early television buy. Rep. Rosendale three weeks ago said he will decide whether to run for the Senate when Montana’s candidate filing deadline closes on March 11.

Florida: Second Major Dem Announces — Former health care company executive Stanley Campbell, who has the ability to at least partially fund his statewide campaign, has formally announced that he will enter the Florida US Senate Democratic primary. Campbell will face former US Rep. Debbie Mucarsel Powell in the Aug. 20 primary election. Nine other Democrats have also declared their candidacies, but it appears that Campbell and Mucarsel Powell are the two most credible contenders. The winner will then face Sunshine State Sen. Rick Scott (R) in what will be an uphill battle for the Democrats.

House

Louisiana: Court Assigns Redistricting Deadline — The three-judge federal Louisiana panel that affirmed the current Bayou State congressional map as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, has given the legislature until Jan. 15 to produce a map that creates a second African American-influenced district. The deadline is actually much shorter unless current Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) calls the legislature back into session. If he does not, incoming Gov. Jeff Landry (R) will have to act immediately since he will not be sworn into office until Jan. 8. Before winning his election outright in October, governor-elect Landry was Louisiana’s attorney general and previously a US congressman. He served only one term in the House when his seat was collapsed because Louisiana lost a seat in the 2010 national reapportionment.

NJ-8: Rep. Menendez Dem Primary Challenger Gains Strength — Freshman Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City) appears headed for a legitimate primary challenge battle. Menendez is the only member of the New Jersey delegation who has stood up for embattled Sen. Bob Menendez, who is the congressman’s father.

Immediately upon the Menendez indictment being announced in late September, Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bholla declared his congressional candidacy in the Democratic primary to oppose the younger Menendez. The latest information proves Bholla is a serious candidate. The New Jersey Globe newspaper reports that the mayor has already raised over $500,000 for his campaign. Therefore, this June 4 primary has legitimate upset potential.

TX-4: Rep. Fallon Changes Mind About Retirement — Earlier this week, Texas Rep. Pat Fallon (R-Frisco) declared that he would not seek re-election to the US House and instead filed papers to run for the state Senate seat that he vacated to run for Congress. Just a couple days later, however, he announced a change of heart and announced that he will run for re-election to the House after all. Rep. Fallon will have little trouble winning a third term despite his equivocation about what office to seek. Therefore, take TX-4 off the open-seat list.

Sen. Tim Scott Out; Primary Rematch Announced in Rep. Omar’s District; Candidate Again Switches Districts; Two Texas Reps Out; Spanberger to Run for Governor

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 15, 2023

President

Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC)

Sen. Tim Scott: Suspends Campaign — South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott announced that he is suspending his 2024 presidential campaign, effectively ending his effort to secure an upset win for the Republican presidential nomination. In late October, Sen. Scott’s campaign principals announced they were turning the strategic focus toward the Iowa Caucuses, but the decision did not result in any appreciable gain in support. This, and barely qualifying for his last debate, led the Palmetto State lawmaker to leave the race. He follows former Vice President Mike Pence and ex-US Rep. Will Hurd in exiting the campaign.

The Republican presidential campaign now actively features former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in the top tier of candidates. Long shots Doug Burgum, the governor of North Dakota, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson also remain in the race.

House

MN-5: Dem Primary Rematch Announced — Former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels, who held controversial Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) to a 50.3 – 48.2 percent renomination victory in the 2022 Democratic primary, has officially announced that he will return for a rematch next year. Two other candidates previously announced, so it remains to be seen if they will continue their campaigns or if they will give Samuels a clear path toward challenging Rep. Omar.

Sarah Gad, an attorney who previously ran for office in Illinois, and businessman Tim Peterson are the announced Democratic candidates. Neither had raised even $55,000 through the Sept. 30 campaign finance reporting deadline. Considering Rep. Omar’s outspoken position regarding the war in Israel, we can expect that particular issue to play a major role in the 2024 campaign. The Minnesota primary is scheduled for Aug. 13, 2024.

NC-6: Candidate Hines Again Switches Districts — Republican Bo Hines, who many observers say proved himself a weak candidate when he lost the politically marginal 13th District to now-Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary) in 2022, has again switched districts. Before losing the 13th District race last November, he originally declared to run in a western North Carolina district. Earlier this year, Hines announced a re-match effort against Rep. Nickel. Now, post-redistricting Round II, he is switching yet again. This time, he will run in the new 6th District against Democratic Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro).

