Tag Archives: Kamala Harris

Problems for Both Parties

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 13, 2025

House

It appears that both major political parties have problems to overcome in order to achieve success in the 2026 congressional midterm elections.

Earlier this month, we produced a Political Update that found Democratic voter registration is down in all 31 states that record a voter’s political affiliation (Democrats Down in All States). In comparison, Republican registration under the same time parameters is up as a percentage to the whole in 23 of the 31 states. The Independent, or Non-affiliated option is up in 18 of the party registration state universes.

Since the Democratic downturn appears at least partially related to a reduction in their traditional share of younger and new voters, this is a serious trend that the party leaders must address.

The Republicans, however, also have a potential enthusiasm problem — or perhaps an organizational problem — which could be a warning sign for the 2026 midterm elections.

The Down Ballot political blog mathematicians have been researching the special elections held after the 2024 presidential contest and have illustrated that Republican performance in almost every instance has significantly underperformed the baseline that President Donald Trump set last November.

So far in 2025, there have been 29 special elections for state legislature (27) and the US House of Representatives (2) in 12 states. In two instances, state Senate seats in Iowa and Pennsylvania, Democratic candidates converted traditional GOP districts and seats where, according to The Down Ballot calculations, the Republican candidate underperformed the combined Trump-Kamala Harris total by a net 25 (Iowa) and 16 (Pennsylvania) percentage points.

The mean average Republican underperformance factor in all 29 special election districts is 16.4 percent under Trump’s performance against Harris, and 12.2 percent below his standing against President Joe Biden in 2020.

Earlier this week, on Tuesday, June 10, six state legislative special elections were held — three in Florida, two in Oklahoma, and one in Massachusetts. The result pattern was mixed. In Oklahoma, though in a strongly Democratic district, the Republican nominee, again according to The Down Ballot statisticians, ran a whopping net 50 percentage points behind the combined Trump vs. Harris 2024 recorded vote.

Looking at the other Oklahoma state House special election, the Republican candidate won the seat but fell below the Trump vs. Harris combined percentage by a net 13 points.

Yet, in a Massachusetts state Senate special election, the Republican candidate overperformed, losing the election by just 21 votes, which proved a net five percentage point increase over the 2024 presidential result.

Republican candidates held all three seats the party risked in the June 10 Florida special elections, one in the state Senate and two in the state House. Yet, they again fell below the Trump Republican performance standard, this time by a net nine, 11, and 21 percentage points.

The question that must be asked in reflecting on this data is whether the Republican candidates are underperforming, or is President Trump simply an over-achiever? The answer could be a combination of the two scenarios. What has become clear, however, is that a Trump voter is not necessarily a Republican partisan, and many are not habitual voters. This means a significant number of individuals within the Trump coalition are simply unlikely to participate in a special election even though they come to the polls when the President himself is on the ballot.

Furthermore, it is also unlikely that the Republican special election underperformance is a result of people changing their allegiance as a protest to the Trump Administration. Rather, it is probable that the most prolific reason for the GOP’s lesser 2025 track record is failing to convince enough of their coalition to return to the polls for the irregular and under-publicized elections.

Pertaining to the 2026 congressional midterms, both parties must return to basics in order to energize their coalitions. Democrats must find a solution to their young and new voter problem, while Republicans must develop better messaging to convince the casual Trump voter to cast a ballot to help their President’s allies.

Early House Vulnerables

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 30, 2025

House

The Trump influence / Photo by Gage Skidmore

There will be a considerable number of contested US House seats in the 2026 election cycle, and the watch list begins with the members who won either election or re-election in a district where the electorate voted for the opposite party’s presidential candidate.

There are 16 such districts; 13 that President Trump carried while a Democrat won the House race, and three opposites; that is, districts where Kamala Harris proved victorious, but a Republican clinched the House campaign.

Today, we take a glimpse at the early races in the ticket-splitting seats where a clear general election campaign is already developing.

In terms of the Trump performance, the President carried 230 of the 435 US House districts in the 2024 election cycle. It is not until we reach Trump’s 197th-strongest seat do we see a Democrat win in a CD where the President prevailed.

• Though Trump scored a 53-44 percent victory in Maine’s 2nd District, Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) survived a close re-election battle with then-state Representative and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault (R) with 50.3 percent of the vote.

In 2026, it appears that Golden will face former two-term Gov. Paul LePage (R) in what promises to be a national congressional campaign. Rep. Golden has won four consecutive elections in the 2nd CD, but Gov. LePage has also carried the seat in all three of his gubernatorial runs.

