Category Archives: House

Pennsylvania’s Rep. Evans to Retire; Rep. Johnson Enters Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 3, 2025

After a long period of stability regarding House open seats, three new member announcements occurred just this week.

We covered Rep. Don Bacon’s (R-NE) retirement decision yesterday, and now we see Rep. Dwight Evans (D-PA) also headed for retirement and South Dakota at-large Rep. Dusty Johnson (R) declaring his candidacy for Governor.

PA-3

Five-term Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia)

After battling the after-effects from a stroke in 2024 that kept him from participating in congressional action for better than half a year, five-term Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia) announced that he will retire at the end of the current Congress. Evans was first elected to his federal post in 2016 after serving 36 years in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives.

Pennsylvania’s 3rd District is fully contained in Philadelphia County and splits Philadelphia city with Rep. Brendan Boyle’s (D) 2nd District. PA-3 is heavily Democratic, so Rep. Evans’ successor will be decided in the 2026 Democratic primary.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the district’s partisan lean is 90.3D – 8.3R, obviously making it the safest Democratic district in the state. Not surprisingly, President Trump ran poorly here, losing to Kamala Harris in 2024 with an 88-11 percentage spread. In 2020, the gap was even larger as President Biden carried the district with a 90-9 percent margin.

The district is 51 percent Black, making it the only voting age population majority minority congressional seat in Pennsylvania. With a 3rd District voter registration of 77.8% Democratic and 10.0 percent Republican, a crowded Dem primary is expected and will decide which individual succeeds Rep. Evans. Next year’s Keystone State primary is scheduled for May 19.

SD-AL

On Monday, four-term at-large South Dakota Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) announced that he will enter the 2026 Governor’s race next year, a move that had been expected. In fact, Johnson’s move was so widely telegraphed that state Attorney General Marty Jackley (R) declared he would run to succeed the Congressman even before the official gubernatorial campaign announcement occurred.

The South Dakota Republican primary will be interesting in that Rep. Johnson is likely headed for a match against the now-sitting Republican Governor, Larry Rhoden. Once then-Gov. Kristi Noem resigned to become US Homeland Security Secretary, Rhoden, then the state’s Lieutenant Governor, ascended into the state’s chief executive position.

While he has not yet formally announced if he will run for Governor, it is expected that Rhoden will soon declare his official candidacy. Also in the race is state House Speaker Jon Hansen (R-Dell Rapids) and wealthy conservative businessman Toby Doeden.

The South Dakota Republican primary, scheduled for June 2 next year, will very likely decide the state’s next Governor. The last time Democrats claimed the Mt. Rushmore State Governorship was in the 1974 election.

Additionally, South Dakota is a runoff state. If no primary candidate receives at least 35 percent of the vote, a secondary election will be held. Next year, the runoff date, if necessary, will be July 28.

Johnson was first elected to the House in 2018 after serving as former Gov. Dennis Daugaard’s chief of staff. His first elected office, attained at age 28, was for a seat on the South Dakota Public Utilities Commission.

Considering the latest developments, the House open seat count now moves to 19, with 10 Democratic and 9 Republican seats in the category.

Three of the opens, because of Reps. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), Sylvester Turner (D-TX), and Gerry Connolly (D-VA) passing away, will be filled in special elections later this year. Replacements for the remaining 16 seats will be decided during the regular election cycle.

Tennessee Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) says he will resign from the House once the “One Big Beautiful Bill” is enacted. When he leaves Congress, the open seat count will rise to 20.

In those 16 regular election open seats, only three are coming because the incumbent is retiring from elective politics. Seven members are running for US Senate and six, like Rep. Johnson, are competing in their state’s respective gubernatorial election.

NE-2: Rep. Don Bacon to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 2, 2025

House

Five-term Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha)

Five-term Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) announced that he will not seek re-election in 2026, a development that many political observers expected.

At his media event, according to Fox News’s reporting, Rep. Bacon said, “After 30 years in the Air Force and 10 years in Congress, it’s time to spend my future with the love of my life, our four kids, and our wonderful grandchildren. Thank you, Nebraska!”

The Cornhusker State’s 2nd District has attracted a great deal of attention in the last two presidential election years. Like Maine, Nebraska apportions its electoral votes meaning that each congressional district – the state has three – casts its own vote as opposed to the winner-take-all process that the other 48 states utilize.

In both 2020 and 2024, NE-2 voted for the Democratic nominee against President Trump, thus awarding one of Nebraska’s five electoral votes to the opposite party’s national candidate. Naturally, this history suggests the open 2nd District could become the House Democrats’ top national conversion target in the 2026 election.

In the 2024 election, Kamala Harris topped President Trump by 14,636 votes in the 2nd District, but Rep. Bacon rebounded from the Republican top of the ticket loss to win re-election with a 5,829 vote spread. Four years earlier in the 2020 election, President Biden captured the 2nd District with a 22,091-vote margin, yet Rep. Bacon again rebounded to win re-election, this time by almost reversing the presidential deficit. He defeated Democrat Kara Eastman with a 15,365-vote spread.

