Tag Archives: Gov. Josh Shapiro

Senator Schiff? Durbin Retirement Announcement? Rep. Mace Considers Political Future; Republican Challenger to Gov. Shapiro?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 12, 2024

Senate

Newly appointed California Sen. Adam Schiff (D)

California: Schiff Takes Office — There is a bit of confusion surrounding California Rep. Adam Schiff being sworn into the Senate before the next Congress convenes. In November, Schiff defeated retired baseball player Steve Garvey (R), 59-41 percent, for the regular term. Yet, Senator-Elect Schiff already has been sworn into office as a Senator. This is because appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) resigned the seat after the election as she promised. Butler was appointed to the Senate to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) who passed away in September of 2023.

Schiff, on Nov. 5, also won the special election to fill the balance of the unexpired term. Because of California’s long election certification period, neither the regular term nor the special election results are yet certified; therefore, Gov. Newsom has appointed now-Senator Schiff during the interim.

Illinois: Sen. Durbin to Make Announcement in January — Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), during a CNN interview, indicated he will make an announcement about whether he will seek a sixth term, “after the first of the year.”

Sen. Durbin, now 80 years old, was first elected to the Senate in 1996 after serving seven terms in the US House of Representatives. Should he decide to retire, we can expect to see a crowded Democratic primary form, with the winner of the March 2026 primary becoming a definitive favorite to win the succeeding general election.

South Carolina: Rep. Mace Considering Primary Challenge — Earlier it was reported that Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), who was just re-elected to a third term, confirmed she is considering entering the open 2026 Governor’s race. She is reportedly also looking at potentially launching another challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham in the ’26 Republican Senatorial primary.

In 2014, Mace, then the first woman to graduate from The Citadel, was one of six Republicans who challenged Sen. Graham, who was then completing his second term. She finished fifth in the field of seven, securing only 6.2 percent of the statewide vote. Sen. Graham won that primary with 56 percent of the vote. While it is clear Mace would attract more support in a 2026 challenge, she would again face an uphill challenge to Sen. Graham who is arguably much stronger with the Republican base than he was in 2014.

Six years later, the Senator faced a major challenge from Democrat Jaime Harrison, who would later become Democratic National Committee chairman. Harrison raised an incredible $132 million in his 2020 race against Graham, but the Senator still prevailed with a comfortable 10 percentage point win. At this early stage of the 2026 election cycle, Sen. Graham must again be considered a strong favorite for re-election regardless of what Republican or Democratic opponent might emerge.

Governor

Pennsylvania: Rep. Meuser Contemplating Gov Race — Pennsylvania Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Dallas/Lebanon), who was just re-elected to a fourth term, confirmed earlier this week that he is considering launching a general election challenge to Gov. Josh Shapiro (D). With Gov. Shapiro enjoying positive job approval ratings and rumored as a potential presidential candidate in 2028, the incumbent will be difficult to dislodge.

Therefore, for Republicans, this race looks like a long shot, so it will be interesting to see if Meuser would risk his safe House seat for a difficult statewide run. To date, no one has yet come forward to declare a gubernatorial candidacy.

Harris Reportedly Narrowing VP Pick; Omar Has Huge Lead in MN-5; GOP Voter Registration Jump in Arizona

Click on image above or here to go to: Bloomberg News story.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 30, 2024

President

Vice President Harris: Reportedly Narrowing VP Pick — Bloomberg News is reporting that presumptive presidential nominee Kamala Harris has narrowed her selection for the 2nd slot on the national Democratic ticket to three individuals (see above): Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Gov. Josh Shapiro (PA) and Gov. Tim Walz (MN). If the report is valid, it means that Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and governors J.B. Pritzker (IL), Andy Beshear (KY), and Roy Cooper (NC) have been eliminated from consideration.

House

MN-5: Rep. Omar’s Huge Lead — It has been a bit surprising that the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s (AIPAC) Super PAC affiliate, the United Democracy Project, which has spent millions of dollars targeting anti-Israel Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Cori Bush (D-MO), has spent nothing against one of their most vociferous congressional adversaries, Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis).

