Tag Archives: FL-1

Sen. Casey Concedes; Independent Osborn May Return in Nebraska; Gaetz, Waltz Replacement Contenders Making Moves

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 22, 2024

Senate

Pennsylvania Republican David McCormick

Pennsylvania: Sen. Casey Concedes, McCormick In — The Senate races are now complete.

After the Pennsylvania State Supreme Court disallowed the admission of ballots that did not meet legal standards and earlier in the week Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) publicly backed the court’s decision, three-term Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) called a halt to the recount that had already begun. Late last week, he conceded the Senate race to Republican businessman David McCormick.

With the high court rulings and getting little support from his party leaders, continuing the recount became futile because it was unlikely that election officials and/or ballot counting machines around the state would have made approximately 17,000 individual counting mistakes. At the beginning of the recount process, the McCormick lead stood at 16,404 votes.

While Republicans are celebrating a victory that now officially takes them to 53 seats in the Senate, their margin could easily have been much higher. While recent political trends — and particularly so in the last two national elections — have found the Senate races following that of the presidential contest in virtually every state, the 2024 vote proved slightly different.

In this election cycle, the Republicans officially gained four seats, converting the West Virginia open seat and defeating Democratic incumbents Jon Tester in Montana, Sherrod Brown from Ohio, and Casey. Yet, their take could have been much greater.

President-Elect Trump won four other battleground states, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin that also could have elected a Republican senator. The party’s candidates, however, were a cumulative 5.3 percentage points short in those four states.

There will be a great deal of research done once numbers become final and published as to why these states did not follow the same pattern as the others. A total of 33 states hosted the 34 Senate elections (Nebraska had two Senate seats on the ballot because of a special election) and only the aforementioned quartet failed to follow the partisan pattern.

Thus, in the 31 states that President-Elect Donald Trump carried, 18 hosted Senate races and the Republican candidate won 14. Vice President Harris carried 19 states, and 15 held Senate races. The Democratic Senate candidate won in all 15 of those campaigns.

The 2024 pattern was not discovered on election night. Rather, pollsters had projected the situation for months. If anything, the Republican candidates closed the races better than expected.

Throughout virtually the entire election cycle, the Republican Senate candidates were running behind Trump in the battleground states. Where Trump would have a small lead in a particular domain, the GOP Senate candidate was typically polling eight to 10 points behind his standing.

The pattern was not confined to states that more often or not in recent elections vote Democratic such as Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Such was the case even in stronger Republican states and places where Trump had a major lead like Montana and Ohio. The GOP Senate candidate still won but fell considerably behind Trump’s position.

Part of the Republicans’ problem in many Senate situations was Democratic incumbency. While Tester, Brown, and now Casey went down to defeat, incumbency was certainly a positive dynamic for Sens. Jacky Rosen in Nevada and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin. Perhaps the biggest factor here was money. Both Rosen and Baldwin heavily outspent their Republican opponents that, especially in the Nevada race, allowed the incumbent to develop an early and mid-campaign lead that became very difficult to overcome even with a strong close.

The Arizona situation was different. In an open seat with Trump running six points ahead, pulling the Senate candidate across the finish line would have been expected. Here, the Republicans had a candidate with a severe negative image. While obtaining 49.6 percent in the 2022 governor’s race, former news anchor Kari Lake turned what should have been a catapulting finish into a net negative with her extended claims (even to this day) of voter fraud.

While she may have been taken seriously at the outset, carrying on through a losing a series of court decisions created a negative impression of her, thus badly hurting her in the subsequent election.

In Michigan, we saw a different situation. There, both parties fielded strong candidates in the person of Rep. Elissa Slotkin (R-Lansing) and former Congressman Mike Rogers. The end result was a virtual tie, and while Trump barely won Michigan, Rogers barely lost. Again, with Slotkin having a big financial advantage in the campaign, funding could have been the difference.

In the coming weeks, we will get a better picture of what happened in these potentially defining races that voted opposite for Senate as compared with their presidential selection. Were these races decided individually or are they potentially part of an emerging ticket-splitting trend? If so, 2024 may be laying the groundwork to return to a period where splitting one’s partisan vote choices is not such a foreign occurrence.

House

FL-1: Changing Situation — Now that ex-Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) has withdrawn from consideration for Attorney General, there is some chance he could return to take the congressional seat in the next term because he was duly elected in November. Though he stated that he “intends” not to take the oath of office in the new Congress, his resignation only applies to the current Congress. Therefore, he could still return to the House.

