Category Archives: Mayor

Today: Election Preview

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 16, 2023

Today’s Election Preview

Voting will occur in several places around the country today, including the Kentucky governor’s primary election. Two cities, Jacksonville and Colorado Springs, will choose their mayor, and a razor-thin result is expected in the hotly contested Philadelphia open Democratic mayoral primary.

Kentucky Governor

The Republican gubernatorial primary has transformed into a rather unique contest in that the Trump-endorsed candidate is actually being attacked from his political right. Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who former President Trump endorsed last June, is in a battle with former Trump-appointed US ambassador to the United Nations, Kelly Craft, who so far has a 10:1 spending advantage in attempting to paint him as less conservative than she.

Also in the race are State Auditor Mike Harmon, Kentucky Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles, and eight minor candidates.

Key conservatives are split. While Trump and certain pro-life leaders are backing Cameron, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), and Rep. James Comer (R-KY) have all endorsed Craft.

Polling has been sparse. The latest released data came in April from Emerson College (April 10-11; 900 likely 2023 Kentucky election voters) and posted AG Cameron to a 30-24 percent advantage over Craft, with Commissioner Quarles at 15 percent. No other candidate reached seven percent.

Today’s winner will challenge Gov. Andy Beshear (D) in the general election. Beshear has strong favorability ratings and even though the Kentucky electorate votes Republican in federal races, defeating the incumbent Democratic governor will be no easy task.

In fact, the only published poll that tests the Republicans against Gov. Beshear was released back in January from Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy. Within the GOP field, Cameron paired best with the governor, but even he was down 49-40 percent in an early ballot test. Craft, though before her heavy spending raised her name identification, trailed Gov. Beshear by a my daunting 57-32 percent.

The Kentucky Secretary of State has typically performed as one of the fastest reporting election offices in the country. Therefore, today’s results should be released early in the evening.

The Mayoral Elections

Several polls of the Philadelphia Democratic mayoral primary are showing a virtual dead heat among at least four of the competitors, meaning today’s result will be very close and could well venture into political overtime.

The top candidates are former Philadelphia City Councilmembers Helen Gym, Cherelle Parker, and Alan Domb, ex-City Controller Rebecca Rhynhart and businessman Jeff Brown. It clearly appears the Democratic nomination is within reach of each of the aforementioned.

The winner will face former City Councilman David Oh, who is unopposed for the Republican nomination. He will automatically move into the November general election and could well become a viable contender considee previous citywide elections.

General election runoffs are being held in Jacksonville, Fla. and Colorado Springs, Colorado. Both seats are open and currently Republican held. Of the 100 US largest cities in terms of population, Republicans hold only 26 mayor’s offices.

In Jacksonville, Mayor Lenny Curry (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Republicans nominated Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce CEO Daniel Davis, while Democrats chose former local television news anchor Donna Deegan. Republicans turned out in larger numbers during the March primary, and while Deegan finished first, the total Republican vote exceeded the Democratic aggregate.

Turning to Colorado Springs, Mayor John Suthers (R) is also ineligible to seek a third term. The first-place finisher in the early April 12-candidate non-partisan primary election was Yemi Mobolade, a Nigerian immigrant who is a vice president at the Colorado Springs Chamber & Economic Development Corporation. Opposing him is former Colorado Secretary of State Wayne Williams who placed second in the April primary.

Local elections such as these will take place in 29 cities during the latter part of this year.

Trump Continues to Lead in Republican Primary Polls; Rep. Santos Charged; New Candidate in VA-7;
A Very Tight Philly Mayoral Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 11, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump

Morning Consult Poll: Trump Opens Biggest Lead — Though former President Donald Trump may not be doing well in the courts, he continues to build a strong lead in Republican primary polls. The Morning Consult tracking survey (May 5-7; 3,574 US registered voters who identify or lead Republican; online) finds Trump hitting the 60 percent mark against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and the second-tier candidates. The former US chief executive holds a 60-19 percent margin over DeSantis. Former Vice President Mike Pence and, surprisingly, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy lead the second-tier group with five percent support each.

