Tag Archives: Sen. Bernie Sanders

Democrats Up the Debate Ante

By Jim Ellis

May 31, 2019 — The Democratic National Committee just announced the imposition of new requirements for presidential candidates to participate in the series of subsequent debates to begin in mid-September. The first two sessions are scheduled for June 26-27 and July 30-31 in Miami and Detroit, respectively.

The field is close to being set for the initial forums with 20 candidates qualifying according to the Intelligencer publication, the personnel from which have been tracking the debate process since the schedule was first announced.

To earn a podium in the first two debates, the candidates are required to either score one percent support in three of eight designated polls or reach 65,000 donors, of which at least 200 must come from 20 specific states.

The participants will include some of the more obscure candidates including author Marianne Williamson, New York City businessman Andrew Yang, and the two western governors, Jay Inslee of Washington, and Steve Bullock from Montana.

This means that Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO), Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA), former Sen. Mike Gravel (D-AK), and Miramar, Fla., Mayor Wayne Messam likely will not be part of the first forum, though time remains for them to still qualify.

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The 2020 Democratic Nomination
Will Look Much Different From 2016

By Jim Ellis

May 24, 2019 — As the Democratic presidential field swells to 24 candidates — with the first Democratic presidential forum on tap for late June in Miami, and the first votes being cast in Iowa now just over eight full months away — it’s a good time to review how different this presidential nomination contest will be from the 2016 version.

To review, Hillary Clinton won 34 primaries and caucuses in 2016 as compared to 23 for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). There are 57 sanctioned delegate voting entities in the Democratic nomination universe. The 57 are comprised of the 50 states, the District of Columbia and the five territories, and a Democrats Abroad category that combines all US citizens living in foreign countries who will still have voting privileges in US elections.

Clinton won 55.2 percent of the 2016 national Democratic popular vote versus Sen. Sanders’ 43.1 percent when combining the totals from all the primaries and caucuses. Though the Sanders Campaign called foul over the Super Delegate voting inflating Clinton’s delegate total, and actually turning six states’ first-ballot roll call from Sanders to Clinton and sending one more state into a tie, Clinton still carried the pledged, or elected delegate, count 2,205 to 1,846, translating to a 54.4 percent margin. When adding the Super Delegate and uncommitted delegate votes, she captured 58.3 percent of the convention total.

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The Scorecard – Part II

By Jim Ellis

May 21, 2019 — Today we continue with our overview of the 24 Democratic presidential candidates. Yesterday we outlined the first 12, and today we’ll finish up with the remaining candidates (listed alphabetically):

• Ex-Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO): Eschewing a Senate race against first-term Republican incumbent Cory Gardner, Hickenlooper, after leaving the Colorado governor’s office in January, became a presidential candidate in early March. But, his early results have been uninspiring.
Lagging in the polls but getting just enough to qualify for a debate podium, Hickenlooper is attempting to establish himself as a reasonable left-of-center candidate, but the constituent segment responding to such a message may simply be too small to make him viable. Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet’s presence in the race even cuts into Hickenlooper’s geographic support base. It is likely that the former two-term Colorado governor and Denver mayor will continue to languish in the second tier for the duration of his candidacy.

• Gov. Jay Inslee (D-WA): One of the also-ran candidates, Gov. Inslee, one of only two state chief executives in the field, is not a factor for the nomination. In fact, he has previously indicated that he would not rule out running for a third term as Washington’s governor next year if he fares poorly in the early presidential voting. It appears barely registering on key polls will be enough to place him in the presidential forums, but it is unlikely that he will receive enough of a boost from those events to make him a viable candidate.

• Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN): From her announcement event where she spoke at an outside podium in a Minnesota snow storm, Sen. Klobuchar has yet to catch fire in any meaningful way. As the only candidate from the Midwest, Klobuchar has the opportunity of cobbling together a geographic coalition. The Iowa Caucus will be an important event for her to establish a legitimacy foothold. The Hawkeye State presidential electorate usually looks favorably on neighboring candidates, so it will be important for her to use this first-in-the-nation caucus as a way to become a top-tier candidate.

• Mayor Wayne Messam (D-Miramar, Fla.): Though Miramar is larger than Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s South Bend, Indiana, this local mayor has yet to catch fire. Many media publications do not even count him as part of the candidates’ list. Mayor Messam is unlikely to qualify for the candidate forums and faces major obstacles in developing national credibility for this presidential race.
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Weekly Political Synopsis,
Period Ending May 17, 2019

By Jim Ellis

PRESIDENT
• Gov. Steve Bullock: As has been expected for some time, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock (D) officially announced his presidential effort this week, becoming the 23rd Democratic candidate. Bullock made the argument that he will be an effective national candidate because he’s won two elections in a conservative state and has been able to earn legislative achievements, like Medicaid expansion, in negotiating with Republican leaders.

• Mayor Bill de Blasio: Following Gov. Bullock, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio released an announcement video at the end of the week making him the 24th Democratic presidential candidate for the 2020 election cycle. His declaration centered around being the candidate for “working families,” and cited the $15 minimum wage, a free pre-K school program, a comprehensive healthcare program that especially covers mental health, and paid sick leave.

