Category Archives: House

The Closest House Races (Part I)

US House Balance of Power / Source: US House of Representatives Press Gallery

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 5, 2025

House

Now that the 2024 election numbers are all finalized and certified, we can begin to project battlegrounds for 2026. Republicans currently hold 218 seats while the Democrats have 215.

Not surprisingly, the House of Representatives’ very close partisan division yielded several tight finishes. In all, 29 House winners claimed their seats with less than 52 percent of the vote. As is the situation within the overall House chamber, the 11 closest winners are divided just about evenly between the two parties.

California Democrat Adam Gray unseated then-Rep. John Duarte (R) by just 187 votes in 2024.

In the 2024 election, the 11 most competitive House races were decided by less than two percentage points. Republicans won six of these tight decisions and Democrats five.

The closest race came in northern California, where Democrat Adam Gray unseated then-Rep. John Duarte (R) by just 187 votes. In 2022, the two battled to a difference of 564 votes but in the opposite finishing order.

The 2024 result was a bit surprising because President Donald Trump carried California’s 13th District by more than five percentage points. Seeing a Republican incumbent lose, even in such a close margin, with the top of the ticket finishing rather strongly, was unique in this election. Duarte was the only Republican incumbent to lose in a district that President Trump clinched.

Regardless of the reasons for Duarte’s razor-thin defeat, we can expect this Modesto-anchored CD to again be at the forefront of House battlegrounds next year.

The second closest House contest was also found in California, but this race was located more than 300 miles south of CA-13. Orange County Democrat Derek Tran unseated two-term Rep. Michelle Steel (R) by only 653 votes, or two-tenths of one percent. Rep. Steel has already filed a 2026 campaign committee, so seeing a re-match here in 2026 is a strong possibility.

Another contest where the challenger came within less than 1,000 votes of winning occurred in eastern Iowa. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) slipped past former state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D) with a 799-vote margin. This, however, is not Miller-Meeks’ closest finish. When she first won the seat in 2020, she did so by only a six-vote difference. Since Bohannan also ran in 2022, it is unclear whether she will return for a third attempt. Regardless of who the Democrats field in the next election, this again will be a major targeted race.

The Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission members drew the state’s new congressional seat as a politically marginal district that would reflect a changing electorate. Northern Colorado’s 8th District, located to the north and northeast of Denver and awarded to the state in the 2020 census, has so far performed as intended.

In 2022, then-state Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D) won here with only 48.4 percent of the vote, which translated into a half-point victory margin. In 2024, then-state Rep. Gabe Evans (R) unseated the Congresswoman with a similar percentage, 48.9 percent, and a victory spread of seven-tenths of a point.

Evans’ upset victory proved a major reason for the Republicans being able to hold onto their small majority. Look for another tight contest in this perennial battleground district next year.

The next two results feature Democratic incumbents winning with similarly small margins as shown above. Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) and Jared Golden (D-ME) both won re-election — a 20th time for Kaptur and third for Golden, but with less than a percentage point to spare.

Rep. Kaptur was first elected to her Toledo-anchored seat in 1982. She is the fourth-longest serving current House member and second-most senior in the Democratic Conference, behind only former Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD). Redistricting, however, has placed her in a plus-6 Republican district according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, which largely explains her tight finish this year. She defeated then-state Rep. Derek Merrin (R) by only seven-tenths of a percentage point in November, or a raw vote spread of 2,382 votes.

Maine’s Congressman Golden (D-Lewiston) continues to hang onto the state’s northern seat by small margins despite President Trump carrying the district with large vote spreads. The Pine Tree State’s Ranked Choice Voting system certainly helps Golden, and it did so again in November, largely enabling him to outlast then-state Rep. Austin Theriault (R) by 2,706 votes in the RCV round, which translated into 50.3 percent of the vote.

There is a chance that Rep. Golden will enter the open Governor’s race in 2026, so this lean Republican seat could be open for the next election. Theriault is likely to run again, so expect ME-2 once more to become a top GOP conversion target next year.

Tomorrow, we will look at the five remaining House races where the winner failed to reach the 51 percent plateau.

