Author Archives: Jim Ellis

Outstanding Senate & House Races

By Jim Ellis

Nov. 5, 2020 — Two Senate races were called yesterday, one for Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), who scored a 51-42 percent victory over state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D-Freeport). Gideon conceded the race yesterday even though the count had not ended. In Michigan, Sen. Gary Peters (D) was projected as the winner with a very close (49.6 – 48.5 percent) count over GOP challenger John James.

The two calls mean that the high number for the Senate Republican majority is 52, with the Democratic maximum being 51. The most likely outcome from the current trends and potentially projecting the runoff election under what may be a Biden victory at the presidential level is either a Republican majority of 51 or 52 seats.

In the House, 40 races remain uncalled, yet many of them are now reporting 100 percent of the vote being received. Of the 40, the Republicans lead in 25 and the Democrats 15. This would translate in a Republican net gain in the House of most likely between five and nine seats.

Below is a chart of the races that remain uncalled and which candidate is currently leading:

Senate

STATE LEADING CANDIDAGE RACE STATUS % REPORTING
Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan 62.3% 50
Georgia-A Sen. David Perdue (R), must reach 50% 50.2% 97
Georgia-B Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) 32.5% 96
Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) 26.2% Runoff
Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R) 51.1% Winner
Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D) 49.6% Winner
N. Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis (R) 48.7% 93

House

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Election Day Results & Analysis

By Jim Ellis

Nov. 4, 2020 — Last night’s national election, as predicted, is now it in political overtime.

The presidential race won’t be decided for more than a day, and possibly not until all ballots are received and counted in Pennsylvania, which as of this writing could drift into Friday. The state’s post-election ballot reception deadline, is Nov. 6, at 5:00 pm.

It appears that former vice president Joe Biden (D) has the inside track to unseat the president, but Trump still has a narrow path to victory.

It is likely that the Republicans have held the Senate majority despite what appears to be a close loss at the top of the ticket. Defending 13 of the most vulnerable 16 Senate seats, the GOP may break even. Converting Alabama and leading in Michigan offsets the loss of seats in Arizona and Colorado. Four races remain undecided.

Republicans had a much better night in the House than expected. With 43 races still uncalled, a reasonable projection suggests the Democrats will return to the House with a majority margin approximately seven seats less than in the current Congress. This would make the new majority 226D-209R, and certainly put House control front and center for the 2022 election cycle.

In the 11 governor’s races, we saw one state flip from Democrat to Republican, the open Montana race that completed a Republican sweep of the top four statewide offices. At-Large Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) was elected the state’s new governor, replacing term-limited Gov. Steve Bullock (D) who lost the Senate race to incumbent Steve Daines (R).

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A Full Congressional Race Recap

By Jim Ellis

Nov. 3, 2020 — Below is a rundown on the key campaigns today and which seats may flip. The Senate races are close with both parties having a chance to claim the majority. The House looks to stay under Democratic control with the main question being whether they expand their majority or Republicans can diminish the majority’s 17-seat margin. Here’s how things line up today:


SENATE

Potential Democrat to Republican Flips:

• Alabama – Tommy Tuberville positioned to win
• Michigan• John James close in some polls; outside chance for upset
• Minnesota• Jason Lewis with long-shot chance to defeat Sen. Tina Smith


Potential Republican to Democrat Flips:

• Arizona – Though closing, Martha McSally will likely come up short against Mark Kelly
• Colorado – Sen. Gardner appears headed for a loss
• Georgia-A – Sen. Perdue polling is slipping; could lose or be forced to a runoff
• Maine – Sen. Collins rebounded but Ranked Choice Voting could defeat her if race leader is under 50 percent


Toss-Up to Leaning Republican

• Alaska – Sen. Sullivan sees polling now going his way; typical Alaska pattern
• Georgia-B – Rev. Warnock finishes first but forced to run-off; tight between Sen. Loeffler and Rep. Collins for second position; runoff is Jan 5
• Iowa – Sen. Ernst’s numbers improving; small lead; momentum is her way
• Kansas – Rep. Marshall should prevail, but margin may be small
• Kentucky – Sen. McConnell wins
• Montana – Sen. Daines with slight advantage; R turnout model should help save him
• North Carolina – Tight, but Sen. Tillis has the momentum; Cunningham hurt by scandal; GOP early vote numbers better than 2016
• South Carolina – Sen. Graham looks to score close win despite massive spending against him
• Texas – Sen. Cornyn clear favorite, but win percentage may be down; early vote a plus for GOP


HOUSE

• Alabama – no change in delegation
• Alaska – Rep. Young up in polling late; should prevail
• Arizona – Rep. O’Halleran wins Rep. Schweikert in clear danger of losing
• Arkansas – no change in delegation
• California – Reps. LaMalfa and McClintock have competitive opponents but should win
            – Assemblyman Jay Obernolte holds open 8th CD for Republicans
            – Ex-Rep. Valadao in strong position to re-claim the seat he lost in 2018.
            – Rep. Cisneros wins another close race against GOPer Young Kim Rep. Rouda prevails against Supervisor Michelle Steel (R)
            – Former Rep. Darrell Issa returns winning District 50
            – Ex-State Dept official Sara Jacobs wins double-Dem general in CA-53
• Colorado – Lauren Boebert in close general after ousting Rep. Tipton in R primary; 2nd Amendment key issue and might be difference in her winning
• Connecticut – no change in delegation
• Delaware – no change in delegation
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The Final Polls

