Tag Archives: Pennsylvania

RFK Jr. Out for Debate / Nevada Ballot? New Mexico at Play in Presidential / Senate Contests? Senate Polls Series Released

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 24, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Debate Decisions: Kennedy Out; Stein Files Complaint — CNN, the host of the June 27 presidential debate, announced that Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Green Party nominee Jill Stein have not qualified for the national forum. The main criteria of reaching 15 percent support in a series of major polls was not met by either candidate. Kennedy believes he still should be included and will attempt to qualify for the second debate to be scheduled for later in the year.

For her part, Stein is filing a complaint against CNN with the Federal Election Commission, following Kennedy’s own complaint, disputing the debate criteria as a violation of her rights as a candidate for federal office.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: Nevada Ballot Status in Jeopardy — The Nevada Democratic Party is reportedly preparing to file a lawsuit in Nevada state court arguing that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) should be removed from the state’s general election ballot. Their argument is that Kennedy does not qualify under Nevada law as an Independent because he remains a registered Democrat. It remains to be seen if this lawsuit will gain legs.

Senate

New Mexico: Sen. Heinrich Leads by 7 in New Poll — Public Policy Polling went into the field to test the New Mexico electorate (June 13-14; 555 registered New Mexico voters; live interview & text) and projects two-term Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) to hold a seven-point lead over Republican Nella Domenici, 47-40 percent.

Signs are increasing that New Mexico could become more competitive both in the presidential and senatorial contests. With the state’s plurality Hispanic population and the GOP performing better within that demographic, it appears possible for Republicans to record improved numbers in New Mexico’s general election. While it would not now be particularly surprising to see closer election results in November, Republicans are still a long way from winning either at the presidential or senatorial level in the Land of Enchantment.

Emerson College: Releases Series of Senate Polls — The Emerson College polling unit, in conjunction with The Hill newspaper, conducted a series of polls in six Democratic Senate states and released the data late last week. The six domains are Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In each place, the pollsters surveyed 1,000 registered voters during the June 13-18 period.

While testing the Senate races in the five most competitive states, excluding Minnesota, Emerson also asked the presidential ballot test question. In all five situations, within the same polling samples that produced Democratic leaders in each Senate campaign, former President Donald Trump simultaneously posted an advantage. Thus, we are already seeing the seeds of an unusually large degree of ticket splitting beginning to develop.

According to the Emerson numbers, Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) leads 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake (R), 45-41 percent. Looking at their Michigan results, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) tops former Congressman Mike Rogers (R), 43-39 percent. In Nevada, Sen. Jackie Rosen (D) enjoys the largest lead of any key swing state; she tops Afghan War veteran Sam Brown, 50-38 percent. Moving east, the Emerson numbers show Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) a 47-41 percent edge; and, Sen. Tammy Balwin (D-WI), while still leading, sees her margin over Republican Eric Hovde drop to just 46-44 percent.

In addition to Republicans converting the open West Virginia seat, they would have to turnaround one of the aforementioned races, or score a victory in three tight race states that Emerson College didn’t survey, Maryland, Montana, or Ohio, in order to secure an outright majority.

Consistent Inconsistency

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 17, 2024

Senate

Arizona senate candidate Kari Lake (R) struggles in race despite Trump’s lead in polls. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

While news stories are prevalent discussing former President Donald Trump’s polling status, which, despite being convicted in his New York trial, shows him leading in most of the swing states, the same cannot be said for most of the Republican senatorial candidates.

Last week, Senate surveys were released in Arizona, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, three key swing states. Marist College conducted the Ohio and Pennsylvania studies, while a Republican/Democratic polling combination, Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D), executed the Arizona project.

The Fabrizio/IR Arizona survey, conducted for AARP (May 28-June 4; 600 likely Arizona voters; live interview & text), projects former President Trump to be holding a 45-37-11-3 percent advantage over President Joe Biden, Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Green Party nominee Jill Stein. Yet, the open Senate ballot test before the same sampling universe favors Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) over former news anchor and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, 48-45 percent, a net 11-point swing from Trump’s lead to Lake’s deficit.

We see a similar pattern in the latest Ohio data. Marist College conducted the Buckeye State poll during the June 3-6 period and communicated with 1,137 registered Ohio voters either through telephone interview or online questionnaire. Here, we see Trump topping President Biden, Kennedy, Stein, and Dr. Cornel West, 48-41-5-1-1 percent. Yet, in the Senate race, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) posts a five point, 50-45 percent edge over Republican nominee Bernie Moreno, or a net 12 points behind Trump’s standing (Trump up 7; Moreno down 5).