House

NY-3: Rep. Santos Charged — Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island) was charged with federal crimes under a sealed indictment. A 13-count indictment was unsealed Wednesday in the United States District Court for the Eastern District of New York charging Santos with seven counts of wire fraud, three counts of money laundering, one count of theft of public funds, and two counts of making materially false statements to the House of Representatives. It is presumed that Rep. Santos will not resign his seat while he fights the charges. Even before the indictment, four Democrats and two Republicans had already announced their 2024 candidacies. We can expect more potential candidates to soon come forward.

VA-7: Rep. Spanberger Draws Second Opponent — Businessman Bill Moher became the second Republican to announce his congressional candidacy opposite three-term Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen). Previously in the race was Army veteran Shaliek Tarpley (R). Unless the Republicans find a top-tier 2024 candidate, it is unlikely the party will be able to unseat Rep. Spanberger in the post-redistricting seat where she will have had the opportunity of representing for a full term by the time of the next election. Rep. Spanberger was re-elected in 2022 with a 52-48 percent margin in a campaign where combined campaign spending exceeded $12 million not counting independent expenditures.

Cities

Philadelphia Mayor: Polling Shows Pre-Primary Dead Heat — A new Data for Progress survey (April 26-29; 560 Philadelphia likely Democratic mayoral primary voters; online & text) finds a tie at the top of the Democratic primary candidate field as the contenders head toward next Tuesday’s primary election day. The poll’s sponsor, former Philadelphia City Councilwoman Helen Gym and ex-City Controller Rebecca Rhynhart were tied with a support figure of 21 percent. Close behind is former City Councilwoman Cherelle Parker with 19 percent. Ex-Councilman Alan Domb, businessman Jeff Brown, and state Rep. Amen Brown followed with 13, 9, and 2 percent backing, respectively. Current Mayor Jim Kenney is term limited and cannot run.

Previously, a Survey USA poll (April 21-23; 1,013 Philadelphia likely mayoral Democratic primary voters; online) arrived at a similar conclusion, but saw an 18-17-15-14 percent split featuring Rhynhart, Parker, Gym, and Domb consecutively within the polling margin of error. It appears the Democratic nomination is within reach of several candidates as we move into the final week of campaigning. The winner will face former City Councilman David Oh who is unopposed for the Republican nomination. He will automatically move into the November general election.

Elections: Johnson Wins in Chicago, Democrat Wins Crucial Wisconsin Judicial Race; Trump Gets Post-Indictment Bounce; House News

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 5, 2023

Election Results

Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson (D) will succeed Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot (D).

Chicago Mayor: Johnson Wins Close Election — Former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas was attempting to complete a worst-to-first showing from his last place finish in the 2019 Chicago mayor’s race, but fell just under three percentage points of accomplishing his goal. The winner, with 51.4 percent of the runoff vote, is Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson (D), who will now succeed Mayor Lori Lightfoot (D) after her defeat in the initial round of voting.

Johnson’s combined support from the Chicago Teachers Union and the black and Hispanic communities, together of which accounts for approximately 60 percent of the city’s population, led to his victory. Commissioner Johnson is himself a former teacher and union organizer.

Wisconsin Supreme Court: Democrat Wins — Milwaukee County Circuit Court Judge Janet Prostasiewicz won a rather easy 55-45 percent victory last night in what many believe was a crucial election. The victory now gives the Democrats the majority on the state Supreme Court for the first time in 15 years. Abortion, again, was a major topic in the race with Prostasiewicz positioning her opponent, former defeated Supreme Court Judge Dan Kelly, as an extremist. Kelly raised little money for the race, but had major outside support. Prostasiewicz and the Democrats had a major resource advantage, and ran the campaign as if it were closer to a partisan congressional race than a judicial battle.

It is probable that we will now see a redistricting lawsuit filed and the state’s 6R-2D map overturned. Prostasiewicz indicated during the campaign that she thought the congressional map was “unfair.”

