Tag Archives: Tom Barrett

Poll Confirms Tight Pennsylvania Senate Race; A GOP Lead in Swing Congressional District; Tight Race in Montana; Final Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 11, 2024

Senate

Sen. Bob Casey Jr. / Photo: FoxNews.com

Pennsylvania: Confirming Poll — Last week, we reported on a CNN poll (part of a six-state polling series; Aug. 23-29; 789 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview & online) that found Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) and businessman David McCormick (R) tied (46-46 percent) for the first time in this year’s Keystone State Senate race. Since July 4, Sen. Casey averaged a seven-point spread over the course of 14 publicly released surveys.

In a survey report released on Saturday, The Trafalgar Group (Aug. 28-30; 1,082 likely Pennsylvania voters; multiple sampling techniques) basically verified CNN’s tight projection. According to the Trafalgar numbers, Casey tops McCormick by only one point, 46-45 percent, which is almost identical to the previous polling result.

Another survey conducted in a similar time frame, from Emerson College (Aug. 25-28; 950 likely Pennsylvania voters; multiple sampling techniques) projected the senator’s lead to be a bit stronger at four points, 48-44 percent, but still within the same realm as the others. Despite Sen. Casey’s strong 2:1 spending advantage, it appears this race is becoming highly competitive as we move deeper into political prime time.

House

MI-7: Poll Shows GOP Lead in Swing CD: — With Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) now running for the Senate, it leaves a politically marginal 7th Congressional District in the toss-up open seat category. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+4, but the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians see a much closer and reversed partisan lean, 49.3D – 47.9R.

The Cygnal research organization released an MI-7 survey (Aug. 27-29; 420 likely MI-7 voters; live interview & text) that finds Republican former state senator and 2022 congressional nominee Tom Barrett leading Democratic former state senator and ex-gubernatorial chief of staff Curtis Hertel by a 48-43 percent count. Hertel, however, had a 3:1 cash-on-hand advantage at the end of June, so he apparently has the wherewithal to neutralize the polling difference.

MT-1: New Poll Shows Even Tighter Race — Democratic congressional candidate Monica Tranel has responded to last week’s release of the Fabrizio Ward (R)/David Binder Research (D) poll for AARP (Aug. 25-29; 310 likely MI-1 voters; live interview & text). The Fabrizio/Binder data found Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) leading Tranel 49-43 percent, but the challenger’s own internal poll arrives at a different result.

The Tranel campaign’s Impact Research survey was in the field during the same time as the AARP poll (Aug. 26-29; 500 likely MI-1 voters; multiple sampling techniques) but finds a slightly closer ballot test result, 46-44 percent, in the congressman’s favor. Both polls are in the same realm, which suggests the race is closer than it should be for a Montana Republican incumbent. According to Impact Research, Rep. Zinke’s favorability index is an upside-down 41:51 percent positive to negative.

Rep. Zinke defeated Tranel 50-46 percent in 2022. In 2020, then-President Donald Trump scored a 52-45 percent victory in the precincts that currently comprise the 1st District. While Rep. Zinke must be viewed as the favorite in this district during a presidential election year, the signs are again clear that he is headed for another under-performing election.

Primary Results

Delaware: Mayer Wins Gov Primary — New Castle County Executive Mike Meyer easily defeated Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long by just over 10 percentage points in last night’s Delaware Democratic gubernatorial primary. Hall-Long was saddled with campaign finance issues after failing to report funds paid directly to her husband. Mayer will now become the prohibitive favorite to defeat the new Republican nominee, state House Minority Leader Mike Ramone (R-Newark) who claimed the GOP nomination with 72 percent of the vote.

In the Senate race, Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington) and businessman Eric Hansen (R) advance to the general election. Rep. Blunt Rochester is the prohibitive favorite to win in November.

In the open House race, state Sen. Sarah McBride (D-Wilmington) convincingly won the Democratic primary with 80 percent of the vote, and becomes the heavy favorite to win the at-large seat in November against the new Republican nominee, retired businessman John Whalen.

