Monthly Archives: June 2023

Trump Under-Performs in Georgia Poll; Wisconsin Rep. Gallagher Out; UT-2 Special Election Set; Hickingbottom Out – Again

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 13, 2023

President

How fares a generic GOP candidate or former President Donald Trump vs. President Joe Biden?

Georgia Poll: Trump Under-Performs vs. Generic Republican — A political action committee associated with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) — the Hardworking Americans PAC — released a Cygnal poll of the Peach State Republican electorate (June 5-7; 600 likely Georgia general election voters; interactive voice response system & text) and the results find that a generic-labeled Republican candidate performs much better against President Biden than does former President Donald Trump.

The poll showed that when asked if the respondent would favor President Joe Biden or a Republican candidate, the generic GOP candidate would lead by double digits, 48-38 percent. If Trump were the Republican candidate, however, the race resolves into a virtual tie, with the former president scoring 42.0 percent and Biden attracting 41.4 percent support. Arguably, Georgia is the most important bellwether state on the 2024 presidential map. Considering the swing states in play, a Republican candidate cannot win the presidency in 2024 without taking Georgia.

Senate

Wisconsin: Rep. Gallagher Out — Wisconsin Congressman Mike Gallagher (R-Green Bay), who appeared to be the Republican leadership’s top Senate candidate recruitment target, said on Friday that he will not challenge Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) next year. Gallagher is moving up the House ladder and wants to remain on that path. Some believe he will instead wait until 2028 to make a statewide move when Sen. Ron Johnson (R) is expected to retire.

A new poll found former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke leading the Republican field, though he is not an announced candidate. Rep. Gallagher was a strong second. Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) is testing the Senate political waters, so chances of him pursuing a statewide bid considering the Gallagher decision may increase.

House

UT-2: Special Election Set — Gov. Spencer Cox (R) set the special primary election to replace resigning US Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington) for Sept. 5 and the special general on Nov. 21; the candidate filing period closes on Wednesday. Therefore, individuals have little time to declare their candidacies.

For the Republicans, who will be favored to hold the seat, former state House Speaker Greg Hughes, ex-state representative and US Senate candidate Becky Edwards, and former Republican National Committeeman Bruce Hough have announced they will run, and at this point comprise the first tier. Several others are expected to run also. For the Democrats, the lone pre-filing contender is state Sen. Kathleen Riebe (D-Cottonwood Heights).

After filing closes, the parties will call a special district convention. The delegates will then nominate one candidate to advance into the special primary by majority vote. Others can still qualify for the primary through the petition signature process.

Governor

Mississippi: Hickingbottom Out Again — Earlier in the year, the Mississippi Democratic Party disqualified candidate Bob Hickingbottom from running for governor in the Democratic primary, saying he did not meet the signature requirement and because he previously ran statewide on a third party line. In late May, Hickingbottom won his court challenge to the Democrats’ ruling and was placed back on the primary ballot.

On Friday, however, the Mississippi state Supreme Court overturned the lower court decision and ruled that the MDP has the right to disqualify Hickingbottom. Therefore, Hickingbottom will be prohibited from running in the Democratic primary. The decision restores Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley to unopposed status for the party nomination. Democratic leaders wanted this to give Presley the biggest advantage possible as he tries to unseat Gov. Tate Reeves (R) in the 2023 general election.

Polls Show Republican Presidential Race Getting Tighter; A Twist in Wisconsin; SCOTUS Rules on Alabama Redistricting; Special Election in UT-2

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 12, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump still up, but down in polling.

State Polls: Republican Race Getting Tighter — Two very recent Republican presidential state polls were released late last week, one from Wisconsin and the other in Utah. While the Wisconsin spread is typical of what we are seeing in other places, the Utah poll has closed to within one percentage point.

Public Policy Polling (June 5-6; 507 likely Wisconsin voters) sees former President Donald Trump leading the Wisconsin GOP primary but with well less than majority support. The ballot test gives the former president a 41-25 percent lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Ex-Vice President Mike Pence is next with eight percent support, and no one else breaks five percent. In an isolation question featuring Trump and DeSantis, the former pPresident leads this only 43-39 percent.

The Utah numbers are much closer. In this Dan Jones & Associates poll for the Utah Republican Party (May 22-June 1; 421 registered Utah Republican voters), Trump’s advantage is only 27-26 percent over Gov. DeSantis.