It appears Republicans won a state Senate special election that would give them a Super Majority within the body. This would allow them to override many of Democratic Gov. Tony Evers’ potential vetoes. With 99 percent of the vote counted, Republican Dan Knodl held 50.4 percent of the vote.

President

State Polling: Trump’s Indictment Bounce — Though now under indictment, former President Donald Trump sees his polling numbers continue to improve, this time in three states. His lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and others, has grown according to new surveys from Massachusetts and New Hampshire, while his deficit has closed in the Sunshine State.

Opinion Dynamics, polling for the Boston Herald newspaper (released April 3; 475 likely Massachusetts Republican primary voters) sees Trump’s Massachusetts lead expand to 45-21-9-3 percent over Gov. DeSantis, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and ex-Vice President Mike Pence. In a two-way test, Trump led DeSantis, 46-32 percent.

In New Hampshire, St. Anselm’s College conducted one of their regular Granite State surveys (March 28-30; 1,320 registered New Hampshire voters; live interview via cellphone). Here, Trump’s advantage is 42-29 percent, with New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu pulling 14 percent.

The Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Florida survey (March 27-30; 625 registered Florida voters with a 507 over-sample of Republican voters for the GOP primary questions; live interview) sees DeSantis, with a strong GOP approval rating of 87:7 percent favorable to unfavorable, leading former President Trump 44-39 percent before the governor’s home state electorate.

House

MI-10: New Democrat Comes Forth — Last November freshman Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) won a very tight 49-48 percent election victory over former judge and prosecuting attorney Carl Marlinga (D). He has now already drawn two opponents even though Marlinga is expected to return to seek a re-match.

Earlier in the week, former state representative candidate Diane Young (D) announced her congressional candidacy. Previously, attorney and 2022 congressional nominee against Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Bruce), Brian Jaye (D), declared his candidacy in the adjoining 10th CD. It is already clear that regardless of how many Democrats come forward to attempt to challenge Rep. James, the 2024 Democratic nominee will almost assuredly again be Marlinga. He will once more give Rep. James a very competitive battle in the general election.

NY-3: Rep. Santos Has Primary Challenge — It is a foregone conclusion that embattled freshman New York Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island) is the most vulnerable House member for the coming 2024 election. While two Democrats have previously announced their candidacies, the first Republican challenger stepped forward yesterday.

Afghan War veteran and former JP Morgan Vice President Kellen Curry declared himself a candidate for the Republican nomination. It is expected that we will see a crowded Republican primary form long before the June 2024 New York primary. Defeating Rep. Santos in the primary may be the only way the GOP has of potentially salvaging the seat.

Kelly & Kelly for Senate; Challenger to NJ Rep. Pascrell, 87, May Emerge; Chicago Mayoral Battle Continues; Two in Florida Runoff Battle

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 28, 2023

Senate

Scott (left) and twin brother, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly

Texas: Democrats Searching for Candidate — Just like the Wisconsin Republicans in their quest to find a standard bearer to challenge Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) next year, the Lone Star State Democrats are continuing their search for a strong challenger to oppose Sen. Ted Cruz (R). Still not successfully recruiting either Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) or former HUD Secretary and ex-San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, the Democrats are now floating the idea of astronaut Scott Kelly, the twin brother of Arizona senator and former astronaut Mark Kelly (D).

Though Scott Kelly, who for a time was the world record holder for being in space for the longest duration (340 days), has not made any confirming statement that he is taking the same political path as his brother, if the Democratic leadership were to convince him to run, that would make an interesting race.

House

NJ-9: Potential Challenge for Rep. Pascrell — In mid March, we reported that 14-term New Jersey Congressman Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) announced that he would seek re-election next year at age 87. He may not have a free ride, however. Paterson Mayor Andre Sayegh is reportedly weighing his chances of challenging Rep. Pascrell in the 2024 Democratic primary.

