Category Archives: Governor

“Blue Wave” Absent in Arizona Races

By Jim Ellis

L-R -- Arizona Reps. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) and Martha McSally (R-Tucson)

From left to right, Arizona Reps. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) and Martha McSally (R-Tucson)

Nov. 2, 2018 — It was always believed that the Grand Canyon State’s open Senate race between Reps. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) and Martha McSally (R-Tucson) would be one of the best campaigns in the country, and no one should be disappointed.

As we approach Election Day, differing indicators have presented themselves regarding who might win this toss-up campaign. Five polls have been released covering the period between Oct. 23-29. Three of the five give Rep. Sinema a slight lead, while one projects a tie.

YouGov/CBS News (Oct. 23-26; 972 likely Arizona voters) and Marist College/NBC News (Oct. 23-27; 506 likely Arizona voters) both post the Democratic nominee to identical 47-44 percent leads. CNN/SSRS (Oct. 24-29; 702 likely Arizona voters) finds Sinema’s edge to be 51-47 percent. But HighGround Public Affairs (Oct. 26-28; 400 likely Arizona voters) sees Rep. McSally ahead, 47-45 percent. Fox News (Oct. 27-29; 643 likely Arizona voters) came to a third conclusion, a 46-46 percent tie.

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Ohio: Contrasting Polls

By Jim Ellis

Nov. 1, 2018 — The Buckeye State of Ohio is viewed as one of the country’s quintessential swing states. In 2016, however, the state exceeded polling and even Republican expectations in their presidential vote, as President Trump won a decisive 52-44 percent victory over Hillary Clinton.

Some suggested the Trump vote was an indication that the state could be moving more definitively to the political right, but new surveys suggest the Buckeye electorate is returning to its previous swing vote history.

Still, Ohio proves a reliable national political barometer. In both 2008 and 2012, the electorate here voted for President Obama after twice after backing President George W. Bush in his two elections. The state previously favored President Bill Clinton in his two successful national campaigns. In fact, the last time Ohioans failed to vote for the winning presidential candidate came in 1960 when the state awarded its electoral votes to Republican Richard Nixon in his national losing effort against John F. Kennedy.

Two new polls were released this week that paint different pictures of the Ohio electorate’s current state. Some of the results are curious to the point of questioning the polling reliability or not being able to adequately determine how the governor’s race will end and failing to understand the wide discrepancy in US Senate polling projections.

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The Governors’ Races & Veto Power

By Jim Ellis

Oct. 29, 2018 — The 2018 election cycle features 36 gubernatorial campaigns, 26 of which have federal redistricting ramifications. The ones that don’t are at-large congressional district states (Alaska, South Dakota, Vermont, Wyoming) or will be after the next reapportionment (Rhode Island), those that employ redistricting commissions (Arizona, California, Hawaii, Idaho), or the multi-district state where the governor is only awarded a two-year term (New Hampshire).

Here is a breakdown of where things stand in the upcoming election in the 26 states where the governor will have redistricting veto power:

PURE TOSS UPS

FLORIDA: Mayor Andrew Gillum (D) vs. Ex-US Rep. Ron DeSantis (R)
• Most Recent Polls: Gravis Marketing (Oct. 22-23): Gillum 51 percent, DeSantis 46 percent
Gray/Strategic Research (Oct. 16-23): DeSantis 48 percent; Gillum 45 percent

GEORGIA: Sec/State Brian Kemp (R) vs. Ex-state Rep. Stacey Abrams (D)
• Most Recent Poll: NBC News/Marist (Oct. 14-18): Kemp 49 percent; Abrams 47 percent

IOWA: Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) vs. Businessman Fred Hubbell (D)
• Most Recent Poll: Selzer & Co (Sept. 17-20): Hubbell 43 percent; Reynolds 41 percent

KANSAS: Sec of State Kris Kobach (R) vs. State Rep. Laura Kelly (D) & Greg Orman (I)
• Recent Poll: Public Policy Polling (Oct. 19-20): Kobach 41 percent; Kelly 41 percent; Orman 10 percent

