Tag Archives: California

California Uncalled Races:
Into the Hundreds not Thousands

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 21, 2024

Vote Margins

U.S. Capitol Building

The vote margins in the two uncalled California House races have now dropped from the thousands into the hundreds, and though the counting is not over under the state’s laborious tabulation process, the chances of these races going final anytime soon are remote. In what are sure to be two razor-thin finishes, moving to a recount round is a virtual certainty.

In the state’s 13th District, with a reported 95 percent of the vote counted, Rep. John Duarte’s (R-Modesto) lead over former state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D) has dropped to just 227 votes. In Orange County’s 45th CD, incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel (R) has fallen behind her challenger, attorney Derek Tran (D), by 312 votes, also with a reported 95 percent of the vote counted.

If the tabulation percentages are correct, then an estimated 10,000 votes remain in CA-13 and approximately 17,000 in CA-45. If the trends break the way the districts have in the current tabulation, Rep. Duarte may win by just over 200 votes and Rep. Steel may lose by approximately 300 votes. There is no guarantee either of these contests will evolve as these calculations suggest, but the end result in both will be razor thin.

What is at stake is greater than the two House seats. Assuming Alaska Republican Nick Begich III survives the Ranked Choice Voting round in the state’s at-large seat, a result that will likely be known today, the House party division will drop to 219R – 215D –1V should the Democrats eventually take both uncalled California congressional seats. This count includes the vacant FL-1 seat of former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola).

President-Elect Donald Trump has already announced that he will nominate three House members, Gaetz plus Reps. Mike Waltz (R-FL) and Elise Stefanik (R-NY), to Administration positions. Waltz does not need Senate confirmation as National Security Advisor, so it is assumed he will resign from his House seat on or around the date Trump is sworn into office, Jan. 20, 2025. Stefanik will resign after she is confirmed to her position as US Ambassador to the United Nations.

All of these actions will eventually take the House Republican majority margin down to 217-215 with three vacancies. Special elections will then be called to fill the vacant seats. It is clear that Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis will schedule the two Sunshine State elections as quickly as possible, but such may not be the case in New York.

Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) has some legal leeway as to when she must schedule the special election for a vacant congressional seat. It’s conceivable she may be able to wait several months and place the special congressional election on the state elections ballot next autumn. In the past, she has moved quickly to schedule the two special congressional elections since she became governor, but those were for seats that Democrats were favored to win.

The political picture is different considering this particular vacancy (the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NY-21 as R+17) since it will have an effect upon the House majority status and benefit the Republicans. Therefore, Gov. Hochul may respond differently.

The projected party division total suggests that two other races headed for recounts will hold for the involved incumbents, Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) and Marcy Kaptur (D-OH).

As the House race counting finally winds down, it is clear that if the Republicans can hold the majority, it will come down to just a few votes nationally.

Kamala for Governor?

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 18, 2024

Governor

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Rumors abound in California that key Kamala Harris supporters will attempt to convince her to run for governor in 2026 when the seat next comes open. Incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), a Harris political ally, is ineligible to seek a third term.

The idea is reminiscent of Richard Nixon’s move in 1962 after he lost the 1960 presidential election to John F. Kennedy. Like Harris, Nixon had been elected as a US senator from California and then vice president under Dwight Eisenhower in 1956. Ten years earlier, Nixon was elected to the House of Representatives from a southern California congressional seat.

Nixon’s gubernatorial bid failed. He would lose to then-Gov. Pat Brown, father of future governor and presidential candidate Jerry Brown, by a 52-47 percent majority. Though Nixon carried California against Kennedy, he did so with a bare 50.1 – 49.5 percent margin, meaning a spread of 35,623 votes from a total voting universe of 6.48 million ballots. Therefore, the idea of Nixon running for governor after losing the presidential race was iffy at best.

In those days, however, California was a competitive political state, and a Republican candidate could win a statewide election. Ronald Reagan would prove such four years later as he unseated Gov. Brown with a landslide 58-42 percent election that translated into an almost one million vote spread win for the actor turned politician who was of course a future president. In that election, Reagan won 55 of the state’s 58 counties.

