Tag Archives: Gov. Chris Sununu

Christie Gains Support; Indiana’s Holcomb Will Not Make Senate Bid; House Roundup: California, MD, Utah

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 19, 2023

President

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R)

National Research Poll: Christie Shows — A new National Research poll conducted for the American Greatness Super PAC (June 12-14; 500 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters) finds former President Donald Trump gaining strength in the Granite State, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis drops down several points from the group’s last survey. In a surprise, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie bolts into a third place tie with Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) at seven percent apiece.

A point the pollsters made revolves around New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu deciding not to run for president. At least in this first poll taken after his announcement, the results did not help Gov. DeSantis as expected. Instead, the pollsters indicated the Sununu support appeared to gravitate to either Sen. Scott or ex-Gov. Christie.

Senate

Indiana: Gov. Holcomb Won’t Run — Term-limited Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) announced that he will not enter the US Senate race or run for any other office in 2024. The governor taking a pass on the Senate race means US Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) now becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the May 7, 2024, Republican primary. He will be viewed as a lock to win the general election as the Democrats have yet to produce a competitive candidate. Incumbent Sen. Mike Braun (R) is not seeking re-election in order to run for governor.

House

CA-31: Former Dem Mayor Files Against Rep. Napolitano — Community College Trustee and former Monrovia Mayor Mary Ann Lutz (D) filed candidacy documents with the Federal Election Commission for her southern California congressional district. If she formally files, the race could lead to a Democrat vs. Democrat general election under California’s all-party jungle primary system.

It is also possible that Lutz is creating a placeholder committee in case 86-year-old incumbent Rep. Grace Napolitano (D-Norwalk) decides to retire.

MD-6: Lieutenant Governor Won’t Run — Maryland Lt. Gov. Aruna Miller (D) announced late last week that she will not enter the open 6th Congressional District race. Miller ran for the seat in 2018 when it was last open, finishing second in the Democratic primary to eventual winner David Trone. With Trone now running for the Senate, the politically competitive 6th District is now open again.

At this point five Democrats and three Republicans have announced their candidacies. On the Democratic side, two state Delegates are in the race, Lesley Lopez (D-Montgomery Village) and Joe Vogel (D-Montgomery County). Two-time GOP nominee Neil Parrott has not yet entered the race. Defeated GOP gubernatorial nominee Dan Cox also claims to be considering the congressional contest but has yet to make a final decision.

UT-2: Special Election Candidate Filing Closes — Gov. Spencer Cox (R) set the special primary election to replace resigning US Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington) for Sept. 5 and the special general on Nov. 21. The candidate filing period has now closed. A total of 13 Republicans, three Democrats, and six minor party or Independent candidates have filed.

For the Republicans — who will be favored to hold the seat — former state House Speaker Greg Hughes, ex-state Rep. and US Senate candidate Becky Edwards, and former Republican National Committeeman Bruce Hough are official candidates, and at this point comprise the first tier. For the Democrats, the leading contender is state Sen. Kathleen Riebe (D-Cottonwood Heights).

The political parties will now call a special district convention. The delegates will nominate one candidate to advance into the special primary by majority vote. Others can still qualify for the primary through the petition signature process.

Pence to Announce Presidential Campaign Today; Sununu Stays Out of Presidential Race; Manchin Running on No Labels Unlikely; Arizona Sen. Kelly Endorses Teran

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 7, 2023

President

Former Vice President Mike Pence (R)

Mike Pence: Files Presidential Campaign Committee — Mike Pence (R), former vice president, Indiana governor, and US congressman, filed his long-awaited presidential campaign committee Monday with the Federal Election Commission and officially announced his campaign today, in Iowa, on his 64th birthday. Though it is difficult to see a path to victory for him with former President Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis dominating most of the early action, Pence will likely be part of the debates and has performed very well on stage when previously tested.

Also expected to announce their own campaigns for the Republican presidential nomination this week are former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.

Gov. Chris Sununu: Won’t Run for President — New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R), saying he understands that a crowded Republican presidential field will renominate former President Donald Trump with 35 percent of the vote, announced Monday in an op-ed column that he will not enter the GOP presidential nomination contest.

Sununu said he believes he can best influence the Republican presidential campaign from the outside in his current position as governor of one of the key early primary states. He made it clear his mission is to deny former President Trump renomination and called on other candidates with no clear path to the nomination to also leave the race.

