Tag Archives: Alabama

The Ups & Downs of Early Voting; New Alabama CD Normalizing; A One-Point Race in Montana; Long Island GOP Candidates Struggling

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 25, 2024

Early Voting

National Vote: Some 25 Million Early Votes — Almost 25 million people have already cast their ballots in the 2024 general election and while both Democrats and Republicans are slightly ahead of their 2020 percentage turnout benchmark, we see big increases in the rural vote, while the most consistent voters dominate the early ballot casts.

According to the TargetEarly/TargetSmart data organization, early voters from the rural areas are up a full eight points over their 2020 performance and almost four percentage points over the 2022 turnout statistics. Conversely, urban voters are down 10 points from 2020 and six from the 2022 benchmark. Those listed as frequent and “super voters,” the latter meaning individuals who participate in every election, dominate the 2024 early voting statistics.

The first-time voter category is down about nine percentage points as compared to 2020, while the infrequent voter is down five points. Those categorized as “frequent voters” are down three points from 2020 and five points when compared with the 2022 statistics. The “super voter” category dominates early voting. This group is up 17 points over the 2020 performance and five in comparison to 2022.

House

AL-2: Figures Expands Lead — The newly created 2nd Congressional District is now beginning to perform as drawn. The original intent was to draw the seat to elect an African American representative and after a flirtation with Republican Caroleen Dobson, the electorate appears to be returning to normal trends. The legislature was under court order to draw a second majority minority seat, and this district is the result.

A Schoen Cooperman Research survey conducted for the Protect Progress liberal Super PAC (Oct. 14-17; 400 likely AL-2 voters) finds former Obama Administration official Shomari Figurers (D) leading Dobson by a 49-38 percent count, which should put the race to bed for the Democrats.

MT-1: New Poll Shows One Point Race — While several polls since mid-September have shown Montana Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) pulling away from Democrat Monica Tranel, a new Impact Research survey for the Tranel campaign (Oct. 14-17; 500 likely MT-1 voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees the race coming back into the one point range with the incumbent still maintaining the slightest of leads.

While Rep. Zinke still must be considered the favorite to win at least a close victory, this contest is again closer than it should be in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+10, and where former President Donald Trump recorded a 52-45 percent showing in 2020.

New York: Polls Find Dems Running Well Against GOP Incumbents — Two of three recently released surveys suggest incumbent Empire State Republicans are struggling to stay in office, and the third is down significantly; Siena College tested two Long Island Districts and found scandal-tainted freshman Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park) trailing badly in the region’s 4th Congressional District. According to the Siena survey (for Newsday; Oct. 13-17; 532 likely NY-4 voters), the congressman trails former Hempstead Town Supervisor and 2022 congressional nominee Laura Guillen (D) by a substantial 53-41 percent deficit figure.

In eastern Long Island, freshman Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County) has only a three-point lead over former CNN anchor John Avlon (D). The Siena poll, also conducted for Newsday (Oct. 13-17; 526 likely NY-1 voters), posts the congressman to a 47-44 percent edge.

Survey USA went into the field in the Upstate 19th Congressional District where Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-Red Hook) also trails his Democratic opponent. The S-USA poll (conducted for WNYT media in Albany; Oct. 11-16; 561 NY-19 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) gives 2022 congressional nominee and attorney Josh Riley (D) a 46-42 percent edge over Congressman Molinaro.

Should the two GOP incumbents lose the election two weeks from now, it will be a major blow toward Republican prospects of sustaining their small US House majority.

House Open Seats: The Change Factor

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, August 29, 2024

House

Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Once again, we see a large number of open seats in the US House of Representatives, something that has been common throughout the previous decade and the beginning of this one, yet in 2024 very few open seats are poised to flip to the opposite party.

In a political body where incumbent retention is extraordinarily high – in 2022 we saw 98.1 percent of House incumbents who sought re-election win – and will almost assuredly be again so in 2024, most often seats that convert to the opposite party do so in open status.

That’s not the case in 2024. Currently, we find 55 open seats, 29 coming from the Democratic column, 25 from the Republicans, with one district, AL-2, which was created as a new seat in a secondary redistricting redraw. Yet from this number, and not counting the eight seats that were open during the cycle and filled in special elections, one could argue that only 10 will either flip or see a serious competition level.

At the end of the cycle, it would not be surprising to see only those affected by a second round of redistricting flip, meaning the three seats in North Carolina changing from Democrat to Republican, and one each moving from Republican to Democrat in Alabama and Louisiana.

Therefore, of the current 55 open House seats, it appears very likely that 50 will remain with the incumbent party or flip because of redistricting. Therefore, in only five instances do we see an open seat where the controlling party might change via election.

Perhaps the most hotly contested open seat lies in southern California where Rep. Katie Porter’s (D-Irvine) Orange County-anchored 47th District should be rated as a toss-up. Former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R), who finished first in the jungle primary, and state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine), who finished second, are the general election finalists.