Marist’s Pennsylvania findings also follow this similar pattern. The college’s polling administrators conducted the Keystone State survey during the same June 3-6 period as the Ohio study and interviewed either through phone or online contact 1,181 registered Pennsylvania voters. The results found Trump holding a two-point lead over President Biden, 47-45 percent, while Kennedy posted only three percent support, and Stein and Dr. West, one percent apiece. On the Senate question, however, Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) tops businessman David McCormick (R), by six percentage points, 52-46 percent, or a net eight points below Trump’s position.

Though we did not see new general election data released in Nevada and Wisconsin during the week, the Trump leading (or close to tied in Wisconsin)/Republican Senate candidate trailing pattern is also consistently present in these two places.

In two other highly competitive races, Michigan and Montana, the Senate races are much closer. The numbers between Trump and the leading Michigan Republican, former Rep. Mike Rogers, are pretty close, with each clearly falling into a toss-up realm. In Montana, while Trump is consistently running well ahead of President Biden, the Senate race between incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) and challenger Tim Sheehy (R) is a virtual tie.

Some of the presidential to Senate discrepancy can be explained through incumbency. In Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin the Republican candidates are challenging incumbent Democratic senators, Jacky Rosen (D-NV), Sens. Brown, Casey and Tammy Baldwin (D-WI). But, that’s not the case in Arizona where the similar pattern exists even in an open seat race.

The other state with a competitive Senate race, Maryland, is in a different category. Trump is far from leading in the Free State polling, nor will he at any time before the election. Maryland is going to be one of President Biden’s strongest states, and GOP nominee and former Gov. Larry Hogan has a different set of obstacles to overcome if he is to be successful.

With the current Senate map decidedly favoring the Republicans because they must defend only 11 seats as opposed to 23 for the Democrats, the GOP must maximize their win-to-loss ratio in the 2024 elections. Though they are effectively at a 50D-50R break from an electoral standpoint because of what appears as a virtual conversion lock in West Virginia, the Republican leadership must make a concerted effort to assist several of the challengers in defeating their incumbent Democratic opponents.

Getting to 53 or 54 Republican senators is the GOP goal for this election year. They must have such a cushion when they head into the 2026 and ’28 election years when the Senate election maps favor the Democrats.

Therefore, unless the Republican strategists can find a way to break the pattern we’re seeing in most of the competitive race states where their candidates trail while Trump leads, they will fall short of their goal. Monitoring their developing offensive strategy in the coming weeks merits significant attention.

Examining Polling Margin of Error; McCarthy Ally to Challenge Florida Rep. Gaetz; Court Strikes Down New Louisiana Congressional Map; Kennedy Wins NY-26 Special Election; Gov. to Run for Mayor in Delaware

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 1, 2024

Senate

Polling Margin of Error: Different Ballot Tests — All polls contain a margin of error, and two sets of surveys in the Pennsylvania and Wisconsin Senate races demonstrates the importance of the spread.

Both CBS News and Emerson College were in the field in both states at relatively the same point in time, but they arrived at significantly different results for the same races. CBS News (conducted by the YouGov polling firm; April 19-25; 1,306 registered Pennsylvania voters; online) found Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) leading businessman David McCormick (R), 46-42 percent. Beginning on April 25, Emerson College also studied the Keystone State Senate race. Their data (April 25-29; 1,000 likely Pennsylvania general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) posted Sen. Casey to a much larger 46-39 percent advantage.

Using a margin of error figure of three percentage points, we see that these two polls do fall within the pre-stated specter. Yet, the difference between a four- and seven-point edge on the ballot test is substantial.

We see a similar situation in the latest Wisconsin polling. During the same polling periods, again for both pollsters, we see similar divergent results yet within the polling margin of error. CBS/YouGov (April 19-25; 1,245 likely Wisconsin general election voters; online) finds Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) leading businessman Eric Hovde (R) 48-41 percent, while Emerson (April 25-29; 1,000 registered Wisconsin voters; multiple sampling techniques) again finds a closer race. Their result detects a Baldwin edge of only 46-43 percent. Again, a significant difference, yet within the polling margin of error spread.

House

FL-1: McCarthy Ally to Challenge Rep. Gaetz — At last Friday’s candidate filing deadline, controversial Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) drew a Republican primary challenger who could enjoy outside support. Retired Navy officer Aaron Dimmock (R) filed his candidacy just before time expired. Reports suggest that former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) will back Dimmock and raise substantial support money from loyal organizations who want to even the score for McCarthy’s political demise. Rep. Gaetz was the leader of the McCarthy ouster movement.

It remains to be seen how well Dimmock could perform in the Aug. 20 Republican primary. In 2022, Rep. Gaetz easily turned back a well-funded Republican primary challenge from businessman Mark Lombardo who spent just under $800,000 for his campaign. The congressman won renomination over Lombardo with a landslide 70-24 percent victory margin.

