Tag Archives: New York

Pennsylvania GOP Senate Primary Still Undecided, Moving to Recount; House News Includes NY, PA, TX

By Jim Ellis — May 27, 2022

Senate

Dr. Mehmet Oz (left) leads former hedge fund CEO David McCormick by 902 votes.

Pennsylvania: Recount Ordered — It’s now been more than a week since the primary election here and still no declared winner in the Republican Senate primary. Pennsylvania election authorities have already ordered election officials in the state’s 67 counties to begin the inevitable recount. Officials know the final unofficial count, which could be released as early as today or tomorrow, will be within the half percent that triggers an automatic recount.

At this writing, the numbers show Dr. Mehmet Oz leading former hedge fund CEO David McCormick by 902 votes from more than 1.3 million ballots cast. The deadline for military, overseas, and provisional ballot reception was Tuesday. It is being reported that this is the closest primary in Pennsylvania’s modern political era.

House

NY-16: New Challenger for Rep. Bowman — Westchester County Legislator Catherine Parker (D) announced her intention to challenge Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers) in the upcoming Aug. 23 Democratic primary. Another Westchester Legislator, Vedat Gashi (D), is already in the race. Parker says the new district lines move Gashi’s political base outside the district’s confines, hence her becoming a candidate. Irrespective of this activity, Rep. Bowman is favored for re-nomination and re-election in the new 16th CD.

NY-17: Two Republicans Oppose Rep. Maloney — After state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi (D-Bronx) announced her Democratic primary challenge to Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Sean Patrick Maloney (D-Cold Spring), two Republicans have jumped into the new 17th District campaign, state Assemblyman Matt Lawler (R-Pearl River) and Rockland County Legislator Charles Falciglia.

The new 17th is rated D+7 through the FiveThirtyEight data organization’s calculations. While the seat clearly leans Democratic, Rep. Maloney has attracted a great deal of attention since he announced against freshman Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-Westchester County) instead of running just north in what is now the open 18th CD. For his part, Jones is now running in the southwestern Manhattan/Brooklyn new 10th District.

PA-17: New Poll Already Shows Toss-Up — The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is already out with a new poll of the open PA-17 CD taken before the May 17 primary (May 9-10; 494 likely PA-17 voters; live interview & text). They project a 44-41 percent lead for their new nominee, election law attorney Chris Deluzio (D) over former local official Jeremy Shaffer, the new GOP nominee. When the DCCC first started releasing polling several years ago, the data was heavily slanted in their candidates’ favor, thus forfeiting credibility. In the last several years, however, their results have been closer to the mark, but still slightly slanted. Therefore, a DCCC poll finding Deluzio only ahead three points is a clear indication this race already begins in the toss-up realm.

Texas: TX-24, TX-15 — Two electoral contests from Tuesday remain uncalled and are very tight. In the 28th District, Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) holds only a 177 vote run-off lead over opponent Jessica Cisneros (D). The Secretary of State’s released results show all precincts reporting, meaning ancillary votes arriving in the mail and provisionals are likely the only ballots remaining. A recount will probably be requested, but based upon the trends of where the remaining ballots lie, it appears that Rep. Cuellar’s slim advantage will likely grow.

Staying in South Texas, the Democratic 15th District runoff between businesswoman Michelle Vallejo and attorney Ruben Ramirez leans toward the former by just 23 votes. The voter pool at this point, however, is just over 12,000 individuals, an extremely low participation total. The final ballots can clearly tip this race to either candidate. The eventual winner will face Republican 2020 nominee Monica de la Cruz. The general election campaign will likely begin as a toss-up. If the Democratic decision is drawn out over a long period, de la Cruz would be staked to a key advantage in the early general election period. The FiveThirtyEight rating for TX-15 is EVEN.

Poll Shows Kelly Strong in Ariz;
Lee Declared Winner in PA Primary

By Jim Ellis — May 26, 2022

Senate

Sen. Mark Kelly (D) strong in new polling

Arizona: Sen. Kelly Strong in New Polling — Democratic pollster Blueprint Polling ran a survey of the Arizona electorate (May 12-16; 608 registered Arizona voters; live interview) and tested the top three Republican candidates against Sen. Mark Kelly (D). They find the senator leading each member of the trio by almost identical substantial margins. Against Attorney General Mark Brnovich, Sen. Kelly posts a 50-33 percent advantage. Venture capitalist Blake Masters similarly trails, 49-32 percent. Former solar energy company owner Jim Lamon is in the same realm, behind the Senator, 48-34 percent.