NEVADA: Attorney Gen Adam Laxalt (R) vs. Commissioner Steve Sisolak (D)
• Most Recent Poll: Emerson College (Oct. 10-12): Laxalt 46 percent; Sisolak 41 percent

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Feinstein Still Weak; Gas Tax Polling

By Jim Ellis

California Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D)

Oct. 18, 2018 — Survey USA released a poll of the California electorate, one more political study that finds Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) failing to establish command in her race against fellow Democrat Kevin de Leon, a Los Angeles state senator.

The S-USA data (Oct. 12-14; 1,200 California adults; 964 registered California voters; 762 likely California voters) sees Feinstein again locked at 40 percent support versus 26 percent for de Leon. This is the sixth survey from four different pollsters that finds the Senator in the mid to low 40s since the June 5th jungle primary. But de Leon fares much worse, failing to break 30 percent in any of the half-dozen ballot test questions.

While all of the research suggests that Sen. Feinstein is politically weak, she will not lose this race. Though she brought in only $982,000 for the third quarter — a low number when campaigning in a state the size of California and understanding that many Democratic House candidates have brought in millions during the same period — de Leon raised just $254,000 and has a mere $309,000 cash-on-hand for the period ending Sept. 30. This is a low figure for a congressional race, let alone for a place that’s 53 times as large as a single CD.

California Senate President Kevin de Leon (D-Los Angeles)

The other feature potentially making the California Senate race a wild-card contest is the vote drop-off that we will see when comparing turnout for this office to the rest of the statewide ballot.

In 2016, when two Democrats were competing for an open Senate seat — the now-Sen. Kamala Harris vs. then-Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Garden Grove) — fewer votes were cast for that contest than in any other statewide election, including all of the ballot propositions. In fact, over 1.9 million more people voted in the presidential race than in the Senate race, and 1.3 million more chose to decide the last ballot initiative that banned single-use plastic bottles.

What occurred was a plethora of Republican voters simply skipping the Senate race rather than supporting one of the two Democrats. With de Leon running to the ideological left of Feinstein the Republican vote will likely drop even further, which becomes an interesting factor.

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The Nevada Sway

By Jim Ellis

Oct. 17, 2018 — A new Emerson College poll (Oct. 10-12; 625 likely Nevada voters) projects Sen. Dean Heller (R) to a 48-41 percent lead over freshman Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Henderson), which is the largest lead for either candidate since the June 12th primary.

For most of the election cycle, this race has been rated as a toss-up campaign, but most prognosticators believed it would eventually tilt toward the Democrats yielding a challenger victory.

Viewed as a state trending Democratic because of Hillary Clinton’s 48-45 percent victory in the most recent presidential campaign added to President Obama winning here in both of his elections: 52-46 percent over Mitt Romney, and in a 55-43 percent landslide over John McCain, the 2014 Republican sweep from the governor’s race through the state legislative campaigns has generally been disregarded as an anomaly.

Outgoing Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) has strong approval ratings and would clearly be a re-election favorite if the state did not have a term limit law. The governor is playing an interesting role in this year’s campaign. He is featured prominently in Sen. Heller’s advertising but refuses to endorse Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) as his successor because the latter man refuses to support the Sandoval tax program, which is becoming the governor’s legacy as Nevada’s chief executive.

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A Polling Dichotomy in Wisconsin

By Jim Ellis

Superintendent of public instruction, Tony Evers (D), left, and Gov. Scott Walker (R)

Sept. 15, 2018 — Two succeeding polls were just released with one showing Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) barely leading in his fight for a third term, while another predicts he will be blown out. Yet, the two seemingly contradictory polls both find an almost identical Senate race status.

