Category Archives: Redistricting

Redistricting Sabre Rattling

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Aug. 4, 2025

Redistricting

A look at how things might play out in the redistricting tug of wars

Though we are only at the midpoint before beginning a process that traditionally happens only once a decade, we could soon see redistricting action happening in several locations.

With the redistricting bill on the floor of the Texas House of Representatives for debate as early as this afternoon, a map that could add several seats to the Lone Star State’s Republican delegation could pass into law. Reports suggest that enough Democrats have already bolted to Illinois in order to break the quorum and freeze the legislature from acting. It will be confirmed once the session begins. The Democrats will need a minimum 51 of their 62 House members to not attend in order break the two-thirds quorum rule.

The escape move has been tried over the years but merely prolongs the process because the Governor can simply call additional 30-day special sessions. At some point the members will return home. Therefore, in delaying the process, the stunt has probably increased chances for eventual final passage because Republicans will be more united.

Soon, the Ohio legislature will begin their own redistricting process in order to comply with state law. Under the Buckeye State redistricting procedure, any plan that does not pass the legislature with at least a three-fifths vote in each chamber, to assure bipartisan concurrence, can only be in effect for two election cycles. The 2021 congressional map passed with only majority support; therefore, it could stand for only the 2022 and 2024 elections. This means the state must put a new plan in place for the 2026 election and beyond.

In response to the occurring action, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) have both threatened that California could counter the Texas and Ohio action with their own redraw and urges other Democratic controlled states to do the same.

Setting the record straight, neither Texas nor Ohio is entering into a mid-decade redistricting merely for partisan purposes. The US Justice Department sent a letter to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Secretary of State Jane Nelson (R) informing them that some of the state’s congressional districts are illegal based upon a recent en banc US 5th Circuit Appellate Court ruling that affirmed a three judge federal panel’s initial decision.

Naturally, the Republicans will use the Texas and Ohio situations to improve their partisan standing, but is the Newsom-Padilla retaliation threat probable or even realistic? Chances are, no.

To even think about launching a mid-decade redistricting effort, a state realistically must have a trifecta, meaning one party controls both state legislative chambers and the Governor’s office. Under current state party division ratios, Republicans have 23 trifectas and Democrats’ 15.

Therefore, let’s look at where the Democrats could realistically counter the future Texas and Ohio maps with a more partisan congressional redistricting plan from their universe of 15 states.

In seven of these places, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts, New Mexico, and Rhode Island, the Democrats already hold every congressional seat, so no new map could improve upon their current standing.

In three more states — Newsom and Padilla’s own California, Colorado — as well as New York, the legislature does not have the power to redraw districts. Citizens’ commissions were created through ballot proposition to handle redistricting.

In two more Democratic trifecta states, New Jersey and Washington, the redistricting process must begin before a specified commission of elected officials or those whom elected or political party officers appoint.

In the Commission states, the legislature and Governor would have to take action to eliminate the current structure in order to move forward on a new redistricting plan. In most instances, that would require a vote of the people since a ballot proposition is typically the way these panels came into existence.

In California’s case, the Governor has said he would ask the legislature to adopt an emergency measure so he could call a special election. The people would then have to reject their previous vote and eliminate the commission process thus returning redistricting power to the legislature and Governor. Only then could redistricting begin the way Newsom and Padilla are suggesting. Clearly, this would be time consuming and a tall order.

Looking at Colorado, the commission process has arguably performed as the best in the nation. Furthermore, the elimination steps would even be more difficult here because the state Supreme Court is a part of the official redistricting process. Not only would a proposition vote be needed to eliminate the citizens commission, it would also have to remove the state Supreme Court from having final approval power.

It is unrealistic that Gov. Jared Polis (D) would initiate such a move, especially when the various Colorado redistricting commissions experienced very little controversy during their initial cycle in 2021.

Thus, in only three of the Democratic controlled states, Illinois, Maryland, and Oregon, could the party leaders move forward with introducing new map legislation, but even in these places it would be a difficult call.

Many people believe that Illinois has already enacted the most gerrymandered map in the country, as Republicans are relegated to only three of 17 seats. Considering President Trump received 43.5 percent of the 2024 Illinois presidential vote, it is difficult to see how a new map could take even more seats from the Republicans when they only control 18 percent of the districts and none north of Peoria.

The Maryland and Oregon congressional maps only allow the Republicans one seat in each state, so like in Illinois, it is difficult to see how either place can produce a more Democratic map. In Maryland, President Trump received 34 percent of the vote, yet Republicans have just 12.5 percent of the congressional seats. The situation is similar in Oregon. In 2024, President Trump garnered 41 percent of the vote, but the GOP controls just 17 percent of the Beaver State congressional seats.

Even if California could redraw, they would find themselves in a similar situation to that of Illinois, Maryland, and Oregon. The Golden State has 52 congressional districts and Republicans hold only nine seats. President Trump received 38 percent of the 2024 vote, and the Republican challenger to Gov. Newsom in 2022, then-state Sen. Brian Dahle, attracted 41 percent support. Yet the GOP is relegated to only 17 percent of the seats.