Though speculation will be running rampant about what may happen in this congressional seat, several candidates are making moves to enter what they believe will be a special election. The three main candidates are state CFO Jimmy Petronis (R) and state Reps. Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola) and Joel Rudman (R-Navarre). The battle to succeed Gaetz, if one comes to fruition, will be decided in the Republican primary. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-1 as R+38, which is the safest Republican seat in the Sunshine State.

FL-6: Rep. Waltz District Director to File for Special Election — Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) has been announced as President-Elect Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor. Since his position does not require Senate confirmation, Waltz can assume his duties as soon as Trump is sworn into office. At that point, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) can call a special election to replace Waltz who will resign his seat before assuming his new position.

Late last week, Rep. Waltz’s District Director, retired Army Brigadier Gen. Ernie Audino, announced that he will compete in the special election. We can expect a crowded GOP primary field for the safe Republican seat which the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+28.

Examining Polling Margin of Error; McCarthy Ally to Challenge Florida Rep. Gaetz; Court Strikes Down New Louisiana Congressional Map; Kennedy Wins NY-26 Special Election; Gov. to Run for Mayor in Delaware

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 1, 2024

Senate

Polling Margin of Error: Different Ballot Tests — All polls contain a margin of error, and two sets of surveys in the Pennsylvania and Wisconsin Senate races demonstrates the importance of the spread.

Both CBS News and Emerson College were in the field in both states at relatively the same point in time, but they arrived at significantly different results for the same races. CBS News (conducted by the YouGov polling firm; April 19-25; 1,306 registered Pennsylvania voters; online) found Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) leading businessman David McCormick (R), 46-42 percent. Beginning on April 25, Emerson College also studied the Keystone State Senate race. Their data (April 25-29; 1,000 likely Pennsylvania general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) posted Sen. Casey to a much larger 46-39 percent advantage.

Using a margin of error figure of three percentage points, we see that these two polls do fall within the pre-stated specter. Yet, the difference between a four- and seven-point edge on the ballot test is substantial.

We see a similar situation in the latest Wisconsin polling. During the same polling periods, again for both pollsters, we see similar divergent results yet within the polling margin of error. CBS/YouGov (April 19-25; 1,245 likely Wisconsin general election voters; online) finds Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) leading businessman Eric Hovde (R) 48-41 percent, while Emerson (April 25-29; 1,000 registered Wisconsin voters; multiple sampling techniques) again finds a closer race. Their result detects a Baldwin edge of only 46-43 percent. Again, a significant difference, yet within the polling margin of error spread.

House

FL-1: McCarthy Ally to Challenge Rep. Gaetz — At last Friday’s candidate filing deadline, controversial Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) drew a Republican primary challenger who could enjoy outside support. Retired Navy officer Aaron Dimmock (R) filed his candidacy just before time expired. Reports suggest that former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) will back Dimmock and raise substantial support money from loyal organizations who want to even the score for McCarthy’s political demise. Rep. Gaetz was the leader of the McCarthy ouster movement.

It remains to be seen how well Dimmock could perform in the Aug. 20 Republican primary. In 2022, Rep. Gaetz easily turned back a well-funded Republican primary challenge from businessman Mark Lombardo who spent just under $800,000 for his campaign. The congressman won renomination over Lombardo with a landslide 70-24 percent victory margin.

Louisiana: Court Strikes Down New Congressional Map — Louisiana plaintiffs challenging the state’s new congressional map that created a second majority minority district that stretched from Baton Rouge to Shreveport received a favorable ruling yesterday from the three-judge federal panel hearing the lawsuit. The decision means the new congressional map is nullified. The judicial panel will now consider replacement maps. The plaintiffs argued the district was drawn only on racial criteria in violation of the US Constitution.

The ruling is likely to help Republicans, and particularly Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge) whose GOP favorable 6th District was reconfigured as a majority minority seat designed to elect an African-American Democrat. The secretary of state informed the court that the 2024 districts must be in place by May 15 to allow the election office to properly administer the election. Therefore, a quick remedy decision will soon follow.

NY-26: Tim Kennedy (D) Wins Special Election — As expected, state Sen. Tim Kennedy (D-Buffalo) easily scored a special election victory last night to succeed resigned Rep. Brian Higgins (D) in New York’s 26th Congressional District. Kennedy received 75 percent of the vote in the heavily Democratic seat that Republicans basically conceded. The latter party’s candidate, West Seneca Town Supervisor Gary Dickson, reported raising only $35,000 in the pre-election Federal Election Commission disclosure report.