The situation for Harris would be different. In the 2024 election, she carried California over President-Elect Trump with a 58.7 – 38.2 percent vote split, far superior to Nixon’s tight victory margin.

In her lone Senate race, 2016, she captured almost 62 percent of the vote against then-Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Orange County) in a double-Democratic general election. In her two successful races for the job of California Attorney General, Harris recorded victory percentages of 57.5 and 46.0 percent. The latter contest, in 2010, proved only a half-point win for Harris, but that was her first statewide run and California was more politically competitive during that period than today.

Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D) and state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) are already announced gubernatorial candidates. Former State Controller Betty Yee (D) and ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D) are also formally announced candidates. In the state’s top-two primary system, it is possible that two Democrats could again advance into the general election.

Therefore, Harris placing first in a multi-candidate jungle primary election would likely be the projected outcome, thus putting her in a strong position for the general election.

As Senator-Elect Adam Schiff (D) surmised in his statewide race, it would be to her benefit to draw a Republican opponent in the general election rather than another accomplished Democrat.

Though Republicans are far from being competitive enough to win a California statewide general election, their cumulative percentages in 2024 were an improvement over recent election cycles. Therefore, there is a greater possibility that the California GOP has enough strength to qualify a well-known general election finalist in 2026 as former baseball great Steve Garvey (R) was able to do in the ’24 open US Senate campaign.

While it remains unclear as to whether Kamala Harris will attempt a political comeback after her decisive national loss, returning to California to compete in an open 2026 governor’s race would be a logical place to make such a move should she so decide.

Final States Called for 2024; Gallego Wins Arizona; Five California Races Called; NE-2, OR-5 Winners

2024 Final Election Results / Click here for interactive map: CNN.com

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 11, 2024

National Vote

Final States Called: Presidential Map Complete — The final presidential map appears to be in the books with projections recorded for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. President-Elect Donald Trump clinched 312 electoral votes versus Vice President Kamala Harris’s 266 tally.

Trump won all seven battleground states, with North Carolina voting for him in all three of his elections. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin again voted for Trump after doing so in 2016 but choosing President Joe Biden in 2020. Nevada, which voted Democratic in both 2016 and 2020, switched to Trump in this election year.

In the two previous elections, the winning candidate, Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, received 306 electoral votes. For the first time, it appears Trump will also win the national popular vote. Though he won the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton scored a popular vote victory.

Senate

Arizona: Rep. Gallego Wins — In what was predicted to be an easier road for Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) to replace retiring Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I), the Grand Canyon State Senate race was finally projected over the weekend in the Democratic representative’s favor. With 89 percent of the Arizona vote tallied, Rep. Gallego tallies 49.7 percent support while his opponent, Republican former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake recorded a better than expected 48.2 percent. The raw number difference at this point in the counting is 44,882 votes.

With Republican victories over Senate Democratic incumbents in Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and winning the open Democratic seat in West Virginia, the Republicans will lead the new Senate with a 53-47 majority.

House

California: Five CA Races Called, Seven More Outstanding — As we will remember, California is the state that requires the longest period to count their votes. Over the weekend, five Golden State congressional races were called. Included in the list of official winners are Reps. Ami Bera (D-Elk Grove/Sacramento), David Valadao (R-Hanford), Julia Brownley (D-Westlake Village/Ventura), Jay Takano (D-Riverside), and Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano).

The California seats will go a long way toward determining a House majority. Still uncalled are the races for Reps. Josh Harder (D-Truckee/Stockton), John Duarte (R-Modesto), Jim Costa (D-Fresno), Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita), Ken Calvert (R-Corona), and Michelle Steel (R-Orange County). Also uncalled is Orange County’s open 47th District. All of these incumbents with the exception of Rep. Garcia lead in the counting process. The outstanding vote percentage range stretches from 14-38 percent.

A total of 10 races remain uncalled and they will determine the House majority. Of the 10, the Republican candidate leads in six races. To claim a bare 218-217 majority, the Republicans need win only two of the 10 uncalled contests.