Therefore, it is difficult to see how the Democrats could improve their allotment of congressional seats in these places without beginning to endanger some of their current incumbents who would be left with more competitive districts; hence, they would risk opening a political Pandora’s Box.

Certainly, the Texas Democrats’ action will prolong, but not necessarily end, the current redistricting situation. We await the principals’ next moves.

Redistricting:
New Texas Map Unveiled

Newly proposed Texas redistricting map
(Click here to see current CD interactive version: Texas)

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Aug. 1, 2025

Redistricting

The new Texas proposed congressional map was unveiled Wednesday and, as President Trump predicted, the new draw could produce a net of at least four and possibly five more Republican seats in the 38-member delegation.

The redistricting process started, and Gov. Greg Abbott (R) added the issue to his special legislative session agenda, because the US Justice Department informed the Governor and Secretary of State that several of the state’s congressional districts are now illegal due to a recent en banc ruling from the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals on a Galveston County redistricting lawsuit.

The ruling paved the way for the state Republican map drawers to create more favorable political districts.

The legislative battleground will be in the state House of Representatives. There, the Republicans have an 88-62 majority, but Speaker Dustin Burrows (R-Lubbock) was elected via coalition as Democrats crossed over to support him. The action sent the Republican Caucus candidate down to defeat. The state Senate is even more Republican, 19R-11D, with one GOP vacancy.

Internal Texas legislative politics pertaining to partisanship, committee chairmanships, and the Speakership itself could all turn based upon how this redistricting issue unfolds over the next few days. The special legislative session began on July 21 and can last no longer than 30 days. The Governor, however, can call additional 30-day sessions if the issue call is not completed.

Several times in the past 20 years, Democratic members have left the state in order to break the chamber quorum and thus prevent legislative business from progressing. Texas is perhaps the only state where the legislature holds a two-thirds quorum requirement, so Democrats have enough to prevent the House from convening should at least 50 of their members not appear.

US House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) is coming to Texas to speak to the House Democratic Caucus and convince them to do what is within their power to prevent the map, and its likely Republican seat gain, from being enacted into law.

To further complicate matters, the state has the power to arrest lawmakers who refuse to attend session and force them into the chamber, so the next few days will become interesting.

While the Democrats could temporarily freeze the House, their power is limited. Gov. Abbott could simply end the session and then call the members into a new 30-day special conclave if not enough members are present. He can stop and start special sessions at will. Additionally, at least five other issues, including flood relief for Central Texas, are also on the issue call, meaning more than redistricting must be addressed.

If the presented redistricting plan is enacted, several Democratic members will face tough political situations.

Beginning in Harris County, the map would create a new open eastern Houston area district that would be heavily Hispanic but favor Republicans based upon recent voter history. This would lead to Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) being paired with the winner of the TX-18 special election in a new Harris/Ft. Bend County 18th CD.

Moving to the Dallas area, freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) would find her district moved to east Texas, thereby likely forcing her into a paired incumbent situation with Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth). Veasey could also choose to run against Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas). Her new 30th District would venture into Tarrant County, which is part of Veasey’s home base.

In the Rio Grande Valley, Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen), saw his 88 percent Hispanic Voting Age Population seat vote for President Trump (52-47 percent). Therefore, Gonzalez’s 34th District becomes 11 percentage points more Republican by moving out of Hidalgo County and then northward to Nueces County, annexing a portion of Corpus Christi city.

In Austin, Reps. Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin) and Greg Casar (D-Austin) would find themselves paired in a new 37th District that would be fully contained within Travis County. The result of this draw would create a new open 35th District anchored in east San Antonio that appears politically marginal but is more likely to land in the Democratic column.

The removal of the Bexar County (San Antonio) portion from Rep. Henry Cuellar’s (D-Laredo) 28th District is likely welcome news for the veteran Congressman who is widely cast as the House’s most conservative Democratic member. Cuellar had not performed well in the San Antonio area, so this new map likely strengthens him.

More will be known about the districts when further data is calculated and released, but the current available statistics find just two districts, TX-19 (Rep. Jodey Arrington, R-Lubbock) and TX-23 (Rep. Tony Gonzales, R-San Antonio), untouched. Two districts (TX-9 and TX-35) would be new. Of the remaining 34 CDs, 19 would become more Republican to varying degrees and 15 would become more Democratic, again to varying degrees.

While this map would greatly help the Republicans hold the US House majority in the 2026 elections, it is not certain that such a plan will ultimately be enacted.

The Redistricting Wars Begin

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 21, 2025

Redistricting

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) call to add congressional redistricting to the special legislative session has already elicited a response from a Democratic adversary.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), has attacked Gov. Abbott’s redistricting move, calling it a partisan power grab, and says he will retaliate with his own legislature redrawing the Golden State congressional map to neutralize any seat gain that the new Republican map yields.

Several points make Newsom’s planned response unrealistic.

First, the California legislature has no redistricting power. In 2008, voters adopted a constitutional ballot proposition that created the California Citizens Redistricting Commission, which took the redistricting pen away from the legislature and awarded it to an appointed panel of individuals who are not in elected office. Therefore, Newsom and the legislators would first have to find a way to disband the Commission in order to proceed with a new map.