North Carolina: Rep. Budd Takes Early Lead — East Carolina University released the results of their post-primary statewide survey (May 19-20; 635 registered North Carolina voters; SMS text) that shows US Rep. Ted Budd (R-Advance) opening the general election campaign with a substantial 47-39 percent advantage over former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (D) as the two battle in the open Senate campaign.

President Biden fares poorly on the job approval question. He is a full 20 points upside down in North Carolina, 35:55 percent favorable to unfavorable. Republicans, according to this survey, are up 47-44 percent on the generic question. Incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R) chose not to stand for a fourth term.

House

IL-6: Rep. Casten Leads in Paired Dem Race — An internal Garin Hart Yang Research Group poll conducted for Illinois Rep. Sean Casten’s (D-Downers Grove) campaign (May 12-16; 402 likely IL-6 Democratic primary voters; live interview) finds the poll sponsor developing a substantial lead over his paired Democratic incumbent opponent, freshman Rep. Marie Newman (D-La Grange). The GHY results give Rep. Casten a 36-27 percent lead heading toward the June 28th primary. According to the poll analysis, Rep. Casten has an all-encompassing edge over Newman including men, women, progressives, liberals, and moderate/conservatives.

NY-17: Dem State Senator to Challenge DCCC Chair Maloney — Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Sean Patrick Maloney (D-Cold Spring) continues to draw fire from his own party for entering into a paired campaign with freshman Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-Westchester County) even though the latter man has moved to the New York City 10th District to seek re-election.

Late Monday, far left state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi (D-Bronx), granddaughter of the late ten-term US Rep. Mario Biaggi (D) who was both a decorated police officer and convicted of political corruption and accepting illegal gratuities thus forcing him to spend 26 months of his post-congressional time in prison, announced that she will challenge Rep. Maloney. Biaggi referred to the congressman as a “corporate, selfish Democrat” while criticizing him for the move against Rep. Jones. Sen. Biaggi represents a Bronx/Westchester district in the Senate, but originally declared for the Long Island/Queens open seat of US Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) who is running for governor. Under the new court map and Rep. Maloney’s decision, she is instead launching a Democratic primary challenge for the newly drawn Westchester County anchored 17th CD.

PA-12: Victory Declared — On Monday, we indicated that state Rep. Summer Lee (D-Braddock) was increasing her small lead over lobbyist Steve Irwin in the open Democratic primary but votes remained in a Pennsylvania counting system that seems to be moving only at a glacial pace. Yesterday, Lee was officially projected the winner. As a result, she becomes the prohibitive favorite for the general election over Republican Mike Doyle, and will replace retiring Rep. Mike Doyle (D-Pittsburgh), no relation to the new Republican nominee, from the downtown Pittsburgh anchored district.

And The Landslides Bring It Down

By Jim Ellis — May 25, 2022

Primary Results

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp

Georgia: Gov. Brian Kemp turned back former Sen. David Perdue with an unpredicted landslide 74 percent win in what was clearly the most anticipated race of the evening. While polling showed that the governor would be re-nominated, a huge 74-22 percent vote spread was unforeseen. Considering where Gov. Kemp started after the 2020 election and former President Donald Trump piling on him up until the day of this vote, Kemp’s win was extraordinary within a primary turnout of just under 1.2 million GOP voters, the size of which has not been previously seen.

Also scoring big was Herschel Walker in the US Senate Republican primary. He won with more than 68 percent of the vote and now advances to face Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) in the general election. Sen. Warnock had only minor opposition in the Democratic primary and captured 96 percent of the 713,000-plus Democratic votes that have been recorded.

In the 7th Congressional District Democratic incumbent pairing contest, Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) scored a huge 63-31 percent victory over freshman Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-Suwanee). The two incumbents became paired when the Republican map drawers decided to make the new 6th District safely Republican, thus forcing McBath into the adjoining 7th CD.

