Category Archives: Redistricting

Walkinshaw Wins in Virginia;
A Redistricting Check-Up

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 10, 2025

VA-11

Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D)

Last night, Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D) easily defeated Republican former FBI agent Stewart Whitson, 75-25 percent, in the safely Democratic seat to win the special congressional election. Walkinshaw will replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D), who passed away in May. The Congressman-Elect will serve the balance of the current term and be favored to win again in the 2026 regular election.

Upon being sworn into the House, the partisan division will move to 219R-213D, with three vacancies. The next special election will be held on Sept. 23 in Arizona’s 7th CD where former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D) is favored to win the seat of her late father, Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson), who passed away in March.

Redistricting

It is getting to the point of not being able to keep track of the various congressional redistricting efforts ‘without a scorecard.’ Below, are the latest developments in states where redistricting is actively occurring or being discussed:

• Alabama: It is possible that the Alabama map could be redrawn depending upon the US Supreme Court’s ruling on the Louisiana case, since the two states have virtually identical pending litigation. If the high court upholds the lower court ruling for Louisiana, then it is possible Alabama could follow suit and redraw its map. A second Louisiana round of oral arguments is scheduled for Oct. 15. A redraw would likely add one seat to the Republican column.

• California: A referendum to replace the California Citizens Redistricting Commission map is on the statewide special election ballot for Nov. 4. If voters approve, a new congressional map will be in place for the 2026 election that is projected to give Democrats five more seats and take the state’s partisan division to 48D-4R.

• Colorado: An activist group will attempt to file a constitutional amendment initiative for the 2026 ballot to redraw Colorado’s congressional map. Under the state’s election laws, constitutional amendments must pass with a minimum 55 percent voter approval. The amendment would give the political leaders the power to replace the Colorado Independent Congressional Redistricting Commission map.

The proposed plan projects to a two seat gain for Democrats. If the activists are successful with the ballot approach, the earliest election a new map could take effect would be 2028.

Florida: It appears likely that the Florida legislature will consider a new congressional map when the new session begins in January. An interim legislative committee was constructed to draw the plan. Projections suggest Republicans would gain two seats in the delegation if a new map is enacted. Doing so would push the partisan division to 22R-6D.

Illinois: While Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) was talking about a redraw of the Illinois map, doing so would not be practical. The Illinois map is already the most gerrymandered in the country with a partisan division of 14D-3R, and it is likely not conceivable for Democrats to do better. Chances are good that a redraw will not happen, especially with a fast approaching 2026 candidate filing deadline of Nov. 3.

Indiana: The White House continues to push for a Hoosier State redraw, but it is unclear whether the legislature will address the issue in their new session. The most extreme map would eliminate the state’s two Democratic seats and result in a 9R-0D plan. This situation has not yet solidified.

Kansas: Redistricting discussions are underway in Kansas, and there is talk that the legislature could move toward a special session. Since it is clear that Gov. Laura Kelly (D) will not call the legislature back, two-thirds of members from both houses must support the move for a special session.

Should a session be called and a 4R-0D map introduced, Republicans would realistically need two-thirds support for the legislation in both houses because Gov. Kelly is sure to veto what the legislature produces. Seeing a new Kansas plan being enacted is a long shot.

Louisiana: As discussed in the Alabama section above, the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case currently before the US Supreme Court has the potential of being a landmark case. We won’t see a ruling until later in the year, but this case could set the tone for the entire mid-decade redistricting cycle. In addition to Alabama, the decision could affect the new Texas map.

Maryland: Democratic legislators have introduced a bill that would allow the legislature to address changing their congressional map if other states successfully alter their boundaries. Any new map would target the state’s lone Republican House member, Rep. Andy Harris (R-Cambridge) and result in an 8D-0R delegation.

Missouri: The state House of Representatives just passed a map that changes Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D) Kansas City-anchored 5th District into a Republican seat by stretching it into the rural areas. The state Senate is expected to follow suit, and Gov. Mike Kehoe (R) will reportedly sign the new map into law. Therefore, chances of Republicans gaining one seat in Missouri are high.

Ohio: Legislators are soon going to draw a new congressional map and must do so under state law. Because the 2021 congressional plan did not receive three-fifths vote in each legislative house, the map could only stand for two elections, those in 2022 and 2024. Therefore, the legislators must draw a new plan for 2026 and beyond.

Republicans hope to gain two seats in the re-map, those of Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) and Emilia Sykes (D-Akron). It remains to be seen exactly how the map will be configured, but creating a new congressional plan is a certainty.

Texas: The new Texas plan has been enacted, and the expected voting rights legal challenge has been filed in an El Paso federal court. Assuming the map stands, Republicans could gain as many as five seats but only if the Trump numbers among South Texas Hispanics translate to a Republican congressional candidate. Obviously, Texas will become one of the key states that determines the next US House majority.

Utah: A Utah court has struck down the current congressional map, saying the legislature did not have the authority to bypass voter approved redistricting guidelines. Therefore, the legislature is moving forward to draw a new plan. The decision could lead to a new Democratic urban seat in Salt Lake City. Thus, the current 4R-0D delegation could allow Democrats to gain one seat.

Wisconsin: Earlier in the year, the state Supreme Court rebuffed a move to redraw the congressional map. Activists have re-started the legal process, but reaching the state Supreme Court for reconsideration will be a lengthy process and likely won’t happen to affect the 2026 election.

