Category Archives: Redistricting

North Carolina Races – Part II

Click on above image or here to go to FiveThirtyEight interactive redistricting map.

By Jim Ellis

March 9, 2022 — Today’s update is the second part of our look at the new North Carolina political map. In this edition, we examine the state’s 14 new US House districts.

Incumbents who look to be in strong position under the new map and won’t get much of a challenge are the following (the rating figure comes from the FiveThirtyEight statistical organization):

Rep. Deborah Ross (D-Raleigh; D+24)
Rep. Greg Murphy (R-Greenville; R+29)
Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-Banner Elk; R+24)
Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro; D+9)
Rep. David Rouzer (R-Wilmington; R+16)
Rep. Dan Bishop (R-Union County; R+38)
Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-Lake Norman; R+43)
Rep. Alma Adams (D-Charlotte; D+25)

The state will feature four open seats in the 2022 election. Rep. G.K. Butterfield (D-Wilson) is retiring after serving what will be nine full terms, leaving his 1st District as an open seat. Rep. Butterfield complained that the original draw makes the seat less favorable for an African-American candidate to win. The new district increases the black population percentage by a point, to just over 41 percent. The total minority population registers almost 50 percent of the new 1st, with a 49.9 percent number.

Four Democrats filed for the seat, and the leading candidates appear to be state Sen. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) and ex-state senator and 2020 US Senate candidate Erica Smith. Seven Republicans filed including 2020 nominee Sandy Smith, who held Rep. Butterfield to a 54-46 percent re-election victory, and Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson. FiveThirtyEight rates this seat as D+5, so we can expect the GOP to target this race.

Rep. David Price (D-Chapel Hill) is also retiring. He is completing 17 non-consecutive terms in the House, having lost his seat in the 1994 election after originally coming to the House in the 1986 vote. He returned to Congress in the 1996 election. Eight Democrats are vying for the party nomination and the seat in the May primary.

Since the new 4th is rated D+30, claiming the Democratic nomination is tantamount to winning the general election. The leading candidates appear to be state Sen. Valerie Foushee (D-Carrboro), Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, and country singer and 2014 congressional nominee Clay Aiken.

Continue reading →

North Carolina Races Set – Part I

2022 North Carolina Congressional Redistricting Map

By Jim Ellis

March 8, 2022 — The chaotic Tar Heel State political scene quelled on Friday as the postponed candidate filing period finally came to a close. Today we look at the recent North Carolina redistricting past and future, along with an analysis of the open Senate race. Tomorrow, we examine the state’s 14 new US House districts.

The North Carolina state Supreme Court’s approved map will be in place for the 2022 midterm election, and as a result the candidate slate is less competitive than the originally conceived congressional plan would have yielded. While the Democrats won this most recent political battle, the state’s redistricting war, a fight between the legislature and state Supreme Court that has resulted in four different congressional maps being in passed into law and ultimately rejected since 2010, will likely continue.

The Republican legislature controls the redistricting pen because the North Carolina governor, in this case Democrat Roy Cooper, has no veto power over this subject matter. Democrats control the state Supreme Court with a 4-3 partisan majority, but there is at least an even chance that the balance of power will change after the midterm election.

Two of the Democratic judges are on the ballot this year and no Republicans. One of the two, Justice Robin Hudson, is not seeking re-election, so GOP chances of winning at least one of the two races are enhanced. If they succeed, Republicans will hold the court majority after the first of the year.

Since a court map is only an interim plan, the legislature can replace it at any time. Since the state high court did approve the legislature’s latest version of the state House and Senate maps, Republicans stand a strong chance of maintaining their majorities in both houses. Therefore, re-drawing the congressional map in 2023 should the NC Supreme Court have a different complexion could mean that the GOP would be able to enact a stronger plan next year.

Originally, North Carolina arguably looked to be the Republicans’ most important redistricting state in that it was one of just two places where the party could gain multiple congressional seats and the only one where a potential three-seat increase was within the realm of possibility. The outlook for the final 2022 map, however, gives the Democrats an advantage. It now appears more likely that the Dems will gain one or even two seats in the delegation.

The North Carolina judicial decision is a major blow to House Republican national prospects. While the party still has a good chance of re-taking the majority they lost in the 2018 election, the difficulty factor has increased through adverse court decisions here and in several other states.