A new poll suggests why there has been so little outside involvement against Rep. Omar or for her top Democratic primary opponent, former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels. This looked like a competitive challenge at the outset considering that Samuels held Rep. Omar to a 50-48 percent renomination victory margin in 2022, but the current data suggests otherwise.

According to Rep. Omar’s internal poll from Lake Research Partners (July 17-21; 400 likely MN-5 Democratic primary voters; live interview) the ballot test projects the congresswoman to be holding a 60-33 percent lead over Samuels. The fact that the incumbent’s lead is so large dissuades opposition involvement since the die appears already cast for the Aug. 13 primary election.

States

Arizona: Latest Registration Figures Reveal GOP Jump — Arizona Republicans have consistently out-registered Democrats over the years, but the latest released pre-primary figures find the GOP posting its strongest margin of the last three election cycles. Arizona also features a large Independent and minor parties’ registration category. It is this latter group that now makes the state so politically close.

According to the Secretary of State’s report, Republicans now claim 35.4 percent of the Arizona registered voters, which is 6.3 points higher than the Democrats’ 29.1 percent figure. The Independent/Other category has the second highest contingent, at 33.9 percent. The R to D split is almost three full percentage points higher when compared to the 2020 election when President Joe Biden scratched out a tight 49.4 – 49.1 percent victory over then-President Donald Trump.

The new registration data gives credence to the Real Clear Politics calculated 6.4 percent average that former President Trump holds over Vice President Harris. The figure is derived from the three cumulative July Grand Canyon State surveys. Arizona continues as one of the most important swing domains in this election cycle.

It’s Now the Harris for President Campaign; Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee Passes Away; Rep. Bacon Posts Small Re-Election Lead in NE-2

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 22, 2024

President

It’s now the Harris for President Campaign — Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

President Biden: Drops Campaign Bid; VP Harris Endorsed — As we know, President Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race Sunday and now the Democrats are faced with the task of choosing a new nominee.

The most logical and practical selection is Vice President Kamala Harris. First, President Biden has already endorsed her, helping to bolster her claim for the position.

Second, one of the main points the president made in favor of staying on the ticket was the 14-plus million people who voted for him throughout the primary voting process. Vice President Harris is the only person who can claim with some legitimacy that the people voting for Biden were also approving her position on the national ticket.

Third, and perhaps most importantly, the money transfer is a critical factor in the transition to a new nominee. The current Biden campaign treasury, some $91.5 million according to the June 30 Federal Election Commission campaign disclosure report, can only be transferred to Vice President Harris. For any other candidate, the Biden money would have to be refunded to donors and then re-contributed to the new nominee.

Vice-President Harris: Considering Running Mates — News reports suggests that Vice President Harris is considering four elected officials as possible replacements for herself as she ascends to the presidential nomination. The first cut of potential running mates appears to feature Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), and three governors: Andy Beshear (KY), Roy Cooper (NC), and Josh Shapiro (PA).

California Gov. Gavin Newsom, whose name is always mentioned as a future presidential prospect, would be eliminated from consideration as Harris’ running mate because both hail from California. As when Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R) was under consideration to be Donald Trump’s vice presidential running mate but in effect was disqualified because he was a resident of the same state as the Republican presidential nominee, such is the situation for Gov. Newsom. The US Constitution’s 12th Amendment stipulates that the president and vice president must reside in different domains.

House

On Friday, 15-term Texas Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) passed away.

TX-18: Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee Passes Away — On Friday, 15-term Texas Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) passed away. Weeks before she announced that she was fighting pancreatic cancer, a disease that she could not overcome. Rep. Jackson Lee was 74 years old, and the third member of the House to pass away during this Congress. The other two were Reps. Donald McEachin (D-VA) and Donald Payne, Jr. (D-NJ).

Texas’ 18th District is heavily Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates it as D+43. The Daily Kos Elections site statisticians rank the seat as the 46th safest seat in the House Democratic Conference. The local Democratic Party committee will choose a nominee to replace Ms. Jackson Lee on the November ballot by Aug. 26. It is unclear at this writing whether Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will call a special election for an individual to serve the balance of the current term.