New Hampshire: Primary Launches Competitive General Election Campaigns — The open governor’s race ended as expected, and former Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) and ex-Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D) will battle in November to replace retiring Gov. Chris Sununu (R). This will be a highly competitive general election.

In the 1st Congressional District, former Executive Councilor and ex-state Sen. Russell Prescott defeated businessman Hollie Noveletsky and Manchester City Alderman Joseph Levasseur in a close vote. Prescott now advances to challenge three-term Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) who was a big winner on the Democratic side. The 1st District has a penchant for defeating incumbents but has stabilized since Pappas was originally elected in 2018.

In the open 2nd District with Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) retiring, competitive primaries in both parties yielded former Biden Administration official Maggie Goodlander defeating previous Executive Councilor and 2016 gubernatorial nominee Colin Van Ostern to win the Democratic nomination after a nasty campaign.

On the Republican side, with 13 candidates, former Libertarian Party state chair Lily Tang Williams won the party nomination and advances to the general election. The 2nd District has proven competitive in the past, but it is already clear that Goodlander will have the inside track toward claiming the seat in November.

Rhode Island: No Opposition — No real opposition was present in this primary. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) and Reps. Gabe Amo (D-Providence) and Seth Magaziner (D-Cranston) all are headed toward easy re-election victories in November.

Sen. Bob Menendez Will Resign;
Q2 Senate Fundraising Report;
GOP Candidates Lead in MI-7, NY-19

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 18, 2024

Senate

New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez (D)

Sen. Bob Menendez: Will Resign — Reports coming from New Jersey indicate that convicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D), answering the calls of the New Jersey political leadership to resign his seat, will do so. Had he not agreed to leave, Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) indicated that he would have introduced a resolution to expel Menendez.

When the senator leaves office, Gov. Phil Murphy (D) indicated he will make a caretaker appointment, meaning an individual that will only serve the balance of the current term. Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) won the Democratic nomination in the June 4 primary and is favored to win the general election in November. He, or whoever wins the general election, will then be sworn in with the new Congress next January.

Senate Fundraising: 2nd Qtr FEC Report — The Daily Kos Elections staff has once again completed their tabulation from the latest Federal Election Commission campaign finance reports, this for the 2nd quarter of the election year.

A total of 66 Senate candidates filed reports and cumulatively the group raised over $172,000,000 in the second quarter of 2024. The cycle-to-date fundraising figure for the aggregate group is just under $772,000,000. The individual campaign mean average figure is $2.6 million raised for the quarter and over $11.6 million for the election cycle. The median average per campaign is $8.5 million cycle-to-date.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) has raised the most for the 2024 campaign, more than $57.3 million, with Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) next with $51.4 million in campaign receipts. The candidate with the most money in their campaign account at the June 30 filing deadline is Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) with $10.8 million cash-on-hand. The non-incumbent who has raised the most cycle-to-date is Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) with $38.8 million raised, but his opponent, former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) out-raised him in the second quarter, $5.4 million to $4.0 million.

House

MI-7: Republican Leads in Swing District — A new Noble Predictive Insights survey of central Michigan voters (July 8-11; 532 likely MI-7 general election voters; live interview & text) finds a rather surprising result on their 7th Congressional District ballot test question. Former state Sen. Tom Barrett (R) lost to Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) in the last election by a 52-46 percent margin but now leads former state Sen. Curtis Hertel (D) by a 48-41 percent spread that is beyond the polling margin of error.

The MI-7 campaign will be one of the most competitive in the nation. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates this seat R+4. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 49.3D – 47.9R partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rate MI-7 as the sixth most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference and is clearly a top Republican conversion target.

NY-19: Rep. Molinaro Holds Definitive Lead: New York Congressman Marc Molinaro’s (R-Red Hook) campaign released the results of their latest Cygnal data organization poll (July 9-11; 420 registered NY-19 voters). According to the survey results, Rep. Molinaro, who defeated Democrat Josh Riley 50-48 percent in 2022, now leads his former and current opponent by a 47-38 percent in a 19th CD that was made slightly more Republican in the latest redistricting draw.