Former Rep. Liz Cheney, not even a candidate, places third with seven percent, and no other candidate breaks the five percent mark. However, this poll’s long sampling period and small respondent universe, along with the introduction of Cheney into the mix, casts an accuracy shadow over this poll.

Senate

Wisconsin: Polling Leader Emerges; Not the GOP’s Top Choice — The Wisconsin Public Policy Polling survey (see President section above) also tested the state’s US Senate race featuring two-term incumbent Tammy Baldwin (D).

The Republican primary ballot test suggests that former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke would lead a prospective group of GOP candidates with 40 percent preference. Placing second is Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Green Bay) with 20 percent, followed by Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) at 10 percent. Clarke is not an official candidate, and viewed as someone who would be unlikely to win the general election. So far, Rep. Gallagher has not made a discernible move to enter the Senate race. Rep. Tiffany is testing the waters.

The Wisconsin race could become competitive, but Sen. Baldwin would begin any general election as the favorite to win in November.

House

Redistricting: SCOTUS Rules on Alabama — The US Supreme Court, on a 5-4 decision with Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh joining the majority, ruled in favor of the plaintiffs in the Alabama racial gerrymandering case. Therefore, the Alabama map will be redrawn to reflect a second minority district from the state’s seven seats. Louisiana will likely have to be redrawn as well.

Possible redraws could occur in several other southern states. The ruling is clearly a win for the Democrats and gives them even better odds of re-capturing the House majority in the 2024 election.

UT-2: Special Election Set — Since Utah Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington) submitted an irrevocable letter of resignation for Sept. 15 to Gov. Spencer Cox (R), that action has allowed the state’s chief executive to set at least the special primary election even before the congressman officially leaves office.

Under Utah law, the governor must schedule the special congressional election concurrent with another election. The municipal elections were scheduled for Aug. 15 and Nov. 7, but Gov. Cox is preparing to send the legislature a measure to change those dates to Sept. 5 and Nov. 21 and add the special congressional election to that ballot. These dates meet the federal electoral notice requirements.

The legislature is expected to comply. If they do not, the 2nd District seat could remain vacant for more than a year awaiting the regular primary schedule.

In this instance, the seat will be filled while Rep. Stewart remains in office, which is similar to the Oklahoma law that allows a resigning elected official to serve until a replacement is selected.

Sen. Hawley Draws Second Dem Opponent; IA-3 Re-Match Doubtful; Stewart Officially Resigns in Utah; Johnston Wins in Denver

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 9, 2023

Senate

First-term Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley (R)

Missouri: Sen. Hawley Draws Second Dem Opponent — St. Louis County prosecutor and ex-Ferguson City Councilman Wesley Bell (D) announced that he will enter next year’s US Senate race. He joins Iraq/Afghan War veteran and 2022 US Senate candidate Lucas Kunce in the 2024 Democratic primary.

In the ’22 race, Kunce lost the Democratic nomination 43-38 percent to Trudy Busch Valentine, a philanthropist who was a late entry into the campaign. She would then lose to current Sen. Eric Schmitt in the general election by a 55-42 percent count.

The Aug. 6, 2024, Democratic primary winner will face first-term Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley (R) in the general election. Sen. Hawley defeated Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) in the 2018 race with a 51.4 – 45.6 percent margin. He is favored for re-election in a state that should lie solidly within the Republican realm during the next election. In 2020, then-President Trump defeated Joe Biden, 57-41 percent, in The Show Me State.

House

IA-3: Re-Match Doubtful — In 2022, then-state Sen. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant) upset Rep. Cindy Axne (D-Des Moines) to claim the 3rd District seat. Thoughts of a re-match were routinely discussed, but the latest action suggests one will not occur, at least in 2024. President Biden announced that he has appointed former Rep. Axne as a senior advisor to the Department of Agriculture for rural engagement, delivery, and prosperity.

While this move doesn’t completely eliminate Axne from returning to the political wars, her new position makes it less likely that she will be a candidate in the coming election cycle. Currently, mental health therapist Tracy Limon is the only announced Democratic candidate.

UT-2: Rep. Stewart Resignation Official — Utah Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington) made his resignation statement official with a letter to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) Wednesday. The congressman, leaving office because of his wife’s health condition, will depart on Sept. 15. Making the resignation official now gives Gov. Spencer Cox (R) more scheduling leeway in calling the replacement special election.

Already, former state representative and 2020 US Senate candidate Becky Edwards (R) has announced her candidacy as has state Sen. Kathleen Riebe (D-Cottonwood Heights). Crowded fields are expected for both parties. Republicans have a big advantage here in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+23.