Utah Joins Redistricting Wars

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Aug. 29, 2025

Redistricting

Utah Congressional Districts (click on image to go to interactive map)

A new court decision has thrust another state to the forefront of the mid-decade redistricting battle that may be developing in as many as 11 states.

A Utah judge early this week issued a ruling that strikes down the state’s 4R-0D congressional map, saying the legislature did not have the right to usurp the citizens’ redistricting commission that voters approved via ballot proposition in 2018. The commission members crafted a congressional map in 2021 that the state legislature rejected and replaced with the current plan.

The ruling is curious in that the judge stated the Utah Constitution makes a vote of the people equal to that of a legislative action. Therefore, District Court Judge Dianna Gibson ruled that the legislature did not have the authority to change the Commission map but did not explain why the people’s vote then trumps legislative power if both are equal. Republicans will appeal to the State Supreme Court, though the high court previously allowed the original lawsuit to continue that resulted in Judge Gibson’s ruling.

The Commission map would likely cost the Republicans one seat since it created a Salt Lake City-anchored district that would presumably elect a Democrat. Like many redistricting battles, this one, too, has the potential of making its way to the US Supreme Court for a final decision.

Currently before the federal high court remains the Louisiana racial redistricting case. A ruling was expected before the end of June, but the justices instead postponed their decision and ordered additional oral arguments, now scheduled for Oct. 15. The court’s ultimate ruling could mean a Louisiana redraw before the 2026 election. If so, Alabama could also see a redraw since their redistricting situation is virtually identical to that of Louisiana.

The just-enacted Texas map already faces a racial gerrymandering lawsuit, this in an El Paso federal court. The Louisiana ruling could affect the new Texas map since the lawsuit grounds involve an alleged violation of the Voting Rights Act.

When the Ohio legislature returns to session in September after the summer break, a new congressional map will be drawn. Since the current plan, adopted in 2021, failed to pass the legislature with at least a three-fifths vote in each chamber, the map could only stand for two elections. Therefore, state law demands a new plan be crafted for the 2026 election and beyond.

Published reports indicate that redistricting is also being considered in Florida, Indiana, Maryland, Missouri, and New York. The referendum in California to usurp the citizens’ commission map and replace it with a published alternative will go to the voters in a Nov. 4 special election.

The Florida House Speaker has assembled a new redistricting committee, and Gov. Ron DeSantis indicates he favors attempting to draw a new map. Some believe the already strong Republican Florida map could yield two more seats.

Talks are underway in Indiana about undertaking redistricting. The GOP target here would be the state’s 1st District that Rep. Frank Mrvan (D-Highland/Gary) represents. In the past two elections, the Congressman recorded a pair of 53 percent victories.

Talk surfaced in Maryland, largely stemming from Gov. Wes Moore (D), that this state could attempt to eliminate the lone Republican district, but nothing concrete toward that end has yet happened.

Republicans are also making progress toward gaining the Kansas City-area district of Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D); moving forward in this situation appears likely.

Finally, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) also made public statements about redistricting retribution. Here too, however, a citizens’ commission is involved in the process. In 2021, even a Democratic court rejected the Democratic legislature’s map after the members found a way to usurp the commission plan. In the legislature’s map, the Republicans would have been relegated to four of 26 seats, which the court rejected.

While the Democrats could gain further seats in New York, the process of changing the current map may be too complicated to do so before the 2026 election.

As one can see, redistricting is a complex issue, and predicting what may happen next in any state’s process is always a difficult proposition.

Decision Time in Texas

(Click on map above to see full-size detail.)

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Aug. 27, 2025

Redistricting

Now that the new Texas redistricting map has been signed into law displaced Democratic incumbents and potential candidates are deciding where they will run.

In the Dallas area, a game of political musical chairs must be played. All three Texas Democrats who currently represent part of Dallas County no longer live in the district for which they will likely run.

It is probable that Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas), whose home is now in Rep. Marc Veasey’s (D-Ft. Worth) 33rd District, will still run in District 30, where almost 69 percent of her current constituency resides. By the same token, Rep. Veasey’s best opportunity is in District 33, but he loses all of his Ft. Worth and Tarrant County base. Only 33 percent of his current constituency lies in the new District 33.

The Dallas Democrat with the least favorable choices is freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch/Dallas). While 41 percent of her current constituency will reside in new District 32, that district now stretches into East Texas and becomes a Republican seat.

Almost one-third of her constituents move to District 33, but Rep. Johnson says she is looking at potentially challenging Republican Rep. Beth Van Duyne (R-Irving) in new District 24. Rep. Johnson sees only three percent of her current constituents landing in TX-24 but says a large portion of her former state House district is included. President Trump carried new CD-24 with a 57-41 percent margin, so Rep. Van Duyne, who finds 87 percent of her current district comprising the new 24th, remains in the driver’s seat for re-election.

Moving to Houston, veteran Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) says he is surveying the new 18th District as a place to run. He would be paired with the winner of the current special election to replace the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D), but the latter individual will only have two months to organize a primary campaign against Green after winning the special election.

Rep. Green’s 9th CD transforms into an eastern Harris County Republican seat, while none of his district will move to CD-18. Much of the current Green constituency, almost 44 percent, goes to Rep. Sylvia Garcia’s (D-Houston) 29th District, of which Garcia would represent only 37 percent of the new CD. Still, Green would be well known in the 18th, and not having to face another entrenched incumbent should be a favorable setup for the 77-year-old House member who was first elected in 2004.