• Turning to northern California’s 13th District, Republican incumbent John Duarte fell to Democrat Adam Gray by just 187 votes even with President Trump recording a victory margin of almost six percentage points. In 2026, Republicans are coalescing around Ceres Mayor Javier Lopez, who earned an endorsement from former Rep. Duarte when the defeated member announced that he would not return for a re-match.

• North Carolina’s 1st District was significantly changed in the 2023 redistricting plan and therefore will again be competitive in 2026. GOP candidate Laurie Buckhout, who held Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill/Rocky Mount) to a 49.5 – 47.8 percent re-election victory, accepted a Trump Administration appointment and will not run for Congress next year.

The Buckhout decision sets the stage for Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson (R) to make a return appearance and become an early consensus candidate. Roberson ran for the seat in 2022 but lost the Republican primary.

• Texas veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) survived his re-election campaign against a weak Republican candidate even with a federal indictment hanging over his head and President Trump scoring a 53.2 – 45.9 percent victory within the district confines.

Former Congresswoman Mayra Flores (R), who twice lost to Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) in the neighboring 34th District, announced that she will switch districts next year to challenge Rep. Cuellar. With a changing district and Flores as the GOP nominee (though she faces a Republican primary with, so far, only minor opponents), this district will attract more national attention in 2026.

• The most pro-Kamala Harris seat to elect a Republican Congressman is found in Omaha, Nebraska. While Harris clinched the 2nd District with a 51.6 – 47.0 percent victory margin, Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) was able to secure a fifth term with a 50.9 percent win. Bacon says he is undecided about whether to seek re-election in 2026.

Democrats are looking for another candidate to replace twice-defeated former state Sen. Tony Vargas, so we could see much change coming here in preparation for next year’s election. Regardless of who becomes the eventual party nominees, NE-2 will host a hotly contested race and is most likely the top Democratic national conversion opportunity.

• New York Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) is contemplating a gubernatorial run, and a crowd of Democrats are lining up for what promises to be a bruising nomination battle. Six Democrats, two of whom are local elected officials, have already announced their candidacies. The Republican leadership and President Trump are encouraging Rep. Lawler to remain in the 17th District campaign.

• Moving southward from New York to Pennsylvania, Democratic leaders want to replace twice-defeated 1st District nominee Ashley Ehasz who lost to Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) 56-44% last November even though Kamala Harris was carrying the seat with a slight 49.7 to 49.4 percent margin. Look for Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie to become a consensus Democratic candidate.

The other races in this category are still developing. The remaining Democratic incumbents who won Trump districts and can expect tough re-election campaigns are:

  • Josh Harder (CA-9)
  • Kristen McDonald Rivet (MI-8)
  • Susie Lee (NV-3)
  • Nellie Pou (NJ-9)
  • Gabe Vasquez (NM-2)
  • Tom Suozzi (NY-3)
  • Marcy Kaptur (OH-9)
  • Vicente Gonzalez (TX-34)
  • Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-3)

California Dreamin’

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 21, 2025

Governor

Ric Grenell

An article from the News of the United States (NOTUS) organization published earlier in the week sheds some new light about a potential 2026 Governor’s race in California.
In fact, the article includes comments from several of the state’s GOP House members stating their belief that Republican Ric Grenell might have an outside chance of denying Kamala Harris the office if both choose to run next year.

Grenell is a Trump Administration official who is currently a special envoy along with serving as president and interim executive director of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts. Previously, in the first Trump Administration, Grenell was the US Ambassador to Germany and served as the Acting Director of National Intelligence. He has indicated that if Harris were to enter the race, running for Governor of California would be of interest to him.

“I think that we’ve got a good opportunity here because especially if Kamala Harris runs, I think that this will be a race that is very winnable,” says Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento). “I think that there very much is a coalition of Californians who would support a candidate who can deliver on that basic quality of life.”

Rep. Kiley is likely too optimistic. While President Donald Trump substantially improved his political standing within California, Kamala Harris still recorded a 58.5 – 38.3 percent statewide victory. In 2020, Joe Biden’s victory spread over Trump was 63.5 – 34.3 percent.

In 2020, Trump won 23 of California’s 58 counties. In 2024, he performed much better, actually winning a majority of the state’s counties (33 of 58). His problem: in the top 10 most populous counties, Trump prevailed in only three.

Of the top three population counties, Los Angeles, San Diego, and Orange, which account for 40 percent of the total California population, Trump was only able to average 39.7 percent of the vote. While this number is slightly better than his statewide percentage, the major liberal northern California counties of San Francisco, Alameda, San Mateo, Marin, and Santa Clara are not included in the top three most populous. Here, the current President averaged only 20.9 percent.