Fox News has reported in association with this story that the Republicans will be down a seat when Stewart departs. This is not accurate. Rhode Island Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence) resigned his seat on June 1, meaning the majority margin will be retained with each party missing one member.

Cities

Denver: Johnston Wins Mayoral Election — Former state Sen. Mike Johnston defeated ex-Chamber of Commerce CEO Kelly Brough by a 55-45 percent margin to win the open Denver mayor’s position on Tuesday night. Johnston previously ran for governor and US senator after leaving the state legislature.

Though the race was ostensibly non-partisan, Johnston aligned with the Democrats while Brough was closer to the Republicans. Campaign spending was about even between the two contenders, but outside liberal organizations came in to tip the financial advantage towards Johnston.

The mayor-elect will take office on July 17. He replaces three-term incumbent Michael Hancock, who was ineligible to seek another term under the new service limit ordinance the city adopted. In fact, Mayor Hancock will be the city’s final three-term chief executive.

Three Enter GOP Presidential Race;
Ex-Iceland Ambassador Prepares Run in Nevada; Will an Upset in New York Hold?; Only 17 Now in RI-1 Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 8, 2023

President

Announcements: Three Enter GOP Presidential Race — Former Vice President Mike Pence (R), ex-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum all declared their presidential campaigns yesterday or are in the process of doing so. None of the three are regarded as top-tier contenders, but things can change in the next months as we head toward the first vote in the Iowa Caucuses on Feb. 5, 2024.

The field now grows to nine candidates, featuring former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, and Pence, Christie, and Burgum.

Senate

Dr. Jeffrey Ross Gunter (R)

Nevada: Ex-Iceland Ambassador Prepares Run — The Nevada Senate race featuring incumbent Jacky Rosen (D) running for a second term should be a top-tier competitive race, but the Republican field has been slow to assemble. Businessman, disabled Afghan War veteran and 2022 Senate candidate Sam Brown is expected to run but has not yet officially entered the race. A new candidate coming on the horizon, Dr. Jeffrey Ross Gunter (R), the former US Ambassador to Iceland in the Trump Administration, is apparently now testing the political waters to enter the race.

Republicans will need a strong candidate to make this race viable. In 2022, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) barely slipped past former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) with a 48.8 – 48.0 percent victory. There is no indication that Laxalt will return for another run next year.

House

NY-17: Rep. Lawler Ahead in Test Polling — One of the biggest 2022 congressional upsets came in upstate New York where then-state Assemblyman Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) defeated Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Sean Patrick Maloney (D). Now, a new EMC Research poll, surveying for the End Citizens United and Let America Vote organizations (May 4-7; 300 likely NY-17 voters; live interview & online) finds Rep. Lawler clinging to a slight 50-48 percent lead over former Congressman Mondaire Jones, in what is expected to be the 2024 candidate lineup.

Jones was elected to the former 17th District in 2018 but moved to New York City to run for re-election from his Westchester County base when Rep. Maloney decided to run in the court-drawn 17th CD has not yet announced he will run but is expected to enter the race. The district leans Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight organization rates the seat D+7 with a Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean topping 56 percent Democratic. Also in the Democratic contest is local school board trustee Liz Gereghty, the sister of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D).

RI-1: Field Drops to 17 — State Rep. Nathan Biah (D-Providence), one of 18 Democratic candidates vying for the congressional seat from which Rhode Island Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence) resigned, is leaving the race. Instead, he will enter the special election to replace the late state Sen. Maryellen Goodwin (D).

Candidate filing continues to progress and will end June 30 for the determinative Sept. 5 Democratic primary. The FiveThirtyEight organization rates RI-1 as D+32 with a Democratic partisan lean score of almost 65 percent Democratic according to the Dave’s Redistricting App data organization.

Pence to Announce Presidential Campaign Today; Sununu Stays Out of Presidential Race; Manchin Running on No Labels Unlikely; Arizona Sen. Kelly Endorses Teran

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 7, 2023

President

Former Vice President Mike Pence (R)

Mike Pence: Files Presidential Campaign Committee — Mike Pence (R), former vice president, Indiana governor, and US congressman, filed his long-awaited presidential campaign committee Monday with the Federal Election Commission and officially announced his campaign today, in Iowa, on his 64th birthday. Though it is difficult to see a path to victory for him with former President Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis dominating most of the early action, Pence will likely be part of the debates and has performed very well on stage when previously tested.

Also expected to announce their own campaigns for the Republican presidential nomination this week are former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.