Challenger May Be DQ’d in Indiana; California Rep. Napolitano to Retire; Barrett Returns in Michigan;
Top-Four vs. RCV in Idaho

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 12, 2023

Senate

Indiana: Banks’ GOP Challenger May Be Out — Last week, egg farmer John Rust announced a challenge to Indiana Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) for the open GOP Senate nomination, but his quest might end before it even begins. This week, as the Daily Kos Elections site reports, we find that Rust may not qualify for the ballot because he is not in good standing as a Republican according to Hoosier State election procedure. Because Indiana is a non-party registration state, the GOP candidate qualification requirements include voting in the two most recent Republican primaries, or the approval of the individual’s local GOP county chair.

Rust last voted in the 2016 Republican primary but also participated in the 2012 Democratic primary. Jackson County Republican chair Amanda Lowery is quoted as saying she wants to speak with Rust before making a final determination regarding his qualification status. For his part, Rep. Banks is saying Rust is “a liberal Democrat trying to run in the GOP primary,” and therefore should not be awarded a ballot line.

House

Rep. Grace Napolitano (D-Norwalk)

CA-31: Rep. Grace Napolitano to Retire — Veteran Congresswoman Grace Napolitano (D-Norwalk), who first won her seat in the 1998 election, announced Monday that she will not seek re-election to a 14th term next November. Napolitano, now 86 years old, is the oldest member of the House. She becomes the 14th House member and 10th Democrat to not seek re-election next year, but only the second to outright retire. The remainder are all running for a different office. Napolitano’s retirement decision also creates the fourth open House seat in the California delegation.

In her statement announcing her retirement, the congresswoman endorsed state Sen. Bob Archuleta (D-Norwalk) as her successor. Ironically, Sen. Archuleta, if elected to the House in 2024, would be, at the age of 79, the second-oldest freshman in American history. At a D+29 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization, the seat will not be competitive for a Republican candidate. Chances are high, however, that we would see another double-Democratic general election under California’s all-party top-two jungle primary system. The California qualifying election is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

MI-7: Ex-Sen. Tom Barrett (R) to Return — Former Michigan state Sen. Tom Barrett (R), who was considered at least a slight under-performer in the 2022 election against US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) when losing 52-46 percent, announced he will return next year for another try. Since Rep. Slotkin is running for the state’s open Senate seat, the politically marginal 7th District will also be open. Last week, former state Sen. Curtis Heftel (D) announced his candidacy with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s (D) support. Heftel left the legislature to join Gov. Whitmer’s administration.

Neither man is expected to face much intra-party opposition, but the general election will be hotly contested. MI-7 is one of 20 US House districts where the FiveThirtyEight and Dave’s Redistricting App data organizations disagree over which party has the partisan edge. In this instance, 538 projects the 7th District as having a R+4 rating, while Dave’s App calculates a 49.3D – 47.9R partisan lean.

States

Idaho: Top-Four Primary Initiative Cleared for Signature Gathering — An organized group called Idahoans for Open Primaries has launched an initiative to transform the current Idaho partisan primary system into Alaska’s unique Top Four Primary, which includes a Ranked Choice Voting component for the general election. In the legislative session just concluded, a law was enacted banning Ranked Choice Voting in any Idaho election.

The initiative, if qualified and passed, would repeal the new RCV ban law and institute an all-party open primary where all candidates running for a particular office will compete to finish in the first four positions. All four would then advance into the general election. If no candidate receives majority support, Ranked Choice Voting would be implemented. In Alaska, the system has led to a Democrat winning the at-large congressional seat even though 60 percent of voters chose a Republican candidate in the open all-party primary.

Organizers are now cleared to begin gathering petition signatures. They must secure 63,000 valid Idaho registered voter signatures on or before May 1, 2024. Included in this number must be signatures from at least six percent of residents in 18 of the state’s 35 legislative districts.

Michigan State School Board President Considers Senate Run; Washington Sen. Cantwell Cruising; Ex-Gov. Walker Says No;
House Candidate Announcements

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 23, 2023

Senate

Michigan School Board President Pamela Pugh (D)

Michigan: State School Board President Considers Senate — Michigan School Board President Pamela Pugh (D), who has won two statewide elections to the state school board, a post that features eight-year terms, says she is considering entering the Democratic primary for US Senate.