If the jungle primary partisan breakdown is any indication as to how this race might end, and it may well be, then this is one that could take weeks to decide under the elongated ballot counting and signature verification process that California employs.

In the qualification election, Baugh finished first with 32.1 percent while Sen. Min captured 25.9 percent. The aggregate Republican percentage total from three candidates was 49.6 percent. The total Democratic percentage dispersed through four candidates was 47.1 percent, with the remaining 3.3 percent divided among a trio of No Party Preference candidates. CA-47 leans Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+6, and the Daily Kos Elections statisticians, now with The Down Ballot data site, ranks the 47th as the 32nd most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference.

The district that Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) vacated, which covers Colorado’s western slope mountain region, should be a Republican CD. The FiveThirtyEight data team sees a GOP advantage of R+15, and The Down Ballot organization ranks the district as the 51st most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. Still, Democrat Adam Frisch has raised more money than all House candidates in the nation with the exception of the former House Speaker and Democratic Leader.

Though he already spent three-quarters of his money, most of which was raised when he was running against Rep. Boebert, Frisch still had almost $4 million more at his disposal in late June than new Republican nominee Jeffrey Hurd. Resources and residual name ID and losing the closest election of 2022 gives Frisch a fighting chance in what should be a safe Republican seat.

On paper, central/east Michigan’s 7th and 8th Districts appear as pure toss-ups. In actuality, with President Joe Biden taking the reconfigured 7th with a 49.4 – 48.9 percent tight victory and a slightly larger 50.3 – 48.2 percent finish in the adjacent 8th CD, as well as continuing to re-elect Democratic House members, 2024 US Senate candidate Elissa Slotkin and retiring Rep. Dan Kildee, the party has a more discernible edge than the dead even statistical calculations suggest.

This gives former state Rep. Curtis Hertel (D) and state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) the probable advantage they will need to beat their respective Republican opponents, ex-state senator and 2022 congressional nominee Tom Barrett and three-time congressional nominee Paul Junge, respectively.

Virginia’s 7th CD, open because Democratic incumbent Rep. Abigail Spanberger is preparing a 2025 run for governor, is another seat that looks more vulnerable on paper than it does in terms of actual vote counting. The FiveThirtyEight data organization ranks the 7th, that stretches from the outer Richmond suburbs to the Washington, DC exburbs, as D+2, and it ranks as the 17th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

President Biden, however, recorded a more comfortable 52.6 – 45.8 percent majority and Rep. Spanberger scored a 51-49 percent re-election victory even though the congresswoman faced a constituency where three-quarters of the district’s residents were not in her previous district.

In the open seat election, retired Army officer Eugene Vindman (D) has a huge resource advantage over Iraq War veteran Derrick Anderson (R). Vindman had a 7:1 fundraising advantage over Anderson according to the most recent campaign disclosure filings.

At the end of the campaign cycle, it would not be surprising to see no open seat flip to the opposite party without the aid of a new redistricting map. If so, we will see yet another unique facet of the wild 2024 election cycle.

Michigan Senate Race Movement; Pennsylvania’s Casey Up Solidly; Surprising New Alabama Poll;
Cori Bush Trailing in Re-Election Bid

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Senate

Michigan: Pensler Out; Two Polls — Underdog Michigan US Senate candidate Sandy Pensler (R) announced that he is abandoning his own campaign and will instead endorse former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) for the GOP nomination to oppose US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing). The congresswoman is the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

A pair of polls were also released of the general election yielding considerably different results. While both find Rep. Slotkin leading, EPIC-MRA, the most prolific Michigan pollster (for the Detroit Free Press; July 13-17; 600 registered Michigan voters), sees the congresswoman posting a three point lead over Rogers, 43-40 percent.

Public Policy Polling, however, sees a more substantial Slotkin advantage. Their survey (July 17-18; 650 registered Michigan voters; multiple sampling techniques) posts a 46-38 percent result. Of the many polls taken of this race, the EPIC-MRA result is more consistent with the preponderance of other surveys.

Sen. Bob Casey Jr. / Photo: FoxNews.com

Pennsylvania: A Polling Trifecta — Three pollsters surveyed the Keystone State electorate, and all show Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) leading businessman David McCormick (R) beyond the polling margin of error. The most recent, from SoCal Research for the OnPoint political blog (July 20-21; 500 likely Pennsylvania voters; online), finds Sen. Casey posting a 10-point lead over McCormick, 50-40 percent, even while the same sample detects former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris, 50-46 percent.

Public Policy Polling, surveying for the liberal Clean and Prosperous American PAC (July 17-18; 624 registered Pennsylvania voters; multiple sampling techniques), found an almost identical result with Sen. Casey ahead 11 points, 50-39 percent.

