Tag Archives: Nikki Haley

Good News / Bad News for DeSantis; Pastor Withdraws in Arizona;
A Challenger in GA-13

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Aug. 25, 2023

President

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) Photo by Gage Skidmore

Iowa: Selzer & Company Releases Survey — The Hawkeye State’s proven most accurate pollster, Selzer & Company, released a pre-debate poll in partnership with NBC News and the Des Moines Register newspaper. This research study provides some needed good news for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as his 66 percent positive rating is the best of any presidential candidate, although only one percentage point better than former President Donald Trump.

Trump still leads the first choice ballot test, however, with 42-19-9-6-6 percent split over Gov. DeSantis, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), former Vice President Mike Pence, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, respectively. He tops Gov. DeSantis by only two points when first, second, and “considering” categories are added and assigned an aggregate point value. The Iowa Republican Caucus is scheduled for Jan. 15, 2024.

New Hampshire: DeSantis Drops to Fourth — The Granite State Echelon Insights data (8/15-17; 800 NH likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) sees former President Donald Trump leading the pack of candidates with a rather low support factor of 34 percent. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was second with 14 percent, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy follows in third position at 11 percent support. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis posts a disappointing nine percent.

It is likely the New Hampshire primary will be scheduled for Jan. 23, eight days after the Iowa Caucus and 11 days before the South Carolina Democratic primary. The South Carolina Republicans will vote on Feb. 24, followed by the Michigan primary three days later. Super Tuesday is scheduled for March 5, 2024.

Senate

Nevada: Brown Leads in First Primary Poll — Public Opinion Strategies, polling for the Duty First Super PAC, an organization supporting candidate Sam Brown (R), released the result of their first Nevada Senate Republican primary survey (Public Opinion Strategies; Aug. 15-17; 500 likely Nevada Republican primary voters; live interview). The results find Brown, an Afghan War veteran, leading former state assemblyman and frequent candidate Jim Marchant, 33-15 percent, with five other announced candidates failing to reach even the three percent support plateau.

Brown, the 2022 US Senate candidate who raised over $4 million for his unsuccessful primary effort against former Attorney General Adam Laxalt and now has National Senate Republican Committee chairman Steve Daines’ endorsement, also leads in all segmentation divisions. Most importantly, of the respondents who are familiar with both Brown and Marchant, the former leads the latter by a strong 59-21 percent cut. The Nevada primary is scheduled for June 11, 2024. The eventual Republican nominee will challenge first-term Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) in what promises to be a hotly contested general election campaign.

House

AZ-3: Laura Pastor (D) Withdraws — Phoenix City Councilwoman Laura Pastor (D), whose late father, Ed Pastor (D), represented Phoenix in the US House for 12 terms, announced that she is withdrawing from the open seat race to replace present incumbent Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix). Ms. Pastor says her withdrawal is due to a non-life threatening health issue, but one serious enough to force her from the campaign trail.

With Congressman Gallego running for Senate, the Democratic primary will determine the 3rd District’s next Representative. At this point, four Democrats have announced for the seat including Phoenix City Councilwoman Yassamin Ansari and former state Senate Minority Leader Raquel Teran. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates AZ-3, which is wholly contained within Maricopa County, as D+44. The Arizona primary is late, scheduled for August 6, 2024, so much can happen to change the race between now and the April 8, 2024, candidate filing deadline.

GA-13: Rep. David Scott Draws Dem Primary Challenger — Veteran Georgia US Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) surprised many by recently announcing he would run for a 12th term. Now, he has drawn a Democratic primary challenger. East Point Utility Board chairman Mark Herring did not attack Rep. Scott in his announcement address, only saying he is running to make a “positive difference.” Others are expected to join, thus creating a multi-candidate Democratic primary.

GA-13 is another district where winning the Democratic nomination is tantamount to election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+52. Rep. Scott faced three Democrats in the 2022 congressional primary, winning with 66 percent of the vote. In 2020, however, the outcome was much tighter as he avoided a runoff with just 52.9 percent, again opposite three opponents.

Republicans Debate but Biden Leads

The Fox News Republican debate stage in Milwaukee. / Fox News Photo

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Aug. 24, 2023

President

Republicans Debate: But What About Biden? — While last night’s Republican presidential debate featured a livelier discussion than many expected, a new national poll continues to find that President Joe Biden leads his Republican opposition despite a majority believing he is unfit for the job.