The governor did not indicate whether he would consider a third-party run for president, or if he will seek a fifth term as governor next year.

No Labels Party: Sen. Joe Manchin Again Sending Signals — In an interview with Shannon Bream on Fox News Sunday, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) was once again sending signals that he might be open to a third-party run for president on the No Labels Party ticket. Such an option probably isn’t viable, however.

During the interview, Sen. Manchin said, “If Plan A shows that we’re going to the far reaches of both sides, the far left and the far right, and the people don’t want to go to the far left and the far right, they want to be governed from the middle.” He further stated in response to Bream asking if he would run as a third-party candidate, that he is “not ruling anything in, not ruling anything out.”

Regardless of what Sen. Manchin may want to do, it is unlikely he will become the No Labels Party presidential nominee. The NLP won’t meet until April 14-15 to choose a candidate, and candidate filing in West Virginia ends in late January. Therefore, Sen. Manchin will need to make a decision about his future prior to New Labels choosing any potential presidential candidate.

House

AZ-3: Sen. Kelly Chooses Candidate — Over the weekend Sen. Mark Kelly (D) indicated that his preferred candidate to replace Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix), who is running against Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I), is former state Senate Minority Leader and ex-Arizona Democratic Party chair Raquel Teran. Four other Democrats are in the race, including Phoenix City Councilwoman Laura Pastor, daughter of former US Rep. Ed Pastor (D), but his relationship with Teran while she guided the Arizona party during his 2022 run for Senate makes her his candidate of choice.

The Phoenix anchored 3rd District is heavily Democratic with a D+44 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization. Therefore, Rep. Gallego’s successor will be decided in the Aug. 6, 2024, Democratic primary, thus making Sen. Kelly’s endorsement valuable.

More Republicans to Enter Presidential Race; Dodgers Great Garvey Considers Running for Senate; A Democratic House Challenger Switches Up; New Hampshire Gov Candidate Announces

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 5, 2023

President

June 7: Two Announcements — It appears three more Republicans will soon enter the presidential contest, two on the same day. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will announce his 2024 presidential campaign tomorrow, Tuesday, June 6, at a town hall in Manchester, New Hampshire. Former Vice President Mike Pence and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum are reportedly preparing announcements for this Wednesday, June 7, which would expand the official field to nine candidates with others, such as New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu looming as potential candidates.

Senate

Steve Garvey, former LA Dodgers great

California: Baseball Great May Enter Senate Race — Retired Los Angeles Dodger and San Diego Padre Steve Garvey (R) is considering entering the open US Senate race according to a story in the Los Angeles Times. Though Garvey has been retired as a player for 36 years after playing from 1969-1987, he still serves as an expert commentator in Major League Baseball, and his name remains well known in California’s two largest metro areas, Los Angeles and San Diego. For Republicans to have any chance in such a large state, they must begin with a candidate who is already well known.

While any Republican has little chance of winning a California general election, placing first in a crowded all-party jungle primary could be another story. With at least three strong Democrats in the open primary race, Reps. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), Katie Porter (D-Irvine), and Adam Schiff (R-Burbank), a unified minority Republican party coalescing behind a candidate like Steve Garvey would give the retired baseball player a strong chance of placing first in the jungle primary and securing a slot in the general election. This would mean that two of the three prominent House members would be eliminated in the March 5 primary election. This is a developing story.

House

CA-45; 47: One Challenger Switches Races — California Board of Equalization member Mike Schaefer (D), an announced congressional candidate for the 45th District seat that Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) holds, has decided to end his campaign and re-establish it in neighboring District 47, which will be an open seat.

The Democratic side in the Steel district is packed. Garden Grove City Councilwoman Kim Nguyen, and attorneys Cheyenne Hunt, Aditya Pat, and Jimmy Phan are all announced and active candidates. The 47th District, which Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) is vacating to run for Senate, finds state Sen. David Min (D-Irvine), television writer Lori Kirkland Baker, and several minor candidates running.