Prior to being elected to Congress for the first time in 1996, Pascrell was simultaneously the mayor of Paterson and a state assemblyman. In 2012, when New Jersey lost a seat in national reapportionment, Rep. Pascrell and then Rep. Steve Rothman (D) were paired in the new 9th District. Initially, Rep. Pascrell was considered the underdog in the incumbent vs. incumbent Democratic primary, but the elder congressman would prevail in the end with a landslide 62-38 percent victory. Rep. Pascrell has not been seriously challenged since.

Mayor

Chicago: Vallas and Johnson Continue to Battle — The Chicago municipal contest, where voters have already defeated Mayor Lori Lightfoot, continues to brandish polling showing a very tight runoff contest between former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas and Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson. Several published polls disagree as to who is leading whom in the race. The latest Victory Research survey (March 20-23; 806 Chicago likely runoff voters) sees Vallas leading 46-44 percent. IZQ Strategies (March 15-16; 680 likely Chicago runoff voters) arrives at the same 46-44 percent ballot test result, but they find Commissioner Johnson holding the slight edge.

Vallas has recently been able to cross racial lines by attracting endorsements from African American former officeholders Jesse White, who served six terms as the Illinois Secretary of State, and ex-Congressman Bobby Rush, who was in office for 30 years. Crime is a big issue in the contest and could be the defining one. The runoff is scheduled for April 4.

Jacksonville: Two Advance — The Jacksonville mayoral primary was held during the week, and Democrat Donna Deegan topped the field of candidates with 39 percent of the vote. Daniel Davis (R), the local Chamber of Commerce CEO, was second with 25 percent. Since neither candidate received majority support, the two will advance to a May 16 runoff election. Combined, Republican candidates received 51 percent of the vote as compared to the combined Democratic percentage of 48. Republican incumbent Lenny Curry is ineligible to seek a third term.

Familiar Challenger in CA-41;
Special Election RI-1 Candidates Grow, Skepticism in WI-3 Race;
New Orleans Recall Effort Fails

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 24, 2023

House

California Lake Elsinore City Councilman Tim Sheridan (D)

CA-41: Rep. Calvert Draws Familiar Challenger — Lake Elsinore City Councilman Tim Sheridan (D), who challenged Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) twice in the pre-redistricting and much more Republican 42nd District, announced this week that he will return to again run for the House in 2024.

In November, Rep. Calvert survived his second closest re-election effort, a 52-48 percent win over former federal prosecutor Will Rollins (D) in the new 41st District that is fully contained within Riverside County. We could see action in the all-party jungle primary because Rollins is also considering waging a return re-match with the 16-term incumbent.

RI-1: Special Election Candidate Count Expands to Six — As we reported yesterday, the RI-1 special election will be scheduled when Rhode Island Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence) resigns from the House on June 1. This week, another four individuals announced their special Democratic primary candidacies already bringing the field’s total number to six.

Those previously declaring are Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos (D) and state Sen. Sandra Cano (D-Pawtucket). The latest to enter are state Rep. Nathan Biah (D-Providence), corporate Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) consultant Nick Autiello, financial consultant Allen Waters, and bus driver Mickeda Barnes. Also as mentioned yesterday, the special election will effectively be decided in the Democratic primary from a seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+32.

WI-3: Potential Challenger Candidates Skeptical — The 3rd District of Wisconsin occupies the state’s southwestern region and while often voting Republican for president, the electorate returned Democratic Rep. Ron Kind (D-La Crosse) to office 13 consecutive times. Kind retired in 2022, and the Democratic leadership basically conceded the seat to Republican Derrick Van Orden in that the national party spent no money to protect a seat their member held for 26 consecutive years. In the end, Van Orden did win, but his victory margin fell far below predictions in defeating state Sen. Brad Pfaff (D-La Crosse) 52-48 percent.

It appears that Pfaff and two other former congressional candidates, La Crosse City Councilman Mark Neumann and small business owner Rebecca Cooke, are considering entering the 2024 congressional race. All, however, are saying they won’t run unless they are assured of national outside party support.

