Category Archives: Polling

House, Governor, City & State Wrap up

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 12, 2025

House

Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly passed away Wednesday, May 21, 2025.

VA-11 — Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has scheduled the special election to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) for Sept. 9. It is now up to the local party congressional district committees to decide upon the type of nomination system to employ. Democrats have chosen the “firehouse primary” option, which features only a few polling places throughout the district. The firehouse special primary is scheduled for June 28. Republicans have yet to decide between a firehouse primary or a party convention.

Democrats will be heavily favored to hold the seat. The leading candidates are Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D) and state Sen. Stella Pekarsky (D-Centreville).

CO-3 — Former Colorado Republican Party Vice Chair Hope Scheppelman announced a primary challenge from the right to freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Grand Junction). It remains to be seen if this challenge will develop into a serious campaign. Irrespective of the primary situation, Rep. Hurd will be favored for renomination and re-election in a district where the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 52.6R – 43.3D partisan lean.

GA-13 — State Rep. Jasmine Clark (D-Lilburn) has joined the crowded Democratic primary challenging veteran Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta). Previously announced major candidates are state Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur) and former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair (D). While Rep. Scott says he plans to seek a 13th term in the House, he has major health concerns, and the prevailing political opinion is that he will announce his retirement before the state’s March candidate filing deadline.

MD-5 — Saying the 85-year-old longest-serving House Democrat should retire due to his advanced age, public safety consultant Harry Jarin, 35 years old, announced a Democratic primary challenge against former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville). For his part, Rep. Hoyer has yet to say whether he will seek a 24th term, but most expect him to run again. He will be 87 years old at the time of the next general election.

NE-2 — State Sen. John Cavanaugh (D-Omaha), whose father, former US Rep. John J. Cavanaugh, III (D), served two terms in the House during the 1970s, announced that he will run for the congressional seat in 2026. He will face a crowded Democratic primary featuring political consultant Denise Powell, surgeon Mark Johnston, and attorney Van Argyrakis. The eventual nominee will face five-term Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) who says he will announce whether he will seek another term during the summer. Nebraska’s 2nd District continues to be one of the most competitive in the country.

PA-8 — Former six-term Congressman Matt Cartwright (D), who lost his seat last November to freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township/Scranton), said he will not return for a re-match next year. This leaves the Democrats with no major candidate in a what is projected to be a competitive 2026 congressional race. Republicans ousted two incumbent Pennsylvania House members in 2024, Reps. Cartwright and Susan Wild (D-Allentown). Neither are forging a comeback attempt next year.

WA-9 — Former Seattle City Councilwoman Kshama Sawant, a self-identified socialist, announced that she will challenge veteran Rep. Adam Smith (D-Bellevue) as an Independent in next year’s general election. Sawant served three terms as an at-large City Councilwoman, leaving office in 2023. She survived a recall attempt in a close 2021 vote. Rep. Smith, the Ranking Minority Member of the House Armed Services Committee, is expected to seek a 16th term and will be a prohibitive favorite for re-election.

Governor

Arizona — A new survey that the American Commitment organization sponsored (May 23-25; 1,147 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; online) finds Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) moving into a commanding lead over 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson for the state’s Republican gubernatorial nomination. According to the ballot test result, Rep. Biggs would lead Robson, 57-25 percent.

Earlier, Noble Predictive Insights released their general election poll (May 12-16; 1,026 registered Arizona voters; online) and projects Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) to be leading Rep. Biggs 40-38 percent, and Robson by a similar 41-39 percent count. This latter poll confirms what has been expected, that the 2026 Governor’s race will yield another hotly contested political battle.

Connecticut — In a news conference with reporters to discuss the end of the Connecticut legislative session, Gov. Ned Lamont (D) sent clear signals that he is heading toward announcing his candidacy for a third term. The political field has largely been frozen awaiting the Governor’s political decision. Should he announce for re-election, Lamont will be rated as a clear favorite to secure a third term.

Florida — Former Rep. David Jolly, who won a 2014 special election in the Pinellas County seat as a Republican lobbyist but then lost re-election in 2016 to party switcher Charlie Crist (D), became a GOP critic on national news shows. He switched his party identification to Independent after losing the House seat and then moved to the Democratic column.

This week, Jolly announced his candidacy for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. He becomes the first significant Democrat to enter the race. While Jolly may be competitive for his new party’s nomination, Republicans will be favored to hold the Governorship in an open election. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is the leading Republican gubernatorial candidate.

Iowa — While most political observers are watching whether state Attorney General Brenna Bird will join the open Republican gubernatorial primary to battle Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) for the party nomination, state Rep. Eddie Andrews (R-Johnston) announced that he is joining the race. State Sen. Mike Bousselot (R-Des Moines) is also a GOP gubernatorial candidate. Democrats are coalescing behind their lone statewide elected official, state Auditor Rob Sand. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking a third term.

