Category Archives: 2024 Election

Challenging the US House
Real Clear Politics Ratings

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024

Polling

In a review of the national US House picture, we looked at various published race ratings. Those from Real Clear Politics are, to a degree, eyebrow raising.

The current RCP House rankings place 77 campaigns in the typical Likely Democrat, Lean Democrat, Toss-Up, Lean Republican, Likely Republican categories. An issue can be taken with 20 of the ratings, which seem to be mis-categorized based upon available recent polling data, resource imbalance, and historical voter performance.

Looking back at the 2022 RCP ratings just before the election finds that the Toss-Up and Lean Republican categories were particularly inaccurate. Just before people voted in ’22, RCP rated 34 campaigns as Toss-Ups. The end results found that Democrats won 28 of those contests versus only six for Republicans. This suggests that such a lopsided result means the category was somewhat miscast. Otherwise, the end result would have featured a more balanced partisan divide.

The Lean Republican category was a bad miss. According to the RCP ratings, 29 campaigns in the previous election cycle were housed in the column. Yet, Democrats won a majority of those contests, 15-14. This suggests that many of these races should have been labeled Toss-Ups, or even Lean Democrat.

In the current RCP ratings, 32 campaigns are rated as Toss-Ups. There is perhaps a better categorization for eight of the campaigns.

• Rep. Frank Mrvan (D-IN) defeated a stronger 2022 challenger, retired Air Force helicopter pilot Jennifer-Ruth Green (R), by a 53-47 percent margin in one of two Indiana districts drawn to favor a Democrat. Such a history suggests the 2024 contest should be considered Lean Democrat.

• Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) has won two consecutive highly competitive campaigns with margins well-short of going into political overtime. This, and against a new opponent, suggests that her race should also be moved from Toss-Up to Lean Democrat.

• Though Rep. Don Davis’ (D-NC) CD is more competitive than the district to which he was initially elected in 2022, the Tar Heel State’s 1st Congressional seat is still held by a Democrat. Additionally, with a 40 percent black population, a total minority percentage that exceeds 49 percent, and reliable regional vote history, means this race should reside in the Lean Democrat category as opposed to an outright Toss-Up.

• Though New Hampshire’s 1st District has routinely defeated many past incumbents, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) has won three consecutive elections. With such a short general election cycle from the Sept. 10 primary and being clear that Rep. Pappas has repeatedly defied the district’s partisan lean, it is reasonable to believe that he will do so again. This suggests the seat is no longer a Toss-Up seeing Rep. Pappas as his party’s nominee.

• Ohio Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) has a huge financial advantage over her opponent, GOP former state legislator Kevin Coughlin. The district statistically slightly leans Democrat, and considering this, Rep. Sykes’ incumbency, and her resource advantage provides the necessary evidence for a Lean Democrat rating.

• The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates Texas’ 34th District as D+17. This, plus the fact that Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) defeated former Rep. Mayra Flores (R) with a substantial 53-44 percent margin in 2022, suggests that this campaign could even be considered Likely Democrat.

• Virginia’s open 10th District is not close to a Toss-Up. Everything here favors the Democrat nominee, state Del. Suhas Subramanyam (D-Fairfax), so consider this race Likely Democrat.

• Washington Rep. Kim Schrier (D-Sammamish) has won three close elections in a district that used to be Republican. The state’s jungle primary has always been a good indicator as to what happens in the general election, and this year’s primary performance was Rep. Schrier’s strongest. While the possibility of an upset exists, the race should now be rated as another Lean Democrat contest.

Several other ratings also seem in need of adjustment. Based upon the post-primary polling, the at-large Alaska race featuring Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) and Republican Nick Begich III, should move from the Lean Democrat to the Toss-Up category.

Florida Reps. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland) and Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee) should move from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat. The same for the three Las Vegas Democrats, Reps. Dina Titus, Susie Lee, and Steven Hosford. Except for the Hosford race, the Republican candidates in these contests have badly under-performed.

Conversely, based upon polling, the AL-2 open campaign featuring Democrat Shomari Figures and Republican Caroleen Dobson should move from Likely to Lean Democrat. The Rep. Pat Ryan (D-Gardiner) tight Upstate New York seat should go to Lean Democrat from the Likely Dem category.