The 2nd District is comprised of Douglas (Omaha) and Saunders counties along with approximately 25 percent of Sarpy County. Douglas County, however, is becoming more Democratic as further evidenced when John Ewing Jr. (D) ousted three-term Omaha Mayor Jean Stothert (R) earlier this year.

For a different Republican to keep the 2nd District, he or she will have to emulate Rep. Bacon’s totals in Douglas County to secure victory. No Republican has recently carried Douglas, but the new GOP nominee will have to keep the deficit margin within the district’s largest county to the same level as did Rep. Bacon.

For example, in the 2024 election, President Trump lost the county by 27,814 votes, Sen. Deb Fischer (R) suffered a much larger Douglas County defeat (46,101 votes), and even Senator and former Gov. Pete Ricketts trailed in the county by 14,530 ballots while scoring a strong 63-37 percent victory statewide. In the 2022 election, Gov. Jim Pillen (R) also lost the county, down 9,492 votes yet won the statewide tally with a 59-36 percent margin.

In 2024, Rep. Bacon found himself down 10,314 votes in Douglas County, 4,692 in 2022, and 1,597 in 2020 yet repeatedly won the 2nd CD. Therefore, for the next Republican nominee to hold the seat, the vote deficit level coming from Douglas County must be aligned with Rep. Bacon’s performance and no other Republican candidate.

In the past two elections, then-state Sen. Tony Vargas (D-Omaha) unsuccessfully challenged Rep. Bacon. It was clear after him losing again in 2024, especially with Harris carrying the seat in the same vote, that the Democratic leadership would move to a new candidate in 2026.

At this point, and the list will now likely grow, four Democrats have announced their candidacies, led by state Sen. John J. Cavanaugh, IV (D-Omaha), whose father, John J. Cavanaugh III, (D) held the congressional seat for two terms during the 1977-81 period. The others are attorney John Argyrakis, surgeon Mark Johnston, and political consultant Denise Powell.

On the Republican side, two names are surfacing early as potential candidates, those of Douglas County Sheriff Aaron Hanson and former state Sen. Brett Lindstrom.

The 2nd District race will again be expensive. Counting all candidate and external spending in 2024, an aggregate $34 million-plus was spent. In an open seat contest, expect that total expenditure figure to grow.

Rep. Bacon’s announcement means there are 17 (8R; 9D) open US House seats headed into the next election, but his is only the second retirement. Three members have passed away and the other 12 are leaving the House to run for another office.

Turning to the Senate, two-term Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) announcing his retirement over the weekend means seven seats will be open in the 2026 election. In that body only one member, Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), is leaving to run for another office. The rest are retiring from politics.

Review: House Open Seats

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 1, 2025

House

The next House election cycle will again conclude with few seats changing hands, and one party or the other controlling the chamber in 2027 with only a small margin.

Throughout the past decade and into the first two elections of the current decennium, we have seen an inordinately large number of open US House seats in each individual election cycle, usually between 48 and 63 seats; but not so for 2026.

To date, there are only 16 open House seats for the next election, and three of those are due to the incumbent member passing away. Therefore, the AZ-7 (Raul Grijalva), TX-18 (Sylvester Turner), and VA-11 (Gerry Connally) seats will be filled later this year in special elections.

Regarding the 13 announced open seats for the regular 2026 election (7R; 6D), only one, IL-9 (Rep. Jan Schakowsky-D), derives from a true retirement. The other dozen incumbents will leave the House to seek another elective office.

While the open seat number is sure to grow as candidate filing deadlines approach (beginning in December), we are still unlikely to see a plethora of House campaigns without an incumbent running in political prime time next year.

Therefore, the open count provides a further clue toward seeing a House election cycle that will again conclude with few seats changing hands, and one party or the other controlling the chamber in 2027 with only a small margin.

At this point, we see an additional five members who are soon to announce bids for other offices:

MI-4: Michigan Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland), against the wishes of the national and state Republican Party leadership, looks to soon announce that he will challenge former Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers for the open Republican US Senate nomination.

Huizenga would begin a Senate campaign in an underdog position for the primary, and his open southwestern Michigan congressional seat would become hotly contested in the general election.

NJ-11: Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) is the Democratic gubernatorial nominee for the 2025 New Jersey statewide election. If she wins, and the Congresswoman is rated as an early favorite for the November vote, her 11th CD will go to a 2026 special election. Should she lose the Governor’s race, Rep. Sherrill would be eligible to return and seek re-election.

NY-21: Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), who was nominated as US Ambassador to the United Nations only to see her appointment pulled back in fear of the GOP losing her congressional seat in a special election, now looks perched to announce a bid for Governor.

With incumbent Kathy Hochul (D) posting poor job approval numbers and facing at least one strong Democratic primary opponent, a credible Republican’s chance to win the Governorship, while still a reach, appears better than in most election cycles. Even if she runs and loses, Rep. Stefanik would likely then be in line for another Trump appointment.

SC-1: South Carolina Congresswoman Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) is close to making an official gubernatorial announcement.