Maine — A newly published Pan Atlantic research firm poll (May 12-26; 840 likely Maine voters; 325 likely Maine Democratic primary voters; online) finds businessman Angus King, III leading the open Democratic gubernatorial primary with 33 percent preference. In second place is Secretary of State Shenna Bellows at 24 percent. Following is unannounced candidate Hannah Pingree with 20 percent while former state Senate President Troy Jackson posts 13 percent support. King is the son of Sen. Angus King (I-ME), while Pingree is Rep. Chellie Pingree’s (D-North Haven/ Portland) daughter. Gov. Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

South Carolina — Democratic state Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D-Hopkins), a former basketball star for the College of Charleston, has formed an exploratory committee to test his chances in the open Governor’s race. Rep. Johnson is the first Democrat to make any move toward running for Governor which will be an uphill open general election race against the eventual Republican nominee.

City & State

Detroit — According to a new Detroit News and WDIV-TV poll that the Glengariff Group conducted (May 27-29; 500 likely Detroit mayoral election voters; live interview), City Council President Mary Sheffield (D) has a large lead to replace incumbent Mayor Mike Duggan, who is running for Governor as an Independent. The poll results post Sheffield to a 38-14-9-8 percent advantage over local Pastor Solomon Kinloch (D), former Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R), and ex-City Council President Saunteel Jenkins (D). The city’s jungle primary is scheduled for Aug. 5.

New Orleans — A JMC Analytics poll (May 27-28; 500 likely New Orleans mayoral election voters; live interview) sees New Orleans City Councilwoman Helena Moreno (D) capturing a majority vote for the upcoming open Oct. 11 jungle primary to replace term-limited incumbent LaToya Cantrell (D). According to the polling data, Moreno would lead City Councilman Oliver Thomas (D) 52-23 percent, with no other candidate in close proximity. If no one receives majority support on Oct. 11, the top two finishers will advance to a Nov. 15 runoff election.

Sen. Ernst Draws Dem Opponent

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 6, 2025

Senate

Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) / Photo by Sage Naumann

Two-term Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) has drawn her first prominent Democratic opponent, and the individual claims his decision to run is a reaction to a comment she made at a recent town hall event saying, “we are all going to die,” in response to a Medicare funding query.

Iowa state Rep. J.D. Scholten (D-Sioux City), who failed in his 2018 congressional race against then-Rep. Steve King (R), and again in the 2020 open seat campaign opposite current Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City), announced that he will challenge Sen. Ernst next year. Scholten becomes the first sitting Democratic office holder to enter the Senate race.

In an interview with a Des Moines Register newspaper reporter, Scholten explained his motivation for quickly deciding to run after hearing about Sen. Ernst’s comments. In the interview, Scholten said, “… and just sitting there, contemplating life like you do at a funeral, I just thought I need to do this,” he said. “And so then when she doubled down on Saturday with her, I felt, very disrespectful comments, I was like, OK, game on.”

Sen. Ernst was first elected in 2014 with a 51-43 percent open seat victory over then-Rep. Bruce Braley (D) in the battle to replace retiring Sen. Tom Harkin (D). Six years later, she was re-elected with a 51-44 percent victory over Iowa real estate company executive Theresa Greenfield (D) in a campaign where the Senator was outspent by a 2:1 ratio. The aggregate expenditure level between the two candidate committees almost reached $84 million.

In each of those elections, the Democratic candidate over-polled and led early. In the 2014 Senate contest between Ernst and Braley, the Republican state Senator and the Democratic House member were trading the polling lead through most of the race. The contest began to gel for Ernst in October, when she ran ahead of Braley in 12 of 14 polls with four ties.

Though the pollsters were correctly forecasting an Ernst win, they badly missed on the margin as her victory spread was 8.3 percentage points as opposed to an average point lead of just 2.3, according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives.

In the 2020 Senate race, we saw a different pattern yet with a similar conclusion. From September through mid-October, Greenfield held a consistent polling lead. Sen. Ernst began to rebound around Oct. 20 and saw the polling edge begin to flip between the two candidates with the incumbent clinging to a small advantage. In the end, Sen. Ernst was re-elected with a 6.6 percent margin, again well beyond what most pollsters forecast.

Throughout President Donald Trump’s elections the discussed familiar Iowa polling pattern was also present as far back as the 2016 election cycle. Trump and Hillary Clinton were going back and forth in polling for most of the election. In November, Trump began to pull away but averaged only a three-point lead. On election night, he recorded a Hawkeye State victory margin of just under 10 percentage points.

The 2020 polls again produced this repetitive pattern. Ballot test results were seesawing through most of the cycle with Trump forging ahead of Joe Biden at the end with a small average (2.0 percent, in this case), yet would win by 8.2 points when the actual ballots were counted.

In 2024, the state was being polled less possibly because the previous patterns would again likely yield to a strong Republican push at the end that would nullify early polling results. As with every major Iowa election since 2014, the Republican candidate was underestimated. Trump’s 2024 positive Iowa polling average was 4.3 points, again according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, yet his victory margin broke the 13-point plateau.

Expect a similar pattern to develop for the current election in that polling will likely show this 2026 Senatorial contest to be relatively close through most of the election cycle. In the closing days, it is probable that Sen. Ernst will pull away and win with a larger vote margin than the polling average will suggest.