Michigan Rep. James’ Crushing Lead

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 4, 2025

Governor

Michigan Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills)

Should two-term Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) decide to enter the open Michigan Governor’s race, a new poll finds that he would begin as an overwhelming favorite for the Republican nomination.

For the first time in the modern political era, Michigan will host an open Governor and open Senate race in the same election cycle. Former Congressman Mike Rogers (R), who fell just 19,006 votes (three-tenths of one percent) short of defeating Rep. Elissa Slotkin in the 2024 open Senate race, is sending signals that he would like to try again in 2026. If so, he should be a lock to win the party nomination.

Before winning two House races in 2022 and 2024, Rep. James had lost two close Senate races. In 2018, he surprised the entire political world by finishing within 6.5 percentage points of upsetting veteran Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) in what was not viewed as a race with close potential. Two years later, James did even better, closing the gap with now-retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D) to 1.7 percent.

Post-redistricting in 2022, James defeated by half a percentage point former Macomb County prosecutor and ex-judge Carl Marlinga (D) in a Detroit suburban congressional district that favored the Democrats. He increased his victory percentage, again against Marlinga, to 6.1 percentage points in the 2024 re-election campaign.

President Donald Trump, who carried Michigan by just over 80,000 votes in November, looks to have breathed new life into a state Republican Party, which hadn’t seen a statewide victory here since Trump upset Hillary Clinton in 2016.

The new On-Message survey conducted for the Harbor Strategic Public Affairs company (Jan. 17-19; 1,000 likely Michigan Republican primary voters; text to web) yields very good news for Rep. James. He posts a commanding 46-6-4-3-1 percent advantage over state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (R-Porter Township), former Attorney General Mike Cox, 2022 gubernatorial candidate Kevin Rinke, and ex-state House Speaker Tom Leonard, respectively. Of this group, Cox has been the most active potential candidate to date.

The Republican downside of Rep. James running statewide is that his politically marginal 10th Congressional District could become the Democrats’ top national conversion opportunity. Marlinga is making moves to run for a third time, but the Democratic leadership will likely look for a candidate whom they perceive would be stronger since the former judge was a weak fundraiser and lost two consecutive races in a winnable district.

Furthermore, the GOP would likely not have as viable a candidate as Rep. James in the party’s 2026 attempt to hold the toss-up CD.

Conversely, the Governor’s race features interesting Republican possibilities. Toward the end of last year, three-term Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan surprisingly announced that he would enter the open Governor’s race (incumbent Gretchen Whitmer (D) is ineligible to seek a third term) and would do so as an Independent candidate. Though the mayoral campaigns are nonpartisan because party affiliation is not listed on the ballot, it was clear that Duggan associated himself with the Democrats. Therefore, announcing his gubernatorial bid as an Independent came as a surprise.

As a three-term citywide incumbent from the state’s largest municipality, Duggan will be a formidable gubernatorial candidate and has a chance to make this 2026 Michigan political contest a legitimate three-way race.

A strong Duggan performance could allow a credible Republican candidate such as James to win the statewide race with only plurality support. Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, who comes from the left-wing faction of the Democratic Party, has also announced her gubernatorial candidacy and is considered the favorite for the nomination at least at this early juncture.

Duggan, portraying himself as a more centrist candidate, could attract significant Democratic and Democratic-leaning Independent support, which is clearly his strategic objective, thus weakening the party’s prospects because their voters would be split.

Therefore, such a setup becomes much more enticing to a prospective Republican candidate who could unite the GOP for the general election. Rep. James certainly would have such ability.

At this point, the Congressman has not committed himself to running statewide, but polling such as this, and seeing his 77:6 percent positive favorability index from the OnMessage survey sample, is certainly another encouraging point.

The OnMessage data provides even more evidence that Michigan will be one of the top political states in the 2026 election cycle. Expect to see many political stories coming from this domain throughout the next two years.

