Tag Archives: Sen. Jon Tester

GOP Presidential Debate Qualifiers; Menendez & Son’s Challenges; Montana Libertarians Change Bylaws

Seven Republican candidates qualified for the second presidential debate. (Fox News graphic)

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 27, 2023

President

Presidential Debate: Seven Qualify — The second Republican presidential debate is scheduled for tonight, and Fox News announced the seven candidates who will participate. With more stringent debate requirements, it was believed that North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and ex-Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR), who both appeared in the first debate, would be disqualified leaving six participants. Former President Donald Trump also qualifies but is again declining to appear. A last minute move from Gov. Burgum, however, allowed him to earn a debate podium spot; Hutchinson failed to do so.

The seven who will be present are: Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), ex-Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, ex-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and Gov. Burgum. Aside from Hutchinson, national commentator Larry Elder and former US Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX) will also not meet the final requirements.

Debate: DeSantis-Newsom Forum Set — Continuing their ongoing public political feud, Florida Gov. DeSantis and California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) have agreed to a date and state for their mutual debate challenge. The event is scheduled for Nov. 30 at a site to be determined in Georgia. Fox News will air the forum that network headliner Sean Hannity will moderate.

Senate

New Jersey: Sen. Menendez Addresses Media; Rep. Kim to Run: — Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) held an indictment response news conference Monday. His statements left little doubt that he intends to fight the charges levied against him and has no intention of resigning his seat.

Some pre-news conference reports were predicting that the senator would announce his campaign for re-election. He did not specifically address his election status, only to say that he intends to remain New Jersey’s senior senator after he is cleared. He asked the Garden State voters to reserve judgment until “all the facts are known.” But Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) isn’t waiting. Kim announced that he will file a Democratic primary challenge against Sen. Menendez.

House

NJ-8: Mayor May Challenge Rep. Menendez — While Sen. Bob Menendez (D) is publicly defending himself over a new indictment brought against he, his wife, and three other associates, freshman Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City), the senator’s son who has defended his father, may be looking at a serious primary challenge.

New Jersey’s 8th Congressional District is solidly Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates it as D+47. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks NJ-8 as the 167th safest seat of the 212-member House Democratic Conference. Therefore, Rep. Menendez’s more significant re-election obstacle is renomination.

Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla (D) confirmed that he is considering launching such a primary challenge. Hoboken, with a population just over 53,000 residents, represents about seven percent of the 8th District’s population but is a considerably larger share of a Democratic primary vote.

States

Montana: Libertarians Change Bylaws — The Montana Libertarian Party has made a significant change to their party bylaws. Beginning immediately, the MLP may now officially endorse a member of another party even if a Libertarian is in the same race. This is significant because the single-digit Libertarian vote has been a thorn in the Republicans’ side since their candidates tend to draw from GOP candidates. This causes certain close races, such as in Sen. Jon Tester’s (D) past campaigns, to allow a Democrat to win with a plurality or small majority support.

Should the Montana Libertarian Party decide to endorse the Republican candidate in the upcoming Senate race and not file their own contender, it would be a plus for the eventual GOP nominee.

Rosendale Leads GOP Primary Poll; Former Michigan Rep Files Senate Exploratory Committee; Another Challenger in NY-3; Afghan War Vet to Return to NC-14 Race

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 5, 2023

Senate

Montana Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive)

Montana: Rep. Rosendale Leads GOP Primary Poll — A J.L. Partners survey released to the Semafor online news site (Aug. 12-17; 418 likely Montana Republican primary voters; live interview) projects two-term Congressman Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) holding a big 55-19 percent lead over aerospace company CEO and retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy (R).

Sheehy is the party-endorsed candidate. He has support from Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Gov. Greg Gianforte (R-MT), and 1st District Congressman and former US Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish).

Both men fare well against Sen. Jon Tester (D). Rep. Rosendale, who lost to Sen. Tester 50-47 percent in 2018, would lead this race 46-42 percent. Sheehy would hold a similar 46-43 percent edge over the senator.

Michigan: Ex-US Rep Files Senate Exploratory Committee — Former Congressman Peter Meijer, who was elected in 2018 but failed to win renomination for a second term in the 2020 Republican primary, has filed a US Senate exploratory committee with the Federal Election Commission. Meijer, however, came far short of saying he would enter the Senate race, only that he remains in a consideration phase.

