Aug. 4, 2015 — Just after the first two 2016 presidential debates, the media coverage will undoubtedly center on the candidates and the plethora of public polls that will test public response. But, there is another important process facet that won’t receive any attention: the voting schedule and delegate allocation.
As the campaign now begins to unfold in earnest, it is clear that the Democratic nomination is headed Hillary Clinton’s way. Though she has serious flaws as a national candidate, her weaknesses are not a particular factor before her own party’s electorate.
National polls consistently show her barely ahead of several Republican candidates, and having major problems convincing the general electorate of her honesty, trustworthiness, and whether she cares about the average voter. Yet, these negatives do not appear to be dissuading the Democratic primary voters.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney appears poised to win a convincing victory tonight in the Florida Republican presidential primary and, barring future delegate certification challenges before the Republican National Convention, will claim all 50 delegates being apportioned in the state in winner-take-all fashion.
Eight different polls, all conducted during a period beginning Jan. 27 or later, give Mr. Romney leads of between 5 and 25 percentage points, and in all but two of those polls he wins by double digits. Each poll has former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in second place and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum either in third or tied for third with Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX-14).
But it is how Santorum performs that may be the most interesting part of tonight’s result. Since the polls all show him posting between 9 and 12 points, a stronger performance will reveal further conservative dissatisfaction with Romney. Further right-of-center voters fleeing Gingrich – as his roller coaster campaign now begins to slide downward again – and heading toward Santorum looks to be a very real possibility. Should this occur, the Pennsylvanian, who spent little money in Florida, would head to Nevada with some new wind at his back, particularly if Romney again wins with only a plurality of support.
Such a finish would again lend credence to the theory that a uniting of conservatives behind one candidate could still see that candidate overtake Romney. Failure for that scenario to take place likely nominates Romney at least by the time most primaries and caucuses conclude at the end of April, if not sooner.
The special election in Oregon’s 1st District primary – scheduled for Nov. 8 – now has two distinct leaders according to the latest public poll. Survey USA (Oct. 17-20; 522 likely OR-1 Democratic primary voters; 403 likely OR-1 GOP primary voters) gives state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici a huge lead in the Democratic Party contest, while GOP 2010 nominee Rob Cornilles enjoys an even bigger edge for the Republicans.
According to the S-USA data, Bonamici has a 52-14-9 percent lead over Oregon Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian and state Rep. Brad Witt. Cornilles has a huge advantage over marketing executive Lisa Michaels and radio talk show host Jim Greenfield on the Republican side. The numbers in the latter contest are 66-7-4 percent. The winners of the two primaries will meet in a Jan. 31 special general election. The eventual winner, likely the Democratic nominee, will replace resigned Rep. David Wu (D), and will then stand for a full term in the regular election cycle.