On the Republican side, Rep. David Valadao’s (R-Hanford) re-match battle in California should move into the Toss-Up category as his D+10 district is always very tight, and former Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D) is a strong opponent.

The two Iowa seats of Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) and Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant) should also move into the Toss-Up category based upon the most recent dead heat polls and the former member’s tepid 2024 primary performance.

Finally, Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-MT), who scored an unimpressive 2022 win in the new western Montana seat, should be moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican also based upon the latest published polling and regional voter history.

Moreno Records First Lead in Ohio Senate Race; A Dead Heat in VA-7; In Governors’ Races, Indiana Stays Close, Stein Pulling Away in NC

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 30, 2024

Senate

Ohio businessman Bernie Moreno (R)

Ohio: Moreno Records First Lead — RMG Research went into the Ohio field with a flash poll (Sept. 18-20; 781 likely Ohio voters; online) and for the first time found Republican challenger Bernie Moreno (R) leading Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). The ballot test posted Moreno to a 47-45 percent edge, and 48-46 percent when respondents who said they are leaning to one candidate or the other were added to the decided total.

Though RMG has produced some questionable recent data, the current Ohio Senate race progression suggests that the overall trend is moving in Moreno’s direction. The three September polls prior to the RMG data release found Sen. Brown’s margin to be 1, 3, and 2 points; therefore, this race is moving toward pure toss-up range.

House

VA-7: Another Dead-Heat Poll — Despite a huge 7:1 advantage in fundraising through the latest published Federal Election Commission campaign finance report (June 30), retired Army Col. Eugene Vindman (D) has not pulled away from Republican Iraq/Afghan War veteran Derrick Anderson (R) in their battle for Virginia’s 7th Congressional District. The new Ragnar Research Partners survey for the Anderson campaign (Sept. 14-17; 400 likely VA-7 voters; live interview) finds the two candidates locked in a dead-heat 43-43 percent tie. In August, the Ragnar data found the two contenders separated by only a 42-41 percent spread in Vindman’s favor.

The 7th District is one of the few competitive open seats in the country. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+2. The Down Ballot research organization ranks the seat as the 17th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. Incumbent Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) chose not to seek re-election in order to concentrate on a 2025 open race for governor.

Governor

Indiana: Closer Than Expected — The Republicans strength in the Hoosier State suggested that this year’s open governor’s race would not be particularly close. It still may end that way, but a new GBAO survey, conducted for the Democratic Governors Association (Sept. 19-22; 600 likely Indiana voters; live interview & text) currently finds a close ballot test result.

Despite former President Donald Trump leading the presidential race by 10 percentage points according to this Indiana poll, Sen. Mike Braun (R) maintains only a tepid advantage over former Superintendent of Public Instruction Jennifer McCormick (D), 44-41 percent. The poll suggests that Sen. Braun is weak among Republicans, garnering only 80 percent support within his own party. McCormick, according to this data, also has the advantage with Independents by a 42-32 percent clip.

The previously released survey, from Emerson College (Sept. 12-13; 1,000 likely Indiana voters; multiple sampling techniques) found Sen. Braun holding a much more substantial 11-point lead, 45-34 percent.

North Carolina: Stein Pulling Away — Republican gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson’s recent highly publicized controversy pertaining to past comments and actions is taking its toll. Attorney General Josh Stein (D) is now pulling away from Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson in what was once a close race.

A series of four polls from Emerson College, Victory Insights, the New York Times/Siena College, and Marist College, all conducted between Sept. 15-24, with sample sizes ranging from 600 to 1,348, projects Stein as leading the governor’s race by 8, 5, 10, and 11 points, consecutively. As Robinson’s problems continue to mount, the race moves toward Stein clinching victory. Expect the Democrats to retain control of the Tar Heel State governor’s mansion. Two-term Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

VP Harris Holds Slight Edge in Nevada; Balance of Senate Tested; Senate Money in Maryland; Examining California’s Key Districts

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 27, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Nevada: New Polling Data Tracking with 2020 Result — Noble Predictive Insights tested the Nevada electorate in reference to the presidential campaign and finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by only a percentage point, 48-47 percent.