Mississippi’s Sen. Hyde-Smith Favored for Re-Election; DSSC & Primaries; Fine Likely to Replace Waltz in Fla.; A GA-9 Challenge; Conn., NM Governor News

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Feb. 3, 2025

Senate

Mississippi Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)

Mississippi — Ty Pinkins, the 2024 Senate nominee against Sen. Roger Wicker (R) who received 37.2 percent of the vote, says he will challenge Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) in 2026. Sen. Hyde-Smith was appointed to the chamber when Sen. Thad Cochran (R) resigned due to health issues. She then defeated former US Agriculture Secretary and ex-Congressman Mike Espy (D) in the 2018 special election, and won a full term, again against Espy, in 2020 with a 54-44 percent vote spread. The Senator has announced for a second full term next year and will be the favorite to win re-election.

DSCC — At a fundraising event late this week, new Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) broadly hinted that the organization would not back away from getting involved in primaries. She made specific references to targeted contests in Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina. Democrats expect to mount strong challenges against Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Thom Tillis (R-NC), in addition to campaigning to hold their newly open Michigan seat.

House

Florida State Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne)

FL-6 — Though not residing in Florida’s vacant 6th District, state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) topped two GOP opponents with 83 percent support to win the special Republican primary to replace resigned Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach). Waltz left the House to become President Trump’s National Security Advisor.

Sen. Fine, like Jimmy Patronis in the open 1st District, had the support of President Trump and Sen. Rick Scott. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 6th District as R+28, so Sen. Fine becomes a definitive favorite to claim the seat in the April 1 special general election.

CO-8 — Freshman Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Ft. Lupton/Westminster) has already drawn a Democratic opponent in what will be another very competitive congressional race in northern Colorado’s 8th District. The Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission members drew this CD to be contested in every election, and so far it has performed as designed. Democrat Yadira Caraveo represented the seat in its initial term, only to fall to Evans in the 2024 election.

State Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) announced this week that he will enter the 2026 congressional race thus attempting to limit Rep. Evans to a one-term career. This contest will be a top target 2026 campaign.

GA-9 — Three-term US Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Athens) has drawn a significant primary challenger. Gainesville Mayor Sam Couvillion announced that he will challenge Rep. Clyde in the 2026 Republican primary.

Clyde, a Freedom Caucus member and one of the more conservative Representatives, has fared well in nomination contests. In his first run back in 2020, Clyde won a GOP runoff with 56 percent of the vote. He defeated four Republicans in 2022 with just over 74 percent and was unopposed for renomination in 2024. The Congressman will remain a heavy favorite for renomination in 2026.

Governor

Connecticut — New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart (R) has filed a 2026 gubernatorial campaign committee. She promises to make a formal announcement by the end of this month, but it is a virtual certainty that she will run. Gov. Ned Lamont (D), who is eligible to run for a third term, says he will make a decision about 2026 after the legislative session ends in June.

New Mexico — Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), just re-elected in November, says he will not run for Governor in 2026. The Heinrich decision makes former Interior Secretary and ex-Rep. Deb Haaland the undisputed front-runner for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Haaland is making moves toward entering the race but has not yet officially announced her candidacy.

Virginia: The co/efficient data group released their latest Virginia poll (Jan. 18-20; 867 likely 2025 Virginia general election voters; live interview & text) and again finds a toss-up open 2025 gubernatorial race between Democratic former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. Both appear to be presumptive nominees of their party at this early point in the election cycle. According to the co/efficient data, Spanberger and Earle-Sears would each command 40 percent support.

Michigan Sen. Gary Peters to Retire; Florida Special Election Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Jan. 29, 2025

Michigan

Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D)

Saying, “I always thought there would be a time that I would step aside and pass the reins for the next generation,” Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D) announced yesterday that he will not seek re-election to a fourth term next year. This is the first surprise political decision of the new political cycle.

The move is reminiscent of the 2024 election cycle, when another Michigan Senator, Debbie Stabenow (D), became the first incumbent to announce that she would retire. Sen. Peters, 66, also said that he “…never saw service in Congress as something you do your whole life.” The Senator’s comments suggest that he would venture into another type of livelihood potentially in the private sector.

The Peters retirement makes Michigan the political hotbed of the early 2026 election cycle. Not only will we see a competitive open Senate race here, as was the case in 2024, but the open Governor’s contest could feature a wild three-way political battle largely because Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan announced his candidacy as an Independent.

The Duggan entry enhances Republican prospects to win the Governor’s race because their nominee could take advantage of a split in the Democratic coalition, thus allowing the GOP candidate to win with plurality support. Until the coming election, Duggan had been a Democrat and is, of course, known as such in the state’s largest city where he has won three at-large elections.