According to an article from The Down Ballot political blog that quoted Gov. Newsom from an interview he conducted with the Pod Save America hosts, the California chief executive indicated that he could call his own special session to place a measure on a special election ballot to void the Commission.

Gov. Newsom said on the podcast that he thinks “… we would win that. I think people understand what’s at stake in California. I think we come out in record numbers. I think it would be [an] extraordinary success,” the Governor concluded.

His prediction may or may not be accurate, and Newsom acknowledges that the calendar would be a major obstacle for such a movement because the commission invalidation process would require so much time.

The second option would be to claim, as Newsom said, that the Commission lacks mid-decade redistricting authority. The Governor argued that the ballot proposition awarded the Commission redistricting power after the Census was released and the lines would hold for the full decade. He said answering whether the Commission even has redistricting authority beyond once every 10 years and immediately after a Census should be pursued.

The third obstacle would be simply drawing a map that would give the Democrats five more seats in the California delegation. Gov. Newsom quoted President Trump as saying a new Texas Republican map could provide US House Speaker House Johnson with five additional Republican seats. Therefore, Newsom said California could neutralize such an increase.

The California delegation has 52 members and only nine are Republican. Can the Republicans be reduced to just four seats without endangering some Democratic incumbents? Seems the difficulty factor to avoid such an outcome is high when considering that President Trump received 38 percent of the statewide vote in 2024 and even Gov. Newsom’s own 2022 opponent, then-state Sen. Brian Dahle (R), garnered 41 percent.

Additionally, since the Census was released, Democrats have lost almost a full percentage point in voter registration affiliation and the Republicans have gained a point, not to mention that the overall state population figure is reduced.

According to the latest published voter registration figures (February 2025), Democrats claim 45.27 percent of the affiliations, Republicans 25.22 percent, and the non-affiliated, or Declined to State, option records 25.34 percent. Minor parties absorb the remaining 4.17 percent. Therefore, considering these numbers in trying to reduce the Republicans to just 7.7 percent of the seats (4 of 52), would prove to be quite a mathematical feat.

Additionally, using the Texas Democrats’ argument that the Lone Star State map is already gerrymandered because Republicans control 66 percent of the congressional seats but their presidential nominee only received 56 percent of the vote pales in comparison to the ratios in the current California map. There, Democrats control 83 percent of the districts even though the Democratic presidential candidate, and California winner, garnered only 58 percent.

The Texas map is explained in that President Trump carried all 25 Republican districts and two of the Democratic seats and ran almost four points ahead of the statewide Republican partisan lean calculation. In California, Kamala Harris carried no Republican congressional district and ran five points below the Democratic partisan lean figure.

The Texas legislature convenes today, and a new map will be released soon after since the special session is only 30 days long. At that point, further analysis can be conducted, and Gov. Newsom’s countermove strategy may begin.

Redistricting Action Continues:
Texas & Wisconsin

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Redistricting

A look at how things might play out in two key states — Texas & Wisconsin — in the redistricting tug of wars

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R), as expected, has added the congressional redistricting issue to the upcoming special session. The legislature is scheduled to reconvene on July 21. The session can last up to 30 days to handle the issues that the Governor places on the legislative call. Under Texas law, the Governor has the power to call an unlimited number of 30-day special sessions after the legislature adjourns for the biennial.

In Wisconsin, though the state Supreme Court justices recently said they would not hear the congressional redistricting case before them, a new lawsuit has been filed.

A group called the Wisconsin Business Leaders for Democracy filed the lawsuit claiming the current map is an “anti-competitive gerrymander,” distinguishing their claim from the partisan gerrymander lawsuit the Supreme Court refused to hear according to an Associated Press news story. An anti-competitive gerrymander refers to all incumbents rather than those of one particular party.

The Wisconsin suit was filed in before a Dane County circuit court where the plaintiffs will likely get a favorable ruling. The process, however, will be lengthy as appeals to any lower court ruling will occur before again reaching the state Supreme Court. Therefore, it may be a longshot to see the Wisconsin map redrawn before the 2026 midterm elections.

The Texas situation is much different, and Republican leaders may be able to produce a new map that increases the current plan’s 25R-13D split.

South Texas appears to attract the most attention in the special session. Using the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians’ partisan lean calculations (methodology employed to develop the partisan lean figures can be found on the following “About Data” link from the DRA website: About Data – Dave’s Redistricting App), we generally see the Republicans overperforming in the region.

Under the current Texas plan, the DRA partisan lean calculation correctly projected which party would hold the particular congressional district in 37 of the 38 CDs. The only officeholder to win a congressional seat where the opposing party held the partisan lean advantage occurred in South Texas District 15 where two-term GOP Rep. Monica de la Cruz (R-McAllen) held her seat with a 57-43 percent majority. The DRA 15th District partisan calculation gives the Democrats a 4.1 percentage point advantage.

President Trump carried 27 of the state’s 38 CDs, including three seats where the partisan lean calculation favored the Democrats. In addition to District 15, Trump also topped Kamala Harris in District 28 (Rep. Henry Cuellar; D-Laredo) and 34 (Rep. Vicente Gonzalez; D-McAllen). All of these CDs are located in South Texas.