The Kennedy victory means the House party division will move to 217R – 213D with five vacancies (4R – 1D). The 26th District encompasses the Buffalo metropolitan area including parts of Erie and Niagara Counties.

Governor

Delaware: Gov. Carney to Run for Mayor — Two-term Delaware Gov. John Carney (D), who is ineligible under the state’s election law from seeking a third term, instead announced that he will run for mayor of Wilmington. Should Gov. Carney win the open municipal post — he’ll be favored to top City Treasurer Velda Jones-Potter (D) — he would become at least the third governor to later become a mayor.

Gov. Carney would join former Maryland Gov. Ted McKeldin (R) who was elected the state’s chief executive in the 1950s and then return as mayor of Baltimore in the 1960s. Gov. Jerry Brown was elected mayor of Oakland after his first stint as governor of California. He would then return to the governorship and eventually serve 16 non-consecutive years as the state’s chief executive.

Gaetz’s FL-1 Primary Becoming Tougher; Conflicting Polls in AZ; Hawaii’s Kahele Looks to Sweep

By Jim Ellis — July 8, 2022

House

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fort Walton Beach)

FL-1: Gaetz’s Primary Becoming Serious — Embattled US Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fort Walton Beach) just saw his Republican primary challenge become tougher. One of his GOP opponents, Air Force veteran Bryan Jones, announced that he is withdrawing from the campaign in order to support and give former FedEx executive and Marine Corps veteran Mark Lombardo a stronger chance of unseating the incumbent.

Lombardo has ingested $1 million of his own money into the race and just released a new television ad emphasizing the sex trafficking investigation that involves the congressman. Now with only test pilot Greg Merk on the ballot to deflect anti-Gaetz votes, Lombardo has positioned himself as a challenger with the potential ability to snatch the nomination away from the congressman. The Florida primary is Aug. 23, and this race will become very interesting between now and then.

Governor

Arizona: Conflicting Polls — Data Orbital and Moore Information are out with polls that tell a different story in what has become a GOP gubernatorial race between former news anchor Kari Lake and Arizona University Regent Karrin Taylor Robson. Last week, ex-US representative and 2000 gubernatorial nominee Matt Salmon dropped out of the race and endorsed Robson.

The Moore Information survey was conducted for the Salmon campaign (June 22-23; 1,000 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system) and produced a ballot test that posted Robson, for the first time, to a 38-37 percent edge over Lake in a two-way race.

Data Orbital’s poll released Wednesday (June 30-July 2; 515 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; live interview & text), indicated that without Salmon in the race, the previous Lake 39-31 percent advantage drops to 40-35 percent. The Arizona primary is Aug. 2. Secretary of State Katie Hobbs is the likely Democratic nominee. Gov. Doug Ducey (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Hawaii: Lt. Gov. Green Swamping Rep. Kahele — A Civil Beat/Hawaii News Now survey (conducted by MRG Research; June 28-30; 1,120 registered Hawaii voters; 782 likely Hawaii Democratic primary voters) projects physician and Lt. Gov. Josh Green to be holding a huge 48-16-15 percent lead over US Rep. Kai Kahele (D-Hilo), and former Hawaii First Lady Vicky Cayetano. Green has enjoyed big leads since the campaign’s beginning. He is clearly the favorite for the party nomination on Aug. 13, and to succeed term-limited Gov. David Ige (D) in the general election.

Maryland: Too Close to Call — The Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, polling for the Wes Moore gubernatorial campaign (June 22-27; 601 likely Maryland Democratic primary voters; live interview), finds the Maryland Democratic primary headed for a razor-thin finish in the upcoming July 19 delayed nomination election.

According to the GHY results, state Comptroller Peter Franchot slips by author Moore by just a 21-20 percent margin, with former Democratic National Committee chairman Tom Perez closely trailing with 16 percent. A third of the voters still claim to be undecided within two weeks of the primary election. The nomination vote was delayed from its original June 28th date when a court overturned the state’s new congressional lines.

Wisconsin: One Less Republican — Businessman Kevin Nicholson was a late entry into the Republican gubernatorial campaign and now he is an early exit. Nicholson, a former US Senate candidate, Wednesday said he is discontinuing his gubernatorial campaign conceding that he has little chance to win the party nomination. This leaves the race as an ostensibly two-way affair between former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch and construction company owner Tim Michels. Gov. Tony Evers is unopposed for the Democratic nomination. The general election is expected to be rated as a toss-up.