Looking at the geographic division in the Noble poll and comparing it to Gov. Joe Lombardo’s (R) victorious 2022 votes received from Clark County (Las Vegas), Washoe County (Reno), and the rural Nevada areas, the Trump figures are equivalent to Lombardo’s performance in Clark and Washoe. It is the rural areas where Trump will need to slightly improve if he is to carry the state.

While he will outpace Harris by better than 2:1 in this region, Trump’s 2020 performance in the rural areas was a point behind Lombardo’s 2022 total. Considering Trump lost to then candidate Joe Biden by 2.3 percentage points here in 2020, the former president will need to improve slightly upon Lombardo’s numbers in all regions, but especially in the rural areas, if he is to compensate for his previous deficit.

Senate

FiveThirtyEight: Releases New Senate Mean Average Data — The FiveThirtyEight data organization released new mean averages for all the competitive Senate races and, for the most part, the numbers are consistent with averages publicized on other platforms.

While Democrats have relatively small but consistent leads in most of the competitive states, the Republican average is stronger (+3) in Montana, where a Tim Sheehy (R) victory over Sen. Jon Tester (D) would likely clinch an outright GOP Senate majority. The race that appears to be getting closer is in Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D) average advantage has dropped to three percentage points. The candidate with the strongest average is Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) at +9.

Maryland: Big Media Buy for Hogan Allies — Reports from the Free State are indicating that the Maryland’s Future Super PAC organization, which supports former Gov. Larry Hogan (R), has been reserving $18.2 million of advertising time for between now and the election. This is twice the amount that Democratic nominee Angela Alsobrooks is spending. Expect to see a large amount of Super PAC money to come to Alsobrooks’ rescue. The Democratic leadership and her outside allies will ensure the spending gap is at least equalized.

House

California: USC Releases Polls for Key Districts — The University of Southern California and the Center for Urban Politics and Policy at Cal State University Long Beach partnered to test eight California congressional districts. Two were Democrat vs. Democrat campaigns, and another found the sample size dropping significantly below an adequate level, so the numbers in CA-22 — Rep. David Valadao (R) vs. Rudy Salas (D) — should not be considered as viable. In the two Democratic seats, Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) board member Lateefah Simon leads in Rep. Barbara Lee’s (D-Oakland) open 12th District and former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo posts a sizable advantage in Rep. Anna Eshoo’s (D-Atherton) open 16th CD.

Interestingly, in only one of two races where the Republican candidate held a lead, the USC poll features a GOP challenger. Former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R) held a three-point lead over state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) in an open contest where the latter man’s most prevalent negative is his highly publicized drunk driving conviction. The other leader is Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) who posted only a one-point edge over former federal prosecutor and 2022 general election finalist Will Rollins (D).

The Democrats who were leading Republican incumbents were Adam Gray over Rep. John Duarte (one point difference), George Whitesides topping Rep. Mike Garcia (+2), and Derek Tran leading Rep. Michelle Steel (+2).
The pollsters interviewed 2,395 likely voters in the five congressional districts during the Sept. 14-21 period. Interestingly, the undecided voters, when pushed, leaned toward Reps. Duarte and Calvert, and for the Democratic candidate in the other three contests.

In terms of the presidential vote, Kamala Harris led in all tested districts against Donald Trump but ran an average of three percentage points behind Joe Biden’s 2020 tallies. All of these races are very much in play, and the turnout model will likely be the deciding factor.

Nebraska Not Likely to Change Electoral Vote System; Begich Up in Alaska; Lawler Leads Jones in NY-17; New Hampshire’s Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 26, 2024

President

Nebraska: Not Likely to Change Electoral Vote System — The proposed move to change the Nebraska electoral vote apportionment is apparently dead. A key state senator announced his opposition, and the bill appears stalled. Gov. Jim Pillen (R) was urging that the unicameral legislature change the state back to winner-take-all status like 48 other states. While the entire congressional delegation supported the governor’s move, the legislature is not going along.

Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that allow their congressional districts to carry their own electoral vote. The proposed change in Nebraska’s status would likely have given Donald Trump an extra electoral vote, which could be defining in what is expected to be a very close election. Chances are much better to make a change to effect the 2028 election. The state adopted their current electoral vote system in 1992.