Finally, British pollster Redfield & Wilton Strategies (for The Telegraph publication; July 16-18; 688 likely Pennsylvania voters; online, part of a seven-state polling track of 5,005 respondents) added the three minor party candidates to their ballot test and projects that Sen. Casey would lead McCormick 44-37 percent with the other candidates attracting a cumulative three percentage points.

House

AL-2: A Surprising New Poll — Alabama’s new 2nd Congressional District was drawn to elect an African American Democrat, but a recent Strategy Management poll for the Alabama Families PAC (7/22-24; 1,000 AL-2 registered voters; live interview & text) found Republican Caroleen Dobson polling close to race favorite Shomari Figures (D). The ballot test gives Figures just a 37-34 percent edge.

Additionally, Figures’ fundraising is far below what one would expect. According to the June 30th Federal Election Commission second quarter disclosure report, the Democratic nominee had raised only $894,000 as compared to Dobson’s $2.2 million, though $1.3 million of that total comes in the form of a candidate loan.

Figures is still favored in a seat that Kamala Harris should easily carry over Donald Trump, but Dobson’s effort may be worthy of more attention as the campaign season moves into prime time.

MO-1: Rep. Bush Trailing in Pre-Primary Survey — Apparently, the strong outside group influence aimed at defeating Missouri US Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis), approximately a 9:2 ratio in millions of dollars, is being well spent. A new Mellman Group poll July 21-24; 400 likely MO-1 Democratic primary voters) sees former St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell leading Rep. Bush, 48-42 percent, as the candidates steam toward next week’s Aug. 6 primary election. The Bell lead has increased five points since a previous poll was published in June.

The chief funder of the anti-Bush efforts is the United Democracy Project, which is the political arm of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). This group also led to charge to defeat another anti-Israel incumbent on June 25, Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY).

Incumbents Winning Big

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 23, 2024

Elections

At this point in the 2024 election cycle we have seen a number of budding primary challenges opposite US House members, and through this past Tuesday the incumbents are batting 1.000. It is likely, however, that the most competitive challenges are yet to come.

A total of 17 states have held their down-ballot primary elections. Within this number were 62 partisan challenges to US representatives. The California all-party jungle primary system does not produce traditional intra-party challenges. Therefore, the Golden State races are not included in the partisan statistics quoted in this column.

In only one race, that one in Alabama’s newly constructed 1st District, did an incumbent, Rep. Jerry Carl (R-Mobile), lose. But, in a paired redistricting situation, a sitting member losing was the inevitable conclusion.

We have seen no serious nomination challenges to sitting in-cycle senators. In the House, of the 62 members who have faced an intra-party opponent, 18 have proven to be substantial challenges. This means that the top opponent received at least 30 percent of the vote.

In only two, however, was an incumbent victory even in doubt. On March 19, southern Illinois Congressman Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro) defeated former state senator and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Darren Bailey by a slight 51-49 percent count.

On May 7 in the Hoosier State of Indiana, Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Noblesville), who originally indicated she would not seek re-election but changed her mind before the candidate filing deadline, only scored 39 percent of the primary vote. The total, however, was enough to turn back eight GOP challengers including state Rep. Chuck Goodrich (R-Noblesville) who captured 33 percent support.

Therefore, at this point in the House cycle with now a bare majority of 218 district electorates having nominated their general election contenders, it appears the stage might be set to see another incumbent-favorable general election.

The primary vote to-date could be the precursor to seeing a similar result to what we saw in 2022, when incumbents fared extremely well even though polling suggested the electorate desired major change. Two years ago, 55 of 56 senators and governors who ran for re-election won, and the incumbent retention percentage in the House was 98.1.

Should the 2024 election result in a similar conclusion, we would again see very small margins in both the House and Senate. Yet, the primary season is only half over, and a number of key members remain embroiled in primary campaigns.

While we’ve only seen two primaries in the first half resulting in close finishes, several upcoming contests could end in close counts or even incumbent upsets. In fact, 13 members in 11 states face challengers who are positioning themselves for serious runs.

Arizona freshman Rep. Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley) sees former Yavapai County Supervisor Jack Smith coming forward. Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt), while changing to the open 4th District, must overcome Logan County Commissioner Jerry Sonnenberg and two state representatives to secure nomination in the new district.

In Florida, both Reps. Dan Webster (R-Clermont) and Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota) face a former state representative and ex-school superintendent, respectively.

In what are proving to be the top challenges to Democratic members, Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), Cori Bush (D-MO), and Ilhan Omar (D-MN), all members of far left “Squad,” each face serious opponents in the persons of Westchester County Executive George Latimer, St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell, and former Minneapolis City councilman and 2022 congressional candidate Don Samuels.

Oklahoma Rep. Tom Cole (R-Moore/Norman) is repelling a multi-million dollar challenge from Texas transplant Paul Bondar. Two South Carolina members, Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and William Timmons (R-Greenville), are attempting to defeat strong challenges from former Haley Administration official Catherine Templeton, and state Rep. Adam Morgan (R-Greenville).