In 2020, Trump’s average numbers in the three largest counties were even worse: 36.3 percent. In the five sizable northern California counties, he posted a woeful mean average vote percentage of just 18.3.

While the chances of Grenell, or any other Republican, winning the Governorship in 2026 are virtually nil, Trump did increase his standing when compared to 2020 in 57 counties, which is an encouraging number for the GOP. Harris also under-performed President Joe Biden’s California vote totals in all but one county.

While the general election may be out of reach for a Republican, advancing from the state’s jungle primary apparatus is not.

Former Congresswoman Katie Porter (D) has already announced that she will run for Governor. While earlier saying she would stand aside for Harris, her announcement tour made no such declaration. Therefore, if she and Harris are on the all-party ballot with a Republican such as Grenell, it certainly would be within the realm of possibility to see either Porter or Harris not qualify for the general election. Under such a scenario, the primary voters would virtually elect the next Governor.

The other California Republican problem is the large amount of money needed to compete. Former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) was able to advance into the 2024 Senate general election largely because eventual winner Adam Schiff (D) ran ads in the more conservative regions of the state attacking Garvey as being too conservative and close to Trump.

Knowing that he would beat Garvey, or any other Republican in the general election, Schiff virtually financed Garvey’s campaign effort to propel him past Porter, who at that time was also running for Senate.

It is unlikely that we will see such a scenario in 2026. Therefore, Republicans will be forced to raise a large amount of early money to help secure a general election slot and then hope that the political environment would be such that a GOP candidate could score a long-shot win. With so many Senate races in play during this election cycle, it will be a tough sell to convince national major donors to back a Republican gubernatorial contender.

While Grenell may be one of the better candidates that California Republicans could attract, his chances of winning are likely far less than those beginning to promote him would publicly concede.

Iowa Poll Shows Trump’s Lead at Four Points; Two Incumbents Trail in California; Close Race in VA-2

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 17, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump ahead in Iowa.

Iowa: Selzer & Company Poll Shows Trump’s Lead at Four Points — Media stories are covering the newly released Selzer & Company Iowa poll, which has proven to be the state’s most accurate pollster. According to the Selzer survey (Sept. 8-11; 656 likely Iowa voters; live interview), former President Donald Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris is 47-43 percent, which is being cast as a closing of the race in what has proven to be a strong Trump state.

Researching the Selzer Sept. 17-19 Iowa poll in 2020, according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, the ballot test showed a tie between Trump and candidate Joe Biden. Biden would then move onto post an eight-point victory in the succeeding election.

House

CA-22: Rep. Valadao Trailing — California’s Fresno area 22nd District is the second-most Democratic seat that elects a Republican in the country. Therefore, Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) is always in a difficult re-election campaign. The Normington Petts research firm returned a late August survey (part of a six district series conducted for the House Majority PAC; 8/25-27; 400 CA-22 likely voters) that finds Rep. Valadao trailing former state assemblyman and 2022 opponent Rudy Salas (D) by two percentage points, 46-44 percent.

The analysis indicates that voters oppose Project 2025, feel it would be a “rubber stamp” for a new Trump Administration, and concentrates on the abortion issue. This suggests the series is in the push poll category. It is highly doubtful that in one of the lowest turnout districts in the country respondents would be familiar enough with Project 2025, a publication from the Heritage Foundation and not any candidate or the Republican Party, to harbor such a negative opinion. It is clear, however, that this race lies in the toss-up category as this poll shows.

CA-41: Strange Polling Results — There is little doubt that Republicans lost some momentum across the board in late August, but a newly released early September survey in California’s 41st District can’t be right. RMG Research conducted a series of online polls for US Term Limits over a long sampling period. The CA-41 poll (Sept. 5-12; 450 likely CA-41 voters; online) finds 16-term Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) trailing former federal prosecutor and 2022 Democratic nominee Will Rollins by a 41-35 percent split.

Calvert, who has represented the Riverside area for 32 years and defeated Rollins 52-48 percent in 2022, has to have more support than 35 percent in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+7. While this is again a competitive race, such a poll result, also with an unusually high undecided figure, should be considered as an outlier.

VA-2: Two Polls Show Close Race — A pair of congressional polls were released for the Tidewater area’s 2nd Congressional District. Both pollsters find close results, which is no surprise for a district that typically features tight campaigns. On the ballot is Virginia freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach) and businesswoman Missy Cotter Smasal (D). For the House Majority PAC — a Super PAC with ties to the Democratic leadership — Impact Research reports their results in a poll conducted in late August and part of a six district series (Aug. 20-25; 500 likely VA-2 voters; live interview) that gives Rep. Kiggans only a one point edge, 48-47 percent.