The GOP candidates sans Donald Trump gathered in Milwaukee, debating in the very arena that will host the 2024 Republican National Convention. Post-debate analysis seemed to indicate that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy performed best.

Perhaps the evening’s biggest surprise was who the other candidates attacked and who stood above the fray. Ramaswamy, moving up in the polls to the point where most Republican ballot tests see him in third place if not second, was the participant the others routinely targeted. The harshest attacks came from former Vice President Mike Pence and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley about his inexperience in the political arena and lack of foreign affairs knowledge, respectively.

While pre-debate predictions suggested that Gov. DeSantis would be under heavy attack, no one launched any verbal assault in his direction.

Yesterday, a new YouGov survey for the Economist publication was released. The international online pollster regularly polls for the Economist, featuring long and largely issue-based questionnaires.

This particular survey (Aug. 19-22; 1,500 US adults; 1,309 registered voters; online) again produces a familiar response pattern. President Biden scores poorly, but still leads the tested Republicans in general election ballot tests.

Overall, the Biden job approval ratio is 41:54 percent favorable to unfavorable. Pertaining to isolated issues, the president fails to score in positive territory on any tested question.

He records a 40:51 percent positive to negative ratios on jobs and the economy; 31:58 percent on immigration; 38:49 percent for his handling of foreign policy; 41:47 percent concerning national security; 40:45 percent in relation to education; 33:52 percent on crime; 32:49 percent about criminal justice reform; and 33:59 percent regarding inflation.

Yet, turning to a straight ballot test question when individually paired with former President Trump and Gov. DeSantis, the respondents still favor Biden for re-election.

In a YouGov national survey conducted just before the one analyzed above (Aug. 17-21; 1,665 US adults; 1,115 registered voters; online) the president scores a 47-41 percent split opposite Trump and posts a 45-40 percent lead over Gov. DeSantis.

This is consistent with the aforementioned survey that finds 44 percent of those respondents saying they would vote for the Democratic candidate and 40 percent for the eventual Republican nominee. On the generic congressional vote, the results are similar with 45 percent choosing the Democratic congressional candidate while 42 percent would support the Republican.

The presidential ballot test numbers are somewhat astonishing in that just 50 percent of questioned Democrats and Independents say they want to see President Biden renominated and only 26 percent of the entire polling sample believes Biden is “fit to serve another term as president.”

Furthermore, of those who feel the president is unfit for another four year term, 34.4 percent say he is “incompetent,” 27.6 percent believe he is “too old,” and 20.7 percent label him as “corrupt.”

Yet, with these negative impressions, a strong majority of Democrats and Independents (69 percent) would vote to renominate him in the party primary, and he records an average 5.5 percentage point edge over the two leading Republican nomination candidates.

These numbers, which are consistent when perusing various polls, suggest that the Republicans must develop a more compelling message if they hope to overcome the president’s current re-election advantage. This, despite majorities from the representative samples expressing negative opinions of the current incumbent’s performance.

Debate Prep; Poll Movement

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Aug. 23, 2023

President

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Tonight: GOP Debate — The first GOP presidential forum will be held tonight in Milwaukee, and it appears the Republican National Committee’s debate requirement criteria failed to meet its principal intended goal.

The chief reasons for instituting the debate qualification menu:

  • Reaching at least one percent support in a minimum of three post-July 1st polls with 800 or more respondents
  • Having 40,000 financial donors
  • Signing a pledge to support the eventual Republican nominee …

… among other party related items, became easier to obtain than initially anticipated. The purpose of having requirements was to keep most minor candidates out, thus limiting the participants to a small number of major candidates.

At this time, it appears at least eight candidates will be on stage Wednesday night. The national leader, former President Donald Trump, is saying he won’t attend and refuses to sign the loyalty pledge that irrespectively should eliminate him. Without Trump among the participants, however, the debate will lose much of its luster, not to mention ratings for host Fox News.

The eight who apparently have earned a podium spot are:

  • Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL)
  • Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC)
  • Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND)
  • Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy
  • Former Vice President Mike Pence
  • Ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley
  • Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie
  • Ex-Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson

Businessman Perry Johnson has also reportedly eclipsed the financial requirement but failed on the polling qualification.