Mayor

New Orleans: Recall Effort Fails — The move to force a recall vote against Crescent City Mayor LaToya Cantrell (D) came to an abrupt end at the petition signature deadline. The recall organization fell woefully short of recruiting the 45,000 registered voter signatures necessary to force a confirmation election. The Cantrell opposition group was only able to qualify approximately 27,000 signatures, or just 60 percent of the required number. The next regular mayoral election is scheduled for 2025.

Hogan Won’t Run for President; RFK Jr. May Soon Announce; No Senate Run for Nevada’s Amodei; OR-6 Candidate Redux; New Orleans’ Mayoral Recall

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 6, 2023

President

Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R)

Gov. Larry Hogan: Won’t Run for President — Over the weekend, former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan said he would not join the Republican presidential field. Hogan explaining his decision said, “I have long said that I care more about ensuring a future for the Republican Party than securing my own future in the Republican Party.”

Hogan had previously expressed his analysis that a crowded Republican field would only help Donald Trump win renomination, something the former Free State governor wants to see avoided. He also indicated his belief that with Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis running far ahead of the lesser-known candidates, it doesn’t leave the lower tier contenders much of an opportunity to compete for the win.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. May Soon Announce Presidential Campaign — Robert F. Kennedy Jr., son of the late senator and attorney general, Robert F. Kennedy, is moving closer to announcing a presidential campaign. It appears he will run in the Democratic primary on an anti-vaccination platform. Kennedy became a national activist opposing mandatory vaccinations during the Covid shutdown.

It is possible that he could win the New Hampshire primary. President Biden may not enter the Granite State nomination contest if the NH leadership doesn’t recognize the new Democratic National Committee schedule that takes New Hampshire out of their traditional first-in-the-nation voting position. Therefore, it is quite possible that the primary race could come down to a contest between Kennedy and author Marianne Williamson, who formally announced her own candidacy on Saturday.

Senate

Nevada: Rep. Amodei Won’t Run for Senate — Nevada’s lone Republican Congressman, Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Carson City), said on Friday that he will not challenge Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) next year. The Nevada race should be one of the most competitive campaigns in the country, just as it was in 2022. In that election, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) slipped past GOP challenger Adam Laxalt by only a 7,928-vote margin (48.8 – 48.0 percent), which was the closest raw vote spread of all ‘22 Senate campaigns.

At this point, Republicans have no announced candidate, but that will soon change. Along with Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia, the Nevada race will eventually become one of the Republicans’ 2024 top-tier challenge races. Disabled Iraq War veteran and 2022 Senate candidate Sam Brown is considering running again. No one else has so far made a move to enter the Senate race including the state’s two down ballot constitutional officers, Lt. Gov. Stavros Anthony and state Controller Andy Matthews. Look for this race to become the top candidate recruitment target for the national Republican leadership.

House

OR-6: 2022 Candidate Will Try Again — Dundee Mayor David Russ (R) announced on Friday that he will return to again run for Congress in 2024. In the previous election, Russ placed sixth in a field of seven Republican candidates with only 3.8 percent of the vote, more than 30 percentage points behind the GOP nominee, Mike Erickson. Erickson would hold then-state Rep. Andrea Salinas (D-Tigard) to a 50-48 percent victory margin in the 6th District’s first ever congressional race. Due to population growth, Oregon was awarded a new seat in the 2020 national reapportionment formula.

The 6th will again yield a competitive race, but chances will likely prove that the Republicans’ best chance to win this district occurred in the last election. Rep. Salinas will begin as the favorite to hold the seat in the ’24 cycle.

Cities

New Orleans: Mayoral Recall Drive Changes — The signature petition drive to qualify a recall effort against New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell (D) is continuing toward a March 22 deadline. Secretary of State Kyle Ardoin has set 45,000 valid registered voter signatures as the number necessary to force a recall vote.

Mayor Cantrell was elected in 2017 and was easily re-elected in 2021. The NoLaToya campaign is centered upon the rising murder and crime rate in the city, along with a decline in local services. It remains to be seen if the committee can gather the necessary number of petition signatures in order to schedule a recall election.

