Tag Archives: impeachment

Pennsylvania’s McCormick Announces for Senate; Retired Police Chief Craig to Announce Candidacy; Anti-Impeachment Rep. May Resign; IL-17 Battle; No Re-Election Run for Rep. Baird; Primary Clash Evolving in Maine; Chaffetz Declines to Run

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 25, 2023

Senate

Pennsylvania: Republicans Get Their Man — David McCormick, the former CEO of the Bridgewater Associates hedge fund who lost to Dr. Mehmet Oz by just 950 votes in the 2022 Pennsylvania US Senate race, announced late last week that he is returning next year to challenge Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D). Though he faces an uphill battle, McCormick’s presence gives the Republicans a credible candidate with whom to challenge the three-term incumbent.

Though Pennsylvania decidedly leans Democratic, it is one of the top targeted states in the presidential election. While that will mean more focus on former President Donald Trump throughout the general election campaign, it also means that McCormick will be the beneficiary of more party resources being spent on organization and voter turnout operations. At this point, Sen. Casey must be rated a clear favorite for re-election, but this contest is now a race to watch.

Retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R)

Michigan: Another Candidate to Announce — According to the Politico publication, retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R) will announce his US Senate candidacy at the beginning of October. Craig had filed to run for governor in 2022 but failed to return the proper number of valid petition signatures, thus disqualifying him.

Assuming this report is true, Craig will enter an Aug. 6 Republican primary against the favorite for the nomination, former Congressman Mike Rogers, and Michigan Board of Education member Nikki Snyder who was the first candidate to announce. The winner will then likely challenge Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) who is favored to win the Democratic nomination.

House

CO-4: Rep. Buck Faces Potential GOP Challenge, May Resign — Rep. Ken Buck (R-Windsor), who has been critical of the House Republican leadership for moving to an impeachment hearing against President Joe Biden, may resign his seat. Apparently, he is talking to both MSNBC and CNN about developing a contractual relationship.

Additionally, as a direct result of his latest Republican-on-Republican attacks, Rep. Buck may have drawn a potential GOP primary challenger. State Rep. Richard Holtorf (R-Akron) filed a congressional exploratory committee to assess his chances against Rep. Buck in the expansive eastern Colorado district. The 4th District is safely Republican (R+26 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization) and encompasses most of the Colorado territory north and east of the Denver metropolitan area.

IL-17: Former Local Judge to Run for Congress — Former Circuit Judge Joseph McGraw (R), who resigned from the bench in July igniting speculation that he would run for Congress, has filed an organizational committee with the Federal Election Commission. He would join a field that includes businessman Ray Estrada and farmer Scot Crowl. The eventual Republican nominee will then challenge freshman Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Moline) in a heavily gerrymandered district that begins in the city of Rockford, meanders west to capture the Illinois side of the Quad Cities, then back east to the cities of Galesburg, Peoria, and Bloomington.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+4. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 51.1D – 44.0R. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks IL-17 as the 26th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic conference. Republican Esther Joy King twice ran here, losing a competitive 2022 battle to Sorensen by a 52-48 percent count.

IN-4: Rep. Baird Reportedly Won’t Run for Re-Election — The local Indiana blog Howey Politics is reporting that US Rep. Jim Baird (R-Greencastle) is planning to retire in 2024 but may time his announcement to block other Republicans from challenging his son, state Rep. Beau Baird (R). The 4th District, located north and west of Indianapolis, is safely Republican. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+33. The Daily Kos House overview ranks IN-4 as the 59th safest seat in the Republican conference.

Now that local media reports are already covering this story, the element of surprise has been lost. Therefore, potential candidates wanting to run will now be ready to file in case Rep. Baird does not.

ME-2: Republican Primary Developing — Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, which has delivered an electoral vote to Donald Trump both in 2016 and 2020, is rated as the second-most vulnerable seat in the Democratic conference. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+10 yet, and largely thanks to Maine’s Ranked Choice Voting system, Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) has won three consecutive elections here.

With former Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) out of the 2024 picture, Republican leaders were pleased to see state representative and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault (R-Fort Kent) come forward last week to declare his congressional candidacy. Now, Theriault has company. Fellow state Rep. Michael Soboleski (R-Phillips) declared his candidacy, thus creating a Republican nomination battle in the June 18, 2024, state primary. Regardless of who wins the party nomination, ME-2 will be a major GOP target race next year.