New Texas Data Shows Mixed Results

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 3, 2025

Senate

Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

A new YouGov poll conducted for the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University produces mixed results for veteran GOP Sen. John Cornyn, who has largely seen poor polling data since the year began.

The YouGov survey (May 9-19; 1,200 registered Texas voters; online) projects Sen. Cornyn trailing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton 34-27 percent on the Republican primary ballot test but finds him leading prospective Senate candidate Wesley Hunt, the two-term 38th District Congressman who represents a district wholly contained within Harris County. In the three-way YouGov survey, Hunt draws 15 percent support.

While the Senator still trails AG Paxton beyond the polling margin of error, this ballot test is definitely an improvement with regard to his standing within the Texas Republican Party. The last three publicly released GOP primary polls found Paxton at or over 50 percent when directly paired with Sen. Cornyn.

The better news for the Senator is that he fares well in general election pairings with the Democrats who are considering entering the statewide contest.

Tested against former Rep. Colin Allred, the Democratic 2024 Senate nominee against Sen. Ted Cruz (R), Cornyn would lead 48-44 percent. Opposite former Congressman, ex-statewide and 2020 presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke, the Cornyn advantage is 49-43 percent. If Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) were to become a Senate candidate and win the party nomination, Sen. Cornyn would top him by seven percentage points, 48-41 percent.

While Paxton and Hunt also top the Democrats in every iteration, Sen. Cornyn fares best. The other point of note is to acknowledge that Texas Republicans typically under-poll on ballot tests.

For example, in 2024 President Trump averaged just under a seven-point lead in polls from Sept. 1 through the election according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives but won the state by almost 14 percentage points. Sen. Cruz was running an average of four points ahead of then-Congressman Allred in the same polls from Sept. 1 through the election but recorded a winning margin of almost nine percentage points.

The bad news for Sen. Cornyn comes when comparing the candidates’ favorability indexes. Within a sample cell of Republican primary voters, and in polling the at-large electorate, Sen. Cornyn posts the most negative numbers. President Trump scores best within the Republican sample with an 85:14 positive to negative ratio. Gov. Greg Abbott is next with a 78:20 score, just ahead of Sen. Cruz’s 77:21. AG Paxton records a 68:22 total, while Sen. Cornyn only reaches a 57:34 figure within his own party.

The general electorate indexes are similar. Here, Sen. Cornyn is one of three political figures who are not rated with positive favorability scores. The four-term incumbent is viewed positively by only 39 percent of the general election polling sample versus 47 percent who have an unfavorable impression of him.

Former Congressman O’Rourke is also in negative territory with an upside-down 43:49 percent ratio. Paxton’s index is dead-even with 44 percent responding positively and 44 percent expressing a negative view. Rep. Castro posts a 34:27 favorable ratio, while Rep. Hunt is also in positive territory but with a lower name identification. His favorability index is 28:19.

Part of the reason Sen. Cornyn fails to score better among Republicans is the impression that he is not supremely supportive of President Trump, along with his record on gun control issues. Many believe his defense of the Second Amendment, which protects the right of individuals to keep and bear arms, is not strong enough.

To improve his standing with the party faithful, Sen. Cornyn has recently contracted President Trump’s pollster, Fabrizio Lee & Associates, while former Trump co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita has just joined the leadership team for a Super PAC supporting the Senator.

Sen. Cornyn is making these types of moves to hopefully keep President Trump neutral in the race, knowing that an endorsement for Paxton could doom his renomination effort; according to the aforementioned YouGov poll, 49 percent of the Republican primary voters are more likely to vote for a candidate that President Trump endorses.

Paxton was an early supporter of Trump, but the White House is also keenly aware of the Attorney General’s weaker standing before the general electorate due to negative publicity involving bribery accusations, an impeachment in the state House of Representatives, and having a well-known extramarital affair — though he remains married to state Sen. Angela Paxton (R-Allen/Plano).

Considering Texas’ early March 3 primary date, we can expect the Lone Star State’s Senate race to attract the most attention of any campaign within the early election cycle.

Georgia Gov. Kemp Out; Which
Other Governors Could Be In?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 8, 2025

Senate

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R)

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s announcement earlier in the week that he would not challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) next year was surprising to many but not all political observers.

In fact, it’s possible that we will see all of the Governors or ex-Governors who could run for the Senate in the various states take a pass on challenging a Senatorial incumbent or competing in an open seat situation.

The Kemp announcement now unfreezes the Republicans waiting in the wings who want to run statewide. Individuals who have expressed interest or at least confirm they are considering challenging Sen. Ossoff, include four members of the US House delegation. They are: Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome). Also counted among the possible candidates are state Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper and state Insurance Commissioner John King.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution newspaper conducted a statewide Georgia poll (April 15-24; 1,000 registered Georgia voters) and found Gov. Kemp, if he were to challenge Sen. Ossoff, leading the prospective race 49-46 percent.