Hosting two major competitive statewide races will certainly change the Michigan political landscape since many officeholders from both parties could enter each of these campaigns. In addition to Duggan entering the Governor’s race, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) last week declared for the Democratic Party nomination.

Turning to the Republicans, former state Attorney General Mike Cox has been making serious moves to enter the Governor’s race but has yet to formally announce his intentions.

Now, we can expect other statewide officials and US House members to be assessing their chances for what will be two major statewide campaigns with national implications. Watch for Democratic Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilcrest to make a move for one of the two slots, probably Governor. Attorney General Dana Nessel (D) is another who could be well positioned to make a move toward running for Governor or now Senate.

Within the Democratic congressional delegation, look for Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) and possibly Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids) to test the statewide political waters. Early reports suggest that former Transportation Secretary and 2020 presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg is also beginning to study his potential of competing in an open Michigan Senate contest.

On the Republican side, former Congressman Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate election by just three-tenths of one percentage point must be considered at the top of the 2026 Senate prospect lists. Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills), who lost to Sen. Peters in 2020 with a small 49.9 – 48.2 percent vote margin and is already being discussed as a possible gubernatorial candidate, is likely to again consider running statewide. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) is another GOP House member who will probably analyze his prospects for one of the statewide races.

Sen. Peters began his elected office career by winning a seat on the Rochester Hills City Council in 1991. He was then elected to the state Senate and US House before winning the US Senate seat in 2014, succeeding 36-year veteran Sen. Carl Levin (D) who chose not to seek a seventh term.

Florida Special Election Results

As expected, Florida CFO Jimmy Patronis, bearing endorsements from President Trump and Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), easily won the 1st District special Republican primary, which is the first step toward replacing resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz (R). Patronis captured 66 percent of the vote against nine Republican opponents. He now becomes the prohibitive favorite to defeat the Democratic nominee, Gay Valimont.

In the Atlantic coastal 6th CD, also as expected, state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) was an overwhelming winner in this special Republican primary election. Like Patronis, Sen. Fine had the public support of President Trump and Sen. Scott, among many other GOP leaders. He topped the field of two opponents with an 83 percent vote total. Sen. Fine is now a heavy favorite to win the special general election.

Both the 1st and 6th District special general elections are scheduled for April 1.

Florida’s Special Primaries Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2025

Special Primaries

Former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz | Former Florida Rep. Mike Waltz

Electorates in two vacant Florida US House districts will choose nominees today, taking the first step in filling congressional positions related to President Donald Trump selecting certain House members to join his Administration.

Former Rep. Matt Gaetz immediately resigned from his 1st District House seat when President Trump announced his nomination for the US Attorney General’s position. Though it quickly became clear that the US Senate would not confirm him to the position, Gaetz still decided to remain on the outside despite winning re-election to the House in November.

Trump also chose 6th District US Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) as his National Security Advisor. Since this position does not require Senate confirmation, Waltz was able to resign from the House on Jan. 20 and immediately begin serving in his new position.

Gov. Ron DeSantis, upon the President announcing his appointments, moved quickly to schedule the replacement special elections and combine them on one political calendar. Therefore, despite Waltz being out of Congress for only eight days, the special primaries to replace him and Gaetz are scheduled for today.

The 1st District lies in the western section of Florida’s northern Panhandle and is anchored in the Gulf of America cities of Pensacola, Navarre, Ft. Walton Beach, and many other small beach communities. The 1st is Florida’s safest Republican seat. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+38. The Down Ballot political blog ranks FL-1 as the 39th safest district in the House Republican Conference. Therefore, the winner of today’s special Republican primary will easily hold the seat in the April 1 special general election.

Vying for the party nomination are 10 candidates, but one stands alone as the clear favorite. State Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, though a resident of Panama City in the state’s 2nd District, is the definitive leader heading into today’s vote. He enjoys the endorsements of President Trump, Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), and Gov. DeSantis. He is expected to easily win the primary tonight and join the Congress in April. His strongest initial competitors dropped out of the race once Patronis secured his top endorsements.