Meeting the financial requirement became easier when Gov. Burgum, and then several others, ran an end-run around the requirement by concocting the idea of paying for $1 contributions and receiving a $20 gift card in exchange. The move was able to qualify several candidates who initially appeared incapable of pulling together such a donor portfolio within a limited time frame.

We are now seeing definitive movement in polling responses. While Trump continues to lead in all polls by substantial margins, the last five national polls have all found Ramaswamy finishing in either third or even second place in national Republican presidential polling. Simultaneously, Gov. DeSantis has lost considerable polling support.

The Fox News Poll (Aug. 11-14; 1,002 registered US voters; live interview), Quinnipiac University’s national survey (Aug. 11-14; 1,632 self-identified US registered voters; 681 Republican and Republican leaning voters; 666 Democratic and Democratic leaning primary voters; live interview), and Insider Advantage (Aug. 19-20; 750 likely US Republican primary voters; live interview) each project Ramaswamy as placing third behind Trump (Fox, 53 percent; Q-Poll, 57 percent; Insider, 51 percent) and Gov. DeSantis (Fox, 16 percent; Q-Poll, 18 percent; Insider, 10 percent).

The RMG Research and Emerson College surveys find Ramaswamy doing even better. In RMG’s latest poll (Aug. 11-14; 1,000 US registered voters; 229 likely Republican primary voters), though with a very small national GOP sample, Ramaswamy moves into second place with 13 percent compared to Gov. DeSantis’ eight percent. Trump tops the RMG poll with a whopping 60 percent support figure.

The Emerson College Poll (Aug. 16-17; 1,000 registered US voters; multiple sampling techniques), again found the self-identified Republicans favoring Trump who posted 56 percent support in this poll, while DeSantis and Ramaswamy each post 10 percent support figures. When compared to Emerson’s June national poll, Gov. DeSantis has dropped 11 percentage points and Ramaswamy has gained eight.

The polling bump that Ramaswamy demonstrates suggest that he may leave the first debate attracting even more support since he will have a more prominent podium position and, without Trump in the mix, has the opportunity to establish himself as the most talked-about candidate in the post-debate analysis. Conversely, with his stronger recent polling performance, the pressure to become a star participant tonight is significant.

Presidential Trends

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 28, 2023

President

Are Trump and Biden locks for their respective parties?

Presidential Trends: Biden, Trump Party Nominations Look Inevitable — Heading toward August of the off-year, we are seeing clear presidential trends already developing.

President Joe Biden will be renominated. Despite Robert F. Kennedy Jr. being in the primary race and attracting some media attention, the Democratic process will almost assuredly be a non-event.

Trends are also clear for former President Donald Trump. He continues to lead in all polling and has actually gotten stronger within the party base after the series of indictments were leveled against him.

The Morning Consult data and research firm released a graph of the candidates’ progress from December of 2022 through the present. The latest result from their daily online track finds Trump now approaching 60 percent support nationally. In December, he was right at 50 support, but then generally dropped into the 40s through February but has continued to gain strength ever since.

The perennial second-place candidate, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, is now trending in the opposite direction. Beginning with 30 support national support in late December, Gov. DeSantis now finds himself languishing in the teens according to most GOP surveys.

The trajectory for most of the second-tier candidates has also been upward. Aside from Gov. DeSantis, who has fallen, and former Vice President Mike Pence and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who have remained virtually stagnant, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum have all improved their standing. Ex-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has bolted onto the scene but appears to be running to deny Trump, and while he is moving into the middle of the pack, it is difficult to see how his support grows from the Republican Party’s relatively small “Never Trump” faction.

As we know, national polls do not deliver any delegate votes to the candidates. Those, of course, are won at the state level through public voting, so it is important to follow the state data to get a true indication of the nomination contest’s ebbs and flows.

Continue reading →

Burgum Qualifies for GOP Debate; Support for Montana Senate Candidate Wans; Democratic Competition in CA-22; Returning Candidate in FL-9

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 27, 2023

President

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R)

Gov. Doug Burgum: Qualifies for GOP Debate — North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum’s campaign team announced that the candidate has qualified for the first Republican debate on Aug. 23 in Milwaukee. Gov. Burgum is showing an uptick in backing from both Iowa and New Hampshire and has attracted enough small dollar contributions and polling support to qualify for a podium on the debate stage.

Gov. Burgum is the seventh debate participant joining former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. Ex-Vice President Mike Pence remains the most well-known candidate who has not yet qualified.

