Tag Archives: Pennsylvania

Helmy to Serve Balance of NJ Sen. Menendez’s Term; Clear Favorite in NH-2; CA-45, PA-10 Races Tight

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 23, 2024

Senate

George Helmy (D) has been appointed by New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy to serve the balance of Sen. Bob Menendez’s current term.

New Jersey: Menendez Drops Campaign — Sen. Bob Menendez (D), who is resigning from the Senate today due to his conviction on federal bribery charges, is also ending his Independent candidacy for re-election. Though he had little chance of winning the November election from the Independent ballot line, he was able to pay legal fees because he was an official candidate. Beginning today, he will no longer be a senator, nor a Senate candidate.

Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) is favored to win the general election and succeed Menendez in the Senate. During the interim, Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is appointing his former chief of staff, George Helmy (D), to serve the balance of the current term.

House

AZ-3: Finally, A Result — In another of the 2024 close primary races in which the counting has dragged on for weeks, former Phoenix City Councilwoman Yassamin Ansari Tuesday was declared the official winner of the open 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary by a 39-vote margin over former state Senate Minority Leader Raquel Teran. Ansari had led since the first count on July 30, but what originally appeared to be a substantial lead dwindled in every subsequent count until the leakage finally stopped with 39 votes to spare. The total turnout was a low 38,135 votes.

AZ-3 is a safe Democratic seat – the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates it a D+44 – so winning the Democratic primary has virtually clinched the general election for Ansari. She will replace Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) who is running for the Senate.

NH-2: Open Democratic District Polling Shows Clear Favorite — St. Anselm’s College’s latest statewide poll (Aug. 13-14; 1,327 registered New Hampshire voters; 320 NH-2 Democratic primary voters; online) finds ex-Biden Administration official Maggie Goodlander leading Executive Councilor and 2016 gubernatorial nominee Colin Van Ostern by a full 10-point margin, 41-31 percent, in the open battle to succeed retiring Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton). Though the general election could be close, the new Democratic nominee will at least have the initial advantage. The late New Hampshire primary is scheduled for Sept. 10.

CA-45: Rep. Steel in Deadlocked Poll — One of the keys to determining the next US House majority is how well the Republicans do in retaining the four Democratic seats their members hold in the Golden State. One of those is the Orange County district of two-term Rep. Michelle Steel. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 45th as D+5, but Rep. Steel was able to secure a 52-48 percent post-redistricting re-election victory in 2022.

While initially favored to claim a third term, a just-released late July Normington Petts survey (for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee; July 29-31; 500 likely CA-45 voters; live interview & text) finds Rep. Steel and Democrat Derek Tran tied at 47 percent apiece. In a heavily Asian district (41.4 percent of the Voting Age Population), Tran has a strong advantage within the large Vietnamese population (62-30 percent) over the Korean-born Republican incumbent. We can expect another close finish in a highly competitive Orange County congressional district.

PA-10: Moving Into Toss-Up Realm — Another battleground US House contest is unfolding in the Harrisburg-York area of Pennsylvania. Though the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+9, a new poll suggests the race between six-term Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg) and former television news anchor Janelle Stelson is already a toss-up.

An Upswing Research survey (polling for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee; July 30-Aug. 2; 600 likely PA-10 voters; live interview & text) finds the challenger leading Rep. Perry with a slight 48-47 percent margin. Typically, this district has polled better for Democrats than it has actually voted, but there is little doubt that the race in this central Pennsylvania CD will be one to watch.

Harris Momentum is Up, However So is the Voter Registration Gap in Battleground States: What It Means

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 16, 2024

Voter Registration

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

While Vice President Kamala Harris is riding a momentum wave in polling that puts her slightly ahead of former President Donald Trump in most places, one element trending against her is the battleground states partisan registration gap.