Like Rep. Mace, who is under attack for voting to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Virginia Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) also has his hands full attempting to defend himself from state Sen. John McGuire’s (R) aggressive challenge.

Tennessee Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Columbia) and Utah’s Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City), the latter of whom won her seat in a late 2023 special election, also are in serious battles for renomination.

While we have seen an unblemished nomination record for incumbent House members in the first half of primaries, the second half may threaten their so far perfect record.

Trump Leads Among Texas Hispanics; Trone Rebounds in Maryland; Figures Wins Runoff in Alabama; Indiana Sen. Braun Criticized for Supporting BLM

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 19, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Texas: Trump Leads Among Texas Hispanics — The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation conducted a recent poll of the Lone Star State electorate (April 5-10; 1,600 likely Texas voters) and finds former President Donald Trump posting a 12-point lead over President Joe Biden in a five-way race that includes the two major party candidates, Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party nominee Jill Stein, and potential Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver. The preference split was 46-34-9-2-1 percent in the above candidate order. Texas, the second-largest state in population, has 40 electoral votes to award to its presidential winner.

The most interesting part of the poll, however, was the vote division among Hispanics. Within this segment, Trump actually leads President Biden 41-37 percent, which is another indication that Trump has upward mobility among Hispanics while Biden exhibits clear weakness within the community. Trump also does well with Texas women, leading the president 44-34 percent, a trend not seen in many other places. His spread among Lone Star men is 50-34 percent.

Senate

Maryland: Trone Rebounds from Close Poll — We earlier reported on a poll from Maryland Democratic Senate candidate Angela Alsobrooks (Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group; April 8-10; 600 likely Maryland Democratic primary voters; live interview) that found her trailing US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) by just three percentage points, 43-40 percent.

Already, we see a counter poll, this one coming from the Baltimore Sun newspaper. According to their new survey (OpinionWorks; April 7-10; 1,292 likely Maryland general election voters; 600 Democratic primary voters), Rep. Trone holds a commanding advantage over Alsobrooks, topping her 48-29 percent. With such an obvious difference between the two professional polls conducted in the same time frame with identical sample sizes, it is clear we will need further data to better understand where this race resides. Expect heavy campaigning to occur as we move closer to the May 14 Maryland primary.

House

AL-2: Shomari Figures Wins Dem Runoff — As expected, Obama Justice Department official Shomari Figures, who placed first in the original Democratic primary back on March 5, easily defeated state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels by a 61-39 percent count. Figures, the son of parents who both served in the Alabama Senate, now advances to the general election where he will be favored to win a newly created district that President Biden would have carried 56-43 percent.

The Republican runoff ended with a surprise, as attorney Caroleen Dobson upset former state Sen. Dick Brewbaker with a 58-42 percent victory. In the March 5 primary, Brewbaker led a field of eight candidates. Dobson trailed Brewbaker by more than 12 percentage points and only qualified for the second runoff position by 632 votes over the third-place finisher. Like Figures, Dobson will now advance into the Nov. 5 general election.

Governor

Indiana: Braun Attacked for Supporting BLM — While Sen. Mike Braun (R) has shown Republican primary polling strength against Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, former state Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers, and venture capitalist Eric Doden in their battle for the open governor’s position, he is now under attack for statement indicating his support for the Black Lives Matter organization.

The American Advancement organization is running ads featuring Braun saying, “I support that movement because it’s addressing an inequity that has not been solved.” The ad further has him saying he would, “if asked,” join a BLM protest as the narrator continually calls him a “RINO” (Republican In Name Only). It remains to be seen if the Super Pac buys enough airtime to make their negative attack on Sen. Braun stick.

Figures Records Major Lead in Alabama Runoff; New Challenger in AZ-2; Rep. Kuster to Retire; Clear Leader Emerges in North Dakota

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 28, 2024

House

Former Obama Justice Department official Shomari Figures.

AL-2: Figures Records Major Lead in New Runoff Poll — Impact Research conducted a research study for the upcoming April 2 Democratic runoff election in Alabama’s new 2nd Congressional District anchored in the Montgomery and Mobile areas. The survey (March 14-18; 500 likely AL-2 Democratic runoff voters; interactive voice response system and text) sees former Obama Justice Department official Shomari Figures, who finished first in the March 5 primary with 43.5 percent of the vote, leading state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels (D-Montgomery) by a whopping 59-24 percent margin.

The eventual Democratic nominee will be a heavy favorite in the general election. President Joe Biden carried this newly configured district with a 56-43 percent vote spread in 2020. The state’s congressional map was redrawn to comply with the US Supreme Court ruling in the Alabama racial gerrymandering case.

AZ-2: McCarthy Opponent Draws Primary Challenge — Freshman Arizona Rep. Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley), who is one of the eight Republicans who voted to oust then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy, has drawn a primary opponent. Yavapai County Supervisor Jack Smith (R) announced yesterday that he would follow through with a challenge to Crane after he filed a campaign committee weeks ago with the Federal Election Commission.