At this point, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) is unopposed for the party nomination, but Pugh says she is concerned with the lack of African American representation throughout the state. Even the congressional delegation has no black Democrats despite the two Detroit-anchored congressional seats featuring plurality African American populations. The only black in the congressional delegation, freshman Rep. John James, is a Republican.

Washington: Sen. Cantwell (D) Cruising in New Poll — Public Policy Polling, the regular survey research firm for the Northwest Progressive Institute, released their latest Washington statewide study (March 7-8; 874 registered Washington voters; live interview & text) and tested the 2024 Senate race featuring four-term incumbent Maria Cantwell (D). Paired with former Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R), who is reportedly considering the challenge, PPP finds Sen. Cantwell holding a comfortable 50-35 percent advantage.

The 2022 Washington Senate race was billed as a competitive contest between Sen. Patty Murray (D) and Republican Tiffany Smiley, but ended in a 57-43 percent result. Since Republicans have a target-rich Senate cycle in 2024, it is doubtful the party will invest any serious resources toward a Cantwell challenge.

Wisconsin: Ex-Gov. Walker Says No — While Republicans are searching for a candidate to challenge two-term Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) in a race that could become competitive, one prominent Republican closed the door on a candidacy. Former two-term Gov. Scott Walker (R), who twice was elected governor but was defeated for a third term after not faring well in the 2016 presidential race, says he will not run for the Senate next year. The two potential GOP candidates most talked about are Walker’s former lieutenant governor, Rebecca Kleefisch, and businessman Scott Mayer.

House

MI-7: Mayor Won’t Run — Recently, Lansing Mayor Andy Schor (D) launched a congressional exploratory committee since Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) will vacate the 7th Congressional District seat in order to run for the state’s open Senate seat. Typically, filing such a committee is the first step to announcing a candidacy, but in this case the opposite has occurred. Clearly, Mayor Schor did not find the results for which he had hoped, and announced Monday that he would not be a candidate for the 2024 open seat.

No one has yet announced for the 7th District. It is presumed that 2022 Republican candidate Tom Barrett, now a former state senator, will again make a run for the seat. He lost 51-46 percent to Rep. Slotkin last November.

RI-1: Second Special Election Candidate Announces — Though Rhode Island Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence) will not resign from the House until June 1 to accept a position running a large Rhode Island non-profit organization, two Democratic candidates wanting to succeed him in Congress have now announced for the impending special election. Last week, Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos (D) declared her candidacy, and now state Sen. Sandra Cano (D-Pawtucket) has followed suit.

Once Rep. Cicilline officially resigns, Gov. Dan McKee (D) will then schedule a special election to fill the seat for the balance of the current term. The special election will be decided in the Democratic primary in a safe seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+32.

Kelly & Masters in Dead Heat in Ariz, Lake Leads; Walker Leads in Most Georgia Polls, Gov. Kemp Pulls Away

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 7, 2022

Senate

Venture capitalist Blake Masters (R) | Sen. Mark Kelly (D)

Arizona: Sen. Kelly (D) and Republican Masters in Dead Heat — Already, in the closing days of the 2022 election cycle, the Arizona Senate race has been one of the most heavily polled contests. According to the four latest surveys, the closeness of this contest could send the counting process into political overtime.

The four pollsters, Insider Advantage, Remington Research Group, Highmark, and Civiqs, all surveying within the Oct. 29-Nov. 2 period and questioning from 500 to 1,071 likely general election voters through various sampling techniques each independently found almost identical results. That is, Sen. Mark Kelly (D) and venture capitalist Blake Masters (R) are either tied or separated only by just one percentage point. This is a clear indication the race is a pure toss-up heading into Tuesday night.

Georgia: Herschel Walker Now Leading in Most Polls — At the end of this week, we see four pollsters releasing surveys, and three of the four show a break toward Walker. The Remington Research Group (Nov. 1-2; 1,150 likely Georgia general election voters) posts Walker to a 49-45 percent edge over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D). Echelon Insights (Oct. 31-Nov. 2; 500 likely Georgia voters; live interview & text) arrives at exactly the same ballot test result as RRG. The Moore Information Group, polling for the Walker campaign, also came to virtually the same conclusion, 49-44 percent.