• Florida: Former Vice President Joe Biden continues to see strong polling numbers, with the latest data coming from Florida. The Tel Opinion Research organization is reporting its latest results (released May 8; 800 likely Florida Democratic primary voters) that show Biden pulling away from his Democratic opponents on an open-ended ballot test poll. An open-ended ballot test is one where the respondent is not given the candidates’ names. That approach tests for committed strength.
According to Tel Opinion, Biden leads Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), 39-16 percent, with Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Kamala Harris (D-CA) each pulling only five percent support. South Bend (IN) Mayor Pete Buttigieg follows at three percent preference. All of the candidates scored well on the favorability index scale. Biden is viewed positively with an 81:13 percent ratio, where Sen. Sanders’ score is 68:23 percent.

SENATE
• Arizona: Phoenix-based pollster OH Predictive Insights released their latest data from their May 1-2 poll (600 likely Arizona voters) where they queried the respondent universe about the impending Senate race between appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R) and retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D). Though we are more than a year before Arizona’s 2020 late August primary, the chances are strong that the aforementioned will be their respective party standard bearers.
According to the OH poll results, the early race again earns toss-up status. The sample breaks 45-44 percent in Sen. McSally’s favor, which is virtually identical with the firm’s late February poll giving the incumbent a 46-44 percent edge.

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Dems Looking Ahead to a
Looming Nomination Battle

By Jim Ellis

May 13, 2019 — The Hill newspaper ran a pair of articles late last week that discussed several points about the upcoming Democratic presidential nomination battle. The first piece was a story covering former Vice President Joe Biden’s prediction that many of the candidates will drop out of the race soon after the Iowa Caucus, thus winnowing the 22-person (and possibly as high as 24) contest down to a more manageable number.

What kind of role will super delegates play in 2020?

The second piece delved into the new Super Delegate status, and about their re-emergence if the convention lapses into a multiple ballot situation before choosing a nominee. The story also highlighted several candidates, and in particular Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), who are already reaching out to Super Delegates in an attempt to identify which candidate they might support if presented with the chance to vote.

The Biden comments reflect a traditional view that one candidate may begin to build an early consensus by doing well in the first two voting events, the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire primary. Currently, these are scheduled for Feb. 3 and Feb. 11, 2020, respectively.

The flaw in the Biden argument is that, combined, Iowa and New Hampshire only carry 65 first-ballot delegates, less than two percent of the entire first-ballot universe of 3,768. A candidate must obtain 1,885 delegate votes to win the nomination on the first ballot. Therefore, such a small early number is unlikely to be determinative, but the lowest tier of candidates, as fallout from the first votes actually being cast, collapsing due to a lack of funding is certainly a possibility.

The Super Delegates were a source of major controversy at the 2016 Democratic National Convention. At the time, the Sanders campaign contended that the nomination process was “rigged” because the non-elected Super Delegates were a block for Hillary Clinton, which would enable her to win the nomination even if Sanders forged a majority among the elected delegates. In the end, the Sanders’ supposition proved untrue – Clinton did win among the elected delegates – but, nevertheless, the Democratic National Committee changed the Super Delegates’ voting status as a result of the Sanders’ complaint.

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The Telling Second Choices

By Jim Ellis

May 10, 2019 — Often in political polling, asking respondents about their second choice on a ballot test is quite telling. The Morning Consult firm polls regularly and they are the only prominent pollsters so far in this presidential campaign to consistently ask the second-choice question.

Their latest national survey conducted over the April 29 through May 5 period and involving 15,770 respondents who are registered self-identified Democratic voters, or those who lean to the Democrats, found former Vice President Joe Biden pulling away from the pack of candidates, claiming 40 percent support. In a distant second place is Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) who had 19 percent.

None of the other candidates even reached double-digits. In third position is Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) with a preference figure of just eight percent. Following closely is California Sen. Kamala Harris at seven percent, and South Bend (IN) Mayor Pete Buttigieg who posted six percent support. Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) is next with five percent. All others have three percent or less.

After the initial question, those choosing one of the top five finishers were then asked who they would support if the candidate they originally named was not in the race. This provides a further way of gauging the depth of a candidate’s strength.

The Biden supporters predominantly break toward three candidates with Sen. Sanders being the chief beneficiary, getting 31 percent of the Biden first choice voters. Sen. Harris receives 13 percent, with Sen. Warren getting 10 percent.

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Biden’s Drastically Changed Picture

By Jim Ellis

Former vice president and ex-Delaware senator Joe Biden

May 9, 2019 — Recent polling has seen former Vice President Joe Biden take full advantage of his announcement tour. While the pre-race appeared to be settling into a battle between Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), once the ex-VP became an active candidate the picture drastically changed.

Several polls were taken during the last days of April and into early May. The HarrisX research organization and the Morning Consult firm conducted national surveys while Firehouse Strategies/Optimus commissioned Democratic primary polls in three of the first four nomination venues: Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. All of these polls produced big leads for Biden in contrast to what we were seeing just two weeks ago.

But, Change Research, in a slightly later New Hampshire poll with a larger sample (May 3-5; 864 likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters), finds Sen. Sanders still on top, 30-26-12 percent over Biden and South Bend (IN) Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

The HarrisX national poll (May 3-4; 440 registered voters in the US) gives Biden a whopping 44-14 percent lead over Sen. Sanders with all others following in single-digits. The third-place finisher, Mayor Buttigieg has only eight percent support. Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Kamala Harris (D-CA) have seven percent and six percent, respectively, while former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) has dropped to just three percent, tied with New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker.

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