Now, without Kemp in the candidate field, the advantage turns to Ossoff. The AJC poll found him leading King 51-38 percent, and topping Rep. Greene, 54-37 percent. Also tested was Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger who has said he’s considering a Senate bid but is more likely to enter the open Governor’s race. Raffensperger, however, polls best within this group against Sen. Ossoff, trailing 48-39 percent in the AJC poll. Reps. Carter, McCormick, and Collins were not tested.

The outlook suggests that the Georgia Republicans will now see a crowded Senate primary field, meaning it will become difficult for one candidate to win the nomination outright. The 2026 Peach State election calendar has not yet been set, but the likely statewide primary date will be May 19, 2026, with a runoff for the top two finishers, should no one reach the 50 percent threshold, probably scheduled for June 16. Therefore, the most plausible projection is that the Georgia GOP won’t have an official Senate nominee until late June of next year.

With Sen. Ossoff already possessing over $11 million in his campaign account, a number that will grow exponentially before the Republicans nominate their Senate candidate, he is in a favorable pre-election position.

Elsewhere, there are a dozen situations where a Governor or ex-Governor could conceivably run for an open Senate seat or challenge an incumbent of the opposite party.

Of the 12, we see one reverse situation. Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) appears intent on running for an open gubernatorial position.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) could look at an open Senate seat campaign if Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) decides to run for Governor as expected, and Maine’s Janet Mills (D) could challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R) with the encouragement of many Democratic leaders. Neither, however, is likely to run for Senate because both are over or nearing 80 years old.

Aside from Gov. Kemp, four other Governors have already turned down opportunities to run for the Senate.

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) has already endorsed Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D) to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D), while the Governor himself appears to be preparing a third run for his current position.

Term-limited Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is very likely to run for President in 2028 and will therefore bypass a run for her state’s open Senate seat.

Like Gov. Pritzker in Illinois, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, has endorsed Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan to replace retiring US Sen. Tina Smith (D). As with Pritzker, Gov. Walz is preparing to run for a third term.

New Hampshire ex-Gov. Chris Sununu (R), who like Gov. Kemp in Georgia would give the Republicans their best chance of converting a Democratic Senate seat, has also said he will not run in 2026. His future plans are only speculated upon, but a future presidential bid would not be out of the question.

Term-limited Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D) is not mentioned as a possible presidential candidate, but party leaders are encouraging her to challenge first-term Sen. Roger Marshall (R). It remains to be seen what the Governor will decide for 2026.

Two term-limited Governors and one ex-state chief executive are at the forefront of presidential prognostication, yet each sees a viable Senate situation developing in their respective state.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) could challenge Sen. Mark Warner (D) next year, since his one term will expire in early 2026. Though clearly looking at a presidential run, Gov. Youngkin, and any Republican, would face an uphill battle against Vice President J.D. Vance for the party nomination. A race against Sen. Warner would also be uphill, so Gov. Youngkin may see his electoral window closing.

On the Democratic side, Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) and former Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) could enter what promises to be a very crowded 2028 Democratic presidential campaign. Should only one of these two run, that individual, either Beshear or Cooper coming from the southern region, would be a viable prospective nominee because of their opportunity to accumulate a large quantity of delegate support from the vote-rich South.

Signs are pointing to a situation where the aforementioned Governors or ex-Governors follow the Sununu and Kemp example and decline their party leaders overtures to launch a 2026 Senate campaign.

Again, Cornyn Trails

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 5, 2025

Senate

Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R)

The Houston Chronicle has published a story about a new poll that Trump 2020 campaign manager Brad Parscale released to an HC reporter about the upcoming Texas Senate Republican primary.

The ballot test again shows incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) badly trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is an announced primary competitor. Parscale was a consultant for Paxton’s 2022 successful re-election campaign.

The survey release includes sketchy methodological information, however. The firm conducting the poll is not identified and the sampling period is listed as only “mid-April.” The respondent universe consists of 605 “voters.” It is also unclear whether the respondents were questioned through live interview, an interactive voice response system, text, or online website.

In any event, the ballot test finds Paxton leading Sen. Cornyn, 50-33 percent. Even if President Trump were to endorse Sen. Cornyn, the incumbent still does not forge ahead, though this poll shows he would close to within a 44-38 percent deficit. While the spreads seem head scratching, they are in relative concurrence with other released polls of the race, even one conducted as far back as 2022.

In early March, Lake Research Associates, a Democratic firm, polled the Texas Republican electorate and found Paxton topping Cornyn, 38-27 percent. In early February, the Fabrizio Lee & Associates firm released their results that are similar to the Parscale poll’s current figures, 53-28 percent. Victory Insights January poll found a 42-34 percent Paxton lead. The 2022 reference was from a CWS Research survey taken in early July of that year. The then-hypothetical Cornyn-Paxton ballot test yielded a 51-31 percent advantage for Paxton.

The obvious common theme is that Sen. Cornyn trails in every publicly released survey over a long period. The polling, however, is not the full story.

