Category Archives: Governor

It’s Official for Candidates in PA, OR

Two more states now have official 2014 candidates as office seekers in Pennsylvania and Oregon made their political intentions official this week.

Pennsylvania

Gov. Tom Corbett (R) is facing one Republican primary challenger, while six Democrats will battle for their party’s nomination to be decided May 20. The eventual Democrat standard bearer will have a strong chance of unseating Corbett, who continues to post some of the worst job approval ratings in the country.

With businessman Tom Wolf out to an early lead after unleashing a major positive and clever media buy, Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D-PA-13), state Treasurer Rob McCord and three others who comprise the Democratic field are forced to play catch-up.

With no US Senate contest in the Keystone  Continue reading >

Wendy Davis’s Potential Problem

While the major news media is covering Sen. John Cornyn’s (R) strong win in Tuesday night’s Texas primary, a different story lies beneath the surface in the Lone Star state’s Democratic gubernatorial primary.

State Sen. Wendy Davis (D-Ft. Worth) easily won her party’s nomination for governor attracting 78.4 percent of the vote, but she did lose 25 counties to an opponent, Reynaldo “Ray” Madrigal, who was virtually a candidate in absentia. Though losing 25 of 237 counties is an insignificant number in and of itself, the location of her under-performing entities is what could pose her an additional general election problem.

It is clear that Sen. Davis begins this race as an underdog to Attorney General Greg Abbott, who captured 91.5 percent of the Republican primary vote. Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to any statewide office since 1990. It hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter carried the state in 1976. Lloyd Bentsen is the last Democratic US senator voted into  Continue reading >

Beauprez Will Run

Former Rep. Bob Beauprez (R-CO-7) filed papers yesterday to again run for governor in Colorado. He left the House to run unsuccessfully for this position in what evolved into the Democratic landslide year of 2006, and now he attempts a comeback. Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) appears vulnerable against what, heretofore, seemed a weak Republican field. A Beauprez entry will change the flow of the campaign.

In 2002, Beauprez claimed a 121-vote victory in the first ever congressional race in what was then Colorado’s new 7th District, located in the Denver suburbs. The seat was drawn to be marginal and the results certainly proved the design. In his first and only re-election, Beauprez notched a 55 percent win.

After the Beauprez announcement, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him quickly ascend to the top of the Republican primary polls. Considering this development, the Colorado gubernatorial campaign becomes more serious.

New Michigan Numbers – Senate, Gov.

The Michigan Senate race is in flux. When Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI) announced his retirement early last year, Rep. Gary Peters (D-MI-14) very quickly solidified himself as the consensus Democratic candidate with the help of the outgoing incumbent and his brother, Rep. Sander Levin (D-MI-9). The early maneuverings provided the Detroit congressman a favorite’s aura for the general election.

Initially, during Levin’s retirement announcement period, Republicans were making no secret of their inability to recruit a contender who they could proclaim as a top-flight candidate. When former two-term Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land came forward, the state and national party leaders continued to search for someone they felt would be stronger. Now, a fourth consecutive poll has forecast Land to be holding a small edge over Rep. Peters, thereby justifying the GOP’s renewed interest in making the Wolverine State a top Senatorial target.

According to the Michigan-based EPIC-MRA  Continue reading >

Filings Close in Several States

Alabama (Primary: June 3; Run-off: July 15)

The most notable point from the Alabama candidate filings is that four of the state’s six House members seeking re-election will be running unopposed this November. Only representatives Martha Roby (R-AL-2) and Mike Rogers (R-AL-3) have Democratic opposition, but both appear headed for little trouble in securing re-election.

Representatives Robert Aderholt (R-AL-4), Mo Brooks (R-AL-5), and Terri Sewell (D-AL-7) all drew primary opponents. Rep. Sewell’s challenger seems to be the strongest intra-party candidate. Former Birmingham city attorney Tamara Harris Johnson filed in the Democratic primary, but the incumbent remains the heavy favorite for renomination. In all three of these cases, once the individuals win their respective party primaries, the political opposition ends.

The governor’s race yielded an interesting political twist. Former Rep. Parker Griffith, who was elected to the 5th District in 2008 as a Democrat but became a Republican  Continue reading >

In Colorado, When You’re Up, You’re Down

Yesterday, we published a piece analyzing the University of New Hampshire’s poll and made special note of their readings for US Reps. Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH-1) and Ann McLane Kuster (D-NH-2). The study results were unusual in the fact that they showed Shea-Porter’s job approval rising, but her ballot test declining, while projecting Kuster in the exact opposite position.

Now, a new poll from Quinnipiac University (Jan. 29-Feb. 2; 1,139 registered Colorado voters) finds Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) in a similar position to Rep. Shea-Porter. The governor’s job approval has expanded to a solid 52:39 percent favorable to unfavorable, which is a strong improvement when compared to the numbers he was posting in the latter part of 2013. Added to his personal favorability of 47:37 percent positive to negative, one would expect that his ballot performance would be likewise improving, yet his standing continues to lag according to this data.

To further explain, while generally holding  Continue reading >

Incumbents in Trouble in Ark., Mich.; Clark Wins in Mass.

Arkansas

A new poll was just released for the Arkansas Senate race, the results of which give challenger Rep. Tom Cotton (R) a discernible seven-point lead over incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor (D). According to The Polling Company, Inc./Woman Trend for the Citizens United Political Victory Fund (Dec. 6-7; 400 registered Arkansas voters) Rep. Cotton projects to a 48-41 percent advantage. In an early race that features both candidates already airing television ads, this poll is the first to give either man a significant lead beyond the margin of error.

The Arkansas Senate race so far is performing relative to the national swing. When the Democrats were soaring during the government shutdown, Pryor took the lead. Now that Republicans are rebounding nationally, Cotton has likewise come back to erase his previous deficit and move significantly past the incumbent.

The early polling and trends reflecting the  Continue reading >