Thus, the Trump performance largely destroys part of the Democrats’ racial gerrymander argument because he carried these three districts that have overwhelming minority populations.

In District 34, the Voting age minority population figure is 90.5 percent and 88.5 percent Hispanic. Trump won the district with a 51.8 – 47.4 percent majority. In District 15, the minority Voting Age Population (VAP) figure is 82.4 percent with the Hispanic VAP at 78.9 percent. President Trump carried this district with a strong 58.5 – 40.7 percent majority. District 28 has a minority VAP of 80.7 percent with a Hispanic VAP of 72.9 percent. The Trump winning margin here is 53.2 – 45.9 percent.

There are 19 Texas districts where White voters are the majority of the Voting Age Population. Trump won 18 of the 19. The one exception that supported Kamala Harris was Rep. Lloyd Doggett’s (D-Austin) 37th CD that stretches from Austin to San Antonio down the I-35 corridor.

Eighteen of the Texas congressional districts feature majority minority populations. Of those, Trump won nine of the 18 seats and exceeded the Republican benchmark in all 18. Trump also exceeded the DRA partisan lean GOP benchmark in the nine majority minority seats that Harris claimed. These statistics, to a significant degree, at least partially spoil the Democrats’ Voting Rights Act racial gerrymandering arguments.

Regarding the partisan lean figures from all of the Lone Star State’s 38 congressional districts, Trump exceeded the Republican benchmark in 32 of the seats. In the 14 districts where Democrats hold the partisan lean advantage, Trump exceeded the Republican benchmark in all.

In six districts, the Trump performance failed to reach the Republican benchmark, even though he carried each of the seats. Those where the President finished below the GOP partisan mean were TX-2 (Rep. Dan Crenshaw-R), TX-3 (Rep. Keith Self-R), TX-22 (Rep. Troy Nehls-R), TX-24 (Rep. Beth Van Duyne-R), TX-26 (Rep. Brandon Gill-R), and TX-38 (Rep. Wesley Hunt-R).

In Wisconsin’s eight congressional districts, we see similar patterns relating to President Trump’s performance in reference to the DRA partisan lean figures.

There, President Trump carried six of the state’s eight districts on his way to a 49.6 – 48.7 percent statewide victory. His vote total exceeded the DRA partisan lean in six of the eight districts. The only seats where he underperformed in relation to the Republican benchmark were in District 5 (Rep. Scott Fitzgerald-R), which ironically is the most Republican district in the state, and District 4 (Rep. Gwen Moore-D), Wisconsin’s most Democratic seat.

Though redistricting is designed to be done once per decade, changes in laws and procedures along with unending legal challenges to the district plans have made map drawing a perennial issue.

Wisconsin Supreme Court Says No

Wisconsin Congressional Districts

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 27, 2025

Redistricting

In a surprising turn of events, the Wisconsin state Supreme Court justices announced that the panel will not hear the Democratic cases that were petitioning for a re-drawing of the state’s congressional districts.

Before the 2024 election, the Badger State high court ordered changes for the state Assembly and Senate boundaries but simultaneously refused to alter the congressional map. Considering that at least two of the justices said during their respective campaigns that the congressional map should be re-drawn, the 2023 pronouncement was eyebrow raising. The same decision from a slightly different 4D-3R court came as a shock to most.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has called his state legislature into a late July special session, and it is presumed he will add the congressional redistricting issue to the extraordinary session agenda. Ohio, as their state law mandates, also must re-draw its congressional map, and a US Supreme Court ruling before the end of this month may result in the Louisiana congressional map being reconstructed.

All of this judicial action likely favoring Republicans at least to a degree, seemed to bolster the chances of Wisconsin also reconfiguring its eight-district federal plan as the Democrats wished.

Seven-term Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Town of Vermont/Madison) summed up the feeling of many Democrats when he said to an Associated Press reporter in response to the court’s announcement that, “it’s good that Wisconsin has fair maps at the state level, but we deserve them at the federal level as well. Unfortunately, gerrymandered maps for members of Congress will remain in Wisconsin.”

Democrats such as Rep. Pocan believe the map is out of balance from a partisan perspective because a domain that typically returns very close statewide election results yields a 6R-2D congressional map. They proclaim, according to the AP story, that the congressional map “violates the state constitution’s requirement that all Wisconsin residents be treated equally.”

This partisan gerrymandering argument has rarely succeeded because the claimants suggest that people who voluntarily join a political party should be given the same civil rights protections that minority groups enjoy.

The rejoinder argument is that two of the six Wisconsin Republican seats are highly competitive. Rep. Bryan Steil’s (R-Janesville) southeastern 1st District carries a partisan lean of 49.4R – 48.3D according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, but the Congressman has won twice under this district configuration with a pair of 54 percent victories.

In the state’s western 3rd District that Democrat Ron Kind represented for 26 years before Republican Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) won the seat in a 2022 open contest, saw the new incumbent scoring successively tight 51.3 and 51.8 percent victories to flip the seat. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the 3rd District partisan lean at 48.9D – 48.5R. Thus, the Democrats’ argument that these two districts are gerrymandered Republican seats has been hard to sell.