NBC News/Marist College went into the field during the period of Sept. 30-Oct. 3 (943 Wisconsin adults; 781 registered Wisconsin voters; 571 likely voters) and found Democratic superintendent of public instruction, Tony Evers, leading Gov. Walker by a whopping 53-43 pecent among the likeliest of voters (52-43 percent within the registered voter segment). But, Marquette University Law School, a prolific Wisconsin pollster since the 2012 election cycle, actually finds the governor clinging to a one-point, 47-46 percent edge in their just-released survey (Oct. 3-7; 1,000 registered Wisconsin voters; 799 likely voters).

Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D), left, and state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R-Brookfield)

While the two pollsters are far apart in how they see the governor’s race, they are very consistent in projecting the US Senate contest between first-term incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) and state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R-Brookfield). NBC/Marist gives Sen. Baldwin a 54-40 percent advantage within their likely voters cell, while Marquette finds a similar 53-42 percent spread.

A simple explanation suggests that the governor’s race is quite volatile while the Senate campaign is virtually decided. The two polls were run consecutively with NBC/Marist ending on Oct. 3 and Marquette beginning on that day. Obviously, this means the Marquette data is the most recent.

The Marquette sampling universe looks to be the stronger, as both the registered and likely voter cells are larger than NBC/Marist’s. Additionally, since Marquette exclusively polls the Wisconsin electorate and does so on what appears to be a quarterly basis but more frequently when closer to an election, their knowledge of the voter base is likely superior to NBC/Marist, which is a national pollster. Therefore, the greater local knowledge likely provides them a superior ability to better pull a reflective sample.

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New Nevada Data

By Jim Ellis

Oct. 11, 2018 — The new NBC News/Marist College survey (Sept. 30-Oct. 3; 920 NV residents; 780 registered Nevada voters; 574 likely Nevada voters) detects movement toward the Republicans in the two major Nevada statewide races (governor and senator), while keeping both contests in the pure toss-up column.

Marist College is an “A” rated pollster from the 538 statistical analysis organization and has partnered with NBC News since the 2012 election. Already releasing several statewide polls this year, Marist tested the Nevada electorate knowing that Sen. Dean Heller (R) is embroiled in a tough re-election campaign against freshman Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Henderson), while the open governor’s race, featuring Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) and Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak (D), had begun to turn toward the latter.

According to the NBC/Marist ballot test results, Sen. Heller posts a 46-44 percent edge among likely voters and an almost identical 45-43 percent within the registered voter sample. When the Libertarian Party nominee is added and a question asking whether any of the candidates are satisfactory, Sen. Heller maintains the lead, 44-42 percent, with eight percent going to Libertarian Tim Hagan, and another two percent saying they want “none of these candidates.” Among registered voters, the respondents split 42-41-8-3 percent in Sen. Heller’s slight favor, with Rep. Rosen closely following, and Hagan and “none of the above” trailing respectively.

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Nevada’s Polling Contradiction

By Jim Ellis

Sept. 19, 2018 — A new survey was just released covering the two Nevada statewide campaigns, and the results are curious.

Gravis Marketing tested the Silver State electorate (Sept. 11-12; 700 likely Nevada voters) and finds consistency with other polling in one race but projects a major change in the other.

Nevada Senate candidate, Rep. Jacky Rosen (D), and Sen. Dean Heller (R)

According to Gravis, Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Henderson) holds a 47-45 percent lead over Sen. Dean Heller (R) in the US Senate campaign. Such a conclusion is well within the range of other published data.

Just as Gravis was beginning their survey process, Suffolk University was ending theirs (Sept. 5-10; 500 likely Nevada voters), and they saw Rep. Rosen holding a similarly close 42-41 percent edge. Suffolk also surveyed in late July (July 24-29; 500 likely Nevada voters) and found Sen. Heller clinging to a one-point 41-40 percent lead. All of these consistent findings suggest the Senate race has been, and continues to be, a pure toss-up.

But the same Gravis polling sample produced a radically different conclusion for the open governor’s race. All other previous data found Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak (D) and Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) locked in a close battle. The same two previous polls cited above for the Senate race, Suffolk University’s Sept. 5-10 survey and their July 24-29 study, actually found Sisolak ahead only 37-35 percent in the former, while Laxalt actually led 42-41 percent in the earlier poll.

