Category Archives: Polling

NY-16: Poll Finds Rep. Engel Trailing

Jamaal Bowman campaign-financed attack ad example against veteran Rep. Eliot Engel, hitting him for remaining in Maryland during the rise in COVID-19 cases and then only returning to the district when his political position became endangered


By Jim Ellis

June 19, 2020 — An internal poll for New York Congressional District 16 challenger Jamaal Bowman suggests we could see an upset in next Tuesday’s Democratic primary.

As the race between Bowman, a former middle school principal, and veteran Rep. Eliot Engel (D-Bronx) becomes more contentious and competitive, the challenger’s campaign this week publicized the results of their recent Data for Progress survey (released June 17; 525 NY-16 likely Democratic primary voters). The poll projects Bowman as establishing a clear lead over Rep. Engel, who was first elected to the House in 1988 after spending the previous 12 years in the New York state Assembly.

The DfP data shows Bowman holding a 41-31 percent lead over Congressman Engel in the closing days of the Democratic primary. When asked of the 27 percent who responded that they were still undecided, 40 percent of those individuals indicated they were leaning toward Bowman as compared to just 18 percent who said the same of Rep. Engel. Adding leaners to the secondary ballot test produces a substantial 52-36 percent advantage for Bowman.

The Engel campaign questions the accuracy of the Data for Progress survey because the questionnaire only gave respondents the choice of Bowman and Rep. Engel, even though two other candidates are also on the primary ballot.

Looking deeper at the data, Bowman leads Rep. Engel 56-10 percent among African Americans and 37-29 percent among Hispanics. Rep. Engel maintains an advantage with white voters, 52-30 percent. The district’s Citizen Voting Age population segments as 43.1 percent white, 31.2 percent black, and 20.0 percent Hispanic.

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The Senate Barometer

Sen. Cory Gardner Senate campaign attack ads hitting former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper hard (see COLORADO writeup below)


By Jim Ellis

June 18, 2020 — Next to discussion of the presidential race, the political contests attracting the most political attention and debate are the 2020 US Senate campaigns.

As we know, Republicans have a 53-47 Senate majority, meaning the Democrats will have to convert a net three GOP seats if Joe Biden wins the presidency, or four if President Trump is re-elected. Many believe that the winning presidential candidate will also sweep in a Senate majority for his party.

Below is an update of the key races:


• ALABAMA: In many ways, this could be the most important race on the board. Republicans must convert this seat back to their column in order to provide a greater cushion toward protecting their chamber majority. Sen. Doug Jones (D), who scored a fluke special election win in 2017, stands for a full six-year term in November.

Republicans are in a runoff election that will be decided on July 14, postponed from the original March 31 date. In the March 3 primary, retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville placed first over former attorney general and ex-Alabama senator Jeff Sessions within a field of seven total candidates, 33-32 percent.

Runoff polling, however, gives Tuberville a large lead as the contenders enter the last month of the secondary election campaign. The May 26-27 OnMessage survey gave Tuberville a 49-43 percent edge, down considerably, however, from the 55-32% margin the former coach posted in a Cygnal research group poll conducted over the May 7-10 period.

Tuberville, with President Trump’s endorsement and running an ad saying Sessions’ appointment as AG is the president’s top regret since taking office, clearly has the advantage. In the general election, this race is a must-win for the GOP. If converted, the Republican majority expands to 54, which will be critical for their chances to hold.


• ARIZONA: Things continue to break retired astronaut Mark Kelly’s (D) way in the early going opposite appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R). Being one of the top national fundraisers with $31 million raised and millions more coming into the state in the form in independent expenditures, Kelly is the favorite to convert the seat in November. He has led in the last 11 publicly released polls, the latest coming from the Civiqs organization, polling for the Daily Kos Elections website (June 13-15), which posts Kelly to a 51-42 percent advantage.


• COLORADO: Sen. Cory Gardner (R) seeks a second term, and with the state’s electorate moving decidedly to the left since the incumbent’s original election in 2014, the Colorado race sets up well for Democratic conversion.

There is some weakness developing, however, surrounding Sen. Gardner’s likely Democratic opponent, former governor and presidential candidate John Hickenlooper. Recently, the Colorado Ethics Commission ruled that Hickenlooper, while governor, twice violated the state’s gift ban, which has caused him negative statewide publicity.

Now, the National Republican Senatorial Committee has launched an ad campaign underscoring the commission finding just as the former governor approaches his June 30 primary election against former state house speaker Andrew Romanoff. Sen. Gardner also is on the air in a new ad highlighting Hickenlooper’s statements during the presidential campaign when he was quoted extensively as saying he didn’t want to be a US senator. Taking this into consideration, more people are looking toward the Democratic primary, in which Romanoff is gaining some momentum. This general election is a must-win for the Democrats.
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Kansas Beginning to Hop

By Jim Ellis

June 1, 2020 — The open Kansas Senate race is more interesting this year than typical for what is normally a safe Republican state; in fact, it is becoming one of the most intriguing races in the country.

Former Kansas secretary of state and 2018 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach

Democrats believe they have a chance of stealing this contest if former Kansas secretary of state and 2018 defeated gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach were to win the GOP nomination. And it appears that early polling numbers and even the Kansas Republican Party chairman agree.