Continue reading →

Rep. Taylor Withdraws From Race

Former Texas Collin County Judge (Executive) Keith Self is now the new 3rd District Republican nominee after north Texas area Congressman Van Taylor (R-Plano) decided to withdraw from the runoff election resulting from Tuesday’s primary.

By Jim Ellis

March 4, 2022 — It was on a somewhat surprising note that north Texas area Congressman Van Taylor (R-Plano) was forced into a runoff from Tuesday’s primary election, but Wednesday’s related events proved astonishing.

Rep. Taylor has announced that he is withdrawing from the runoff, making public an extra-marital affair in which he engaged. Apparently, affair rumors began to surface late in the primary contest. Clearly knowing the story would become public, he admitted the indiscretion and immediately departed the race.

Under Texas election procedure, a candidate qualifying for a runoff election can decline to participate. The concession means the opponent automatically wins the party nomination. Thus, former Collin County Judge (Executive) Keith Self is the new 3rd District Republican nominee with an accompanying ticket to Washington, DC after the Nov. 8 election.

Taylor only secured 48.7 percent of the vote in Tuesday’s primary, meaning that a majority of Republican primary voters chose another candidate. This is never a good sign for any incumbent and the chief reason that most incumbents fail when forced to the secondary election. Adding the personal baggage obviously told Rep. Taylor that his re-election chances were irreparably diminished.

Self is a retired career West Point Academy Army officer who placed second in the primary with 27.1 percent, outlasting third-place finisher Suzanne Harp, a hard-charging businesswoman who proved to be surprisingly strong. The new congressional nominee presided over Collin County, an entity with now more than 1 million people, for three terms and chose to retire in 2018. In the congressional primary, he campaigned to Rep. Taylor’s right.

Continue reading →

Four More Reps Departing

By Jim Ellis

March 2, 2022 — Sen. Jim Inhofe’s (R-OK) impending resignation has begun an Oklahoma game of political musical chairs. One member of the Sooner State US House delegation announced that he will run in the special election, and another is soon expected to follow suit.

A third member, a committee chairman from Florida, announced that he will resign to become CEO of an advocacy organization. Finally, a freshman from Hawaii is sending signals that he won’t seek a second term.

Oklahoma Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-Westville) is now a US Senate candidate, formally entering the special election to succeed resigning Sen. Inhofe. Inhofe will serve through the balance of this year, with his successor coming from the regular election calendar and taking office at the beginning of the next Congress.

Rep. Mullin announced his statewide intentions Monday, and his move will create a crowded Republican primary in the state’s easternmost congressional district, a newly drawn 2nd CD that would have supported former President Donald Trump with a whopping 76-22 percent margin.

Reports suggest that two-term Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa) will also soon join the Senate race and risk his safely Republican district anchored in the state’s second largest city of Tulsa. Both will oppose now-former Inhofe chief of staff Luke Holland, whom the senator is publicly supporting.

Additionally, state Sen. Nathan Dahm (R-Broken Arrow), who was challenging Sen. James Lankford in the regular Senate election, said that he, too, will switch to the open special election. Sen. Lankford’s other primary opponent, pastor Jackson Lahmeyer, indicated that he will also likely move to the open special election contest. Former state House Speaker and 2016 US Senate candidate T.W. Shannon is another potential Republican Senate candidate.

As sitting members, both Reps. Mullin and Hern can transfer their federal money raised for their House campaigns to a Senate committee. At the end of the year, Rep. Mullin had more than $944,000 in his account, and Rep. Hern just under $560,000. State Sen. Dahm had just under $83,000 in his US Senate campaign account. It is clear the Oklahoma Senate primary will become a major nomination campaign.

The Sooner State candidate filing deadline is April 15 for the June 28 primary election. Should no candidate receive majority support, which is a likelihood, a runoff election between the top two finishers will be held on Aug. 23.

Also, Florida Rep. Ted Deutch (D-Boca Raton), chairman of the House Ethics Committee, announced on Monday that he will be leaving Congress when the House recesses to accept a position to run the American Jewish Committee advocacy organization.