Louisiana: Court Strikes Down New Congressional Map — Louisiana plaintiffs challenging the state’s new congressional map that created a second majority minority district that stretched from Baton Rouge to Shreveport received a favorable ruling yesterday from the three-judge federal panel hearing the lawsuit. The decision means the new congressional map is nullified. The judicial panel will now consider replacement maps. The plaintiffs argued the district was drawn only on racial criteria in violation of the US Constitution.

The ruling is likely to help Republicans, and particularly Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge) whose GOP favorable 6th District was reconfigured as a majority minority seat designed to elect an African-American Democrat. The secretary of state informed the court that the 2024 districts must be in place by May 15 to allow the election office to properly administer the election. Therefore, a quick remedy decision will soon follow.

NY-26: Tim Kennedy (D) Wins Special Election — As expected, state Sen. Tim Kennedy (D-Buffalo) easily scored a special election victory last night to succeed resigned Rep. Brian Higgins (D) in New York’s 26th Congressional District. Kennedy received 75 percent of the vote in the heavily Democratic seat that Republicans basically conceded. The latter party’s candidate, West Seneca Town Supervisor Gary Dickson, reported raising only $35,000 in the pre-election Federal Election Commission disclosure report.

The Kennedy victory means the House party division will move to 217R – 213D with five vacancies (4R – 1D). The 26th District encompasses the Buffalo metropolitan area including parts of Erie and Niagara Counties.

Governor

Delaware: Gov. Carney to Run for Mayor — Two-term Delaware Gov. John Carney (D), who is ineligible under the state’s election law from seeking a third term, instead announced that he will run for mayor of Wilmington. Should Gov. Carney win the open municipal post — he’ll be favored to top City Treasurer Velda Jones-Potter (D) — he would become at least the third governor to later become a mayor.

Gov. Carney would join former Maryland Gov. Ted McKeldin (R) who was elected the state’s chief executive in the 1950s and then return as mayor of Baltimore in the 1960s. Gov. Jerry Brown was elected mayor of Oakland after his first stint as governor of California. He would then return to the governorship and eventually serve 16 non-consecutive years as the state’s chief executive.

Trump Leads in All But One Swing State; Utah GOP Nominating Convention Saturday; Kansas State House Leader Nixes Run

THE SWING STATES: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 26, 2024

President

Bloomberg Swing State Polls: Trump Leading in All But One — Bloomberg News, in partnership with the Morning Consult data organization, conducted presidential polls in all seven of the key swing states during the April 8-13 period. The cumulative data produced very good news for former President Donald Trump, as he is projected to lead in six of the seven states in both head-to-head pairings with President Joe Biden and when the independent and minor candidates are added to the polling questionnaire.

In the one-on-one polling series, Trump leads Biden in a range from one (Pennsylvania) to 10 (North Carolina) percentage points. Only in Michigan does President Biden have an advantage (+2). When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) and the minor party candidates are added, which is the more realistic ballot test, Trump’s advantage either holds or grows. Under this scenario, his advantage stretches from one (Pennsylvania) to a whopping 14 percentage points (Nevada). Again, under this configuration, President Biden would lead only in Michigan (+3).

This polling series represents Trump’s strongest cumulative swing state showing of 2024. The polled states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Senate

Utah: GOP Nominating Convention Tomorrow — Utah Republican delegates convene tomorrow at the Salt Palace Convention Center in Salt Lake City to consider a large ticket of primary endorsements, the most important of which are for the open US Senate seat and governor.

In Utah, candidates can qualify for the ballot in one of two ways. The first is to obtain 40 percent of the delegate vote at the state convention. Doing so guarantees a primary ballot line for no more than two candidates. The second way is to petition onto the ballot, which means collecting 28,000 valid registered party members’ signatures for a statewide candidacy. For a US House race, the required signature number is 7,000 within the particular district.

Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo), former state House Speaker Brad Wilson, and businessman and podcast host Jason Walton have already qualified for the US Senate Republican primary ballot via petition signatures. Therefore, regardless of whether these men receive the 40 percent delegate support necessary to advance to the primary in tomorrow’s convention, they have each secured a ballot line. Attorney Brett Orrin Hatch, son of the late Sen. Orrin Hatch (R), submitted petitions but is approximately 7,000 signatures short of qualifying. Thus, he can access the ballot only through the delegate process tomorrow.

In the governor’s race, the only candidate qualifying through petition is incumbent Gov. Spencer Cox. For the US House, 1st District Rep. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) is the only incumbent to qualify through petition signatures. The state’s other incumbents, Reps. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) and Burgess Owens (R-Salt Lake City), will qualify through the delegate process. No opponent to either Reps. Maloy or Owens has submitted petition signatures.