The 2nd Congressional District of Arizona covers the state’s northeastern sector and then stretches into Maricopa County, in and around the Phoenix metro area. The seat is safely Republican, so the true battle will be in the GOP primary scheduled for July 30.

NH-2: Rep. Kuster to Retire — Six-term New Hampshire US Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) announced yesterday that she will not seek re-election next year. Her departure paves the way for a competitive primary and general election season. Kuster averaged 53.3 percent of the vote in her six victorious elections, dropping below 50 percent in 2016 (49.8 percent) while scoring her strongest vote of 55.8 percent in 2022. She was first elected in 2012, defeating then-Rep. Charlie Bass (R) in that year’s general election.

NH-2 becomes the 49th open seat heading into the next election. Kuster becomes the 25th House Democrat not to seek another term. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the western New Hampshire seat as D+2, and the Daily Kos Elections site ranks NH-2 as the 21st-most vulnerable district in the Democratic Conference. President Biden, however, recorded a 54-45 percent victory over former President Donald Trump in 2020, thus exceeding the typical Democratic performance in this swing seat.

ND-AL: Clear Leader Emerges — As candidate filing in North Dakota closed, the race for the open at-large congressional district is becoming clearer. Former state Sen. Tom Campbell (R), viewed as a strong contender, decided not to file for the seat just after outgoing Gov. Doug Burgum (R) announced his Republican primary endorsement of state Public Utilities Commissioner Julie Fedorchak.

It appears that Fedorchak is becoming the favorite for the nomination. With the FiveThirtyEight data organization rating North Dakota as R+37 and former President Trump carrying the seat with a 65-32 percent margin, winning the Republican primary is typically tantamount to claiming the seat in the November election.

Three-term Congressman Kelly Armstrong (R-Bismarck) is running for governor. In addition to Fedorchak, former state Rep. Rick Becker and farmer and retired Air Force veteran Alex Balazs comprise the open-seat GOP primary field. For the Democrats, educator and 2022 Public Utilities Commission nominee Trygve Hammer is unopposed for the party nomination.

Super Tuesday Voting

Nikki Haley suspends her campaign. (CBS video)

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 6, 2024

President

Biden, Trump: Almost Clean Sweeps — President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump both took major steps forward to clinching renomination with almost clean sweeps in the Super Tuesday voting entities. Both men were respectively one entity short of winning every primary and caucus.

Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley topped former President Donald Trump in the Vermont Republican primary, and President Biden lost the American Samoa Caucus to unknown candidate Jason Palmer. Irrespective of those bumps along the nomination road, both President Biden and former President Trump are on track to become their party’s presumptive nominee before March 20.

Haley, calling for Trump to mend fences with those who supported her throughout the primary process, announced this morning that she was suspending her campaign for the presidency. “The time has now come to suspend my campaign,” she said. “Our congress is dysfunctional and only getting worse. … Our world is on fire because of
America’s retreat. If we retreat further, there will be more war, not less. … We must bind together as Americans. Our country is too precious to let our differences divide us. It is now up to Donald Trump to earn the votes of those in our party and beyond it who did not support him. And I hope he does that.”

Senate

California: Schiff, Garvey Advance — Because the California counting system requires such a long period due to signature verification for the millions of mail-in ballots cast throughout the country’s most populous state, it may be several weeks before we have final totals. That means some of the many competitive races on the ballot may be undecided for quite a long period though most contests already have a projected winner.

The state’s premier campaign is the open Senate race where appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) is not seeking a full term. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) chose her as the interim senator when incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) passed away in September.

With more than half the votes recorded, both Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) and retired baseball star Steve Garvey (R) have been projected to capture ballot positions in the general election. At this point, Rep. Schiff has 33 percent of the vote to Garvey’s 32 percent. They defeated Reps. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) who attracted 14 and seven percent of the vote, respectively. The final tallies could change, but it appears clear that Schiff and Garvey will continue onto the general election while all other contenders are now officially eliminated.

Texas: Allred Wins Outright — In a result that would have to register as a mild surprise, US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) secured majority support in the crowded US Senate Democratic primary to clinch the party nomination outright. He will now challenge Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in November.

House

Alabama: Moore Wins; CD-2 in Runoffs — The 1st District paired incumbents battle ended differently than polling suggested as Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) recorded a close victory over fellow Congressman Jerry Carl (R-Mobile). The two were tossed into the same district as a result of the court-ordered redistricting map designed to create a new majority minority seat. Rep. Moore, at this writing, looks to have secured a 52-48 percent victory margin.

Though Carl represents 59 percent of the new district and Moore the remainder, Moore performed much better in the portion of the new district that he currently represents. Therefore, Moore’s strong margins in familiar territory were enough to overcome Carl’s Mobile-area base. Rep. Moore is now a lock to win the general election.