By Jim Ellis

Nov. 2, 2020 — Tomorrow is the official Election Day, but with early voting delivering nearly 87 million votes and 21 states allowing ballots to come in after Nov. 3, it is likely that many Senate and House races will languish in political overtime. With that background, we look at the polling range of the most recent surveys in battleground Senate races along with the number of people who have already cast their ballots in each state (early voting statistics from TargetSmart.com):


ALABAMA:
• Sen. Doug Jones (D) vs. Tommy Tuberville (R)
Polling Range
High: Cygnal (Oct. 26-28) – Tuberville +14
Low: Auburn U Montgomery (Oct. 23-28) – Tuberville +11
No Early Voting


ALASKA:
• Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) vs. Dr. Al Gross (I/D)
Polling Range
High: Gravis Marketing (Oct. 21-23) – Sullivan +3
Low: Change Research (Oct. 16-19) – Sullivan +3

Early Voting Stats:
Republican: 49.1% Total Early Voting 2020: 131,261
Democrat: 33.0% Total Early Voting 2016: 64,583
Unaffiliated: 17.9% Percent Increase: 103%

ARIZONA:
• Sen. Martha McSally (R) vs. Mark Kelly (D)
Polling Range
High: Siena College/NYT (Oct. 26-30) – Kelly +7
Low: Emerson College (Oct. 29-31) – Kelly +3

Early Voting Stats:
Republican: 47.0% Total Early Voting 2020: 2,376,706
Democrat: 46.4% Total Early Voting 2016: 1,658,410
Unaffiliated: 6.6% Percent Increase: 43%

COLORADO:
Sen. Cory Gardner (R) vs. Ex-Gov. John Hickenlooper (D)
Polling Range
High: RMG Research (Oct. 9-15) – Hickenlooper +9
Low: Morning Consult (Oct. 11-20) – Hickenlooper +8

Early Voting Stats:
Democrat: 47.0% Total Early Voting 2020: 2,376,706
Republican: 42.7% Total Early Voting 2016: 1,658,410
Unaffiliated: 9.6% Percent Increase: 39%

GEORGIA-A:
• Sen. David Perdue (R) vs. Jon Ossoff (D)
Polling Range
High: Public Policy Polling (Oct. 27-28) – Ossoff +3
Low: Landmark Communications (Oct. 28) – Even


GEORGIA-B: Jungle Primary
• (Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) vs. Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) and Rep. Doug Collins (R)
High: Public Policy Polling (Oct. 27-28) – Warnock +19
                                                             – Loeffler + 8
                                                               (over Collins)
Low: Emerson College (Oct. 29-31) – Warnock +11
                                                        – Collins +3
                                                          (over Loeffler)

Early Voting Stats:
Republican: 49.8% Total Early Voting 2020: 3,812,140
Democrat: 42.9% Total Early Voting 2016: 2,385,990
Unaffiliated: 7.3% Percent Increase: 60%

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Voter Registration & Turnout
Numbers In Key Battleground States

By Jim Ellis

Nov. 2, 2020 — Examining the burgeoning early voting numbers and looking at which party has gained an advantage in voter registration in key battleground states, we see that patterns are beginning to form.

Determining partisan preference in a pre-election context tends to be state specific. In 19 of the 50 states voters do not even register by party. Today, we winnow the number of states to a specific group in order to study battleground party registration and early voting performance as compared to the previous presidential election (2016).

The states that meet the aforementioned parameters are Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.

First, voter registration. Each of the two major parties has the voter registration momentum in three of the chosen six states. This could mean an increase in the partisan vote at the polls. Democrats outpaced Republican registration in both Arizona and Iowa, posting a net edge of just under 18,000 more new party members in the Grand Canyon State, which is yet another clue that Arizona is changing politically, and Iowa, where Democrats notched a 20,000 person advantage on new voter registration.

Additionally, the Democrats further increased their advantage in Maine, to post a 37,000-plus registrant advantage in the Pine Tree State. This clearly could make a difference in the tight Senate race between veteran incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R) and state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D-Freeport).

Republicans, on the other hand, didn’t overtake the Democrats in North Carolina or Pennsylvania, but they have lessened their registration deficit, which could be equally important in terms of winning major elections such as the North Carolina Senate race, and helping President Trump prevail in all-important Pennsylvania.

With North Carolina Republicans gaining over 128,000-plus new registrants in the state and Democrats surprisingly losing more than 117,000 party members, many of the latter are presumed to be joining one of the left-of-center minor parties or, more likely, becoming an unaffiliated voter. The partisan registration ups and downs mean the Republicans gained a 246,000-person net advantage in the Tar Heel State.

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