A non-profit organization, Standing for Texas, is running ads in the major media markets with the exception of Rep. Wesley Hunt’s (R) hometown of Houston, positively profiling the Congressman and clearly laying the groundwork for a statewide run. Curiously, however, the latest polls do not include Rep. Hunt as a Senate candidate, even though signs are clear that he intends to enter the contest. The addition of Rep. Hunt, and/or other candidates, could certainly change the campaign trajectory.

Sen. Cornyn’s problem is that large numbers within the Texas GOP base believe him to be a RINO (Republican In Name Only) because he has strayed from the typical party position on several issues. A fair characterization or not, it is clear that Sen. Cornyn will have to neutralize this image in order to forge a winning coalition.

Paxton, however, is a flawed candidate. He was impeached in the Republican state House of Representatives in 2023 but not convicted in a trial before the state Senate. Yet, the proceeding brought to the forefront bribery accusations and the acknowledgment of an extra-marital affair. Therefore, Paxton would be an easy target for the eventual Democratic nominee in a general election.

Another Paxton problem could be fundraising. A great deal of his state campaign resources come from large donations, which are legal under Texas election law. Raising money for a statewide race in the nation’s second largest domain in increments not to exceed $3,500 for the nomination election means Paxton will have a harder time raising the funds necessary to run a strong primary campaign.

Both Sen. Cornyn and Rep. Hunt have obviously raised sizable amounts under the federal guidelines. The current Federal Election Commission disclosure reports find Sen. Cornyn holding almost $5.6 million in his campaign account, while Rep. Hunt has over $2.8 million. Paxton did not file a first quarter report because he was not yet an official candidate.

On the Democratic side, no major candidate has yet come forth but 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred, now a former Congressman, confirms he is considering returning for a 2026 campaign. Former Congressman and failed presidential, US Senate, and gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke says he is not “closing the door” on entering the Senate race. Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) is another possibility as is astronaut Terry Verts.

It appears we will see a great deal of early action from candidates in both parties for the Texas Senate race. The party primaries are scheduled for March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate secures majority support. Regardless of the outcome of each nomination contest, we can expect the Texas Senate campaign cycle to yield a tough and close months-long campaign.

Democratic Rep. Sherrill Leads
In New Jersey Governor Polls

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 2, 2025

Governor

New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D)

The open 2025 New Jersey Governor’s race could have a direct effect upon the US House of Representatives.

Both Reps. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) and Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) are battling for their party’s statewide nomination. If either wins the primary and subsequent general election, another Democratic vacancy will occur in the House thus forcing a special election to be called.

A series of recent New Jersey gubernatorial polls find Rep. Sherrill leading a crowded open Democratic field, but her advantage is small. Three polls have been released in the immediate past with noted Democratic pollster Global Strategy Group in the unusual situation of conducting surveys for two candidates (Gottheimer and Sherrill) in the same race.

The most recent statewide poll, from New Jersey’s Rutgers University (released April 25; conducted April 1-10; 966 registered New Jersey voters; 556 likely New Jersey Democratic primary voters; online), sees Rep. Sherrill leading her Democratic opponents 17-12-10-9-9-7 percent against Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Montclair Mayor and New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller, Rep. Gottheimer, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney, respectively.

This result does not greatly differ from the Global Strategy Group survey for the Gottheimer campaign. That poll (April 1-3; 900 likely New Jersey Democratic primary voters) showed a more tightly bunched field but with Sherrill continuing to place first. In this result, Sherrill edge is 19-14-13-11-11-5 percent over Gottheimer, Fulop, Baraka, Spiller, and Sweeney.

The Sherrill campaign conducted its Global Strategy Group survey just after the Gottheimer study was completed. The results (April 6-8; 600 likely New Jersey Democratic primary voters) differed significantly from the other published results and are distinctly different from their own poll for Rep. Gottheimer conducted just days before.

According to the GSG poll for the Sherrill campaign, their candidate leads 25-15-13-13-12-6 percent, over Rep. Gottheimer, Mayors Fulop and Baraka, Spiller, and former Sen. Sweeney. A bit surprisingly, the Sherrill and Gottheimer surveys, again with the same research firm conducting both studies and just days apart, arrive at substantially different results.

While Sherrill consistently leads, her margins can certainly be overcome especially since she has topped 20 percent in only her own internal poll. On the other hand, the Congresswoman has spent less in terms of advertising dollars than her major opponents to date but still maintains a consistent edge.

The New Jersey primary is scheduled for June 10, so this campaign will hit its full stride soon. As is the case in virtually all crowded primaries, whichever candidate has the most fervent support and the best organization to turn out their vote typically wins.

As mentioned above, should either Reps. Sherrill or Gottheimer advance to the general election and defeat likely GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli, the former state legislator who held Gov. Phil Murphy (D) to a close win in 2021, the Democrats would be down another House vote for several months until a special election can be conducted.

Both the Gottheimer and Sherrill seats could become competitive in a special election. Gottheimer’s 5th CD and Sherrill’s 11th District both lie in northern New Jersey and share a common border.

The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculations find Democrats holding the advantage, 53.0D – 45.3R in the 5th, and 54.7D – 43.7R in the 11th, so either district in an open situation would potentially be in play during a special election campaign.