The three-term House member has been confirming for months that she is considering the open statewide race and when Attorney General Alan Wilson declared his gubernatorial candidacy earlier this week, Rep. Mace came out swinging, publicly attacking him as being “soft on crime.” Her swift response and comments are a discernible clue that she will soon officially enter the statewide campaign.

SC-5: Another South Carolina Congressman, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), is scheduling a “special announcement” for July 27, which is a clear signal that he, too, will run for Governor.

Assuming AG Wilson and the two House members all compete for the GOP nomination, a highly competitive Republican primary battle would transpire, culminating next June. Should no one obtain majority support in the June 11, 2026 primary, the top two finishers will participate in a runoff election two weeks later on June 25. The eventual GOP nominee will have the inside track to succeed retiring Gov. Henry McMaster (R).

There are several more members who have confirmed they are considering running for a different office but to date have yet to make any discernible move toward developing a statewide campaign. The Representatives in this category are:

Barry Moore (R-AL-1) — Senate
Rich McCormick (R-GA-7) — Senate
Mike Collins (R-GA-10) — Senate
Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA-14) — Governor
Darin LaHood (R-IL-16) — Governor
Ritchie Torres (D-NY-15) — Governor
Dan Meuser (R-PA-9) — Governor
Harriet Hageman (R-WY-AL) — Governor

In the past, the following members have been mentioned as possible statewide candidates but are now considered unlikely prospects:

Cory Mills (R-FL-7) — Senate
Jared Moskowitz (D-FL-23) — Governor
Carlos Gimenez (R-FL-28) — Mayor of Miami-Dade County
Mike Lawler (R-NY-17) — Governor

An Early Redistricting Cycle

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 26, 2025

Redistricting

Putting together the redistricting puzzle

It appears we will see at least three states soon begin a mid-decade redistricting effort for various reasons.

It has been long assumed that the Wisconsin state Supreme Court justices would re-draw the congressional boundaries before the 2026 election. After the Democrats secured their high court majority before the 2024 election, the members reconfigured the state Assembly and Senate as a way to “rectify the Republican majority’s partisan gerrymander.” Surprisingly, the court did not follow suit to simultaneously change the congressional district map. It is probable they will take such action soon.

It is believed that a majority of the court justices, as at least two publicly stated when campaigning for their position, see the current 6R-2D congressional map as constituting a partisan gerrymander. It is expected that the justices will assign a special master to draw districts that would bring the partisan ratio to 4-4, which could mean Reps. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) and Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) might lose their seats while threatening the very tight US House Republican majority.

The state of Ohio is also preparing for a re-draw, but not because of a partisan gerrymandering. Under Ohio election law, plans must pass both houses of the legislature with three-fifths of the voting members. Because the 2021 congressional plan was adopted with only majority support, the map would only be in effect for two succeeding elections, 2022 and 2024. Therefore, in order to comply with state law, the Ohio redistricting commission, comprised of elected officials, and the legislature must again embark upon the redistricting process.

Republicans hold a 10-5 advantage in the congressional delegation with two of the Democratic seats, District 9 (Rep. Marcy Kaptur; 48.3 – 47.6 percent 2024 election result) and District 13 (Rep. Emilia Sykes; 51.1 – 48.9 percent), being very tight from a partisan perspective. The weakest Republican showing in the last election came from Rep. Max Miller (R-Rocky River; 51.1 – 36.1 percent). Excluding Rep. Miller’s 51 percent tally, the remaining nine Republicans averaged 65.2 percent of the vote.

With Republicans generally in charge of the redistricting process expect moves to make the Kaptur and Sykes’ districts more Republican.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has called a special legislative session to begin July 21. Because Texas only has a short 140-day legislative session every other year, it has been commonplace after the last few sessions to bring the members back into an extra session to complete unfinished business.

Under Texas law, the Governor has sole authority to call a special session, but the legislative period can only consume 30 days. It is possible for the Governor to call additional sessions if more time is needed. Also importantly, it is only the Governor who sets the agenda for the legislative session. It is widely believed that Gov. Abbott will add congressional redistricting to this particular legislative special session.

Each of the three states has a unique reason for conducting a mid-decade redistricting session. In Texas’ case, it is because excessive growth has made several districts severely overpopulated.

Using the US Census Bureau’s mid-decade population estimates, Texas has grown in population by a 7.2 percent rate since the 2020 census was concluded. During this same time period, the national growth rate is 2.6 percent. The Texas number translates into over 1.2 million more people living in the state since the last Census. Should this trend continue, the Texas population will swell by over 4 million more people by 2030 when compared to 2020.

Therefore, the growth numbers account for the early estimated national reapportionment calculations that suggest Texas could gain an additional four congressional seats for the next decade. Hence, the Governor and legislative leaders will again redistrict to more equitably distribute the state’s major raw number growth figure throughout its current 38 congressional districts.

The Texas congressional delegation stands at 25R-13D; therefore, it would not be surprising to see the GOP dominated legislature attempt to expand the Republican position within the current congressional delegation through the redistricting session.