House

KS-2: Majority Leader Won’t Run for House — Despite indicating interest in running for Congress when Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka) announced his retirement last week, Kansas state House Majority Leader Chris Croft (R-Overland Park) yesterday issued a statement saying he will not run.

Croft’s decision is principally due to the fact that his home Overland Park area is fully contained in the 3rd District, thus giving him very little in the way of a political base in District 2. A crowded Republican field is expected to form before the June 1 candidate filing deadline. With a FiveThirtyEight data organization rating of R+21, the Republican primary winner will become the definitive favorite in the general election.

Pennsylvania Presidential, House Primary Results; Challenger in MI-4; Changes in Virginia’s Governor Race

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 24, 2024

President

President Joe Biden / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Pennsylvania: Presidential Primary Results — Recently, there has been an uptick in President Joe Biden’s polling numbers, particularly in the critical Great Lakes states, and the turnout pattern in last night’s Pennsylvania primary looks to verify those figures.

While we had consistently seen higher Republican turnout opposite the Democrats in the earlier primary states around the country, yesterday in the Keystone State, approximately 100,000 more Democrats look to have voted than Republicans once all of the cast ballots are recorded. President Biden recorded 88.8 percent in the Democratic primary, while former President Donald Trump took 82.8 percent on the Republican side.

House

Pennsylvania: House Primary Results — In the Pennsylvania congressional races, the most competitive incumbent challenge occurred in the Pittsburgh-anchored 12th District. While challenger Bhavini Patel ran a strong grassroots effort against freshman Rep. Summer Lee (D-Swissvale), the race ended in a projected 60.2 – 39.4 percent split in the congresswoman’s favor. A combination of a major Lee resource advantage and staying away from any emphasis on her being part of the Socialist Democratic caucus’ “Squad,” allowed her to capture a definitive renomination victory.

In terms of challenger races, state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Emmaus) defeated technology business owner and 2022 congressional candidate Kevin Dellicker and attorney Maria Montero to win the GOP nomination in the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton anchored 7th District. Mackenzie will now advance to the general election to face three-term Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown) in what figures to be another competitive campaign. Rep. Wild has averaged only 51.5 percent of the vote in her last two elections. Yesterday’s turnout in this seat proved to be about even between the two parties.

In the 10th District that featured a competitive Democratic primary for the right to challenge veteran Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg), former local news anchor Janelle Stelson outpaced businessman Mike O’Brien and four others to claim the party nomination. Turnout favored the Republicans in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+9. Still, this is another campaign to watch in the coming general election.

MI-4: Rep. Huizenga Draws Primary Challenger — On the last day of candidate filing in Michigan, Ottawa County Republican Party chairman Brendan Muir announced that he will challenge seven-term US Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) in the 2024 Republican primary. This is Rep. Huizenga’s first term representing the post-redistricting 4th CD. Prior to the 2022 election, he was the 2nd District incumbent, but that seat was eliminated in reapportionment and redistricting.

Ottawa County, which houses Huizenga’s home city of Holland, is an entity housing just over 300,000 residents. The 4th District portion of Ottawa County — the municipality is split between the 3rd and 4th Districts — is the second largest voting block in the CD behind Kalamazoo County. Rep. Huizenga will be a heavy favorite both for renomination and re-election.

Governor

Virginia: Spanberger Opponent Drops Bid — Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney (D) announced yesterday that he is ending his 2025 bid for governor and instead will enter what is expected to be an open contest for lieutenant governor. The move, at least for the short term, leaves Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Cove) as unopposed for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination.

Stoney, however, is entering a contested primary for the secondary position. State Sen. Aaron Rouse (D-Virginia Beach), a former NFL and UFL football player, also announced his bid for lieutenant governor yesterday. Sen. Rouse, also a former Virginia Beach City Councilman, was elected to the Senate in a special election in early 2023.

RFK Jr. Qualifies in Michigan;
More Candidates in KS-2;
Wisconsin Rep. Gallagher Resigns; Pennsylvania Primary Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 23, 2024

President

Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

RFK Jr: Qualifies for Ballot in Michigan — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has obtained ballot position in the critical swing state of Michigan on the Natural Law Party line. The Independent national candidate is also on the ballot in Utah, and his campaign says he will file the requisite number of signatures plus significantly more in Idaho, Iowa, Hawaii, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. His chances of obtaining 4,000 valid signatures in Maine are also strong.

Currently, Kennedy will compete in some critical swing states and could determine the outcome for one of the major party candidates if his vote coalition takes decidedly more votes from President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump. Therefore, we see that his candidacy could tip the electoral vote count in Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and the 2nd District of Nebraska. All are expected to produce very close final tallies for the two major party presidential candidates.

House

KS-2: More Individuals in the Candidate Mix — Potential Kansas congressional candidates continue to contemplate their political moves in response to last week’s surprise retirement announcement from two-term Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka).