Former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) is soon expected to enter the Senate race. Michigan Board of Education member Nikki Snyder is the only Republican elected official who has joined the Senate field. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) leads a host of candidates for the Democratic nomination. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is retiring after serving what will be four terms at the end of this Congress.

House

NY-3: Another Republican to Challenge Rep. Santos — The Security Traders Association CEO, Jim Toes, announced that he will join the growing Republican field who are challenging beleaguered Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island) for renomination. Toes becomes the eighth announced Republican candidate, but possibly the most accomplished. A total of six Democrats have declared their candidacies.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NY-3 as D+4, while Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 56.4D – 42.0R. President Joe Biden carried the district 54-45 percent. This is one of several New York US House seats that will be difficult for the Republicans to protect in the 2024 election.

NC-14: 2022 Nominee Likely to Return — Afghan War veteran and 2022 Republican congressional nominee Pat Harrigan (R) is likely to return for another attempt, though the Charlotte anchored 14th District will likely be radically different after the legislature redraws the North Carolina congressional map in the next few weeks.

The redraw will play to the Republicans favor, which likely means that freshman incumbent Rep. Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte) will run for attorney general. This would be good news for Harrigan, but his more difficult election would be in the Republican primary particularly if state House Speaker Tim Moore (R-Cleveland County) draws the seat for himself.

Unusual NH Presidential Poll; Republican Primary Developing in Montana; VA-7 Candidates Coming Forward; NH Governor News

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Aug. 17, 2023

President

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

New Hampshire: New Poll; Unique Info — The new Emerson College survey (Aug. 9-11; 837 registered New Hampshire voters; interactive voice response system, text & online) provides new information not seen in any other similar study.

For example, the results find:

  • Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie moving into second place
  • No candidate but former President Donald Trump landing in double digits
  • Cornel West’s influence level is confirmed at four percent, which appears to come from President Joe Biden’s vote pool
  • Businessman Perry Johnson attracting enough support to be recorded on a poll
  • Former Vice President Mike Pence flirting with last place

It remains to be seen if this survey is an outlier, or if new trends are forming.

House

MT-2: Republican Primary Developing — We reported that Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen (R) filed a congressional exploratory committee in anticipation that Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) will run for the Senate. Now we see State Auditor Troy Downing (R) doing the same.

Both qualify that their interest in the 2nd District seat is present only if Rep. Rosendale foregoes re-election and formally enters the Senate race. Downing has run for Congress before. He entered the 2018 US Senate primary and placed third with 19.1 percent of the vote. Rosendale won the nomination with 33.8 percent, and then lost 50-47 percent to Sen. Jon Tester (D) in the associated general election.

VA-7: GOP Candidates Coming Forward — Political speculation suggesting that Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) will not seek re-election in order to prepare for a 2025 open governor’s race has already encouraged potential Republican candidates to come forward. Several are now testing the political waters for a 2024 run in the politically marginal 7th Congressional District.

Two military veterans — retired Navy SEAL and defense contractor Cameron Hamilton and Iraq War veteran Jon Myers, a retired Marine Corps officer — have both filed congressional campaign committees with the Federal Election Commission. Business consultant Bill Moher and Army veteran Shaliek Tarpley are previously announced Republican candidates.

Should Rep. Spanberger retire, we can expect a very crowded Republican and Democratic primary season. Republicans will likely hold either a nominating convention or what they term as a “firehouse primary” (where only a few polling places are open throughout the sprawling district), while Democrats typically hold a traditional primary. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates VA-7 as a highly competitive D+2.

Governor

New Hampshire: Ayotte Leads in Early Poll — Former US Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) is starting her campaign for governor with a lead according to a new Emerson College poll (Aug. 9-11; 837 registered New Hampshire voters; interactive voice response system, text & online). According to the results, Ayotte would lead Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D) 46-37 percent, and Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (D) by a larger 47-34 percent span.

The poll did not test the Republican primary. At this point, former state Senate president and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse is opposing Ayotte for the Republican nomination and others are expected to enter. Incumbent Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is not seeking a fifth term.

Burgum Qualifies for GOP Debate; Support for Montana Senate Candidate Wans; Democratic Competition in CA-22; Returning Candidate in FL-9

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 27, 2023

President

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R)

Gov. Doug Burgum: Qualifies for GOP Debate — North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum’s campaign team announced that the candidate has qualified for the first Republican debate on Aug. 23 in Milwaukee. Gov. Burgum is showing an uptick in backing from both Iowa and New Hampshire and has attracted enough small dollar contributions and polling support to qualify for a podium on the debate stage.