Deutch first came to the House when winning a 2010 special election after then-Rep. Robert Wexler (D) resigned the seat, and leaves what is now a safely Democratic domain in which over 80 percent of the constituency lies in Broward County and the other 20 percent in Palm Beach County. The current 22nd District supported President Biden, 57-42 percent, but with redistricting still not completed in Florida Republican map drawers may find it more appealing to significantly change the district boundaries with no incumbent on the succeeding ballot.

Continue reading →

Democrats Score in Pennsylvania and North Carolina Redistricting

Click on above map or this link to see an interactive Pennsylvania redistricting map on: FiveThirtyEight

By Jim Ellis

Feb. 25, 2022 — Democrats notched major gains as courts in Pennsylvania and North Carolina Wednesday chose maps that will largely favor their party as we move toward the midterm elections in November.

The Pennsylvania State Supreme Court, to no one’s surprise, since they have consistently ruled as a partisan Democratic panel, adopted on a 4-3 vote a new congressional map that will cost sophomore Rep. Fred Keller (R-Middleburg) his current seat, but does give the Republicans a rather surprising chance to convert two seats in the eastern part of the state.

Though Reps. Susan Wild (D-Allentown) and Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton) must still be regarded as clear favorites for re-election, they will again find themselves embroiled in highly competitive battles come November.

All other PA incumbents appear in strong shape for re-election. Additionally, the two open Democratic seats in the Pittsburgh area have been restored, both the downtown district from which Rep. Mike Doyle (D-Pittsburgh) is retiring, now numbered 12, and the western Allegheny County 17th CD that Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pittsburgh) is vacating to run for the Senate.

The current Keller seat, labeled District 12, is a safe Republican district that stretches from just west of Harrisburg in Perry County all the way to the New York border. The population anchor is Lycoming County and the city of Williamsport, home of the Little League World Series. Keller won a 2019 special election after then-Rep. Tom Marino (R) resigned the seat to accept an offer in the private sector.

The new map splits the current 12th District into three seats, and places Rep. Keller’s home in veteran Rep. Glenn “G.T.” Thompson’s (R-Howard) 15th CD. Overlaying the current map over the new plan, Keller sees that 40 percent of his district lies within the confines of Rep. Thompson’s seat; but the congressman announced late Wednesday night that he will instead challenge Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Dallas) in the new 9th District. Approximately 34 percent of Keller’s current district moved to the new 9th with the new map, as compared to Meuser having more than 60 percent carryover territory.

Assuming Keller follows through, this will become the seventh intra-party pairing, and the fourth involving Republicans.

In eastern Pennsylvania, the adopted map attempts to make Rep. Cartwright’s 8th District a bit more Democratic, but it comes at the potential expense of District 7’s Rep. Wild, who won re-election in the last cycle with only a 52-48 percent spread over businesswoman and former Lehigh County Commissioner Lisa Scheller (R). According to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, the new 7th rates as a R+4, which is down from the EVEN rating the seat held under the current map.

On the other hand, Dave’s Redistricting App records the Democratic percentage at 50.1 for the new PA-7 compared to the Republican 47.4. Rep. Cartwright sees his 8th District hold a 49.7 – 47.6 percent split in favor of the Democrats, but the FiveThirtyEight rating is R+8. Even what appears to be a fairly lofty figure to overcome, however, is still a tick down from the R+9 in the current district that Cartwright carried 52-48 percent in 2020.
Continue reading →

Redistricting After-Effects

Click the map above or this link to go to an interactive version: Dave’s Redistricting App

By Jim Ellis

Feb. 24, 2022 — As more states complete their redistricting process and additional data becomes available, we are beginning to catch a glimpse of each party’s path to either keeping or re-claiming the House majority in the coming midterm election.

The FiveThirtyEight statistical organization along with the Dave’s Redistricting App operation are the two data groups that are charting each district as the states complete their decennial task of drawing new congressional district boundaries.

At this point, we have usable projection data from the two organizations in 350 of the nation’s 435 congressional districts, meaning newly completed maps in all but eight states. (FiveThirtyEight has not yet analyzed the new North Carolina map because the court has not yet given final approval, but Dave’s App has calculated based upon the version now before the judicial panel.) As an aside, several of the outstanding states are large, including Florida (28 congressional districts), Ohio (15 CDs: map was complete but rejected before the state Supreme Court), and Pennsylvania (17 CDs).