With Sen. Min’s recent conviction for drunk driving, and ex-Rep. Harley Rouda (D) having to withdraw for health reasons, Schaefer perceives an opening. The eventual November Democratic finalist will likely oppose Republican former state assemblyman and 2022 congressional finalist Scott Baugh. The California all-party jungle primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Governor

New Hampshire: New Democrat Comes Forward for Gov Race ‘24 — New Hampshire Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (D) declared late last week that she will enter the 2024 governor’s race. The Executive Council, unique to New Hampshire, is a five-member elected board that provides a check on the governor’s power. Previously, Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D) announced that she will not seek re-election to her current position and instead filed a gubernatorial exploratory committee.

Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is not expected to seek a fifth two-year term, instead likely moving forward with a presidential bid. Therefore, an open governor’s race would be highly competitive in New Hampshire, which still qualifies as a swing state where either party can sweep a statewide ticket.

Several Republicans have been discussed as gubernatorial possibilities in the event that Sununu does not run. The most prominent in terms of saying he would enter an open race is former State Senate President Chuck Morse, who lost the 2022 US Senate primary by one percentage point.

Sununu Gaining Ground in NH; Becker Passes in Nevada; A Utah Mayor to Challenge Romney; Poll Shows tight North Carolina Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 25, 2023

President

Gov. Chris Sununu (R)

New Hampshire: Movement for Sununu — The National Research, Inc. polling firm, surveying for the American Greatness organization, tested the New Hampshire Republican electorate and found Gov. Chris Sununu (R), who will likely soon enter the presidential contest, gaining ground. He will obviously need to score well before his home electorate if he is to become a viable national contender.

According to the NR data (May 15-17; 500 likely New Hampshire Republican presidential primary voters), former President Donald Trump continues to lead the group of candidates with 39 percent support. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is second with 18%, with Gov. Sununu now close behind at 17 percent. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy surprisingly rose to the top of the second tier with six percent. No other candidate or potential contender even broke the three percent threshold.

Senate

Nevada: Another Takes Pass — April Becker, the Republican congressional nominee who held Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) to a 52-48 percent re-election victory last November and was reported to be considering entering the 2024 US Senate race, has made a decision about her political future. Instead of running for the Senate next year, she will launch a campaign for the Clark County Commission. At this point, it appears that disabled American veteran Sam Brown could become the leading GOP Senate candidate.

Utah: Local GOP Mayor to Challenge Sen. Romney — Riverton Mayor Trent Skaggs (R) announced through a video presentation that he will challenge Sen. Mitt Romney in the impending GOP primary. It is likely that Skaggs will qualify through the convention process, while Sen. Romney will be forced into the signature petition qualification route. Earlier, state House Speaker Brad Wilson had filed a US Senate exploratory committee. Former US representative and Fox News contributor Jason Chaffetz is also said to be weighing his potential opportunities in a race against Sen. Romney.

In any event, having to fight a primary opponent is a likelihood for the incumbent Sen. Romney.

Governor

Kentucky: Poll Shows Tight Race — Just after last week’s Kentucky Republican primary nominated Attorney General Daniel Cameron to challenge Gov. Andy Beshear (D), the co/efficient GOP polling firm, for the Cameron campaign, went into the field. The survey (May 18-19; 987 likely 2023 Kentucky general election voters) sees Gov. Beshear holding only a two-point, 45-43 percent, edge over AG Cameron.

The closeness of this ballot test result is surprising considering Gov. Beshear’s job approval rating index is very favorable. Expect this race to be in competitive mode all the way through the November election.

NH Gov. Sununu Edges Closer to Presidential Candidacy; New Dem Emerges in MD Senate Race; Possible Challenger to Tenn. Sen. Blackburn; Radzius is In & Out in NY-3

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 23, 2023

President

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R)

Gov. Chris Sununu: Moving Toward Running — New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu said at the end of last week that he will make a formal announcement about his potential presidential candidacy by the end of this month. Reading the political tea leaves suggests that he will enter the race but will forego a fifth run for governor later in the cycle presuming he fails to win the Republican presidential nomination. The Granite State has no term limits in place for the office of governor; also, governors serve two-year terms, not four as in most states.

Polls suggest that he will be a factor in the New Hampshire primary, which is still the first such state on the Republican calendar. A good showing in the Granite State could provide him some momentum for other places particularly in the New England region. Looking at the bigger picture, another entry again makes the GOP race easier for former President Donald Trump.