IA-1: A Close Re-match Predicted

Iowa Congressional Districts

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 24, 2025

House

Iowa’s southeastern 1st Congressional District delivered the third-closest US House race in 2024, and the two principals are officially returning for a re-match. Late last week, former state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D) announced that she would return for a third attempt at unseating Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire).

The Congresswoman first won her seat in 2020 after several tries with a six-vote victory over former state Senator and Lieutenant Governor nominee Rita Hart (D) from the previous 2nd District.

Iowa runs a unique redistricting system, basically ceding map-drawing responsibility to a legislative committee staff who design the districts based upon a mathematical algorithm. The legislature then has the right to approve or reject the map without amendment.

In the 2021 redistricting cycle, the legislature turned down the original map, which led to the present draw. The final plan forced Reps. Miller-Meeks and Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) to switch districts, but both Republican members have been able to hold their new CDs.

The 1st District covers 20 complete counties and is anchored in the Quad Cities area, which features the Davenport and Bettendorf municipalities in Scott County on the Iowa side of the Iowa-Illinois border. The remaining entities that comprise the four-city group lie in the Land of Lincoln.

The seat then stretches west as far as the city of Indianola, which lies due south of Iowa’s capital city of Des Moines. The other significant population centers are Iowa City, which houses the University of Iowa, and the Burlington, Clinton, and Newton communities.

IA-1 is politically marginal. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 50.0R – 46.7D partisan lean. President Trump carried the district with a 53.5 – 45.0 percent victory margin over Kamala Harris. In 2020, Trump defeated President Biden here, 50.5 – 47.6 percent.

Therefore, Rep. Miller-Meeks’ 799-vote victory margin, translating into a percentage spread of 48.4 – 48.2, was an underperfor-mance in relation to President Trump’s total, but also when compared to the partisan lean. In 2022, however, and again opposite Bohannan, Rep. Miller-Meeks scored a 52.6 – 42.9 percent victory, which is more consistent with other Republican margins.

The 2024 election cycle displayed obvious weakness for Rep. Miller-Meeks not only in the general election, but also in the Republican primary. In the June vote, Rep. Miller-Meeks managed only a 56 percent victory against a GOP primary opponent who literally spent no money.

The 2026 IA-1 race will again be close, and Miller-Meeks must work to strengthen her Republican base, since the Trump coalition, or MAGA faction, as a group apparently does not believe her to be solidly conservative.

Rep. Miller-Meeks’ 2024 Republican opponent, advertising executive David Pautsch, returns for a re-match and pledges to run a serious campaign in the 2026 primary although his $8,170 raised in the first quarter of 2025 doesn’t provide evidence of a budding competitive effort.

Seeing the 2nd Quarter totals for both candidates — the period closes June 30 with a filing deadline of July 15 — will be interesting. Obviously, Pautsch must significantly improve his fundraising for his candidacy to become credible, and it will be worth seeing if Rep. Miller-Meeks continues to do well on the fundraising trail. In the 1st Quarter, she reported a strong $1.02 million in receipts with a cash-on-hand figure of $1.09 million.

Clearly, the IA-1 contest is a congressional race with national majority implications since the House partisan divide after the 2026 election is again projected to be very close. Expect a very expensive general election congressional campaign in southeast Iowa and another close finish.

Special Elections Update

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Special Elections

Tennessee Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville)

With Tennessee Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) announcing that he will resign from the House after the “Big Beautiful Bill” is enacted, now four special congressional elections will occur before the end of 2025.

Due to the deaths of Reps. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), Sylvester Turner (D-TX), and Gerry Connally (D-VA), three elections to fill those vacancies have already been scheduled.

The earliest calendar is in Virginia, where the party primary date has been set for June 28 with the special general scheduled for Sept. 9. Here, the two leading contenders are Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D) and state Sen. Stella Pekarsky (D-Centreville). With a partisan lean of 67.2D – 30.7R (Dave’s Redistricting App), the eventual Democratic nominee becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the special general election.

On July 15, partisan primaries will be conducted to replace late Arizona Rep. Grijalva. As in the Virginia situation, the AZ-7 district is heavily Democratic (Dave’s Redistricting App: 65.5D – 32.3R), so the nomination battle largely between ex-Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, the late Congressman’s daughter, and former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez will decide who wins the Sept. 23 special general election. Early indications suggest that Grijalva is a heavy favorite to clinch the Democratic primary and succeed her father in Congress.

The Texas special election for the Houston-anchored 18th District is scheduled concurrently with the state’s Nov. 4 municipal election calendar. In this situation, a jungle primary will be held featuring all candidates on the same ballot regardless of political party affiliation. The TX-18 seat is even more overwhelmingly Democratic than the two other CDs discussed above. The partisan lean, again according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, is 73.6D – 24.4R so there is little doubt the Democrats will hold the seat.

A total of 19 Democrats have declared for the special election along with four Republicans and six Independents. The latter category includes George Foreman IV, son of the famous late professional heavyweight boxer George Foreman. The free-for-all primary will almost assuredly lead to a runoff election because no contender is likely to obtain majority support on the initial vote within such a large candidate field.