Voters in only 30 states register by political party designation, and several of them are in the most competitive category. Arizona, Maine, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, all of which are either hotly contested or showing signs of potential swing voting, require partisan registration designations on the voter registration forms. (Maine and Nebraska are included here because they split their electoral votes, meaning allowing each congressional district to carry its own vote. Both states have districts that tend to swing opposite of the statewide tally.)

In some cases, both parties have fewer members in these swing domains than they did in 2020, largely due to the election authorities conducting list purges to eliminate people who no longer live at the stated address, have passed away, or have not voted in a specific number of consecutive elections (state laws differ on the criteria listed last).

All of the aforementioned states have fewer registered Democrats than they did at the beginning of 2021. Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania show a greater number of registered Republicans on their most recent registration report as opposed to where they stood at the beginning of 2021. Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania also have more unaffiliated voters than they did at the beginning of 2021.

The statistic of particular interest comes in the states where the raw number registration gap between Democrats and Republicans has significantly changed. It is here where the Republicans benefit substantially, and this is a statistical category that will not necessarily be reflected in polling.

In Arizona, New Hampshire (which is a new entry in this category), and the 2nd District of Nebraska, Republican registrants outnumber Democrats. With New Hampshire flipping to plurality Republican since 2021, that could signal a different vote pattern in 2024, and that could make a major difference in several races including the presidential campaign.

If Trump were to convert Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire — while assuming he kept all 25 states and the 2nd District of Maine in his column, all of which have voted for him twice — he would win a 272-268 electoral vote victory, and can do so without carrying any of the key Great Lakes states that are typically highlighted as the deciding factor in the national race.

In all of the remaining swing or potentially swing domains: Maine, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, Democrats still outnumber Republicans, but the registration gap between the two parties is much smaller denoting Republican gains in each place.

Most significantly, in three states, Arizona, Nevada, and New Hampshire, the net Republican registration gain is larger than the number of votes that separated Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Therefore, these states become obvious Trump conversion targets.

The Republican registration gap in North Carolina has also improved for the party. Though still behind the Democrats by more than 132,000 registrants, the new numbers represent a net GOP gain of 111,066 individuals than at the beginning of 2021. Therefore, while Trump twice carried the Tar Heel State, his margins were small and the boost in registration should make this critical state a bit safer for his Republican team in 2024.

The state of Florida is the most extreme registration change example and is generally what takes the state out of play not only for Democrats at the presidential level, but also in the US Senate race between incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R) and his most likely opponent, former US Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D).

Since 2021, the registration gap has grown in the Republicans favor by a net 940,005 individuals, which gives the Republicans a registration advantage over the Democrats of just over one million partisan voters.

While polling detects the Harris surge in the presidential race, the Republicans closing the registration gap in all of the battleground states where registered partisanship can be measured should be considered at least one significant neutralizing factor of the polling numbers as we head toward early voting month in October.

Primaries in Four States Today; Conflicting Polls in Michigan;
Casey Up Double Digits;
New Jersey’s Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 13, 2024

Primaries

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) is expected to record a substantial primary victory today. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Voting Today: Four States and One CD — Voters in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin will vote today while the Harris County, Texas Democratic Party members are choosing a general election nominee to replace the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston).

The primaries will be quiet affairs in Connecticut and Vermont as all incumbents are running either unopposed or against minor opposition. Minnesota US Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) and Michelle Fishbach (R-Regal) face primary opposition that looked interesting for a time, but now both incumbents are expected to record substantial victories.

The WI-8 open seat Republican primary will attract the most attention in the Badger State. There former state Senate President Roger Roth, state Sen Andre Jacque (R-Green Bay), and businessman Tony Wied are vying for the party nomination. The winner will very likely succeed resigned Rep. Mike Gallagher (R).

The Democrats have a contested primary in the state’s western 3rd District where state Rep. Katrina Shankland (D-Stevens Point) and business owner Rebecca Cooke are vying for the opportunity to challenge freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien).

