Tag Archives: Gov. Jeff Landry

Trump, Biden Win in New Hampshire; Blood Challenges Flood in NE-1; North Dakota Candidates Line Up for Governor’s Race; Louisiana Redistricting Map Signed Into Law

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Jan. 24, 2024

President

New Hampshire: Trump, Biden Win — Former President Donald Trump successfully won the New Hampshire Republican primary last night and did so by about 12 percentage points, but his performance is apparently not enough to convince former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley to leave the race.

In her concession speech, Haley pledged to continue moving forward and several times referenced going to her home state of South Carolina as a place that could reverse the political tide. Polling, however, suggests that she is not as strong there as she was in New Hampshire.

For the Democrats, President Joe Biden, despite not being on the primary ballot, won the primary with write-in ballots that tallied just over 67 percent of the vote. US Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN), who said he had no fundamental disagreement with the president over issues but believes Democrats should have a choice particularly with an 81-year old in office, secured just over 20 percent of the vote. Author Marianne Williamson attracted the remaining votes, just under 4 percent.

The New Hampshire primary yielded a record Republican turnout. The final participation count could reach 320,000. The previous record of 284,120 was set in 2016. The final Democratic turnout number will only be in the 100,000 range.

House

NE-1: Gov. Nominee to Challenge Rep. Flood — State Sen. Carol Blood (D-Bellevue), who was the 2022 Democratic gubernatorial nominee and lost to now-Gov. Jim Pillen (R), 59-36 percent, announced that she will now challenge Rep. Mike Flood (R-Norfolk) in the state’s 1st District that surrounds the Omaha metropolitan area on three sides. Flood was elected in a 2022 special election after Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R) resigned. He won a full term in November with 58 percent of the vote. Blood’s candidacy gives the Democrats a credible challenger in what is considered a safe Republican seat.

Rep. Flood will be favored for re-election. The 1st District carries an R+17 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a partisan lean of 56.7R – 40.4D. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks NE-1 as the 72nd most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

Governor

North Dakota: One In, One Out — After Gov. Doug Burgum (R) on Monday announced that he will not seek a third term, other North Dakota politicos began to make public their own political plans. At-Large US Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-Bismarck) quickly declared that he will run for governor. Armstrong leaving the House means that 46 seats will be open for the next election.

Conversely, Attorney General Drew Wrigley (R), also viewed as one of the top potential contenders to succeed Gov. Burgum, announced that he will not run for governor, instead opting to seek re-election to his current position. Former state senator and ex-congressional candidate Tom Campbell (R) will also run for governor.

The Republican statewide nominating convention is scheduled for April 6. The ND primary is set for June 11.

States

Louisiana: Redistricting Map Signed Into Law — Meeting the court-ordered requirement to draw a new majority minority seat in Louisiana, Gov. Jeff Landry (R) yesterday signed into law the legislature’s map. The new lines will cost the Republicans one seat, as an African American Democrat will be heavily favored to win a newly drawn 6th District that stretches from Baton Rouge all the way to Shreveport, cutting through the middle of House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-Benton) 4th CD.

Current 6th District Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge) says he will run for the House, which likely means challenging Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) in the state’s newly drawn, and safely Republican, 5th CD. Rep. Graves also says he is considering filing a lawsuit against the new map.

DeSantis Suspends Campaign; Louisiana Map Passes Legislature, State Changes Primary System;
NY-3 Poll Shows Tightening Race;

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 22, 2024

President

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Ron DeSantis: Suspends Campaign: Two days before Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, once thought to be former President Donald Trump’s principal Republican challenger, announced that he is suspending his national campaign and endorsed the former president.

While DeSantis suspended his campaign, he didn’t soften his attacks on both President Joe Biden and fellow GOP challenger Nikki Haley. “I look forward to working together with him [Trump] to beat Joe Biden, who is the worst and most corrupt president in the history of our country,” DeSantis said.

Referring to Haley, Gov. DeSantis was quoted as saying, “I signed a pledge to support the nominee, and I will honor that pledge. He [Mr. Trump] has my endorsement because we can’t go back to the old Republican guard of yesteryear, a repackaged form of warmed over corporatism that Nikki Haley represents.”

The GOP presidential fight now winnows to two major contenders, former President Trump, and ex-UN Ambassador Haley. Tomorrow’s New Hampshire primary may be close; Trump, however, will easily win in Nevada on Feb. 6, after which the campaign heads to Haley’s home state of South Carolina on Feb. 24 where polling finds Trump holding a 2:1 lead. If such margin holds, the Republican nomination will effectively be clinched before Super Tuesday on March 5.

House

Louisiana: Congressional Map Passes Legislature — The Louisiana state legislature agreed upon legislation to create a new congressional map as part of their special session to satisfy a court order. The bill now goes to Gov. Jeff Landry (R) for his signature. The agreed upon plan creates a new 6th District anchored in Baton Rouge, which then stretches through Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-Benton), virtually cutting it in half, to reach Shreveport. This satisfies the court order to create a second majority minority seat in the state (54 percent black). According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, President Biden would have carried the new 6th by a 59-39 percent majority.

The big loser on this map is five-term Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge). He is now paired with Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) in a new 5th District seat that stretches along the Mississippi border on the south and east and going all the way to the Arkansas border on the north. The new 5th contains at least two-thirds of Rep. Letlow’s current constituency.

