By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 27, 2025
Senate
Graham Platner
The biggest surprise is how badly Gov. Janet Mills fares in a Democratic gubernatorial primary. Gov. Mills recently announced for Senate after being the top recruit prospect for the national Democratic leadership. Yet, in this UNH poll, she trails businessman Graham Platner by a whopping 58-24 percent clip.
Platner is the choice of the party’s Bernie Sanders wing and carries the Vermont Senator’s endorsement. The poll was conducted, however, before damaging information came to light against Platner including the presence of a skull and crossbones tattoo on his chest, which has been tied to Nazi police, and past disparaging remarks made about key Democratic constituencies. Chances are good that the next released Maine survey will show Platner substantially falling.
Irrespective of Platner’s current standing, Gov. Mills performs poorly against a first-time candidate within her own party. While the Governor records a favorable personal approval index (65:16 favorable to unfavorable), she managed to post only a 24 percent vote preference on the related ballot test before the same Democratic sampling universe. This is largely due to her poor job approval rating of 43:55 percent favorable to unfavorable.
The pollsters apparently did not test the general election featuring Sen. Susan Collins (R) individually against the Democrats, but the fact that Gov. Mills fares this poorly in her own primary suggests her standing statewide would be below par.
House
The second surprise comes in the state’s 2nd Congressional District where Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) is facing a challenge from former two-term Gov. Paul LePage (R).
While other polls have found the two locked in a virtual dead heat, the UNH data sees LePage pulling five points ahead of the four-term incumbent, 49-44 percent, which is beyond the stated polling margin of error for this survey (plus or minus 3.1 percent).
From the LePage perspective, the ballot test result should not be considered an unusually positive outlier. In his three statewide races – 2 victories and 1 defeat, the latter at the hands of Gov. Mills in 2022 – LePage carried the 2nd District. Additionally, ME-2 is the most Republican district in the country where the electorate sends a Democrat to the US House.
What is troubling for Rep. Golden and his allies are the responses to the re-elect questions. When asked if Rep. Golden deserves to be re-elected, only 26 percent answered affirmatively while 57 percent said no.
Most of the negative number comes from Republicans, 75 percent of whom said Rep. Golden does not deserve re-election. Such is to be expected, however, in this age of political polarization. A major negative for the Golden camp, however, is that 66 percent of Independents and more than a third (36 percent) of Democrats also say the Congressman “doesn’t deserve re-election.”
The fundraising totals favor Rep. Golden, however. The Congressman has raised over $2.3 million for his 2026 campaign and holds just under $1.7 million cash-on-hand. LePage has attracted $917,000 for the campaign and holds less than half of Golden’s treasury figure at $716,000.
The ME-2 race will be a national campaign and one of the Republicans’ top conversion opportunities. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that LePage will correct the resource imbalance as compared to Rep. Golden’s financial totals either through enhanced national fundraising or with non-connected outside groups coming into the northern Maine district to aid the former Governor’s congressional efforts.
It is clear that both the Maine Senate and 2nd District House campaigns will draw a great deal of national attention during 2026 political prime time. Both eventual winners will be significant players in determining which party will control the legislative power levers in the 120th Congress.
