Tag Archives: Dan Osborn

Here We Go Again

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 15, 2025

Senate

The 2024 election cycle featured a Nebraska US Senate race that was billed as a potential upset but failed as Election Day approached. That same losing Independent candidate looks to be returning in 2026, and a new poll suggests a repeating pattern.

Nebraska US Senate candidate Dan Osborn (I)

In 2024, Nebraska US Senate candidate Dan Osborn (I) received a great deal of national political attention because the polls were consistently showing him running ahead or even with Sen. Deb Fischer (R) for most of the campaign cycle.

In fact, from late September through the election, 12 polls were released of the Nebraska Senate race and Osborn led in seven. This, despite the electorate not voting for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964. Additionally, GOP nominees for Senator and Governor averaged 60.4 percent of the vote since 2006, which was the last time a Democratic Senator (Ben Nelson) or Governor was on the Cornhusker State ballot.

Osborn did well because the Democrats, once the Independent demonstrated he was a legitimate contender, decided not to file their own candidate. They were comfortable in supporting Osborn because he is generally in ideological alignment with the Democratic platform.

In the end, Sen. Fischer won re-election with a comfortable six-point margin and carried 91 of the state’s 93 counties.

Nebraska polling was inconsistent during the 2024 election cycle. The pollsters correctly predicted an easy Donald Trump victory and former Vice President Kamala Harris carrying the state’s 2nd Congressional District but largely missed the Senate race until the very end, while projecting Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) to be running consistently behind even though he again won a close re-election.

Now, a new Change Research poll finds another Nebraska US Senate dead heat result, this time between Osborn and Sen. Pete Ricketts (R). The recent CR data result (March 28-April 1; 524 likely Nebraska 2026 general election voters; online through Survey Monkey) projects Sen. Ricketts holding only a 46-45 percent lead over Osborn.

The Senator also posted an upside-down favorability index. According to the CR survey, only 38 percent of the respondents hold a favorable view of Ricketts, while 45 percent have an unfavorable impression. The same sample, however, rates President Trump with a 55:43 percent positive index.

The favorability numbers fly in the face of the November election returns where Sen. Ricketts, after being appointed to his seat in 2023, recorded a 63-37 percent election victory to serve the balance of the current term. He now must run again in order to clinch a full six-year stint.

The favorability responses for Trump and Ricketts are highly conflicting and certainly eyebrow raising in reference to the latter man. While the President records an 89 percent positive rating among the self-identified Republican respondents, and a 70 percent very favorable, Sen. Ricketts only posts 62 percent favorable among the same cell and a very low 29 percent very favorable mark. This, for a man the Nebraska Republicans have twice overwhelmingly nominated for Governor and once as Senator.

Though Change Research is a reputable pollster, Survey Monkey has proven unreliable. CR employing the Survey Monkey platform is a new methodological factor for the firm, so this particular poll’s reliability must be questioned. Both the current CR ballot test and favorability index in relation to Sen. Ricketts are not consistent with his strong historical electoral performance.

Additionally, the poll also assumes the Nebraska Democrats will not file their own Senate candidate in 2026 and back Osborn by default, as they did in 2024. So far this year, Osborn says he is considering several options which could mean challenging Sen. Ricketts, Gov. Jim Pillen (R), or Rep. Bacon. At this point, he seems to be focusing on Sen. Ricketts, but that may change since plenty of time remains before the state’s March 2026 candidate filing deadline.

For their part, the Democratic leadership has not openly committed to again supporting Osborn. They are likely to do so if he chooses to run against Ricketts, and possibly Gov. Pillen, but the party leaders have been cool to the idea of not filing their own candidate against Rep. Bacon in a politically marginal 2nd Congressional District where a Democrat can win.

Both ex-President Joe Biden and former VP Harris carried the NE-2 against President Trump in 2020 and 2024, yet Rep. Bacon was able to reverse the top-of-the-ticket trend in both of those years to secure re-election.

While Dan Osborn is likely to generate favorable polling responses in a two-way race with Sen. Ricketts and will attract a great deal in the way of campaign resources, electoral history and voting patterns again suggest that Sen. Ricketts should still enjoy a strong re-election run next year.

Fischer in Trouble in Nebraska;
Tight CA-16 Double-Dem Election; Congressional Leadership Fund Ponies Up; DA Gascon Headed for Defeat in Los Angeles

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 11, 2024

Senate

Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer (R)

Nebraska: Ricketts Family to the Rescue — With the new Impact Research poll (Oct. 1-3; 600 likely Nebraska voters; multiple sampling techniques) being released and showing the same pattern we’ve seen in other recent surveys again suggests that Sen. Deb Fischer (R) is inexplicably in political trouble. Whereas the same poll finds former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris 58-38 percent, Independent Dan Osborn continues to forge small leads. Here, he leads Sen. Fischer 48-46 percent.