Senate

Maryland: New Democrat Comes Forth — Joining the Maryland open US Senate Democratic primary race is telecom company executive and Gulf War veteran Juan Dominguez. He announced his candidacy at the end of last week. It is doubtful he will be a top-tier contender, since he must battle US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac), Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, and Montgomery County Councilman Will Jawando at a minimum. Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Takoma Park) and former Rep. John Delaney (D) also are potential candidates.

The May 14, 2024, plurality Democratic primary winner is a lock to succeed retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D) in November.

Tennessee: Potential Democratic Challenger — Tennessee state Rep. Gloria Johnson (D-Nashville), who was one vote away from being expelled from the House for her support of the gun control insurrection at the state Capitol earlier this year, said over the weekend that she is considering entering the US Senate race to challenge incumbent Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn.

Sen. Blackburn is poised for re-election and will be very difficult to unseat in a state that Donald Trump carried 61-37 percent in 2020. Sen. Blackburn defeated former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D), 55-44 percent, to initially win her seat in 2018.

House

NY-3: In and Out — As fast as New York television reporter Darius Radzius (D) entered the congressional race with the hope of challenging embattled freshman Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island) last week, he just as quickly closed his committee with the Federal Election Commission and withdrawn his candidacy “for personal reasons.”

Former state Sen. Anna Kaplan and Nassau County Legislator Josh Lafazan are the two most prominent Democrats to so far come forward. Former US Rep. Tom Suozzi (D), who left the seat in 2022 to run a long-shot gubernatorial campaign, says he is considering launching a comeback congressional race. Republicans are likely to find a new candidate, possibly in the person of state Sen. Jack Martins (R-Mineola), should Rep. Santos be convicted in court, expelled from the House, or defeated in a Republican primary.

VA Gov. Youngkin Officially Says No; Maryland Sen. Cardin to Retire;
Rep. Allred Indicating Texas Senate Candidacy; NH Mayor Setting Sites on Governorship; Gov. Inslee to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 3, 2023

President

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R)

Gov. Glenn Youngkin: Officially Says No — Verifying stories that had surfaced last week, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) at an appearance in California Monday confirmed that he will not be running for president in 2024. Clearly, the governor, serving his only four-year term allowable under Virginia law, was testing the national political waters but obviously does not perceive himself to have a viable victory path. (A Virginia governor can serve two terms, but not consecutively; only two governors in the history of the state served two non-consecutive terms.)

With former President Donald Trump dominating recent GOP nomination polling and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis a definable second, there is little room for a second-tier candidate to move to the top. Thus, the chance of this race evolving into a Trump vs. DeSantis national primary campaign continues to grow.

Senate

Maryland: Sen. Ben Cardin to Retire — Veteran Maryland officeholder Ben Cardin (D) announced that he will not seek a fourth US Senate term next year, retiring after serving what will be a storied 58 consecutive years in elective office when combining his time in the state legislature, the US House of Representatives, and Senate. He made the announcement Monday.

We can expect to see a spirited battle forming to succeed Sen. Cardin in the Democratic primary. With Republicans having little chance to win a Maryland statewide Senate race in a presidential election year, especially with their best potential candidate, former two-term Gov. Larry Hogan, already saying he will not run, the real battle will be in next year’s Democratic nomination process.

US Reps. John Sarbanes (D-Baltimore), son of former Sen. Paul Sarbanes, David Trone (D-Potomac), and Jamie Raskin (D-Takoma Park), along with Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks are all potential Senate candidates. Cardin is the third senator to announce retirement plans. He follows Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) and Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) who earlier made their intentions public.

Texas: Rep. Allred Moving Toward Senate Announcement — Democratic leaders have been making a play to recruit three-term US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas), a former NFL football player, to challenge Sen. Ted Cruz (R) next year. It appears their efforts will be successful. Though gaining a safe Democratic seat in 2021 redistricting, Rep. Allred appears poised to enter the Senate race as early as this week.

While Rep. Allred is likely the strongest potential candidate among the Texas Democratic possibilities, Sen. Cruz would remain favored to win a third term, particularly in a presidential year where Texas again would be expected to support the Republican nominee. Still, the Allred candidacy will make this Senate contest much more competitive, and Texas would become the Democrats’ top national conversion target.

Governor

New Hampshire: Democrat Files Gubernatorial Exploratory Committee — Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D), who has already announced that she will not be seeking re-election next year, announced the filing of a gubernatorial exploratory committee on Monday.

