By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 26, 2023
President
Campaign 2024: States Decide — It is already pretty clear that four states could decide the 2024 presidential election. With the electorate locked in most places either for the Democratic or Republican candidate, voters in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin could be the ultimate deciders in Campaign 2024.
Public Opinion Strategies, polling for the DeSantis presidential campaign, released their latest survey results from three of the four key swing domains, Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.
In each instance the results find Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis leading President Joe Biden, while former President Donald Trump trails the incumbent.
The methodology in each of the three states featured interviews with 500 likely general election voters during the June 17-19 period.
In Arizona, President Biden would lead former President Trump, 45-43 percent. When Gov. DeSantis was tested as the Republican nominee, the race shifted considerably. He would lead the president by six percentage points, 47-41 percent, meaning a net swing of eight points when compared to Trump’s standing.
A similar pattern occurred in Georgia, but not quite as dramatic. The Biden-Trump pairing favored the president, 47-45 percent. Replacing Trump with DeSantis yields a swing toward the Republicans. The Biden-DeSantis match-up favors the Florida governor by a 49-45 percent spread, or a net swing of five percentage points.
The same outcome appears in Pennsylvania. Biden would lead Trump, 48-45 percent, but loses to DeSantis by the same 48-45 percent spread, a net swing of six percentage points.
To win the presidency, the Republicans need to covert states worth a total of 35 electoral votes. These particular polls show the GOP, with DeSantis leading the ticket, as having enough to defeat President Biden, since carrying Arizona (11 electoral votes), Georgia (16), and Pennsylvania (19) would yield the GOP a 46 electoral vote gain, meaning 281 national electoral votes or 11 more than needed to clinch victory.
