Tag Archives: Sen. Dick Durbin

2026 Senate Status

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 13, 2024

Senate

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) / Photo: Center for American Progress Action Fund

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), during a CNN interview, indicated he will make an announcement about whether he will seek a sixth term “after the first of the year.”

Sen. Durbin, now 80 years old, was first elected to the Senate in 1996 after serving seven terms in the US House of Representatives. Should he decide to retire, we can expect to see a crowded Democratic primary form with the winner of the March 2026 primary becoming a definitive favorite to win the succeeding general election.

Though we have yet to see an announced retirement, we have seen a sizable number of Senators indicate they are seeking re-election, along with potential primary challenges forming.

While Sen. Durbin hasn’t announced his plans, several thought to be on the potential retirement list have already said they are running for re-election. Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME), Ed Markey (D-MA), and Jack Reed (D-RI) have publicly stated their intention to seek another term in 2026.

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), while retired from his party leadership post and who is presumed to be retiring in 2026, has not yet publicly stated whether he will run for re-election.

Other retirement prospects who have not yet indicated whether they will seek re-election are Sens. Jim Risch (R-ID), and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH).

Those who have already made public statements confirming they will run in 2026 are Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), who at one time was contemplating entering what will be an open race for Governor, John Hickenlooper (D-CO), Joni Ernst (R-IA), Tina Smith (D-MN), Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS), Pete Ricketts (R-NE), Cory Booker (D-NJ), and Jeff Merkley (D-OR).

We’ve also seen our first 2026 primary challenge announcement. Louisiana state Treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming (R) has declared his intention to challenge Sen. Bill Cassidy in the newly re-instated 2026 Louisiana partisan primary.

At Gov. Jeff Landry’s (R) initiative, a special redistricting session of the Louisiana state legislature late last year passed a bill eliminating the jungle primary system for federal races and several other offices. This means that Sen. Cassidy, who supported the second Trump impeachment, must stand for re-election in a partisan Republican primary with a 50 percent runoff system.

Other potential GOP Senate challengers to Cassidy include Rep. Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette), outgoing Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta, and retiring Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge). Graves was the victim of a court-ordered redistricting map that created a new African American plurality seat which eliminated his current CD.

Speculation is rampant that Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R), who has announced for re-election, will be challenged for renomination, while others being rumored to face primary opponents are Sens. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC). Sen. Tillis has announced he will seek re-election, and it is presumed Sen. Graham will also run for another term.

Two term-limited Republican Governors are said to be considering challenging their state’s incumbent Democratic in-cycle Senator. GOP leaders and activists are encouraging Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) to oppose first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) who has kicked-off his re-election bid. In Virginia, the GOP brain trust is hoping to see Gov. Glenn Youngkin attempt to unseat three-term Sen. Mark Warner (D).

In Kentucky, two-term Gov. Andy Beshear (D) is thought to be a potential Senate candidate irrespective of Sen. McConnell’s plans to either retire or run for an eighth term. Though a reliable Republican state in federal elections, Gov. Beshear would give the Democrats a strong chance of converting the seat regardless of who might be his Republican opponent.

The other incumbents who have not yet declared their 2026 intentions but are expected to seek re-election are Sens. Dan Sullivan (R-AK), Tom Cotton (R-AR), Chris Coons (D-DE), Roger Marshall (R-KS), Gary Peters (D-MI), Steve Daines (R-MT), Ben Ray Lujan (D-NM), Markwayne Mullin (R-OK), Mike Rounds (R-SD), Bill Hagerty (R-TN), Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV), and Cynthia Lummis (R-WY).

As has been extensively reported, we will also see two other soon-to-be appointed Senators seeking to fill the balance of unexpired terms. When Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance resigns to become Vice President and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) is confirmed as the new Secretary of State, Govs. Mike DeWine (R-OH) and Ron DeSantis (R-FL) will appoint replacements who must run in 2026 and 2028 when their respective seats next come in-cycle.

In all, we will see Republicans being forced to defend 22 seats and Democrats only 13, thus reversing the advantage that the GOP held in 2024.

As you can see, the 2026 US Senate cycle is already beginning to feature a great degree of serious competition.