At this point we can see, after analyzing each of the 350 completed districts, that redistricting in and of itself will return only a narrow advantage to one party or the other. Considering the still incomplete outstanding states, it is unclear which political entity may earn a slight advantage once the entire process is finalized. Currently, newly created maps are complete (or pending court approval) in 42 states, including five of the six at-large domains whose single-state districts are included in the aforementioned aggregate number.

The FiveThirtyEight projections and Dave’s Redistricting App agree on party advantage in 344 of the completed districts even though they used different mathematical formulas and election complexion to arrive at their conclusions. Therefore, the assigned D or R-plus ratings from FiveThirtyEight consistently align with Dave’s numerical projections for Democratic and Republican strength in each of the 344 CDs.

Of the six districts where the two organizations disagree over party advantage, in each of the half-dozen CDs, the FiveThirtyEight data has projected a stronger Republican number. Three of the six lie in the state of Michigan.

The conflicting districts are:

STATE-DIST	MEMBER	FiveThirtyEight	DAVE R	DAVE D
CO-8	NEW SEAT	R+3	46.91%	48.24%
MI-7	SLOTKIN, ELISSA	R+4	47.75%	49.18%
MI-8	KILDEE, DAN	R+1	46.05%	50.84%
MI-10	CREATED SEAT	R+6	47.82%	49.44%
TX-15	CREATED SEAT	EVEN	46.73%	51.02%
VA-2	LURIA, ELAINE	R+6	48.35%	49.58%

(Note: a “New Seat” is one drawn in a state that was awarded an extra seat, or two in the case of Texas, through national reapportionment. A “created seat” is a new open district that came as a result of the redistricting process.)

Totaling the 344 districts where FiveThirtyEight and the Dave’s App are in agreement as to party advantage, the Democrats would gain 12 Republican, new, or created districts; while the GOP would gain 10 Democratic, new, or created seats.

Continue reading →

North Carolina Redistricting II

2022 North Carolina Congressional Redistricting Map (click on image or here to go to interactive map: Dave’s Redistricting App)

By Jim Ellis

Feb. 23 2022 — Both houses of the North Carolina state legislature have now passed a new congressional map to replace the original version that the state Supreme Court previously rejected.

The new plan now undergoes judicial review as early as tomorrow before final enactment. The legislators agreed upon a plan to meet the pre-determined judicial schedule. The districts must be set to meet an impending March 4 candidate filing deadline for the March 8 primary that was initially postponed to May 17. Any further redistricting delays will likely move the primary once more, this time to June 7.

The high court struck the plan because the justices determined the map was a political gerrymander and, on the original map, that Democrats were under-represented.

The previous map would likely have produced 10 Republican victories as opposed to four Democratic wins. The current division in 8R-5D. The state gained a new seat in national reapportionment, thus increasing the Tar Heel state delegation to 14 members.

The proposed map is certainly more competitive. Preliminary analysis suggests that the Republican nominee would be favored in six of the seats and the Democrats four, with an additional four being cast into a highly marginal category.

The legislature also restored the previous numbers to the districts, making statistical comparisons easier to understand. The members receiving what should be favorable districts are: Reps. Deborah Ross (D-Raleigh; District 2), Greg Murphy (R-Greenville; District 3), Virginia Foxx (R-Banner Elk; District 5), Richard Hudson (R-Concord; District 8), Dan Bishop (R-Union County; District 9), Patrick McHenry (R-Lake Norman; District 10), Madison Cawthorn (R-Hendersonville/Asheville; District 11), and Alma Adams (D-Charlotte; District 12).

Democrats would then be favored in open District 1 (Rep. G.K. Butterfield (D-Wilson) retiring) and open District 4 (Rep. David Price (D-Chapel Hill) retiring).

Incumbents relegated to highly competitive seats are Reps. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro; District 6) and David Rouzer (R-Wilmington; District 7). The Dave’s Redistricting App statistical organization rates the Manning 6th District as a seat having a voting pattern that divides the two parties by less than one percentage point: 49.44 percent for Republicans and 49.18 percent for Democrats. The Rouzer District 7 breaks similarly: 49.39 percent for the Democrats and 49.04 percent for Republicans.