Entering the race to help boost the senator’s prospects is the ESAFund Super PAC, formerly known as the Ending Spending Action Fund. The organization announced it is laying down $2 million for further advertising in the Nebraska Senate race, likely in the form of ads to negatively define Osborn. Sen. Pete Ricketts’ (R) family were the principal funders of the organization, so it would make sense that they would come to Sen. Fischer’s aid.

House

CA-16: Double-Dem General Election Going to the Wire — An EMC Research poll for a Super PAC that supports state Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) for an open congressional seat shows a very close race between him and former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D). The survey, however, is a month old, which makes the result much less credible. The poll’s ballot test (for Equality California; Sept. 5-10; 600 likely CA-16 voters; live interview, text & email) posted Liccardo to a 48-45 percent lead.

Releasing the survey after so much time had elapsed suggests the Low supporters are possibly finding that momentum is turning Liccardo’s way. Therefore, promoting the dated poll may be serving as a way to artificially boost Low and disguise what is likely a much bigger Liccardo advantage.

This is one of three congressional double Democratic general elections that California’s jungle primary system produced in the early March qualifying election. Incumbent Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) is retiring after what will be 16 terms of service in the House plus 10 years on the San Mateo County Board of Supervisors.

Congressional Leadership Fund: Invests $5 Million of New Money — The Congressional Leadership Fund, a major Super PAC that has a close association with the House Republican leadership, just announced additional media buys totaling $5 million for six different campaigns according to The Down Ballot political blog.

The new CLF race is that of Wisconsin freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) who has been under heavy attack from outside groups including the Vote Vets organization. Rep. Van Orden, who converted a western Wisconsin seat in 2022 that Democrat Ron Kind had represented for 26 consecutive years, is working to repel a challenge from businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D).

Other incumbent races slated for an influx of support are those of Reps. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ) and Marc Molinaro (R-NY). Also receiving additional aid are the challenger efforts of state Reps. Gabe Evans (CO-8 vs. Rep. Yadira Caraveo) and Austin Theriault (ME-2 vs. Rep. Jared Golden), and former US Rep. Yvette Herrell (NM-2 vs. Rep. Gabe Vasquez).

Cities

Los Angeles County: DA Gascon Headed for Defeat: The campaign of first-term Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascon (D), who has become the face of controversial prosecution and bail policies, is in serious trouble. A new University of California at Berkeley’s Institute for Government Studies poll (for the Los Angeles Times; Sept. 25-Oct. 1; 908 likely LA County voters; online) finds Independent challenger Nathan Hochman crushing Gascon by 30 percentage points, 51-21 percent.

In the March primary, Gascon placed first in a field of 12 candidates, but could only manage 25 percent of the vote. Such a low percentage for an incumbent is an ominous sign for the general election, and this latest survey certainly confirms such a pattern. Before moving to Los Angeles and entering the DA race in 2020, Gascon served for eight years as the San Francisco County District Attorney.

50-State Presidential Map; Fischer on Offense in Nebraska; Ohio Data Shows Tightening Race; A Casey Rebound in Pennsylvania

Morning Consult 2024 Election – State Polls (click on image to go to Morning Consult)

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 12, 2024

President

Morning Consult: Releases 50-State Presidential Map — The Morning Consult survey research organization conducts ongoing tracking surveys on a continuous basis and published a national map regarding presidential race polling. The results produced only two surprises.

In rating all of the states toward either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump, all of the traditional swing states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, are rated as toss-ups as one would expect. The two surprises lying in the Morning Consult toss-up category, however, are Maine and New Hampshire. Adding these two states to the undecided, if confirmed, could change the election outlook.

Senate

Nebraska: Sen. Fischer on Offense — Within the last week, polling has been released confirming earlier surveys that Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer (R) is in a surprisingly tight race with Independent candidate Dan Osborn. The senator is taking action. Her campaign has launched an attack ad against Osborn, questioning his independent credentials, tying him to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I), attacking him on abortion and the Green New Deal, and calling him a “Trojan Horse.”

The Fischer offensive move suggests that the campaign’s internal polling confirms what the public polls have reported: that a surprising close race is unfolding.

Ohio: More Data Suggesting a Closer Race — We now see a new release from Morning Consult (Aug. 30-Sept. 8; 1,558 likely Ohio voters; online panel) that also finds the Ohio Senate race getting closer. The MC ballot test results confirm in almost identical fashion the most recently released survey that finds Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D) lead dwindling. Morning Consult posted a 46-43 percent result.