Assuming victory tonight, Patronis will then face gun control activist Gay Valimont in the special general election. Valimont is unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

The situation in the state’s 6th District is just as clear. There, state Sen. Randy Fine is the prohibitive favorite to win today’s special Republican primary. Like Patronis, Sen. Fine enjoys the endorsements of President Trump, Sen. Scott, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and many more elected area officials. He faces only two minor Republican opponents in today’s election.

The 6th District lies on the Sunshine State’s Atlantic coast and is anchored in the cities of Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, and Palm Coast on the eastern shore, along with the inland communities of Belleview and De Land.

FL-6 is slightly less Republican than CD-1 but still rates a R+28 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization. The Down Ballot statisticians rank FL-6 as the 105th safest Republican House seat.

Three Democrats are vying for the party nomination, but tonight’s winner will be little more than a sacrificial lamb in the April 1 special general election.

Today represents the first step in filling the two Florida US House vacancies. In April, we can expect Patronis and Fine to be joining the body, thus giving Speaker Johnson slightly more partisan leeway for some critical votes later in the congressional session.

Reapportionment Projection Shows Significant State Gains & Losses

California Congressional Districts

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025

Reapportionment

Back in October, the American Redistricting Project released a national reapportionment estimate for the upcoming 2030 census, predicting which states would gain and lose congressional seats based upon unfolding population patterns. This week, the Brennan Center released their own reapportionment data, revealing some differentiation with the ARP conclusions.

Obviously, with half a decade to go before a new Census is conducted, no projection can be considered completely accurate because the population growth patterns will undoubtedly change at least to a degree over the next five years. Still, both the similarities and differences between the two projections are interesting to observe.

The similarities are much greater in number. Both organizations see California losing a whopping four seats, dropping the delegation size from 52 seats to 48. If these projections prove true, it will be only the second time in history that the Golden State will have lost representation. The first downgrade occurred in the 2020 census with a reduction of one district.

On the plus side, both data projections suggest that Texas will gain another four seats on top of the two they added in 2020 for a grand total of 42.

The other states that both organizations agree will gain one new seat are Arizona, Idaho, North Carolina, and Utah. Each agrees that the following states will lose one seat: Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.

The Oregon situation is interesting, because it suggests the Beaver State is on a path to relinquish the new seat they gained in the 2020 census. It is virtually unheard of to see a small population state gain in one census cycle but lose in the next.

Under the national reapportionment formula, the small states must show extreme population gains in order to add new seats, but also must experience extreme inhabitant lag in order to lose any of their congressional districts when compared to what happens in the larger states. Thus, Oregon, with a base of five districts and showing such diametrically opposite growth patterns in consecutive census cycles is a situation that has not before occurred in the modern era.

There are several differences between the projections. Both organizations find Florida in position to be another big gainer, however, the ARP sees the Sunshine State adding three new districts, while the Brennan Center believes the number will be four. If the latter calculation holds, Florida will increase its US House delegation size from 28 seats to 32.

While ARP projects Georgia and Tennessee to gain one seat apiece, the Brennan Center sees both holding their current House delegation quantity. In terms of seat losses, ARP sees New York losing three seats, while the Brennan Center projects a net loss of two. ARP also finds Illinois losing two seats, but BC calculates the Land of Lincoln loss count at only one.

The other difference is the Brennan Center projecting a one-seat loss for Wisconsin while ARP believes the Badger State count will remain at the current eight district level.

The Brennan organization also tracked the population shifts by region beginning in the decade of the 1960s to show how much the country’s migration patterns have changed over the course of what would be 70 years if their 2030 figures prove correct.

In the 60s, three geographic regions dominated the nation’s share of inhabitants. The Midwest and Plains states housed 125 congressional districts, the South 124, and the Northeast 117. Following was the West with 52, while the Rocky Mountain State region held only 17.

The 2030 projection shows big gains for the mountains and South. The Rocky Mountain region is expected to more than double its number of congressional districts from their level in the 1960s, growing from 17 to 36 seats. The South would expand by a third to 164 congressional districts, thus becoming the most populous region in the country. The West would increase to 66 from the 52 districts it held in the 60s.

