Tag Archives: Pennsylvania

Trouble for Biden in Swing States; Incumbents Reign in 2023 Elections; Former Michigan Rep. Announces for Senate; What the Amo RI-1 Win Means

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 9, 2023

President

President Joe Biden is in trouble in swing states. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Siena College/NYT Poll: Trouble for Biden in Swing States — Siena College and the New York Times teamed up on recent polls in six key swing states all conducted during the Oct. 22 to Nov. 3 period. The six states are: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The tested Republicans against President Joe Biden were former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. In all instances, with the exception of Trump in Wisconsin, the named Republican would poll ahead of President Biden, thus unseating him if the election were today.

Of the three Republicans, Haley performs the strongest against the Biden. Her best number, +14, comes among Wisconsin likely voters. Trump’s best state is Nevada (+11); DeSantis tops President Biden by five percentage points among Arizona registered voters; Biden’s best showing comes against Trump in Wisconsin (+2).

The Democrats certainly have time to right their political ship, and if Trump is convicted in any of his criminal cases, that might get adjudicated before the election, and the tables could quickly turn. This campaign will prove the most unique of presidential elections.

Election 2023

Déjà Vu: Incumbents Reign — The 2023 odd-numbered year elections are now in the books, and, as we saw on Election Night, the results are very similar to what occurred a year earlier in the 2022 midterm elections.

Most of the political pundits are calling this election year a victory for Democrats despite having an unpopular president in office, while others cite the abortion issue as a continuing turnout driver, which also benefits Democrats. Both statements are true, but perhaps the more definitive underlying pattern is that the incumbents, just as they did in 2022, again reign supreme.

In 2022, 55 of the 56 US senators and governors who ran for re-election won. In the US House elections, 98.1 percent of incumbents who ran for re-election were successful. On Election Night, we saw two more incumbent governors win again.

Governors Andy Beshear (D) and Tate Reeves (R) in Kentucky and Mississippi, respectively, were re-elected with similar five percentage point margins. Polling in the two states suggested a closer result for both incumbents, but each was favored to win.

The Virginia situation is a bit different. Largely due to new court-imposed redistricting maps that radically changed the complexion of most districts, voters elected Democratic majorities in both houses of the legislature. It is inconsistent to rate the Virginia results as incumbent-oriented because we saw roughly one-third of all districts run without incumbents, and most of those office holders who did seek re-election found themselves in new districts vastly different from the one in which they were originally elected.

Democrats will now have at least 21 of 40 seats in the Virginia state Senate and 52 of 100 in the House of Delegates. The party division margin differences yield no change in the Senate, while Democrats converted at least four seats in the House.

While it’s difficult to overlay an incumbent victory matrix across the Old Dominion legislative elections, it is not unusual to see a state that has become reliably Democratic over the past two decades to again vote for that party’s candidates in the 2023 elections. Therefore, the fact that the state’s favored party over the course of time again performed better is consistent with the incumbent voting pattern seen elsewhere.

The abnormal facet of the incumbent-oriented elections we have witnessed in 2022 and now 2023 is that the issue polls consistently show voters certainly believing the country is headed down the wrong track, with similar feelings regarding most states. The state right direction/wrong track questions, however, are not as intensely negative as at the national level.

Yet, despite the recorded discontent, voters return to their respective polling places and almost unanimously re-elect the incumbents. This again suggests that the Republican campaign message machine needs an overhaul. It is clear that their campaign themes and approaches are not driving enough voters to support the GOP candidates in the most hotly contested races.

Once numbers become finalized, we can better understand the results. Because the 2023 vote tabulations verified the pattern set in 2022, it is likely this precursor favors incumbents at large, and more specifically the Democrats, to have another positive election year in 2024 despite what today’s issue polls may currently be projecting.

Senate

Michigan: Ex-Rep. Meijer Announces — Former one-term Congressman Peter Meijer (R), who was defeated for renomination in 2022, announced Monday that he will join the open Michigan US Senate field. The move had been expected for weeks, but is a curious one, nonetheless. It is hard to see a victory path for Rep. Meijer since he couldn’t get enough conservative support to defeat his ’22 GOP challenger, John Gibbs. Gibbs would then go onto lose the general election to now freshman Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids).