Lightfoot Loses in Chicago

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 1, 2023

Mayoral Race: Lightfoot Loses in Chicago — The Chicago non-partisan mayoral primary is unofficially complete and as recent polling suggested was a possible outcome, incumbent Mayor Lori Lightfoot (D) fell in defeat last night without even qualifying for the secondary runoff election.

Chicago Public Schools former CEO Paul Vallas and Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson will advance to the April 4 election, and that vote will decide who becomes the new mayor. Vallas secured first place with 172,093 votes, translating into 33.9 percent preference. Commissioner Johnson scored 103,387 votes, or 20.3 percent.

Mayor Lightfoot finished a poor third in the field of nine candidates. She only recorded 86,952 votes for just 17.1 percent support. To put this number in perspective, almost 83 percent of the people voting chose a candidate other than the incumbent, an incredibly poor performance for any office holder.

In the 2019 election, Lightfoot secured 97,667 votes, or 10,715 more votes than she received last night. In the runoff from four years ago, Lightfoot was subsequently a landslide 74 percent winner over then-Cook County Commission President Toni Preckwinkle.

Turnout from the last two primaries was similar. At this point, more than 509,556 votes have been recorded, but this will not be the final total. In 2019, a total of 518,194 ballots were cast in the primary election.

US Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago), who began as the campaign’s polling leader, finished fourth with 70,006 votes and 13.7 percent. He returns to the House to finish the new term he won last November.

Conversely, Vallas greatly improved his standing since the 2019 mayoral election. In fact, he completed a worst to first turnaround, since he finished dead last four years ago within a different field of nine candidates. In that year, Vallas managed to only garner 30,236 votes or just 5.4 percent. Therefore, at this point with post-election reception ballots still to count, he will likely improve his standing by more than six times his previous vote total.

It appears crime was the driving issue; that explains both Vallas’ rise to the top, since he is the most ardent supporter of tough penalties for law breakers, and Lightfoot’s fall from political grace, largely due to her image of being soft on criminals.

Since she took office, according to Chicago Police Department crime statistics, murder had increased 59 percent, but that number pales in comparison to motor vehicle theft, which rose 270 percent during the same period. While theft and robbery increased 31 and 27 percent, respectively, during her tenure, burglary actually decreased 18 percent. Sexual crimes also decreased in the four-year period, by two percentage points.

Though a Democrat, Vallas was clearly the most conservative candidate in the non-partisan primary race and his runoff campaign against the more progressive Commissioner Johnson promises to be an interesting one.

Vallas will likely continue making the election a referendum on the crime and safety issue. Since Commissioner Johnson is known to favor less strict protocols for combating crime, a contrasting campaign on this issue will be Vallas’ clear strategic goal.

Johnson will attack the former schools CEO over his pro-life position, and attempt to make the election about a broad-based group of issues, thus allowing him to strike an overall ideological contrast.

Challenger Emerges in Texas;
Top Dem Declines to Run in Louisiana;
SCOTUS Redistricting Action in NC; Rep. Jackson Lee to Run for Mayor?

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 14, 2023

House

Army veteran Kyle Sinclair (R)

TX-28: New Rep. Cuellar (D) Challenger Emerges — Army veteran Kyle Sinclair (R), who lost 68-32 percent against Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) in Texas’ 20th District last November, announced he is moving to the 28th District to challenge veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo). The congressman’s most serious vulnerability is in the Democratic primary; however, as illustrated in his 2022 victorious race for renomination decided in a May runoff by just 311 votes. We can expect to see more political action next year in this CD that stretches from San Antonio to the Mexican border.

Governor

Louisiana: Dem Chair Won’t Run — Though candidate filing for the Louisiana governor’s race doesn’t close until Aug. 10, the open-race field is already winnowing. At the end of last week, Louisiana Democratic Party chair Kate Bernhardt announced that she will not become a gubernatorial candidate after considering the possibility of entering. The top candidates appear to be Attorney General Jeff Landry (R), state Treasurer John Schroder (R), and state Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson (D). Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. The state’s jungle primary is Oct. 14, 2023, with a runoff on Nov. 18 if no contender receives majority support in the first election.