According to the FiveThirtyEight statistical organization that has not yet scored the new plan, the previous Manning 6th District rated as a D+21 and the Rouzer 7th CD, an identical partisan spread of R+21. Therefore, these two districts going to an even rating clearly changes the entire map’s outlook, and obviously so for this pair of incumbents.

Continue reading →

House Incumbent Primaries, Part II: Democrats

By Jim Ellis

Feb. 21, 2022 — Part II of our incumbents’ primary challenges report concentrates on the Democratic members who find themselves in serious nomination contests. (Note: Part I — the Republicans — was published Friday. Please scroll down to read.) Nine such situations are covered in this update, with one of them, the Texas race of veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) to be decided on March 1.

GA-7: Dem Pairing

Primary: May 24
Runoff: July 26

Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-Suwanee)
Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta)
• Bourdeaux Cash-on-Hand (Dec. 31, 2021): $2,005,771
• McBath Cash-on-Hand (Dec. 31, 2021): $2,452,731
FiveThirtyEight Statistical Rating: D+16
Dave’s Redistricting App Historical Voting: 58.4% D

Republicans held the redistricting pen in Georgia and after losing two Atlanta metropolitan districts in consecutive elections, it was clear the GOP map drawers were going to take one back. That translated into loading Democrats from the previously Republican 6th District into the transitioning 7th CD.

Along with bringing more Democrats into the 7th, the 6th District incumbent, Rep. McBath, decided to join them. Instead of fighting for re-election in a new Republican 6th District (R+24), she moved south to challenge freshman Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux in the party primary. As you can see from the cash-on-hand totals above, both incumbents are well-heeled financially, so a major campaign is underway.

Also in the Democratic field is state Rep. Donna McLeod (D-Lawrenceville), who points out that she is the only one of the three that actually lives in the 7th CD. Her campaign has been slow to begin, so it is doubtful that she will be much of a factor, and probably will not draw enough support to force the two congressional incumbents into a runoff. Therefore, it is likely that this pairing will be settled in the May 24 primary.

Among carryover constituents Rep. Bourdeaux has a big advantage in seeing a majority of her current 7th District constituency (57 percent) remaining in the new 7th. McBath, however, sees only 12.1 percent carryover from her 6th District. The larger Democratic influx came from Rep. Hank Johnson’s 4th CD, as 26 percent of his constituency was transferred to the new 7th.

On the other hand, the new 7th is overwhelmingly minority: 29.8 percent black, 21.3 percent Hispanic, and 15.8 percent Asian. Thus, the demographics could help Rep. McBath, who is African American. Her strength within the party’s leftward faction is also a benefit in a primary contest. With each incumbent showing similar strength levels, this will be an interesting race to watch on May 24.

GA-13: Rep. David Scott

Primary: May 24
Runoff: July 26
• Scott Cash-on-Hand (Dec. 31, 2021): $1,107,286
FiveThirtyEight Statistical Rating: D+52
Dave’s Redistricting App Historical Voting: 77.9% D

After only scoring 52.9 percent in the 2020 Democratic primary against three opponents, Rep. David Scott’s (D-Atlanta) 2022 race may be even more serious. Opposing him in this election are two candidates with an election track record, former state senator and 2017 Atlanta mayoral candidate Vincent Fort, and South Fulton City Councilman Mark Baker. The latter man bills himself as the “strongest progressive” in the race, but ex-Sen. Fort was well entrenched with the Bernie Sanders campaign.

Therefore, both opponents are attacking Rep. Scott from the left, which should help him split the opposition vote. Whether such a split will be enough to again allow him to capture majority support in the May 24 primary may be another question. Rep. Scott has long been attacked over not being further to the left on the ideological spectrum, which could again be a problem for him in a district that is overwhelmingly Democratic. Neither Baker nor Fort filed an FEC report at the end of the 2021, meaning they are behind on fundraising.

Rep. Scott must still be rated as the favorite to prevail, but this is another contest that will merit attention on May 24.