A more recent survey gives Kiggans some better news. Christopher Newport University tested the 2nd District electorate (Sept. 6-10; 792 likely VA-2 voters; live interview) and they find the congresswoman in stronger shape with a 45-40 percent edge.

RFK JR. Disqualified in New York; Green Party on Ballot in Nevada; Senate Incumbent Way Up in North Dakota; Finally, A Winner in UT-2

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, August 15, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Photo by Gage Skidmore

Robert F. Kennedy Jr: New York Disqualification — A New York judge has disqualified Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from appearing on the New York election ballot, ruling the address the candidate used in his submission documentation is not valid. This is yet another blow to Kennedy’s flailing campaign and further underscores the difficult road any non-major party contender is forced to traverse just to obtain ballot access in all 50 states.

Although with Kennedy not appearing on the New York ballot, it will have little effect upon the final results. As we know, the Empire State is one of the Democratic strongholds, and Vice President Kamala Harris will have little trouble in capturing the domain’s 28 electoral votes.

Kennedy has qualified for the ballot in 16 states, including three that appear as highly competitive: Michigan, New Mexico, and North Carolina.

Green Party: On Ballot in Nevada — A Nevada judge has ruled against the Nevada Democratic Party’s lawsuit that would have disqualified the Green Party from being on the state’s 2024 ballot. The judge ruled that the party’s ballot line will remain intact.

The judicial order means that Green Party candidate Jill Stein will be on the Silver State ballot, which Democrats obviously believe will hurt Kamala Harris. According to the national Green Party, the entity has secured a 2024 ballot line in 21 states and Stein will appear on four more ballots as an Independent. The party leadership is actively petitioning or awaiting certification in an additional 18 states.

Senate

North Dakota: Dem Poll Finds Cramer Well Up — A just-released Lake Partners Research survey of the North Dakota Senate race, the first published poll since mid-June (for the Katrina Christiansen campaign; July 28-Aug. 2; 500 likely North Dakota voters), sees movement toward the Democratic candidate while still yielding incumbent Sen. Kevin Cramer (R) a double-digit lead. The ballot test finds the senator’s lead at 51-38 percent. The previously released poll, from Public Opinion Strategies (June 15-19; 500 likely North Dakota voters; live interview), projected Sen. Cramer’s lead at 37 points.

Very likely, the ultimate outcome will fall somewhere in between these two surveys. Look for Sen. Cramer to easily win re-election to a second six-year term in a state that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+37.

House

UT-2: Recount Finally Yields Winner — Seven weeks after the Utah primary, a winner has finally been determined in the state’s 2nd Congressional District. Businessman Colby Jenkins (R) yesterday conceded the race to Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) ending a counting period that continued to drag onward.

The final vote count saw the two candidates separated by just 176 votes, which is still enough for Maloy to clinch her renomination bid. She is now a strong favorite to win a full term in the general election against Democratic nominee Nathaniel Woodward, an attorney. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates UT-2 as R+23. The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank the seat as 81st most vulnerable in the House Republican Conference.

Attack of the Attack Ads

(Sen. Perdue Ad)

By Jim Ellis

Nov. 17, 2020 — All four Georgia Senate runoff candidates are already hitting the airwaves with new messages that telegraph just where they want their campaigns to head in the final weeks of 2020 political overtime.

As you know, Sen. David Perdue (R) faces Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff for the in-cycle six-year term, and appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) opposes Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) in the special election to fill the final two years of resigned Sen. Johnny Isakson’s (R) final term. Loeffler was appointed when Isakson left office at the end of 2019 for health reasons. Both contests will be decided on Jan. 5.

The outcome will decide the Senate majority. If the Democrats sweep the two races, they will become the majority party because the new vice president, Kamala Harris, will break the 50-50 tie. If Republicans just win one of the two, they will maintain their current majority status, albeit smaller, at 51-49. Winning the pair means the GOP will have only lost a net of one seat in the 2020 election cycle as their majority would register 52-48.

Sen. Perdue set the tone of his runoff effort with a new ad (top) that highlights Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) saying, “when we (meaning the Democrats) take Georgia, we will change America.” The Perdue ad defines “the Schumer-Pelosi-Ossoff” change as “defund[ing] the police, voting rights for illegal immigrants, and making Washington, DC the 51st state.” The message then quotes Ossoff as saying, “change is coming to America.” The ad closes with the narrator saying, “believe them. Vote Perdue to stop them.”