Gov. Chris Sununu: Won’t Run for President — New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R), saying he understands that a crowded Republican presidential field will renominate former President Donald Trump with 35 percent of the vote, announced Monday in an op-ed column that he will not enter the GOP presidential nomination contest.

Sununu said he believes he can best influence the Republican presidential campaign from the outside in his current position as governor of one of the key early primary states. He made it clear his mission is to deny former President Trump renomination and called on other candidates with no clear path to the nomination to also leave the race.

The governor did not indicate whether he would consider a third-party run for president, or if he will seek a fifth term as governor next year.

No Labels Party: Sen. Joe Manchin Again Sending Signals — In an interview with Shannon Bream on Fox News Sunday, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) was once again sending signals that he might be open to a third-party run for president on the No Labels Party ticket. Such an option probably isn’t viable, however.

During the interview, Sen. Manchin said, “If Plan A shows that we’re going to the far reaches of both sides, the far left and the far right, and the people don’t want to go to the far left and the far right, they want to be governed from the middle.” He further stated in response to Bream asking if he would run as a third-party candidate, that he is “not ruling anything in, not ruling anything out.”

Regardless of what Sen. Manchin may want to do, it is unlikely he will become the No Labels Party presidential nominee. The NLP won’t meet until April 14-15 to choose a candidate, and candidate filing in West Virginia ends in late January. Therefore, Sen. Manchin will need to make a decision about his future prior to New Labels choosing any potential presidential candidate.

House

AZ-3: Sen. Kelly Chooses Candidate — Over the weekend Sen. Mark Kelly (D) indicated that his preferred candidate to replace Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix), who is running against Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I), is former state Senate Minority Leader and ex-Arizona Democratic Party chair Raquel Teran. Four other Democrats are in the race, including Phoenix City Councilwoman Laura Pastor, daughter of former US Rep. Ed Pastor (D), but his relationship with Teran while she guided the Arizona party during his 2022 run for Senate makes her his candidate of choice.

The Phoenix anchored 3rd District is heavily Democratic with a D+44 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization. Therefore, Rep. Gallego’s successor will be decided in the Aug. 6, 2024, Democratic primary, thus making Sen. Kelly’s endorsement valuable.

First GOP Debate Scheduled; Delaware Senate Candidate Queuing Up; House Race News

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 6, 2023

President

2024 Republican presidential debates

Debates: First GOP Debate Scheduled for Aug. 23 — The Republican National Committee has announced that the first 2024 Republican presidential debate will occur on Wednesday, Aug. 23 of this year, at the site of the 2024 Republican National Convention, Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Criteria for participation was also announced.

To be included in the debate, candidates must reach at least one percent support in three independent national polls of at least 800 sampled Republicans taken on or after July 1, 2023, they must have at least 40,000 documented contributors, have a declaration of candidacy statement filed with the Federal Election Commission, and sign various pledges to the RNC, the most important of which is that they will support the eventual Republican presidential nominee.

Senate

Delaware: Rep. Blunt Rochester Preparing Senate Run — The Politico publication reports that at-large US Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington), the individual that retiring Sen. Tom Carper (D) hopes will succeed him, is indeed preparing an official launch of a US Senate campaign. The story indicates that we can expect an announcement sometime later this month.

There has also been no evidence that term-limited Gov. John Carney (D) is about to enter the race. If not, the primary and general election campaigns should be a breeze for Rep. Blunt Rochester, which, for her, would be just like running another re-election campaign. As the state’s sole US House member, she has conducted all four of her House elections as a statewide campaign.

Her move to the Senate race will leave a competitive open House race in her wake. Most of the competition will be in the September 2024 Democratic primary, but seeing a strong Republican emerge may not be out of the question to force a contested general election. At this point, however, expect both the Senate and House seats to remain under Democratic Party control.

House

GA-14: Potential Move to Challenge Rep. Taylor Greene — Right-wing gadfly activist and two-time Florida congressional candidate Laura Loomer (R) is citing an online voluntary response website poll that supposedly reveals 75 percent of respondents who want to see Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) challenged for the 2024 Republican nomination because she supported Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s debt ceiling bill. Loomer characterizes Rep. Greene as a “Primary professional con-woman,” for supporting the debt crisis bipartisan compromise. She also states that she can move to Georgia and run because she has proven herself as a “robust campaign fundraiser.”