Senator Schiff? Durbin Retirement Announcement? Rep. Mace Considers Political Future; Republican Challenger to Gov. Shapiro?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 12, 2024

Senate

Newly appointed California Sen. Adam Schiff (D)

California: Schiff Takes Office — There is a bit of confusion surrounding California Rep. Adam Schiff being sworn into the Senate before the next Congress convenes. In November, Schiff defeated retired baseball player Steve Garvey (R), 59-41 percent, for the regular term. Yet, Senator-Elect Schiff already has been sworn into office as a Senator. This is because appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) resigned the seat after the election as she promised. Butler was appointed to the Senate to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) who passed away in September of 2023.

Schiff, on Nov. 5, also won the special election to fill the balance of the unexpired term. Because of California’s long election certification period, neither the regular term nor the special election results are yet certified; therefore, Gov. Newsom has appointed now-Senator Schiff during the interim.

Illinois: Sen. Durbin to Make Announcement in January — Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), during a CNN interview, indicated he will make an announcement about whether he will seek a sixth term, “after the first of the year.”

Sen. Durbin, now 80 years old, was first elected to the Senate in 1996 after serving seven terms in the US House of Representatives. Should he decide to retire, we can expect to see a crowded Democratic primary form, with the winner of the March 2026 primary becoming a definitive favorite to win the succeeding general election.

South Carolina: Rep. Mace Considering Primary Challenge — Earlier it was reported that Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), who was just re-elected to a third term, confirmed she is considering entering the open 2026 Governor’s race. She is reportedly also looking at potentially launching another challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham in the ’26 Republican Senatorial primary.

In 2014, Mace, then the first woman to graduate from The Citadel, was one of six Republicans who challenged Sen. Graham, who was then completing his second term. She finished fifth in the field of seven, securing only 6.2 percent of the statewide vote. Sen. Graham won that primary with 56 percent of the vote. While it is clear Mace would attract more support in a 2026 challenge, she would again face an uphill challenge to Sen. Graham who is arguably much stronger with the Republican base than he was in 2014.

Six years later, the Senator faced a major challenge from Democrat Jaime Harrison, who would later become Democratic National Committee chairman. Harrison raised an incredible $132 million in his 2020 race against Graham, but the Senator still prevailed with a comfortable 10 percentage point win. At this early stage of the 2026 election cycle, Sen. Graham must again be considered a strong favorite for re-election regardless of what Republican or Democratic opponent might emerge.

Governor

Pennsylvania: Rep. Meuser Contemplating Gov Race — Pennsylvania Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Dallas/Lebanon), who was just re-elected to a fourth term, confirmed earlier this week that he is considering launching a general election challenge to Gov. Josh Shapiro (D). With Gov. Shapiro enjoying positive job approval ratings and rumored as a potential presidential candidate in 2028, the incumbent will be difficult to dislodge.

Therefore, for Republicans, this race looks like a long shot, so it will be interesting to see if Meuser would risk his safe House seat for a difficult statewide run. To date, no one has yet come forward to declare a gubernatorial candidacy.

Biden Wins Easily; Lipinski Loses

By Jim Ellis

Former vice president and 2020 presidential candidate, Joe Biden (D)

March 18, 2020 — In a night that was originally scheduled to have two full state primaries and two stand-alone presidential contests that would determine if a Democratic candidate could reach majority support on the first ballot, last night’s results proved somewhat anticlimactic.

Voters in Arizona, Florida, and Illinois cast their ballots, with only the latter state conducting its full primary. Ohio, which also had its statewide primary scheduled for yesterday, postponed their vote likely to June 2 because of COVID-19 virus precaution.

As expected, former vice president Joe Biden wrapped up three easy victories, beginning with capturing the Florida primary with a whopping 62-23 percent margin over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) from a Democratic electorate that topped 1.72 million voters. The total includes the early votes, even though the outcome of this stand-alone primary election became a foregone conclusion just after Super Tuesday.

The vote totals were somewhat closer in Illinois, but still a landslide victory for Biden. The former vice president captured 59 percent of the Land of Lincoln Democratic vote as compared to 36 percent for Sen. Sanders. The turnout here was just slightly over 1.5 million, but the entire statewide and district office campaigns were also on this ballot, which helps accounts for what appears to be a fairly large turnout.

In Arizona, the race was much closer, as Biden’s victory margin rather surprisingly dropped to 44-31 percent with approximately 12 percent of the ballots outstanding. The turnout is not expected to reach 600,000 when all the ballots are counted. A quarter of the Arizona electorate voted for one of the also-ran candidates, which compares to 15 percent doing so in Florida and just five percent in Illinois.

