Tag Archives: Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp

President or Senator?

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 11, 2025

Governor

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R)

A sitting Governor and a recently retired ex-state chief executive have key political decisions to make soon.

Both Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) and former Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) are reportedly weighing running for the Senate in 2026 and/or organizing a 2028 presidential campaign. Each says he is not yet ready to announce any future political plans.

A third Governor, Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer (D), is in a similar position but she is more definitive about running for President in 2028, so it is highly doubtful that she will enter her state’s open 2026 Senate race.

Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D)

The two men are under intense pressure from party leaders to run for the Senate next year. Polling shows both Gov. Kemp, term-limited in 2026, and ex-Gov. Cooper, who was ineligible to seek a third term in 2024 because of North Carolina’s term limit law, leading their respective incumbent Senator of the opposite party, Jon Ossoff (D-GA) and Thom Tillis (R-NC).

The latest Georgia poll (WPA Intelligence; Jan. 14-15; 500 likely Georgia voters; live interview) projects Gov. Kemp topping Sen. Ossoff, 46-40 percent, while the other tested potential challengers, i.e., Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), and Mike Collins (R-Jackson), all trail.

A new Public Policy Polling survey of North Carolina general election voters (March 4-5; 662 registered North Carolina voters) sees two-term Sen. Thom Tillis (R) beginning his re-election effort four points behind Cooper, 47-43 percent.

While it is typical to see a Republican trailing in a North Carolina poll – there is usually a two-point under-poll factor for GOP candidates in the state – a poor Tillis job approval ratio of 25:46 percent favorable to unfavorable according to the PPP data should be of obvious concern. Some of the disapproval is coming from Republican voters, however, who don’t believe Sen. Tillis has been sufficiently loyal to President Donald Trump.

Gov. Kemp says he understands the need to make a decision in the near future but will not do so until the Georgia state legislative session adjourns shortly after the beginning of next month. Kemp is also chairman of the Republican Governors’ Association, which he says significantly adds to his time commitments for the 2026 election cycle.

For his part, Cooper says he will make a decision about running for the Senate “in the next couple of months.”

For North Carolina’s Cooper, running for President may be an easier decision than for Gov. Kemp. In what will be an open 2028 presidential campaign for both parties, the Democratic field will be in free-for-all status because they do not have an incumbent Vice President. With the paucity of Democratic elected officials coming from the south, Cooper could reasonably build a southern strategy in the Democratic primaries that would make him a major factor with a large number of committed delegates.

For Gov. Kemp, the presidential road to the Republican nomination would be rockier since incumbent VP J.D. Vance should have the inside track to the 2028 party nomination. While sitting Vice Presidents have often not fared well in general elections, they have been near perfect in securing party nominations. With Vance already knowing the 2028 presidential campaign will be open, he would begin such a campaign with a major advantage.

At this point, however, since we usually don’t see recent Governors running for Senate because they often find the transition from an executive to being one of 100 in a legislative body difficult, it would not be shocking to see both men decline the Senate opportunity.

If so, the Georgia Republicans are ready with a political bench. Already the aforementioned three Representatives: Carter, McCormick, and Collins, are waiting in the wings to run for the Senate, and there are seven additional GOP statewide officers each with a winning electoral record.

In North Carolina, the Democrats have five sitting statewide officials, although two are unlikely to run for the Senate. Gov. Josh Stein (D) was just elected in November and probably would not give up his current position so quickly to run for the Senate.

Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, who was elected in 1996 when defeating NASCAR champion Richard Petty (R) and will turn 80 years old shortly after the November 2026 election, is another who will not run for the Senate.

The other office holders, including Lt. Gov. Rachel Hunt, the daughter of former Gov. Jim Hunt and an ex-Charlotte area state Senator, could become Senate candidates. The other statewide Democratic officials who were elected in 2024 and would have a 2026 free ride, are Attorney General and former Congressman Jeff Jackson and Superintendent of Public Instruction Mo Green.

In the US House delegation, Reps. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill/Rocky Mount), Deborah Ross (D-Raleigh), and Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough/Chapel Hill) could conceivably enter a US Senate race. Therefore, even without MCooper, the Democrats will have credible options with whom to challenge Sen. Tillis.

Regardless of who challenges the incumbent Senators in Georgia and North Carolina, both states will be on the 2026 political front burner.

Recruiting Governors for the Senate

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 26, 2024

Governor

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R)

Over the weekend, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R), who now serves as chairman of the Republican Governors Association, was again asked in an interview if he will challenge first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) next year. As has been his practice, the Governor’s response was non-committal.

Looking at the national Senate picture for the 2026 election cycle, we see many sitting or recently term-limited Governors in a similar position to that of Gov. Kemp. In fact, there are a total of seven term-limited state chief executives who could challenge a Senator of the opposite party next year. Presidential aspirations could also play a significant role in determining which Governors might run for the Senate versus those who would want to concentrate on entering what will be an open 2028 presidential race for both parties.

In addition to Gov. Kemp, the four Governors attracting the most Senate attention are also the most prominent ones said to be weighing their national prospects.

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), whose term ends at the beginning of 2026, is in position to challenge Sen. Mark Warner (D). Gov. Youngkin was discussed as a possible Vice Presidential candidate and appears to have the desire to run for President. What he may decide is unclear right now. For the Senate, though he is the best possible candidate for the GOP, Gov. Youngkin would still be at least a slight underdog to Sen. Warner.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) won’t leave office until the beginning of 2028, but he would be the best Democratic candidate to enter the now open 2026 Senate race. He has previously said he wouldn’t run for the Senate but has not ruled out running for President. Still, he will be under strong pressure from national Democrats to run for the Senate since he is realistically the only Kentuckian who may be able to deny the Republicans from hanging on to retiring Mitch McConnell’s seat.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) is standing for a third term in North Carolina, a state that always features close races, and the 2026 campaign appears as no exception to that electoral pattern. Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) was term-limited in 2024 and has been actively looking at both a Senate and presidential run. Like Gov. Youngkin, Gov. Cooper was also considered as a Vice Presidential running mate.