NE-2: Rep. Bacon Declared a Winner — While the election night counting trended against veteran Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha), the political overtime tally yielded the opposite result and the congressman has unofficially been re-elected to a fifth term. With 95 percent of the vote now counted, Bacon clinched victory with 51.2 percent support as compared to state Sen. Tony Vargas’ (D-Omaha) 48.8 percent. The percentages reveal a Bacon margin of 7,150 votes from the 307,342 counted ballots.

OR-5: Rep. Chavez-DeRemer (R) Unseated — Though just a few incumbents were defeated in the 2024 election, another loss was projected over the weekend. Oregon freshman Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) failed in her campaign against state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas) who won a plurality vote victory. With 90 percent of the vote counted, Bynum clinched the election with a 47.8 to 45.0 percent margin, or a vote spread of 10,454 votes from the 372,162 counted ballots.

In addition to Rep. Chavez-DeRemer, the losing incumbents were New York Reps. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park), Mark Molinaro (R-Red Hook), and Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse), along with Pennsylvanians Susan Wild (D-Allentown) and Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton).

Census Preview: California Could Lose Four Congressional Districts

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 18, 2024

Redistricting

California Congressional Districts (click on image
for larger view)

Though it is early in the current decade, The American Redistricting Project organization released their latest projections about the 2030 national reapportionment, and the most notable prediction is that California could lose four of their current 52 congressional seats.

Such a downturn would be extraordinary for a state that in the 1980 census gained seven new seats. To put their 1980 number in perspective, the 2020 census yielded seven total seats that switched states.

In 1930, Congress put a cap on the number of US House seats at 435, a figure that is still in existence today. Prior to that time, when states gained in population and were entitled to increased representation, seats were simply added to the chamber and no state lost districts. After 1930, when additional congressional seats were awarded, other states had to lose.

According to the ARP’s early 2030 projections, a total of 13 districts — if the present trends continue throughout the rest of the decade — would change states, almost double the number that switched domains in the current reapportionment.

The projected big gainers are Texas (+4) and Florida (+3). Florida is also thought to be on the bubble for an additional fourth seat. The other one-seat gainers would be Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Utah.

Idaho and Tennessee would be new entries as gainers since the others have added seats in the most recent preceding decades. Idaho was the fastest growing state in the country during the last decade, at a rate of 21 percent, but did not increase their representation. Under the apportionment formula, it is difficult for the small states to gain and lose seats, while the big states can more easily gain, but also lose, districts.

The states projected to lose seats, in addition to California, would be New York (3) and Illinois (2) with the following losing one seat apiece: Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.

Oregon would be the most interesting state in this group. In the current 2020 census, the state gained a sixth congressional district. According to the ARP projections, they would lose their new seat in 2030 and return to a five-district contingent.

The addition of Minnesota and Rhode Island on the losing state list is not particularly surprising. Both were on the cusp of losing their eighth and second seats, respectively, in the 2020 census but the reapportionment formula barely spared the pair.

Since 1930, Pennsylvania has been the state that has lost the highest number of seats. Should they lose another in 2030, their delegation will drop to 16. In 1930, the Pennsylvania delegation had 36 members.

Two not on the losing list, reversing the trend from multiple decades, are Michigan and Ohio, though the 13th Michigan seat appears on the cusp of being eliminated.

At this point, states on the cusp of losing seats (but in this count would not) in addition to Michigan, are Louisiana and Wisconsin. States that just miss gaining are Florida, which would mean an addition of four instead of three, and South Carolina, possibly gaining one, while New York would potentially avoid losing a third seat.

The reapportionment would also affect the Electoral College, as it did in the current census. Because of reapportionment, the Republicans, in this case former President Donald Trump, gained a net three electoral votes because of congressional seats changing states. These three votes, in such a close election, could prove determinative since the victory projections for either presidential candidate are very tight.

If the 2030 projections are correct, the 13 seats switching states, under current voting trends, would net the Republicans approximately 11 electoral votes, which would be a massive boost to their prospects of electing future presidents.

