By Jim Ellis — Thursday, September 3, 2026
Senate
One of the Democratic Party’s 2026 objectives in its bid to regain the Senate majority is to push the maximum number of Republican seats into the competitive realm.
The death of South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham has placed that typically safe GOP seat into competitive mode, as have the credible Democratic candidacies that are emerging in Alaska and Iowa.
Party strategists have also taken the unusual step of persuading three Democratic nominees – in Idaho, Nebraska, and South Dakota – to withdraw in favor of coalition aligned Independents, each a former Democrat or clear liberal ideologue, in hopes of consolidating enough support to tighten those races.
The party leaders’ similar quest fell short in Montana, where Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead declined to step aside for former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar, who is running as an Independent.
The latest state to show signs of competitiveness is Kansas. A new Global Strategy Group survey (Aug. 12-16; 800 likely voters) finds Democrat Adam Hamilton holding a narrow 44-43 percent edge over Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. Kansas polling finding a Democrat within striking distance in September is not unusual, however, and recent history suggests caution in interpreting such numbers.
Certainly, this is not the first time in recent memory where we have seen Kansas polling data putting the Democratic nominee on the same footing as their Republican opponent only to see the GOP prevail by about 10 percentage points on election day.
Sen. Marshall himself faced similar polling volatility in 2020. That September, he led in two polls, trailed in two, and was tied in two more. He ultimately won the open Senate race with a 53-42 percent margin.
The pattern was even more pronounced in 2014, when four term incumbent Pat Roberts (R) appeared to be in serious trouble. This campaign started as a three-way contest among Sen. Roberts, the Democratic nominee, and a strong Independent, Greg Orman, who would eventually narrow the race to a choice between he and the incumbent.
In September of that year, Orman led in six of eight polls and the two were tied in a ninth. Roberts nevertheless prevailed by the same 53-42 percent spread as Marshall would six years later.
Therefore, seeing a Kansas Senate race close in the month of September before a regular election is nothing new. It is important to remember, that regardless of polling reports, the last time a Democrat was elected as a Jayhawk State US Senator came in 1932.
Democrats, however, have fared better in gubernatorial contests, winning seven races since 1932, most recently with current two term Gov. Laura Kelly. Kathleen Sebelius also won two terms in 2002 and 2006. Over that same period, Republicans have elected 13 governors.
Hamilton, a Methodist minister, has run a credible campaign and performed well financially. According to Federal Election Commission pre primary filings through July 15, he raised $4.2 million and reported $1.7 million cash on hand. Sen. Marshall raised $6.2 million over the same period and entered the late summer stretch with nearly $5.4 million in his campaign account. A noticeable uptick in spending from the Senator’s campaign will occur in the coming days and weeks.
It is probable that both the Kansas and South Carolina Senate races will soon show a stronger Republican trend and they will likely exit the competitive board as election day approaches. For now, however, each warrants monitoring in case signs of a long shot upset begin to crystallize.