The new open 2nd District will, as expected, feature runoff elections for both parties. The Democrats will host a secondary runoff race between former Obama Justice Department official Shomari Figures and state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels (D-Montgomery).

For the Republicans, ex-state legislator Dick Brewbaker has qualified for the runoff but a tight battle for the second position exists between conservative attorney Caroleene Dobson and state Sen. Greg Albritton (R-Baldwin County), and it will require political overtime to determine which of the latter two advances.

The runoff elections are scheduled for April 2. The eventual Democratic nominee will be a heavy favorite to clinch the seat in November.

Governor

North Carolina: Nominees Chosen Today — As expected, the open governor’s primary yielded a general election that will feature Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson for the Republicans and Attorney General Josh Stein as the Democratic nominee. Both easily won their respective primary elections last night. A tight general election is forecast.

Super Tuesday Preview – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 4, 2024

The Super Tuesday primaries are tomorrow and while the presidential nominations appear set, five states will also hold their full ballot 2024 nomination elections. Today, we look at the Alabama, Arkansas, and California primaries. Tomorrow, North Carolina and Texas.

California

Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) / Former baseball great Steve Garvey (R)

The Golden State hosts the most action in the Super Tuesday state primaries. A hot open US Senate race is featured, and competition exists in as many as 20 of the state’s 52 congressional races, seven of which are open seat contests.

The final Senate poll, from the University of California at Berkeley’s Institute of Government Studies for the Los Angeles Times (Feb. 22-27; 6,536 registered California voters; 3,304 of whom have already mailed their ballots; online) contains a surprise.

For the first time since this open Senate race began, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) has lost his first place spot. Republican former baseball star Steve Garvey has captured the lead largely because Schiff has been spending heavily to label him as too conservative in an attempt to unify Republicans and block Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) from qualifying for the general election.

The ballot test finds Garvey posting 27 percent support with Rep. Schiff close behind with 25 percent. Porter would be eliminated if this poll’s findings are correct. She attracts 19 percent support, while Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) drops to eight percent preference. Garvey and Schiff would then advance into the general election. An inter-party general election heavily favors Democrats.

In the top two all-party jungle primary House races, several could be headed for general elections featuring members of the same political party.

The districts potentially producing double-Democratic finalists are the 12th (open; Rep. Lee running for Senate),16th (open; Rep. Anna Eshoo-D retiring), 25th (Rep. Raul Ruiz-D being challenged), 26th (Rep. Julia Brownley vs. Councilman Chris Anstead), 29th (open; Rep. Tony Cardenas-D retiring), 30th (open; Rep. Schiff running for Senate), 31st (open; Rep. Grace Napolitano-D retiring), and 34th (Rep. Jimmy Gomez-D again being challenged).

The vacant 20th District (Rep. Kevin McCarthy-R resigned) could potentially produce a double-Republican general election.

Competitive inter-party races already look set in the 3rd (Rep. Kevin Kiley-R vs. Jessica Morse-D), 9th (Rep. Josh Harder-D vs. Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln-R), 13th (Rep. John Duarte-R vs. former Assemblyman Adam Gray-D), 21st (Rep. Jim Costa-D vs. Michael Maher-R), 22nd (Rep. David Valadao-R vs. ex-Assemblyman Rudy Salas-D), 27th (Rep. Mike Garcia-R vs. George Whitesides-D), and 41st (Rep. Ken Calvert-R vs. Will Rollins-D).

In several other competitive seats, the general election slate is uncertain heading into tomorrow’s primary, though all mentioned incumbents will claim the first general election ballot slot. Those are: Districts 40 (Rep. Young Kim-R), 45 (Rep. Michelle Steel-R), 47 (open; Rep. Katie Porter-D running for Senate), and 49 (Rep. Mike Levin-D).

Though the California jungle primary can’t elect any candidate outright, tomorrow’s voting will provide us with a significant number of political answers.

Alabama

In adherence to the US Supreme Court’s ruling on the Alabama racial gerrymandering case, the state’s congressional map has been redrawn. Tomorrow’s focus will be on two major House races, the Republican pairing between Reps. Jerry Carl (R-Mobile) and Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) in a newly crafted 1st District that stretches from Mississippi to Georgia along Alabama’s Florida border, and an open 2nd CD from Montgomery to Mobile that is designed to elect an African American candidate.

Even though Alabama is a runoff state, the Carl/Moore contest will be decided tomorrow since they are the only two candidates on the ballot. Therefore, the winner will have majority support and become the prohibitive favorite for the general election. Carl currently represents 59 percent of the new district, and Moore, 41 percent. Both have been attacking the other as weak on the southern border.

The most recent poll, from Auburn University at Montgomery with the Survey Research Center at the University of Georgia (Feb. 27; 1,909 likely AL-1 voters; text to web) found a ballot test result that favors Rep. Carl, 43-35 percent, but suggests the final outcome will yield a close result.