Republicans already expressing interest in announcing their candidacies are state House Majority Leader Chris Croft, Leavenworth County Attorney Todd Thompson, and state Sen. Caryn Tyson (R-Parker). Former state attorney general and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Derek Schmidt acknowledges that his name is in the mix for the 2nd District but has not yet made a statement regarding intent. State Insurance Commissioner Vicky Schmidt is a possible candidate. Topeka Mayor Michelle de la Isla is mentioned as a potential Democratic contender.

The Kansas candidate filing deadline is June 1. The real action is in the Republican primary as the seat will almost assuredly remain in the GOP column. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+21, and Trump carried the district 57-41 percent in the 2020 presidential campaign.

WI-8: Rep. Gallagher (R) Resigns — After staying to vote on the foreign aid bills, Wisconsin Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Green Bay) officially resigned his seat. His action reduces the total House count to 430, and the Republican majority to 217-213. Gallagher joins former Reps. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), Brian Higgins (D-NY), Bill Johnson (R-OH), and Ken Buck (R-CO) who also left the House prior to finishing the current term.

Special elections to fill the balance of the terms will be held in all but Wisconsin. The New York district will be filled April 30, CA-20 on May 21, the OH-6 seat on June 11, and Rep. Buck’s Colorado CD on June 25. Each party is expected to hold the seats of their departing members. If so, when the special election cycles conclude, the Republicans will have 220 seats and the Democrats’ 214.

States

Pennsylvania: Primary Today — The nation’s only April primary is scheduled for today, and electorates in several key House races will choose nominees. Presidential turnout, as a gauge for voting enthusiasm, will be monitored, while both major party US Senate candidates — Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) and businessman David McCormick (R) — are unopposed in their respective nomination campaigns.

We have several major primaries occurring, one that will seal a seat for the Democratic nominee in the Pittsburgh anchored 12th District, and two more in swing districts that will lead to highly competitive general election races.

Freshman Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pittsburgh) defends against local official Bhavini Patel in District 12. Republicans feature a competitive primary to challenge vulnerable Reps. Susan Wild (D-Allentown), as do Democrats opposite six-term Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/ Harrisburg).

Republicans also look to mount strong challenges against Reps. Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton) and Chris Deluzio (D-Aspinwall). Tomorrow, however, their candidates, businessman Rob Bresnahan and state Rep. Rob Mercuri (R-Pine Richland), face no intraparty opposition.

Swing State Polling Favors Trump; Sen. Scott’s Strong Lead in Florida; House Open Seat No. 50; A Challenger in Wisconsin’s 1st District

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 22, 2024

President

Swing state poll graphic: NJ.com/Politics

Fox News Polls: Trump Faring Well in Swing State Polling — Fox News just went into the field to test the key swing states for the presidential campaign — Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. To win the presidency, former President Donald Trump must convert Georgia and one of the Great Lakes States at a minimum. Should Trump prevail in Georgia and Pennsylvania, for example, he would have enough Electoral College votes to defeat President Joe Biden so long as he held all 25 states that previously twice voted for him.

All of the polls were conducted from April 11-16 and housed sampling universes comprised of 1,126 to 1,198 registered voters from the aforementioned states. In these polls, Trump would lead President Biden 51-45 percent in Georgia, and 49-46 percent in Michigan, while fighting to a draw at 48-48 percent in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the minor party candidates are added to the questionnaire, the ballot tests change. While Trump continues to top Biden in Georgia and Michigan under this new configuration, he takes a 44-42-8 percent lead in Pennsylvania. Biden, however, forges ahead in Wisconsin, 43-41-9 percent.

Senate

Florida: Sen. Scott’s Stronger Lead — Mainstreet Research, polling for Florida Atlantic University (April 15-17; 815 likely Florida general election voters; text & interactive voice response system) finds Sen. Rick Scott (R) in much stronger shape against presumed Democratic nominee and former Congresswoman Debbie Mursell-Powell. According to the FAU numbers, Sen. Scott scores a 53-36 percent advantage.

Earlier in April, Ipsos Research, for USA Today (April 5-7; 1,014 Florida adults; online) found the senator’s lead at 36-26 percent, though this poll did not isolate registered voters. Emerson College (April 3-7; 608 likely Florida general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) reported a 45-38 percent ballot test, also in Sen. Scott’s favor.

House

KS-2: Open Seat #50 — Two-term Jayhawk State US Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka) surprisingly announced late last week that he will not seek re-election later this year, and further stated that he would not enter any of the Kansas statewide contests in 2026. Gov. Laura Kelly (D) will be ineligible to seek a third term at that time, and speculation was already surrounding Rep. LaTurner as a possible gubernatorial candidate.