Gov. Burgum is the seventh debate participant joining former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. Ex-Vice President Mike Pence remains the most well-known candidate who has not yet qualified.

Senate

Montana: Club for Growth Hedges on Support for Rosendale — The Club for Growth leadership several months ago said they would back US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) to the tune of $10 million if he decided to challenge Sen. Jon Tester (D), as he did five years ago. In the 2018 election, Rosendale, then the state auditor, lost to Sen. Tester, 50-47 percent.

Now, CfG president David McIntosh, himself a former Republican congressman, is hedging on such a support level, saying that retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy is an impressive candidate and Rep. Rosendale is needed in the House. Rosendale has long been a presumed Senate candidate but has yet to come forward and formally announce his political plans.

House

CA-22: Democratic Competition — In November, Golden State Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) defeated then-state Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D), 51.5 – 48.5 percent, in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+10. Salas, who many regard as the congressman’s most difficult opponent from the group of candidates he faced during his five victorious federal campaigns, has already announced that he is returning for a rematch. Now, however, further competition looms on the horizon. State Sen. Melissa Hurtado (D-Sanger/Bakersfield) is reportedly preparing to announce for Congress and will enter the March 5, 2024, all-party jungle primary.

While Hurtado’s Senate district covers just over 96 percent of the 22nd Congressional District, she was only re-elected in November by just a 22-vote margin from more than 138,000 ballots cast. Therefore, it appears that Salas should still be favored to advance into the general election against Rep. Valadao.

FL-9: Republican to Try Again — Former state Rep. John Quinones (R), who ran for the 9th District seat in 2012 but lost soundly (63-37 percent) to then-Rep. Alan Grayson (D), is returning to run again in 2024, this time hoping to challenge incumbent Rep. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee). The 9th District, which contains the south Orlando area, was the most over-populated of the 27 Florida congressional districts prior to reapportionment and redistricting. It has 30 percent different territory from when Quinones ran the first time.

Rep. Soto was re-elected to a fourth term in November with a 54-46 percent margin, which was much lower than expected against an opponent who spent less than $600,000. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-9 at a substantial D+16, with a partisan lean calculation from Dave’s Redistricting App of 58.8D – 39.2R.

Blunt Rochester Announces in Delaware; Montana’s Rosendale Way Up; An NV-1 Rematch Shaping Up;
OR-5 Democratic Primary Forming

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 23, 2023

Senate

Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington)

Delaware: Rep. Blunt Rochester Announces — As expected, Delaware at-large US Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington) officially declared her US Senate candidacy. The move became obvious when Sen. Tom Carper (D) announced his retirement in May, and as part of his address encouraged the congresswoman, a former aide and appointee when Carper was governor, to run for the seat.

Rep. Blunt Rochester, first elected in 2016, is expected to have little opposition both in the Democratic primary and general election. The Senate seat will remain in the Democratic column. There could be developing competition brewing for Blunt Rochester’s open House seat, however.

Montana: Rep. Rosendale Way Up in GOP Primary Poll — Public Policy Polling tested the Montana Republican Senate primary (June 19-20; 51 likely Montana Republican primary voters; live interview & text) and sees US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) as the big early leader. According to the ballot test, Rep. Rosendale posts ahead of retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, 64-10 percent. The congressman faced seven different Montana electorates in the past seven elections and won five times.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee leadership would prefer a different candidate since Rep. Rosendale is viewed as part of the far right flank of the Republican Conference and lost to Sen. Jon Tester (D) in the 2018 campaign, but the statewide GOP polling sample propelled him to a huge lead for a potential 2024 Senate race. Thus, whether the national Republican leadership likes it or not, Rep. Rosendale, when he announces for the Senate, must be viewed as the clear favorite to win the Republican nomination. He would then advance into the general election for a re-match with Sen. Tester, the lone Democratic statewide office holder in Montana. This is one of top three Republican conversion opportunities in the nation.

House

NV-1: Re-Match Possibility — In November, financial planner Mark Robertson (R) held Nevada Rep. Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas) to a 52-46 percent re-election victory in a district that had been drastically changed through redistricting. Many, however, viewed the result as a Republican under-performance in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+4.