The partisan division will now award another seat to the Democrats, making the future Louisiana delegation 5R-2D. Under the plan, Speaker Johnson, Majority Leader Steve Scalise, and Reps. Troy Carter (D-New Orleans), and Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette) all get safe seats from a partisan perspective.

NY-3: New Poll Shows Tight Special Election Race — A newly released Emerson College survey (Jan. 13-15; 975 registered NY-3 voters; 819 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees a close special election race developing between former US Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) and Nassau County Legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip (R). The ballot test shows a 45-43 percent split in favor of Suozzi.

The best news for the former Democratic congressman is that the most likely voters within the sample break for him on a 51-37 percent split. While the majority white vote (58 percent of the district population) favors Pilip 49-40 percent, the largest minority group, Asians (24 percent of the district population), overwhelmingly favor Suozzi (60-25 percent). Hispanics (13 percent of the population) are moving toward Pilip in a 44-33 percent clip.

Possibly the most troubling news for Suozzi are President Biden’s and Gov. Kathy Hochul’s (D) poor job approval ratings. Only one-third of voters, 33 percent, approve of President Biden’s performance in office (59 percent disapprove). Gov. Hochul’s numbers are even worse. Her approval index is 25:66 percent favorable to unfavorable. The special election is scheduled for Feb. 13.

States

Louisiana: Changing to Party Primary System — As part of the special Louisiana state legislative session, the House and Senate are sending a bill to Gov. Jeff Landry (R), one that he initiated, to change Louisiana’s primary voting system from a top-two jungle system to a partisan primary. The changes would take effect for the 2026 election and would institute a modified system where registered members of the political party must vote in their own primary while non-affiliated voters would have their choice of where to cast their ballot.

The change would mean, as in most other states, that only the political party nominees and qualified Independents would advance to the general election. The legislation would affect all federal races along with the state Supreme Court, the state school board, and the Public Service Commission. All other offices would continue with the current system of sending the top two finishers regardless of political party affiliation to the general election.

Sheehy Leads Rosendale in Montana GOP Primary Poll; Another Florida Dem Senate Candidate Announces; Louisiana, NJ, Texas House News

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 16, 2023

Senate

Montana: Sheehy Leads Rosendale in GOP Primary Poll — A new Fabrizio Lee statewide Montana survey (Oct. 23-25; 600 likely Montana Republican primary voters; live interview & text) finds that US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive), despite holding Sen. Jon Tester (D) to a 50-47 percent victory margin in 2018, is no lock to win the 2024 Senate Republican nomination.

According to the Fabrizio Lee data, aerospace company CEO and retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, the Republican leadership’s choice, is already topping Rosendale among Republican primary voters. The full ballot test, which also includes GOP candidates Brad Johnson and Jeremy Mygland, projects Sheehy to be holding a 38-35-6-1 percent edge over Rosendale, Johnson and Mygland, respectively. In a head-to-head hypothetical pairing, Sheehy holds a 44-41 percent margin over Rep. Rosendale.

Sheehy, who announced his Senate candidacy in late June (see campaign announcement video at top), has been working the state and is on the air with an early television buy. Rep. Rosendale three weeks ago said he will decide whether to run for the Senate when Montana’s candidate filing deadline closes on March 11.

Florida: Second Major Dem Announces — Former health care company executive Stanley Campbell, who has the ability to at least partially fund his statewide campaign, has formally announced that he will enter the Florida US Senate Democratic primary. Campbell will face former US Rep. Debbie Mucarsel Powell in the Aug. 20 primary election. Nine other Democrats have also declared their candidacies, but it appears that Campbell and Mucarsel Powell are the two most credible contenders. The winner will then face Sunshine State Sen. Rick Scott (R) in what will be an uphill battle for the Democrats.

House

Louisiana: Court Assigns Redistricting Deadline — The three-judge federal Louisiana panel that affirmed the current Bayou State congressional map as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, has given the legislature until Jan. 15 to produce a map that creates a second African American-influenced district. The deadline is actually much shorter unless current Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) calls the legislature back into session. If he does not, incoming Gov. Jeff Landry (R) will have to act immediately since he will not be sworn into office until Jan. 8. Before winning his election outright in October, governor-elect Landry was Louisiana’s attorney general and previously a US congressman. He served only one term in the House when his seat was collapsed because Louisiana lost a seat in the 2010 national reapportionment.

NJ-8: Rep. Menendez Dem Primary Challenger Gains Strength — Freshman Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City) appears headed for a legitimate primary challenge battle. Menendez is the only member of the New Jersey delegation who has stood up for embattled Sen. Bob Menendez, who is the congressman’s father.

Immediately upon the Menendez indictment being announced in late September, Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bholla declared his congressional candidacy in the Democratic primary to oppose the younger Menendez. The latest information proves Bholla is a serious candidate. The New Jersey Globe newspaper reports that the mayor has already raised over $500,000 for his campaign. Therefore, this June 4 primary has legitimate upset potential.

TX-4: Rep. Fallon Changes Mind About Retirement — Earlier this week, Texas Rep. Pat Fallon (R-Frisco) declared that he would not seek re-election to the US House and instead filed papers to run for the state Senate seat that he vacated to run for Congress. Just a couple days later, however, he announced a change of heart and announced that he will run for re-election to the House after all. Rep. Fallon will have little trouble winning a third term despite his equivocation about what office to seek. Therefore, take TX-4 off the open-seat list.