Alabama: Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville), who former President Trump pulled back from endorsing because, at the time, it was viewed his campaign was going nowhere, rebounded to capture second position (29.2 percent) in the open US Senate Republican primary and advance to the June 21 runoff election. The first-place finisher is former Business Council of Alabama President & CEO Katie Britt (44.7 percent). Both defeated retired “Black Hawk Down” pilot Mike Durant (23.3 percent), whose self-funded campaign fell short of the mark in what was an expensive three-way race.

In the contested Republican gubernatorial primary, Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) won re-nomination with 54 percent of the vote against eight Republican opponents. Here, too, GOP turnout was much higher than the Democrats’ — over 645,000 voters compared to 168,000. In both Georgia and Alabama, the Trump endorsements clearly lacked the punch we have seen in the other early primaries.

Arkansas: Sen. John Boozman turned back three Republican challengers to win his re-nomination outright with 58 percent of the vote. All four GOP US House members were also re-nominated, though 2nd District Rep. French Hill (R-Little Rock) posted a surprisingly low 58.5 percent.

The open governor’s race produced no surprise. Former Trump press secretary and daughter of ex-Gov. Mike Huckabee, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, won a landslide Republican nomination with 83.2 percent of the vote. She will easily replace term-limited Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) in the autumn election.

MN-1 Special Primary: The Minnesota special congressional primary to begin the replacement process for the late Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R-Blue Earth/Rochester) is also undecided. The Republican side now features a two-way battle between former state Rep. Brad Finstad (38.0 percent) and state Rep. Jeremy Munson (36.8 percent) with 88 percent reporting. The Finstad lead is 427 votes, which may or may not stand up as the final counting process proceeds.

On the Democratic side, former Hormel company CEO Jeff Ettinger won the party nomination with 64.3 percent of the vote over seven opponents. The eventual nominees will square off in a special general election on Aug. 9, a date concurrent with Minnesota’s regular primary election. Republican turnout so far surpasses the Democratic participation rate by almost a 2:1 margin, 35,330 to 18,392.

Texas: The Texas results featured a crushing defeat for the Bush family, as two-term incumbent Attorney General Ken Paxton swamped Land Commissioner George P. Bush, son of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, with a 67.2 – 32.8 percent margin. Paxton will now face attorney Rochelle Garza who won the Democratic runoff with 62.9 percent of the vote.

There are two unresolved congressional races at this writing. In one of the South Texas seats, veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) leads attorney Jessica Cisneros by just 177 votes with 94 percent of the expected vote recorded. Most of the outstanding vote appears to come in Cuellar-favorable counties, so it is more likely that he survives a very close primary and runoff set of elections.

In the contested open 15th District, in what could well become the most hotly contested general election in the Lone Star State, the Democratic runoff is still a long way from being decided. Candidates Michelle Vallejo and Ruben Ramirez are only 23 votes apart with just 50 percent of the counting reported. This contest could require quite a bit of time to decide. The eventual winner will face the 2020 Republican nominee, Monica de la Cruz, who easily won re-nomination outright back on March 1.

Moving to the open Dallas-anchored 30th District, State Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) recorded a 60.6 percent runoff win to capture the party nomination in the safely Democratic seat. She will succeed retiring US Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Dallas) in November. Johnson has represented the area in Congress for the past 30 years.

House

NY-19: Rep. Delgado to Take Oath for Lieutenant Governor; Will Resign Today — US Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-Rhinebeck) will officially be sworn in as the state’s new lieutenant governor later today. Resigning the congressional seat just before taking the oath of office allows Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) to schedule the special election to replace Delgado concurrently with the Aug. 23 congressional primary. The political parties will choose their respective nominees, meaning there will be only one election to fill the balance of the congressman’s current term. The new member then could seek a full term in the new 19th CD, which will be different in configuration to the current pre-redistricting seat.

Governor

Michigan: Top GOP Candidate Facing Disqualification — Media reports surfacing from Michigan are indicating that several Republican candidates, including polling front-runner James Craig, the former Detroit Police Chief, may fall short of presenting 15,000 valid registered voter petition signatures to qualify him for a ballot position. According to the Michigan Bureau of Elections, 9,879 of Craig’s signatures were invalid for various reasons, leaving him well short of the 15,000 minimum number.

Another gubernatorial candidate, businessman Perry Johnson (R), is in similar position. The Michigan governor’s race is one of he premier statewide campaigns in the country this year, so with Craig potentially being ousted as a candidate, that’s a major developing story.