Here We Go Again

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 15, 2025

Senate

The 2024 election cycle featured a Nebraska US Senate race that was billed as a potential upset but failed as Election Day approached. That same losing Independent candidate looks to be returning in 2026, and a new poll suggests a repeating pattern.

Nebraska US Senate candidate Dan Osborn (I)

In 2024, Nebraska US Senate candidate Dan Osborn (I) received a great deal of national political attention because the polls were consistently showing him running ahead or even with Sen. Deb Fischer (R) for most of the campaign cycle.

In fact, from late September through the election, 12 polls were released of the Nebraska Senate race and Osborn led in seven. This, despite the electorate not voting for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964. Additionally, GOP nominees for Senator and Governor averaged 60.4 percent of the vote since 2006, which was the last time a Democratic Senator (Ben Nelson) or Governor was on the Cornhusker State ballot.

Osborn did well because the Democrats, once the Independent demonstrated he was a legitimate contender, decided not to file their own candidate. They were comfortable in supporting Osborn because he is generally in ideological alignment with the Democratic platform.

In the end, Sen. Fischer won re-election with a comfortable six-point margin and carried 91 of the state’s 93 counties.

Nebraska polling was inconsistent during the 2024 election cycle. The pollsters correctly predicted an easy Donald Trump victory and former Vice President Kamala Harris carrying the state’s 2nd Congressional District but largely missed the Senate race until the very end, while projecting Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) to be running consistently behind even though he again won a close re-election.

Now, a new Change Research poll finds another Nebraska US Senate dead heat result, this time between Osborn and Sen. Pete Ricketts (R). The recent CR data result (March 28-April 1; 524 likely Nebraska 2026 general election voters; online through Survey Monkey) projects Sen. Ricketts holding only a 46-45 percent lead over Osborn.

The Senator also posted an upside-down favorability index. According to the CR survey, only 38 percent of the respondents hold a favorable view of Ricketts, while 45 percent have an unfavorable impression. The same sample, however, rates President Trump with a 55:43 percent positive index.

The favorability numbers fly in the face of the November election returns where Sen. Ricketts, after being appointed to his seat in 2023, recorded a 63-37 percent election victory to serve the balance of the current term. He now must run again in order to clinch a full six-year stint.

The favorability responses for Trump and Ricketts are highly conflicting and certainly eyebrow raising in reference to the latter man. While the President records an 89 percent positive rating among the self-identified Republican respondents, and a 70 percent very favorable, Sen. Ricketts only posts 62 percent favorable among the same cell and a very low 29 percent very favorable mark. This, for a man the Nebraska Republicans have twice overwhelmingly nominated for Governor and once as Senator.

Though Change Research is a reputable pollster, Survey Monkey has proven unreliable. CR employing the Survey Monkey platform is a new methodological factor for the firm, so this particular poll’s reliability must be questioned. Both the current CR ballot test and favorability index in relation to Sen. Ricketts are not consistent with his strong historical electoral performance.

Additionally, the poll also assumes the Nebraska Democrats will not file their own Senate candidate in 2026 and back Osborn by default, as they did in 2024. So far this year, Osborn says he is considering several options which could mean challenging Sen. Ricketts, Gov. Jim Pillen (R), or Rep. Bacon. At this point, he seems to be focusing on Sen. Ricketts, but that may change since plenty of time remains before the state’s March 2026 candidate filing deadline.

For their part, the Democratic leadership has not openly committed to again supporting Osborn. They are likely to do so if he chooses to run against Ricketts, and possibly Gov. Pillen, but the party leaders have been cool to the idea of not filing their own candidate against Rep. Bacon in a politically marginal 2nd Congressional District where a Democrat can win.

Both ex-President Joe Biden and former VP Harris carried the NE-2 against President Trump in 2020 and 2024, yet Rep. Bacon was able to reverse the top-of-the-ticket trend in both of those years to secure re-election.

While Dan Osborn is likely to generate favorable polling responses in a two-way race with Sen. Ricketts and will attract a great deal in the way of campaign resources, electoral history and voting patterns again suggest that Sen. Ricketts should still enjoy a strong re-election run next year.

A Questionable Texas Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 1, 2025

Senate

Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

A new Texas statewide poll shows Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in a hypothetical Senate Republican primary, but the survey contains several flaws.

Lake Research and Slingshot Strategies partnered on a poll for the Texas Public Opinion Research organization (reported only as March 2025; 700 registered Texas voters) and though the study was designed predominantly to test issues and attitudes, the ballot test between Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton, showing the incumbent trailing the challenger 38-27 percent before a Republican vote segment, cannot be considered reliable.

First, there is no indication as to how many people were surveyed as “Republican primary voters” because there is no number disclosure of self-identified Republicans. Using the percentages answering the partisan identification question means the segment cell could possibly only contain a maximum of 315 respondents, which would be very low for a statewide survey in a place the size of Texas.