House

AK-AL: Republican Begich Up for First Time — For the first time, a congressional poll shows Republican Nick Begich III leading incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel). American Viewpoint, polling for the National Republican Congressional Committee, (Sept. 14-17; 400 likely Alaska voters) finds Begich posting an edge of four points over Rep. Peltola, 44-40 percent.

Under the state’s top four system, two other candidates also advance into the general election, Democrat Eric Hafner, who is in federal prison, and Alaska Independent Party candidate John Wayne Howe. Should the final result show Begich the race leader but under 50 percent, the Ranked Choice Voting System will take effect, and this would likely mean that Rep. Peltola would win re-election even while getting fewer original votes.

NY-17: Lawler Continues to Lead — One of the key New York congressional races is Rep. Mike Lawler’s (R-Pearl River) first re-election battle in the D+7 (according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization) 17th Congressional District located in the Hudson Valley. Challenging the freshman congressman is former US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D).

The survey, from the Democratic polling firm GBAO (Sept. 15-18; 500 likely NY-17 voters; live interview and text), finds Rep. Lawler leading Jones, 46-43 percent, which, the polling analysis illustrates is down from the congressman’s seven-point margin in August. Still, a Republican having any lead in such a district is a positive sign for the incumbent.

Governor

New Hampshire: Democrat Leads Ayotte — Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte easily won the Republican primary on Sept. 10 (66-32 percent over former state Senate president and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse), but the general election looks much different according to a new University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll (Sept. 12-16; 1,695 likely New Hampshire general election voters; online). The ballot test shows a virtual tie between Ayotte and former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D), 47-46 percent.

New Hampshire is a swing state that has been trending Democratic in recent elections. Former President Donald Trump has performed below an average Republican, which is another factor that could hurt Ayotte. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released a new ad that compares Ayotte’s statement is 2016 that she would not vote for Trump with her current position that she is supporting him in 2024.

House Races Under the Radar

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024

2024 Election

US House Majority: Tightening Margin Predicted — It is becoming apparent that the 2024 election will produce another extremely close House majority, and maybe even tighter than the Republicans’ current five-seat margin.

While most of the attention is focused on the tight California and New York races where Republicans hold seven Democratic seats, others heretofore attracting less attention are also recently polling in toss-up range. Today, we look at three such campaigns.

• Iowa Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) is no stranger to close elections, having won her first term in the US House with only a six-vote margin. The eastern Iowa 1st District is politically marginal in that it contains the Hawkeye State portion of the Quad Cities area, which is a historically Democratic region.

In 2022, Rep. Miller-Meeks defeated then-state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D) with a 53-46 percent victory margin. Last week, Bohannan, who returns for a rematch, released an internal Normington Petts poll from late August (Aug. 27-29; 400 likely IA-1 voters), which found the two candidates tied at 47 percent apiece. Rep. Miller-Meeks only received 56 percent in the Republican primary against weak opposition thus providing further evidence that this race is evolving into a toss-up campaign.

The 1st District running in a tied situation was not expected, but the region’s political history suggests that such a tight contest should not be considered so surprising. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+4, and the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate the district’s partisan lean as 50.0R – 47.0D. The Down Ballot data organization ranks IA-1 as the 23rd most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. In 2020, Trump carried the seat with only a 50-48 percent vote spread.

• The 2nd District of Maine attracts a great deal of attention in presidential years because the seat now routinely votes opposite of the statewide tally. Aside from Nebraska, the only other state to split its electoral votes and allow each congressional district to decide its own presidential tally is Maine. While the state has twice voted for the Democratic nominee against Donald Trump, the Republican has carried ME-2 in both of his elections and leads in polling this year.

Therefore, more attention will soon be drawn to the state’s 2nd District congressional election where Democrat Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) is seeking a fourth term.

Pan Atlantic Research has released their early September Maine statewide poll (Sept. 5-15; 398 likely ME-2 voters from a pool of 812 statewide respondents; online) and it produced a surprising result. The data finds Rep. Golden actually trailing retired NASCAR driver and state Rep. Austin Theriault (R-Fort Kent) by a three-point margin, 47-44 percent.

