Sununu Would Top Shaheen

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 5, 2025

Senate

A newly released statewide poll suggests that former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) would defeat Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D). This conclusion derives from a hypothetical 2026 US Senate survey that a Granite State media outlet sponsored. The poll also uncovered a Shaheen negative of which there is little she can do to reverse.

The political study, commissioned through the NH Journal online news site (conducted by Praecones Analytica; Feb. 26-March 1; 626 registered New Hampshire voters; online), finds Sununu topping Sen. Shaheen 54.4 – 45.6 percent. Obviously, respondents were pushed for an answer since the ballot test result reveals no undecided or won’t respond replies.

Whether such a race materializes must be considered unlikely. Sununu, while Governor, had been asked repeatedly about his interest in forging a Senate race, particularly against Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) in the 2022 election cycle, to which he consistently expressed little desire in becoming a Senator. This, even when he might have become the majority-deciding 51st Republican vote, which at the time, looked to be the number Republicans could realistically obtain.

Perhaps of more concern to Sen. Hassan than a potential pairing with Sununu, however, is the question relating to her age. Asked: “If re-elected, she would be 85 years old at the end of her term in office. How concerned are you that age would impact Sen. Shaheen’s ability to effectively serve New Hampshire?”

Over 60 percent of the New Hampshire respondents voiced trepidation. A total of 25.8 percent said they would be “extremely concerned,” while an additional 34.6 percent (a combined total of 60.4 percent) replied that they would be “somewhat concerned.” The situation surrounding former President Joe Biden’s last year in office spotlighted the issue of personal ability when reaching an advanced age according to the poll analysis.

The poll news, however, is not all bad for Sen. Shaheen. If paired in 2026 with former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R), whom she defeated in 2020, Sen. Shaheen would lead 55.1 – 44.9 percent. If Commissioner of Education Frank Edelblut were her Republican opponent, Sen. Shaheen would post a 58.9 – 41.1 percent advantage.

Sen. Shaheen has yet to say whether she will seek a fourth US Senate term, she has only said that she will make a decision about running again in the next few months.

Her votes relating to the Trump cabinet member confirmations suggest that the Senator may be leaning toward running, since she was one of the more bipartisan members in terms of supporting the Republican appointees. In fact, she backed nine of the nominees, the most of any Democratic Senator, along with Sens. John Fetterman (D-PA) and Ruben Gallego (D-AZ).

The Shaheen situation concerns the Democratic leadership. Even though the party has the advantage on the overall 2026 Senate election map because the Democrats must defend only 13 seats as compared to the Republicans’ 22, the early developments have not gone their way.

With Sens. Gary Peters (D-MI) and Tina Smith (D-MN) announcing surprise retirement decisions, the Democrats must now add two more competitive open seats to their priority list. Should Sen. Shaheen retire or face former Gov. Sununu, even more resources that could be used to attack Republican-held positions would instead be diverted into increased defensive spending.

With Sens. Peters and Smith already deciding to depart, great attention will be paid to Sen. Shaheen’s upcoming decision. Depending upon how her situation unfolds, it is possible that New Hampshire could become another key 2026 battleground state.