Secondly, the pollsters did not test the entire proposed GOP field. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) was not included on the ballot question even though he has been firmer in statements about running for the Senate than has Paxton.

Third, the data gathering period was not identified, nor was the data collection method, the latter meaning live interview, Interactive Voice Response system, text, or online. Without this information, it is difficult to detect a proper error factor.

Fourth, a four-term Senate incumbent attracting only 28 percent within his own party on a ballot test is hard to believe, and likely wholly understated, though the Paxton support figure of 38 percent could be about right.

Fifth, the pollsters exhibited a somewhat liberal bias with regard to the types of questions asked and the descriptive language used, especially when describing the abortion question. The query asked respondents if they identify as pro-choice or anti-choice. Certainly, the anti-choice option would receive less support than if described as pro-life.

The favorability index question responses were also curious especially relating to Sen. Cornyn. In fact, of the 11 individuals and institutions queried for a favorable or unfavorable rating, Sen. Cornyn finished dead last (21:43 percent). Again, it is difficult to find credible that a scandal-free elected official who has won six statewide elections (four for US Senate; one for state Attorney General; one for Texas Supreme Court) would perform so badly.

Of all 11 people tested, former Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Colin Allred, the only Democratic politician on the list, finished with the strongest favorability rating, 37:30 percent positive to negative. Allred is the only tested individual or institution to finish with a positive rating even though he lost the Senate race this past November to GOP incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz by almost nine percentage points.

In contrast, both President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance are three points down (Trump: 47:50 percent; Vance: 44:47 percent), yet the Trump-Vance ticket carried the state by almost 14 percentage points.

For his part, AG Paxton scored a 35:40 percent index, which is not particularly bad considering he came within a few state Senate votes of being removed from office in 2023. Again, an argument can be made against the Lake/Slingshot reliability factor when seeing an elected official who was almost removed from office largely by members of his own party (at least in the State House of Representatives) enjoying a better standing within the electorate than a sitting incumbent with no personal scandal who has been elected six times to statewide office.

It will be interesting to see if Paxton ultimately decides to run. While his performance in this Lake/Slingshot poll is stronger than Sen. Cornyn’s, which would encourage him, fundraising under the federal election system will not.

Gone would be the days when a contender could call selected donors and receive major contributions sometimes totaling seven figures as he or she can under Texas election law. Running for Senate, Paxton will have to fund raise in small increments: $3,500 per election, or a grand total of $10,500, if someone wanted to fully support him in the Republican primary, the Republican runoff (if necessary), and the general election.

While certain individuals might contribute large dollars to a Super PAC supporting Paxton or opposing Cornyn, they would have no control over how the money is spent. Furthermore, contributing to an incumbent, as many big donors did for Paxton when he was AG, is much different than contributing major dollars against an incumbent, especially one that many of these same prospective donors have also supported in past campaigns.

Considering Texas will hold its primaries on March 3, 2026, this election campaign will soon be swinging into high gear.

Tomorrow’s Elections

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 31, 2025

Elections

Florida state CFO Jimmy Petronis (R)

Important special elections will be held in Florida and Wisconsin tomorrow, and voting in Louisiana on four constitutional amendments this past Saturday did not go the Republican Governor’s way.

At stake tomorrow are two key Sunshine State Republican congressional seats and a crucial state Supreme Court race that will decide the Wisconsin high court majority. The latter election could lead to significant redistricting ramifications for the 2026 campaign cycle.

Florida — In Florida, Republican Jimmy Patronis, the state’s Chief Financial Officer, appears poised to hold the 1st District for the GOP despite being outspent by his Democratic opponent, athletic trainer Gay Valimont.

Patronis does not live in the 1st District for which he is campaigning. This is the CD that former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) resigned at the beginning of the Congress, thus forcing the special election. The Patronis family, however, owns a major restaurant in the Florida Panhandle which increases Jimmy Patronis’ familiarity throughout the region.

Additionally, he has twice been on the ballot in his statewide runs for CFO, carrying the 1st District both times. Furthermore, at R+38 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization and FL-1 ranking as the 39th-safest seat in the Republican Conference according to the Down Ballot statistical blog makes a Democratic upset here extremely unlikely.

Democrats have greater optimism about the 6th District even though 538 rates this seat as R+28 and Down Ballot forecasts it as the 105th-safest GOP district.

The candidate campaign spending imbalance favors the Democratic nominee, educator Josh Weil, by almost a 10:1 ratio, which has put the seat in play. Two polls were conducted at the end of last week, and both show a small spread between the two candidates, with Weil and Republican nominee Randy Fine, a state Senator, each leading in one.

The Fabrizio Lee & Associates firm tested the race but did not publicly release the data. Yet, it is being reported that this survey found Fine trailing Weil by three percentage points. The only fully released survey, from St. Pete Polls (March 22-25; 403 likely FL-6 special election voters; interactive voice response system & text; 38 percent of whom stated they had already voted), projects Fine leading 48-44 percent.

Additionally, Sen. Fine’s district is more than 100 miles from the heart of Congressional District 6, and he represents no carryover constituents in the CD. Republican leaders have been complaining that Fine is a poor fundraiser but moving him into a district where the average Republican voter has never heard of him makes his task all the more difficult.