Governor

Utah: Ex-Rep Chaffetz Not Likely to Run — Former congressman and Fox News contributor Jason Chaffetz (R) late last week ruled out challenging Gov. Spencer Cox in next year’s Republican primary and also said, while not closing the door on running for Sen. Mitt Romney’s (R) open seat, that the Senate race is “not something I’m actively pursuing.” The political move that he finds most attractive at present is entering the open 2028 gubernatorial campaign when Gov. Cox will be ineligible to seek re-election.

Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez
Won’t Seek Re-Election

By Jim Ellis

Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez (R-Rocky River)

Sept. 21, 2021 — Saying he believes that former President Donald Trump “shouldn’t ever be president again,” sophomore Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez (R-Rocky River) announced on Friday that he will not seek a third term in the House.

Rep. Gonzalez was one of 10 Republicans to support Trump’s second impeachment, and drew a strong Republican primary opponent as a result. Former President Trump responded to Gonzalez’s statement and decision with his own release saying, “1 down, 9 to go,” in reference to those Republican House members who supported removing him from office after the Jan. 6 Capitol invasion.

Gonzalez is the 19th member who will not be on the next election ballot for the US House seat he now holds, including the three vacancies to be filled in special elections. Of the 19, Republicans currently hold 10 seats as compared to nine for the Democrats. This is the first GOP opening with some competitive potential, however, though the Gonzalez decision will likely have a big impact upon the Ohio redistricting process currently under way within the state legislature in Columbus.

Former White House aide Max Miller had been Rep. Gonzalez’s top Republican competitor. Through the June 30 campaign financial disclosure period, Miller had raised just under $1 million ($951,520), but had only $533,153 remaining in cash-on-hand.

Despite Miller’s strong fundraising effort, Rep. Gonzalez still held the upper hand, reporting $1.22 million raised with over $1.5 million in the bank. Therefore, while the Miller challenge appeared formidable, it was not a foregone conclusion that he would have denied Rep. Gonzalez re-nomination had the congressman decided to continue running.

Rep. Gonzalez’s 16th Congressional District begins in the Westlake area to the west of Cleveland and stretches south toward the rural areas southwest of Canton. It then meanders to the northeast around Akron to end in the city of Edinburg.

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Scandal-Tainted Ex-Gov. Eric Greitens Declares for Senate in 2022

By Jim Ellis

Ex-Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens (R)

March 25, 2021 — Former Gov. Eric Greitens, originally threatening to challenge Sen. Roy Blunt in the 2022 Missouri Republican primary, launched his US Senate campaign Tuesday for what is now an open seat. Sen. Blunt’s decision to not seek re-election obviously drastically changes the Missouri political landscape and opens the door for what could be a nasty GOP primary with a potential ending that could jeopardize what should be a relatively safe Republican seat.

Greitens first ran for office as a conservative retired Navy SEAL and author in 2016, coming from behind to win the Republican nomination for Missouri governor against a crowded field.

Cast as an underdog in that year’s general election to then-Democratic Attorney General Chris Koster, polls suggested he would lose from beginning to end. On election night, however, Greitens scored a 51-46 percent upset victory simultaneously with Donald Trump winning the presidency and Sen. Blunt being re-elected in a close fight.

After attaining the governorship, events turned against the fledgling politician. Reports began surfacing that he, as a married man, was having an affair with his hairdresser. Allegations then came forward that he had briefly held her against her will, taking pictures of her in compromising positions and blackmailing her with threats to make the photos public.

Soon after, Greitens was indicted, and largely due to poor relations with legislative leaders in his own party who were even beginning to prepare impeachment articles, it became evident that a year and several months into his term a forthcoming resignation appeared inevitable. He left office on June 1, 2018.

Later, the charges against him were dropped mostly due to prosecutorial misconduct matters that forced the government to forfeit its case. Despite never being convicted, the sordid affair situation can certainly reappear in a new political campaign. Early analysis suggests that a Greitens victory in the Republican primary could cause the party to potentially lose the seat in the 2022 general election.

The primary situation could be exacerbated if the GOP field becomes crowded as is usually the case in an open race for a seat under the party’s control. Those reported to be considering the Senate race are state Attorney General Eric Schmitt, and US Reps. Ann Wagner (R-Ballwin/St. Louis County) and Jason Smith (R-Salem), among others. Such a split field could allow Greitens to again win the party nomination with only a plurality.

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Impeachment Data: Many Polls
Show Georgia Numbers Improving

By Jim Ellis

Jan. 9, 2020 — The Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy company surveyed the Georgia electorate to test President Donald Trump’s approval rating after being impeached in the House and, as in several other places, his Peach State standing appears slightly better today than it was in the previous year.