Looking at Austin, Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin) says he will not seek re-election rather than squaring off with fellow Democratic Rep. Greg Casar (D-Austin) in the new 37th CD. Mr. Doggett says he would seek re-election if the court restores the previous map.

In South Texas, Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) sees a much different district, but one that he should like. Gone is the San Antonio portion of the current TX-28 seat where Cuellar experienced trouble in two close Democratic primary challenges. He is still under federal indictment with several charges for bribery, obviously a significant hurdle to overcome, while rumors still abound that he may switch parties. If he doesn’t, his likely opponent will be Webb County Judge (Executive) Tino Tijerina, who also hails from Cuellar’s home domain.

A major development affecting the South Texas seats occurred the other day when former Rep. Mayra Flores (R) indicated that she will move back to TX-34 to again challenge Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) in a re-match of the 2024 campaign that saw Gonzalez prevailing 51-49 percent. Earlier in the year, Flores said she would challenge Rep. Cuellar in District 28.

In a new 34th that now contains almost 40 percent new territory for Gonzalez and all coming from Rep. Michael Cloud’s (R-Victoria) Republican 27th District, the partisan lean of the newly configured TX-34 will favor a strong GOP candidate.

A lawsuit challenging the new map as a racial gerrymander will quickly be filed in an attempt to void the new districts. This will likely put further pressure upon the Supreme Court to finally rule on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case, which has now been scheduled for a second oral argument session on Oct. 15.

If the high court upholds the previous federal three judge panel ruling, then the Texas map will also likely stand and we would see re-draws forced in Louisiana and likely Alabama, which is in an identical situation to that of the Bayou State. In a related ruling, the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the Galveston County case that affected the Texas minority districts and was the reason Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) added redistricting to the legislative special session.

With the Lone Star State candidate filing deadline set for Dec. 9 in conjunction with the March 3, 2026, primary election, much will happen in the political and legal arenas during the next few weeks.

New Texas Map Passes;
Rep. Chip Roy Running for AG

(Click on map above to see full-size detail.)

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Aug. 22, 2025

Texas

REDISTRICTING — The Texas state House of Representatives, with the Democrats returning to create a quorum, passed the new redistricting map on a party line vote. The bill then moved to the state Senate where passage became pro forma since the body passed the plan in the previous legislative special session. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is expected to sign the new map into law as early as today.

While Republicans believe they can gain five seats in the Texas delegation, the number is largely predicated on winning Hispanic voters in numbers that President Trump similarly attained. Whether the new Trump Hispanic voter returns in a midterm election to vote the Republican line becomes a point of conjecture.

The new Texas map creates three open seats, two of which, one in Houston and the other in the San Antonio area, have large Hispanic populations. To reach their goal of converting five districts, the Republican candidates will have to carry the three open seats:

  • District 9 (Houston)
  • District 32 (Dallas area)
  • District 35 (San Antonio area)

Also, Republicans must defeat Reps. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) and Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) in South Texas Districts 28 and 34, respectively.

Former Congresswoman Mayra Flores (R), who lost to Rep. Gonzalez 51-49 percent in November while President Trump was carrying the 34th District in the present configuration (51.8 – 47.4 percent), announced earlier in the year that she would move to District 28 to oppose Rep. Cuellar. Since District 34, now moving northward toward Corpus Christi and losing the McAllen portion of the current CD, becomes more Republican it is unclear if she will go through with the plan to run in CD-28 or return for a second re-match with Rep. Gonzalez in new CD-34.

The new map pairs several Democratic members: Reps. Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin) and Greg Casar (D-Austin), although Rep. Doggett is saying he will retire if this map stands; likely, Reps. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch/Dallas) and Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth) in a Dallas County 33rd District that would contain neither of their home bases; and Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) with the winner of the TX-18 special election to be held later this year.

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin) — Rep. Roy, who had been publicly contemplating entering the open Texas Attorney General’s race, yesterday announced his candidacy for that position, thus opening his Central Texas 21st Congressional District for the 2026 election cycle.

Counting the Roy open seat along with the Texas trio of new open CDs, the national US House open seat count would rise to 29 (15R-11D-3 New).

Once the four special elections are filled beginning on Sept. 9 in Virginia with the VA-11 district and concluding with TX-18, which could stretch into January (under Texas election law, the Governor calls a special runoff once it becomes certain that the top finisher will not reach the majority support level in the initial election), the national open-seat count will revert to 25.

In the GOP Attorney General’s primary, Congressman Roy will face state Sen. Mayes Middleton (R-Galveston), state Sen. Joan Huffman (R-Houston), former Assistant US Attorney General Aaron Reitz, and possibly others. For the Democrats, state Sen. Nathan Johnson (D-Dallas) and former Galveston Mayor and ex-AG candidate Joe Jaworski are the announced contenders.

The new 21st District will be similar but not identical to the seat that Rep. Roy is vacating. The new TX-21 will contain northern Bexar County (San Antonio), move north to capture Comal and part of Hays County which borders Austin, and then travels west into the Texas Hill Country to include the flood-ravaged area around Kerrville when the Guadalupe River overflowed on the 4th of July.

The current CD-21 partisan lean is 61.0R – 36.7D. The new 21st would lose about 30 percent of the territory to other districts but gain a commensurate amount. The new partisan lean, again through the work of the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, would calculate as a similar 60.3R – 38.4D. Therefore, it is highly likely that Rep. Roy’s successor will be the winner of the next Republican nomination campaign.