Whether Robertson gets another chance to oppose Rep. Titus remains a question. He has Republican primary opposition from business consultant Ron Quince and restaurant chain owner Flemming Larsen.

All three Las Vegas Democratic seats have competitive potential. With such a slim House majority and the Alabama racial gerrymandering ruling from the Supreme Court favoring the Democratic position, the Republicans will pursue as many offensive opportunities as possible. Therefore, expect Nevada to become another hotbed of political activity in 2024.

OR-5: Democratic Primary Forming — Two weeks ago, Oregon Metro President Lynn Peterson (D) announced her entry into the Congressional District 5 Democratic primary; Wednesday, state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Happy Valley) filed a committee with the Federal Election Commission to join her as the perceived two top candidates. The winner will advance to challenge freshman Rep. Lori Chavez DeRemer (R-Happy Valley).

The 5th District race will be hotly contested. Chavez-DeRemer defeated Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner by a 51-49 percent margin in November. McLeod-Skinner, a first-time candidate in Oregon but former local office holder in California, had already defeated incumbent Rep. Kurt Schrader in the Democratic primary. She is also a potential 2024 candidate. The district carries a D+3 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization and is categorized as a swing district. This will be a top Democratic conversion opportunity seat and will attract national political attention.

Allred Announces Senate Bid in Texas; No Top-Two Primary in Montana; Justice Leads in WVa.; Maloney Accepts Ambassador Appointment

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 5, 2023

Senate

Texas: Rep. Allred Announces for Senate — As reported earlier in the week, US Rep. Colin
Allred (D-Dallas) was expected to announce a US Senate bid this week, and on Wednesday he released an announcement video to that effect. While Rep. Allred is likely the strongest Democrat the party leaders could recruit to oppose Sen. Ted Cruz (R), scoring an upset win in a Republican stronghold like Texas in a presidential election year will still be a major challenge.

Expect polling throughout the cycle to be closer than the actual ending result. Sen. Cruz has been expecting a tough challenge and is ready for a fight. Several months ago, he took himself out of presidential contention to concentrate fully on his re-election campaign. While Democrats have scored a recruitment victory here, and Texas is likely to now be their top conversion opportunity, Sen. Cruz still must be favored to win re-election.

Montana: No Top-Two Primary — Republican efforts to use the 2024 Montana Senate race as a test case for changing the state’s primary system to an all-party top-two jungle structure have failed. The legislature adjourned with the bill not moving from the state House of Representatives. The measure had previously passed the state Senate, but then was tabled in a state House committee. Another committee attempted to revive the bill, but that effort failed, and the session ended. Therefore, we will see a traditional Montana Senate primary next year.

An enacted bill would have changed next year’s Senate primary structure and only two candidates, presumably Sen. Jon Tester (D) and a Republican nominee, would have advanced into the general election.

From a partisan perspective, the idea was to eliminate the Libertarian Party from the ballot. Typically, these nominees attract about three percent of the vote, most of which is drawn from a Republican nominee. Considering Sen. Tester won the 2018 election with just a three-point margin, the Libertarian vote total did, and could again, prove significant.

West Virginia: Gov. Justice Leads in First Post-Announcement Poll — The co/efficient Republican polling firm tested the West Virginia electorate soon after Gov. Jim Justice (R) formally announced his senatorial campaign. The survey (April 24-25; 974 likely West Virginia general election voters; 753 likely West Virginia Republican primary voters; online) posts Gov. Justice as the leading candidate in the Republican primary, the general election, and in personal approval ratings.

Opposite GOP Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town), Gov. Justice would lead 45-17 percent. Advancing to the general election, the two-term state chief executive would top incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin (D), 43-29 percent. If Rep. Mooney were the Republican nominee, he would trail Sen. Manchin 30-36 percent.

Additionally, Gov. Justice is the only one of the three with a positive favorability index of 49:29 percent. This compares with a poor 27:47 percent favorable to unfavorable rating for Sen. Manchin, and 21:34 percent for Rep. Mooney.

House

NY-17: Ex-Rep. Maloney Accepts Appointment — President Biden announced that he is appointing defeated New York Democratic Congressman Sean Patrick Maloney (D) as the US Ambassador to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which is headquartered in Paris, France. The OECD is comprised of representatives from 38 countries to develop common economic platforms and initiatives.