Senate

Montana: Club for Growth Hedges on Support for Rosendale — The Club for Growth leadership several months ago said they would back US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) to the tune of $10 million if he decided to challenge Sen. Jon Tester (D), as he did five years ago. In the 2018 election, Rosendale, then the state auditor, lost to Sen. Tester, 50-47 percent.

Now, CfG president David McIntosh, himself a former Republican congressman, is hedging on such a support level, saying that retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy is an impressive candidate and Rep. Rosendale is needed in the House. Rosendale has long been a presumed Senate candidate but has yet to come forward and formally announce his political plans.

House

CA-22: Democratic Competition — In November, Golden State Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) defeated then-state Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D), 51.5 – 48.5 percent, in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+10. Salas, who many regard as the congressman’s most difficult opponent from the group of candidates he faced during his five victorious federal campaigns, has already announced that he is returning for a rematch. Now, however, further competition looms on the horizon. State Sen. Melissa Hurtado (D-Sanger/Bakersfield) is reportedly preparing to announce for Congress and will enter the March 5, 2024, all-party jungle primary.

While Hurtado’s Senate district covers just over 96 percent of the 22nd Congressional District, she was only re-elected in November by just a 22-vote margin from more than 138,000 ballots cast. Therefore, it appears that Salas should still be favored to advance into the general election against Rep. Valadao.

FL-9: Republican to Try Again — Former state Rep. John Quinones (R), who ran for the 9th District seat in 2012 but lost soundly (63-37 percent) to then-Rep. Alan Grayson (D), is returning to run again in 2024, this time hoping to challenge incumbent Rep. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee). The 9th District, which contains the south Orlando area, was the most over-populated of the 27 Florida congressional districts prior to reapportionment and redistricting. It has 30 percent different territory from when Quinones ran the first time.

Rep. Soto was re-elected to a fourth term in November with a 54-46 percent margin, which was much lower than expected against an opponent who spent less than $600,000. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-9 at a substantial D+16, with a partisan lean calculation from Dave’s Redistricting App of 58.8D – 39.2R.

Poll Shows Presidential Race Tightening; Ohio Senate Race Still a Toss-Up; Big Lead for Mondaire Jones; Gov. Sununu Declines to Run Again

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 21, 2023

President

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R)

New Hampshire: UNH Poll Shows GOP Race Tightening — A University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll was released during the week (July 13-17; 2,208 registered New Hampshire voters; 898 likely Republican primary voters; 743 likely Democratic primary voters; online), and it shows a tightening of the Republican presidential contest. According to this data, former President Donald Trump’s lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has dropped to 37-23 percent. The second tier has also moved up. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, ex-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley all posted between eight and five percent support.

On the Democratic side, 65 percent of President Joe Biden’s voters say they will vote for him as a write-in if he doesn’t participate in the New Hampshire primary. This would likely be enough for him to beat Robert F. Kennedy Jr, even without the president’s name on the ballot. New Hampshire is not likely to agree with the new Democratic National Committee primary schedule, so Biden may not participate.

Senate

Ohio: New Poll Continues to Show Toss-Up Race — Suffolk University, polling for USA Today (July 9-12; 500 Ohio mostly likely voters; live interview), finds Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in a dead heat match with newly announced US Senate candidate Frank LaRose (R), Ohio’s Secretary of State. According to the results, the two candidates would each attract 45 percent of the vote. If state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls) were the Republican nominee, Sen. Brown would lead 46-43 percent. Should businessman Bernie Moreno win the GOP primary, Sen. Brown’s margin against him in a general election pairing would be 48-41 percent.

The poll tested the Republican primary, but the sample cell is too low (190) to make a definitive judgment. The basic results give LaRose just a 19-14-9 percent edge over Sen. Dolan and Moreno, respectively. A majority of 56 percent, however, said they were undecided. Ohio will be one of the top Senate races in the 2024 general election.

House

NY-17: Ex-Rep Opens with Big Dem Primary Lead — Former US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D), in a comeback attempt in his former Rockland/Westchester County district after losing re-election last year in New York City, released a survey of Democratic voters. The results of the Public Policy Polling study (July 14-15; 570 likely NY-17 Democratic primary voters) gives Jones a strong 43-8 percent ballot test advantage over local school board member Liz Gereghty, who is also the sister of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D). The Democratic primary winner will face freshman Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) in what promises to be a tight general election.

