By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 24, 2026
Senate
In every election cycle, a previously overlooked Senate race surprises the political world by becoming highly competitive. In 2024, such a campaign occurred in Nebraska where Independent Dan Osborn became a major challenger to Sen. Deb Fischer (R).
While the Osborn campaign fizzled in the end and Sen. Fischer was re-elected with a six-point margin, the Independent, with Democratic Party support, managed to turn a race that appeared unopposed into a top challenger effort.
Right now, it appears there are three under-the-radar Senate races that could develop, two of which are in the primary cycle.
In Massachusetts, six-term Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) is challenging Sen. Ed Markey (D) in the state’s Sept. 1 Democratic primary. While originally thought that Rep. Moulton was making a strange move — considering Sen. Markey had in 2020 defeated a member of the Kennedy family (then-Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy, III) in the latter’s home state, within their own party, and posted a full 10 percentage point margin — another primary challenge seemed a fool’s errand.
Yet, new polling and fundraising data suggests that the Congressman may become a serious challenger. He is one of more than a dozen Democratic younger office holders or activists challenging an elderly incumbent (Sen. Markey will be 80 years old at the time of the election), and willing to make age a campaign issue.
According to the new Federal Election Commission reports, Rep. Moulton surprisingly outraised the incumbent, $1.051 million to $811,000 during Q1 2026. For the campaign, Moulton also leads Markey in cash-on-hand, $3.3 million to $2.5 million.
Polling, while still favoring the incumbent, suggests the race could close. According to the recently released Suffolk University poll (April 9-13; 500 likely Massachusetts Democratic primary voters; live interview) Sen. Markey holds a 47-30 percent lead. While he clearly posts an advantage beyond the polling margin of error, producing a ballot test where an incumbent is under 50 percent within his own party certainly suggests underlying vulnerability.
The Massachusetts primary campaign still has a long cycle, but the early development suggests we will see some meaningful action.
If there is a developing Republican sleeper Senate race, it may be in Minnesota. The GOP has a media savvy candidate in former national sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya, who for more than a decade was the sideline reporter for NBC Sunday Night Football. Prior to joining NBC Sports, she was a game reporter for ESPN. Originally from Minnesota, Tafoya began her broadcasting career in the Land of 10,000 Lakes, so she has been a well-known figure in the state for decades.
After announcing her candidacy in late January, Tafoya has raised over $2 million for her Senate campaign. She is already the consensus Republican candidate and the two top Democrats, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), are likely headed for a contentious primary that won’t be decided until Aug. 11.
The Flanagan-Craig race is likely to reach a boiling point at the Democratic endorsing convention. Flanagan is favored to win the endorsement, and typically Minnesota candidates do not force a primary after the state party delegates choose their candidate. In this race, however, it is likely that we will see a Democratic primary no matter who wins the official party endorsement. Therefore, the hotly contested primary will allow Tafoya to prepare for the general election and pool her expanding money through the beginning of August.
Only one poll of potential general election pairings has been released and that came in February, soon after Tafoya’s formal announcement. Emerson College publicized their survey (Feb. 6-8; 1,000 likely Minnesota voters; multiple sampling techniques) and found Tafoya trailing Lt. Gov. Flanagan and Rep. Craig by seven and six points, respectively, with neither Democrat reaching 50 percent support.
With great unrest in the state considering the ICE controversy and the Minnesota federal grant fraud investigation that will become a top issue in November, and with Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) running for Governor in what will be a quiet race since the Republicans have little chance, the seeds may be sown for a legitimate general election campaign despite the state’s reliable Democratic voting history.
Six years ago, South Carolina GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham faced a major challenge and saw approximately $145 million spent against him, but he still recorded a 10-percentage point general election victory.
This year, his fight is likely in the Republican primary where businessman Mark Lynch has already put more than $5 million of his own money into the campaign. It is unlikely that this race will develop, but Sen. Graham is taking Lynch seriously. He has already banked $11.6 million for the campaign and is actively advertising throughout the state.
Sen. Graham has issues on his political right, because he has never been a favorite of the MAGA base vote even though he has become an ardent President Trump supporter. Therefore, this is another stealth Senate contest that likely deserves attention in the closing weeks of the primary campaign.