The top Republican contenders for the party’s Senate nomination are former US Rep. Mike Rogers and retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig. It is possible that Meijer’s entry could actually help Rogers, since Craig and Meijer will likely both appeal to the more centrist element of the Republican voter base. If so, this will help Rogers unite the conservatives behind his candidacy and propel him to the nomination. Whoever wins the Republican primary will almost assuredly face Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) in the general election.

The open Michigan race is likely to be close, but Democrats will have at least a slight edge in the general election. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is retiring after serving what will be four full terms once the current congressional session concludes at the beginning of 2025.

House

RI-1: Gabe Amo (D) Wins Special Election — Former Biden and Obama White House aide Gabe Amo virtually assured himself of succeeding resigned Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence) when he won the Sept. 5 special Democratic primary. Amo easily defeated Republican Gerry Leonard Tuesday in the special general election. Upon winning the seat, Amo now will be sworn in to the House and serve the balance of the current term.

Rhode Island’s 1st Congressional District is solidly Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+32. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 64.9D – 33.1R. President Biden carried the seat with a 64-35 percent victory margin in 2020. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the seat as the 99th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference — pretty secure. Therefore, there was little doubt as to which candidate would win the special election.

The Amo victory will bring the Democrats back to their full 213-member compliment in the House. The next special election, in UT-2, will be held on Nov. 21. Republican Celeste Maloy is favored to hold resigned Rep. Chris Stewart’s (R-Farmington) seat. Should she win, the House will be restored to its post-regular election division of 222R-213D.

RFK Jr.’s Equal Impact; Casey Maintains Lead in PA; Blake Masters Enters Open Arizona Race; Redistricting Map Struck Down in Georgia; Sarbanes to Retire; North Carolina News

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 30, 2023

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

RFK Jr.: Equal Impact Effect — Before Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his Independent candidacy, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump were generally at parity in national polling, with either contender clinging to a small lead or being deadlocked. We see two new national surveys adding Kennedy to their questionnaire, yet the leader still records the same type of close margins. Dr. Cornel West is included in some polls as another Independent candidate, but it is doubtful that he can qualify for enough state ballots to become a viable factor.

The HarrisX poll (Oct. 16-23; 3,029 US registered voters; online) sees Trump leading Biden and Kennedy, 40-38-18 percent. In what is now an unrealistic head-to-head pairing between Trump and Biden, Trump’s edge is four percentage points.

Suffolk University (Oct. 17-20; 1,000 US registered voters; live interview) sees a similar Biden-Trump-Kennedy 38-37-14 percent split. If the two major party candidates were only running against each other, the Suffolk data finds a 43-41 percent division in President Biden’s favor. Again, with such small margins that don’t greatly change, it appears that Kennedy may be pulling almost equally from both major party candidates.

Senate

Pennsylvania: Sen. Casey Maintains Lead — Franklin & Marshall College again surveyed the Keystone State electorate (Oct. 11-22; 873 registered Pennsylvania voters; live interview & online) as they do several times per year, and while this particular sampling period is long the US Senate ballot test results are consistent with other previously published surveys. According to the F&M data, Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) has a 46-39 percent advantage over Republican former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R). Sen. Casey runs four points ahead of President Biden within the same sampling universe, while McCormick’s support percentage is three points below that of former President Trump.

House

AZ-8: Blake Masters Enters Open Race — As expected when this seat opened, 2022 Republican US Senate nominee Blake Masters announced that he will run for the 8th District seat in the 2024 election. Also in the race is Abe Hamadeh, the Republican attorney general nominee who lost the 2022 statewide race by less than 300 votes. Retiring US Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria), has already endorsed state House Speaker Ben Toma (R-Paradise), but Toma has yet to announce his congressional candidacy.