Governor

New Hampshire: Gov. Sununu Won’t Run Again — As expected, four-term Granite State Gov. Chris Sununu (R) announced Wednesday that he will retire when his term ends at the end of next year. Gov. Sununu is only the second chief executive in state history to serve four two-year terms. The other was Democratic Gov. John Lynch, who was in office from 2005 to the beginning of 2013.

Gov. Sununu was first elected in a close 2016 election, but then recorded three successive victories with substantial margins. He briefly considered entering the 2024 presidential campaign before deciding against launching a national effort.

Immediately, former state Senate President Chuck Morse (R), who actually served two days as governor when then-Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) resigned early to be sworn into the Senate, confirmed that he will run. Morse last ran for the Senate in 2022 but suffered a one-point loss in the Republican primary. Ex-US Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) is also a potential gubernatorial candidate. Previously announced Democratic gubernatorial candidates are Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington. Expect this open governor’s race to yield a hard fought toss-up campaign.

Projected GOP Presidential Debate Qualifiers; New Senate Candidate in Ohio; Q2 Senate Financials Reported; A Strong CA-9 Candidate Emerges; Indiana Open Gov. Race News

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 19, 2023

President

Debate: Projected Qualifiers — USA Today is projecting that six GOP presidential contenders will qualify for the Aug. 23 debate to be aired on FOX News, while another half-dozen may miss the cut. The candidates meeting the polling and donor requirements are, as expected, former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. The others are ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, Sen. Tim Scott, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

Those on the cusp of failing to meet the participation requirements are former Vice President Mike Pence, ex-Congressman Will Hurd, Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), ex-Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, and commentator Larry Elder.

Senate

Ohio: Sec of State Announces for Senate — As has been long expected, a third major Republican has joined the US Senate primary hoping to advance into the general election to oppose incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). Frank LaRose was first elected as Ohio’s Secretary of State in 2018 after serving two terms in the Ohio state Senate from the Akron area. He averaged 55 percent of the vote in his two victorious statewide campaigns.

LaRose is the only one of the three GOP candidates – the others being state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls) and businessman Bernie Moreno – who has won a statewide race. Sen. Dolan ran for the US Senate in 2022 but lost the Republican primary. Moreno was also in that Senate race but withdrew before voting began seeing no reasonable victory path.

While LaRose is the only statewide official in the race, he begins well behind in the money race. Sen. Dolan has already invested $4 million into his campaign. Moreno reports raising $2.26 million in the 2nd Quarter.

The general election will be difficult since Sen. Brown is a three-term incumbent. The state, however, is significantly more Republican than when the senator last ran in 2018. The ’24 contest is becoming a must-win for the GOP if the party is to capture the Senate majority in the coming election.

Senate Finance: Q2 Dollar Numbers Reported — The 2nd Quarter fundraising numbers have been released, and the 58 reporting Senate candidates in the 34 races attracted a cumulative $91.7 million and have more than $228 million in their campaign accounts. This does not count any money that Super PACs have raised or plan to spend to affect the outcome of the 2024 US Senate electoral contests.

Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) was technically first in funds raised with $8.63 million, but $2.5 million of that total was transferred from his House committee. Rep. Allred’s potential general election opponent, Sen. Ted Cruz (R), ranked sixth overall but first among Republicans. He attracted $3.35 million in financial support.

California Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) was the net Q2 fundraising leader, bringing in $8.17 million without any transfers from his House account. He also led the all-important cash-on-hand category with a whopping $29.8 million ready to spend on his Senate campaign. The total amounts raised during this early campaign phase suggest that we can expect another hotly contested campaign season next year.

House

CA-9: Republicans Gain Strong Candidate — Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln, a Republican elected in a heavily Democratic city, is reportedly preparing an announcement for Thursday indicating he will forego running for a second term in his present position in order to challenge Rep. Josh Harder (D-Turlock) for the US House seat. Rep. Harder was severely redistricted in the 2021 redraw, but still managed to record a 55-45 percent victory over San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti (R). The congressman had a huge 6:1 advantage in resources, which became a key factor in his re-election victory.

The CA-9 district could be one to watch nationally. Republicans must defeat several sitting Democratic incumbents if they are to hold their small House majority and this northern California seat, that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+8, could be on the cusp of becoming a top-tier conversion target.