States

North Carolina: State Supremes Schedule Action — The North Carolina state Supreme Court is sending clear signals to the US Supreme Court over the state’s election and redistricting law challenges. Before departing at the end of their term in January, the former NC Supreme Court panel, with a 4D-3R majority, declared the state Senate map a partisan gerrymander and overturned the NC voter identification law. On Friday, the new 5R-2D court announced it will hear arguments to overturn those rulings in the middle of March.

The move is significant since SCOTUS is considering the North Carolina political gerrymandering case and will rule before July 1. The state court, however, potentially taking action on similar cases before the US Supreme Court ultimately decides, could allow the latter panel simply to yield to the state’s decisions. At the end of the process and regardless of which court sets the final parameters, it is probable that we will see a complete redistricting of the North Carolina political boundaries before the 2024 election.

Cities

Houston: Rep. Jackson Lee Considering Mayor’s Race — Reports are emanating from Houston that veteran US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) is conducting citywide polling to determine her chances in the open mayor’s race scheduled for November of this year. Incumbent Sylvester Turner (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

At this point the leading contender appears to be state Sen. John Whitmire (D), who was first elected to the legislature in 1972. He served 10 years in the state House of Representatives before moving to the state Senate in 1982. He is Texas’ longest-serving state senator.

If no candidate receives majority support on Nov. 7, a runoff between the top two finishers will be scheduled. The mayor’s race is non-partisan in that candidates’ party affiliations are not listed on the ballot. Other major candidates are City Councilman Robert Gallegos, former city councilwoman and 2020 US Senate candidate Amanda Edwards, and Houston Metro Board Member Chris Hollins.

Zeldin’s Contemplation; Dems Positioning for Next Race in NY; Five Competitive Candidates in Chicago Mayoral Race; McDaniel Re-Elected as RNC Chair

By Jim Ellis — Jan. 31, 2023

Senate

Former NY Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley)

New York: Ex-Rep. Zeldin’s Contemplation — Former Long Island US Congressman Lee Zeldin (R), who held Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) to a highly competitive 53-47 percent statewide re-election victory in November, has seen his name being bandied about for many potential positions. Some Republican leaders want him to challenge New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) next year, which would likely be a political suicide run in a presidential year from one of the Democrats’ strongest states, while others are talking up the possibility of him running for Suffolk County Executive.

This latter election will occur later this year and is an open race since Democratic incumbent Steve Bellone is ineligible to run for a third term. Considering Zeldin carried his home county by a 59-41 percent margin in the governor’s race and represented Suffolk in Congress for eight years, he would clearly be the Republicans’ strongest candidate for such a position. At this point, Zeldin has been quiet about what future political plans, if any, he may be contemplating.

House

NY-3: Dems Positioning for Next Race — While the fate of beleaguered freshman US Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island) continues as a daily media story, Democrats are beginning to position themselves for what could be a special election if Santos is eventually forced to resign or run in next cycle’s regular election. Some local Democratic leaders are reportedly attempting to convince former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D), to make a political comeback for his former position.

Suozzi left the House last year to make a head-scratching run for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, a race he had scarcely little potential to win. So far, the former congressman has been non-committal about a future District 3 race. On the other hand, the man who Rep. Santos defeated in November, George Zimmerman (D), is preparing for another run. Nassau County Legislator Josh Lafazan (D), who lost the congressional nomination to Zimmerman in 2022, has already announced that he will run for the seat in the next election.

Cities

Chicago: Poll Shows Five Competitive Candidates — There has been a lot of attention paid to the Chicago mayoral race because the incumbent is in trouble and the election is fast approaching, now less than a month away on Feb. 28.

A new Victory Research survey (Jan. 23-25; 806 likely Chicago voters; live interview) finds former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas and current Mayor Lori Lightfoot in a virtual tie at 19 percent support apiece. Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago) is a close third with 17 percent, while Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson, and businessman Willie Wilson follow with 15 and 12 percent, respectively. This shows that two of these candidates will head to a runoff election on April 4, but it remains unclear as to which pair will advance.