Pennsylvania Ballot Count Goes On; Ballot Issues in Oregon; Redistricting News

By Jim Ellis
May 24, 2022

Senate

Pennsylvania ballot

Pennsylvania: Related Court Ruling Could Add Votes — A three-judge federal panel sitting in the capital city of Harrisburg issued a ruling Friday on a Lehigh Valley case that relates to the current vote counting situation. The judicial action mandated the counting of mail ballots where no date appears on the carrier envelope. PA ballot procedure requires the voter to date the envelope before mailing. Immediately upon the ruling being announced, the Dave McCormick for Senate campaign sent a letter to all 67 county chief election officials reiterating the decision. The Dr. Mehmet Oz-Dave McCormick race is down to a lead of 1,070 votes for the doctor, suggesting that any new ballots added to the mix could theoretically help McCormick. It is unclear when we will see a final count publicized.

House

OR-5: Counting Stalled — Oregon’s 5th District ballot counting has ground to a halt because of a major malfunction in one of the district’s anchor areas, Clackamas County. Due to a reported bar code error on the printed ballots, election officials are having to record the votes of every ballot individually, punching a new ballot for each with the correct bar code. Hence, only 57 percent of the expected vote has been reported.

Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Canby) is trailing badly, 60-40 percent in the Democratic primary, to former local city manager Jamie McLeod-Skinner. The congressman’s base is Clackamas County, but it appears, according to votes currently recorded there, that he won’t likely have enough support there to fully overcome his opponent’s large early advantage. If Schrader does lose, he will be the third House incumbent who fails to secure re-nomination, joining Reps. David McKinley (R-WV) and Madison Cawthorn (R-NC).

PA-12: State Rep Nearing Victory — One of the other Pennsylvania races that was too close to originally call was the open 12th District Democratic primary. Though she has not yet been officially projected the winner, state Rep. Summer Lee (D-Braddock) has increased her small lead to 737 votes of more than 94,000 ballots cast. Her main opponent is lobbyist Steve Irwin, and Lee’s lead may now be too wide for him to overcome. The eventual Democratic nominee becomes the prohibitive favorite in the general election and will replace retiring Rep. Mike Doyle (D-Pittsburgh) from the downtown Pittsburgh-anchored district.

Redistricting

Florida: Congressional Districts Still Unclear — Legal wrangling among judges imposing and then lifting and then re-imposing stay rulings regarding the Florida’s congressional map may be decided this week at the appellate court level. It is increasing possible, however, that the state Supreme Court will become the final arbiter should the Republicans’ motion to fast-track the maps to the high court be granted. Many argue that fast tracking the maps is the only way to give candidates adequate time to campaign in districts with definable boundaries prior to the Aug. 23 primary election. Most of the objections pertain to eliminating the majority black 5th District of Rep. Al Lawson (D-Tallahassee) that extends from Tallahassee to Jacksonville.

New York: Congressional Districts Enacted — Steuben County Supreme Court Judge Patrick McAllister approved the special master’s congressional maps with some changes, particularly in the Brooklyn area. The special master’s footprint helps Republicans to an extent, cutting their current delegation size from eight to five, which is one better than the Democratic map provided.

The new map does create at least five additional Democratic districts that will be competitive, and pairs Democrats Carolyn Maloney (D-Manhattan) and Jerry Nadler (D-Manhattan) into a new 12th District. Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-Westchester County) will move from his current 17th CD into a new west-side Manhattan 10th District where he will face former NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio and many others in a hotly contested primary. New York’s congressional and state Senate primaries are delayed until Aug. 23. The statewide contests and all other races will be decided in the previously scheduled June 28 primary.

Alabama’s Battle for Second; Conflicting Polls in Missouri;
de Blasio Returns in NY

By Jim Ellis
May 19, 2022

Senate

Alabama Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville)

Alabama: Battling for Second — Emerson College released a new survey for next Tuesday’s Alabama Senate primary, and the results again show that US Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville) has made a competitive comeback after former President Donald Trump rescinded his endorsement because he felt the congressman was running a poor campaign. For the third time, a recent poll shows Brooks rebounding to a virtual tie for the second runoff position.