The Midwest would have the largest reduction, going from 125 seats to 88, while the Northeast would see a similar decline, arriving at 81 seats from the 117 CDs they held in the 1960s.

While the 2030 projections will certainly change before the next Census is conducted, the regional patterns will probably be close to the mark. Therefore, we will see the South and West continue to grow with the colder climates in the Midwest and Northeast again attracting fewer inhabitants.

Gubernatorial Campaigns Projected to Affect US House Balance of Power

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 6, 2024

Governor

Term-limited Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R)

As the new Congress begins, election observers are already contemplating how the many open 2026 Governors’ campaigns might affect the razor-thin US House majority.

Looking toward next year’s election, a total of 36 states will host gubernatorial campaigns. In the 19 places where term limits are in effect, we will see open statewide contests. In many of these developing races, US House members are potential candidates. Therefore, protecting the small GOP majority with a large number of open seats becomes an even more difficult task.

Representatives who could run for an open Governor’s position are already rumored or announced in 10 states: Alabama, Colorado, Florida, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, South Carolina, and Tennessee.

Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) opting to seek re-election instead of running for Governor opens the field to replace term-limited Gov. Kay Ivey (R).

It is unlikely that Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Weaver/Gadsen) will risk his role as chairman of the House Armed Services Committee to run for Governor, but he is considered a possible candidate. Rep. Gary Palmer (R-Hoover), chairman of the House Policy Committee, is also a potential gubernatorial contender.

Already, polling is suggesting that Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder) is the leading potential candidate to succeed term-limited Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D). Yet we can expect a lively Democratic primary possibly between Reps. Neguse and Jason Crow (D-Aurora). It is doubtful that any Centennial State Republican House member, largely comprised of freshmen, will jump into the open Governor’s campaign.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), being ineligible to seek a third term, leaves a wide-open succession field. The person DeSantis appoints as the new Senator when incumbent Marco Rubio is confirmed as the US Secretary of State may influence who runs for Governor. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is the congressional member most often mentioned as having an interest in running for the office. The eventual GOP nominee will have the inside track of winning the next Sunshine State gubernatorial general election.

In Maine, all eyes are on whether Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) will attempt to replace term-limited Gov. Janet Mills (D). So far, Golden has not provided any hints about his future political plans.

The odd-year New Jersey open Governor race has already attracted two Democratic House members into the 2025 campaign, Reps. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), who leads in early polling, and Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) who enjoys a big edge in fundraising.

At the end of this term, Henry McMaster (R) will be the longest-serving Governor in South Carolina history but cannot run again to succeed himself. South Carolina has a two-term limit, but McMaster ascended to the office from his post as Lieutenant Governor when then-Gov. Nikki Haley resigned to become US Ambassador to the United Nations and did so during a time frame that still allowed him to run for two full terms.

A crowded open Republican primary field will form and could feature two US House members. Both Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) have indicated they are considering gubernatorial bids. Mace has also not quelled speculation that she could challenge Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) as he seeks renomination for a fifth term.

In Tennessee, several Republican House members are considering a bid for Governor but could be effectively blocked should just re-elected Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) continue to make moves suggesting that she will run.

Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville), Andy Ogles (R-Columbia), John Rose (R-Cookeville), and Mark Green (R-Clarksville) have all either indicated they are considering running for Governor or speculation has surrounded them regarding launching such a campaign. Incumbent Republican Bill Lee is ineligible to run for a third term.

While a midterm election cycle typically attracts lower voter interest, 2026 will feature a large number of competitive statewide campaigns. Expect the many open Governors’ races to also ignite a round of political musical chairs in several US House delegations.

NC Gov. Cooper “Not Done”; Rep. Evans to Return in Jan.; After the CR Vote; Oakland’s Mayoral Special Election

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Jan. 3, 2025

Governor

North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D)

North Carolina: Gov. Cooper “Not Done” — In his farewell address as North Carolina’s Governor, outgoing incumbent Roy Cooper (D) confirmed speculation that he has designs on running for another office. Cooper, as part of his departure speech, said he is “not done” with public service and left a broad hint that his name will again be on a ballot.

The unanswered question is whether Gov. Cooper will challenge Sen. Thom Tillis (R) in 2026 or begin to prepare a long range campaign for President in 2028. It is apparent that Cooper will be a part of at least one of those political endeavors.