Former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner appears to be the favorite to come through the party nomination convention as the congressional nominee, though several state Representatives and Houston City council members are also vying for support from the 88 voting members.

Senate

Michigan: Conflicting Polls — Two surveys were released in the past three days, and while both find Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) leading former Rep. Mike Rogers (R), the margin between the two studies is highly inconsistent. The New York Times/Siena College (Aug. 5-8; 619 likely Michigan voters) found Rep. Slotkin leading 46-43 percent, which is in line with most other polls conducted of the race.

The Bullfinch Group, however, also tested the Michigan electorate in early August (polling for the Independent Center; part of a three swing state polling series; Aug. 8-11; 500 registered Michigan voters; online) and sees Rep. Slotkin posting a much larger 48-38 percent lead. The error factor in the latter poll, with a small online sample size, is much greater than the NYT/Siena College study, so it is likely that this survey is an anomaly.

Pennsylvania: Casey Up Double Digits in Two Surveys — A pair of research studies were also released in the Keystone State and produced similar results, the best so far for Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D). As in Michigan, the two were from the New York Times/Siena College (Aug. 6-8; 693 likely Pennsylvania voters) and the Bullfinch Group (polling for the Independent Center; part of a three swing state polling series; Aug. 8-11; 500 registered Michigan voters; online).

The NYT/Siena ballot test projected Sen. Casey’s lead to be a whopping 51-37 percent over former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R). Bullfinch found an almost identical result, recording the senator’s advantage at 51-39 percent over challenger McCormick. This was always going to be a tough race for Republicans, and now the McCormick campaign must make a serious move to tighten the race to ensure the candidate is positioned to potentially score an upset victory. Currently, Sen. Casey appears to be in the driver’s seat as he strives to clinch a fourth term.

Governor

New Jersey: Rep. Sherrill Preparing Statewide Run — As has long been anticipated, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) yesterday signaled that she will launch a 2025 campaign for governor soon after the November 2024 general election. Also expected to run is US Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff). Already announced are Democratic mayors Ras Baraka (Newark), Steve Fulop (Jersey City), and Sean Spiller (Montclair), in addition to former state Senate President Steve Sweeney.

The Republicans will feature 2021 GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli, state Sen. Jon Bramnick (R-Westfield), former state Senator Ed Durr, and radio talk show host Bill Spadea. Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is ineligible to seek a third term, hence the large forming candidate field especially on the Democratic side. This will be an intense gubernatorial contest.

Swing State Seesaw; Hawaii’s Election Results; New Leader in Delaware Governor’s Race, While North Carolina Stays Consistent

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 12, 2024

President

Polling: Swing State Seesaw — The presidential race continues to behave like a seesaw with regard to cumulative polling data. The most recent New York Times/Siena College polling series finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by identical 50-46 percent counts in the critical Great Lakes states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from their results released Aug. 10.

Yet, the Trafalgar Group and Insider Advantage released their cumulative data in the same states on Aug. 9. Trafalgar found Trump leading 46-44 percent in Pennsylvania, while IA sees Trump with a 49-48 percent edge in Wisconsin. The Insider Advantage Michigan result, Harris leading 49-47 percent, confirmed the NYT/Siena Wolverine State conclusion. With the race leaders varying literally by the day, at this point the contest appears to be a dead heat.

Primary Results

Hawaii: Electorate Voted Saturday — There was not a great deal of competition in Saturday’s Aloha State primary. Sen. Mazie Hirono (D), on the ballot seeking a third term was renominated with a landslide 90.5 percent of the Democratic primary vote. She will now face former state representative and ex-US Senate nominee Bob McDermott, who captured 52 percent of the vote in a six-way Republican primary. In 2022, McDermott lost to Sen. Brian Schatz (D), 69-25 percent. Another similar outcome is forecast for his race against Sen. Hirono. The only interesting Hawaii primary political news is the state House Speaker, Scott Saiki (D-Downtown Honolulu), losing his bid for renomination to state Board of Education member Kim Coco Iwamoto.