Governor

Indiana: Newcomer May Enter Open Gov Race — Indiana Secretary of Commerce Brad Chambers (R) announced he will be resigning his position and it is anticipated that he will quickly declare his gubernatorial candidacy.

Though starting well behind the open race’s two front runners for the Republican nomination and the general election, US Sen. Mike Braun and Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, Chambers, who has the financial ability to self-fund his campaign, may soon become the fourth credible candidate in the field. Venture capitalist Eric Doden also has the ability to attract enough resources to propel his candidacy. Incumbent Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Sen. Braun is foregoing a second term in the Senate to enter the gubernatorial campaign.

Scott Tops Haley in South Carolina;
A GOP Battle in Florida; Steny Hoyer Challenged; LDP Endorses Wilson

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 28, 2023

President

(R-SC)

South Carolina: Sen. Scott Again Tops Ex-Gov. Haley — The American Greatness political organization, loosely affiliated with former President Donald Trump, conducted a survey of the critically important South Carolina Republican primary (National Research, Inc.; June 19-21; 500 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters) and again finds Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), who the recent NBC national poll now detects moving into third place on the Republican primary ballot test, topping former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

Former President Donald Trump maintains a substantial lead with 41 percent support. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is second with 18 percent. Sen. Scott and ex-Gov. Haley follow with 10 and eight percent, respectively, before their home state electorate. No one else even reaches the four percent benchmark. The South Carolina Republican primary is scheduled for Feb. 24, the fourth state to vote on the GOP calendar.

House

FL-16: Rep. Buchanan to Face DeSantis Appointee — Private school superintendent Eddie Speir (R), who Gov. DeSantis appointed to a board that oversees New College, a public liberal arts college in Sarasota, Florida, announced that he will challenge veteran Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota) in next year’s GOP primary. After Rep. Buchanan lost his bid to become House Ways & Means Committee chairman, there were rumors floating that he would resign his seat. Therefore, Buchanan remains a retirement prospect. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-16 as R+13, while Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 55.2R – 42.7D partisan lean.

MD-5: Democratic Challenger for Rep. Hoyer — On the heels of former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville) hinting he will seek re-election to a 23rd term in 2024, a credible Democratic primary challenger appears on the scene. Prince Georges County Environmental Director Andrea Crooms announced her candidacy Monday, becoming the candidate with the most potential of attracting support. It is highly doubtful, however, that she can unseat Hoyer, who has represented the southern Maryland region since winning a special congressional election in 1981.

It is clear the Democratic primary will be the significant election. With a FiveThirtyEight data organization score of D+28, and a Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation of 60.9D – 36.4R, the GOP has little chance of making a serious run here in the general election.

Governor

Louisiana: Democratic Party Officially Endorses — With the open Bayou State governor’s race beginning to attract attention, the Louisiana Democratic Party has already gone on record with endorsement support for the leading party contender long before candidate filing closes on Aug. 10, 2023. The LDP now officially endorses former Secretary of Transportation Shawn Wilson, joining outgoing Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) who also publicly supports Wilson as his successor. Gov. Edwards is ineligible to seek a third term under Louisiana election law.

The Louisiana system features an all-party jungle primary on Oct. 14 of this year. If no candidate receives majority support, a runoff between the top two finishers will be held on Nov. 18. The leading Republicans are attorney general and former Congressman Jeff Landry and state Treasurer John Schroder. With eight candidates already actively running, the chances of moving to a runoff are extremely high.

Miami Mayor Files Presidential Committee; Presidential Candidate Favorable vs. Unfavorable Ratings;
A 4th Dem Enters California Race; Montana Gov’s Primary Challenge

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 16, 2023

President

Miami Mayor Francis Suarez (R)

Francis Suarez: Miami Mayor Files Presidential Committee — As has been expected for some time, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez filed a presidential committee mid week with the Federal Election Commission and becomes now the tenth Republican candidate. Obviously a long shot who may be positioning himself as a potential vice presidential pick, Mayor Suarez would be attractive to Republicans as a candidate with potential national appeal to the Hispanic community.

YouGov Economist Poll: Mixed Results — The YouGov international online polling firm again conducted one of their extensive periodic surveys for The Economist publication (June 10-13; 1,500 US adults; online), and though a majority of respondents firmly believe former President Donald Trump should have been indicted over the classified documents issue, he would surprisingly still lead President Joe Biden by a percentage point in the national popular vote.