California Redistricting:
The Five Targeted Seats

The proposed congressional map by California Democrats, (left) and the current map (right). Click on map to see larger image. Graphic: Dave’s Redistricting App / Joshua Metcalf)

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Aug. 19, 2025

Redistricting

The California proposed retribution redistricting map that key staff members at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) drew is now public, and the process to adopt such a plan is beginning this week.

In order for the California Governor and legislators to replace their current congressional map before the 2030 census is completed, the leadership must find a way to usurp the California Citizens Redistricting Commission that the voters instituted through a 2010 ballot measure. The only way to cancel the Commission map, Gov. Gavin Newsom and the majority Democrats believe, is to have another vote of the people to directly adopt a specific new map.

While the Newsom et al interpretation will likely be subject to a lawsuit with the objective of halting the process, the legislature this week will vote on a measure to place a new congressional map on a special election ballot this November. To approve a ballot referendum, each legislative chamber must do so with a two-thirds super majority. Considering the Democrats hold well over two-thirds of the seats in both the state Assembly and state Senate, placing the referendum on the ballot will likely be achieved.

Whether a majority of special election voters will adopt the map is open to question. For years, voters have listened to arguments about enacting “fair” district maps. In fact, this argument was the crux of the 2010 initiative campaign to create the citizens’ commission and 61.3 percent of the voters did so. Yet, in this special election, the message coming from Democratic leaders will now be to ‘vote yes for gerrymandering.’

Therefore, getting a majority vote on such a measure may be a more difficult political task than Gov. Newsom and his cohorts currently believe.

Thanks to the statisticians at The Down Ballot political blog, we see the data behind the proposed district configurations. The very rapidly completed calculations tell us how the 2024 and 2020 presidential elections unfolded in every new district. The statisticians also calculated how much of each current district is included in a new 2026 district.

To put the new map in context, we must remember that the current delegation is comprised of 43 Democrats and just nine Republicans. The new map is projected to possibly take the Republicans down to as few as four seats.

As we know, the DCCC California map is drawn as a retaliatory move against the new Texas redistricting plan that could be adopted this week. Projections suggest that the new map could yield as many as five additional GOP seats.

It remains an important point to underscore that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) added redistricting issue to his special session in response to a US Justice Department directive to redraw the map. The DOJ cited a recent en banc US 5th Circuit Court of Appeals minority districts ruling that now cause some of the state’s congressional districts to become illegal.

The California Republican US House members facing the most difficult re-election situations, should the proposed map become law, are Reps. Doug LaMalfa (R-Oroville; District 1), Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento; District 3), and Ken Calvert (R-Corona; District 41).

Another GOP member, Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego; District 48), would find himself in a much more competitive re-election campaign, while Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford; District 22), would see his already Democratic-leaning seat further help a Democratic candidate. President Trump, however, still carried the new District 22.

Rep. LaMalfa’s new 1st District, according to The Down Ballot statisticians, would contain just 43.8 percent of his current constituency and transform from a 61 percent Trump district to a 54 percent Kamala Harris CD.

Rep. Kiley would retain 46.8 percent of his current 3rd CD, and sees the presidential index move from 50 percent Trump to 55 percent Harris. Based upon his residence, he would technically be paired with Rep. Ami Bera (D-Sacramento; District 6), but he would likely seek re-election in CA-3.

Rep. Calvert would find himself in the worst position of all the Republicans. A total of 50.5 percent of his current 41st District constituency would be placed in new District 38, which is 56 percent Harris and could mean a pairing with Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Whittier; District 38), though it is likely she would run in new District 41. Most of Rep. Sanchez’s constituents are in either District 38 or District 31 that fellow Democrat Gil Cisneros (D-Covina) holds, but District 41 could be open, carries a Kamala Harris percentage of 57, and runs adjacent to her current district.

Rep. Young Kim (R-La Habra) would find most of her constituency in new District 41, but a third of her voters are in new District 40, which is a 56 percent Trump seat and does not have an incumbent. We could see Kim and Calvert both running for this seat.

The Issa 48th CD would keep only 32.3 percent of its current population base, while the presidential index moves from 56 percent Trump to 52 percent Harris.

Finally for the Republicans, the Valadao 22nd District keeps 84.3 percent of its current constituency and moves from 52 percent Trump to 50 percent Trump. Therefore, the region is not as partisan as some other district iterations that Congressman Valadao has previously faced.

The other Democrats most affected would be Reps. Robert Garcia (D-Long Beach; District 42) who would retain only 35.2 percent of his constituency base; Dave Min (D-Irvine; District 47) would lose a majority of his current seat (52.7 percent), but his new territory is much more Democratic; while Scott Peters (D-San Diego; District 50) would keep only 43.5 percent of his current constituency.

While these Democratic members would be in strong shape against a Republican, a series of strong Democratic candidates could pose individual threats to each.

Texas Redistricting:
Doggett/Casar Paired in New TX-37

To see this and more detailed maps and District breakdowns go to data.capitol.texas.gov.

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Aug. 18, 2025

House

With the Texas House Democrats likely returning to Austin this week for a new legislative special session, the Republican redistricting map appears set to become law.

The new plan is drawn in response to the US Justice Department informing the state leadership that a recent en banc 5th Circuit Court of Appeals decision pertaining to minority district composition made certain Texas congressional districts illegal.

