Tag Archives: Rep. Andrew Garbarino

New York Rep. Kathleen Rice
Won’t Seek Re-Election

By Jim Ellis

New York Democratic Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-Garden City)

Feb. 17, 2022 — Four-term New York Democratic Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-Garden City) announced Tuesday, on her 57th birthday, that she will retire from Congress. Saying, “I have always believed that holding political office is neither a destiny nor a right. As elected officials, we must give all we have and then know when it is time to allow others to serve,” the congresswoman stated in her retirement release.

Prior to her election to the US House in 2014, Rice served as Nassau County District Attorney for 10 years after being a member of the prosecutorial staff. Rep. Rice is the 30th Democrat to not seek re-election to the House. The total number of open seats now rises to 51, when counting the open Democratic and Republican districts, and the seats created through reapportionment and redistricting from the various states.

The Rice retirement creates a fourth open seat in the NY delegation, and she is the fifth Empire State member to leave the House at the end of the current term. Rep. Tom Reed (R-Corning) announced his retirement early in the session, but his 23rd District is not technically an open seat because Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-New Hartford) has chosen to run there since her 22nd District was combined with retiring Rep. John Katko’s (R-Syracuse) CD to make a new Democratic seat.

Three of the state’s four open seats appear on Long Island. In addition to Rice’s 4th District, the 1st and 3rd are also open because Reps. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) and Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) are both running for governor. This means that freshman Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-Sayville) will be the most senior Long Island member in the next Congress.

While redistricting changed Rep. Zeldin’s 1st District into a more Democratic-friendly seat, Rep. Garbarino’s south shore Long Island seat became more Republican. Overall, the four Long Island districts needed to gain more than 148,000 new residents to meet the New York per district population goal of 776,971 individuals, or an average of adding just over 37,000 people per CD.

Though three of the four LI seats are constructed to elect a Democrat, the margins are not so strong as to eliminate competition. In wave Republican election years, and 2022 may be such, these open seats will be in play.

According to the FiveThirtyEight data operation, Rep. Zeldin’s 1st District moves from a R+10 to a D+6. Dave’s Redistricting App projects the composite Democratic vote to be 57.0 percent as compared to just 41.0 percent for Republicans. President Biden would have carried the new 1st, which moves east to west from the Hamptons to Bethpage State Park, by a 10.8 percent margin.

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Redistricting Boom Hits

New York 2022 redistricting map. (Click on map to go to FiveThirtyEight.com’s interactive map to see breakdown of each Congressional district.)


By Jim Ellis

Feb. 2, 2022 — The redistricting boom that political observers were awaiting has hit. The New York legislature unveiled their new congressional map, and akin to what the Democratic leadership passed in Illinois, the Empire State plan decimates the Republicans just as expected.

As we will remember, New York lost one congressional seat in national reapportionment (by just 89 people statewide) thereby reducing the delegation size to 26 seats. The current 27-district map yields 19 Democrats and 8 Republicans. The new map is projected to reduce the GOP contingent to just four seats.

Starting on Long Island and knowing that Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) is leaving his 1st District to run for governor and understanding that the four districts covering the island are a cumulative 148,780 people short of the per congressional district quota of 776,971 residents, means major differences for these seats.

The map drawers brought the 1st District further west, the only thing they could do to capture the number of needed new people, and as a result were able to turn this R+10 district according to the FiveThirtyEight statistical site into a Biden +10.8 percent seat according to an analysis in the Washington Post.

Note that because the New York presidential election was so lopsided, largely because the Trump campaign never tried to become competitive, using just the 2020 presidential numbers to project voter history is likely slanted even more distinctly toward the Democrats. Once more analyses come into the public domain, we will be better able to pinpoint the partisan trend in each new district.

The 1st District draw makes Rep. Andrew Garbarino’s (R-Sayville) 2nd much redder. His CD, designed to now follow the open 1st District’s borderline to the south, would register as a Trump +14.3 percent district as compared to the previous R+8 calculation from FiveThirtyEight.

The plan would then improve both Rep. Tom Suozzi’s (D-Glen Cove) open 3rd District (Biden +14.2 percent) as it moves further into Queens, and Rep. Kathleen Rice’s (D-Garden City) 4th CD. The latter district would record a 12.1 percent Biden performance, up from the 538 total of D+9.

All of the New York City Democrats would again retain safe seats. The big change would come in the Staten Island-Brooklyn district of freshman Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-Staten Island). Her current 11th CD voted for Trump in 2020 by a 10.5 percent margin (538: R+13). Under this plan, the Washington Post rates the newly configured 11th for Biden with a +9.9 percentage point spread. Former Rep. Max Rose (D), who Malliotakis unseated in 2020, is back for a re-match. If this map becomes law, as expected, the 11th District playing field will be greatly altered.

The upstate region also significantly changes. Freshman Rep. Mondaire Jones’ (D-Westchester County) district becomes slightly more competitive, from a D+17 to a Biden +13.3 percent. Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-Cold Spring) would go from representing a district that 538 rated as even between the two parties to a Biden +8.3 percent edge. Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-Rhinebeck) would see his 19th CD strengthen from R+4 to Biden +10.0 percent.

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Rep. Suozzi Announces for
New York Governor

Long Island US Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove)

By Jim Ellis

Dec. 1, 2021 — Turning down NYC Mayor-Elect Eric Adams’ offer of becoming one of the city’s deputy mayors, Long Island US Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) instead announced Monday that he is joining the fast-growing Democratic primary for governor.

Already in the statewide race is the new incumbent, Gov. Kathy Hochul, Attorney General Tish James, and NYC Public Advocate Jumaane Williams. On the Republican side, Long Island Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) is clearly the leading candidate for his party’s gubernatorial nomination, having already clinched the official New York Republican Party endorsement.

This is not the first time Suozzi has run for governor. In the 2006 Democratic primary, ill-fated, then-Attorney General Eliot Spitzer crushed Suozzi, 82-18 percent.

The Suozzi strategy is to take advantage of a crowded Democratic field where the other participants are all campaigning to the left. Therefore, he is calling himself the “moderate, common sense Democrat.” In a plurality election, his strategy has a chance of being successful, but the bigger question may revolve around whether he will have adequate resources to effectively communicate his message to a statewide electorate in order to develop such a fractured winning coalition.

With Rep. Suozzi foregoing re-election, it creates an additional open Democratic US House seat, a number that has grown significantly in the past two weeks, and also potentially alters the New York redistricting process.

Suozzi was first elected to the House in 2016 and twice re-elected, but failed to reach 60 percent in any of his congressional campaigns. Prior to his service in Congress, Suozzi held the Nassau County Executive position for two terms but was defeated when trying for a third. Four years later, in 2013, trying to regain his lost position, Suozzi was again defeated, this time by a strong 59-41 percent margin. Before winning his countywide position, Suozzi was twice elected as mayor of his hometown of Glen Cove, NY.

Suozzi’s 3rd Congressional District sits in Long Island’s center-west sector, hugging the north shore. The four districts that are self-contained on Long Island are a combined 148,780 people short of meeting the per-district population quota of 776,971 individuals in each of the state’s 26 congressional districts.

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