Governor

Delaware: New Polling Leader — According to a Concord Public Opinion Partners survey (conducted for the Education Reform Now Advocacy organization; Aug. 2-4; 453 registered Delaware voters; live interview & text), the negative publicity surrounding Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long’s alleged campaign finance violations in not disclosing money paid to her husband has hurt her bid for governor.

The Concord poll finds New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer leading the open Democratic gubernatorial primary with a 30-23 percent spread as the two battle to win the Sept. 10 primary election. The winner will become the clear favorite to claim the general election in November. Gov. John Carney (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Instead, he is running for mayor of Wilmington, the small state’s largest city.

North Carolina: AG Stein (D) Opening Consistent Lead — The Cygnal polling organization released a statewide Tar Heel State survey, and their data finds Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson falling further behind Attorney General Josh Stein (D) in their race to succeed term-limited Gov. Roy Cooper (D). The poll (Aug. 4-5; 600 likely North Carolina general election voters) finds AG Stein topping Robinson, 43-38 percent, even though all other Republicans are leading.

In the presidential race, former President Trump runs ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris, 47-44 percent. In the open attorney’s general contest, GOP Rep. Dan Bishop (R-Charlotte) holds a 42-38 percent advantage over Democratic Rep. Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte). And, in a race for state Supreme Court, the Republican contender, Jefferson Griffin, posts a 40-37 percent edge over Democrat Allison Riggs.

Polling Mish-Mash in PA; Trump Up, Moreno Down in Ohio; Toss-up in PA-7; Special Election Called in TX-18

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 6, 2024

President

Pennsylvania: A Polling Mish-Mash — Four pollsters released late July Pennsylvania results, and while Susquehanna Polling & Research and Public Opinion Strategies find Vice President Kamala Harris leading the state, Bloomberg/Morning Consult and Public Policy Polling still see former President Donald Trump having a slight advantage.

Susquehanna (July 22-28; 600 likely Pennsylvania voters) sees Harris leading 47-43 percent. Public Opinion Strategies (7/23-29; 400 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview) posts the Vice President to a 48-45 percent edge. Bloomberg/Morning Consult (July 24-28; 800 likely Pennsylvania voters; online) sees a four point Trump lead, 50-46 percent, and Public Policy Polling (July 29-30; 627 registered Pennsylvania voters; live interview & text) also finds Trump with the slight edge, 48-47 percent. Combining all of this recent data suggests the race is a virtual dead heat and a long way from being decided.

Senate

Ohio: Trump, Brown Up — The familiar President-US Senate pattern we have witnessed in several states is again present even with a new Democratic presidential nominee. The bipartisan poll from Fabrizio Lee (R) and Impact Research (D) for AARP (July 23-29; 600 likely Ohio voters; live interview and text) finds former President Trump leading Vice President Harris by nine percentage points, 48-39 percent, while Republican US Senate nominee Bernie Moreno continues to trail Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). In the Senate ballot test, Democrat Sen. Brown’s lead is four points, 46-42 percent.

The Ohio margin spread is a net swing of 13 points, and a bit exaggerated from the other states exhibiting a similar pattern. In order to capitalize on Trump’s Ohio lead, the Moreno campaign must find a better way of painting Sen. Brown in a negative light in order to move the election toward the GOP challenger. So far, such has not occurred.

House

PA-7: District Continues Toss-Up Trend — The latest Tarrance Group poll (July 21-24; 404 likely PA-7 voters; live interview) sees Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown) again embroiled in a tight re-election contest. In her last two races, Rep. Wild has won with 51-49 percent margins over the same GOP opponent, businesswoman Lisa Scheller. This time, she faces a different competitor, state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Macungie Township). The Tarrance ballot test finds Rep. Wild’s lead at only 47-45 percent despite a large disparity in campaign resources, while former President Trump has a similar sized lead over Vice President Harris within the 7th District, 48-46 percent.

