By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 27, 2026
House
San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R)
Survey USA has published fresh data for California’s new 48th CD anchored in San Diego County. This is one of the Republican‑held seats that Democrats substantially re-drew during the state’s redistricting process.
Incumbent GOP Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego) is not seeking re-election. After the Congressman announced his retirement plans, San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R) shifted his campaign from challenging Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano) in District 49 to running for the open 48th.
The switch was strategically logical: the 48th leans more Republican than the 49th, Desmond avoids facing a four‑term incumbent, and the district includes a much larger portion of his current supervisorial constituency.
Dave’s Redistricting App rates the new 48th at 50.6D – 48.7R, a notable shift from the previous version’s 58.3R – 39.8D. Even so, the new draw remains competitive for a Republican candidate.
The latest S-USA survey signals that this seat may be more difficult for Democrats to flip the map drawers originally professed. The poll (April 14-19; 500 likely CA-48 jungle primary voters; live interview & text) shows Desmond leading with 25 percent, followed by another Republican, businessman Kevin O’Neill, at 13 percent. The fact that this study raises the possibility that two Republicans could qualify for the general election is a significant development.
Under California’s top‑two “jungle primary” system, all candidates appear on a single ballot, and the first and second place finishers regardless of party and percentage attained move on to the November general election. With nine Democrats, two Republicans, and one No Party Preference candidate in the race, the Democratic vote could split widely enough for Desmond and O’Neill to finish first and second, thus effectively shutting the Democrats out of the general election.
The leading Democrat, frequent candidate Ammar Campo-Najjar, posts 12 percent support in the Survey USA poll. When combining all candidates by party, Republicans collectively draw 38 percent in the ballot test and Democrats 37 percent. Based on these early numbers, the 48th District appears to be a genuine toss‑up and a contest likely to attract national attention as the cycle progresses.
Republicans would likely be somewhat stronger if Rep. Issa sought re-election, though the advantage would be limited. The new 48th District includes areas the Congressman does not currently represent, particularly a significant portion of Riverside County.
Supervisor Desmond’s district includes the northern portion of San Diego County that falls within the new 48th, including key population centers such as part of the city of Escondido and the San Marcos municipality. The latter entity, in particular, is where Desmond’s presence as the leading GOP candidate provides an advantage. While the current 48th does not include San Marcos – a city of nearly 100,000 residents – the new 48th does, and Supervisor Desmond already represents that community.
The 48th’s Riverside County portion, where none of the candidates from either party hold elected office, is more Democratic-leaning, due in part to the inclusion of the Palm Springs area and several desert communities.
The new California map has been framed as one that could deliver five additional seats to Democrats. However, with Rep. David Valadao’s (R-Hanford) 22nd District actually becoming several points more Republican than the current configuration where he has twice won, and the GOP maintaining at least a competitive chance in District 48 with Desmond, the net gain could conceivably be closer to three seats rather than five.