Things started to unravel back in the 2018 Republican gubernatorial primary when Kobach, then the sitting Kansas secretary of state, challenged Gov. Jeff Colyer in the party nominating contest and managed to beat him by 343 votes from more than 317,000 ballots cast. Colyer ascended to the governor’s office when elected incumbent Sam Brownback (R) resigned to accept a federal position.

The outcome split the already badly divided Kansas Republican Party – fragmented between moderates and conservatives – and coupled with a lackluster, while some say non-existent, Kobach general election gubernatorial campaign effort, Democrat Laura Kelly was able to win the statewide contest 48-43 percent with nine percent going to various minor party candidates.

Democrats are hyped because of that outcome, and Republicans clearly nervous. After months of speculation that US secretary of state and former Kansas congressman Mike Pompeo would leave his position and enter the Senate contest, the party leadership is now solidly coalescing around US Rep. Roger Marshall (R-Great Bend). Republican Party chairman Mike Kuckelman last week even publicly called upon all of the candidates beside Rep. Marshall to exit the race in order to give the congressman a one-on-one shot at denying Kobach the party nomination.

Yesterday, state Senate President Susan Wagle (R-Wichita) announced she would end her Senate quest, stating among other reasons that she did not want to split the party. Kuckelman believes that that crowded field would help Kobach win the nomination because he could do so with a plurality vote, fearing that his hard-right base may be enough to win a crowded field race.

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New Mexico’s 2nd: Too Cute By Half?

By Jim Ellis

Freshman Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D-Las Cruces) faces the full-on press of a GOP battle to challenge her.

May 29, 2020fh — The Democrats, or at least those who run the Patriot Majority organization, have made a high-risk move in trying to influence the outcome of the 2nd District Republican primary next week, so we shall soon see if their gamble pays dividends.

The GOP battle to challenge freshman Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D-Las Cruces) is largely between the 2018 nominee who lost what was a Republican seat, former state Rep. Yvette Herrell, and Claire Chase, who chairs the New Mexico Oil & Gas Association. Clearly the Democratic leadership believes Herrell is the weaker candidate, which is why their agents are actively engaged in ironically trying to define her as the true Trump Republican candidate.

President Trump has not endorsed in this race, but him doing so has been magic for candidates receiving such Republican primary support. The Patriot Majority media buy, which approaches $200,000 and appears to concentrate on targeted radio and digital advertising in order to best communicate with conservative audiences, emphasizes that Herrell is the candidate most in lockstep with the president. The ad script also attempts to put Chase on the defensive for making past negative comments about then-presidential candidate Donald Trump.

NM-2 has the potential of becoming one of the top challenge races in the country and is likely a must-win if the Republicans are going to make any serious run at re-taking the House majority. And, recalling that Trump won this district by slightly more than 10 percentage points means the progressive left involvement in the GOP primary to implement a strategy of identifying a particular candidate as the stronger Trump supporter does carry its risks for the general election.

The Patriot Majority super PAC organization was formed during the 2010 election cycle. During the succeeding elections cycles, the entity is reported as spending well over $6 million, the overwhelming percentage of which being used to attack Republican candidates.

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Is Biden Under-Performing?

By Jim Ellis

Former vice president and current 2020 presidential candidate, Joe Biden (D)

May 28, 2020 — Currently, former vice president Joe Biden is leading in virtually every battleground state poll that has been released into the public domain; but do the survey numbers tell the whole story? Other available data, that derived from actual votes being cast, suggest there may be cracks forming in his political armor.

In terms of battleground states, a new Arizona poll was released Tuesday, in what could become the most important must-win domain for the Trump campaign. There, the Phoenix-based HighGround Public Affairs consulting firm publicized their latest Arizona statewide poll (May 18-22; 400 likely Arizona general election voters), and the ballot test projects Biden holding a tighter 47.0 – 45.3 percent edge over President Trump.

Though Biden leads, the trend is a clear improvement for Trump since the OH Predictive Insights poll (May 9-11; 600 likely Arizona voters) became public during mid-May and posted the former vice president to a 50-43 percent advantage. Redfield & Wilton Strategies followed with their survey release (May 10-14; 946 likely Arizona voters) that yielded a closer 45-41 percent Biden lead.

Tuesday’s HighGround survey also published some interesting secondary questions. In answering whether the respondents felt President Trump job performance was excellent, very good, or OK, the combined positive calculated to 49.5 percent. Among those believing the president’s job performance is poor or failing, the negative totaled to 49.0 percent.

Accordingly, 29.3 percent of the Arizona respondent sample believes President Trump is to blame for the spread of the coronavirus, while 20.3 percent pin the responsibility on China. All other responses: the people, federal government, Democrats, or other unnamed sources each registered less than 10 percentage points. A total of 25.3 percent say they either don’t know or believe no single source is to blame.

Over the Memorial Day weekend, the state of Hawaii hosted its Democratic presidential primary. The unique format is interesting in that there were two votes the participants cast: the first included choosing among all of the names who originally qualified for the Hawaii presidential nomination ballot. The second isolated only Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). Just under 35,000 people cast mail votes in the stand-alone presidential primary.

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