By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 22, 2026
US House
Second-term Rep. Dan Goldman (D-New York City)
According to a new Emerson College survey May 16-17; 450 likely NY-10 Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques; part of a three-district survey project), second-term Rep. Dan Goldman (D-New York City) could join Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and Reps. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) and Thomas Massie (R-KY) in the growing group of incumbents failing to secure renomination.
The EC poll of New York’s 10th Congressional District, which covers lower Manhattan’s west side and then crosses the harbor to capture part of Brooklyn, finds former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander posting a commanding 57-23 percent lead over the incumbent as the candidates head toward New York’s June 23 Democratic primary.
The Emerson poll is the second survey showing the Congressman trailing Lander, who draws support from the party’s far left wing, including Sens. Bernie Sanders (I‑VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D‑MA), along with the Democratic Socialists of America, even though Rep. Goldman is firmly established on the left himself and a vocal congressional critic of President Trump.
Schoen Cooperman Research released its survey in early May (May 1–4; 465 likely NY‑10 Democratic primary voters), projecting a 47-42 percent lead for Lander, well below the Emerson margin but still a challenger advantage.
Though the incumbent defeats have so far occurred within the Republican Party, there are roughly a dozen serious or reasonably serious Democratic primary challenges emerging across the country. Almost all feature younger challengers taking on older incumbents and calling for a “new generation of leadership.”
The Goldman-Lander campaign does not fit that description, and while the race might be framed as an ideological battle, the two candidates’ issue positions do not widely differ. Therefore, seeing such a large margin in the Emerson poll – with the incumbent on the short end – is particularly surprising. The arguments being made to justify replacing Rep. Goldman will be interesting to monitor.
New York’s 10th District was created as an open seat in the 2021 redistricting process. This occurred because the new map paired Rep. Jerrold Nadler, from his former 10th District, with Rep. Carolyn Maloney, from her 12th District. As a result, a new 10th District was drawn with Nadler and Maloney facing each other in the new 12th – a contest that Rep. Nadler ultimately won.
In the new NY-10, a total of nine 2022 Democratic candidates competed for the party nomination that Goldman, an heir to the Levi Strauss family fortune, ultimately won with just 26 percent of the vote under New York’s plurality primary system.
Among the contenders he defeated were, in order of finish, state Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou, former Westchester County Congressman Mondaire Jones, NYC Councilwoman Carlina Rivera, state Assemblywoman Jo Anne Simon, Elizabeth Holtzman — a former Congresswoman, 1980 US Senate nominee, ex-Kings County District Attorney, and, like Lander, a NYC Comptroller — and even former Mayor Bill de Blasio, who dropped out after early polls showed he had no viable path to victory.
The 10th District is solidly Democratic. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, NY-10 has a partisan lean of 86.3D – 10.8R. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried the district over Donald Trump by a wide 79-19 percent margin. As a result, Rep. Goldman’s primary obstacle to re-election is the Democratic primary itself.
Brad Lander is a former multi‑term NYC Councilman who won the Comptroller’s office in 2021 but risked the position last year in an unsuccessful run for Mayor. Although he opposed Zohran Mamdani in that race, the two formed an endorsing alliance under the Ranked Choice Voting system used in the city’s elections. Each urged his supporters to rank the other as their second choice on the RCV ballot.
In the congressional race, Lander has Mayor Mamdani’s endorsement and is drawing substantial support from his core coalition.
Aside from whatever advantage Rep. Goldman may gain from incumbency, which may not amount to much in the current political climate, his primary strength is financial. The final weeks of the campaign will be decisive, but the incumbent appears to face an unusually steep obstacle with little time remaining. As of now, Rep. Goldman seems to have long odds for success.