For the three contenders, former Business Council of Alabama president and CEO Katie Britt, retired “Black Hawk Down” pilot Mike Durant, and Brooks, advancing to a secondary runoff election is a virtual certainty. In Alabama, candidates must achieve majority support to win a party nomination.

The Emerson College survey (May 15-16; 706 likely Alabama Republican primary voters; live interview; interactive voice response system and text) again finds Britt claiming first place with 32 percent, while Durant and Brooks closely follow with 26 and 25 percent, respectively. In other words, the latter two are in an effective tie for the second position. Assuming no one receives majority support Tuesday, the top two finishers will advance to a June 21 secondary runoff election. The Republican nominee then becomes a lock to succeed the retiring Sen. Richard Shelby (R) in November.

Missouri: Conflicting Polls — Former Gov. Eric Greitens (R), who was forced to resign from office due to a sex scandal and is now dealing with abuse accusations from his ex-wife, has catapulted back into the lead according to a new Survey USA poll. The study (May 11-15; 1,412 likely Missouri general election voters; 642 likely Missouri Republican primary voters; 500 likely Missouri Democratic primary voters; online) projects Greitens to a 26-17-11 percent lead over Attorney General Eric Schmitt and US Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R-Harrisonville/Columbia). The Democratic candidates, led by Iraq War veteran Lucas Kunce and philanthropist Trudy Busch Valentine, are all lagging around the 10 percent mark in primary support. All Republicans defeat the Democratic candidates in preliminary general election pairings.

This S-USA poll is a significant change from previous polling and is in direct conflict with the latest Remington Research Group survey taken within the same period (May 11-12; 945 likely Missouri Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system). These results find AG Schmitt with a 29 percent lead over Rep. Hartzler’s 23 percent, and Greitens trailing with 21 percent. The Missouri primary is Aug. 2.

House

NY-10: de Blasio, State Senator Announce — The revised New York congressional map has not yet received final judicial approval, but candidates are starting to make moves in anticipation of this being the active 2022 district plan. Because the map pairs NYC Democratic incumbents Carolyn Maloney and Jerry Nadler, another safe Democratic open seat was created adjacent to the hotly contested 12th CD. The new 10th District will be decided in the Democratic primary.

Yesterday, former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio announced his congressional candidacy, but so did state Sen. Brad Holyman (D-NYC). Assuming the map is approved, this will be a hotly contested primary election that should attract national attention. Because the original congressional map and that of the state Senate were disqualified, the judge postponed the primary election for races in these categories until Aug. 23.

Redistricting

Kansas: High Court Overturns — In April, a Kansas district court disqualified the legislature’s congressional map as a partisan gerrymander. Gov. Laura Kelly (D) originally vetoed the map, but the legislature was able to override her action with two-thirds support in both houses. The Kansas state Supreme Court has overturned the lower court ruling, meaning the original map that puts the state’s 3rd District, in and around Kansas City, into competitive status is back for the 2022 cycle. Two-term Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park) currently represents the district. This seat will again become a 2022 Republican conversion target.

States

Idaho: Ex-US Rep Defeats Incumbent AG — Former Congressman Raul Labrador, who served four terms in the House, will return to elective office. In the Idaho Republican primary, Labrador unseated the incumbent Attorney General Lawrence Wasden by a substantial 51-38 percent result. Prior to his service in Congress, Labrador was twice elected to the state House of Representatives. He ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2018, losing to current Gov. Brad Little, who also won his primary challenge on Tuesday. After leaving Congress, Labrador was elected as chairman of the Idaho Republican Party.

Primary Results in Ohio, Indiana;
An Odd Lt. Gov. Appointment in NY

By Jim Ellis
May 4, 2022

Primaries

Author J.D. Vance, Ohio Senate Candidate

Ohio: Vance, Ryan Move to General — Best-selling author J.D. Vance, armed with an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, won the open Ohio US Senate Republican nomination last night with a 32-24-23 percent victory over former state Treasurer Josh Mandel and state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls). Businessman Mike Gibbons, who spent almost $17 million of his own money on the race, finished fourth with 12 percent, ahead of ex-Ohio Republican Party chair Jane Timken who posted only six percent support.

Polling proved to be accurate. The late race surveys were consistently showing Vance breaking into the lead, and the ballot tests were projecting he would win a close finish over Mandel and Sen. Dolan, which happened.

Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan

For the Democrats, as expected, US Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown) was an easy winner, capturing 70 percent of the Democratic vote from a turnout that was significantly lower than the party performance in the most recent 2018 midterm election. Thus, Vance and Ryan now advance into what should be a competitive general election.

Turning to Cleveland, which hosted the most competitive Democratic congressional primary, freshman Rep. Shontel Brown (D-Warrensville Heights/Cleveland) easily turned back former state senator and 2020 Bernie Sanders for President campaign national co-chair Nina Turner by a landslide 66-34 percent margin. The two ran against each other in the 2021 special election that first elected Rep. Brown.

In the Toledo-anchored 9th District, Iraq War veteran and Trump campaign activist J.R. Majewski (R) claimed the Republican nomination, defeating both state Rep. Craig Riedel (R-Defiance) and state Sen. Theresa Gavarone (R-Bowling Green). Majewski now advances into the general election against the Democratic US House member who has served longer than anyone in her party. Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) was first elected in 1982. This will be a highly competitive general election in a new 9th CD that carries a R+6 rating.

Former Trump White House aide Max Miller (R), armed with the former president’s endorsement, easily won the Republican nomination since incumbent Rep. Bob Gibbs (R-Lakeville) surprisingly decided to retire after filing for re-election. Miller now becomes the heavy favorite to capture the R+14 open seat in the general election.

Staying in the northern Ohio region, the new open 13th District that looks to be playing as an even political domain, will feature a battle between state Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron), who was unopposed in the Democratic primary, and TV commentator and former Miss Ohio in the USA beauty pageant, Michelle Gesiotto Gilbert, who captured the party nomination against six Republican opponents as another Trump-endorsed Ohio candidate. The Sykes-Gilbert contest begins as a toss-up general election campaign.

Indiana: Ex-Sen. Houchin Wins Open Seat GOP Nod — The Hoosier State battle in the southeastern corner of the state to succeed retiring Rep. Trey Hollingsworth (R-Jeffersonville) ended as many predicted. There, resigned state Sen. Erin Houchin, a former congressional aide to ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R-IN), won the Republican primary last night, defeating former Congressman Mike Sodrel and Bronze Star medal winner Stu Barnes-Israel, 37-26-21 percent.

Houchin now becomes the prohibitive favorite in the open 9th District general election. She will face educator Matthew Fyfe who won the Democratic primary but raised and spent less than $50,000 for his primary campaign.

In the northwestern 1st District, US Air Force Reserve Lt. Col. Jennifer-Ruth Green easily defeated former La Porte Mayor Blair Milo, 47-22 percent, to capture the Republican nomination. She advances to face freshman Rep. Frank Mrvan (D-Highland/Gary) who is on the ballot for a second term. The congressman was renominated in an 86 percent landslide.

Governor

Ohio: Gov. DeWine’s Unimpressive Win — Incumbent Mike DeWine successfully won re-nomination for a second term, but with only 48 percent support from within his own party. Had the anti-DeWine voters coalesced behind one candidate, it is now apparent that such an individual may have denied the governor a primary victory. Former US Congressman Jim Renacci scored 28 percent of the vote and farmer Joe Blystone posted 22 percent.

For the Democrats, Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley easily defeated former Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley with 65 percent of the vote. Whaley carried all but eight of the state’s 88 counties, including nipping Cranley in his home county of Hamilton. Whether or not Mayor Whaley can force Gov. DeWine into a tight November contest remains to be seen, but she did exhibit strength within her party while the governor’s performance among Republicans was clearly disappointing.

House

NY-19: Rep. Delgado Chosen as Lieutenant Governor — Yesterday, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) chose US Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-Rhinebeck) as her new lieutenant governor. Delgado replaces her first choice, Lt. Gov. Brian Benjamin (D) who was indicted for bribery and forced to resign. The selection of Rep. Delgado is an interesting one in that the appointment creates another vacancy in the US House and forces an additional special election. Currently, four Republican and one Democratic House seats are vacant for various reasons.

The Upstate 19th District may undergo significant change when the new congressional maps are court drawn later this month. The move to choose a House member is curious in that it creates further uncertainty for the Democrats now that their 22D-4R map has been disqualified as a partisan gerrymander. The current 19th District is rated R+4, while the re-drawn district on the rejected map rates D+4. Under a new draw, this seat will almost assuredly become a top Republican conversion target. Delgado was first elected to the House in 2018.