For political reasons, Republicans are making the most of the redrawing opportunity to craft more favorable districts for their incumbents and candidates. With the Hispanic vote particularly in South Texas turning more GOP favorable, a new map has the potential of producing significant Republican gains.

A byproduct of the redraw is the pairing of several Democratic US House members in newly constructed districts. The one attracting the most attention occurs in Travis County, where Austin-based House members Lloyd Doggett and Greg Casar are preparing for a head-on battle to represent the new 37th CD, which is fully contained within the county and will be heavily Democratic.

Earlier this week, Rep. Doggett released an open letter to his key supporters informing them of his intention to run in new District 37 and suggesting Rep. Casar run in the new 35th District. The 35th contains none of Travis County and is anchored in San Antonio, but a district in which Casar currently sees an approximate 10 percent overlay between the population of his current CD and that part of the new TX-35.

Part of the new CD 35 configuration is similar to Rep. Casar’s current Austin-anchored district, but the addition of Republican voting counties east of San Antonio help create a significantly Hispanic seat that President Trump carried by approximately 10 percentage points.

Casar, who is currently the chairman of the House Progressive Caucus and served for seven years on the Austin City Council, quickly rejected Rep. Doggett’s suggestion. Therefore, we can expect both men to compete for new District 37.

The new 37th, however, is comprised mostly of Rep. Doggett’s territory from his current 37th CD. In the new configuration, 68 percent of the new TX-37’s populace is currently in Rep. Doggett’s domain versus just 32 percent who reside in Rep. Casar’s current district, according to The Down Ballot political blog researchers.

The Federal Election Commission 2nd Quarter disclosure reports also reveal another major Doggett edge. For the ’26 election cycle, Rep. Doggett has raised only a little over $130,000 but sits on a war chest of more than $6.2 million. Rep. Casar posted in excess of $264,000 raised for the current year and holds slightly over $450,000 in his campaign account, less than 10 percent of the money that Rep. Doggett commands.

The looming Doggett-Casar contest is another example of some Democratic primaries popping up around the country that pit an older incumbent against a young rising star. In this case, Rep. Doggett is 78 years old and will be 80 by the time of the next election. He has been a House member since 1995.

Prior to winning a congressional seat, Doggett served as a Justice of the Texas Supreme Court after initially winning election to the state Senate in a 1973 special election. He also ran unsuccessfully for the US Senate in 1984, losing to Republican Phil Gramm.

Casar, 36, was elected to the House in 2022 after taking his seat on the Austin City Council in 2014. An advantage he may have in the new 37th is the large Travis County Hispanic population. The new district configuration yields a Hispanic base of close to 38 percent, but the proportion will certainly be higher among likely Democratic primary voters. The remainder of the populace is comprised of approximately 44 percent Anglo residents, 10 percent who are Black, and eight percent Asian.

The Texas map also pairs Democratic members in two other districts. It is likely that Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth) would lose his Tarrant County power base and run in a new 33rd CD that is fully contained within Dallas County. It is possible that freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch/Dallas), who faces only poor options for re-election, could run against Rep. Veasey.

In Houston, the winner of the November (and possibly early January election should the first vote lead to a runoff, which is likely) special election will have to immediately turn around and face veteran Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) in a new 18th CD that will contain a large portion of the Congressman’s current 9th District.

Once the map becomes law, incumbents and candidates will then make definitive decisions regarding the districts in which they will run.

Redistricting Sabre Rattling

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Aug. 4, 2025

Redistricting

A look at how things might play out in the redistricting tug of wars

Though we are only at the midpoint before beginning a process that traditionally happens only once a decade, we could soon see redistricting action happening in several locations.

With the redistricting bill on the floor of the Texas House of Representatives for debate as early as this afternoon, a map that could add several seats to the Lone Star State’s Republican delegation could pass into law. Reports suggest that enough Democrats have already bolted to Illinois in order to break the quorum and freeze the legislature from acting. It will be confirmed once the session begins. The Democrats will need a minimum 51 of their 62 House members to not attend in order break the two-thirds quorum rule.

The escape move has been tried over the years but merely prolongs the process because the Governor can simply call additional 30-day special sessions. At some point the members will return home. Therefore, in delaying the process, the stunt has probably increased chances for eventual final passage because Republicans will be more united.

Soon, the Ohio legislature will begin their own redistricting process in order to comply with state law. Under the Buckeye State redistricting procedure, any plan that does not pass the legislature with at least a three-fifths vote in each chamber, to assure bipartisan concurrence, can only be in effect for two election cycles. The 2021 congressional map passed with only majority support; therefore, it could stand for only the 2022 and 2024 elections. This means the state must put a new plan in place for the 2026 election and beyond.

In response to the occurring action, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) have both threatened that California could counter the Texas and Ohio action with their own redraw and urges other Democratic controlled states to do the same.

Setting the record straight, neither Texas nor Ohio is entering into a mid-decade redistricting merely for partisan purposes. The US Justice Department sent a letter to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Secretary of State Jane Nelson (R) informing them that some of the state’s congressional districts are illegal based upon a recent en banc US 5th Circuit Appellate Court ruling that affirmed a three judge federal panel’s initial decision.

Naturally, the Republicans will use the Texas and Ohio situations to improve their partisan standing, but is the Newsom-Padilla retaliation threat probable or even realistic? Chances are, no.