Maloney, even as chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), was defeated for re-election in 2022. There was some talk that he was considering returning for a re-match with freshman Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River), but this international appointment would seemingly remove him from a political run in 2024. This makes it even more likely that former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D) will declare his candidacy in the 17th District.

We can expect this campaign to become a national congressional battle and one of the keys to determining the next House majority.

Gallego Ahead in Arizona; Montana Senate Race Update; Republican Garcia Draws Opponent in Calif.; First Major Candidate Announces in R.I.

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 13, 2023

Senate

Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego (D)

Arizona: Gallego Leads & Sinema Gains in New Poll — With no Republican as of yet announcing for the 2024 Arizona Senate race, frequent Arizona pollster OH Predictive Insights released their latest Senate poll. The survey (Jan. 31-Feb. 9; 1,000 registered Arizona voters) gives US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) the lead under all configurations. The pollster continues to add former Gov. Doug Ducey to the Republican candidate mix even though he has repeatedly said that he is not running. Therefore, we will eliminate covering polling results that include him.

Rep. Gallego polls between 31 and 34 percent in scenarios that include former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, ex-US Senate nominee Blake Masters, and former governor candidate Karrin Taylor Robson. The Republicans post scores between 24 and 26 percent. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who left the Democratic Party to become an Independent, improves her standing from previous polling. She would take between 19 and 22 percent under the various scenarios.

With a late primary in August 2024, much will happen to develop the ultimate candidate lineup. This poll, as do others, suggest a wide-open three-way race where either Gallego, a Republican, or Sinema ultimately could eventually win. Arizona will once again be at the forefront of the battle for the Senate majority.

Montana: Rep. Rosendale Leads in Primary & General — The OnMessage Republican polling firm released the results of their latest Montana US Senate poll (Feb. 18-21; 600 likely Montana voters with an over-sample of 100 Republicans for GOP primary questions; live interview) and the results provide good news across the board for US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive).

Though no one has announced a Senate bid against three-term incumbent Jon Tester (D), OnMessage tested a hypothetical Republican primary consisting of Reps. Rosendale and Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) along with former Secretary of State Corey Stapleton. For this question, Rep. Rosendale posted a 36-26-6 percent lead over Zinke and Stapleton. Attorney General Austin Knudsen (R), who has also been mentioned as a possible Senate candidate, was not tested.

In the general election, in a reversal of a previous Political Company survey result, OnMessage finds Rep. Rosendale topping Sen. Tester, 46-41 percent. There is no report as to whether the pollsters tested the other candidates singularly against Sen. Tester.

House

CA-27: Rep. Garcia Draws New Opponent — GOP Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) has won three elections in a seat that favors the Democrats against former state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D), but he’s almost certain to see a new challenger in 2024.

Franky Carrillo (D) was falsely imprisoned for 22 years, convicted for a murder later proven he did not commit and was awarded $11 million in compensation after winning a lawsuit against the state of California. Since then, Carrillo has been appointed as a Los Angeles County Probation Oversight commissioner. Last week, he announced that he will run for the US House next year.

It’s clear that the Democrats must change the paradigm against Rep. Garcia, and it remains to be seen if Carrillo is the type of candidate who can alter the partisan flow of this northern Los Angeles County CD against an incumbent who has proven he can draw crossover votes.

RI-1: First Major Candidate Announces — Last week, Rhode Island Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence) announced that he is resigning his seat on June 1 to accept a position with a non-profit organization. While the list of potential Democratic candidates who might declare for the impending special election to be scheduled later this year is long, the first major contender just announced her plans late last week. Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos (D), the former president of the Providence City Council, formally declared her congressional candidacy.

The real political battle for this seat will be fought in the Democratic primary. In a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+32, it is a foregone conclusion that Rep. Cicilline’s eventual successor will be a Democrat. Expect a crowded field and a plurality primary victory that will lead to an easy Democratic special general election win.

Manchin Will Not Run for President; Ramaswamy Announces Presidential Bid; Sen. Tester to Seek Re-Election; Ex-San Jose Mayor Looks to Challenge

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 24, 2023

President

West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (D)

Sen. Joe Manchin: Will Not Run for President — Sen. Manchin (D-WV) made it clear Wednesday that he would not run for president. Rumors had abounded that the West Virginia senator might run for governor or president, both of which he has now dispelled. Previously, on national television, the senator said he will not again run for governor. With Gov. Jim Justice (R) ineligible to seek a third term in the Mountain State and broadly hinting that he will run for the Senate, the door would have opened for Manchin to again run for governor, a position he held from 2005-2010.