Once it becomes evident that no winner will emerge in the November special election, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will schedule a runoff vote for a time no later than early January. The leading candidates appear to be Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee, former City Councilmember, statewide, and congressional candidate Amanda Edwards, and energy company executive Zoe Cadore.

Already we see candidate action in Tennessee’s 7th District. Unlike the other CDs headed for special elections, the TN-7 seat is strongly Republican. The partisan lean here is 55.1R – 42.1D (Dave’s Redistricting App). Rep. Green was re-elected in November with a 60-38 percent victory margin over former Nashville Mayor Megan Barry (D). He averaged 64.1 percent of the vote in his four general election campaigns.

Democrats look ready to compete for the seat despite what appear to be favorable Republican retention odds. Former Mayor Barry indicates she will consider entering the special election Democratic field. State Rep. Vincent Dixie (D-Nashville) says he is virtually certain to become a candidate. State Rep. Bo Mitchell (D-Nashville) also confirms he is weighing the possibility of becoming a congressional contender.

Two prominent Republicans have already declared they will run for the soon-to-be vacated congressional seat. State General Services Commissioner Matt Van Epps announced he is resigning his cabinet position to enter the congressional field, and Montgomery County Commissioner Jason Knight is also formulating a congressional campaign. Therefore, it appears we will see competitive special election primaries in both parties.

Gov. Bill Lee (R) will have 10 days to set the special election calendar once Rep. Green officially resigns. The Governor must then calendar the partisan primaries and general election within a period not to exceed 107 days from the time he issues the official call. This means, if Rep. Green resigns on or around Aug. 1, that we would see the primary elections held in late September with the special general in early or mid-November.

The 7th District lies largely in western Tennessee, encompassing parts of the capital city of Nashville and Davidson County. The seat stretches from the northern Tennessee-Kentucky border south to just above Florence, Alabama.

The 7th contains 11 counties and parts of three others. The district’s three largest population centers are Nashville, Clarksville in Montgomery County, and Franklin in Williamson County. President Trump carried TN-7 last November with a 60.4 – 38.1 percent victory margin over Kamala Harris. In 2020, he topped President Joe Biden here, 56.4 – 41.3 percent.

Problems for Both Parties

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 13, 2025

House

It appears that both major political parties have problems to overcome in order to achieve success in the 2026 congressional midterm elections.

Earlier this month, we produced a Political Update that found Democratic voter registration is down in all 31 states that record a voter’s political affiliation (Democrats Down in All States). In comparison, Republican registration under the same time parameters is up as a percentage to the whole in 23 of the 31 states. The Independent, or Non-affiliated option is up in 18 of the party registration state universes.

Since the Democratic downturn appears at least partially related to a reduction in their traditional share of younger and new voters, this is a serious trend that the party leaders must address.

The Republicans, however, also have a potential enthusiasm problem — or perhaps an organizational problem — which could be a warning sign for the 2026 midterm elections.

The Down Ballot political blog mathematicians have been researching the special elections held after the 2024 presidential contest and have illustrated that Republican performance in almost every instance has significantly underperformed the baseline that President Donald Trump set last November.

So far in 2025, there have been 29 special elections for state legislature (27) and the US House of Representatives (2) in 12 states. In two instances, state Senate seats in Iowa and Pennsylvania, Democratic candidates converted traditional GOP districts and seats where, according to The Down Ballot calculations, the Republican candidate underperformed the combined Trump-Kamala Harris total by a net 25 (Iowa) and 16 (Pennsylvania) percentage points.

The mean average Republican underperformance factor in all 29 special election districts is 16.4 percent under Trump’s performance against Harris, and 12.2 percent below his standing against President Joe Biden in 2020.

Earlier this week, on Tuesday, June 10, six state legislative special elections were held — three in Florida, two in Oklahoma, and one in Massachusetts. The result pattern was mixed. In Oklahoma, though in a strongly Democratic district, the Republican nominee, again according to The Down Ballot statisticians, ran a whopping net 50 percentage points behind the combined Trump vs. Harris 2024 recorded vote.

Looking at the other Oklahoma state House special election, the Republican candidate won the seat but fell below the Trump vs. Harris combined percentage by a net 13 points.

Yet, in a Massachusetts state Senate special election, the Republican candidate overperformed, losing the election by just 21 votes, which proved a net five percentage point increase over the 2024 presidential result.

Republican candidates held all three seats the party risked in the June 10 Florida special elections, one in the state Senate and two in the state House. Yet, they again fell below the Trump Republican performance standard, this time by a net nine, 11, and 21 percentage points.

The question that must be asked in reflecting on this data is whether the Republican candidates are underperforming, or is President Trump simply an over-achiever? The answer could be a combination of the two scenarios. What has become clear, however, is that a Trump voter is not necessarily a Republican partisan, and many are not habitual voters. This means a significant number of individuals within the Trump coalition are simply unlikely to participate in a special election even though they come to the polls when the President himself is on the ballot.