TX-18: Special Election Called — Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) announced that he will schedule the special election to fill the balance of the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee’s (D-Houston) term to run concurrently with the general election. If no one secures a majority on Nov. 5, a runoff will be scheduled. At that point, however, there will only be a few days remaining in the current term. The Harris County Democratic Party will choose a regular general election replacement for Rep. Jackson Lee.

The seat is heavily Democratic, so the field will consist almost entirely of that party’s members. Former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner is an announced contender as are Houston Democratic state representatives Jarvis Johnson and Christina Morales. Houston City Councilwoman Letitia Plummer is also an announced candidate along with former City Council members Amanda Edwards and Dwight Boykins. The party committee nomination process will occur before Aug. 17 according to the county chairman. Whoever the committee members choose will go a long way toward determining the special election winner, as well.

Michigan Senate Race Movement; Pennsylvania’s Casey Up Solidly; Surprising New Alabama Poll;
Cori Bush Trailing in Re-Election Bid

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Senate

Michigan: Pensler Out; Two Polls — Underdog Michigan US Senate candidate Sandy Pensler (R) announced that he is abandoning his own campaign and will instead endorse former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) for the GOP nomination to oppose US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing). The congresswoman is the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

A pair of polls were also released of the general election yielding considerably different results. While both find Rep. Slotkin leading, EPIC-MRA, the most prolific Michigan pollster (for the Detroit Free Press; July 13-17; 600 registered Michigan voters), sees the congresswoman posting a three point lead over Rogers, 43-40 percent.

Public Policy Polling, however, sees a more substantial Slotkin advantage. Their survey (July 17-18; 650 registered Michigan voters; multiple sampling techniques) posts a 46-38 percent result. Of the many polls taken of this race, the EPIC-MRA result is more consistent with the preponderance of other surveys.

Sen. Bob Casey Jr. / Photo: FoxNews.com

Pennsylvania: A Polling Trifecta — Three pollsters surveyed the Keystone State electorate, and all show Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) leading businessman David McCormick (R) beyond the polling margin of error. The most recent, from SoCal Research for the OnPoint political blog (July 20-21; 500 likely Pennsylvania voters; online), finds Sen. Casey posting a 10-point lead over McCormick, 50-40 percent, even while the same sample detects former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris, 50-46 percent.

Public Policy Polling, surveying for the liberal Clean and Prosperous American PAC (July 17-18; 624 registered Pennsylvania voters; multiple sampling techniques), found an almost identical result with Sen. Casey ahead 11 points, 50-39 percent.

Finally, British pollster Redfield & Wilton Strategies (for The Telegraph publication; July 16-18; 688 likely Pennsylvania voters; online, part of a seven-state polling track of 5,005 respondents) added the three minor party candidates to their ballot test and projects that Sen. Casey would lead McCormick 44-37 percent with the other candidates attracting a cumulative three percentage points.

House

AL-2: A Surprising New Poll — Alabama’s new 2nd Congressional District was drawn to elect an African American Democrat, but a recent Strategy Management poll for the Alabama Families PAC (7/22-24; 1,000 AL-2 registered voters; live interview & text) found Republican Caroleen Dobson polling close to race favorite Shomari Figures (D). The ballot test gives Figures just a 37-34 percent edge.

Additionally, Figures’ fundraising is far below what one would expect. According to the June 30th Federal Election Commission second quarter disclosure report, the Democratic nominee had raised only $894,000 as compared to Dobson’s $2.2 million, though $1.3 million of that total comes in the form of a candidate loan.

Figures is still favored in a seat that Kamala Harris should easily carry over Donald Trump, but Dobson’s effort may be worthy of more attention as the campaign season moves into prime time.