Cooper, of the four Governors with presidential hopes, appears most open to launching a Senate bid. He has said several times that he will make a decision “within a few months.”

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) has been commonly associated with a 2028 presidential run. With Sen. Gary Peters (D) retiring, the Michigan Senate race will become one of the hottest 2026 campaigns. Since Sen. Peters has surprisingly left the Senate seat open, party leaders will certainly attempt to persuade Gov. Whitmer to jump into the race.

The party hierarchy’s argument to her should be bolstered since early 2026 Senate campaign polls find Republican former Congressman and close 2024 Senate finisher Mike Rogers leading ex-US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Buttigieg tops a potential Democratic primary by a spread beyond the polling margin of error.

Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D) cannot seek re-election, but she will draw attention from the national Democratic leaders who are desperately looking to find a credible candidate against first-term Sen. Roger Marshall (R). Though Gov. Kelly has not indicated any interest in the Senate race, nor talked about running for President, it will not escape the party strategists that she would make a race against Sen. Marshall very competitive.

Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D), her public rift with President Trump notwithstanding, is also term-limited and could challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R). Gov. Mills would be 79 years old should she try to begin a Senate career by running in 2026. Previously, she has deflected questions about challenging Sen. Collins, but after going to war with President Trump over transgenders in school sports, her desire about entering the federal political ring may be changing.

In 2020, Democratic nominee Sara Gideon spent more than $64 million to try to defeat Sen. Collins — not counting millions more in outside spending — and led in almost all polling; however, she failed to even make the final result close, as Sen. Collins was re-elected with a 50-42 percent victory margin. Though Gov. Mills would be a stronger candidate, upending Sen. Collins still would be a difficult task.

Many 2026 questions remain to be answered, but it is possible that we could see an abnormally high number of seriously challenged Senate races soon unfolding.

Trump Under-Performs in Georgia Poll; Wisconsin Rep. Gallagher Out; UT-2 Special Election Set; Hickingbottom Out – Again

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 13, 2023

President

How fares a generic GOP candidate or former President Donald Trump vs. President Joe Biden?

Georgia Poll: Trump Under-Performs vs. Generic Republican — A political action committee associated with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) — the Hardworking Americans PAC — released a Cygnal poll of the Peach State Republican electorate (June 5-7; 600 likely Georgia general election voters; interactive voice response system & text) and the results find that a generic-labeled Republican candidate performs much better against President Biden than does former President Donald Trump.

The poll showed that when asked if the respondent would favor President Joe Biden or a Republican candidate, the generic GOP candidate would lead by double digits, 48-38 percent. If Trump were the Republican candidate, however, the race resolves into a virtual tie, with the former president scoring 42.0 percent and Biden attracting 41.4 percent support. Arguably, Georgia is the most important bellwether state on the 2024 presidential map. Considering the swing states in play, a Republican candidate cannot win the presidency in 2024 without taking Georgia.

Senate

Wisconsin: Rep. Gallagher Out — Wisconsin Congressman Mike Gallagher (R-Green Bay), who appeared to be the Republican leadership’s top Senate candidate recruitment target, said on Friday that he will not challenge Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) next year. Gallagher is moving up the House ladder and wants to remain on that path. Some believe he will instead wait until 2028 to make a statewide move when Sen. Ron Johnson (R) is expected to retire.

A new poll found former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke leading the Republican field, though he is not an announced candidate. Rep. Gallagher was a strong second. Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) is testing the Senate political waters, so chances of him pursuing a statewide bid considering the Gallagher decision may increase.

House

UT-2: Special Election Set — Gov. Spencer Cox (R) set the special primary election to replace resigning US Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington) for Sept. 5 and the special general on Nov. 21; the candidate filing period closes on Wednesday. Therefore, individuals have little time to declare their candidacies.

For the Republicans, who will be favored to hold the seat, former state House Speaker Greg Hughes, ex-state representative and US Senate candidate Becky Edwards, and former Republican National Committeeman Bruce Hough have announced they will run, and at this point comprise the first tier. Several others are expected to run also. For the Democrats, the lone pre-filing contender is state Sen. Kathleen Riebe (D-Cottonwood Heights).

After filing closes, the parties will call a special district convention. The delegates will then nominate one candidate to advance into the special primary by majority vote. Others can still qualify for the primary through the petition signature process.

Governor

Mississippi: Hickingbottom Out Again — Earlier in the year, the Mississippi Democratic Party disqualified candidate Bob Hickingbottom from running for governor in the Democratic primary, saying he did not meet the signature requirement and because he previously ran statewide on a third party line. In late May, Hickingbottom won his court challenge to the Democrats’ ruling and was placed back on the primary ballot.

On Friday, however, the Mississippi state Supreme Court overturned the lower court decision and ruled that the MDP has the right to disqualify Hickingbottom. Therefore, Hickingbottom will be prohibited from running in the Democratic primary. The decision restores Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley to unopposed status for the party nomination. Democratic leaders wanted this to give Presley the biggest advantage possible as he tries to unseat Gov. Tate Reeves (R) in the 2023 general election.