The data looks similar to the 2018 numbers that first elected the congressman. In that election, Golden, then a challenger, was elected through Ranked Choice Voting even though then-Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) received more original votes. Though this 2024 race has the underpinnings to again be close, especially with former President Trump again likely to carry the seat, it may very well end with Rep. Golden once more winning through RCV even though his opponent could have more original votes.

• Western Wisconsin provides another seemingly under-the-radar competitive House race. Freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) won the Badger State’s 3rd District after Democrat Ron Kind had held the seat for 26 years. In 2022, Rep. Kind did not seek re-election.

WI-3 escapes attracting a great deal of national attention because Trump carried the seat in both of his elections, and with spreads of greater than four percentage points. He is also expected to win here this year in a state that will once again produce a very close statewide presidential tally.

Van Orden converted the 3rd District in the open election, but with a closer than expected 52-48 percent vote spread. National Democrats, believing their 2022 candidate had only long shot odds of defeating Van Orden, who had run a close 2020 race against then-Rep. Kind, didn’t expend a great deal of money in this campaign. They certainly will invest in the closing weeks of this election year.

Since his election to the House, Congressman Van Orden has made a series of controversial comments that have damaged his personal favorability rating. That being the case, the GBAO survey research firm, polling for the Democratic House Majority Super PAC (Sept. 8-10; 400 likely WI-3 voters), finds the congressman trailing his general election opponent, business owner Rebecca Cooke. The results yielded Cooke a two percentage point edge, 49-47 percent, providing further evidence that this is a viable Democratic conversion opportunity.

On the whole, Republican candidates appear to have taken an across-the-board downturn in polling during the latter half of August and into early September. This is largely because of renewed Democrat optimism with Vice President Kamala Harris’s national candidacy. Another reason is Republicans have been holding most of their advertising money for political prime time since the Democrats maintain greater resources.

The House majority will again be close, so every race counts. Races such as the three discussed here will go a long way toward defining the next majority even though they may not attract as much attention as what are commonly believed to be the premier national House campaigns.

Harris to Skip Traditional Event; Trump Declines Debate; Tracking Poll Trends; MT-1 Remains Close

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

VP Kamala Harris: Skipping Catholic Al Smith Event — The attacks on Vice President Kamala Harris failing to participate in public events or news conferences intensified over the past weekend when her campaign confirmed that she will not attend the annual Al Smith Catholic fundraising dinner in New York on Oct. 17.

It has become a tradition that the presidential candidates attend this function together, but the Harris campaign is deciding to buck a trend that has been in effect for 40 years. We can expect a Trump campaign attempt to use her decision to drive a wedge between Harris and Catholic voters.

Donald Trump: Rejects Oct. 23 Debate — It appears the first debate between Harris and former President Donald Trump will be the last. While Harris declined to participate in a Fox News debate that Trump accepted, now the Republican nominee has declined CNN’s invitation to debate Harris on Oct. 23. Trump says that date is too late for a forum since so many people will have already cast a ballot through early voting.

Senate

Tracking Polls: Ohio and Texas Flip Leaders — Tracking polls are conducted not so much to capture where a race stands, but rather to detect which candidate the race trend favors over a sustained period. Therefore, we see two major long term tracking polls suggesting that the underdog candidate in each important Senate contest is currently moving upward.

In Texas, the Morning Consult survey research firm is conducting a nationwide series of Senate and presidential race tracks in the key states. In Texas, the MC data (Sept. 9-18; 2,716 likely Texas voters; online) finds Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) pulling one point ahead of incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R), 45-44 percent. The Activote firm conducted a five-week track of the Ohio Senate race (Aug. 16-9/22; 400 likely Ohio voters) and sees GOP challenger Bernie Moreno moving ahead of Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) by two percentage points, 51-49 percent.

In neither case do these tracking results necessarily mean that the incumbent is now trailing, only that their opponents’ campaigns are on an upswing.

House

MT-1: Remains Close — The western 1st Congressional District of Montana was newly created after the 2020 census due to population growth, and its first election delivered a closer than expected final tally. In that contest, then-former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congressman Ryan Zinke (R) under-performed with his 50-46 percent win over former US Olympian Monica Tranel (D). The latest 2024 poll again featuring the two contenders shows another similarly close result.