The previous Emerson College survey (Sept. 3-5; 945 likely Ohio voters; multiple sampling techniques) released late last week produced a 46-44 percent split between Sen. Brown and Republican nominee Bernie Moreno. Previously, 10 consecutive polls found Brown’s edge to be on or around five percentage points, but he only secured majority support in two of the studies.

Since research shows that Sen. Brown over-polled in his previous race (2018) – his polling lead was 13 points headed into the election, but his victory margin was six – the current campaign is likely to get even tighter as we continue to move toward election month.

Pennsylvania: A Casey Rebound — At the end of August, four Pennsylvania Senate race polls found the contest between Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) and Republican businessman David McCormick falling into the toss-up realm with a ballot test range of 0-4 percentage points. It appeared a new race trend could be developing.

Now, however, we see Sen. Casey rebounding in an even newer series of studies. From the period of Sept. 3-9, four polls were released (CBS News; co/efficient; Morning Consult; and Redfield and Wilton Strategies) that produced data revealing Casey leads of 7, 9, 9, and 8 percentage points, yet the senator never reached 50 percent in any. The Pennsylvania Senate race should continue to be rated as Lean Democratic.

Ballot Decisions — Who’s In, Who’s Out; Nebraska News; Primary Results; Early Ballots Going Out

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 5, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Ballot: Key States Make Decisions — More states are finalizing their 2024 general election ballot, and we see new decisions announced in key battlegrounds. The North Carolina Board of Elections ruled that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) will remain on the ballot despite his withdrawal action. Kennedy says he will sue to overturn the board’s ruling.

In Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) declared that Kennedy can withdraw from the ballot, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein is disqualified. Making the Georgia ballot are Independent Cornel West and Communist Party nominee Claudia de la Cruz.

The new Virginia ruling includes Kennedy on the ballot but Dr. West is disqualified.

NE-2: Harris Leads in S-USA Poll — As part of Survey USA’s Nebraska statewide poll, the research organization tested the state’s 2nd District, the seat that can vote against the Republican statewide result and deliver an important electoral vote to the Democrats.

According to the S-USA results (Aug. 23-27; 507 NE-2 registered voters; multiple sampling techniques), Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by a 47-42 percent margin. This district is important because, if it votes Trump’s way, the CD could cause a tie in the Electoral College, thus sending the race to the House of Representatives to decide the final outcome.

Senate

Nebraska: Sen. Fischer’s Small Lead — The Survey USA statewide poll (Aug. 23-27; 1,293 registered Nebraska voters; multiple sampling techniques) again delivers unwelcome news for Sen. Deb Fischer (R), who is seeking her third term in office. Here, the Democrats are not fielding a candidate, instead throwing their backing behind an Independent candidate to form a coalition, similar to the way the Utah Democrats backed Independent Evan McMullin in 2022.

Though polling was suggesting a close race in Utah, the end result found Sen. Mike Lee (R) generally uniting right-of-center voters and winning re-election with a 53-43 percent vote spread. In this Nebraska poll, Sen. Fischer posts only a one point edge, 39-38 percent, over local union President Dan Osborn who is running on the Independent ballot line. While the Osborn standing at 38 percent is likely what one would expect for a left-of-center candidate in Nebraska, Sen. Fischer’s 39 percent poll total suggests severe under-performance.

Primary Results

Massachusetts: Most Will Run Unopposed — Attorney and Marine Corps veteran John Deaton easily defeated two other Republican candidates on Tuesday and will now face Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) in the general election. Obviously, Sen. Warren will be considered a prohibitive favorite in this most Democratic of states.

In the House, Rep. Richard Neal (D-Springfield) faces only Independent candidates in November. Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-South Boston) will again see opposition from 2022 GOP nominee Rob Burke in this year’s general election. Two years ago, Rep. Lynch was re-elected with 70 percent of the vote, and we can count on a similar result in November.

Rep. Bill Keating’s (D-Bourne) general election opponent is nurse Dan Sullivan (R), who was unopposed for his party’s nomination. As is the case for Rep. Lynch, Rep. Keating is considered a prohibitive favorite for re-election. The other six members of the Massachusetts US House delegation, all Democrats, are all unopposed in the general election.

States

Early Voting: Ballots Mailed This Week — The time for states to begin sending absentee ballots to voters is here. The first state to begin mailing ballots is North Carolina, and their deadline for posting is tomorrow, Friday, Sept. 6th. Three states will open early voting polling places on the 20th of this month: Minnesota, South Dakota, and Virginia. A fourth, Illinois, will follow suit six days later.

All but three states, Alabama, Mississippi, and New Hampshire, have some form of early voting. Clearly early voting changes campaign strategies, and certainly the political calendar. Instead of election day, we now have election month. Charting early voting has become a valuable way of monitoring voter intensity, which often is a victory momentum indicator.