Redistricting appears to have made NC-6 the most vulnerable district in the House Democratic Conference, so Republican chances of converting this seat are strong. Hines, however, must face former Congressman Mark Walker in the Republican primary. After the districts were passed into law, Walker abandoned his long-shot gubernatorial campaign and now becomes a clear favorite to win the Republican nomination in the new 6th, which closely resembles the district he represented for three terms.

TX-4 & 26: Two Texas Reps Won’t Seek Re-Election — As candidate filing deadlines begin to approach in the early primary states, we are seeing 2024 electoral decisions being made. Two more members of the Texas US House delegation announced that they will not run for re-election next year. Veteran Rep. Michael Burgess (R-Pilot Point), in a 26th District that covers three-quarters of Denton County, all of Cooke and two-thirds of Wise County in North Texas, announced that he will not seek an 11th term in the House. Rep. Pat Fallon (R-Frisco), in a more surprising move since he was elected to Congress just three years ago, is opting to run for the state Senate seat that he left to originally run for Congress.

Both Texas seats are safely Republican. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-4 as R+31, while TX-26 is rated R+26. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the 4th and 26th as the 159th and 127th most vulnerable seats, respectively, in the Republican Conference.

VA-7: Rep. Spanberger to Run for Governor — Three-term US Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) announced that she will run for governor of Virginia in 2025. The move means she will not seek re-election to the House in 2024.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), under Virginia’s unique one-term limit law for its state chief executives, is ineligible to seek re-election. Therefore, the position will again be open for the 2025 election. Rep. Spanberger reports more than $1.4 million cash-on-hand in her congressional committee, all of which is transferable to a Virginia state campaign.

Without Spanberger seeking re-election, the 7th District becomes highly competitive in the general election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+2. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates 51.1D – 47.2R partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks VA-7 as the 17th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

Another Close Poll in Ohio; Three Retirements — Ohio’s Wenstrup, NY’s Higgins, Kilmer of Washington

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 14, 2023

Senate

Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D)

Ohio: Another Close Poll — The Data for Progress research organization released their new Ohio Senate poll, which differs wildly from the Ohio Northern University (ONU) survey results published in mid-October. The DfP poll (Oct. 31-Nov. 2; 597 likely Ohio voters; online) finds virtual ties for Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) with all three major Republican primary contenders. Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose does the best among the Republicans, tying Sen. Brown at 46 percent apiece.

Opposite state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls), the senator holds just a one-point, 47-46 percent, edge. His margin opposite businessman Bernie Moreno is only three points, 47-44 percent.

These results contrast with the ONU data that yielded Sen. Brown margins between 13 and 22 points against the same GOP opponents. The Data for Progress results, however, are more consistent with other polls conducted for this race. The Ohio campaign will be one of the nation’s top 2024 US Senate race and is considered a virtual must-win campaign for the GOP if the party is going to wrest the chamber majority away from the Democrats.

House

OH-2: Rep. Wenstrup to Retire — Ohio’s six-term US Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-Hillsboro) announced via video message on Friday that he will not be seeking re-election in 2024. Wenstrup first came to Congress in 2012 when he scored an upset victory over then-Rep. Jean Schmidt in that year’s Republican primary. The congressman has not been seriously challenged since.

Ohio’s 2nd District contains all or parts of 16 southern counties that stretch from the eastern Cincinnati suburbs all the way to West Virginia. Republicans will have little trouble holding the district as an open seat and Wenstrup’s successor will be determined in the March 19 GOP primary. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+49. Former President Donald Trump carried the seat in 2020 with a whopping 72-27 percent majority. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks OH-2 as the 13th safest Republican seat in the GOP Conference.

NY-26: Rep. Brian Higgins (D) to Resign — New York US Rep. Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo) clarified over the weekend that he will resign from the House in February in order to become president of the Shea’s Performing Arts Center in his home city of Buffalo. Rep. Higgins was first elected in 2004 from a 26th District that includes two-thirds of Erie County and almost three-quarters of Niagara County.

The Democrats should have little trouble holding this district, though a new open seat in western New York could influence what is likely a second round of redistricting to come early next year. Therefore, the confines of the Buffalo-anchored district could change.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NY-26 as D+18. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 61.4D – 36.1R partisan lean. President Joe Biden recorded a 61-37 percent win here in the 2020 election. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks this district as the 78th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

WA-6: Rep. Kilmer Won’t Seek Re-Election — Another six-term US House member also announced his retirement on Friday. Washington Congressman Derek Kilmer (D-Gig Harbor) will leave the House after what will be 12 years in office at the end of the current Congress. Rep. Kilmer indicated in his retirement announcement that it is time for a new challenge.