In the 2nd CD, we can expect the primary vote to produce runoff elections for both parties. A total of 11 Democrats and seven Republicans are competing for their respective nominations. The field includes two state senators, four state representatives, including the House Minority Leader and Minority Whip, and one local official. The eventual Democratic nominee becomes a clear favorite in the general election.

Arkansas

The presidential contest is the only statewide race on the Arkansas ballot and all four of the state’s US House members are seeking another term. Tomorrow’s only semi-competitive battle occurs in the northwest Arkansas 3rd Congressional District where seven-term US Rep. Steve Womack (R-Rogers) faces state Sen. Clint Penzo (R-Springdale).

The challenger had raised less than $94,000 and had $65,000 cash-on-hand through the Feb. 14 pre-primary filing. This suggests little activity on his part, and we can expect a big Womack victory tomorrow night. No change is expected in the Arkansas delegation for the next Congress.

Redistricting Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 8, 2024

Putting together the redistricting puzzle

Several states have been conducting a second round of redistricting, and four have completed the process. Therefore, the group has new maps in place for the 2024 election cycle. Below is a redistricting recap:

Completed States

Alabama: The US Supreme Court rather surprisingly sided with the Democratic plaintiffs to force a redraw of the Alabama congressional map under the reasoning that a second majority minority seat could be drawn. The new map results in a pairing of Republican Congressmen Jerry Carl (R-Mobile) and Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) in a southern Alabama district that stretches from Mississippi to Georgia along the Gulf Coast and Florida border.

The Republican primary election, scheduled for March 5, will decide who represents this district likely for the remainder of the decade. Rep. Carl represents 59 percent of the new district while Rep. Moore overlaps with 41 percent of the new AL-1 territory. Since Carl and Moore are the only Republican candidates, no runoff election will be necessary.

As a result of the reconfiguration, a new Montgomery/Mobile-anchored 2nd District was designed to elect an African American. A total of 13 Democrats and eight Republicans are running for the new seat. Expect runoff elections to occur for both parties. The runoff election date is April 2. Democrats are expected to gain a net of one seat under the new court ordered map.

Georgia: The new Georgia congressional plan was completed and received court approval during the Christmas break. The court previously ruled that the plan should be drawn to create another majority minority district. The legislature and governor complied with the ruling in that they converted a racial coalition district into a majority minority seat. Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) is moving from her current 7th District that lies east of Atlanta back to a more western suburban seat that is closer to the district from which she was originally elected. She should have little trouble winning the new 6th District.

Conversely, current 6th District Congressman Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee) will run in the new 7th CD that is Republican favorable. Therefore, expect no change in the 9R-5D Georgia delegation party division.

New Mexico: Republicans challenged the 3D-0R congressional map as an “excessive gerrymander,” but lost at the district court level. The New Mexico state Supreme Court then rejected the Republican appeal. Therefore, the current map will stand for the 2024 election, and likely throughout the decade.

The state’s 2nd District, while designed to elect a Democrat, is competitive and we can expect to see another tight election contest between freshman Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-Las Cruces) and former US Rep. Yvette Herrell (R). The 2022 race between the two ended with Vasquez unseating then-Rep. Herrell by less than one percentage point.

North Carolina: Republicans scored a big victory here, as the new map will yield the GOP a net three-seat gain. With Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro) not seeking re-election, the Democrats are conceding the new 6th District without even fielding a candidate. Six Republicans are vying for the party nomination including former US Rep. Mark Walker and High Point Mayor Jay Wagner.

Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary) foregoing re-election in the new 13th District to run for the Senate in 2026 means the Republicans are a sure bet to convert this seat, too. A total of 14 Republicans have qualified for the ballot in this district.

The new 14th CD is another seat primed to go Republican. Democratic incumbent Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte) is running for Attorney General, meaning state House Speaker Tim Moore (R-Cleveland County) is becoming the prohibitive favorite to win this district.

The most competitive general election appears to be forming in the state’s 1st District where Democratic freshman Don Davis (D-Snow Hill/Rocky Mount) faces more Republican terrain in his new district. Former congressional nominee Sandy Smith and retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout are vying for the party nomination. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a new 50.9D – 47.7R partisan lean, meaning the seat now only leans Democratic. Under the previous map, the 1st District partisan lean was factored as 54.1D – 44.4R.

States in Progress

Florida: The Florida congressional map was declared illegal at the district level, but the state Appellate Court overturned the ruling. Therefore, it is likely the current map will stand at least for the 2024 election cycle.

Louisiana: Like Alabama, Louisiana was under court order to redraw their map for purposes of creating another majority minority congressional seat. The court has given the legislature and its new governor, Republican Jeff Landry, until the end of this month to submit a new plan. It is likely that the two most affected Republicans will be Reps. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge) and Julia Letlow (R-Start). It is probable that Democrats will gain one seat in the Baton Rouge area once the final plan is completed and adopted.