Delegate wise, Biden looks to have captured about 159 Florida delegate votes with Sen. Sanders only clinching 60 bound first ballot delegates. The Illinois total projects a 95-60 Biden advantage, while in Arizona the total split looks to be approximately 39-28 if the present pattern continues. Without the Ohio primary taking place, the total delegate universe yesterday was 441, with Biden unofficially clinching 293 of them, or 66 percent of the March 17 bound first-ballot votes.

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2020 Senate Review – Part I

By Jim Ellis

March 25, 2018 — Only nearing the end of March in the off-year, already a great deal of early 2020 Senate action has occurred. Thus, it is a good time to begin reviewing all 34 statewide federal races that will adorn next year’s ballot in a three-part series. Today, we look at the first dozen in alphabetical order:

Alabama – Sen. Doug Jones (D) – From the Republican perspective, this could be the most important race in the country. The GOP must convert this seat in order to provide a better cushion to protect their Senate majority.
The 2017 special election became a debacle for the Republicans that allowed Sen. Jones to unexpectedly slip past politically wounded former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore. Already, Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile) and state Auditor Jim Zeigler (R) have announced their 2020 Senate candidacies. Judge Moore claims to be seriously considering running again, which could again create the same adverse situation that previously plagued the Republicans. Toss-up

Alaska – Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) – At this point, there seems little in the way of opposition developing either in the Republican primary or general election against Sen. Sullivan. Safe Republican

Arizona – Appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R) – Another critically important Senate race that has already featured substantial action. Sen. McSally’s appointment came after her defeat in the 2018 Senate race and she faces a difficult campaign ahead to win the 2020 special election. Whoever wins next year serves the remaining two years of the late Sen. John McCain’s (R) final term. The seat next comes in-cycle for a full six-year term in 2022.
Mark Kelly, a retired astronaut and husband of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Tucson), has already announced his candidacy and will be a major candidate. In early April, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix), whose ex-wife, Kate Gallego, was just elected Mayor of Phoenix in a special election, is expected to enter the Democratic primary. Since Arizona holds a late August primary, a tough Democratic nomination fight would benefit McSally just as her difficult 2018 Republican primary played to Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s advantage. Toss-up

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Illinois Results: Tighter Than Forecast

Primary voters went to the polls in the Land of Lincoln yesterday and the predicted winners performed as expected, but several victory margins were a bit of a surprise.

In the governor’s race, businessman Bruce Rauner, who personally spent lavishly on his own campaign, managed to clinch the Republican nomination but the race proved much closer than polling had indicated. Rauner defeated state Sen. Kirk Dillard, 2010 gubernatorial nominee Bill Brady, and state Treasurer Dan Rutherford by a 40-37-15-7 percent split, respectively, far below what late polling was projecting even though the order of finish was correctly predicted.

Dillard, just as he did four years ago, came on strong at the end and came up just short of placing first. In 2010, he finished only 193 votes statewide behind Brady. Last night, Dillard’s deficit was considerably larger, but he still managed to come within three percentage points of winning the election.
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Primary Time Continues in Illinois Tomorrow

Voters in the nation’s second earliest primary state, Illinois, go to the polls tomorrow to choose their party nominees for the fall elections. Though Texas already held its primaries on March 4, its nomination process is not yet complete because the run-off contests are scheduled for May 27. Since Illinois has no secondary election procedure, all nominations will be finalized tomorrow.

Governor

The most intense race on the ballot is the governor’s campaign, as four Republicans vie for the opportunity to face vulnerable Gov. Pat Quinn, who continues to poll as the nation’s weakest Democratic incumbent.

Businessman Bruce Rauner, spending copious amounts of his own money on television advertising, is leading his three GOP opponents in all polls and poised to claim victory tomorrow night. Three surveys Continue reading >

Illinois Brings Us the First Official 2014 Candidates

Illinois, with its partisan primary scheduled for March 18, became the first state to close its filing period, meaning the state’s 2014 political combatants are now official candidates.

The Illinois macro political picture brings us some interesting asides. First, in the congressional delegation, all 18 US House incumbents are seeking re-election, so the Land of Lincoln will feature no open seat campaigns in 2014. Second, each of the 19 federal office holders (including Sen. Dick Durbin) face general election competition. Third, six of the incumbents are drawing primary opposition, though only one appears even potentially serious at the present time.

Senate

In the Senate race, four Republicans are vying for the right to challenge Sen. Durbin, but only one is an experienced contender. State Sen. Jim Oberweis, who has previously Continue reading >