Masters’ chances of coming through a crowded primary with plurality support are good. The eventual Republican will be a heavy favorite in the general election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates AZ-8 as R+22. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the seat as the 77th most vulnerable district in the Republican Conference.

Georgia: Federal Judge Strikes Down Congressional Map — In a developing story, a federal judge has struck down the Georgia congressional map as a racial gerrymander. The main district in question is Rep. Rich McCormick’s (R-Suwanee) 6th CD. It remains to be seen what steps the state takes. The judge is giving the lawmakers until Dec. 8 to redraw the map.

MD-3: Rep. John Sarbanes (D) to Retire — Nine-term Maryland US Rep. John Sarbanes (D-Baltimore) announced late last week that he will retire from the House after this current Congress ends. In a statement, Sarbanes said, “ … before coming to Congress, I also found great reward in working with nonprofits, volunteering and otherwise contributing to my community. That too is a powerful form of public service. For some time now, I have found myself drawn back to that kind of work — wanting to explore the many opportunities to serve that exist outside of elected office. With that in mind, I have decided not to seek re-election in 2024.”

Sarbanes’ departure will ignite a major Democratic primary for the open seat. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates this seat as D+14. President Biden carried the district with a 62-36 percent margin. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks MD-3 as the 79th most vulnerable district in the Democratic Conference. In a presidential election year, this race will be decided in what promises to be a crowded Democratic primary.

NC-14: Rep. Jackson (D) to Run for Attorney General — As expected, Rep. Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte), saying a Democrat cannot win the newly drawn 14th District, announced that he will not seek re-election and instead is now a candidate for the open attorney general’s position. In a video showing him as a boxer giving and taking punches, Jackson said he is targeting corrupt politicians, big corporations, and organized crime in his run for the top law enforcement job in the Tar Heel State.

As in the nine other Republican districts on the new congressional map, the new 14th that begins in Charlotte and moves west to encompass all or parts of five other counties, will likely elect the GOP nominee. All indications point to state House Speaker Tim Moore (R-Cleveland County) as Rep. Jackson’s eventual successor.

North Carolina: Redistricting Passes into Law; Ex-Rep. Walker Will Run — Both the North Carolina House and Senate passed the new congressional and state legislative maps, thus enacting them into law as Gov. Roy Cooper (D) has no veto authority over redistricting legislation. The map favors Republicans in 10 of the state’s 14 districts.

In Rep. Kathy Manning’s (D-Greensboro) new 6th District, which voted for Donald Trump by a 57-41 percent split according to the Daily Kos Elections statisticians, former US representative and 2022 US Senate candidate Mark Walker (R) announced that he will leave the governor’s race and instead run for this new district. For three terms, Walker represented a similar 6th District. He chose not to run in 2020 after a court-drawn map made NC-6 a heavily Democratic seat that Manning was able to claim.

The Kennedy Factor in Alaska; Maryland Gov. Moore Endorses Senate Candidate; Malinowski’s Response; Candidate Search in PA-10

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 26, 2023

President

Alaska: First Poll with Kennedy — The Alaska Survey Research firm tested the 2024 general election with, for the first time, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the questionnaire as an Independent candidate. Some have been saying that Kennedy on the ballot could force former President Donald Trump below 50 percent, which would jump-start a Ranked Choice Voting round. This could open the door to President Joe Biden winning Alaska even though he would be nowhere close to victory in the initial vote.

According to the ASR data (Oct. 13-18; 1,375 likely Alaska general election voters; online) Trump is leading the field but with just 37 percent support. President Biden follows with 29 percent, while Kennedy draws 17 percent. In an initial test without Kennedy, Trump would lead President Biden 45-37 percent. Therefore, both candidates would yield 8 percent support to Kennedy. The key here for Trump is making sure he does not fall below the 50 percent threshold, and this poll suggests he would be in danger of doing so if Kennedy continues to remain relatively strong.

Senate

Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D)

Maryland: Gov. Moore Endorses Senate Candidate — Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D) involved himself in what promises to be a hotly contested open Democratic primary to replace retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D). Maryland’s voting history suggests that Sen. Cardin’s successor will be found in the Democratic primary, as Republicans will have little chance to win a Maryland statewide race in a presidential election year.