A Republican loss here would bring potentially disastrous ramifications to the Trump legislative agenda and at least for the short term reverse the GOP’s positive momentum.

Wisconsin — The stakes are also high in Wisconsin where a Supreme Court race could lead to an early redraw of the current congressional district map. Dane County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford (D) and former state Attorney General Brad Schimel (R) are the candidates but will appear on the ballot with no party label.

Spending on both sides has been heavy. Should Crawford win, it is quite possible the court will then order the congressional map redrawn, which could mean the loss of two Republican seats. This would be especially dangerous for the GOP if the court orders special elections to be held after a redraw is complete.

A superintendent of public instruction election is also being conducted. Both candidates are Democrats, but the more conservative of the two has a fundraising advantage and a chance to defeat the incumbent. A ballot initiative to enshrine the state’s voter ID law in the state constitution is also before the electorate’s consideration.

Louisiana — In Louisiana, Gov. Jeff Landry (R) was advocating for four different constitutional amendments that pertained to several subjects including budget, taxes, spending caps, teacher bonuses, juvenile justice, and special elections.

Liberal organizations, largely intent on defeating the amendment that would have increased penalties for juvenile crime, created a “No on All” campaign to sink all four amendment proposals. Some conservative organizations also opposed several of the ballot propositions for other reasons. A major reason for the landslide defeat of all the measures was their complexity. Some analysts believed the lengthy intricacies of the four amendments made them difficult to fully understand, so the safer move was voting “no on all.”

A Budding Realignment

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 25, 2025

Voting Trends

Former Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

New post-election analysis reports are being released suggesting the foundation for political realignment is being laid, but whether the Republicans can effectively change their vote targeting strategies to take advantage of this new opportunity remains the unanswered question.

There was a great deal of discussion and analysis about the minority voting trends in the 2024 election, but significantly fewer assessments were published or aired pertaining to the changes in the youth vote.

Exit polling was providing some data, but now more reliable information from actual precinct voting totals is available for analysis.

The media reporters highlight exit polling on election nights, because the information is quickly obtained, and it provides them with filler information for the early post poll-closing hours.

The problem is exit that polling is not particularly accurate, because the sampling is not altogether random. The methodology is often flawed because the sample, which generally consists of in-person interviews at polling places and early voters contacted via telephone, is not systematically drawn. In exit polling, individuals typically volunteer to participate. This further skews the sampling universe because the participants are not wholly representative of the active electorate.

The Blue Rose Research entity, a Democratic survey research firm, released a report about the minority and age segmentation data based upon actual votes in statistically significant precincts. Their results, particularly in reference to the youth vote, are quite surprising and could further indicate that the electorate may be in the beginning phase of political realignment.

The Blue Rose report confirms that President Donald Trump performed better among minority voters than most other Republicans, particularly among Hispanic men, but his non-Hispanic White youth support figures are actually astonishing.

Within the White male 18-20 years of age segment, former Vice President Kamala Harris received only 28 percent support. The numbers from this particular study track only the percentage preference for Harris. While the Trump numbers are obviously higher than 28 percent, they are not likely at 72 percent since minor party candidates attracted some support.

The highest level of support for Harris among White men in the age segmentation comes both from those in the 36-38 age range and the 74-75 category. She reached approximately 42 percent support with both of these groups. A second low point for her, 31 percent, is found among those in the 58-60 age segment.

The pendulum swing charting the White female vote is almost identical to that of the male category, but the support numbers for Harris were uniformly higher. Still, she is generally underwater even within this female segment. The Harris highwater mark with White women is 51 percent found in the 27-29 age range. The low is 40 percent within the 57-59 age grouping.

Looking at minority voters, we see Trump’s improvement scores comparing his 2024 support performance to that from 2020. The President gained 12 percentage points among self-described moderate Hispanics and eight percent overall. Among Asians, his improvement percentage among the moderates was nine percent and six percent in the overall Asian grouping.

Despite much coverage of Trump’s stronger standing within the Black community, his strongest segment was only a plus two percent among self-described conservative Blacks, and just one percent overall. Comparing his 2016 Black support factor with 2024, we see a greater gap. Matched with his performance from eight years ago, Trump improved eight percentage points with conservative Blacks and an average of four percent within the entire Black voter cell sample.

Within the male People of Color category, the youngest voters perform best for President Trump. Here, the 18-20 age segment recorded only a 50 percent support factor for Harris. The male chart then continues upward until reaching an apex of 70 percent Harris support within the 74-75 year olds before tapering off a few points as the male People of Color voter segment moves into the 80s.

The female People of Color segments, across the board, are Harris’ strongest supporters with little variance. From the youngest to oldest voter segments, the female POC category performed between 72 and 80 percent favorable for Harris.

As we can see, the Trump campaign opened the conversion door for these traditionally Democratic racial and age voter population segments. It is now up to the GOP strategists to see if they can cement these types of numbers for future Republican candidates.