Despite the Wisconsin map not being re-drawn, we can expect to again see hard fought campaigns in Districts 1 and 3, and each could flip. Democrats may have a harder time finding a strong candidate to oppose Rep. Steil because he has already beaten some of the top Democrats in the region as was the case in November when he turned back former Rep. Peter Barca, but the district can still go either way.

The candidate story is different in District 3. In 2024, businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D) came within 2.7 percentage points of upsetting Rep. Van Orden. She will face Democratic primary competition in 2026 from Eau Claire City Council President Emily Berge and Eau Claire City Councilwoman Laura Benjamin so her path to renomination must overcome partisan obstacles.

Cooke, however, now armed with such diverse ideological Democratic endorsements from the House Blue Dog PAC, which is the more moderate internal party organization, and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) from the far left faction, still must be considered the presumed favorite for the Democratic nomination.

Redistricting notwithstanding, Wisconsin will be an important US House battleground state in 2026. Republicans, however, are now breathing a sigh of relief while Democrats are expressing continued disappointment at the state Supreme Court’s most recent redistricting action.

An Early Redistricting Cycle

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 26, 2025

Redistricting

Putting together the redistricting puzzle

It appears we will see at least three states soon begin a mid-decade redistricting effort for various reasons.

It has been long assumed that the Wisconsin state Supreme Court justices would re-draw the congressional boundaries before the 2026 election. After the Democrats secured their high court majority before the 2024 election, the members reconfigured the state Assembly and Senate as a way to “rectify the Republican majority’s partisan gerrymander.” Surprisingly, the court did not follow suit to simultaneously change the congressional district map. It is probable they will take such action soon.

It is believed that a majority of the court justices, as at least two publicly stated when campaigning for their position, see the current 6R-2D congressional map as constituting a partisan gerrymander. It is expected that the justices will assign a special master to draw districts that would bring the partisan ratio to 4-4, which could mean Reps. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) and Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) might lose their seats while threatening the very tight US House Republican majority.

The state of Ohio is also preparing for a re-draw, but not because of a partisan gerrymandering. Under Ohio election law, plans must pass both houses of the legislature with three-fifths of the voting members. Because the 2021 congressional plan was adopted with only majority support, the map would only be in effect for two succeeding elections, 2022 and 2024. Therefore, in order to comply with state law, the Ohio redistricting commission, comprised of elected officials, and the legislature must again embark upon the redistricting process.

Republicans hold a 10-5 advantage in the congressional delegation with two of the Democratic seats, District 9 (Rep. Marcy Kaptur; 48.3 – 47.6 percent 2024 election result) and District 13 (Rep. Emilia Sykes; 51.1 – 48.9 percent), being very tight from a partisan perspective. The weakest Republican showing in the last election came from Rep. Max Miller (R-Rocky River; 51.1 – 36.1 percent). Excluding Rep. Miller’s 51 percent tally, the remaining nine Republicans averaged 65.2 percent of the vote.

With Republicans generally in charge of the redistricting process expect moves to make the Kaptur and Sykes’ districts more Republican.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has called a special legislative session to begin July 21. Because Texas only has a short 140-day legislative session every other year, it has been commonplace after the last few sessions to bring the members back into an extra session to complete unfinished business.

Under Texas law, the Governor has sole authority to call a special session, but the legislative period can only consume 30 days. It is possible for the Governor to call additional sessions if more time is needed. Also importantly, it is only the Governor who sets the agenda for the legislative session. It is widely believed that Gov. Abbott will add congressional redistricting to this particular legislative special session.

Each of the three states has a unique reason for conducting a mid-decade redistricting session. In Texas’ case, it is because excessive growth has made several districts severely overpopulated.

Using the US Census Bureau’s mid-decade population estimates, Texas has grown in population by a 7.2 percent rate since the 2020 census was concluded. During this same time period, the national growth rate is 2.6 percent. The Texas number translates into over 1.2 million more people living in the state since the last Census. Should this trend continue, the Texas population will swell by over 4 million more people by 2030 when compared to 2020.

Therefore, the growth numbers account for the early estimated national reapportionment calculations that suggest Texas could gain an additional four congressional seats for the next decade. Hence, the Governor and legislative leaders will again redistrict to more equitably distribute the state’s major raw number growth figure throughout its current 38 congressional districts.

The Texas congressional delegation stands at 25R-13D; therefore, it would not be surprising to see the GOP dominated legislature attempt to expand the Republican position within the current congressional delegation through the redistricting session.

New York City Mayoral Results;
Major Texas Action

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 25, 2025

New York City

Campaign posters for Zohran Mamdani pasted on a wall in New York City. / Photo by EdenPictures

After leading in polling for most of the race until falling behind just days before the election, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo conceded yesterday’s Democratic mayoral primary to state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani even though the Ranked Choice Voting rounds have not yet begun.

Still, with more than a 90,000-vote lead with well over 90 percent of the precincts reporting, and a joint campaign from opponents to dissuade voters from ranking Cuomo in the later rounds, it is clear that the Assemblyman, who ran as a Democratic Socialist, will win the party nomination.