But, Survey USA (Oct. 29-Nov. 2; 1,171 GA likely voters; online) and Marist College (Oct. 31-Nov. 2; 1,009 likely Georgia voters; multiple sampling techniques) saw the race differently. S-USA found Sen. Warnock holding a 49-43 percent advantage while Marist found a 48-48 percent tie.

House

MI-7: State Sen. Tom Barrett (R) at Parity with Rep. Slotkin (D) — Mitchell Research, polling as they often do for the MIRS news service (Nov. 2; 402 likely MI-7 general election voters; interactive voice response system) sees the contest between Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Holly) and state Sen. Tom Barrett (R-Lansing) falling into a statistical 48-48 percent tie, with the state legislator leading on the actual count by less than a percentage point. Should Barrett win, it would virtually guarantee that the Democrats will take the loss over Michigan dropping a congressional seat in national reapportionment.

Governor

Arizona: Kelly-Masters Dead Heat Yields Kari Lake (R) Gubernatorial Edge — The aforementioned quartet of pollsters (see Arizona Senate above), Insider Advantage, Remington Research Group, Highmark, and Civiqs, also see Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake leading Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs. Lake’s margin ranges from one to three points. Though her leads are small, they are consistent through 17 recent studies that project her as the leader. Only two pollsters since Oct. 11 find Hobbs holding the ballot test edge, and then only by one percentage point in both instances. Therefore, it is fair to give Lake the edge heading into election day.

Georgia: Gov. Kemp Pulling Away in New Polls — The aforementioned University of Georgia poll for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (see Georgia Senate above) also tested the state’s competitive governor’s race. Here, incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp (R) has led former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D) in polling throughout the election cycle. The UGA poll is consistent with this common finding. Again, running far ahead of Republican Senate nominee Herschel Walker, Gov. Kemp posts a 51-44 percent advantage, well beyond the polling margin of error for such a statewide poll.

Three of the four pollsters that tested the Senate race in the last few days also asked a question about the governor’s campaign. Remington Research, Echelon Insights, and Survey USA all find Kemp leading Abrams by 14, 7, and 7 points, respectively. It also appears clear that Gov. Kemp is headed toward a clear victory once ballot counting officially begins.

Republicans Trying to Bring Down Greitens in MO; Likely OK Runoff; Tight GOP Contest Forecast in MI

By Jim Ellis — June 30, 2022

Senate

Ex-Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens (R)

Missouri: Republicans Trying to Bring Down Greitens — The Politico publication is reporting that a group of Republicans are funding a major new “Show Me Values” super PAC in order to run negative ads against resigned Gov. Eric Greitens (R) before the Aug. 2 US Senate primary. The former governor was forced out of office less than two years after he was elected based upon a sex scandal and legal charges that were later dismissed because of prosecutorial misconduct.

Attempting a return in the 2022 Senate race, Greitens ex-wife is accusing him of domestic abuse in their child custody hearings. Despite all of the negativity surrounding Greitens, the other Republican candidates have been unable to break through, and the former governor continues to maintain small leads in most polls. Fearing that Greitens will lose the general election, the Show Me Values organization is attempting to help another candidate, whether it be Attorney General Eric Schmitt or Reps. Vicky Hartzler (R-Harrisonville) and Billy Long (R-Springfield), to victory in the upcoming GOP primary.

Oklahoma Special: Runoff Likely — According to a new Sooner Poll, a combined effort from the news departments from Oklahoma City and Tulsa Channels 9 and 6, respectively (June 13-21; 350 likely Oklahoma Republican primary voters), finds US Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-Westville) and former state House Speaker T. W. Shannon headed for a Republican runoff after Tuesday’s primary voting. The poll results are consistent with others that have been periodically released since March.

In this Sooner Poll survey, Rep. Mullin commands 39 percent support and Shannon 13 percent. State Sen. Nathan Dahm (R-Broken Arrow) is well back with eight percent, and former Sen. Jim Inhofe chief of staff Luke Holland trails with a five percent preference factor. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two finishers will advance to an Aug. 23 runoff election. The eventual Republican nominee is a lock in the general election and will serve the remaining four years on resigning Sen. Inhofe’s current term.