To even think about launching a mid-decade redistricting effort, a state realistically must have a trifecta, meaning one party controls both state legislative chambers and the Governor’s office. Under current state party division ratios, Republicans have 23 trifectas and Democrats’ 15.

Therefore, let’s look at where the Democrats could realistically counter the future Texas and Ohio maps with a more partisan congressional redistricting plan from their universe of 15 states.

In seven of these places, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts, New Mexico, and Rhode Island, the Democrats already hold every congressional seat, so no new map could improve upon their current standing.

In three more states — Newsom and Padilla’s own California, Colorado — as well as New York, the legislature does not have the power to redraw districts. Citizens’ commissions were created through ballot proposition to handle redistricting.

In two more Democratic trifecta states, New Jersey and Washington, the redistricting process must begin before a specified commission of elected officials or those whom elected or political party officers appoint.

In the Commission states, the legislature and Governor would have to take action to eliminate the current structure in order to move forward on a new redistricting plan. In most instances, that would require a vote of the people since a ballot proposition is typically the way these panels came into existence.

In California’s case, the Governor has said he would ask the legislature to adopt an emergency measure so he could call a special election. The people would then have to reject their previous vote and eliminate the commission process thus returning redistricting power to the legislature and Governor. Only then could redistricting begin the way Newsom and Padilla are suggesting. Clearly, this would be time consuming and a tall order.

Looking at Colorado, the commission process has arguably performed as the best in the nation. Furthermore, the elimination steps would even be more difficult here because the state Supreme Court is a part of the official redistricting process. Not only would a proposition vote be needed to eliminate the citizens commission, it would also have to remove the state Supreme Court from having final approval power.

It is unrealistic that Gov. Jared Polis (D) would initiate such a move, especially when the various Colorado redistricting commissions experienced very little controversy during their initial cycle in 2021.

Thus, in only three of the Democratic controlled states, Illinois, Maryland, and Oregon, could the party leaders move forward with introducing new map legislation, but even in these places it would be a difficult call.

Many people believe that Illinois has already enacted the most gerrymandered map in the country, as Republicans are relegated to only three of 17 seats. Considering President Trump received 43.5 percent of the 2024 Illinois presidential vote, it is difficult to see how a new map could take even more seats from the Republicans when they only control 18 percent of the districts and none north of Peoria.

The Maryland and Oregon congressional maps only allow the Republicans one seat in each state, so like in Illinois, it is difficult to see how either place can produce a more Democratic map. In Maryland, President Trump received 34 percent of the vote, yet Republicans have just 12.5 percent of the congressional seats. The situation is similar in Oregon. In 2024, President Trump garnered 41 percent of the vote, but the GOP controls just 17 percent of the Beaver State congressional seats.

Even if California could redraw, they would find themselves in a similar situation to that of Illinois, Maryland, and Oregon. The Golden State has 52 congressional districts and Republicans hold only nine seats. President Trump received 38 percent of the 2024 vote, and the Republican challenger to Gov. Newsom in 2022, then-state Sen. Brian Dahle, attracted 41 percent support. Yet the GOP is relegated to only 17 percent of the seats.

Therefore, it is difficult to see how the Democrats could improve their allotment of congressional seats in these places without beginning to endanger some of their current incumbents who would be left with more competitive districts; hence, they would risk opening a political Pandora’s Box.

Certainly, the Texas Democrats’ action will prolong, but not necessarily end, the current redistricting situation. We await the principals’ next moves.

Redistricting:
New Texas Map Unveiled

Newly proposed Texas redistricting map
(Click here to see current CD interactive version: Texas)

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Aug. 1, 2025

Redistricting

The new Texas proposed congressional map was unveiled Wednesday and, as President Trump predicted, the new draw could produce a net of at least four and possibly five more Republican seats in the 38-member delegation.

The redistricting process started, and Gov. Greg Abbott (R) added the issue to his special legislative session agenda, because the US Justice Department informed the Governor and Secretary of State that several of the state’s congressional districts are now illegal due to a recent en banc ruling from the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals on a Galveston County redistricting lawsuit.

The ruling paved the way for the state Republican map drawers to create more favorable political districts.

The legislative battleground will be in the state House of Representatives. There, the Republicans have an 88-62 majority, but Speaker Dustin Burrows (R-Lubbock) was elected via coalition as Democrats crossed over to support him. The action sent the Republican Caucus candidate down to defeat. The state Senate is even more Republican, 19R-11D, with one GOP vacancy.

Internal Texas legislative politics pertaining to partisanship, committee chairmanships, and the Speakership itself could all turn based upon how this redistricting issue unfolds over the next few days. The special legislative session began on July 21 and can last no longer than 30 days. The Governor, however, can call additional 30-day sessions if the issue call is not completed.

Several times in the past 20 years, Democratic members have left the state in order to break the chamber quorum and thus prevent legislative business from progressing. Texas is perhaps the only state where the legislature holds a two-thirds quorum requirement, so Democrats have enough to prevent the House from convening should at least 50 of their members not appear.

US House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) is coming to Texas to speak to the House Democratic Caucus and convince them to do what is within their power to prevent the map, and its likely Republican seat gain, from being enacted into law.

To further complicate matters, the state has the power to arrest lawmakers who refuse to attend session and force them into the chamber, so the next few days will become interesting.