Cuomo did not, however, rule out advancing into the general election potentially as an Independent or the nominee of a minor party. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams is already in the general election running as an Independent. With New York City Democrats holding a 65-24 percent registration advantage over Independents and minor party registrants – Republicans are only at 11 percent – it is clear that Mamdani will be very difficult to overtake in the November election.

Assemblyman Mamdani pledged to make bus fares free, community college tuition-free, provide child care for children five years of age and under, freeze rents on municipal housing, and have the city operate grocery stores to drive down prices, among other things. His platform appealed to the far left and to young people who would directly benefit from his proposals; most, however, don’t believe implementing all of these proposals will be fiscally or practically possible.

Assemblyman Mamdani’s biggest negative for the general election, in a city with more than 1 million Jewish residents, is his refusal to condemn the extreme anti-Israel demands of protestors and pro-Palestine activists; he went so far as to “appear to defend the slogan globalize the intifada.”

It remains to be seen how active the opposition general election campaigns will be, or if a coalition candidate will emerge, but last night was a clear victory for Mamdani who is certainly the early favorite to win the general election.

Texas

In the past few days, the state of Texas has come roaring to the political news forefront. Perhaps the most significant story is Gov. Greg Abbott (R) calling a state legislative special session that will likely lead to a re-drawing of the Texas congressional map. While the Governor has not yet added redistricting to the special session agenda, reports suggest he will do so imminently.

Because the state has grown by more that 2.1 million people since the 2020 census was released, translating into a 7.3 percent growth rate, the mid-decade estimates suggest that the state’s current 38 districts are already significantly imbalanced from an equivalent population perspective. To put the Texas growth figure into context, the national rate of population increase during the same period is 2.6 percent.

Democrats now have a Lone Star State US Senate candidate. Retired astronaut Terry Virts announced his candidacy this week with attacks directed more toward GOP challenger and Attorney General Ken Paxton rather than incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R). For his part, Sen. Cornyn who has been trailing Paxton in every early Republican primary poll, for the first time indicated he might step aside if he could be assured that another Republican contender could deny Paxton the nomination.

In addition to Virts, former Congressmen Colin Allred, the 2024 Democratic Senate nominee, Beto O’Rourke, the party’s 2018 Senate and 2022 gubernatorial nominee, and state Sen. Nathan Johnson (D-Dallas) are also confirming having interest in entering the Senate race.

In the South Texas 28th Congressional District that veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) represents, a budding Republican primary is also developing.

Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina (R) announced that he is forming a congressional exploratory committee to assess his chances of winning both the Republican primary and a general election against veteran Rep. Cuellar.

Webb County, which houses the city of Laredo, is the largest population entity in the 28th CD just slightly ahead of the Bexar County (San Antonio) portion. Already in the Republican primary is former Congresswoman Mayra Flores who is moving into this district from the 34th CD (Brownsville) where she was elected in a special election but defeated in two subsequent campaigns after more Democratic boundaries were enacted in the 2021 redistricting plan.

Clearly, the 28th will feature both a competitive Republican primary on March 3 and a hotly contested general election. In November, Rep. Cuellar, despite being under federal indictment, defeated retired Navy officer Jay Furman (R) 53-47 percent, while President Trump was carrying the CD over Kamala Harris with a 53-46 percent margin. It remains to be seen how this district will be adjusted in the coming redistricting effort.

To the west of the Cuellar district, wealthy conservative Texas rancher Susan Storey Rubio announced late last week that she will challenge three-term Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) in the sprawling 23rd Congressional District that stretches from San Antonio all the way to El Paso. Considering Rubio’s ability to self-fund and already casting Rep. Gonzales as a “spineless moderate” suggests that this may be a March primary challenge that could draw significant political attention.

CO-8: Another Battleground Campaign for Control of the US House

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 4, 2025

House

One certainty for the 2026 election cycle is that Colorado’s 8th Congressional District will again feature a competitive and hugely expensive campaign.

The Centennial State gained a new US House seat from the 2020 national reapportionment formula due to excessive population growth. The Colorado Independent Congressional Redistricting Commission members purposely drew the state’s new 8th CD as a highly competitive district that could go back and forth between the parties to reflect the electorate’s short-term political swings. So far, the district has performed as designed.

In the 2022 election, Democrat Yadira Caraveo, then a state Representative, won the 8th District’s initial election with a tight 48.4 – 47.7 percent victory margin over state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer (R-Weld County). Two years later, reflecting a more Republican trend in the marginal district, then-state Rep. Gabe Evans (R) unseated Caraveo by a similarly small victory spread, 48.9 – 48.2 percent.

The 2026 campaign has already drawn five Democratic candidates, including former Rep. Caraveo. Her campaign just released the results of the latest internal Public Policy Polling survey (May 19-20; 467 likely C0-8 Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) that posts the former Congresswoman to a substantial early lead in the party primary.

According to the PPP ballot test, Caraveo would attract 36 percent support compared to state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) and State Treasurer Dave Young’s eight percent preference factor. State Rep. Shannon Bird (D-Westminster) and former teacher’s union president Amie Baca-Oehlert trail at five and four percent, respectively.