Gov. Moore announced that he is supporting Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks for the party nomination. Her chief opponent is US representative and Total Beverage chain founder, Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac). The Moore endorsement is a signal to the African American community, the base of the state’s Democratic Party, that they should unite behind Alsobrooks.

Maryland’s black population accounts for just under 32 percent of the state’s residents. In a Democratic primary, however, their size is significantly larger.

Rep. Trone has already put just under $10 million of his own money into his campaign account and is currently advertising in targeted markets. According to Trone’s latest campaign finance report, 98 percent of his money comes from him.

House

NJ-7: Ex-Rep. Malinowski Responds — Former two-term US Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) responded to a statewide op-ed piece asking him to challenge the man who unseated him in 2022, freshman US Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield).

While Malinowski has not publicly ruled out running again, his response to the piece suggests that he will not become a candidate. His quote: “I am very happy in my life right now and looking forward to the next challenge, not backward.” Currently in the Democratic primary are former State Department official Jason Blazakis and progressive left activist Sue Altman.

PA-10: New Democratic Leader — According to a new Public Policy Polling Democratic primary survey of Pennsylvania’s competitive 10th District (Oct. 16-17; 547 PA-10 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text), the respondents are looking for a new nominee to challenge US Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg).

The poll suggests that retired news anchor Janelle Stelson holds an early 33-20 percent edge over 2022 Democratic nominee and Harrisburg City Councilwoman Shamaine Daniels. In November, Daniels held Rep. Perry to a 54-46 percent victory. Her 27 years on the air in south-central Pennsylvania provides her with a substantial district-wide name identification advantage.

Expect this race to again be competitive, but Rep. Perry begins as the favorite for re-election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates PA-10 as R+9. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the seat as the 37th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

Polling Projects Electoral College Win for Trump; California Senate Jockeying; New Jerseyans Want Menendez Out; New Candidate in MN-2; GOP Candidate Emerges in NC

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 23, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump

Trump’s Numbers: Polling Finds 291 Electoral Votes — According to a series of concurrently conducted independent polls, former President Donald Trump today would lead in enough states to provide him with 291 electoral votes, or 21 more than required to unseat President Joe Biden. Morning Consult, polling for Bloomberg News in various targeted states, projects Trump to leads in Arizona (+4), Georgia (+5), North Carolina (+4), Pennsylvania (+1), and Wisconsin (+2).

Last week, Emerson College also found Trump holding an advantage in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Simultaneously, the Marketing Resource Group saw Trump running seven points ahead in Michigan, but the more current Morning Consult/Bloomberg data shows the two candidates tied before the Wolverine State electorate. It is these aforementioned states that will make the difference nationally.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., now running as an Independent candidate, was not tested in the MC/Bloomberg survey series.

Senate

California: Sen. Butler Out; LA Anchorwoman I — Appointed California Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) announced yesterday that she will not run for a full term next year. Despite having more than a year in office after replacing the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), the early March 5 all-party jungle primary allowed her little time to begin competing against Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), Katie Porter (D-Irvine), Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) and former baseball great Steve Garvey (R), all of whom have a major head start in fundraising and campaign organization.

Los Angeles news anchor Christina Pascucci (D), on the other hand, became a late entry into the crowded US Senate contest, but said she is getting into the race “ … because I have to fight for what I believe is possible for California and for this country.” Pascucci describes herself as a “moderate Democrat.”

New Jersey: Constituents Favor Menendez Resignation — A newly released Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of the Garden State electorate (Aug. 6-14; 813 New Jersey adults; live interview & text) finds that 70 percent of the respondents, including 71 percent of Democrats, believe that indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D) should resign his seat even without him having a chance to defend himself in court.

So far, Sen. Menendez has been adamant about not resigning over the federal charges that accuse he, his wife, and several associates of engaging in bribery. While the senator is not forced to leave office, polls such as this clearly suggest that he will be a severe underdog in a June Democratic primary race against US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) and potentially several others.