The 2030 census is still well into the future, and these projections often change as actual trends begin to form. What the projections do tell us is the changing population patterns begun in the previous decade have accelerated in the current period.

Fischer in Trouble in Nebraska;
Tight CA-16 Double-Dem Election; Congressional Leadership Fund Ponies Up; DA Gascon Headed for Defeat in Los Angeles

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 11, 2024

Senate

Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer (R)

Nebraska: Ricketts Family to the Rescue — With the new Impact Research poll (Oct. 1-3; 600 likely Nebraska voters; multiple sampling techniques) being released and showing the same pattern we’ve seen in other recent surveys again suggests that Sen. Deb Fischer (R) is inexplicably in political trouble. Whereas the same poll finds former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris 58-38 percent, Independent Dan Osborn continues to forge small leads. Here, he leads Sen. Fischer 48-46 percent.

Entering the race to help boost the senator’s prospects is the ESAFund Super PAC, formerly known as the Ending Spending Action Fund. The organization announced it is laying down $2 million for further advertising in the Nebraska Senate race, likely in the form of ads to negatively define Osborn. Sen. Pete Ricketts’ (R) family were the principal funders of the organization, so it would make sense that they would come to Sen. Fischer’s aid.

House

CA-16: Double-Dem General Election Going to the Wire — An EMC Research poll for a Super PAC that supports state Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) for an open congressional seat shows a very close race between him and former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D). The survey, however, is a month old, which makes the result much less credible. The poll’s ballot test (for Equality California; Sept. 5-10; 600 likely CA-16 voters; live interview, text & email) posted Liccardo to a 48-45 percent lead.

Releasing the survey after so much time had elapsed suggests the Low supporters are possibly finding that momentum is turning Liccardo’s way. Therefore, promoting the dated poll may be serving as a way to artificially boost Low and disguise what is likely a much bigger Liccardo advantage.

This is one of three congressional double Democratic general elections that California’s jungle primary system produced in the early March qualifying election. Incumbent Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) is retiring after what will be 16 terms of service in the House plus 10 years on the San Mateo County Board of Supervisors.

Congressional Leadership Fund: Invests $5 Million of New Money — The Congressional Leadership Fund, a major Super PAC that has a close association with the House Republican leadership, just announced additional media buys totaling $5 million for six different campaigns according to The Down Ballot political blog.

The new CLF race is that of Wisconsin freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) who has been under heavy attack from outside groups including the Vote Vets organization. Rep. Van Orden, who converted a western Wisconsin seat in 2022 that Democrat Ron Kind had represented for 26 consecutive years, is working to repel a challenge from businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D).

Other incumbent races slated for an influx of support are those of Reps. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ) and Marc Molinaro (R-NY). Also receiving additional aid are the challenger efforts of state Reps. Gabe Evans (CO-8 vs. Rep. Yadira Caraveo) and Austin Theriault (ME-2 vs. Rep. Jared Golden), and former US Rep. Yvette Herrell (NM-2 vs. Rep. Gabe Vasquez).

Cities

Los Angeles County: DA Gascon Headed for Defeat: The campaign of first-term Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascon (D), who has become the face of controversial prosecution and bail policies, is in serious trouble. A new University of California at Berkeley’s Institute for Government Studies poll (for the Los Angeles Times; Sept. 25-Oct. 1; 908 likely LA County voters; online) finds Independent challenger Nathan Hochman crushing Gascon by 30 percentage points, 51-21 percent.

In the March primary, Gascon placed first in a field of 12 candidates, but could only manage 25 percent of the vote. Such a low percentage for an incumbent is an ominous sign for the general election, and this latest survey certainly confirms such a pattern. Before moving to Los Angeles and entering the DA race in 2020, Gascon served for eight years as the San Francisco County District Attorney.

Senate Recap – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024

Senate

In a three-part series, we examine the latest in the 21 US Senate races that are either competitive or where a new senator will succeed an incumbent not seeking re-election. In alphabetical order, we begin today with Arizona and move through Michigan. Tomorrow, we look at Minnesota through New Mexico, and on Friday, end with the competitive races from Ohio to Wisconsin.

Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego (D)

Arizona — Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) is retiring after one term, and it appears that Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) will be her successor in January. Rep. Gallego has successfully created a more moderate image than his record in the House might depict. His campaign is emphasizing his military record and addresses the border issue, which has greater effect in Arizona than most states.

Republicans, nominating former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, have also yielded the inside track to Rep. Gallego. Lake’s continued accusations that voter fraud cost her the 2022 election has soured most swing voters. Rep. Gallego leads in all polls, and with an average position of 7-plus points in nine September polls and two tracks. Expect Rep. Gallego to officially claim the seat in November.

California — While former baseball great Steve Garvey (R) performed well in California’s crowded jungle primary election back in June, and even placed first in the special election to permanently replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), he is no match for Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) in a two-way match.

Schiff’s advertising about Garvey being too conservative during the primary helped elevate the Garvey candidacy with Republicans, thus the congressman got the general election opponent he desired. A GOP candidate has virtually no chance today in a California statewide race. Schiff will win in a landslide.

Delaware — Sen. Tom Carper (D) is retiring and leaves the seat to at-large Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington). This open race is nothing more than an easy re-election bid for the congresswoman who already represents the entire state.

Florida — Sen. Rick Scott (R) is on the ballot for a second term, after winning his initial federal election by just over 10,000 votes from more than eight million ballots cast. In that election, Scott, then the state’s governor, unseated veteran Sen. Bill Nelson (D). This time, Sen. Scott faces former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), who held a south Florida seat for one term before current Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Miami) unseated her in 2020.

While polling again shows a close race – Sen. Scott leads by just over three percentage points in seven September polls and two tracks – the Florida electorate’s political composition has drastically changed from six years ago.

In 2018, when Sen. Scott was first elected, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by over 257,000 registrants. Today, Republicans hold a 956,000-plus advantage over Democrats, meaning the state has changed in the GOP’s favor by more than 1.2 million individuals. This is the main reason that pollsters underestimated the 2022 Florida statewide Republican strength by an average of seven points.

Expect Sen. Scott to win by a bigger margin than the polling currently indicates.

Indiana — With first-term Sen. Mike Braun (R) eschewing a second term to launch what appears to be a successful run for governor, Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) finds himself with one of the easiest open Senate runs in decades. Banks was unopposed in the Republican primary and is pitted against a weak Democratic contender in the general election. Rep. Banks will easily win the Senate seat in November and protect the open seat for the GOP.

Maryland — Sen. Ben Cardin (D) is retiring after a remarkable 58 years in elective office, counting his time in the state legislature, the US House, and of course the Senate. In his wake we have seen two rather astonishing campaigns, the first in the Democratic primary where US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) spent $62 million of his own money only to lose to Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks by just over 10 percentage points in the May election.

The second surprise is the closeness of the general election in what has performed as one of the Democratic Party’s strongest states. Former two-term Gov. Larry Hogan (R), still a popular figure in Maryland, is clearly the best candidate the Republicans could field, and he is making the race close.

Whether he can overtake Alsobrooks now that Vice President Kamala Harris is the party nominee and has activated the base voter to a greater degree than President Joe Biden, is very much in doubt. It seems what is a potential 30-point Harris victory in Maryland might be too high an obstacle for even Gov. Hogan to scale.

While this is an expensive race and one that is clearly in play, Alsobrooks must remain as at least a nominal favorite to succeed Sen. Cardin.

Michigan — Four-term incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D) was the first 2024 in-cycle senator to announce that she would not seek re-election. She yields to what has become a highly competitive race between Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R).

While Michigan trends Democratic, the polling has been quite close both in this race and for the presidential campaign. Unlike most of the other states where former President Donald Trump is running either ahead or in a dead heat with Harris, the Michigan Republican Senate candidate has not lagged. In the other Senate states, and particularly those with an incumbent Democrat seeking re-election, the GOP contender is running well behind Trump’s standing.

In the Wolverine State, we see 14 polls and two tracks being conducted during the month of September. Slotkin leads in all but one, with an average percentage point edge of just over five even though she has an almost 5:1 edge in campaign resources. Outside spending has been heavy, but here Republicans have more than a three million dollar edge among the $45-plus million already expended.