Vance on the Move Up in Ohio; Kemp Leads in Georgia While McKee Trails in Rhode Island; Redistricting News

By Jim Ellis

May 3, 2022:

Senate

Author J.D. Vance, Ohio Senate Candidate

Ohio: Vance Continues Upward Swing — A pair of ending polls were released late last week as the Ohio Senate candidates move toward today’s primary election. Fabrizio Lee & Associates survey (April 25-26; 800 likely Ohio Republican primary voters) and Emerson College (April 28-29; 885 likely Ohio Republican primary voters) both see author J.D. Vance forging into the lead.

FL&A, polling for the Protect Ohio Values PAC, posts Vance to his largest lead of the campaign, 31-19-12-12-8 percent over former state treasurer, Josh Mandel, businessman Mike Gibbons, state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls), and ex-Ohio Republican Party chair Jane Timken, respectively. Emerson College sees a similar division, but with Vance holding a much smaller edge, 24-22-18-14-7 percent over Mandel, Dolan, and Gibbons, with Timken again trailing behind. It has become clear that both Vance and Dolan have upward momentum, while Gibbons and Timken have lost their earlier political steam. Mandel continues to poll relatively well but appears unable to expand his base of support.

The numbers are close enough that any of the current top four candidates, meaning Vance, Mandel, Dolan, and Gibbons could win the nomination vote.

Governor

Georgia: Gov. Kemp Takes Commanding Lead — Survey USA largely confirms the University of Georgia poll that found Gov. Brian Kemp (R) establishing a firm lead in his battle against former US Sen. Davide Perdue, who former President Donald Trump endorses. The S-USA poll (April 22-27; 2,000 Georgia adults; 1,587 registered Georgia voters; 559 likely Georgia Republican primary voters; online) posts Gov. Kemp to a strong 56-31 percent advantage, suggesting that he would win the Republican nomination outright on May 24. Should all candidates be held under the majority mark, however, the top two would advance to a July 26 runoff election.

The general election ballot test gave Gov. Kemp a 50-45 percent edge over former state House Minority Leader and 2018 gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams (D).

Rhode Island: Gov. McKee Trailing — A Lake Research Partners survey for the Nellie Gorbea gubernatorial campaign was released on Friday (April 11-14; 600 likely Rhode Island Democratic primary voters; live interview) and the results project Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee as falling behind Secretary of State Gorbea as the candidates move toward the late Sept. 13 Democratic primary. The ballot test posts Gorbea to a 30-24-10 percent edge over Gov. McKee and ex-Secretary of State Matt Brown. All other candidates fell below the 10 percent threshold. Gov. McKee ascended to his position in March when then-Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) resigned to accept her appointment as US Commerce Secretary.

Redistricting

New York: Deadlines; Primary Moved — Steuben County Surrogate Court Judge Patrick McAllister, who first declared the New York congressional and state Senate maps unconstitutional in reference to the New York constitution, now has the responsibility of drawing the new plans. He has appointed Dr. Jonathan Cervas of the Institute of Politics and Strategy at Carnegie Mellon University as the special master who will prepare the maps for judicial review. He was given a May 16 deadline to submit the plans, and the court has set May 20 as the date to publicly announce the final maps for the 2020 election cycle.

Additionally, the judge moved the date of at least the congressional and state Senate primary from June 28 to Aug. 23. The legislature now has the opportunity of moving the races not affected by the congressional and state Senate redistricting maps to join those who are now scheduled for Aug. 23. If the legislators take no action, New York will have two primary dates this year.

States

Georgia: Sec of State Race Runoff Bound — As mentioned above in the Georgia governor’s section, Survey USA conducted a statewide Peach State poll. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R), who was at the focal point of the state’s post-election voting controversy, has captured the lead in the Republican primary ballot test, but with just 31 percent. While enjoying an 11-point lead over US Rep. Jody Hice (R-Greensboro), Raffensperger is well short of reaching the 50 percent mark in order to clinch the nomination. Therefore, the most likely scenario is he and Rep. Hice will advance to a July 26 runoff election.

Southern incumbents who are forced into secondary votes typically fail to finish on top, so even if he places first on May 24, Raffensperger will likely be regarded as an underdog for the run-off election.