Gov. Chris Sununu (R), only the second Granite State chief executive to serve four consecutive terms in office could run for a fifth two-year term. Most believe that he will retire, however, and could well enter the presidential campaign as a favorite son from the first-in-the-nation primary state. It had been speculated upon for several months that Mayor Craig would make the jump into the 2024 gubernatorial campaign.

Washington: Gov. Jay Inslee to Retire — Evergreen State Gov. Jay Inslee (D), a former congressman and presidential candidate, announced yesterday that he will not seek a fourth term in office saying that “it is time to pass the torch.”

Lt. Gov. Denny Heck, Attorney General Bob Ferguson, and state Land Commissioner Hilary Franz are all potential Democratic candidates. Former US Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler is the Republican attracting the most attention as a potential GOP contender. Democrats will be favored to maintain the office, but a Republican advancing from the all-party jungle primary is also a likelihood.

Gallego Leads in Three-Way Polling; Montana Jungle Primary System Appears Dead; Rep. Bost Challenger in IL-12; Calif. Gubernatorial Candidate Announces; NH Candidate Jockeying;

By Jim Ellis — April 26, 2023

Senate

Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego (D)

Arizona: Rep. Gallego (D) Leads in New Three-Way Polling — Rep. Ruben Gallego’s (D-Phoenix) US Senate campaign released its internal Public Policy Polling survey that gives the congressman healthy leads over all of the potential Republican opponents as well as incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I). The PPP poll (April 18-19; 559 Arizona voters) finds that former gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake performs best of the potential Republican nominees, trailing 42-35-14 percent with Sen. Sinema in third place. The poll also finds the incumbent plagued with a poor 27:50 percent favorability index.

These results are much different than the recent OH Predictive Insights poll that perched Gallego in the low 30s and Sen. Sinema hovering around the 20 percent mark with a favorability rating much closer to even. Expect to see many polls being released throughout this unique Senate campaign.

Montana: Top Two Primary Idea Appears Dead — The state measure to use the 2024 US Senate race as a test case for a top two all-party jungle primary system appears to be dead. GOP state legislators appear not to have the stomach to move forward with the test, even though the state Senate had originally passed the legislation.

Republicans were apparently trying to eliminate the probability of the Libertarian candidate attracting in the three percent range, which is common in Montana. The belief is most of those votes would go to a Republican candidate. Therefore, eliminating minor party candidates from the general election ballot would at least theoretically make Sen. Jon Tester’s (D) road to re-election much more difficult.

House

IL-12: Ex-GOP Gubernatorial Nominee to Challenge Rep. Mike Bost (R) — Former Illinois state senator and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Darren Bailey (losing 55-42 percent to Gov. J.B. Pritzker, D) is reportedly testing the political waters for a primary challenge to five-term Rep. Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro/Carbondale).

The 12th District is one of just three Republican seats in the state and occupies all of southern Illinois. It appears a Bailey victory path is difficult to chart, since Rep. Bost is solidly conservative and unlikely to upset the party base. Should Bailey move forward, this will be another race to watch in Illinois’ March 19, 2024, primary.

Governor

California: Lieutenant Governor Already Announces — California Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D) is wasting no time in making her intention known that she will run for governor in 2026. She announced Monday the formation of her campaign committee even though the electoral contest is still three years away from occurring. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) will be ineligible to seek a third term at that time. It had become common knowledge that Kounalakis would not enter the open 2024 US Senate race because she was planning a ’26 gubernatorial bid.

New Hampshire: Ex-Senate Candidate Eyes Governor Race — Former state Senate President Chuck Morse (R), who lost the 2022 Republican US Senate primary by one percentage point, confirms that he has interest in running for governor next year if incumbent Chris Sununu (R) decides not to seek a fifth term.

Though New Hampshire has just two-year gubernatorial terms, only Gov. Sununu and former Gov. John Lynch (D) have served four consecutive terms. Most believe that Gov. Sununu will not run a fifth time since he is a potential presidential candidate. It is possible, however, for him to enter the national campaign and still have time to again run for governor should he not succeed in his presidential effort. New Hampshire has one of the latest candidate filing deadlines and primary elections in the country.

Former US Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) is also frequently mentioned as a potential open-seat gubernatorial contender. Outgoing Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig attracts the most attention as a possible Democratic gubernatorial candidate.