While Rep. Slotkin has a small but clear advantage in this statewide campaign, a stronger than expected performance from Trump at the top of the GOP ticket could give Rogers the extra push he needs to score the upset victory.

VP Harris Holds Slight Edge in Nevada; Balance of Senate Tested; Senate Money in Maryland; Examining California’s Key Districts

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 27, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Nevada: New Polling Data Tracking with 2020 Result — Noble Predictive Insights tested the Nevada electorate in reference to the presidential campaign and finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by only a percentage point, 48-47 percent.

Looking at the geographic division in the Noble poll and comparing it to Gov. Joe Lombardo’s (R) victorious 2022 votes received from Clark County (Las Vegas), Washoe County (Reno), and the rural Nevada areas, the Trump figures are equivalent to Lombardo’s performance in Clark and Washoe. It is the rural areas where Trump will need to slightly improve if he is to carry the state.

While he will outpace Harris by better than 2:1 in this region, Trump’s 2020 performance in the rural areas was a point behind Lombardo’s 2022 total. Considering Trump lost to then candidate Joe Biden by 2.3 percentage points here in 2020, the former president will need to improve slightly upon Lombardo’s numbers in all regions, but especially in the rural areas, if he is to compensate for his previous deficit.

Senate

FiveThirtyEight: Releases New Senate Mean Average Data — The FiveThirtyEight data organization released new mean averages for all the competitive Senate races and, for the most part, the numbers are consistent with averages publicized on other platforms.

While Democrats have relatively small but consistent leads in most of the competitive states, the Republican average is stronger (+3) in Montana, where a Tim Sheehy (R) victory over Sen. Jon Tester (D) would likely clinch an outright GOP Senate majority. The race that appears to be getting closer is in Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D) average advantage has dropped to three percentage points. The candidate with the strongest average is Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) at +9.

Maryland: Big Media Buy for Hogan Allies — Reports from the Free State are indicating that the Maryland’s Future Super PAC organization, which supports former Gov. Larry Hogan (R), has been reserving $18.2 million of advertising time for between now and the election. This is twice the amount that Democratic nominee Angela Alsobrooks is spending. Expect to see a large amount of Super PAC money to come to Alsobrooks’ rescue. The Democratic leadership and her outside allies will ensure the spending gap is at least equalized.

House

California: USC Releases Polls for Key Districts — The University of Southern California and the Center for Urban Politics and Policy at Cal State University Long Beach partnered to test eight California congressional districts. Two were Democrat vs. Democrat campaigns, and another found the sample size dropping significantly below an adequate level, so the numbers in CA-22 — Rep. David Valadao (R) vs. Rudy Salas (D) — should not be considered as viable. In the two Democratic seats, Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) board member Lateefah Simon leads in Rep. Barbara Lee’s (D-Oakland) open 12th District and former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo posts a sizable advantage in Rep. Anna Eshoo’s (D-Atherton) open 16th CD.

Interestingly, in only one of two races where the Republican candidate held a lead, the USC poll features a GOP challenger. Former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R) held a three-point lead over state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) in an open contest where the latter man’s most prevalent negative is his highly publicized drunk driving conviction. The other leader is Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) who posted only a one-point edge over former federal prosecutor and 2022 general election finalist Will Rollins (D).

The Democrats who were leading Republican incumbents were Adam Gray over Rep. John Duarte (one point difference), George Whitesides topping Rep. Mike Garcia (+2), and Derek Tran leading Rep. Michelle Steel (+2).
The pollsters interviewed 2,395 likely voters in the five congressional districts during the Sept. 14-21 period. Interestingly, the undecided voters, when pushed, leaned toward Reps. Duarte and Calvert, and for the Democratic candidate in the other three contests.

In terms of the presidential vote, Kamala Harris led in all tested districts against Donald Trump but ran an average of three percentage points behind Joe Biden’s 2020 tallies. All of these races are very much in play, and the turnout model will likely be the deciding factor.