Washington’s 6th District encompasses the Olympic Peninsula, the large area west of Seattle and the Puget Sound that stretches to the Pacific Ocean. The 6th is reliably Democratic, and the August partisan primary will likely determine Kilmer’s successor. Before Rep. Kilmer won the seat in 2012, then-Rep. Norm Dicks (D) held the 6th District for 36 years.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates WA-6 as D+10, but Dave’s Redistricting App suggests a stronger 55.8D – 42.4R partisan lean advantage. President Biden won the 6th District constituency with a 57-40 percent victory margin. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks WA-6 as the 57th most vulnerable Democratic seat.

14th Amendment Ruling: Door Open

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 13, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump with former Vice President Mike Pence. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

January 6: Insurrection? — There has been an ongoing argument about whether former President Donald Trump’s actions surrounding the January 6 situation at the US Capitol constitutes “insurrection” as cited in the US Constitution’s 14th Amendment, and last week, a state Supreme Court issued a ruling.

At first glance, it appears that Trump won the Minnesota decision, but reading the chief justice’s decision suggests the issue is not yet firmly decided. Similar lawsuits are also alive in Colorado and Michigan.

The Minnesota State Supreme Court officially dismissed the lawsuit that was attempting to ban Trump from the state’s ballot. The high court ruled that his name be placed on the Republican primary ballot. Obviously, this part of the decision favors the former president.

The high court left open the possibility to hear, however, another lawsuit for the general election should Trump win the Republican presidential nomination. Some of the language associated with this narrative suggests that the ultimate decision might be different.

In dismissing the challenge, Minnesota Chief Justice Natalie Hudson wrote that the Republican primary is, “an internal party election to serve internal party purposes…[a]nd there is no statute that prohibits a major political party from placing on the presidential nomination primary ballot, or sending delegates to the national convention supporting, a candidate who is ineligible to hold office.”

The plaintiffs indicated they are “disappointed” with the ruling but underscored that the state Supreme Court has left the door open for a perhaps different ruling later in the cycle after Trump becomes the party nominee.
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Trump on Ballot in Minnesota; Incumbent Challenged in AR-3; Virginia Final Numbers; Houston Mayoral Runoff Set

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 10, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Minnesota: State Supreme Court OKs Trump for Primary Ballot — Ruling on a 14th Amendment lawsuit attempting to bar former President Donald Trump from the ballot saying he incited an “insurrection” even though he or no January 6-convicted defendant was even charged with insurrection against the Constitution; therefor, the Minnesota State Supreme Court ruled Wednesday that he will be placed on the Republican primary ballot. The high court left open the possibility to hear, however, another lawsuit for the general election should Trump win the Republican presidential nomination.

Similar lawsuits are also alive in Colorado and Michigan.

In dismissing the challenge, Minnesota Chief Justice Natalie Hudson wrote that the Republican primary is, “an internal party election to serve internal party purposes … [and] there is no statute that prohibits a major political party from placing on the presidential nomination primary ballot, or sending delegates to the national convention supporting, a candidate who is ineligible to hold office.”

House

AR-3: Rep. Womack to Face GOP Primary Challenge — Yesterday, Arkansas state Sen. Clint Penzo (R-Springdale) announced that he will challenge seven-term Congressman Steve Womack (R-Rogers). During his tenure in the House, Womack served briefly as chairman of the House Budget Committee. Immediately, in a show of support, Sen. Tom Cotton (R), Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R), and US Rep. Rick Crawford (R-Jonesboro) announced their endorsements of the incumbent. It remains to be seen if this challenge becomes a serious effort. The Arkansas primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

States

Virginia: Numbers Becoming Final — The final votes are being reported in the Virginia legislative elections, and the party division numbers look to be 21-19 in the Democrats’ favor for the incoming state Senate, and a 51-49 Democratic majority in the House of Delegates. The final numbers are slightly better for Republicans, but Democrats now control both houses in the General Assembly instead of just one.

Cities

Houston: Mayoral Runoff Set, Outgoing Mayor Endorses — Gov. Greg Abbott (R) confirmed that the Houston mayoral runoff election will be held on Dec. 9. The runoff winner will earn a four-year term as America’s fourth largest city’s chief executive. Immediately after the election, outgoing Mayor Sylvester Turner (D), ineligible to seek a third term, endorsed US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston). She placed second to state Sen. John Whitmire (D-Houston) in Tuesday’s initial election. Neither candidate received majority support to secure the election, hence the need for a head-to-head second vote.