The Democratic primary is already attracting significant local media attention. A story has surfaced that Caraveo, a physician, had previously attempted suicide. The district also attracted early acclaim when Rutinel, the first announced candidate, raised just under $1.2 million in this year’s first quarter.

In contrast, Caraveo, who spent over $8.1 million for her 2024 campaign and ended with just over $4,300 remaining in her account as 2024 concluded, had just $330 cash-on-hand for the new campaign at the end of March. Her financial status, however, will soon change. State Treasurer Young and state Rep. Bird are recent entries into the race. Baca-Oehlert is soon expected to formally announce her candidacy.

For his part, Rep. Evans reported 2025 receipts through March 31 of just under $811,000 and showed slightly more than $755,000 in his cash-on-hand column. In 2024, Evans’ campaign spent just under $2.7 million in the challenger effort.

We can expect to see each side, when adding independent expenditures to the aggregate, spending as much as $25 million apiece. In 2024, outside spending in the CO-8 race totaled almost $17 million for the Democrats (61 percent spent on negative ads) and $12.2 million for the Republicans (90 percent negative) according to the Open Secrets organization reports.

The 8th District lies north and east of Denver and contains the larger cities of Thornton, Westminster, Greeley, and Commerce City, and wholly lies in parts of three counties, Adams (87 percent of county’s population), Larimer (five percent), and Weld (75 percent). President Joe Biden carried the 8th District in 2020 with a 50.8 – 46.3 percent margin. Two years later, President Donald Trump rebounded to defeat Kamala Harris here, 49.6 – 47.8 percent, again reflecting the district’s tight political nature.

It can be debated whether having such a marginal political district that guarantees hugely expensive congressional campaigns every two years is reflective of the good government intention that the redistricting commission members professed for their reasons of drawing such a district. Yet, so far the draw has produced the desired effect.

The Colorado redistricting system features three citizens commissions each constructed to draw a set of districts (i.e., congressional, state Senate, and state House of Representatives). Some believe this model has been the best of the states that employ commissions.

One reason for the positive reviews is the state Supreme Court has a defined role in the process. Once the commissions complete their respective maps, the finished plans automatically move to the state Supreme Court for legal review before the plans are finally adopted.

Having the court as part of the defined process has resulted in no redistricting lawsuits being filed in the state; therefore, yielding a much smoother process. Unlike many states, the Colorado process has now virtually guaranteed that the maps will stay in place for the entire decade consistent with the original redistricting intent.

Redistricting:
Lawsuits Filed in Wisconsin

Current Wisconsin Congressional Districts Map (Click to enlarge or go here: Legis.Wisconsin.Gov)

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 15, 2025

Redistricting

The Down Ballot political blog is running a story indicating that two redistricting lawsuits have been filed against the Wisconsin congressional map. Changing the plan as the plaintiffs desire would likely lead to Republicans losing at least two members from the current delegation.

Redistricting was a focal point of state Supreme Court campaigns in the last two Wisconsin judicial election cycles. Democrats won the critical elections in 2023 and earlier this year to secure the liberal court majority.

Before the 2024 elections when Justice Janet Protasiewicz was elected, it appeared the court would redraw the congressional districts. Protasiewicz, running for the post in 2023, spoke repeatedly on the campaign trail about changing the congressional map. Her election gave the Democrats the majority they needed to do so, but they surprisingly stopped short. While redrawing the state Senate and Assembly district borders, the court left the congressional districts untouched without explanation.

Some political observers theorize that the court played a partisan game with the congressional district issue. The thought was the majority wanted to shield Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D), on the ballot in 2024, from facing a more difficult opponent such as Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville). The Congressman had a multi-million dollar war chest that could have been wholly converted to a Senate campaign if his House district were made unwinnable for a Republican.

If this was even part of the reason that the court did not address the congressional districts, it may have been a sound partisan move. Sen. Baldwin won re-election over GOP businessman Eric Hovde with just an eight-tenths of one percent margin. Therefore, against a perceived more difficult opponent, the Senator could have easily lost. Thus, waiting an extra election cycle to redraw the federal plan may have paid the Democrats’ a dividend.

The principal argument for a redraw is the Republicans’ 6-2 majority in the Wisconsin congressional delegation. Democrats argue the map is a partisan gerrymander because Badger State elections often end with one party or the other winning races by one or two percentage points, or even less, as was the case for Sen. Baldwin in 2024. Partisan gerrymandering has been the subject of many cases, but it is still not fully determined whether a political party can, in effect, be considered a protected class.

A second lawsuit claims the districts have an uneven population and therefore need adjustment. This is an odd argument since all districts change throughout the course of a decade, thus every constructed political map is obsolete under this theory. This case, however, could allow the court to declare the map invalid without addressing the partisan gerrymandering issue.

It is most likely that the two most endangered Republicans under a redraw situation would be Reps. Steil and Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) in the 1st and 3rd Districts, respectively.