Furthermore, it is also unlikely that the Republican special election underperformance is a result of people changing their allegiance as a protest to the Trump Administration. Rather, it is probable that the most prolific reason for the GOP’s lesser 2025 track record is failing to convince enough of their coalition to return to the polls for the irregular and under-publicized elections.

Pertaining to the 2026 congressional midterms, both parties must return to basics in order to energize their coalitions. Democrats must find a solution to their young and new voter problem, while Republicans must develop better messaging to convince the casual Trump voter to cast a ballot to help their President’s allies.

House, Governor, City & State Wrap up

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 12, 2025

House

Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly passed away Wednesday, May 21, 2025.

VA-11 — Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has scheduled the special election to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) for Sept. 9. It is now up to the local party congressional district committees to decide upon the type of nomination system to employ. Democrats have chosen the “firehouse primary” option, which features only a few polling places throughout the district. The firehouse special primary is scheduled for June 28. Republicans have yet to decide between a firehouse primary or a party convention.

Democrats will be heavily favored to hold the seat. The leading candidates are Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D) and state Sen. Stella Pekarsky (D-Centreville).

CO-3 — Former Colorado Republican Party Vice Chair Hope Scheppelman announced a primary challenge from the right to freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Grand Junction). It remains to be seen if this challenge will develop into a serious campaign. Irrespective of the primary situation, Rep. Hurd will be favored for renomination and re-election in a district where the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 52.6R – 43.3D partisan lean.

GA-13 — State Rep. Jasmine Clark (D-Lilburn) has joined the crowded Democratic primary challenging veteran Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta). Previously announced major candidates are state Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur) and former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair (D). While Rep. Scott says he plans to seek a 13th term in the House, he has major health concerns, and the prevailing political opinion is that he will announce his retirement before the state’s March candidate filing deadline.

MD-5 — Saying the 85-year-old longest-serving House Democrat should retire due to his advanced age, public safety consultant Harry Jarin, 35 years old, announced a Democratic primary challenge against former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville). For his part, Rep. Hoyer has yet to say whether he will seek a 24th term, but most expect him to run again. He will be 87 years old at the time of the next general election.

NE-2 — State Sen. John Cavanaugh (D-Omaha), whose father, former US Rep. John J. Cavanaugh, III (D), served two terms in the House during the 1970s, announced that he will run for the congressional seat in 2026. He will face a crowded Democratic primary featuring political consultant Denise Powell, surgeon Mark Johnston, and attorney Van Argyrakis. The eventual nominee will face five-term Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) who says he will announce whether he will seek another term during the summer. Nebraska’s 2nd District continues to be one of the most competitive in the country.

PA-8 — Former six-term Congressman Matt Cartwright (D), who lost his seat last November to freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township/Scranton), said he will not return for a re-match next year. This leaves the Democrats with no major candidate in a what is projected to be a competitive 2026 congressional race. Republicans ousted two incumbent Pennsylvania House members in 2024, Reps. Cartwright and Susan Wild (D-Allentown). Neither are forging a comeback attempt next year.

WA-9 — Former Seattle City Councilwoman Kshama Sawant, a self-identified socialist, announced that she will challenge veteran Rep. Adam Smith (D-Bellevue) as an Independent in next year’s general election. Sawant served three terms as an at-large City Councilwoman, leaving office in 2023. She survived a recall attempt in a close 2021 vote. Rep. Smith, the Ranking Minority Member of the House Armed Services Committee, is expected to seek a 16th term and will be a prohibitive favorite for re-election.

Governor

Arizona — A new survey that the American Commitment organization sponsored (May 23-25; 1,147 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; online) finds Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) moving into a commanding lead over 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson for the state’s Republican gubernatorial nomination. According to the ballot test result, Rep. Biggs would lead Robson, 57-25 percent.

Earlier, Noble Predictive Insights released their general election poll (May 12-16; 1,026 registered Arizona voters; online) and projects Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) to be leading Rep. Biggs 40-38 percent, and Robson by a similar 41-39 percent count. This latter poll confirms what has been expected, that the 2026 Governor’s race will yield another hotly contested political battle.

Connecticut — In a news conference with reporters to discuss the end of the Connecticut legislative session, Gov. Ned Lamont (D) sent clear signals that he is heading toward announcing his candidacy for a third term. The political field has largely been frozen awaiting the Governor’s political decision. Should he announce for re-election, Lamont will be rated as a clear favorite to secure a third term.

Florida — Former Rep. David Jolly, who won a 2014 special election in the Pinellas County seat as a Republican lobbyist but then lost re-election in 2016 to party switcher Charlie Crist (D), became a GOP critic on national news shows. He switched his party identification to Independent after losing the House seat and then moved to the Democratic column.

This week, Jolly announced his candidacy for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. He becomes the first significant Democrat to enter the race. While Jolly may be competitive for his new party’s nomination, Republicans will be favored to hold the Governorship in an open election. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is the leading Republican gubernatorial candidate.