(Jon Ossoff Ad)

Ossoff responds with an ad (above) solely devoted to COVID-19. The media consultants found virtually identical COVID related statements from President Trump and Sen. Perdue, and then runs their audio consecutively in an attempt to tie the two together. The ad closes with the narrator saying that “David Perdue ignored the medical experts, downplayed the crisis, and left us unprepared.”

The special election is taking a much different tone. Challenger Raphael Warnock, the Baptist minister who pastors the church over which Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. and his father once presided, Ebenezer Baptist in Atlanta, re-visits Sen. Loeffler’s controversial COVID related stock transactions and creates an ad around this subject (below).

(Raphael Warnock Ad)

The script says Sen. Loeffler, “after receiving confidential briefings on Coronavirus immediately starts dumping stocks …making sale after sale and getting rid of $3.1 million before the market crashed.” The tagline ends with the narrator saying, “Kelly is for Kelly. Warnock is for us.”

The ad, of course, makes no mention of Sen. Loeffler’s transactions being investigated and cleared by the Securities and Exchange Commission, but it is more than probable that we will be hearing that part of the story in future Loeffler campaign communications.

Sen. Loeffler launched a hard-hitting new attack centered around her theme, “saving the Senate is about saving America.” The ad attacks Rev. Warnock for “calling police thugs and gangsters, host[ing] a rally for Communist dictator Fidel Castro, and prais[ing] Marxism in speeches and writings.” (below)

https://youtu.be/sUTe8yemoJM(Sen. Loeffler Ad)

With the campaign battle lines being drawn early in this two-month runoff campaign, we can expect this type of hard-hitting rhetoric to continue all the way to the Jan. 5 election as both sides attempt to motivate their base voters to return for the runoff.

The last time we saw a US Senate runoff in Georgia – Georgia and Maine are the only two states that require general election winners receive majority support – occurred in 2008 when Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) was forced into a secondary vote. The circumstances were similar. Sen. Chambliss placed first in the general election but, like Sen. Perdue, finished just a few thousand votes under the 50 percent threshold (49.8 percent). This forced Chambliss and his opponent, Democrat Jim Martin who received 46.8 percent, into a Dec. 2 runoff election of that year.

Sen. Chambliss prevailed in the runoff with 57.4 percent of the vote. In that year, 3.752 million people voted in the general election with 2.138 million returned for the runoff election for a drop-off rate of 43 percent. In 2020, a total of 4,945,702 individuals cast a vote in the Perdue-Ossoff Senate race, while the figure was approximately 37,000 people lower for the special election, 4,907,872. While a drop-off from the 2020 general election is expected, political intensity suggests it will likely not be as high as we saw in the 2008 US Senate runoff campaign.

The Importance of the Jan. 5
Georgia Runoff Elections

By Jim Ellis

Georgia Sen. David Perdue (R)

Nov. 6, 2020 — With results changing as votes are continually being counted for the close Georgia presidential and senatorial races, it appears that we will see two Jan. 5 US Senate runoff elections in the Peach State, which will ultimately decide the body’s next majority.

At this writing, with an approximate 98 percent of votes counted, Sen. David Perdue (R), who will finish first, is 6,810 votes short of the majority mark. Georgia is one of two states where a candidate must receive 50 percent of the general election vote to win. The presence of Independent Shane Hazel capturing 2.3 percent helps deny Sen. Perdue a majority victory; hence, a second election is necessitated under Georgia election law.

Assuming that Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) wins his Alaska race – he’s ahead 62-32 percent with 50% of the vote reported – and incumbent Thom Tillis is officially re-elected in North Carolina, the Republicans will have 50 guaranteed members.

At this point, according to North Carolina officials, a number between 116-117,000 is the total universe of potential uncounted votes. This is the number of absentee ballots that were sent to voters who requested them but have yet to be returned. The only way they will be counted is if they entered the mail stream by Nov. 3 and are received before close of business on Nov. 12. Additionally, within this universe, Republican voters requested approximately one-third of the ballots.

With Sen. Tillis ahead by 96,688 votes according to the Fox News count, the mathematics suggest the Democrats have almost no chance of overcoming the lead especially when further considering that a significant percentage of those voters won’t even return the ballots.

To underscore the Democrats’ North Carolina dilemma, party nominee Cal Cunningham would have to receive 96,689 votes of this universe of just over 116,500 individuals, or 83 percent of the aggregate if everyone returns their ballots. If only 83 percent of those requesting the ballots have already mailed them to their respective county election center, for example, Cunningham would literally need to receive every vote. Therefore, this Senate race is a virtual lock for Sen. Tillis and the GOP.

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