Georgia is a critical part of the Trump coalition and one of five base states that must support him if he is to have the necessary vote footing to again win an Electoral College majority. Arizona, Texas, Florida, and North Carolina are the other four entities that voted for the president in close margins back in 2016, are clearly politically competitive today, and must go his way again in 2020.

The Mason-Dixon poll (Dec. 19-23; 625 registered Georgia voters; live interviews) finds the president’s approval ratio within the Georgia respondent group to be 50:46 percent favorable to unfavorable despite being his impeachment. The last time M-D conducted a similar poll, in February of 2018, Trump’s approval index stood at 50:50 percent.

To put his Georgia numbers in perspective, the president’s job approval rating nationally is habitually upside-down. Such is the case today, as the latest daily job approval scores post the president at 40:55 percent (Morning Consult; Jan. 6-7; 2,038 US adults), 48:50 percent (Rasmussen Reports; Jan. 2-6; 1,500 likely US voters), and 44:54 percent (YouGov; Jan. 4-6; 731 registered US voters) positive to negative.

The encouraging Georgia statistical news for Trump is even more significant when considering that the state’s African-American population has outpaced the national black growth rate. It is well known that the African-American segment is the Democratic bedrock vote with near unanimous levels of support for the party’s candidates. The fact that Trump has improved in the face of impeachment and a growing black population means that his standing in Georgia is about as strong as could reasonably be expected considering the tall obstacles before him.

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An Impeachment Casualty in NJ?

By Jim Ellis

NJ-2 Freshman Rep. Jeff Van Drew

Dec. 2, 2019 — There are many moving parts to the impeachment inquiry against President Trump, and not all of the flying political shrapnel will hit the intended target. In some instances, the issue could backfire against a few Democratic members for various reasons.

An example of that involves one of the two Democrats to vote against the impeachment inquiry. Freshman Rep. Jeff Van Drew (D-Dennis Township/Cape May) is a former state legislator, serving in Trenton for 16 years before winning the 2nd District congressional seat last November. He replaced retired congressman Frank LoBiondo (R), who owned NJ-2 for a dozen terms.

Van Drew’s victory was expected because the Republicans failed to field a strong candidate, yet his 53-45 percent margin was a bit underwhelming considering he was rated a general election prohibitive favorite. Furthermore, Democrats converted four Republican districts in this state alone last year, leaving the GOP with just one congressman from New Jersey’s 12 districts.

As a result of Congressman Van Drew not believing sufficient evidence existed against Trump to warrant an impeachment inquiry, local Democrats are now beginning to stir about a potential primary challenge. Such a move might gain legs if the various county Democratic Party chairmen, powerful officials in New Jersey politics, recommend the party endorsement for a candidate other than their incumbent.

The party-endorsed candidate is given preferential placement to the point where opponents are even listed on a different part of the ballot. Therefore, losing the party endorsement, if that were to occur, is particularly damaging to an incumbent.

The political situation here intensified just three weeks ago in the 2019 elections when Rep. Van Drew’s appointed state Senate successor stood before voters who would choose a more permanent replacement. Despite the Democratic candidates within the legislative district running as “Team Van Drew”, they all lost to Republican opponents. Naturally, this does not help the Congressman should he draw a significant Democratic challenge.

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Impeachment in the States

By Jim Ellis

Oct. 9, 2019 — The Civiqs polling firm, as covered in the Daily Kos Elections site, has been testing all 50 states regarding impeachment in a national tracking survey that attracted 150,070 online respondents from May 16 through Oct. 6. The latest numbers suggest that 51 percent of those respondents favor impeaching President Trump, while 45 percent oppose. But, it is in the breakdown of the states’ numbers where the true political story is being told.

Looking at the 50 individual states, it is no surprise that the respondents from almost all of the places that voted for Hillary Clinton support impeachment. But at this point, it appears President Trump has the potential of losing some of his coalition states. Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin all are now leaning toward impeachment.

Whether a person would or would not vote for an impeached president is not necessarily indicative about how their state would vote regarding a 2020 national candidate, but it does appear to be a reasonable gauge.

Arizona, a normally reliable Republican state but one that appears to be moving leftward, has 11 electoral votes. The Civiqs poll finds the Arizona respondents supporting impeachment 50-46 percent. The Michigan sample favors the impeachment inquiry, 51-45 percent. The Wolverine State has 18 electoral votes. Wisconsin, with 10 votes, also sees its Civiqs respondents currently favoring impeachment by a tight 49-47 percent margin.