House

MN-2: New Republican Candidate — The GOP leadership is making another attempt to unseat Minnesota US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), but this time it is likely they will have a new standard bearer. Former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab announced his congressional candidacy late last week. In the past two elections, Rep. Craig has defeated military veteran Tyler Kistner but with an average vote percentage of only 49.5 percent. Republicans hope a fresh face will be able to get the extra support to top the three term House incumbent.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates MN-2 as D+1, while the Daily Kos Elections site ranks the southeast Minnesota congressional district as the 14th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

Governor

North Carolina: New Republican Candidate Emerges — Attorney Bill Graham (R), who says he will invest at least $5 million of his own money into his statewide race, announced his candidacy for the state’s open governor’s position. Many in the Republican establishment doubt that the early front runner, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, can win a protracted campaign, which is sure to feature a barrage of attack ads portraying him as an extremist.

The leading Democratic nominee is Attorney General Josh Stein, but he only won the 2020 re-election campaign with 50.1 percent of the vote. Therefore, the Republicans will be competitive in the governor’s race regardless of who they nominate. Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Polls: Trump Up in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin & Michigan

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 16, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump moves ahead of President Joe Biden in three key state polls.

Key States: Trump Emerges in New Polling — Three of the more important states that will largely determine the 2024 presidential outcome reported new polling data late last week. The results are significant. Three polls from two different pollsters projected former President Donald Trump as surprisingly leading in the critical battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Emerson College surveyed voters in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all between the Oct. 1-4 period. MRG Research, polling for the Detroit News (Oct. 2-8; 600 likely Michigan voters), tested the Michigan electorate.

For the first time since he carried each of these states in the 2016 presidential election, these polls show that former President Donald Trump holds a general election edge over President Joe Biden in all three states. EC projects Trump holding leads of 45-36 percent in Pennsylvania and 42-40 percent in Wisconsin. In Michigan, MRG finds Trump posting a 42-35 percent advantage over President Biden.

Reviewing the national Electoral College map, in order to flip the 2020 election results Trump must convert states holding at least 35 electoral votes. The smallest number of in-play states equaling that particular electoral vote number is two: Georgia (16 electoral votes) and Pennsylvania (19).

If Pennsylvania does not come through for Trump, then a combination of Georgia (16), Arizona (11), and Wisconsin (10) voting Republican would also deliver the former president a victory. These examples, of course, presume that all other states vote the same as they did in 2020.

While it is mathematically conceivable for Trump to win the national election without carrying one of the aforementioned Great Lakes states, from a practical context, when considering recent historical voting patterns, it is virtually impossible. Realistically, if Trump is to turnaround the 2020 election outcome, he must carry at least one of these three domains.

That is why this polling release is worth noting.

Recently, we have been seeing issue polling that clearly favored Republicans on most issues, especially key ones such as economy, border security, immigration, and crime. The party’s positive numbers regarding the handling of those issues, however, were not translating into increased votes for Republican presidential candidates on ballot tests within those same surveys. Now, we see the candidate numbers beginning to turn.

The Emerson College Pennsylvania poll (Oct. 1-4; 430 registered Pennsylvania voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects Trump topping Biden by a large nine-point margin, 45-36 percent, well beyond the polling margin of error. Their Wisconsin survey (Oct. 1-4; 532 registered Wisconsin voters; multiple sampling techniques) also posts Trump to a lead, but a much smaller one, 42-40 percent.

Across Lake Michigan, MRG Research tested the Wolverine State electorate (Oct. 2-8; 600 likely Michigan voters) and their ballot test between Biden and Trump showed the the former president leading by a seven-point margin — 42-35 percent.

What is notable is that the Emerson Pennsylvania poll also tested the state’s budding Senate race between three-term incumbent Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) and Republican businessman David McCormick. Here, the same polling sample turns back toward the Democrats.