The congressman, at the age of 36, is the youngest Republican House member. Prior to winning the congressional office in 2020, LaTurner had served as Kansas’s State Treasurer and was twice elected to the state Senate.

The LaTurner decision means there are 50 US House seats that will be open for the next election, 25 from the Democratic Conference, 24 from the Republicans, and one newly created district in Alabama. The GOP nominee will be the favorite to hold the seat in November. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+21. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks KS-2 as the 83rd most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

WI-1: Ex-Congressman to Challenge Rep. Steil — Former Wisconsin Congressman Peter Barca (D), who represented the 1st Congressional District for one term (1993-1995) before losing his seat to Republican Mark Neumann, announced that he will challenge House Administration Committee chairman Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) later this year.

After his congressional defeat, Barca returned to the state Assembly, the body from which he first came to Congress, winning a seat in 2008. He would serve another 10 years before Gov. Tony Evers (D) appointed him Secretary of the Department of Revenue.

The southern Wisconsin 1st District is competitive. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+6, but the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate only a 49.4R – 48.3D partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks WI-1 as the 21st most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

Still, Barca will have a difficult time unseating Rep. Steil. From the Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports just released for the period ending March 31, Rep. Steil holds just over $4 million in his campaign account.

April-May Primary Outlook – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 15, 2024

Primaries

On the threshold of witnessing another set of primary elections, we begin a two-part overview of what to expect in nine primary states whose electorates will vote later this month and in May.

Today, we look at the lone April primary, that in Pennsylvania, and the first of the May nomination elections, Indiana, on the 7th of next month. Three states, Maryland, Nebraska, and West Virginia, will hold primaries on May 14, while four more vote on May 21: Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, and Oregon.

In Pennsylvania, with candidates headed to an April 23 primary date, we see an uncontested US Senate nomination battle in both parties with three major primary campaigns headed toward culmination.

Counting the Senate race, Pennsylvania looks to host four highly competitive general elections coming from the primaries, while three US House incumbents, Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown), Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia), and Mike Kelly (R-Butler) each face only minor nomination competition.

Pennsylvania

While the Senate election will produce fireworks in the general election, the April 23 nomination vote will be quiet in both primaries. Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) and businessman and 2022 Senate candidate David McCormick (R) are both unopposed in their respective nomination contests. Sen. Casey is favored to win a fourth term, but this race will be one of the premier campaigns in the ’24 cycle.

While Rep. Fitzpatrick faces only minor primary competition, his politically marginal 1st District will again be at least moderately competitive in the general election. Government affairs consultant Ashley Ehasz, the 2022 Democratic nominee who lost to the congressman 55-45 percent, returns for a re-match. She is unopposed in her party primary.

While three-term Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown) can again expect to face a highly competitive general election, she is unopposed for renomination. The Republicans feature a three-way primary race among state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Emmaus), 2022 candidate and businessman Kevin Dellicker, and DeSales University Trustee Maria Montero. The plurality primary winner on April 23 then advances into what could become a toss-up general election against Rep. Wild who won her last two elections with 52 and 51 percent of the vote in 2020 and 2022, respectively.

Just to the north of Rep. Wild’s 7th District, Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic) will again face tough competition in the general election. This time, his Republican opponent will be businessman Rob Bresnahan. Both are unopposed in their respective primaries.

The Democrats feature a major multi-candidate primary battle for the right to challenge six-term Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsworth/Harrisburg) in the competitive 10th District. Six Democrats are vying for the right to challenge Perry, who they claim is too conservative for the politically marginal seat that only leans to the Republicans (FiveThirtyEight data organization rating: R+9). Of the six, businessman and Afghan War veteran Mike O’Brien; former news anchor Janelle Stelson; and 2022 nominee Shamaine Daniels, a Harrisburg City councilwoman; are the principal contenders.

Perhaps the most interesting Pennsylvania congressional primary lies in the Pittsburgh anchored 12th CD where freshman Rep. Summer Lee (D-Swissvale) and Edgewood Borough Councilwoman Bhavini Patel are doing battle in the Democratic primary. Patel is challenging Rep. Lee from a centrist political position, attacking the incumbent as being too far left as a member of the Democratic Conference’s informal far left “Squad” led by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY). Both candidates are heavily engaged, and this will be the top primary to watch on April 23. Lee prevailed in the 2022 open Democratic primary with 42 percent of the vote, topping her principal opponent by 988 votes.

Freshman Rep. Chris Deluzio (D-Aspinwall) will face a competitive general election in the Allegheny County anchored 17th CD, but he and state Rep. Rob Mercuri (R-Pine Richland) are both unopposed in their respective primaries.