House

PA-3: Rep. Evans Looking to Return in January — Pennsylvania Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia), who has not been voting in the House since May because he suffered a stroke, announced that he has recovered to the point of returning to work in January. Despite not being able to fully serve for months, Rep. Evans was unopposed for re-election to a 5th term in November. Prior to being elected to Congress, Evans served in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives for 35 years.

CR Vote: Quarter of GOP No Votes Not Returning — A significant number of the Republican House members who opposed the final continuing resolution package are not returning to the body in January.

Two members, Reps. Jim Banks (R-IN) and John Curtis (R-UT), were elected to the Senate in November. Three, Reps. Bob Good (R-VA), Dan Bishop (R-NC), and Alex Mooney (R-WV), lost races for re-election (Good), state Attorney General (Bishop), and US Senate (Mooney). Since the election, Bishop has been nominated to serve as President-Elect Trump’s Director of the Office of Management & Budget.

Three more individuals, Reps. Debbie Lesko (R-AZ), Greg Lopez (R-CO), and Matt Rosendale (R-MT), are retiring from the House. Lesko was elected to the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors in November. Lopez won a special election when then-Rep. Ken Buck (R) resigned but did not run for a full term.

Cities

Oakland, CA: Special Election Mayoral Candidate Speculation — Mayor Sheng Thao (D) was recalled by the voters on Nov. 5, and the Oakland City Council has set April 15 for the replacement election. Already, some prominent names are surfacing as potential candidates.

The first is outgoing Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), who ran unsuccessfully for the Senate earlier in the year and as a result risked her US House seat. Another is former NFL and University of California at Berkeley football star Marshawn Lynch, who has also been mentioned as a potential contender. Neither individual has yet confirmed interest in running, but both would be formidable candidates.

The current interim Mayor, City Council President Nikki Fortunato Bas (D), will not be a candidate in the special election. She was elected to the Alameda County Board of Supervisors on Nov. 5 and will be assuming her new position at the beginning of the year.

Lara Trump Out in Florida;
Vance Senate Replacement Update

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Jan. 2, 2025

Senate

Lara Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Former Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump announced before Christmas that she is removing herself from consideration to replace Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio as Senator in Florida, and there are new signals emerging about who will succeed Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance via similar appointment.

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) will appoint a new Florida Senator upon Rubio being confirmed as Secretary of State. Therefore, expect an individual who is close to DeSantis to be chosen. Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nunez, Attorney General Ashley Moody, and ex-state House Speaker Jose Olivo are possible Rubio successors. DeSantis says he will announce his choice sometime in January.

Sen. Rubio will likely be one of the first Trump nominees confirmed since his position is one of the more important and the approval process before his 99 colleagues is expected to progress smoothly. There is little suggestion that he will lose any Republican votes and is likely to attract some crossover Democratic support.

Possibly, a reason for Ms. Trump’s withdrawal from consideration is an understanding that Gov. DeSantis is headed in another direction. He certainly will pick someone who has a campaign background and the ability to raise funds. Ms. Trump fit the bill concerning both of those qualifications but is not a Florida political insider. Ms. Trump hails from North Carolina and the Eric Trump family has lived in Florida for only a short time.

Whoever Gov. DeSantis selects will have to run to serve the balance of the term in 2026, and then again in 2028 when the seat next comes in-cycle for a full six-year term. Therefore, the new Senator will be in heavy fundraising mode for a full four-year period since Florida, the state with the third largest population, is a very expensive place in which to campaign.

Ohio — The Ohio appointment is interesting in that the top prospects are all saying they instead want to run in the state’s open Governor’s contest. Originally, it appeared that both Lt. Gov. Jon Husted and Attorney General Dave Yost were thought to be the top appointment contenders. Both had already announced they were running for Governor and each reiterated he wanted to stay in the race.

Another potential appointment, Secretary of State Frank LaRose who ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in 2024, is also expressing interest in the Governor’s race. LaRose is thought of a long-shot appointment since he is well to the right of Gov. Mike DeWine, therefore it’s unlikely that the latter man would look in the Secretary’s direction.