In answering the Senate ballot test question, the respondents recorded a 41-33 percent split for Sen. Casey, a margin again well beyond the polling margin of error. This result is also stronger for Casey than the first publicly released poll of the Pennsylvania Senate contest, that from Quinnipiac University (Sept. 28-Oct. 2; 1,725 registered Pennsylvania voters). In the Q-Poll, Sen. Casey’s lead was 50-44 percent.

The fact that the polling sample would return to the Democratic column for the Senate race gives greater credence to the presidential number and suggests that this survey is no outlier.

In Emerson’s Wisconsin poll, the interviewers asked an interesting question. They queried both the Trump and Biden supporters whether there was anything their candidate could do that would change their vote. The results were almost identical.

A total of 50 percent of the Trump voters and 51 percent of the Biden voters said their support was solid, and nothing that either man might do between now and election day would change their vote. Conversely, 24 percent of Trump voters and 23 percent of Biden supporters suggested they could change their minds based upon their chosen candidate’s actions.

These responses tell us that both men have equally fervent support, but also gives each plenty of prospects with whom to potentially convince. We can expect Wisconsin to remain in toss-up mode all the way through the final vote.

These surveys mark the first time in this election cycle that Trump has posted such leads in these three critical battleground states. With still more than one year remaining until votes are cast much will happen to change how people will perceive the candidates, thus influencing their vote. For now, the present topsy-turvy political atmosphere seems to be favoring former President Trump.

Republicans Coalesce in IL-17; Alabama’s New Congressional Map; Baird Rumors in Indiana False; Crowded Field in PA-10; Kentucky Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 9, 2023

House

Illinois Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Moline) / Photo provided by Eric Sorensen for Illinois campaign

IL-17: Republicans Coalesce — Republicans plan to target Illinois’ 17th District as a conversion opportunity in the next election. It has been the site of two close electoral contests, and Republicans tend to do better in western Illinois during presidential election years. Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Moline) is the freshman incumbent who will be seeking a second term.

Republicans are coalescing around retired circuit judge Joe McGraw, who will soon officially announce his candidacy. Paving the way for the McGraw announcement, businessman Ray Estrada (R) who has been running for the seat himself, said that he will no longer pursue his candidacy. This likely paves the way for an easy McGraw Republican primary run.

The 17th, which stretches to form a craggy letter “C” from Rockford to the Quad Cities to Galesburg, Peoria, and finally Bloomington, rates a D+4 classification from the FiveThirtyEight data organization. The Daily Kos Elections site rates IL-17 as the 26th most vulnerable seat in the 213-member Democratic Conference.

Alabama: Court Releases New Map — The court-appointed special master returned the new congressional map to the three-judge panel late last week, as directed. Not surprisingly, the new map will feature a Republican district that stretches from Mississippi to Georgia along the Florida border that pairs Reps. Jerry Carl (R-Mobile) and Barry Moore (R-Enterprise). As a result, a new 2nd District has been created, designed to elect the choice of the dominant minority community, in this case African Americans. Democrats will gain one seat in the Alabama delegation as a result of this new plan.

IN-4: Rep. Baird to Seek Re-Election — A couple weeks ago, reports were forthcoming from Indiana that 4th District US Rep. Jim Baird (R-Greencastle) was planning to retire and announce that just before the candidate filing deadline expired in order to give his son, state Rep. Beau Baird (R-Greencastle), the inside track toward winning the Republican nomination. That rumor is false. Congressman Baird announced late last week that he will run for a fourth term next year and is heavily favored for re-election.

PA-10: More Join Already Crowded Field –– As expected when she announced her retirement from the newsroom, television anchorwoman Janelle Stelson (D) on Thursday formally declared her intention to run for Congress. She joins what is becoming a crowded Democratic field, however, as each of the candidates are vying for the right to challenge six-term US Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg). Also in the Democratic primary are 2022 congressional nominee and Harrisburg City Councilwoman Shemaine Daniels, Carlisle School Board member Rick Coplen, and international business consultant John Broadhurst.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates PA-10 as R+9. The Daily Kos Elections site rates this central Pennsylvania seat as the 37th most vulnerable seat in the 222-member Republican Conference.