While Loomer may well have raised over $3 million for two campaigns, she would need to improve her vote-getting ability in order to unseat Rep. Greene. First, she has already run in two different Florida districts, once against Rep. Lois Frankel (D-West Palm Beach), where she lost by 20 percentage points, and again in a primary challenge against Rep. Dan Webster (R-Clermont/The Villages). In this latter 2022 race, she fell seven percentage points from unseating the Republican incumbent.

PA-10: Ex-Statewide Candidate Won’t Again Challenge Rep. Scott Perry — Former Pennsylvania state auditor and 2020 congressional candidate Eugene DePasquale (D) will not be returning to the federal campaign wars in 2024. Viewed as six-term Rep. Scott Perry’s (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg) toughest possible Democratic opponent – the 2020 race ended 53-47 percent in Rep. Perry’s favor – Pasquale late last week announced that he will return to the statewide theater in an open bid for attorney general.

Rep. Perry already has Democratic opposition for 2024. Shamaine Davis, his 2022 opponent who he defeated 56-44 percent, returns for a re-match. Carlisle School Board member Rick Coplen, a retired Army officer who lost the 2022 Democratic primary to Davis, is also returning to run again. With DePasquale out of the House picture, Rep. Perry, who voted against the McCarthy debt ceiling compromise, will again begin as a favorite for re-election.

More Republicans to Enter Presidential Race; Dodgers Great Garvey Considers Running for Senate; A Democratic House Challenger Switches Up; New Hampshire Gov Candidate Announces

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 5, 2023

President

June 7: Two Announcements — It appears three more Republicans will soon enter the presidential contest, two on the same day. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will announce his 2024 presidential campaign tomorrow, Tuesday, June 6, at a town hall in Manchester, New Hampshire. Former Vice President Mike Pence and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum are reportedly preparing announcements for this Wednesday, June 7, which would expand the official field to nine candidates with others, such as New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu looming as potential candidates.

Senate

Steve Garvey, former LA Dodgers great

California: Baseball Great May Enter Senate Race — Retired Los Angeles Dodger and San Diego Padre Steve Garvey (R) is considering entering the open US Senate race according to a story in the Los Angeles Times. Though Garvey has been retired as a player for 36 years after playing from 1969-1987, he still serves as an expert commentator in Major League Baseball, and his name remains well known in California’s two largest metro areas, Los Angeles and San Diego. For Republicans to have any chance in such a large state, they must begin with a candidate who is already well known.

While any Republican has little chance of winning a California general election, placing first in a crowded all-party jungle primary could be another story. With at least three strong Democrats in the open primary race, Reps. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), Katie Porter (D-Irvine), and Adam Schiff (R-Burbank), a unified minority Republican party coalescing behind a candidate like Steve Garvey would give the retired baseball player a strong chance of placing first in the jungle primary and securing a slot in the general election. This would mean that two of the three prominent House members would be eliminated in the March 5 primary election. This is a developing story.

House

CA-45; 47: One Challenger Switches Races — California Board of Equalization member Mike Schaefer (D), an announced congressional candidate for the 45th District seat that Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) holds, has decided to end his campaign and re-establish it in neighboring District 47, which will be an open seat.

The Democratic side in the Steel district is packed. Garden Grove City Councilwoman Kim Nguyen, and attorneys Cheyenne Hunt, Aditya Pat, and Jimmy Phan are all announced and active candidates. The 47th District, which Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) is vacating to run for Senate, finds state Sen. David Min (D-Irvine), television writer Lori Kirkland Baker, and several minor candidates running.

With Sen. Min’s recent conviction for drunk driving, and ex-Rep. Harley Rouda (D) having to withdraw for health reasons, Schaefer perceives an opening. The eventual November Democratic finalist will likely oppose Republican former state assemblyman and 2022 congressional finalist Scott Baugh. The California all-party jungle primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Governor

New Hampshire: New Democrat Comes Forward for Gov Race ‘24 — New Hampshire Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (D) declared late last week that she will enter the 2024 governor’s race. The Executive Council, unique to New Hampshire, is a five-member elected board that provides a check on the governor’s power. Previously, Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D) announced that she will not seek re-election to her current position and instead filed a gubernatorial exploratory committee.

Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is not expected to seek a fifth two-year term, instead likely moving forward with a presidential bid. Therefore, an open governor’s race would be highly competitive in New Hampshire, which still qualifies as a swing state where either party can sweep a statewide ticket.

Several Republicans have been discussed as gubernatorial possibilities in the event that Sununu does not run. The most prominent in terms of saying he would enter an open race is former State Senate President Chuck Morse, who lost the 2022 US Senate primary by one percentage point.