Iowa — While most political observers are watching whether state Attorney General Brenna Bird will join the open Republican gubernatorial primary to battle Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) for the party nomination, state Rep. Eddie Andrews (R-Johnston) announced that he is joining the race. State Sen. Mike Bousselot (R-Des Moines) is also a GOP gubernatorial candidate. Democrats are coalescing behind their lone statewide elected official, state Auditor Rob Sand. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking a third term.

Maine — A newly published Pan Atlantic research firm poll (May 12-26; 840 likely Maine voters; 325 likely Maine Democratic primary voters; online) finds businessman Angus King, III leading the open Democratic gubernatorial primary with 33 percent preference. In second place is Secretary of State Shenna Bellows at 24 percent. Following is unannounced candidate Hannah Pingree with 20 percent while former state Senate President Troy Jackson posts 13 percent support. King is the son of Sen. Angus King (I-ME), while Pingree is Rep. Chellie Pingree’s (D-North Haven/ Portland) daughter. Gov. Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

South Carolina — Democratic state Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D-Hopkins), a former basketball star for the College of Charleston, has formed an exploratory committee to test his chances in the open Governor’s race. Rep. Johnson is the first Democrat to make any move toward running for Governor which will be an uphill open general election race against the eventual Republican nominee.

City & State

Detroit — According to a new Detroit News and WDIV-TV poll that the Glengariff Group conducted (May 27-29; 500 likely Detroit mayoral election voters; live interview), City Council President Mary Sheffield (D) has a large lead to replace incumbent Mayor Mike Duggan, who is running for Governor as an Independent. The poll results post Sheffield to a 38-14-9-8 percent advantage over local Pastor Solomon Kinloch (D), former Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R), and ex-City Council President Saunteel Jenkins (D). The city’s jungle primary is scheduled for Aug. 5.

New Orleans — A JMC Analytics poll (May 27-28; 500 likely New Orleans mayoral election voters; live interview) sees New Orleans City Councilwoman Helena Moreno (D) capturing a majority vote for the upcoming open Oct. 11 jungle primary to replace term-limited incumbent LaToya Cantrell (D). According to the polling data, Moreno would lead City Councilman Oliver Thomas (D) 52-23 percent, with no other candidate in close proximity. If no one receives majority support on Oct. 11, the top two finishers will advance to a Nov. 15 runoff election.

CO-8: Another Battleground Campaign for Control of the US House

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 4, 2025

House

One certainty for the 2026 election cycle is that Colorado’s 8th Congressional District will again feature a competitive and hugely expensive campaign.

The Centennial State gained a new US House seat from the 2020 national reapportionment formula due to excessive population growth. The Colorado Independent Congressional Redistricting Commission members purposely drew the state’s new 8th CD as a highly competitive district that could go back and forth between the parties to reflect the electorate’s short-term political swings. So far, the district has performed as designed.

In the 2022 election, Democrat Yadira Caraveo, then a state Representative, won the 8th District’s initial election with a tight 48.4 – 47.7 percent victory margin over state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer (R-Weld County). Two years later, reflecting a more Republican trend in the marginal district, then-state Rep. Gabe Evans (R) unseated Caraveo by a similarly small victory spread, 48.9 – 48.2 percent.

The 2026 campaign has already drawn five Democratic candidates, including former Rep. Caraveo. Her campaign just released the results of the latest internal Public Policy Polling survey (May 19-20; 467 likely C0-8 Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) that posts the former Congresswoman to a substantial early lead in the party primary.

According to the PPP ballot test, Caraveo would attract 36 percent support compared to state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) and State Treasurer Dave Young’s eight percent preference factor. State Rep. Shannon Bird (D-Westminster) and former teacher’s union president Amie Baca-Oehlert trail at five and four percent, respectively.

The Democratic primary is already attracting significant local media attention. A story has surfaced that Caraveo, a physician, had previously attempted suicide. The district also attracted early acclaim when Rutinel, the first announced candidate, raised just under $1.2 million in this year’s first quarter.

In contrast, Caraveo, who spent over $8.1 million for her 2024 campaign and ended with just over $4,300 remaining in her account as 2024 concluded, had just $330 cash-on-hand for the new campaign at the end of March. Her financial status, however, will soon change. State Treasurer Young and state Rep. Bird are recent entries into the race. Baca-Oehlert is soon expected to formally announce her candidacy.

For his part, Rep. Evans reported 2025 receipts through March 31 of just under $811,000 and showed slightly more than $755,000 in his cash-on-hand column. In 2024, Evans’ campaign spent just under $2.7 million in the challenger effort.

We can expect to see each side, when adding independent expenditures to the aggregate, spending as much as $25 million apiece. In 2024, outside spending in the CO-8 race totaled almost $17 million for the Democrats (61 percent spent on negative ads) and $12.2 million for the Republicans (90 percent negative) according to the Open Secrets organization reports.

The 8th District lies north and east of Denver and contains the larger cities of Thornton, Westminster, Greeley, and Commerce City, and wholly lies in parts of three counties, Adams (87 percent of county’s population), Larimer (five percent), and Weld (75 percent). President Joe Biden carried the 8th District in 2020 with a 50.8 – 46.3 percent margin. Two years later, President Donald Trump rebounded to defeat Kamala Harris here, 49.6 – 47.8 percent, again reflecting the district’s tight political nature.