Political Parties

Republican National Committee: Ronna McDaniel Re-Elected — On Friday, RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel was easily re-elected to her position, capturing 66 percent support among the 168 voting members. Former President Donald Trump originally appointed McDaniel and continued to support her through this election. California National Committeewoman Harmeet Dhillon, who criticized McDaniel for the party losing touch with the grassroots and drew support from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, finished a distant second with 53 votes. My Pillow company founder Mike Lindell received four votes. McDaniel will now serve through the 2024 presidential election.

Kari Lake Considering Senate Run; State Senator Declares for Porter’s Seat; Louisiana Rep. Graves Poised to Enter Gov Race; Two Dem Reps Oppose Mayor Lightfoot in Chicago

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Jan. 20, 2023

Senate

Former news anchor and candidate for governor, Kari Lake (R), is considering Senate run.

Arizona: Kari Lake (R) Considering Senate — Media reports from Arizona suggest that defeated gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, a former multi-decade Phoenix news anchor, is considering entering the 2024 US Senate contest. This campaign will be unique since it features the incumbent, Kyrsten Sinema, originally elected as a Democrat running as an Independent.

Democrats could be headed for a tough primary battle between Reps. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) and Greg Stanton (D-Phoenix). The latter man also served six years as Phoenix’s mayor before being elected to the House. Other potential Republican candidates include Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb and state Treasurer Kimberly Yee. This race will prove interesting since both eventual major party nominees and Sen. Sinema all would have legitimate victory scenarios in a tight three-way general election campaign.

House

CA-47: State Senator Declares for Porter’s Seat — The whirlwind of California political activities in early anticipation of the 2024 election continues. With Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) already declaring for the US Senate and three others announcing for Rep. Adam Schiff’s (D-Burbank) House seat even though he has yet to say he’s running for the Senate, we now see a state legislator, Sen. David Min (D-Irvine), making a move.

Min announced his intention to compete for Rep. Porter’s open seat and will have the congresswoman’s endorsement. Since California state Senate seats are larger than congressional districts, Min’s overlay into the current 47th CD from his 37th District state Senate seat is substantial and includes the region’s anchor city of Irvine.

Governor

Louisiana: GOP Rep. Graves Poised to Enter ’23 Gov Race — It is believed that US Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge), who was just elected to a fifth term in the House, will imminently announce his 2023 gubernatorial candidacy. With both Sen. John Kennedy (R) and Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser (R) deciding not to run for governor and incumbent John Bel Edwards (D) ineligible to seek a third term, the race becomes wide open.

The early leader appears to be attorney general and former Congressman Jeff Landry (R), but with the candidate filing deadline set for Aug. 10 and the initial primary scheduled for Oct. 14, this race still has months to develop. Since this is an odd-year election, Rep. Graves would not have to risk his House seat in order to enter the statewide contest.

North Carolina: AG Josh Stein (D) Declares for Governor — Two-term state Attorney General Josh Stein (D), who barely won re-election in 2020 with a scant 50.1 – 49.9 percent majority, announced his bid for governor Wednesday. Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term in 2024, which will lead to another tight North Carolina open statewide campaign. Stein, who is the early favorite to win the Democratic nomination, will probably face Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who looks to have the inside track toward becoming the GOP standard bearer. We can expect another close statewide election in this highly competitive political state.

State & Local

Chicago: Two Dem Reps Oppose Mayor Lightfoot — Embattled first-term Mayor Lori Lightfoot continues to see support drift away. At an event the Chicago Teachers Union sponsored to declare its support of Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson for mayor, US Reps. Jonathan Jackson (D-Chicago) and Delia Ramirez (D-Chicago) also announced their endorsement of the county official. Rep. Jackson criticized Mayor Lightfoot for not keeping her 2019 campaign promises.

The congressional member endorsements were a bit surprising since polling suggests that Mayor Lightfoot’s top competitor is their colleague in the House of Representatives, Congressman Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago). The mayoral election is Feb. 28. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two finishers will advance to an April 4 runoff election.