IL-6: Dem Pairing

Primary: June 28

Rep. Sean Casten (D-Downers Grove)
Rep. Marie Newman (D-La Grange)
• Casten Cash-on-Hand (Dec. 31, 2021): $1,580,171
• Newman Cash-on-Hand (Dec. 31, 2021): $573,120
FiveThirtyEight Statistical Rating: D+6
Dave’s Redistricting App Historical Voting: 51.4% D

The Illinois race is the second of the three Democratic congressional pairings, and it features sophomore Rep. Casten and freshman Rep. Newman. This particular pairing came about because of complaints that a second Hispanic seat should be drawn in Chicago.

Fearing a loss in court, the Democratic legislative leadership acquiesced and drew a new open 3rd District that is 44 percent Hispanic. As a result, Rep. Newman’s home was placed in Rep. Chuy Garcia’s (D-Chicago) 4th District, but she pivoted to run in the 6th against Rep. Casten. Her move made sense because 43 percent of her constituency was drawn into the new 6th District versus just 24 percent coming from Rep. Casten’s current 6th District.

While Casten has a financial advantage and the support of most of the Chicago Democratic establishment, Rep. Newman is a darling of the far left and will likely attract the more ideological voter that tends to dominate primary voting in both parties.

The aspect of this race that attracts little attention is that the pairing winner is not necessarily home free in the general election. With the Illinois gerrymander drawing 14 Democratic seats of 17 total districts, some of the Dem seats are weak. The 6th, with a D+6 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data entity, is one of those. Therefore, a divisive primary could make the eventual Republican nominee even more viable in the general election.

This draw was not favorable to either Democratic incumbent, and we will see a spirited fight between now and the June 28 primary.
Continue reading →

House Incumbent Primaries, Part I: Republicans

By Jim Ellis

Feb. 18, 2022 — As the states complete their individual redistricting processes and candidate filing deadlines appear on the political horizon, some incumbents find themselves facing serious primary challenges. Today, we look at Republican nomination situations in states where redistricting is complete, and Monday next week, we’ll look at the Democrats.

CA-5: Rep. Tom McClintock

Primary: June 7 (Jungle)

• McClintock Cash-on-Hand (Dec. 31, 2021): $372,569
FiveThirtyEight Statistical Rating: R+17
Dave’s Redistricting App Historical Voting: 56.6% R

The California Citizens Redistricting Commission made significant changes to the Golden State congressional map. As a result, veteran northern California Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove) had his choice of two districts, one less Republican that contained more of his home area, and the other more strongly favoring the GOP but stretched from the Sacramento suburbs all the way to the Fresno area. McClintock chose the latter.

The congressman’s most serious opponent is Fresno County Supervisor Nathan Magsig (R). California imposes a jungle primary system meaning that the top two finishers in the June qualifying election advance to the general election. Considering the Republican trends in this district, it is wholly possible that both Rep. McClintock and Supervisor Magsig will advance into the general election, especially with three Democratic candidates dividing the liberal base.

IL-15: GOP Pairing

Primary: June 28

Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville)
Rep. Mary Miller (R-Oakland)
• Davis Cash-on-Hand (Dec. 31, 2021): $1,234,171
• Miller Cash-on-Hand (Dec. 31, 2021): $414,795
FiveThirtyEight Statistical Rating: R+42
Dave’s Redistricting App Historical Voting: 64.6% R

The Illinois Democratic gerrymander created a new uber-safe Republican 15th District that attracted both Reps. Rodney Davis and Mary Miller. Therefore, the new member here will be chosen in the June 28 Republican primary.

The race is shaping up as a clear GOP establishment versus movement conservative contest. Virtually all of the state and national Republican leaders, including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, have endorsed Davis. All of the movement right-of-center groups such as the Club for Growth and Freedom Works, along with former President Donald Trump, have endorsed Rep. Miller.

Davis also has a major fundraising advantage. Miller, on the other hand, sees 31 percent of her constituents carrying over to the new 15th, versus 28 percent for Davis. Rep. Darin LaHood (R-Peoria) has the largest contingent of current constituents in the new IL-15 (36 percent) but he is running for re-election in the new 16th CD.