Nevada, a Clinton 2016 state, and Iowa, a Trump state, are in flat ties according to Civiqs’ impeachment track. If the electoral vote count were based upon these results, the presidential election might come down to one state, or could even conceivably evolve into a 269-269 tie.

It is impossible to predict what twists and turns we will see before the impeachment issue is settled, nor can anyone accurate forecast how the electorate will respond. Right now, at least the Civiqs state tracking operation slightly favors the Democratic position on the impeachment question, but most of the margins are tight enough to quickly change.

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The Politics of Impeachment

By Jim Ellis

Sept. 26, 2019 — With the House beginning the impeachment inquiry, it is a good time to overlay the political map regarding those Democratic members who may find themselves in a difficult position as a result of this procedure.

In all, President Trump carried 31 congressional districts that elected a Democratic representative in 2018. In 16 of the 31 CDs, 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney also won. Additionally, the president carried 13 of the 31 districts by more than six percentage points.

To impeach, the Democratic leadership would need a minimum of 218 votes, and at the outset all but one will have to come from the majority side. Republican-turned-Independent Justin Amash (R-MI) left the GOP earlier in the year over the impeachment issue, so he is a likely “yes”, giving the leadership a little more cushion.

Turning back to the 2016 election, Trump carried Amash’s 3rd Congressional District with 51.6 – 42.2 percent victory margin, meaning this would likely be a tough vote for him, too, since he presumably will appear on the ballot as an Independent or minor party candidate.

In the end, however, should a vote proceed to the House floor, 15 of the 31 members listed below will more than likely have to vote for impeachment in order for the motion to carry.

With Trump being popular in their districts, 10 of the succeeding members with 2020 competition saw the President’s 2016 margin exceed six points. Three more with potential but as yet undeveloped competition, also saw Trump exceed a base six percentage point margin.

Therefore, one less than half of the following members will need to vote to impeach if the resolution is to move to the Senate.

ST-DIST INCUMBENT PARTY TRUMP % CLINTON % ROMNEY %
AZ-1 O’HALLERAN, TOM D 47.7 46.6 50.4
GA-6 McBATH, LUCY D 48.3 46.8 60.8
IA-1 FINKENAUER, ABBY D 48.7 45.2 42.5
IA-2 LOEBSACK, DAVID D 49.1 45.0 42.7
IA-3 AXNE, CINDY D 48.5 45.0 47.2
IA-3 AXNE, CINDY D 48.5 45.0 47.2
IL-14 UNDERWOOD, L. D 48.7 44.8 54.2
IL-17 BUSTOS, CHERI D 47.4 46.7 40.6
ME-2 GOLDEN, JARED D 51.4 41.1 44.4
MI-8 SLOTKIN, ELISSA D 50.6 43.9 51.1
MI-11 STEVENS, HALEY D 49.7 45.3 52.3
MN-7 PETERSON, COLLIN D 61.8 31.0 53.9
MN-2 CRAIG, ANGIE D 46.5 45.3 49.0
NH-1 PAPPAS, CHRIS D 48.2 46.6 48.6
NJ-2 VAN DREW, JEFF D 50.6 46.0 45.4
NJ-3 KIM, ANDY D 51.4 45.2 47.2
NJ-5 GOTTHEIMER, JOSH D 48.8 47.7 50.9
NJ-11 SHERRILL, MIKIE D 48.8 47.9 52.4
NM-2 TORRES SMALL, X. D 50.1 39.9 51.7
NV-3 LEE, SUSIE D 47.5 46.5 48.7
NY-11 ROSE, MAX D 53.6 43.8 47.3
NY-19 DELGADO, ANTONIO D 50.8 44.0 45.9
NY-22 BRINDISI, ANTHONY D 54.8 39.3 49.2
OK-5 HORN, KENDRA D 53.2 39.8 59.2
PA-8 CARTWRIGHT, MATT D 53.3 43.7 43.4
PA-17 LAMB, CONOR D 49.4 46.8 51.7
SC-1 CUNNINGHAM, JOE D 53.5 40.4 58.3
UT-4 McADAMS, BEN D 32.4 40.4 67.2
VA-2 LURIA, ELAINE D 48.8 45.4 50.5
VA-7 SPANBERGER, A. D 50.5 44.0 54.6

Red percentage figures: Denote districts Romney also carried