New York: The New York congressional map has been returned to the New York State Independent Redistricting Commission for a redraw. The new map will require approval from the state legislature. This is the “wild card” plan for the 2024 election cycle. Most believe Democrats will make big gains, and the current map favors the party, yet their candidates could not deliver what was expected in 2022. Should some of the districts be made more Democratic, other marginal seats in the adjacent areas could become more Republican.

The areas most likely to be affected are Long Island, Brooklyn/Manhattan, the Hudson Valley, and the upstate area in and around Syracuse. Expect Democratic gains once the process is complete, but it is difficult to project just how many.

South Carolina: The US Supreme Court has heard oral arguments on a lawsuit challenging the 1st District (Rep. Nancy Mace-R) as a racial gerrymander. The high court ruling is pending. A decision for the plaintiffs could mean the loss of one Republican seat. Rejecting their claim would mean the current 6R-1D delegation map will likely stand throughout the remainder of the decade.

Wisconsin: During the Christmas break, the state Supreme Court ordered a redraw of the state Senate and Assembly boundaries but did not rule on the congressional map. Most expect the court to order a federal reconfiguration as well, but time is growing short. The Secretary of State has informed the court that new maps will have to be in place before March 15 in order to conduct 2024 elections. A new congressional map would likely mean a net gain of at least one seat for the Democrats.

Porter Edges Schiff, Garvey Alive; Republican Candidate in AL-2; Election Day Notes

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 7, 2023

Senate

California Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank)

Cal Berkeley Poll: Porter Edges Schiff, Garvey Alive — The University of California at Berkeley’s Institute for Governmental Studies (IGS) released their latest Golden State survey (Oct. 24-30; 6,342 registered California voters; 4,506 likely March 5th California primary voters; online) finds US Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) eclipsing US Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) by a scant 17-16 percent plurality within the large all-party field. While the 17 percent support number represents no gain for Porter when compared to the IGS August study, it does show Schiff losing four percentage points within the same time period. Among self-identified Democratic respondents, the two are tied at 26 percent apiece.

Former professional baseball star Steve Garvey (R), has increased his position now that he is an announced candidate. He finished third in the IGS poll with 10 percent support. The race is close enough that if Garvey can coalesce the GOP support around his candidacy (a total of 21 percent chose a Republican candidate), he could secure a general election ballot position. Among Republican respondents, Garvey receives 27 percent support as compared to 13 and 12 percent for candidates James Bradley and Eric Early.

The Golden State, like Louisiana and Washington, employs an all-party jungle primary system. In California, all candidates are placed on the March 5 ballot and the top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation or primary percentage attained, qualify for the general election. Democrats are favored to hold the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s (D) seat that appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) now holds, but whether a Republican qualifies for the general election or two Democrats advance from the primary remains to be seen.

House

AL-2: Republicans Field Candidate — Though the new court ordered map has drawn a new Montgomery-Mobile district designed to elect a black Democrat, Republicans now have a candidate to compete in a general election campaign. Former state Sen. Dick Brewbaker announced over the weekend that he will file for the new congressional seat. Democrats already see seven announced candidates including two state senators, two state representatives, a Jefferson County Commissioner, and two minor candidates.

The candidate filing deadline is this week, on Nov. 10, so the official candidate field will soon be set. The Alabama statewide partisan primary is March 5. If no one secures majority support in the first election, a secondary runoff vote between the top two finishers will be held on April 2, 2024.

States

Election Day: Kentucky, Mississippi & Virginia — Today is election day around the country, and the contests drawing the most attention are occurring in Kentucky, Mississippi, and Virginia.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) runs for a second term while Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R) opposes him. This contest has the potential to be close. The latest poll, from Emerson College (Oct. 30-Nov. 2; 1,000 likely Kentucky voters; multiple sampling techniques), finds Cameron taking a lead for the first time in the race, with a 49-48 percent edge. A Cameron victory would be viewed as a major upset.

Another upset is possible in Mississippi. Public Service Commission Brandon Presley (D) is polling close to Gov. Tate Reeves (R) who, like Gov. Beshear in Kentucky, is on the ballot for a second term. The latest available survey comes from Public Policy Polling for the Democratic Governors Association (Oct. 19-20; 601 likely Mississippi voters; live interview & text) and the results find Gov. Reeves’ previous much larger lead dropping to just 46-45 percent. Polling was similar four years ago and Reeves considerably outperformed the polling. It remains to be seen if that pattern repeats itself tomorrow.

Virginia hosts critical state legislative elections with all 140 seats in the General Assembly up for election. Republicans hold a two-vote margin in the House of Delegates; Democrats a two-vote edge in the state Senate. Majorities in both houses are very much up for grabs in redistricted seats where candidates are running for the first time.

Trends coming from these elections, plus the Republican outright victory in Louisiana back in October, could set a precursor trend for the regular 2024 elections.