While the Democrats could temporarily freeze the House, their power is limited. Gov. Abbott could simply end the session and then call the members into a new 30-day special conclave if not enough members are present. He can stop and start special sessions at will. Additionally, at least five other issues, including flood relief for Central Texas, are also on the issue call, meaning more than redistricting must be addressed.

If the presented redistricting plan is enacted, several Democratic members will face tough political situations.

Beginning in Harris County, the map would create a new open eastern Houston area district that would be heavily Hispanic but favor Republicans based upon recent voter history. This would lead to Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) being paired with the winner of the TX-18 special election in a new Harris/Ft. Bend County 18th CD.

Moving to the Dallas area, freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) would find her district moved to east Texas, thereby likely forcing her into a paired incumbent situation with Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth). Veasey could also choose to run against Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas). Her new 30th District would venture into Tarrant County, which is part of Veasey’s home base.

In the Rio Grande Valley, Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen), saw his 88 percent Hispanic Voting Age Population seat vote for President Trump (52-47 percent). Therefore, Gonzalez’s 34th District becomes 11 percentage points more Republican by moving out of Hidalgo County and then northward to Nueces County, annexing a portion of Corpus Christi city.

In Austin, Reps. Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin) and Greg Casar (D-Austin) would find themselves paired in a new 37th District that would be fully contained within Travis County. The result of this draw would create a new open 35th District anchored in east San Antonio that appears politically marginal but is more likely to land in the Democratic column.

The removal of the Bexar County (San Antonio) portion from Rep. Henry Cuellar’s (D-Laredo) 28th District is likely welcome news for the veteran Congressman who is widely cast as the House’s most conservative Democratic member. Cuellar had not performed well in the San Antonio area, so this new map likely strengthens him.

More will be known about the districts when further data is calculated and released, but the current available statistics find just two districts, TX-19 (Rep. Jodey Arrington, R-Lubbock) and TX-23 (Rep. Tony Gonzales, R-San Antonio), untouched. Two districts (TX-9 and TX-35) would be new. Of the remaining 34 CDs, 19 would become more Republican to varying degrees and 15 would become more Democratic, again to varying degrees.

While this map would greatly help the Republicans hold the US House majority in the 2026 elections, it is not certain that such a plan will ultimately be enacted.

The Redistricting Wars Begin

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 21, 2025

Redistricting

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) call to add congressional redistricting to the special legislative session has already elicited a response from a Democratic adversary.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), has attacked Gov. Abbott’s redistricting move, calling it a partisan power grab, and says he will retaliate with his own legislature redrawing the Golden State congressional map to neutralize any seat gain that the new Republican map yields.

Several points make Newsom’s planned response unrealistic.

First, the California legislature has no redistricting power. In 2008, voters adopted a constitutional ballot proposition that created the California Citizens Redistricting Commission, which took the redistricting pen away from the legislature and awarded it to an appointed panel of individuals who are not in elected office. Therefore, Newsom and the legislators would first have to find a way to disband the Commission in order to proceed with a new map.

According to an article from The Down Ballot political blog that quoted Gov. Newsom from an interview he conducted with the Pod Save America hosts, the California chief executive indicated that he could call his own special session to place a measure on a special election ballot to void the Commission.

Gov. Newsom said on the podcast that he thinks “… we would win that. I think people understand what’s at stake in California. I think we come out in record numbers. I think it would be [an] extraordinary success,” the Governor concluded.

His prediction may or may not be accurate, and Newsom acknowledges that the calendar would be a major obstacle for such a movement because the commission invalidation process would require so much time.

The second option would be to claim, as Newsom said, that the Commission lacks mid-decade redistricting authority. The Governor argued that the ballot proposition awarded the Commission redistricting power after the Census was released and the lines would hold for the full decade. He said answering whether the Commission even has redistricting authority beyond once every 10 years and immediately after a Census should be pursued.

The third obstacle would be simply drawing a map that would give the Democrats five more seats in the California delegation. Gov. Newsom quoted President Trump as saying a new Texas Republican map could provide US House Speaker House Johnson with five additional Republican seats. Therefore, Newsom said California could neutralize such an increase.

The California delegation has 52 members and only nine are Republican. Can the Republicans be reduced to just four seats without endangering some Democratic incumbents? Seems the difficulty factor to avoid such an outcome is high when considering that President Trump received 38 percent of the statewide vote in 2024 and even Gov. Newsom’s own 2022 opponent, then-state Sen. Brian Dahle (R), garnered 41 percent.

Additionally, since the Census was released, Democrats have lost almost a full percentage point in voter registration affiliation and the Republicans have gained a point, not to mention that the overall state population figure is reduced.

According to the latest published voter registration figures (February 2025), Democrats claim 45.27 percent of the affiliations, Republicans 25.22 percent, and the non-affiliated, or Declined to State, option records 25.34 percent. Minor parties absorb the remaining 4.17 percent. Therefore, considering these numbers in trying to reduce the Republicans to just 7.7 percent of the seats (4 of 52), would prove to be quite a mathematical feat.

Additionally, using the Texas Democrats’ argument that the Lone Star State map is already gerrymandered because Republicans control 66 percent of the congressional seats but their presidential nominee only received 56 percent of the vote pales in comparison to the ratios in the current California map. There, Democrats control 83 percent of the districts even though the Democratic presidential candidate, and California winner, garnered only 58 percent.