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NY State Results; The Fox Polls

By Jim Ellis

Sept. 14, 2018 — Gov. Andrew Cuomo, as predicted, easily won the Democratic gubernatorial primary last night with a 65-35 percent victory over actress Cynthia Nixon. Late polling projected the governor to be breaking the 60 percent threshold with Nixon lagging way behind. He will now have little trouble winning a third term in the general election against the new Republican nominee, Duchess County Executive Marc Molinaro.

US Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney’s (D-Cold Spring/West Point) quest to become the state’s attorney general ended last night. Despite a late poll suggesting he had forged into the lead, Maloney dropped to third position in the actual vote.

The Democratic primary winner was New York City Public Advocate Letitia James, who said that she “ … can’t wait to wake up each and every day, go to the office, sue somebody and then go home,” in her victory speech and stated that she wants to target President Trump, the NRA, and state corruption, captured 38 percent of the Democratic primary vote.

In second, with 30 percent, was frequent Democratic candidate Zephyr Teachout who challenged Gov. Cuomo back in the 2014 party primary. Rep. Maloney drew only 24 percent. He will now return to the congressional campaign trail since he was re-nominated back in the June federal primary.

THE FOX POLLS

Fox News just released a series of five polls in key US Senate states where they find very close races. Fox conducts its surveys jointly through two research entities, a Democratic polling company, Anderson Robbins Research, and the Republican firm of Shaw & Company Research.

All five studies were conducted during the Sept. 8-11 period. The organizations used the live interview method to conduct their data gathering through a combination of landline and cell phone calls. The polling universes begin with a registered voter pool from which likely voter segments are derived. Results are reported for both the larger and more refined polling cells. In all cases, the candidates’ individual approval ratings differed very little between registered voters and likely voters.

Arizona (801 registered Arizona voters; 710 likely voters)
• Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) has a 47-44 percent edge over Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson) among likely voters and 46-42 percent within the broader registered voters universe.
• President Trump’s Arizona job approval rating is 49:49 percent positive to negative. This contrasts with Rep. Sinema’s 52:35 percent index and McSally’s 47:43 percent.

Obviously, the ballot test shows that either candidate can win the race. Rep. McSally has a lesser favorability rating than Rep. Sinema largely because she was attacked in a multi-candidate primary, whereas the latter woman was a consensus Democratic candidate who breezed through the primary without being forced to absorb negative hits.
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New Hampshire Results

By Jim Ellis

Sept. 12, 2018 — The election cycle’s final primary week began yesterday in the Granite State. Tomorrow, Rhode Islanders go to the polls, and on Thursday New Yorkers return to choose state nominees after their federal candidates were selected on June 26.

In the NH governor’s race, former state Sen. Molly Kelly easily defeated ex-Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand to win the Democratic primary. With a turnout of over 100,000 voters, Kelly recorded a 66 percent victory. She will now challenge first-term Gov. Chris Sununu, who was unopposed in the Republican primary.

Two years ago, Sununu, the son of former governor and White House chief of staff John Sununu and brother of ex-senator and congressman John E. Sununu, defeated Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern (D), 49-47 percent. With strong approval ratings, Gov. Sununu begins the general election as a decided favorite to defeat Kelly.

The race, billed as the most competitive battle of the day, proved to be less than a nail-biter. Eleven Democrats were battling for the right to succeed retiring Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-Rochester) as the party nominee for an eastern New Hampshire congressional district that has regularly swung back and forth between the parties since 2006.

Last night, Executive Councilor and restaurant owner Chris Pappas rather easily won the Democratic primary, capturing 42 percent of the vote with the remaining 58 percent spread among the remaining 10. As expected, his closest opponent was Maura Sullivan, a strong fundraiser who was a former US Veterans Affairs Department official in the Obama Administration. She scored 30 percent, but no other candidate even reached the 10 percent plateau.

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