A seriously discussed option was for Manchin to run for president on a “No Labels” ticket, possibly even with Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) as his running mate. Now that both running for president and governor are eliminated options, Sen. Manchin will soon opt for re-election to the Senate or outright retirement from politics. The early tea leaves suggest he will seek a third full term.

Vivek Ramaswamy: Announces for President — Venture capitalist Vivek Ramaswamy announced his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination in a move that was anticipated. Ramaswamy, whose personal wealth is estimated to exceed $500 million, is basing his campaign on promoting the free enterprise system and opposing corporate “wokeism.”

While Ramaswamy’s wealth will certainly allow him to run extensive electronic advertising, he is a very long shot to become a top-tier candidate. Still, he is someone worthy of attention.

Senate

Montana: Sen. Jon Tester (D) to Seek Re-Election — Through a Twitter announcement Wednesday, Montana Sen. Jon Tester (D) announced that he will seek a fourth term next year. Speculation about his potential retirement had become relatively intense.

The Democratic leadership needs Sen. Tester to run again in order to increase hope of holding onto the party’s tenuous Senate majority. The Democrats face a 2024 election map that forces them to defend 23 of 34 in-cycle seats, and keeping the Montana seat is no sure thing even with their best candidate.

While the media and the senator himself will continue to use a “moderate,” label to describe Tester, his voting record has moved decidedly to the left during this term and is now a solid leadership vote. Regardless of who ultimately becomes the Montana Republican Senate nominee, we can count on seeing an ideological contrast race being run with the GOP accusing Tester of being out of step with the state’s electorate, and the senator firing back with extremist claims about whomever his Republican opponent is.

House

CA-16 & 18: Ex-San Jose Mayor to Challenge a Democratic Incumbent — Former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D), who was ineligible to seek a third term in 2021, Wednesday said he has informed both Reps. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton; Palo Alto), and Zoe Lofgren (D-San Jose) that he plans to challenge one of the two veteran Democratic incumbents next year. Liccardo says he has polled both Rep. Eshoo’s 16th CD and Rep. Lofgren’s 18th District to assess his chances in what would likely transition into a double Democratic general election.

The 18th CD contains most of the city of San Jose, but Rep. Lofgren responded to Liccardo with a statement that she plans on seeking re-election in 2024. Lofgren, who was first elected in 1994, has been re-elected against light challenges with over 65 percent of the vote ever since. In the 2022 jungle primary, Rep. Eshoo dropped below the 50 percent mark suggesting some vulnerability to a future Democratic challenge.

RFK Jr., Vivek Ramaswamy Heading to NH; Montana’s Tester on Top; Candidate Filing in CA-13

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 15, 2023

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

New Hampshire: Two Interesting Visitors — A pair of individuals are soon making trips to New Hampshire with obvious presidential intentions. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (D), son of the late US senator and Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy and anti-vax proponent, is scheduling public appearances. Should he enter the New Hampshire Democratic primary, we could see some interesting ramifications develop.

Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who runs an investment firm specializing in the healthcare and technology sectors, is a best-selling author and made national news opposing the corporate woke culture and Environmental, Social & Governance (ESG) investing, is also making public appearances in the Granite State. Ramaswamy’s personal wealth is reportedly in the hundreds of millions range, so he will have the assets necessary to deliver a message in many primary states. It is presumed he would enter the Republican primaries.

Senate

Montana: New Poll Gives Sen. Tester Small Leads — The Political Company, a Montana-based survey research firm, just released hypothetical numbers for the state’s upcoming 2024 Senate race, sure to be one of the top such contests in the country. The poll (Jan. 30-Feb. 1; 53 likely Montana general election voters; live interview & text) finds Sen. Jon Tester (D), who has yet to announce his 2024 political intentions, either leading or tied with what would presumably be his top three potential challengers.