Governor

Kentucky: Cameron Gaining Against Gov. Beshear — WPA Intelligence conducted their second September poll of the Kentucky governor’s race for The Club for Growth organization. The survey (Sept. 25-28; 500 likely 2023 Kentucky general election voters; live interview) found Gov. Andy Beshear (D) leading Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R) by a 48-42 percent count. In their early September survey, WPA found a 48-40 percent Beshear advantage.

The slight movement suggests that Cameron has a chance to gain further support as the campaign enters its critical final month. The election is scheduled for Nov. 7.

Trump Nips Biden in New Poll; Close Pennsylvania Senate Race; McCarthy Retirement Talk Rumblings; Hoyer Faces More Opposition

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 6, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Pennsylvania: Trumps Nips Biden in New Q-Poll — Quinnipiac University tested the Keystone State electorate (Sept. 28-Oct. 2; 1,725 Pennsylvania adults; 1,470 registered Pennsylvania voters; 759 self-identified Democratic registered voters; 711 self-identified Republican registered voters; live interview) and sees former President Donald Trump moving into a slight lead over President Joe Biden in this critical swing state. The ballot test yields Trump a 47-45 percent edge.

Both candidates have upside-down favorability scores. President Biden registers 39:57 percent favorable to unfavorable. Trump’s index is a similar 40:56 percent. The president’s job approval ratio is 41:55 percent positive to negative. Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes and is one of the four states (Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin are the others) that will likely decide the presidential campaign’s final outcome.

Senate

Pennsylvania: Q-Poll Shows Close Race — The aforementioned Pennsylvania Quinnipiac Poll (see presidential post above) also tested the state’s budding Senate race between three-term incumbent Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) and Republican businessman and 2022 Senate candidate David McCormick (R).

Here, we see a closer than expected early result with Sen. Casey holding only a 50-44 percent lead over McCormick. The surprising data point in this survey is McCormick already carrying the Independent voter segment by a percentage point, 45-44 percent.

Sen. Casey holds a 48-31 percent job approval score. With 57 percent of the people saying they need to know more about McCormick, he records a 25:17 percent favorability index. By contrast, Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) holds a strong 53-27 percent job approval rating, but Sen. John Fetterman (D) finds his ratio in upside-down territory at 41:48 percent favorable to unfavorable.

House

CA-20: McCarthy Could Retire — Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) conceded that he will not again run for his former House speaker position and said he will not resign, but left unanswered whether he will seek another term in Congress. The California candidate filing deadline is Dec. 8 for the March 5, 2024, all-party jungle primary, so the congressman does not have much time to decide. Should he opt for retirement, it is likely that several of the state legislators whose districts overlap his Central Valley CD will enter what would be an open race.

State Sen. Shannon Grove (R-Bakersfield), a former Minority Leader, represents 89 percent of the 20th Congressional District, thus putting her in strong position to be McCarthy’s successor. The state assemblyman with the most overlap is Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield), who represents 58 percent of the McCarthy territory.

CA-20 is the safest Republican district in California with a FiveThirtyEight data organization rating of R+31. The Daily Kos Election site ranks CA-20 as the 146th-safest seat of the 222-member Republican Conference.

MD-5: Dem County Chairman to Oppose Rep. Hoyer — Charles County Democratic Party chair Lenny Proctor earlier this week became the fifth member of Rep. Steny Hoyer’s (D-Mechanicsville) party to announce a primary challenge against the former majority leader, a 44-year congressional veteran who appears primed to seek election to yet another term.

The crowded field, also including Prince Georges County Environmental Director Angela Crooms, public affairs specialist Sean McKelvey, two-time congressional candidate McKayla Wilkes, and Democratic activist Joey Thompson, will split the anti-Hoyer vote, thus allowing him to again win easily.

Hoyer will have little trouble winning the Democratic primary, and then the general election in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates at D+28. The Daily Kos Election site ranks MD-5 as the 109th-safest seat of the 213-member Democratic Conference.