NE-2: Rep. Bacon Posts Small Re-Election Lead — A Torchlight Strategies poll (July 8-11; 300 likely NE-2 voters) sees four-term US Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) topping state Sen. Tony Vargas (D-Omaha) 46-43 percent in his bid for a fifth term. NE-2 is a swing congressional district and one that carries its own electoral vote in the presidential election. Because it can vote opposite of the state total, the district is one of two seats in the country — ME-2 being the other — that could cause a tie in the Electoral College. Both Maine and Nebraska employ a system where the presidential candidate is awarded two electoral votes for winning the statewide count and one each for the congressional districts that they carry.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NE-2 as R+3, which is different than the 2020 configuration that gave Joe Biden a 22,000-plus vote win over then-President Donald Trump. The previous rating was even. In 2022, Rep. Bacon defeated Sen. Vargas, 51-49 percent, and another tight race between the two men is forecast for November.

Trump Nips Biden in New Poll; Close Pennsylvania Senate Race; McCarthy Retirement Talk Rumblings; Hoyer Faces More Opposition

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 6, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Pennsylvania: Trumps Nips Biden in New Q-Poll — Quinnipiac University tested the Keystone State electorate (Sept. 28-Oct. 2; 1,725 Pennsylvania adults; 1,470 registered Pennsylvania voters; 759 self-identified Democratic registered voters; 711 self-identified Republican registered voters; live interview) and sees former President Donald Trump moving into a slight lead over President Joe Biden in this critical swing state. The ballot test yields Trump a 47-45 percent edge.

Both candidates have upside-down favorability scores. President Biden registers 39:57 percent favorable to unfavorable. Trump’s index is a similar 40:56 percent. The president’s job approval ratio is 41:55 percent positive to negative. Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes and is one of the four states (Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin are the others) that will likely decide the presidential campaign’s final outcome.

Senate

Pennsylvania: Q-Poll Shows Close Race — The aforementioned Pennsylvania Quinnipiac Poll (see presidential post above) also tested the state’s budding Senate race between three-term incumbent Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) and Republican businessman and 2022 Senate candidate David McCormick (R).

Here, we see a closer than expected early result with Sen. Casey holding only a 50-44 percent lead over McCormick. The surprising data point in this survey is McCormick already carrying the Independent voter segment by a percentage point, 45-44 percent.

Sen. Casey holds a 48-31 percent job approval score. With 57 percent of the people saying they need to know more about McCormick, he records a 25:17 percent favorability index. By contrast, Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) holds a strong 53-27 percent job approval rating, but Sen. John Fetterman (D) finds his ratio in upside-down territory at 41:48 percent favorable to unfavorable.

House

CA-20: McCarthy Could Retire — Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) conceded that he will not again run for his former House speaker position and said he will not resign, but left unanswered whether he will seek another term in Congress. The California candidate filing deadline is Dec. 8 for the March 5, 2024, all-party jungle primary, so the congressman does not have much time to decide. Should he opt for retirement, it is likely that several of the state legislators whose districts overlap his Central Valley CD will enter what would be an open race.

State Sen. Shannon Grove (R-Bakersfield), a former Minority Leader, represents 89 percent of the 20th Congressional District, thus putting her in strong position to be McCarthy’s successor. The state assemblyman with the most overlap is Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield), who represents 58 percent of the McCarthy territory.

CA-20 is the safest Republican district in California with a FiveThirtyEight data organization rating of R+31. The Daily Kos Election site ranks CA-20 as the 146th-safest seat of the 222-member Republican Conference.

MD-5: Dem County Chairman to Oppose Rep. Hoyer — Charles County Democratic Party chair Lenny Proctor earlier this week became the fifth member of Rep. Steny Hoyer’s (D-Mechanicsville) party to announce a primary challenge against the former majority leader, a 44-year congressional veteran who appears primed to seek election to yet another term.

The crowded field, also including Prince Georges County Environmental Director Angela Crooms, public affairs specialist Sean McKelvey, two-time congressional candidate McKayla Wilkes, and Democratic activist Joey Thompson, will split the anti-Hoyer vote, thus allowing him to again win easily.

Hoyer will have little trouble winning the Democratic primary, and then the general election in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates at D+28. The Daily Kos Election site ranks MD-5 as the 109th-safest seat of the 213-member Democratic Conference.