House

MI-7: Rep. Slotkin in Toss-Up Race — State Sen. Tom Barrett (R-Lansing) released an internal Cygnal campaign poll (June 14-16; 400 MI-7 registered voters; peer-to-peer text) that gives the candidate a 46-44 percent ballot test lead over two-term US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Holly). Michigan’s primaries are scheduled for Aug. 2. In what appears to be worse news for the Democratic incumbent, the generic question yields 50.3 percent of the respondents saying they will vote for a Republican congressional candidate versus just 39.3 percent who plan to support a Democratic contender in the US House campaign. The Biden job approval index is an upside-down 36:62 percent positive to negative. The FiveThirtyEight organization rates the new 7th CD as R+4. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan factor at 49.3 D – 47.9 R.

In 2020, Rep. Slotkin was re-elected to the 8th CD with a 51-47 percent margin. The new 7th District contains just over 38 percent new constituents for the congresswoman. The Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission drew several toss-up congressional districts, similar to the statistics we see from the new 7th CD.

Governor

Michigan: Tight GOP Contest Forecast — Michigan pollster Mitchell Research, conducting a political poll for the Michigan Information & Research Service (June 21-22; 588 likely Michigan Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system & text) finds the Republican primary falling into a dead heat still several weeks away from the Aug. 2 primary election. The field drastically changed when leading candidate James Craig, the former Detroit Police Chief, businessman Perry Johnson, and several others failed to qualify for the ballot because they lacked the required number of legal petition signatures.

Such being the case, the new Mitchell poll finds talk show host Tudor Dixon and businessman Kevin Rinke tied with 15 percent support. Closely following is real estate broker and Trump activist Ryan Kelley at 13 percent, while chiropractor Garrett Soldano posts eight percent preference. Michigan uses a plurality system to determine their party nominees, meaning the person with the most votes wins the single nomination election regardless of percentage attained. The eventual nominee will then challenge Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) in the general election.

A Polling Dichotomy in Wisconsin

By Jim Ellis

Superintendent of public instruction, Tony Evers (D), left, and Gov. Scott Walker (R)

Sept. 15, 2018 — Two succeeding polls were just released with one showing Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) barely leading in his fight for a third term, while another predicts he will be blown out. Yet, the two seemingly contradictory polls both find an almost identical Senate race status.

NBC News/Marist College went into the field during the period of Sept. 30-Oct. 3 (943 Wisconsin adults; 781 registered Wisconsin voters; 571 likely voters) and found Democratic superintendent of public instruction, Tony Evers, leading Gov. Walker by a whopping 53-43 pecent among the likeliest of voters (52-43 percent within the registered voter segment). But, Marquette University Law School, a prolific Wisconsin pollster since the 2012 election cycle, actually finds the governor clinging to a one-point, 47-46 percent edge in their just-released survey (Oct. 3-7; 1,000 registered Wisconsin voters; 799 likely voters).

Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D), left, and state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R-Brookfield)

While the two pollsters are far apart in how they see the governor’s race, they are very consistent in projecting the US Senate contest between first-term incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) and state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R-Brookfield). NBC/Marist gives Sen. Baldwin a 54-40 percent advantage within their likely voters cell, while Marquette finds a similar 53-42 percent spread.

A simple explanation suggests that the governor’s race is quite volatile while the Senate campaign is virtually decided. The two polls were run consecutively with NBC/Marist ending on Oct. 3 and Marquette beginning on that day. Obviously, this means the Marquette data is the most recent.

The Marquette sampling universe looks to be the stronger, as both the registered and likely voter cells are larger than NBC/Marist’s. Additionally, since Marquette exclusively polls the Wisconsin electorate and does so on what appears to be a quarterly basis but more frequently when closer to an election, their knowledge of the voter base is likely superior to NBC/Marist, which is a national pollster. Therefore, the greater local knowledge likely provides them a superior ability to better pull a reflective sample.

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