The Texas map is explained in that President Trump carried all 25 Republican districts and two of the Democratic seats and ran almost four points ahead of the statewide Republican partisan lean calculation. In California, Kamala Harris carried no Republican congressional district and ran five points below the Democratic partisan lean figure.

The Texas legislature convenes today, and a new map will be released soon after since the special session is only 30 days long. At that point, further analysis can be conducted, and Gov. Newsom’s countermove strategy may begin.

Redistricting Action Continues:
Texas & Wisconsin

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Redistricting

A look at how things might play out in two key states — Texas & Wisconsin — in the redistricting tug of wars

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R), as expected, has added the congressional redistricting issue to the upcoming special session. The legislature is scheduled to reconvene on July 21. The session can last up to 30 days to handle the issues that the Governor places on the legislative call. Under Texas law, the Governor has the power to call an unlimited number of 30-day special sessions after the legislature adjourns for the biennial.

In Wisconsin, though the state Supreme Court justices recently said they would not hear the congressional redistricting case before them, a new lawsuit has been filed.

A group called the Wisconsin Business Leaders for Democracy filed the lawsuit claiming the current map is an “anti-competitive gerrymander,” distinguishing their claim from the partisan gerrymander lawsuit the Supreme Court refused to hear according to an Associated Press news story. An anti-competitive gerrymander refers to all incumbents rather than those of one particular party.

The Wisconsin suit was filed in before a Dane County circuit court where the plaintiffs will likely get a favorable ruling. The process, however, will be lengthy as appeals to any lower court ruling will occur before again reaching the state Supreme Court. Therefore, it may be a longshot to see the Wisconsin map redrawn before the 2026 midterm elections.

The Texas situation is much different, and Republican leaders may be able to produce a new map that increases the current plan’s 25R-13D split.

South Texas appears to attract the most attention in the special session. Using the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians’ partisan lean calculations (methodology employed to develop the partisan lean figures can be found on the following “About Data” link from the DRA website: About Data – Dave’s Redistricting App), we generally see the Republicans overperforming in the region.

Under the current Texas plan, the DRA partisan lean calculation correctly projected which party would hold the particular congressional district in 37 of the 38 CDs. The only officeholder to win a congressional seat where the opposing party held the partisan lean advantage occurred in South Texas District 15 where two-term GOP Rep. Monica de la Cruz (R-McAllen) held her seat with a 57-43 percent majority. The DRA 15th District partisan calculation gives the Democrats a 4.1 percentage point advantage.

President Trump carried 27 of the state’s 38 CDs, including three seats where the partisan lean calculation favored the Democrats. In addition to District 15, Trump also topped Kamala Harris in District 28 (Rep. Henry Cuellar; D-Laredo) and 34 (Rep. Vicente Gonzalez; D-McAllen). All of these CDs are located in South Texas.

Thus, the Trump performance largely destroys part of the Democrats’ racial gerrymander argument because he carried these three districts that have overwhelming minority populations.

In District 34, the Voting age minority population figure is 90.5 percent and 88.5 percent Hispanic. Trump won the district with a 51.8 – 47.4 percent majority. In District 15, the minority Voting Age Population (VAP) figure is 82.4 percent with the Hispanic VAP at 78.9 percent. President Trump carried this district with a strong 58.5 – 40.7 percent majority. District 28 has a minority VAP of 80.7 percent with a Hispanic VAP of 72.9 percent. The Trump winning margin here is 53.2 – 45.9 percent.

There are 19 Texas districts where White voters are the majority of the Voting Age Population. Trump won 18 of the 19. The one exception that supported Kamala Harris was Rep. Lloyd Doggett’s (D-Austin) 37th CD that stretches from Austin to San Antonio down the I-35 corridor.

Eighteen of the Texas congressional districts feature majority minority populations. Of those, Trump won nine of the 18 seats and exceeded the Republican benchmark in all 18. Trump also exceeded the DRA partisan lean GOP benchmark in the nine majority minority seats that Harris claimed. These statistics, to a significant degree, at least partially spoil the Democrats’ Voting Rights Act racial gerrymandering arguments.

Regarding the partisan lean figures from all of the Lone Star State’s 38 congressional districts, Trump exceeded the Republican benchmark in 32 of the seats. In the 14 districts where Democrats hold the partisan lean advantage, Trump exceeded the Republican benchmark in all.

In six districts, the Trump performance failed to reach the Republican benchmark, even though he carried each of the seats. Those where the President finished below the GOP partisan mean were TX-2 (Rep. Dan Crenshaw-R), TX-3 (Rep. Keith Self-R), TX-22 (Rep. Troy Nehls-R), TX-24 (Rep. Beth Van Duyne-R), TX-26 (Rep. Brandon Gill-R), and TX-38 (Rep. Wesley Hunt-R).

In Wisconsin’s eight congressional districts, we see similar patterns relating to President Trump’s performance in reference to the DRA partisan lean figures.

There, President Trump carried six of the state’s eight districts on his way to a 49.6 – 48.7 percent statewide victory. His vote total exceeded the DRA partisan lean in six of the eight districts. The only seats where he underperformed in relation to the Republican benchmark were in District 5 (Rep. Scott Fitzgerald-R), which ironically is the most Republican district in the state, and District 4 (Rep. Gwen Moore-D), Wisconsin’s most Democratic seat.

Though redistricting is designed to be done once per decade, changes in laws and procedures along with unending legal challenges to the district plans have made map drawing a perennial issue.