The 1st CD lies in the far southeastern corner of Wisconsin bordering Illinois and Lake Michigan. It contains a small portion of Milwaukee County before moving south to annex Kenosha and Racine counties. It also contains parts of Rock and Walworth counties to the west. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the district’s partisan lean is 49.4R – 48.3D. President Trump carried the seat over Kamala Harris in 2024 with a 51.5 – 47.0 percent majority. Four years earlier, he topped President Biden 50.3 – 48.3 percent.

District 3 lies in the southwestern part of the state anchored in the cities of La Crosse and Eau Claire. The 3rd is comprised of 14 Wisconsin counties and parts of five others. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean is 48.9D – 48.5R, making it one of the most politically even seats in the country.

President Trump, however, outperformed the 3rd District stats in the past two elections, defeating Harris, 52.9 – 45.5 percent, and President Biden, 51.5 – 46.8 percent. Rep. Van Orden averaged 51.5 percent in his two victorious elections. Prior to the Republican winning two consecutive elections here, former Rep. Ron Kind (D) represented the district for 13 consecutive terms.

Sitting in between these districts is Rep. Mark Pocan’s (D-Town of Vermont; Madison) 2nd CD. It is here where the region’s Democrats reside. This district’s partisan lean is 69.7D – 28.2R and houses the most liberal county in the state, Dane, which contains the capital city of Madison and provides the district its population anchor (575,347 residents).

A possible boundary change would shift Democrats from Rep. Gwen Moore’s (D-Milwaukee) safe Democratic 4th District and move them south to the 1st. Various Republican and Democratic voters would then be swapped between the 1st and 2nd. In order to feed more Democrats into the 3rd, we would likely see more Democrats shifted from the 2nd and swapped for Republican voters.

The trick for the Democratic map drawers is to shift enough Democrats into both the 1st and 3rd to unseat Steil and Van Orden, while at the same time keeping enough in District 2 to keep Rep. Pocan’s seat safe. This may prove an interesting balancing act, and chances are that either Steil or Van Orden, or possibly both, will still have a fighting chance of winning re-election.

Assuming the court orders a congressional redraw in time for the 2026 election suggests Reps. Steil and Van Orden’s political circumstances will be far more difficult than what they face today.

Ohio May Check Wisconsin

Current Ohio Congressional Districts (click on map to see larger)

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 4, 2025

Redistricting

Tuesday’s Wisconsin state Supreme Court election could well culminate in a redistricting effort that will change the state’s congressional districts. Considering the new high court’s personnel complexion, a redraw will likely mean the loss of two Republican seats.

Wisconsin, however, is not the only state that will or could undertake redistricting in 2025. Within Ohio’s unique and rather complex redistricting system, the current map must be changed before the 2026 elections.

Under the Buckeye State process, maps must be approved by a certain number of redistricting commission members from both parties before receiving three-fifths legislative approval. If a plan does not have sufficient bipartisan support, the district boundaries can still be passed into law with a majority vote in each state legislative chamber but will only stand for two election cycles.

Such was the case in the 2021-22 Ohio redistricting process; thus, the current map is only in place for the 2022 and 2024 election cycles. Therefore, the state must redraw the plan for the 2026 election and beyond.

Very likely, Wisconsin Republican Congressmen Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) and Derek Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) will be in jeopardy once the redraw process begins, but a certain pair of Ohio Democratic House members may also face a similar problem.

At the end-point through the complex Ohio process, a majority could approve a new map without bipartisan support, but it would again only remain in place for two election cycles. This means, at least for the short-term, Republicans could theoretically make the Ohio congressional map even more to their partisan liking.

Today, two Democratic seats are politically marginal. Veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) has been in the House since her original election in 1982. She barely won re-election this past November, however (48.3 – 47.6 percent). Once her district was moved out of Cleveland and solely into central and northwestern Ohio, it became a much more competitive seat.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rated OH-9 as R+6. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculated the partisan lean in a bit different manner and found the 9th District in pure tossup territory (48.9D – 48.6R), which is the way it performed in 2024.

In the Akron area, Rep. Emilia Sykes (D) was reelected with just 51 percent support last November. Her opponent in that election, former state legislator Kevin Coughlin (R), has already said that he will return for a rematch in 2026. Her 13th District is also very tight politically, one that Kamala Harris carried with only a 183-vote margin in the 2024 presidential election.

Ironically, according to The Down Ballot political blog analysis, Sykes, then a state Representative, and her father, former state Sen. Vernon Sykes, were two Democratic redistricting commission members who refused to vote in favor of the congressional map when it was drawn before the 2022 election. Because of their lack of support the map could only last four years, and now the plan may be re-drawn to Sykes personal detriment.

While the Democrats believe they can gain two seats in the Wisconsin delegation through a new redistricting, such an increase could be negated if the Ohio Republicans redraw Districts 9 and 13 in their partisan favor.

As we have seen many times, redistricting in the modern political era is no longer a once-in-a-decade happening. In fact, redistricting situations occurred throughout the last decade, and our current decennial appears no different.

In any event, it is quite possible that Reps. Steil, Van Orden, Kaptur, and Sykes may all soon be facing different and unfavorable district boundaries from which to seek re-election in 2026.