MO-1: Rep. Bush Trailing in Pre-Primary Survey — Apparently, the strong outside group influence aimed at defeating Missouri US Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis), approximately a 9:2 ratio in millions of dollars, is being well spent. A new Mellman Group poll July 21-24; 400 likely MO-1 Democratic primary voters) sees former St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell leading Rep. Bush, 48-42 percent, as the candidates steam toward next week’s Aug. 6 primary election. The Bell lead has increased five points since a previous poll was published in June.

The chief funder of the anti-Bush efforts is the United Democracy Project, which is the political arm of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). This group also led to charge to defeat another anti-Israel incumbent on June 25, Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY).

Pennsylvania Republican Senate Candidate McCormick Strikes First

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 29, 2024

Senate

Pennsylvania Republican Senate candidate David McCormick has jumped the starting gate to run an ad attacking Vice President Kamala Harris (see above) and linking his opponent, Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) to her. It appears he is the first Senate candidate to so quickly make an aggressive move regarding Harris.

The ad begins with Sen. Casey praising the vice president, and then continues to post a collage of Harris interviews where she espouses positions on the far left side of the political spectrum. This is of course designed to make Pennsylvania voters question her, and in a related way Sen. Casey, because he is such a strong supporter of the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.

Polling consistently finds McCormick trailing Sen. Casey — in the last three published polls from Emerson College, North Star Opinion Research, and SoCal Research, all during the July 20-23 period, the Democratic incumbent leads by four, eight, and 10 points, respectively — so the Republican challenger needs an offensive plan to make the race closer.

The ad is relatively long, just over a minute and one-half. This means it will play in its entirety as a digital message, and we can expect to see reduced versions on the airwaves. With the long list of issues the ad covers, we will see several similar but unique messages in markets throughout the Keystone State.

The ad features clips of Vice President Harris, including the time when she was a senator and presidential candidate in 2020, advocating eliminating the filibuster to pass the Green New Deal and favoring a fracking ban (Pennsylvania produces more natural gas from fracking than any other state) along with banning off-shore drilling and helping workers transition out of fossil fuel industry jobs.

She also says undocumented migrants should not be treated as criminals, wants to abolish ICE, and defund the police. She then states her support for changing the government’s food pyramid to reduce red meat consumption, advocates voting rights for prisoners, wants a mandatory buyback program for gun confiscation, hopes that private health insurance is eliminated, and desires government funded health care for illegals.

The shorter versions of this material will become finely targeted ads. It is likely, however, that all will contain the opening and closing segments which feature Sen. Casey saying that Kamala Harris is “inspiring” and “capable,” and that “the more people get to know her, they are going to be particularly impressed by her ability.”

Obviously, the McCormick consultants chose the clips that correspond to issue positions that the vast majority of Pennsylvanians will oppose. The ad is gaining high marks from right of center organization leaders through tweets and public comments because all of the articulated issue positions show video of Harris herself making the specific comments.

Since not all of her positions will be roundly opposed — reducing red meat consumption and banning off-shore drilling, for example — expect to see fewer of those clips.

Defunding the police, abolishing ICE, transitioning fossil fuel industry workers, and supporting a mandatory buy-back program for weapons will likely score big numbers among the viewers in northeastern, central, and western Pennsylvania. These are the regions that McCormick, and GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump, will need to counter the large margins that Harris and Casey will record from the populous Philadelphia metropolitan area.

As we have seen, polling data that places a Republican Senate candidate relatively far behind Trump’s standing has been a common occurrence in 2024, particularly when the Democratic Senate candidate is an incumbent. The McCormick ad strategy of tying the campaign’s opponent, Sen. Casey, to presumptive nominee Harris and her rather extreme policy positions in a manner directly presented for Pennsylvania could become a blueprint for GOP candidates in other states.

It is a certainty that we will see many such clips of Harris’s statements in campaign commercials throughout the nation in the final 100 days of this unique presidential campaign. Whether the strategy helps Republicans score down-ballot victories remains to be seen.