Indiana

We will see several competitive primaries unfold in the Hoosier State on May 7. Sen. Mike Braun (R) faces a field of five Republican opponents in his quest to win the open governor’s office, including Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch. Sen. Braun is favored. To replace him in Washington, Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) is unopposed in the Republican primary and will easily win the general election in November.

A total of three Indiana US House seats are open in the nine-district delegation. In Rep. Banks 3rd CD, eight Republican candidates are competing including former Congressman Marlin Stutzman, state Sen. Andy Zay (R-Huntington County), and retired circuit judge Wendy Davis. The May 7 GOP winner should see easily sailing in the general election from this Ft. Wayne-anchored CD.

Rep. Greg Pence (R-Columbus) is retiring after serving what will be three terms, and a crowded field of eight Republicans are competing to replace him in the US House. The field includes a state senator, a state representative, a former senator, an ex-representative, and a former Indianapolis City councilman. This race is a free-for-all, and the eventual winner will come nowhere close to receiving majority support.

Seven-term Rep. Larry Bucshon (R-Evansville) is also retiring, and a crowded competitive Republican field also exists in this southwestern CD. Like the 3rd District primary, the 8th CD open GOP candidate field features former US Congressman John Hostettler. Eight Republicans are opposing him including state Sen. Mark Messmer who has been in the legislature since the beginning of 2009, and Owen County GOP chair Kristi Risk.

Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Noblesville) became the first of the House incumbents to announce that she would not seek re-election in 2024. She changed her mind and is running again, but that did not stop any of her 10 Republican opponents from remaining in the race. Her main competition comes from state Rep. Chuck Goodrich (R-Noblesville), and recent polling suggests this race will be close. If Rep. Spartz is renominated, it will likely be only with plurality support.

Reps. Jim Baird (R-Greencastle), Andre Carson (D-Indianapolis), and Erin Houchin (R-Salem) face only minor competition in their respective primaries. Rep. Frank Mrvan (D-Highland/Gary) is unopposed in the Democratic primary, but will again face competition in the general election.

RFK Jr.’s VP Choice; Swing State Data; Casey’s Lead Diminishing; Cruz Polls Show Tight Texas Race

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 27, 2024

President

Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I)

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: VP Choice — Yesterday presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) announced that wealthy entrepreneur Nicole Shanahan, the founder of the ClearAccessIP legal technology company that she later sold, will be his vice presidential running mate. Shanahan is, like Kennedy, an environmental activist. She contributed $4 million to his campaign to help finance the Super Bowl ad that the Kennedy campaign ran to emphasize his family history. In the 2020 presidential race, Shanahan contributed to Democratic candidates Pete Buttigieg and Marianne Williamson.

Kennedy has qualified for the ballot in the state of Wisconsin but may have to re-start his petition drive in Nevada. RFK Jr. is reportedly qualified or in strong position to do so in eight states: Arizona, Georgia, Hawaii, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Utah, and now Wisconsin. He may have problems in Nevada, however. The submitted petitions may be disqualified because Kennedy did not list a vice presidential running mate, which is a requirement under Nevada election law.

Of the eight states in which his name so far will appear, four are critical swing-state battlegrounds. Therefore, the Kennedy candidacy could affect the final result in the highly competitive entities of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin.

Morning Consult: Releases Latest Swing State Data — The Morning Consult organization released the latest data on their continuing swing state tracking project. This iteration shows improvement for President Joe Biden as he records a one-point edge in Wisconsin and is tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan. The tracking polls were conducted from October through March, and regularly surveyed at least 437 registered voters from each of the seven tested states.

The sampling universes in the remaining four states, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, continue to support former President Donald Trump. Unless one of the tied states (Michigan or Pennsylvania) falls Trump’s way, he cannot win a majority in the Electoral College even though he continues to poll ahead in the majority of swing states.

Senate

Pennsylvania: Casey’s Lead Diminishing — Two new polls are suggesting that the Pennsylvania Senate race is getting closer. Susquehanna Research just released a statewide survey completed in early March (Feb. 27-March 5; 450 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview) that projects Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) to be leading former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R) by a 48-42 percent margin. The result is virtually the same as the firm found in January (Casey leading 46-42 percent), but considerably different than the 12-point Casey advantage they detected in their survey from 10 months ago.

Emerson College, polling for The Hill newspaper (March 10-13; 1,000 registered Pennsylvania voters; multiple sampling techniques), sees an even tighter 52-48 percent margin when the undecided respondents are pushed for an answer.

While the current tendencies appear to give McCormick some momentum, the voter history, and legacy of the Casey family (aside from Sen. Casey winning three US Senate terms, the incumbent’s father, Bob Casey, Sr., served two terms as governor and eight years as attorney general) suggest upending the senator remains a very tall order.