The respondents largely sour over the group of 11 tested potential presidential candidates, however. Only Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (49:30 percent favorable to unfavorable), Sen. Tim Scott (33:25 percent), and Vivek Ramaswamy (26:19 percent) found themselves with positive ratings.

Former Governor Chris Christie had the highest negative rating at 27:51 percent favorable to unfavorable. Ex-Vice President Mike Pence (36:53 percent), Sen. Joe Manchin (26:37 percent), ex-President Trump (43:53 percent), President Biden (45:52 percent), Marianne Williamson (19:24 percent), Gov. Ron DeSantis (41:46 percent), and former Ambassador Nikki Haley (33:34 percent) all followed in the upside-down category.

House

CA-45: Rep. Steel Draws Fourth Dem Challenger — Attorney Jimmy Pham became the fourth Democratic candidate to enter the 2024 congressional race hoping to challenge two-term Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+5.

In addition to Pham, Garden Grove City Councilwoman Kim Nguyen, and attorneys Cheyenne Hunt and Aditya Pai are announced candidates. Community College Trustee Jay Chen, who held Rep. Steel to a 52-48 percent victory in 2022, is a potential re-match contender but has yet to make his 2024 political plans known.

Expect this to be a top Democratic target race. The 45th is one of four California Democratic seats that a Republican represents.

Governor

Montana: Gov. Gianforte to Face Primary Challenge — Without articulating a particular criticism against Gov. Greg Gianforte (R), state Rep. Tanner Smith (R-Lakeside) has announced that he will launch a Republican gubernatorial primary challenge.

Gov. Gianforte, whose job approval ratings are high, does not appear to be vulnerable to any Republican primary challenger. At this point, he would also be rated as a prohibitive favorite to win a second full term in the 2024 general election. The Montana primary is scheduled for June 4, 2024.

Scott Announces Presidential Run; DeSantis, Burgum Set to Announce; Michigan Senate Race

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 22, 2023

President

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (R)

Sen. Tim Scott: Formally Announces — As predicted last week, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott on Saturday declared his presidential candidacy. At this point, former President Donald Trump, former UN Ambassador and ex-South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, retired Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and now Sen. Scott are the officially announced Republican candidates.

As we have previously said, the higher the number of second-tier candidates in the Republican presidential race, the stronger former President Trump will become. Typically, a crowded field favors the contender who has the strongest political base. In this case, such candidate is clearly Donald Trump.

Gov. Ron DeSantis: Set to Announce — Reports nationally and coming from Florida suggest that Gov. Ron DeSantis will formally announce his presidential campaign this week. His chief objective will be to make the race a two-way contest between he and former President Donald Trump. Another big test will be to exceed expectations in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire, places that require the personal touch and strong ground operations. It is unclear just how strong the DeSantis campaign will be in the organization aspect of the campaign, but the governor’s campaign could be short lived if he fails to perform well in the early states.

Gov. Doug Burgum: To Declare Next Week — In what will be a long-shot presidential candidacy, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum is also reportedly going to announce his first national campaign this week. While he won’t likely be a factor in the national scope of the campaign, he could do better than expected in Iowa, still the first state on the Republican calendar.

Historically, the Iowa voter has preferred Midwestern candidates. With Gov. Burgum coming from the business community and managing an agricultural state, such a combination could give him a basis to attract a reasonable number of votes. His bump, should it occur, won’t likely last long, but the Iowa Caucuses are a place where the seeds could be sown for Gov. Burgum to become a surprise candidate.

Senate

Michigan: State School Board President Files Senate Committee — As has been expected for some time, Michigan Board of Education President Pamela Pugh (D) filed a US Senate committee late last week with the Federal Election Commission. Potentially, we could see three African-American candidates in the open Senate Democratic primary. Pugh would join deputy director of the state Department of Transportation and ex-state Rep. Leslie Love, who has filed an exploratory committee, and potentially actor Hill Harper.

If all three eventually enter the race, the beneficiary would be US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing), who is viewed as the early favorite to win the seat. If the state’s substantial black vote is split three ways, it is probable that Rep. Slotkin’s hand would be strengthened even further. It remains to be seen exactly who will formally enter the open race. Incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is not seeking a fourth term.