The senator’s strongest opponent would be Gov. Greg Gianforte (R), who would begin in a 45-45 percent ballot test tie with Sen. Tester according to the new data. Sen. Tester would post small leads against Reps. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) and Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish). Opposite Rep. Rosendale, the senator’s advantage would be 45-40 percent, while he would fare slightly better against Rep. Zinke at 46-40 percent. None of the three has yet announced they will run for Senate, but Rep. Rosendale is reportedly the most likely to launch a campaign. Gov. Gianforte is also on the ballot for re-election in 2024.

Clearly the state has moved to the right since Sen. Tester defeated Rosendale 50-47 percent in 2018. The fact that he is well below 50 percent against all three men is a clear signal that he will be in a dogfight for re-election should he seek a fourth term. The senator said he will make his decision about running again before the end of March.

House

CA-13: Adam Gray (D) Files 2024 Committee with FEC — California former state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D), who lost the second closest 2022 congressional election — a 565-vote result opposite now freshman-Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) — has filed a new 2024 committee with the Federal Election Commission. Prior to this action, Gray had said little about running again.

Viewed as the clear favorite at the beginning of the ’22 race, Gray failed to win the seat, and even placed behind Duarte in the June jungle primary. On paper, the new 13th District favors the Democrats. The FiveThirtyEight organization rates the seat D+7, while Dave’s Redistricting App scores the partisan lean as 53.7D – 43.9R. At this point, Democrats Phil Arballo, a former two-time congressional contender, retired Army Col. Brad Boyd, and educator Angelina Rosario Sigala have all declared their candidacies. Regardless of who becomes the Democratic finalist, this race will be a top-tier national Democratic conversion target.

Sen. Feinstein’s Cryptic Statement; Montana Sen. Tester’s Timetable; Sen. Casey Clarifies Re-Election Status in Wake of Cancer Diagnosis; Miss. Gov. Reeves Faces Challenger

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Jan. 27, 2023

Senate

California Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D)

California: Sen. Feinstein’s Cryptic Statement — Responding to a large number of Democrats making political plans based upon what they believe surrounds her impending retirement announcement, California Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) made a statement Wednesday that at the very least strings along the people chomping at the bit to run for a new or different office.

The only individual to announce for the Senate so far is Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine), but her move kicked off an array of candidates, six to be exact, already declaring for what they believe will be her open congressional seat, while others openly plan to enter the statewide race.

In a way of saying, “not so fast,” Sen. Feinstein said that she will make up her mind about the 2024 election “in the next couple of months.”

Montana: Sen. Tester’s Timetable — Sen. Jon Tester (D), answering reporters’ questions about whether he will run for a fourth term from Big Sky Country earlier this week, said he would make a decision by the end of the first quarter. Sen. Tester will face a difficult re-election in a state that has turned decidedly more Republican since he was re-elected in 2018. In that year, his victory margin was only 50-47 percent over Matt Rosendale (R) who was subsequently elected to the House in 2020.

Pennsylvania: Sen. Casey Clarifies Re-Election Status — Just after he was diagnosed with prostate cancer, Keystone State Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) indicated that he would be running for re-election once he recovers from his impending surgery. Clarifying his status yesterday, the senator said running will be dependent upon his health once he completes his cancer treatment, but his goal is to run again. Sen. Casey said he is not yet ready to commit to launching another campaign.

House

CA-45: Rep. Steel (R) Draws Different Challenger — Golden State Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County), fresh from a 52-48 percent victory in a new 45th District that contained only 16 percent carryover from the 48th District to which she was originally elected in 2020, has drawn a potentially new opponent for 2024.

Garden Grove City Councilwoman Kim Bernice Nguyen (D), a twice defeated county supervisor contender, announced her congressional candidacy Wednesday in a district that is 41.4 percent plurality Asian and over 72 percent minority. Community College Trustee Jay Chen (D), who held Rep. Steel to her four-point win in a district that contains a five-point Democratic lean according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, is also a potential candidate, but has not yet formally decided whether he will seek a re-match.

Governor

Mississippi: Gov. Reeves Faces GOP Challenge — With the Feb. 1 candidate filing deadline fast approaching for the 2023 governor’s race, incumbent Tate Reeves will not have a free ride in the Republican primary. Dr. John Witcher, who is an anti-Covid vaccination physician, formally declared his candidacy Wednesday. This could be a harbinger to Gov. Reeves getting a stronger GOP opponent, however, such as Secretary of State Michael Watson who has still not ruled out entering the governor’s contest. Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley is the leading Democratic candidate.