MI-4: GOP Pairing

Primary: Aug. 2

Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland)
Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph)
• Huizenga Cash-on-Hand (Dec. 31, 2021): $1,141,056
• Upton Cash-on-Hand (Dec. 31, 2021): $1,467,055
FiveThirtyEight Statistical Rating: R+9
Dave’s Redistricting App Historical Voting: 51.6% R

With Michigan losing a seat in reapportionment, two of the state’s western members were destined to be paired. The new 4th District features a potential contest between Reps. Huizenga and Upton, though the latter man has not yet decided whether to seek re-election. A third candidate, state Rep. Steve Carra (R-Kalamazoo), who carries former President Trump’s endorsement, is also in the race.

Carra is not likely to be a major factor because he represents very little of the new 4th Congressional District constituency in the state legislature. This race will come down to Rep. Upton’s decision whether to seek a 19th term in the House or retire. If he runs, this will be a major summer primary contest. Should he retire, Rep. Huizenga becomes the prohibitive favorite in the primary, with the inside track for the general election, though the new 4th is more competitive than his current 2nd CD.

MS-4: Rep. Steven Palazzo

Primary: June 7 | Runoff: June 28

• Palazzo Cash-on-Hand (Dec. 31, 2021): $ 385,211
FiveThirtyEight Statistical Rating: R+42
Dave’s Redistricting App Historical Voting: 66.5% R

A congressional ethics investigation into Rep. Steven Palazzo’s (R-Biloxi) use of campaign funds is an obvious negative as he strives to win re-nomination for a seventh term.

The investigation prompted state Sen. Brice Wiggins (R-Ocean Springs) and Jackson County Sheriff Mike Ezell to launch a primary challenge against the congressman, in addition to four others. Local business owner Carl Boyanton has thrown $550,000 of his own money into his campaign, making him a factor, too. This field could grow or retract as the March 1 candidate filing deadline looms on the political horizon.

It remains to be seen whether the investigation hinders Rep. Palazzo to the point of forcing him into a runoff — he has survived other tough primary challenges with larger than expected percentages — but the possibility of going to a secondary vote is certainly real. Should Palazzo be forced into a runoff, his re-nomination could be in serious jeopardy.
Continue reading →

New York Rep. Kathleen Rice
Won’t Seek Re-Election

By Jim Ellis

New York Democratic Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-Garden City)

Feb. 17, 2022 — Four-term New York Democratic Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-Garden City) announced Tuesday, on her 57th birthday, that she will retire from Congress. Saying, “I have always believed that holding political office is neither a destiny nor a right. As elected officials, we must give all we have and then know when it is time to allow others to serve,” the congresswoman stated in her retirement release.

Prior to her election to the US House in 2014, Rice served as Nassau County District Attorney for 10 years after being a member of the prosecutorial staff. Rep. Rice is the 30th Democrat to not seek re-election to the House. The total number of open seats now rises to 51, when counting the open Democratic and Republican districts, and the seats created through reapportionment and redistricting from the various states.

The Rice retirement creates a fourth open seat in the NY delegation, and she is the fifth Empire State member to leave the House at the end of the current term. Rep. Tom Reed (R-Corning) announced his retirement early in the session, but his 23rd District is not technically an open seat because Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-New Hartford) has chosen to run there since her 22nd District was combined with retiring Rep. John Katko’s (R-Syracuse) CD to make a new Democratic seat.

Three of the state’s four open seats appear on Long Island. In addition to Rice’s 4th District, the 1st and 3rd are also open because Reps. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) and Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) are both running for governor. This means that freshman Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-Sayville) will be the most senior Long Island member in the next Congress.

While redistricting changed Rep. Zeldin’s 1st District into a more Democratic-friendly seat, Rep. Garbarino’s south shore Long Island seat became more Republican. Overall, the four Long Island districts needed to gain more than 148,000 new residents to meet the New York per district population goal of 776,971 individuals, or an average of adding just over 37,000 people per CD.

Though three of the four LI seats are constructed to elect a Democrat, the margins are not so strong as to eliminate competition. In wave Republican election years, and 2022 may be such, these open seats will be in play.

According to the FiveThirtyEight data operation, Rep. Zeldin’s 1st District moves from a R+10 to a D+6. Dave’s Redistricting App projects the composite Democratic vote to be 57.0 percent as compared to just 41.0 percent for Republicans. President Biden would have carried the new 1st, which moves east to west from the Hamptons to Bethpage State Park, by a 10.8 percent margin.

Continue reading →