Recent indications, however, suggest that Lt. Gov. Husted could still become Gov. DeWine’s choice for the Senate seat if Husted would change his intention and accept the position. Appointing Husted would make sense because it would save the Republicans from enduring a difficult and potentially divisive gubernatorial primary principally between he and Yost.

As in Florida, the new Ohio Senator will have to run in 2026 to fill the balance of the term, and then again in 2028 when the seat comes in-cycle for its six-year term. Therefore, it would behoove the Republicans to have a candidate who is experienced in running statewide campaigns and has the type of fundraising base that can sustain him or her through what will be a very expensive four-year political period, particularly if outgoing Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) decides to run in either 2026, 2028, or both.

In Brown’s unsuccessful re-election bid this year, he became the second most prolific fundraiser of all Senate candidates, attracting over $103 million in cycle financial receipts. Therefore, GOP fundraising would become an even greater priority if Brown becomes the new Senator’s opponent.

One group essentially disqualified from receiving a Senate appointment in either Florida and Ohio are Republican US House members. Already down a potential three seats until special elections are held due to Trump Administration nominations, the scant Republican majority cannot afford further leakage. Therefore, neither Governor will choose a Representative for the Senate appointment.

Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays (Plus, Gaetz’s Rumored Return)


Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays, everyone. Ellis Insight will be taking a break over the holidays. Today will be our last post this year. We’ll return Thursday, Jan. 2, 2025 with continuing updates.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 24, 2024

House

Resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fort Walton Beach)

In the fervor of the continuing resolution battle, a rumored side story may soon be picking up steam. Some are speculating that resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz may now take his seat when the new Congress commences on Jan. 3 at least for a short period.

Considering that more chatter surrounds Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) as becoming politically weaker through the CR fight seemingly makes a Gaetz return potentially more probable.

The resigned Congressman’s story never seems to end. To review, when Gaetz left the House in mid-November, he could do so only for the current term. He said in his resignation letter, however, that it is his “intent” to resign for the coming term.

In the Nov. 5 election, Gaetz was re-elected with 66 percent of the vote, so should he change his mind and decide to take the oath of office it would be difficult to craft an argument to deny him since his election percentage was overwhelming.

The speculation regarding him taking the oath of office on Jan. 3 appears to be twofold. First, he may now want to participate in the Speaker’s vote if he believes Johnson is beatable. His second reason could possibly be to release congressional “MeToo” names in retaliation for the House Ethics Committee members reversing course and publicizing their findings in his case.

Should Gaetz actually return, it is believed that he would only serve for a matter of days before resigning again to assume his recently agreed upon news anchor duties with the OAN Network. Yet, can any current political move be considered “a sure thing?”

How this situation concludes will likely depend upon the way in which the continuing resolution battle is resolved. If the government is shut down and remains so through the Jan. 3 congressional commencement, the odds may grow that Gaetz would take his seat to participate in what would be a historic, yet wholly chaotic, Speaker election on the House floor.

Remembering Kevin McCarthy’s Speaker election of two years ago, which consumed 15 rounds of roll calls, such a scenario as described above would likely make the coming Speaker vote even more noteworthy.

At this point, the possibility of Gaetz taking office for a short number of days is unlikely to affect the special election calendar that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) scheduled to fill his vacant 1st District seat for the new Congress. The special Republican primary is scheduled for Jan. 28 with the associated special general election on April 1.

Should Gaetz rescind his resignation intent and indicate he will serve the balance of the new term, he would likely have the right to do so, and the special election would be canceled.

Currently, nine Republicans, one Democrat, one Independent, and several qualified write-in candidates are competing for the seat in the special election. In what has continually proven to be Florida’s safest Republican seat (the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-1 as R+38) the Gaetz succession battle will likely be determined in the late January special Republican primary.

Though nine candidates are on the ballot, it is apparent the race is narrowing to two contenders: Florida CFO Jimmy Petronis and state Rep. Joel Rudman (R-Navarre). Most of the Republican establishment, including President-Elect Donald Trump and Florida Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), have endorsed Petronis. Several strong contenders dropped out of the race once Petronis received those endorsements, and likewise pledged their support to the current statewide official.

Once again, we see another unique political situation, and this one, too, merits watching all the way through conclusion.