The Noble Predictive Insights survey (Sept. 11-14; 432 likely MT-1 voters) finds Zinke leading Tranel by only a 47-43 percent margin with the Libertarian candidate taking three percentage points. While the Montana Democratic Party failed in their lawsuit to disqualify the Libertarian Party from the statewide ballot, in this race the presence of a minor party candidate might be helping their contender. While Rep. Zinke is still favored, it appears we are headed for another tight finish.

Postal Service Taking Ballot Delivery Hit; McIver Wins Special in NJ-10

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 23, 2024

USPS

Postal Service — The members of two major election officials’ organizations, the National Association of Secretaries of State and the National Association of State Election Directors, sent a joint letter to US Postmaster General Louis DeJoy in an early attempt to frame what could be another controversial ballot counting dilemma as a Postal Service failure.

The former president of the Secretaries of State organization, Kansas Secretary of State Scott Schwab (R), was already making negative comments toward the Postal Service just after the Aug. 6 primary when approximately 1,000 ballots couldn’t be counted because they arrived so late and without the necessary information indicating whether or not the parcel was mailed on or before Election Day. According to a quote in Schwab’s tweet as quoted in a PBS News article about the subject, he said, “the Pony Express is more efficient at this point.”

There is a good chance that we will again see political overtime in the November election because the national contest looks to be close, and several states, particularly in the west, take weeks to produce final results.

The latter instance will particularly affect determining the House majority. Currently, the Republicans have a five-vote majority, but the next Congress could feature an even smaller division between the two sides. If so, then the 12-14 competitive House races in Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington could well determine which party will win control of the House chamber.

With the time change in comparison to the east coast and the exhaustive signature verification process that commences in California and now Arizona, and with Alaska and Washington waiting more than a week for all of the post-election ballots to be received, it is more than likely that the majority will not be determined on election night. This means it could be a number of weeks before many tight races are ultimately decided.

At the center of the Postal Service controversy is the length of time taken to transport mail from the sender to the recipient, in this case from the mailbox to the election offices. The Secretaries of State and Election Directors’ letter points out that often ballots are delivered beyond the allotted time, three to five days, that the Postal Service allows itself to deliver first class mail.

The other issue is the postmarks. Many state laws allow mail ballots to be received after the election, but only if the envelope is postmarked on or before election day. Now, however, most mail, and often ballots, come in envelopes with a bar code. While the electronic scanner can determine when the ballot was received, it can’t track when it was actually sent.

Another problem for election officials in some states, all-important Pennsylvania being one, is the elimination of what was commonly referred to as “Zuckerbucks.” In 2020, Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg donated an aggregate of $400 million to various states and counties to help with the registration and counting process. Since many states then outlawed private citizens from contributing to the government, Zuckerburg is no longer making such contributions.

In Pennsylvania, for example, the lack of this extra funding has eliminated most of the controversial ballot drop boxes. In 2020, Zuckerbucks were used in many instances to pay for ballot drop box monitors, positions that are dictated under Pennsylvania law. Since the current election administration budgets apparently do not have monitors covered, most of the counties will no longer have ballot drop boxes because they don’t have the funds to pay for the individuals to control each site.

All of this suggests that we may have another chaotic political overtime period, so the Secretaries of State and Election Directors association members are already laying the groundwork to push the Postal Service front and center. This will force the mail officials to shoulder the blame for the expected post-election ballot counting controversies.

NJ-10

Special Election — Last week, voters in the Newark metropolitan area went to the polls to replace the late Rep. Donald Payne, Jr. (D-Newark), who passed away in late April.

The winner of last night’s special election is, as expected, Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver (D). She captured 81 percent of the vote from a turnout that will barely reach 30,000 voters. Upon certification of the results, McIver will immediately be sworn into the House to complete the balance of the current term. She is then the prohibitive favorite to win a full term in the November general election.

With McIver’s election, the House party division count is now 220R – 212D with three vacancies (2D and 1R). The other seats, in New Jersey, Texas, and Wisconsin, will all be filled concurrently with the November 5th general election.