Texas: Cruz’s Zig Zag Polling Pattern — The latest Texas statewide survey finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) leading US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) only by a relatively small margin. Marist College (March 18-21; 1,117 registered Texas voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects Sen. Cruz holding a 51-45 percent advantage over Allred. A month ago, the University of Texas found the senator holding a 12-point lead. In January, Emerson College saw Cruz claiming only a two-point edge.

It would not be surprising to see a similar zig-zag pattern continue through the bulk of the election period. Because Sen. Cruz’s favorability numbers tend to be below average for a two-term incumbent, the issue matrix within this campaign cycle, particularly in Texas, will favor the Republican office holder.

Though Rep. Allred is certainly a credible Democratic challenger it is difficult to see Sen. Cruz, or any Lone Star State Republican, losing. With President Biden leading the Democratic ticket and having to defend his energy and border policy stances in a state where his party hasn’t scored a major statewide win since 1994, it increases the difficulty factor for a Democratic upset at all political levels. Therefore, expect to see differing polls throughout the campaign cycle, but the actual election will likely culminate in a Cruz victory margin of at least five percentage points.

Trump Projected to Win Electoral College; California Primary Poll Jockeying; Texas Senate Race Numbers; NJ-8 Dueling Dem Polls

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 22, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump

Decision Desk HQ: Projects Trump at 312 EVs — The Decision Desk HQ, in association with The Hill newspaper, has forecast a new 50-state electoral vote projection. All swing states are averaged based upon data from at least five recent polls. The new estimates give former President Donald Trump his largest-ever Electoral College vote lead, 312-226.

The key swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are all landing in the Trump camp according to DDHQ. To win the 2024 election, Trump needs to convert states that equal 35 electoral votes. According to this projection, Trump is improving his stance by 80 electoral votes when compared with his 2020 performance.

Senate

California: Primary Battle Over Second Place — Emerson College surveyed the California electorate in a partnership with The Hill newspaper and the Inside California Politics blog (Feb. 16-18; 1,000 registered California voters; 935 likely jungle primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) again found US Rep. Adam Schiff (D) leading the open US Senate field, this time with 28 percent of the vote. In second place, and for the first time with a sizable advantage over the third-place finisher, is former baseball great Steve Garvey (R) with 22 percent. Following are Reps. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) with 16 percent and nine percent, respectively.

The poll has a number of positive points for Garvey. Aside from the Emerson/Hill data suggesting he secures a general election slot, he does well with older voters. He registers a 33 percent preference total from those over 70 years of age, which is typically the highest turnout sector, and scores in second position with who voters believe would best handle the crime, homelessness, war in Israel, and immigration issues, while rating only three points below who would best handle abortion.

Additionally, the third-place finisher, Rep. Porter, does best with the youth vote, but this segment has the poorest participation history.

The California jungle primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5. The top two finishers regardless of political party affiliation or percentage attained will advance to the general election. Sen. Laphonza Butler (D), who Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) appointed to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), is not running for a full term.

Texas: Rep. Allred Establishes Strong Primary Lead, Cruz Likewise in General — YouGov, polling for the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin (Feb. 2-12; 1,313 registered Texas voters; 1,200 likely Texas primary voters; online), tested the Lone Star State electorate for the coming March 5 primary election, and found US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas), who has been using his resource advantage to advertise heavily, exceeding the 50 percent threshold within the Democratic primary segment. According to the YouGov results, Allred records a 52 percent preference figure as compared to state Sen. Roland Gutierrez’s (D-San Antonio) 14 percent.

Former Nueces County District Attorney Mark Gonzalez and state Rep. Carl Sherman (D-Dallas) register support figures of only five and two percent.

Within the general election sample, however, the tables turn. Here, Sen. Ted Cruz (R) records his best polling stance of the current campaign, with a 46-32 percent margin over Rep. Allred. The Daily Kos Elections site analysts criticized the poll because the questionnaire did not assign a party label with each candidate. They reason that Allred would have received better support had such been the case.

Two points of disagreement: first, the primary question was asked before the general election question, thus the voters were already told that Allred was a Democrat. Second, it is more likely that Sen. Cruz, who has not been overly popular in the state, would have actually benefited more with party labels since Texas has been a solid state for the GOP since the early 1990s.

House

NJ-8: Dueling Internal Dem Primary Polls — Last week, Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City) released the results of his internal TargetSmart survey that posted him to a relatively strong 46-22 percent advantage over Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla in their quest for the Democratic nomination. On Wednesday, the Bhalla campaign countered with their own poll, this one from GQR Research another highly rated polling firm. This data (released Feb. 20; 403 likely NJ-8 Democratic primary voters) finds a much different ballot test, with the incumbent leading only 44-41 percent.

These polls, seemingly both well conducted, are far apart in how they view the race. This will be another of the most interesting primary contests to watch during our current election cycle.