It can be debated whether having such a marginal political district that guarantees hugely expensive congressional campaigns every two years is reflective of the good government intention that the redistricting commission members professed for their reasons of drawing such a district. Yet, so far the draw has produced the desired effect.

The Colorado redistricting system features three citizens commissions each constructed to draw a set of districts (i.e., congressional, state Senate, and state House of Representatives). Some believe this model has been the best of the states that employ commissions.

One reason for the positive reviews is the state Supreme Court has a defined role in the process. Once the commissions complete their respective maps, the finished plans automatically move to the state Supreme Court for legal review before the plans are finally adopted.

Having the court as part of the defined process has resulted in no redistricting lawsuits being filed in the state; therefore, yielding a much smoother process. Unlike many states, the Colorado process has now virtually guaranteed that the maps will stay in place for the entire decade consistent with the original redistricting intent.

Early House Vulnerables

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 30, 2025

House

The Trump influence / Photo by Gage Skidmore

There will be a considerable number of contested US House seats in the 2026 election cycle, and the watch list begins with the members who won either election or re-election in a district where the electorate voted for the opposite party’s presidential candidate.

There are 16 such districts; 13 that President Trump carried while a Democrat won the House race, and three opposites; that is, districts where Kamala Harris proved victorious, but a Republican clinched the House campaign.

Today, we take a glimpse at the early races in the ticket-splitting seats where a clear general election campaign is already developing.

In terms of the Trump performance, the President carried 230 of the 435 US House districts in the 2024 election cycle. It is not until we reach Trump’s 197th-strongest seat do we see a Democrat win in a CD where the President prevailed.

• Though Trump scored a 53-44 percent victory in Maine’s 2nd District, Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) survived a close re-election battle with then-state Representative and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault (R) with 50.3 percent of the vote.

In 2026, it appears that Golden will face former two-term Gov. Paul LePage (R) in what promises to be a national congressional campaign. Rep. Golden has won four consecutive elections in the 2nd CD, but Gov. LePage has also carried the seat in all three of his gubernatorial runs.

• Turning to northern California’s 13th District, Republican incumbent John Duarte fell to Democrat Adam Gray by just 187 votes even with President Trump recording a victory margin of almost six percentage points. In 2026, Republicans are coalescing around Ceres Mayor Javier Lopez, who earned an endorsement from former Rep. Duarte when the defeated member announced that he would not return for a re-match.

• North Carolina’s 1st District was significantly changed in the 2023 redistricting plan and therefore will again be competitive in 2026. GOP candidate Laurie Buckhout, who held Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill/Rocky Mount) to a 49.5 – 47.8 percent re-election victory, accepted a Trump Administration appointment and will not run for Congress next year.

The Buckhout decision sets the stage for Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson (R) to make a return appearance and become an early consensus candidate. Roberson ran for the seat in 2022 but lost the Republican primary.

• Texas veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) survived his re-election campaign against a weak Republican candidate even with a federal indictment hanging over his head and President Trump scoring a 53.2 – 45.9 percent victory within the district confines.

Former Congresswoman Mayra Flores (R), who twice lost to Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) in the neighboring 34th District, announced that she will switch districts next year to challenge Rep. Cuellar. With a changing district and Flores as the GOP nominee (though she faces a Republican primary with, so far, only minor opponents), this district will attract more national attention in 2026.

• The most pro-Kamala Harris seat to elect a Republican Congressman is found in Omaha, Nebraska. While Harris clinched the 2nd District with a 51.6 – 47.0 percent victory margin, Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) was able to secure a fifth term with a 50.9 percent win. Bacon says he is undecided about whether to seek re-election in 2026.

Democrats are looking for another candidate to replace twice-defeated former state Sen. Tony Vargas, so we could see much change coming here in preparation for next year’s election. Regardless of who becomes the eventual party nominees, NE-2 will host a hotly contested race and is most likely the top Democratic national conversion opportunity.

• New York Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) is contemplating a gubernatorial run, and a crowd of Democrats are lining up for what promises to be a bruising nomination battle. Six Democrats, two of whom are local elected officials, have already announced their candidacies. The Republican leadership and President Trump are encouraging Rep. Lawler to remain in the 17th District campaign.

• Moving southward from New York to Pennsylvania, Democratic leaders want to replace twice-defeated 1st District nominee Ashley Ehasz who lost to Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) 56-44% last November even though Kamala Harris was carrying the seat with a slight 49.7 to 49.4 percent margin. Look for Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie to become a consensus Democratic candidate.

The other races in this category are still developing. The remaining Democratic incumbents who won Trump districts and can expect tough re-election campaigns are:

Josh Harder (CA-9)
Kristen McDonald Rivet (MI-8)
Susie Lee (NV-3)
Nellie Pou (NJ-9)
Gabe Vasquez (NM-2)
Tom Suozzi (NY-3)
Marcy Kaptur (OH-9)
Vicente Gonzalez (TX-34)
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-3)